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DEGREE PROJECT IN INDUSTRIAL MANAGEMENT, SECOND CYCLE, 15 CREDITS

STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN 2018

Exploring the Potential of Renewable

Energy in Telecommunications

Industry

MARIAM JARAHNEJAD

ALI ZAIDI

KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

SCHOOL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT

Exploring the Potential of Renewable Energy in

Telecommunications Industry

by

Mariam Jarahnejad

Ali Zaidi

Master of Science Thesis INDEK TRITA-ITM-EX 2018:352

KTH Industrial Engineering and Management

Industrial Management

SE-100 44 STOCKHOLM

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Master of Science Thesis INDEK TRITA-ITM-EX 2018:352

Exploring the Potential of Renewable Energy in

Telecommunications Industry

Mariam Jarahnejad

Ali Zaidi

Approved

2018-June-13

Examiner

Terrence Brown

Supervisor

Vladimir Koutcherov

Commissioner

Contact person

Abstract

Renewable energy sources have started to substitute traditional energy sources in power

sector, heating/cooling sector, and transportation sector. This paper explores the potential of

renewable energy (mainly solar and wind) in Information and Communication Technologies

(ICT) industry. The focus is on mobile telecommunication infrastructure segment, since it is a

prime consumer of energy within the ICT industry. Moving towards solar or wind power

sources might bring a major shift in the ICT industry – both on the technological level as well

as the service provisioning level. An overview of innovative technological solutions for

solar/wind powered telecom networks is provided with a discussion on technological feasibility

of innovative standalone solar/wind powered base stations. The market value of these

innovative solutions as well as potential power savings are estimated in the total addressable

market, the potential market, and the real market. The industry attractiveness of the innovation

solutions is assessed using the Porter’s five forces and SWOT frameworks. Furthermore, these

innovative solutions are assessed for their potential diffusion likelihood in different scenarios.

There are several potential driving forces for the transformation towards solar/wind powered

telecom networks. Based on the most important driving forces, plausible scenarios of the future

have been identified and analyzed. It is identified that the renewable energy driven

transformation in the ICT industry can affect developments in other industries such as

automotive, agriculture, healthcare, and transportation industries.

Keywords:

Renewables in ICT, Porters’ Five forces, ICT Plausible scenarios, Diffusion of renewables in

ICT analysis

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Contents

1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 8

1.1. Background ................................................................................................................ 8

1.2. Research Questions ................................................................................................... 9

1.3. Delimitation.............................................................................................................. 10

1.4. Research Structure .................................................................................................. 10

2. Literature Review ........................................................................................................... 11

2.1. An Overview of RE and ICT sectors ..................................................................... 11

2.2. Energy Consumption in ICT Sector ...................................................................... 14

2.3. ICT Segments........................................................................................................... 16

2.4. Telecom Networks Powered by Solar/Wind Energy ............................................ 16

3. Theoretical Framework ................................................................................................. 19

3.1. External Business Environment ............................................................................. 19

3.1.1. Diffusion of Innovation Analysis .................................................................... 19

3.1.2. Porter’s Five forces .......................................................................................... 21

3.2. Internal Business Environment.............................................................................. 21

3.2.1. SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................ 21

4. Methodology .................................................................................................................... 21

4.1. Research Paradigm ................................................................................................. 21

4.2. Research Method and Data Collection .................................................................. 22

4.3. Ethical and Sustainability Issues ........................................................................... 22

5. Technological Feasibility of Standalone Solar Powered Base Stations ..................... 23

6. Market Value Assessments ............................................................................................ 26

6.1. Market Values ......................................................................................................... 26

6.2. Power Savings .......................................................................................................... 29

7. Business Analysis ............................................................................................................ 30

7.1. Porters’ Five Forces for network vendors ............................................................ 30

7.2. SWOT Analysis for Network Vendors .................................................................. 33

8. Diffusion of Innovation Analysis ................................................................................... 34

9. Plausible scenarios .......................................................................................................... 38

9.1. Driving Forces for Transformation in Telecom Networks due to Renewables . 38

9.2. Plausible Scenarios of the Future .......................................................................... 41

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9.1. Technology Push vs Market Pull ........................................................................... 42

9.2. Industries Co-evolve with RE driven ICT Development ..................................... 43

10. Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 45

10.1. Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 45

10.2. Limitations ........................................................................................................... 47

10.3. Future Research ................................................................................................... 47

11. References .................................................................................................................... 49

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Table of figures

Figure 1: Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Global Final Energy Consumption, 2017 .. 12

Figure 2:Global investments in renewable energy in 2016 ..................................................... 12

Figure 3: Solar and wind power generation worldwide between 2005-2015 .......................... 13

Figure 4: Roadmap to 5G telecom systems ............................................................................. 14

Figure 5: Estimated carbon emission in 2020 in ICT sector by two different studies ............. 15

Figure 6 Carbon emission of off-grid base stations, all base stations in 2015......................... 15

Figure 7: Different ways of powering cellular base stations ................................................... 17

Figure 8: Number of solar powered base stations worldwide.................................................. 17

Figure 9: World Solar Map ...................................................................................................... 18

Figure 10: World Wind Map.................................................................................................... 18

