Export performance of Sri LankaStatistical Analysis

A interactive Forum “Whither Exports in the next 5 years?”, Organized by The Exporters Association of Sri Lanka25th October 2013

By Subhashini Abeysinghe, Senior Economic AnalystVerité Research Pvt. Ltd.

19

48

19

52

19

56

19

60

19

64

19

68

19

72

19

76

19

80

19

84

19

88

19

92

19

96

20

00

20

04

20

08

20

12

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

Sri Lanka South Korea Malaysia Thailand Viet Nam

Exports from selected East Asian Countries (as a % of World Exports)

Source: World Trade Organization

19701973

19761979

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

20062009

20120

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Malaysia Sri Lanka Thailand Korea, Rep.

Exports as a % of GDP: Comparison with East Asian NICs

Source: World Bank Data

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Bangladesh Vietnam India Sri Lanka Cambodia

Exports As a % of GDP: Comparison with selected developing countries in Asia

Source: World Bank Data

Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-1

1

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Export Growth Import Growth

Sri Lanka: Growth in Exports and Imports by Month

Gha

na

Vie

t Nam

Cam

bod

ia

Ind

ia

Ban

glad

esh

Bra

zil

Sout

h K

orea

Tha

ilan

d

Mal

aysi

a

Chi

le

Pak

ista

n

Sri L

anka

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2002-12 2010-12

Annual Average Export Growth (%)

Source: World Trade Organization

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Agricultural exports Services exportsIndustrial Exports

Composition of Exports (Value USD Mn)

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

Agriculture Services Industry

Composition of Exports (% of GDP)

Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

Industrial Exports (As a % of Total Exports)

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

Agriculture Exports (As a % of Total Exports)

Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports

Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

China India IndonesiaMalaysia Sri Lanka ThailandViet Nam

Textile and Garments as a % of Manufacturing

20032005

20072009

20110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

VT (USD Bn) SL(USD Bn)VT (% of Manu.) SL(% of Manu.)

Garments Exports: Vietnam and Sri LankaValue & % of Manufacturing Exports

Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka

Source: World Trade Organization/Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports

2007 2008 2009 2010250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Persons engaged '000s (L)

No. of establishments (R )

No

of e

stab

lishm

ents

No

of P

erso

ns

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

200250300350400450500550600

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Value (US$ Mn) Quantity (Mn Units)

Us$

Mill

ion

Mill

ion

Uni

ts

Top 5 Products Exported to USA

Top 5 Top 10 Top 15 Top 20

1826

33 3831

4958 62

2002 2012

Leading apparel items exported as a % of Total apparel imports into USA from Sri Lanka (at 6 digit level)

Apparel Sector

Source: Department of Census and Statistics

Employment and Establishments

Source: US International Trade Commission

Agriculture Product Export Growth (%):2002-2012

Volume Value

Tea 10 121

Natural Rubber 1 362

Desiccated Coconut

-16 115

Cinnamon 36 203

Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Volume Mn Kg Price Rs/KgM

illio

n Kg

Rs/K

g

Tea Exports (Price and Volume)

Agricultural Products

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Tea Bags Packets Bulk

Composition of Tea Exports

Perc

enta

ge

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Tea Bags Packets Bulk Instant tea

Average Price (Rs per Kg)

Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics

Agricultural Products

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

100

150

200

250

300

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Labour Force (000' persons)

Daily wages (incl price share and incentive)

000'

Per

sons

Rs per D

ay

Employment and Wages - Plantations

Sri L

anka

Ban

glad

esh

Ind

ia

Ken

ya

Vie

tnam

0

1

2

3

COP (USD/Kg)Productivity (000Kg/ha/yr)

Cost of Production and Productivity- Tea

Source: Statistical Information on Plantation Crops

Agricultural Products

CR(5) CR(10) CR (15)

36

49

59

35

52

61

2005 2012

Product Concentration of Exports at HS 4 digit (% of Total Exports)

Other

Apparel

Petroleum products

Tea

Rubber products

Spices

Diamonds

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

2012 2002

Composition of Exports by Product

Product Concentration

Central Bank Annual Reports and Sri Lanka Customs Statistics

Market Concentration2

00

2

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

05

10152025303540

Asa EU USA Other Asia - India

Direction of Exports (As a % of Total Exports)

CR(5) CR(10) CR(15)

62

7582

51

6674

2005 2012

Market Concentration of Exports (% of Total Exports)

