Exploring the

Science of Complexity

Exploring the Science of Complexity in Aid Policy and PracticeODI, London9th July 2008

Policy Processes

Identify the problem

Commission research

Analyse the results

Choose the best option

Establish the policy

Evaluation

Implement the policy

Monitoring and Evaluation

Agenda Setting

DecisionMaking

Policy Implementation

Policy Formulation

Policy Processes

Civil Society

DonorsAffected

Legislative

Ministries

Private Sector

Complexity science• A loosely bound collection of ideas,

principles and influences from– fractal geometry – cybernetics– complex adaptive systems– postmodernism– systems thinking– chaos theory

• Discovery of similar patterns, processes and relationships in a wide variety of phenomena– related to the nature and dynamics of change

• Some fantastic images

Chemical reactions…

Genetics and cells…

How the brain works…

Animal populations and social structures…

Human settlements…

Global financial markets...

The formation of cyclones...

The evolution of galaxies...

Efforts to apply ideas• Arthur, Ormerod - Economics• Stacey, Mitleton-Kelly, Snowden -

Organisations• Jervis, Urry, Cutler - Intl relations• De Mancha - History• Gilchrist - Community development• Education policy - Sanders and

McCabe• Health policy - Zimmerman• Government reform - Chapman• Strategic thinking - Saunders

In aid and development...• Uphoff, 1990s• Chambers, 1997• Sellamna, 1999 • IDRC, Outcome Mapping, 2001• Warner, 2001• Rihani, 2002• Lansing and Miller, 2003• Inclusive Aid, 2004• ECDPM, 2004-06• Eyben, 2006• Guijt, various• Davies, Network Analysis, various

Questions remain...• What do we mean when we say

“complexity science”

• How can the concepts be utilised in aid policy and practice?

• What practical methods enable the concepts to be utilised?

• What implications are there?

Today we have...• Leading thinkers in complexity

– Eve Middleton-Kelly; Ralph Stacey

• Complexity science and development– Ben Ramalingam; Robert Chambers; Chris

Mowles

• “Open space” on methods– Rick Davies; Vicky Cosstick; Sean Lowrie;

Simon Hearn and Harry Jones; Enrique Mendizabal

• “Peer assist” on applications– Plan International; Tearfund; Vietnam

Academy; IDS