Figure 11: Utilization and corresponding network energy consumption for different traffic

loads ......................................................................................................................................... 24

Figure 12: Fundamental tradeoffs between network energy/power efficiency and other

communication network parameters (deployment efficiency, bandwidth efficiency, spectral

efficiency, and delay efficiency). ............................................................................................. 25

Figure 13 Total cost of ownership calculated for four different BS solutions based on type of

their power sources .................................................................................................................. 27

Figure 14 The total addressable market ................................................................................... 28

Figure 15 The value of total market, potential market, and real market. ................................. 29

Figure 16 Estimated power savings due to RE powered base stations in the total addressable

market, the potential market, and the real market .................................................................... 30

Figure 17: Scenario Matrix for the demand of renewable energy powered base stations ....... 41

Figure 18: An analysis of technology push vs market pull for telecom networks powered by

renewables................................................................................................................................ 43

Figure 19: The industries have interdependencies and potential to co-evolve ........................ 45

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Glossary of Key Terms

5G Fifth generation

BS Base station

CAPEX Capital expenditure

CESC Center for Sustainable Communications

ETNO European Telecommunications Network Operators' Association.

GeSI Global e-Sustainability Initiative

GSM Global system for mobile communication

ICT Information and Communication Technologies

IoT Internet of Things

LTE Long Term Evaluation

MNO Mobile network operator

OPEX Operating expenditure

RE Renewable energy

TCO Total cost of ownership

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Acknowledgement

It is our pleasure to thank those who have made this thesis possible. Foremost, we are grateful

to our thesis supervisor, Prof. Vladimir Koutcherov, for giving valuable ideas, interesting

directions, and support. Moreover, we would also like to thank Prof. Terrence Brown, Prof.

Gregg Vanourek, Mr. Serdar Temiz, and Mr. Ricardo Queiros. for providing guidance and

support at different stages. We are also indebted to Mr. Ioannis Ntalianis (the formal discussant)

for providing constructive feedback that helped to improve quality of the report. This study

was initiated in the course ME2093 Technological and Industrial Change, with Mr. Cem

Aydede as one of the co-contributors and was developed further based on valuable feedback

from Prof. Cali Nuur. Thank you all!

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1. Introduction

We are living in an era that climate crisis is one of the greatest threat for mankind. Human’

activities disrupt the balance in nature and atmosphere. Despite considerable technical

development in recent decades, not only we couldn’t overcome the global warming problem,

but it is also accelerated due to increasing energy demand. Most of the power generated in the

world still comes from the fossil fuels (Sterling, 2008). In late 1960s, the total global power

generation from the fossil fuel was 94% and it was decreased to 80% in 2014. Nevertheless,

fossil fuel still has a big share in power generation as well as heating up the earth (IEA, 2018).

Energy cost along with climate change and air pollution are among the main concerns for the

human generation in 21st century. In addition, fossil fuel resources aren’t infinite and never-

end energy resources. Accordingly, fossil fuel depletion is another threat for the global

economy and energy sector. Investing on greener solutions and using better technologies are

ways to decrease energy consumption and meet our energy needs. Most of the required

electricity is provided by electricity grid coming from fossil fuel power plants. Power

generation devices can apply renewables as a clean and inexpensive source of energy that not

only can mitigate the climate change but also can change the world. Bruce Sterling (2008) in

the book of World Changing states that “a world of solar-powered village is a world of less

poverty and greater climatic stability.”

Renewable energies are hot trend due to increase of environmental problems and as well as

high price rate of fossil fuels in recent decades. Many studies are done to investigate the

possibility of renewable energy application in different segments. ICT is a fast-developing

sector and electricity usage in this sector has an important role in both cost and environmental

concerns.

1.1. Background

Renewable energy refers to energy obtained from renewable resources, such as sunlight, wind,

waves, rain, biomass, and geothermal heat. The resources are renewable in the sense that are

constantly replenished. The energy derived from renewable sources is environmental friendly

unlike the conventional energy resources (coal, gas, oil, uranium). The renewable resources are

therefore also often termed as green resources.

Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and Renewable Energy (RE) sectors are

experiencing massive growth, with tremendous future potential. ICT industry is striving to

connect everyone and everything, by deploying advanced global telecommunication

infrastructure and developing variety of devices (smartphones, tablets, sensors, actuators)

capable of connecting to this infrastructure anywhere and anytime. Worldwide connectivity

would result in the so-called Networked Society – a society that would empower people and

industries to achieve their true potential. On the other hand, the energy sector is striving to

harness the benefits of renewable energy to address the important issues related to climate

change, environmental pollution, and cost-efficiency. There is a global movement for 100%

renewable energy, with the vision of creating a Green Society (Ren21, 2016). Huge investments

have been made in renewables by public and private sectors in recent years, however, the

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renewable energy sector is still in its infancy. At the same time developing ICT can address the

problem with carbon emission and climate change.