Central Bank Annual Reports and Sri Lanka Customs Statistics

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.10

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

World Exports (USD BN) Share of Sri Lanka

% S

har

e

Valu

e USD

Bn

Commercial Services: Value of World Exports and the Market Share of Sri Lanka

Source: World Trade Organisation

Services Exports

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

IndiaMalaysiaSri LankaViet NamIndonesiaThailand

Exports as a % of Total World Export of Commercial Services

Services Exports

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

IT/BPO Sector

Export Earnings: USD Million

Financial Attractiveness

People, skills and availability

Business Environment

Total Score

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

6

33

44

21

Ranking of Sri LankaGlobal Locations Index 2011

Overal rank

Environmental sustainability

Tourism infrastructure

ICT infrastructure

Availability of qualified labor

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

74

119

108

116

112

Travel and Tourism Competitiveness IndexRank out of 140 countries (2013)

Services Exports

Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports & Export Development Board

Source of Export GrowthIntensive Margin or Extensive Margin?

40096123033853118985212008874424958463397162

-8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0

Shift in Product Composition: 2005 & 2012 (Change as a % of Exports): HS Description

62 Apparel – not Knitted or crocheted71 Precious stones39 Plastics/articles thereof63 Made up textile articles84 Machinery and parts95 Toys, games, sports equip.24 Tobacco, manufac. Tobacco44 Wood and articles thereof87 Vehicle spare parts

08 Coconuts/fruits20 Preparations vegetables, fruits

21 Misc. edible preparations85 Electrical machinery and parts89 Ships, boats11 Milling industry products

53 Veg. textile fibers38 Misc. chemical products03 Fish23 Residues from food indus/animal feed

61 Apparel – Knitted or crocheted09 Tea and spices40 Rubber and articles thereof

Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics

89

23

11

85

40

53

03

09

24

63

61

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Annual Average Growth (%) : 2006 - 2012

HS Description

39 Plastics/articles thereof61 Apparel – not Knitted or crocheted71 Precious stones63 Made up textile articles95 Toys, games, sports equip.61 Apparel – Knitted or crocheted24 Tobacco, manufac. Tobacco09 Tea and spices87 Vehicle spare parts03 Fish44 Wood and articles thereof53 Veg. textile fibers84 Machinery and parts40 Rubber and articles thereof08 Coconuts/fruits

85 Electrical machinery and parts38 Misc. chemical products11 Milling industry products20 Preparations vegetables, fruits

23 Residues from food indus/animal feed21 Misc. edible preparations49 Printed books, papers, pictures89 Ships, boats

Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics

Source of Export GrowthIntensive Margin or Extensive Margin?

ITALY

BELGIUM

IRAQ

INDNSIA

GERMANY

LIBYA

AUSTRAL

MEXICO

THAILND

SWEDEN

PAKISTN

HG KONG

NETHLDS

SU.ARAB

JAPAN

SNGAPOR

U.KING.

U.S.A.

-10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0

Change in Direction of Exports: 2005 &2012

AZERBAIJAIN

MALAYSIA

IRAQ

CHINA

SWEDEN

TURKEY

SWITZERLAND

MALDIVES

MEXICO

HONG KONG

AUSTRALIA

CANADA

GERMENY

NETHERLANDS

U.A.E.

FRANCE

TOTAL

INDIA

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Average Export Growth (2005-2012)

Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics

Source of Export GrowthIntensive Margin or Extensive Margin?

Thailand Vietnam India Pakistan Sri Lanka 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

As

a %

of T

otal

Exp

orts

Exports to Selected Asian Countries (China, S. Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore)

Exports to Asia

Source: www.trademap.org

Exports from Sri Lanka: Shrinking Share in a Growing Market

Time Taken to Double World Exports

USD Trillion

1979-1991

1991-2003

2003-2008

2-4 4-8 8-16

13 Years 13 Years 6 Years

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

0.00%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

0.05%

0.06%

0.07%

0.08%

0.09%

0.10%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

World Exports Share of Sri Lanka

% S

har

e of

Sri

Lan

ka

World

Export V

alue U

SD T

N

World Export Value of Merchandise Exports and World Market Share of Sri Lanka

?

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Agriculture products Clothing

Share of Agricultural Products and Clothing Exports in World Exports

Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets?

Source: World Trade Organisation

Source: Key Trends in International Merchandise Trade, UNCTAD, 2013

Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets?

19701973

19761979

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

20062009

20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Developed economies Developing economies Developing economies: Asia

Share of World Imports

Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets?

Source: UNCTAD International Trade Statistics

Thank You!