So far, the major developments ICT and RE industries have little correlation. RE sector has

mostly focused on electricity generation (urban and rural), transportation, and air/water

temperature regulation. It is interesting to note that ICT systems currently contribute to 0.5%

of world’s carbon emissions (Ike et al., 2014). In future, a fully Networked Society would

connect billions of devices with millions of base stations, making it critical to address the

carbon emissions within the ICT sector. Renewable energy can be fundamental way of

overcoming this challenge (Chamola, Sikdar, 2016). The potential benefits of renewables

within ICT are not limited to environmental aspects only. In fact, a major challenge the telecom

industry faces today is network coverage in remote and far-flung areas with no access to

electricity grid. To realize a fully functional Networked Society, ubiquitous network access is

essential and renewable energy can be a viable way to provide that. There can also be economic

benefits, e.g., reducing operational cost of telecom infrastructure.

In this paper, we carry out an explorative research to understand the potential of renewable

energy in the telecommunication industry. We particularly analyze the potential of innovative

telecommunication networks powered by solar/wind power systems. Brief discussions on

utilization of solar energy for mobile communications can be found in (Smertnik, 2014)

(Fehske et al., 2011). Solar powered mobile base stations have been analyzed from

technological standpoint in (Ike et al., 2014) (Pande, 2009). Status and challenges associated

with solar powered base stations are discussed in (Chamola and Sikdar, 2016). It is discussed

in (Pande, 2009) that solar/wind powered base stations can be either grid-connected, hybrid or

standalone. Around 10,000 base stations today are partially powered by renewable energy, i.e.,

grid-connected or hybrid systems (Chamola, Sikdar, 2016). To deploy fully standalone

solar/wind power base stations, the system energy efficiency must be significantly improved.

The fundamental technical challenges, possible solutions and approaches to improve energy

efficiency of mobile networks are presented in (Ericsson White Paper, 2015), (Buzzi et al.,

2016), (Auer et al., 2011), (Chen et al., 2011).

1.2. Research Questions

In this thesis, we explore the potential of RE in the ICT industry. More specifically, we focus

on the mobile communication infrastructure which is the main source of energy consumption

in the ICT segment. We study innovative RE powered telecom base stations and analyze the

potential and impact of these solution from technology, business, and social perspective. More

specifically, we address the following sub-questions along with the main research questions:

1. Is the innovation (RE powered telecom base station) technologically feasible?

2. What is the estimated market value of the innovation and the potential power

savings with the innovation?

3. Is there business potential for the innovation?

4. Identify which innovation enabler(s) is promising in which scenario from the

diffusion perspective?

5. What are plausible future scenarios and possible future impact of the innovation?

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1.3. Delimitation

There are two main areas for energy consumptions in telecom industry: telecom infrastructure

and mobile devices and terminals. Most of the energy is consumed by the telecom

infrastructure. Thus, telecom infrastructure is chosen for exploring potential of RE using in

telecom industry.

Two types of RE resources are considered in this study: solar and wind power. The readiness

assessment of the other RE resources in ICT can be also interesting but due to time constraint,

this research is limited to analysis of solar and wind power.

The technical aspects of telecom base stations and RE are not studied deeply. A high-level

assessment is provided.

This study does not focus on some relevant issues such as regional availability of RE, specific

strategy plans for different companies and fluctuation of fossil fuel prices.

1.4. Research Structure

There are different frameworks to analysis the influential factors on success of an industry. For

this study, Porter’s Five Forces is applied along with the SWOT analysis to assess the internal

and external environment of ICT industry using RE as energy source.

Rate of diffusion of innovation is also studied. To understand the potential of innovative

solar/wind powered telecom networks, this paper digs into the driving forces for the

transformation, rate of diffusion of these innovative solutions, identifying plausible future

scenarios, and co-developments in other related industries driven by transformation in the

telecom networks through renewables. Particularly, this paper makes following six

contributions:

1. Review the technological feasibility of standalone solar/wind powered telecom base

stations (cf. Chapter 5).

2. Estimate the market value of the innovative RE powered telecom base stations as well

as the potential power savings (cf. Chapter 6).

3. Using Porters’ Five Forces and SWOT frameworks, analyze industry attractive and

business potential of the innovative RE powered telecom base stations (cf. Chapter 7).

4. Identify driving forces for the transformation of telecom networks towards utilization

of renewable power sources (cf. Chapter 8). Our assessment relies on self-

argumentation as well as on published articles, technical reports, and technology

magazines.

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5. Identify the rate of diffusion of each innovative solar/wind powered technological

solution (standalone, hybrid, grid-connected) in four different cases (e.g., rural/urban

areas with/without access to reliable/unreliable electricity). That is, identify which

innovative solution is most promising for which case (cf. Chapter 8). Our analysis is

based on the theory innovation diffusion given in (Rogers, 2010), which discusses that

five factors are crucial for diffusion of an innovation: complexity, relative advantage,

compatibility, trialability, and observability.

6. Looking at the key driving forces for renewable power-based transformation in telecom

networks, we forecast plausible future scenarios and their consequences (cf. chapter 9).

Our scenario analysis is based on the approach given in (Tidd and Bessant, 2009).

7. Discuss whether solar/wind powered telecom networks would be a consequence of

technology push or market or both, and what are the relevant driving forces for each

(cf. Chapter 9);

8. Identify, which other industries can co-evolve with the telecommunications industry if

telecom networks adopt renewable power sources (cf. Chapter 9).

The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Chapter 2 provides an overview of RE and ICT

sectors, along with various innovative technological options for solar/wind powered telecom

networks and the associated technological challenges. Chapter 3 identifies the theatrical

framework is applied to answer the research questions. Chapter 4 explains the research

methodology briefly. A brief technical explanation is written in Chapter 5. In chapter 6, we

estimated the potential market value of RE powered telecom infrastructure the potential power

savings. Chapter 8 discusses diffusion of possible technological innovations in various

scenarios. Chapter 9 identifies driving forces for the transformation of telecom base stations

towards renewable power sources. Furthermore, Chapter 9 analyzes plausible scenarios of the

future based on the key driving forces. In this chapter market push vs technology push is

analyzed as well. Finally, Chapter 10 concludes the thesis.

2. Literature Review

2.1. An Overview of RE and ICT sectors

In this section, we briefly review RE and ICT sectors and discuss the current role of RE in

telecom networks and associated technological challenges.

Status of RE sector: As per the 2016’s global status report (Ren21, 2016), renewable energy

contributed to an estimated 19.2% of global final energy consumption in 2014 (cf. Figure 1).

Figure 2 shows global investments in renewable power in 2015 – the investments in both wind

and solar power have increased 4% and 12% in 2015 compared to 2014. Figure 3 depicts

worldwide power generation through solar and wind resources between 2005-2015, showing

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constant growth in both sectors. The solar power has seen significantly faster growth in recent

years compared to wind.

Figure 1: Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Global Final Energy Consumption, 2017

(Source: Renewable 2017, Global Status Report)

Figure 2:Global investments in renewable energy in 2016

(Source: Renewable 2017, Global Status Report)

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Figure 3: Solar and wind power generation worldwide between 2005-2015

(Source: Renewable 2016, Global Status Report)

State of Telecommunication Sector: The Information and Communication Technology sector

was born in the 20th century out of two major industries – the telecommunication industry and

the computing industry. The ICT industry has undergone tremendous change in 21st century

with the emergence and widespread access to internet. The first commercial phone was

deployed in 1950s and 1960s (Farley, 2005). Mobile cellular communication started in early

1980s and since then the cellular technology has undergone major transformation every decade.

In 1981, the First Generation (1G) mobile cellular standard was developed and deployed, based

analog communication concept and technology. The first digital cellular technology – Second

Generation (2G), also known as GSM – was deployed in 1991. The Third Generation (3G) was

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deployed in 2001, followed by the latest 4G technology (also known as LTE), which is

available since 2010. So far, with every new generation of cellular technology we have great

improvements in new types of services (data, voice, internet), quality of services (speed,

coverage, reliability), and cost. The next big step is 5G cellular technology which will be

operational by 2020. Figure 4 summarizes the evolution from 1G to 5G mobile

communications.

Figure 4: Roadmap to 5G telecom systems

2.2. Energy Consumption in ICT Sector

ICT consumes 1.15% of total electricity grid supply. It is estimated that the total annual

operational electricity consumption for ICT is 242 TWh in 2015. This includes both on-site

generated electricity (27 TWh) and grid electricity (215 TWh). Moreover, the global

operational carbon emitted by ICT sector in 2015 is around 169 M tonnes CO2e. This is

equivalent to 0.53% of the whole carbon emission by energy sector (32 G tonnes) and 0.34%

of global carbon emission (50 G tonnes) in 2015 (Malmodin J., 2018). The electricity

consumption in ICT network augmented by 31% from 2010 to 2015. This includes 185 TWh

increase in 5 years which is corresponding 1% of the total electricity grid supply. The

operational carbon emission growth has been 17% for this period (Malmodin, 2018).

By introducing the 5G in near future (2020), the rate of energy consumption increase is going

to become even greater. Figure 5 illustrate the energy consumption trend predicted by two

different studies. Both studies depict increasing trend in CO2 emission at ICT industry

However, the new estimate done based on the data from 2010-2015 shows that this growth is

not as big as SMARTer predicted in 2011(GeSI, 2012).

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Figure 5: Estimated carbon emission in 2020 in ICT sector by two different studies

(Source: KTH Centre for Sustainable Communications)

Figure 6 demonstrates the annual carbon emission for base stations in comparisons with all

base global carbon emission by the year 2015. The information was derived from the report

done at KTH Centre for Sustainable Communications by Malmodin (2018). The figure more

specifically illustrates that carbon emission for all off-grid base station was 25Mtonnes in 2015.

Figure 6 Carbon emission of off-grid base stations, all base stations in 2015

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2.3. ICT Segments

Within ICT industry, there are two main segments:

1- Telecom infrastructure, i.e., telecom networks comprised of base stations and access points

that provide connectivity to devices (human-centric or machine-centric)

2- Mobile devices/terminals, that are communicate by connecting to the infrastructure (e.g.,

mobile phones, tablets, sensors, actuators, vehicles, drones, etc.)

In future, billions of devices/terminals will be connected to millions of base stations. Although

both segments (network infrastructure as well as devices/terminals) would benefit from

renewable energy, the role of renewable energy is much greater in the network segment due to

the following reasons:

• Energy consumption of base stations (telecom infrastructure) is much greater than

energy consumption of devices/terminals.

• Ubiquitous network coverage is important to realize the envisioned networked society

and internet of things

• Base stations have larger size and are expensive. It is affordable to integrate a renewable

energy system with each base station. It is unrealistic to assume integrated of a

standalone renewable energy system with each device that is small size and have low

CAPEX.

• Base stations need reliable and continuous power provision unlike devices (e.g., mobile

phones) that can be charged whenever power is available.

Hence, this paper focuses on the role of renewable energy in the telecom infrastructure

segment.

2.4. Telecom Networks Powered by Solar/Wind Energy

There can be three ways of integration of renewable energy systems with telecom base stations

(Pande, 2009):

A. Standalone: Telecom base station is solely dependent on renewable power supplies

(e.g., wind or solar).

B. Grid-connected: Telecom base station has access to both renewable energy as well as

electricity grid as a back-up.

C. Hybrid: Telecom base station is powered by the combination of renewables and non-

renewables (e.g., diesel), and/or electricity grid.

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It is worthwhile to state that a battery backup unit installed in the base stations to compensate

any power outage. Thus, any of mentioned ways to use renewable energy source will be also

supported by a battery backup unit. Figure 7 shows these different categories.

Figure 7: Different ways of powering cellular base stations

There are less than 10,000 base stations operating on solar power as hybrid or grid-connected

worldwide (a very small fraction of the total number) (Ren21, 2016). Currently, standalone

systems are not operational since solar power alone is not sufficient to meet energy demands

of base stations. Figure 8 shows the geographic distribution of the solar-powered base stations

(grid-connected or hybrid).

Figure 8: Number of solar powered base stations worldwide

(Sources: Chamola and Sikdar, 2016)

The ability of harvesting energy on sunlight exposure, which varies geographically. Figure 9,

shows insolation rates (in terms of KWh/m2) on land areas worldwide. Vast areas in Asia,

Africa, Australia, and America have medium to high insolation rates. In low insolation

geographical regions, the utilization of standalone solar powered systems could be limited

considering that a larger surface area would be required. There are two main ways of harvesting

solar power: photo-voltaic systems and thermal collectors. Photo-voltaic system collects solar

directly, whereas thermal energy collectors heat a fluid as an intermediate step.

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Figure 9: World Solar Map

(Source: Worly Parsons – Economics (Clerke, 2011)

Similarly, the potential of wind power varies geographical. Figure 10 shows average speeds of

wind in different geographic regions. Comparing the wind power map to the solar map, it is

obvious that different regions different potential for solar and wind powered telecom networks.

Figure 10: World Wind Map

(Source:(3Tier, 2011))

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3. Theoretical Framework

This section provides a brief review of the theoretical frameworks used in the thesis. These

frameworks help to address the research questions.

All businesses work within an external and internal environment that form their actions and

decisions. Thus, organizations and industries require evaluating the environment they are

operating in. It plays an important role in how the organizations design their future strategies.

3.1. External Business Environment

Although business organizations vary in different ways, there are many common external

features that influence the business activities. This external environment is volatile, intricate

and interactive that cannot be neglected in a business activity analysis. It includes a wide range

of economic, social, demographic legal, political and technical impacts. (Ian Worthington,

Chris Britton, 2009)

3.1.1. Diffusion of Innovation Analysis

In this report, “Diffusion of Innovation” theory is used to analyze the reasons behind the

success and failure of an innovation in multiple situations and systems. This theory may further

be applied to predict diffusion of the new technology in a social system. Diffusion of innovation

is a theory that initially developed by Everett Rogers, a professor in communication studies by

the year 1962. He states “diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated over

time among the participants in a social system. The origins of the diffusion of innovations

theory are varied and span multiple disciplines”. (Rogers, 2003)

Individuals and organizations show uncertainty to a new idea. Thus, the process of acceptance

and adoption to an innovative idea plays an important role. Otherwise, the innovation can’t

make a difference. Diffusion of innovation is a complex process and does not happens at the

same extent or degree in each country and company. According to Rogers, there are five main

factors which impact on spreading a new idea: innovation, adopter, time, communication

channels and social systems. (Rogers, 1962). Sirwannawit and Laestaduis simplified diffusion

process to three-component-model including source, innovation and adopter. (Sirwannawit,

Laestaduis, 2015)

Innovation:

Schumpeter, an economist researcher who firstly introduced innovation and entrepreneurship

concept, states “innovation is a creative destructive idea that destroys old products, methods,

markets and form of organizations” (Schumpeter, 1942).

Innovation is the most important key in diffusion process. The accessibility of the new

technology or idea cannot guarantee success of its diffusion in a system. Rate of diffusion of

an innovation in each system depends on to what extent the characteristics of this new

idea/technology are perceived by the individuals in a system. Relative advantage,

compatibility, complexity, trialability and observability are characteristics of innovations that

helps to determine rate of adoption.

• Relative advantage

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It illustrates the privilege of a new product/service for the customer in competition with other

existing options. If an innovation does not have any advantage, the potential user will be

reluctant to adopt it. Relative advantage is considered mostly as an economic turnover.

However, social factors like prestige, quality, satisfaction and environmental awareness are the

elements that impact on people’s perception of relative advantage of an innovation.

(Greenhalgh et al, 2004)

• Compatibility

It explains to what extent a venture is close and fitted within current values, past experiences

and needs of potential users. If an innovation does not meet the requirements of a targeted

system, the chance of adoption is not high.

• Complexity

It is about perception of a user from complication of an innovation. If the user finds an

innovation difficult to learn and apply, then it is highly probable that the innovation adoption

rate decreases. (Kai-ming Au, Enderwick, 1999) (Labay, Kinnear, 1981) (Völlnik et al, 2002)

• Trialability

When there is a possibility for the user to try and experiment the innovation, the rate of adoption

increases. (Makse, Volden, 2011) (Rogers, 2003)

• Observability

If users can easily see results and benefits of an innovation, they will adopt the innovation more

quickly. (J Tidd, 2009)

These characteristics interacts and should be investigated together. For instance, an innovation

might be difficult to learn but it might have a high relative advantage. Despite of the

complexity, the user might adopt it anyway. (Rogers, 1962) However, not all the innovations

are useful and necessarily to be accepted. Some innovations are favorable in some social

systems, but it may not be desirable for other systems or individuals in different situations.

Sources

Individuals, institutions, industries and organizations can be sources of diffusions and the

diffusion process initiates from them. In fact, they are the change agents that can influence the

decision of potential users. (Blomkvist, Johansson, 2016). Common source of diffusion are

firms, policy measures and previous adaptors.

Adopter

Individuals, institution and organizations that decide to take an innovation are called adopters.

(Meyer, 2004) Rate of adoption is the speed that users adopt an innovation and it is measured

based on the time that takes different participant in a system to adopt it. (Rogers, 1962). Those

who adopt an innovation first have higher rate of adoption and shorter adoption process than

those who adopt late.

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3.1.2. Porter’s Five forces

Porter’s five factor is a simple and efficient framework to study the competitiveness of a

business environment. It helps to adjust business strategy and maximize the profitability.

Understanding the forces that can influence the business context will help the venture to avoid

taking wrong decisions and steps and improve the weak points and ensure the long-term success

and strong position of the business in future. (Porter, 2008)

Porter five forces consist of three forces from competition: threat of substitutes

products/services, threat of existing competitors and threat of new entrants. Two other forces

are bargaining power of suppliers and buyers.

3.2. Internal Business Environment

Interaction between external and internal environment of an industry is important in study of

business organization. Internal environment of a business includes the key aspects that effect

on the success of the business within the company. These factors are related to organization’s

structure and functions within the enterprise. Organizations can use different type of techniques

from qualitative approaches to quantitative measurements to analysis the business

environment. SWOT analysis is one of the well-known techniques applied to assess the key

internal and external factors in the industry/market quickly.

3.2.1. SWOT Analysis

SWOT analysis helps to discover new opportunities as well as manage and remove the threats.

(Gurel, Tat, 2017) It stands for strength, weakness, opportunity and threats. SWOT analysis

categorized in two groups:

1. Internal factors: the strength and weaknesses inside the organization

2. External factors: the opportunities and threats by the external environment

4. Methodology

The applied methodology to answer the research questions is illustrated in this chapter. The

research paradigm is described first and then the research method and data gathering are

explained.

4.1. Research Paradigm

The research paradigm is an approach that illustrates how the study is done and how the

researcher verifies knowledge. The research paradigms mostly come out from one of the two

main paradigms called positivist approach and interpretivism approach. Every researcher

applies one of these paradigms as a guideline to develop research methodology and carry out

the research in a most appropriate manner (Stephen K. Antwi, 2015) . Positivism is applied in

a scientific or quantitative research as a conceptual framework for the research. It relies on

quantitative and objective data to reach to a conclusion. Unlike, the interpretivism paradigm

22

drives from subjectivity and studying human behavior in a daily life. Most of the qualitative

research in social sciences apply interpretivism approach to perform a research.

In this study the interpretivism approach is used to analyze the external and internal business

environment and positivism approach is applied to explore the potential of RE in ICT industry.

In other words, this study is explorative and carried out based on both qualitative and

quantitative research data to answer the research questions. Literature review with reference to

renewable energy, ICT future trend and energy consumption propelled us toward qualitative

approach for doing SWOT and Porters’ five Forces analyses along with investigating diffusion

of RE in ICT. In other words, literature review helped us to find out that the most appropriate

way to assess the business environment of the ICT powered by RE is applying qualitative

approach in this report. However, we decide to use quantitative approach based on secondary

data to explore the potential of RE using in ICT. A quantitative approach based on primary

data is seemed too intricate and beyond the time scale of this report. Thus, we apply the most

appropriate facts and statistics from existing data and references to do market assessment.

4.2. Research Method and Data Collection

This is an explorative research using qualitative and quantitative methods based on the

secondary data. Secondary data is a data which is already prepared and gathered by other

sources. We primarily make use of published technology articles, business reviews, white

papers, journals, and internet searches. These sources are available on-line.

The quantitative part of our research includes estimating market value and the potential of

power savings with respect to innovative the RE powered telecom infrastructure.

The qualitative part of our research includes understanding technology readiness of the

innovative solutions with the help of existing literature; analyzing industry attractiveness of the

innovation using established frameworks such as Porter’s five forces model and SWOT

analysis; analyzing the diffusion of innovation through an established theoretical framework

(Rogers, 2010), and drawing future plausible scenarios with the help of identifying driving

forces (based on the secondary sources) for the RE driven transformation and considering the

potential impact on different industries.

4.3. Ethical and Sustainability Issues

The research work is based on published articles, reviews, and secondary data. All information

sources have been cited. The thesis has benefited from discussions with several colleagues that

have been acknowledged. In certain cases, our conclusions are valid under certain assumptions,

which are clarified in the thesis.

Renewables as source of energies are refilled naturally and can be used over and over without

any concerns about future depletion. They are clean and help to mitigate the greenhouse gas

emission (GHG) problem. Furthermore, they are available source of energy and do not put

23

people and environment in danger (unlike nuclear power with safety risk and coal and oil with

air pollution problems). RE is economic in long term as well. Accordingly, RE itself is a

sustainable source of energy and when it applied in ICT, enables network coverage even in

remote and rural areas and fulfill the technical aim of IoT in global scale with no/little harmful

effect on surrounding.

Generally, using RE in ICT helps to move toward sustainability. Expansion of network

coverage increases the information flow to communities and strengthens entrepreneurs to

access to new markets, make jobs and develop local digital ecosystem. (Muto, 2009) It also

can bring digital education program to schools and prompt literacy and learning systems. (Cruz,

Touchard, 2018). Hence, expansion of network coverage may impact the economy and society

positively.

5. Technological Feasibility of Standalone Solar Powered Base Stations

As discussed in Chapter 2, solar power alone is not sufficient to operate cellular base stations

today. The technological feasibility of standalone systems relies on energy efficiency of the

base stations. The emerging 5G cellular base stations are expected to have higher energy

efficiency than previous generations (4G, 3G, 2G). This, however, should not be confused with

overall energy demand of future telecom infrastructure, because that is expected to radically

increase since the number of network deployments would significantly increase in both urban

and rural areas. Ultra-dense deployments are expected in urban areas to support extreme data

rates and network coverage must be extended to rural areas.

The emerging 5G standard for operation of mobile networks is being developed on the

following two design principles to enable higher energy efficiency (Ericsson White Paper,

2015):

• to only be active and transmit when needed

• to only be active and transmit where needed

The above two principles are based on the observation that more than 90% of network energy

is consumed on transmission not related to delivery of data, voice, video etc., but rather on

transmissions related to network acquisition and synchronization (i.e., making sure that the

network is accessible all the time, even when not needed) (Ericsson White Paper, 2015). Figure

11 shows that even in case of extreme user traffic, the network energy consumption and

utilization is not due to user data. Hence, avoiding unnecessary transmission related to network

acquisition and access could significantly reduce energy requirements of base stations.

24

Figure 11: Utilization and corresponding network energy consumption for different traffic loads

(Source: Ericsson White Paper – 5G Energy Performance)

Although 5G base stations would increase energy efficiency by mentioned design principles,

there is still a long way to go. It is important to point out that although network energy

efficiency is one of the important design principle for 5G networks, it has not been foremost

on the list of 5G key performance indicators such as extreme data rates, low latency

transmissions, ultra-reliability, and massive connectivity (Buzzi et al., 2016). There are some

fundamental tradeoffs between energy/power efficiency and other network/transmission

parameters (deployment efficiency, spectral efficiency, bandwidth efficiency, delay

efficiency). These tradeoffs are sketched in Figure 12 below; details can be found in (Chen et

al., 2011). These tradeoffs show that to achieve higher energy or power efficiency, the network

operators and vendors would have to compromise on other important measures. This means

that the telecom infrastructure industry may have to reconsider system designs, if network

energy efficiency is prioritized for future networks.

25

Figure 12: Fundamental tradeoffs between network energy/power efficiency and other communication network

parameters (deployment efficiency, bandwidth efficiency, spectral efficiency, and delay efficiency).

26

6. Market Value Assessments

6.1. Market Values

In this section, we calculate the market value of the renewables powered cellular base stations.

We calculate values for total addressable market, potential market, and realistic market. We

have used following facts and assumptions in our calculations. (Table 1)

Table 1. Assumed values for different variables

Variable Value Reference/Comments

Total number of existing base

stations

7 million (Waring, 2017)

Total number of off-grid base

stations

1 million (Hasan et al., 2011) and (Kumar,

2014)

Average power consumption per

base station

3000 Watts (Kumar, 2014) and (Mcmilin,

2014)

Average price per base station 50K USD (Ahmed et al., 2016)

Price per advanced base station

(RE powered)

100K USD (Ahmed et al., 2016)

Mobile network coverage

population wise

95% (Ericsson mobility report, 2017)

Land surface area 149 million km2 (Chen, 2001)

Human land occupation

percentage

20% (Kiem, 2011)

Urban land percentage 4% (Cox, W., 2010)

On-grid base station OPEX 3K USD/year (Hasan et al., 2011)

Standalone base station OPEX 1K USD/year (Hasan et al., 2011)

Off-grid base station OPEX

(working with Diesel)

30K USD/year (Hasan et al., 2011)

Grid-connected/Hybrid OPEX 2K USD/year (Hasan et al., 2011)

On-grid base station CAPEX 50K USD (Alsharif et al., 2017)

Standalone base station CAPEX 100K USD (Alsharif et al., 2017)

Off-grid base station OPEX

(working with Diesel)

50K USD (Aris, Shabani, 2015)

Grid-connected/Hybrid CAPEX 100K USD (Alsharif, 2017)

World population percentage

with little or no electricity access

16% (IEA, 2016)

Percentage of land with

sufficient RE (solar/wind)

resources

50% (Miret, 2015)

First, we calculate total cost of ownership (TCO) for four possible solutions:

• On-grid BS

• Standalone (RE powered) BS

• Off-grid (diesel powered) BS

• Grid connected hybrid BS

27

The total cost of ownership is calculated as: TCO for N number years = CAPEX + OPEX/year

× N number of years. The values for CAPEX and OPEX/year are given in Table 1 for the four

types of BS. In Figure 13, we plot TCO for 8 years (i.e., N=8).

Figure 13 Total cost of ownership calculated for four different BS solutions based on type of their power sources

We make a few important observations:

1. Off-grid base stations are extremely expensive due to very high OPEX

2. On-grid base stations (with reliable electricity connection) have lowest TCO

3. Standalone and hybrid/grid connected base stations have similar TCO (standalone is

slightly less expensive)

Based on these observations, we will define realistic and potential market values.

Value of Total Addressable Market: The total addressable market value includes upgrading

all existing BS with standalone/hybrid (RE powered), new installations in in areas with human

population (for enhanced coverage, performance, and support IoT) and in desolate areas

without human population (mainly for IoT).

The market value of upgrading existing infrastructure= Total number of BS × Average price/BS

= 7 million × 50K USD = 350 billion USD.

For calculating market value of new installation in areas with human population, we assume

that number of BS increase by 2025 will be 25%. This implies 1.75 million new BS sites. The

28

market value is calculated as: number of new BS installations × price of an advanced base (RE

powered) stations = 1.75 million × 100K USD = 87 billion USD.

Next, we calculate the number of BS required in desolate areas to calculate market value of

new installations in desolate areas. The area of desolate is approximately calculated as follows:

(Land surface areas) × (percentage of land without human occupation) = 149 million km2 × 0.8

= 119 million km2. Assuming an advanced long-range base station with 50 km range radius,

the circular signal coverage area is 314 km2. The number of BS required to provide coverage

in the desolate area is given by: Area of desolate land/coverage area of a long-range BS = 119

million km2/31 km2 = 379, 617. The market value is given by: number of BS required to cover

desolate area × price of an advanced BS (RE powered) = 379, 617 × 100K USD = 38 billion

USD approximately.

Hence, the total market value is equal to: market value of upgrading existing infrastructure +

market value of new installation in areas with human population + market value of new

installation in areas without human population= 350 billion USD + 87 billion USD + 38 billion

USD = 475 billion USD. In Figure 14, we summarize the shares of different segments in the

total addressable market.

Figure 14 The total addressable market

.

Value of Potential Market:

We define potential market as BS upgrade in the areas with existing off-grid base stations and

sufficient RE resources and new infrastructure in the areas with and without human population

with sufficient RE resources.

There are approximately 1 million off-grid BS today and if 50% of land area has sufficient RE

resources, the market value of upgrading the off-grid BS stations with RE powered BS is 50

billion USD (assuming 100K USD price of an advanced BS).

29

The market value of new BS installation in areas without human population has been calculated

previously as 38 billion USD. If only 50% of land has sufficient RE resources, we get the

potential market value as 19 billion USD. Similarly, the market value of new installation in

areas with human population and sufficient RE resources is calculated as 87 billion USD × 0.5

= 43.5 billion USD.

Based on the above calculation, the total potential market value is: 50 billion USD + 19 billion

USD + 43.5 billion USD = 112.5 billion USD.

Value of Real Market:

Based on the very high OPEX of the off-grid base stations (see Figure 12), the immediate real

market of the RE powered BS stations is upgrading the existing off-grid base stations. The

value of this market has been earlier calculated as 50 billion USD.

In Figure 15, we summarize the calculated values of the total market, the potential market, and

the real market.

Figure 15 The value of total market, potential market, and real market.

6.2. Power Savings

In this section, we calculate the expected power savings as a consequence of RE powered

base stations. We have previously calculated the number of RE powered base stations

required in the total market (=8844,904), the potential market (=2310,738) and the real

market (=500,000). Assuming that the average power consumption of a BS is 3000 watts, the

power savings in the total, the potential, and the real markets are given in Figure 16.

30

Figure 16 Estimated power savings due to RE powered base stations in the total addressable market, the potential market,

and the real market

7. Business Analysis

In this section, business environment for network vendors using RE to power base stations is

evaluated by means of Porters’ five forces framework. It is important to specify if all the factors

in Porters’ Five Forces and SWOT have equally the same impact on the innovation or not. In

this research, all the potential factors are assessed, however, some of them are not likely in near

future or do not have strong impact on the market as the others.

7.1. Porters’ Five Forces for network vendors

Porters’ Five Forces is used to analyze the external environment of ICT industry using RE.

Threat of new entrants and substitutes along with bargaining power of customers and suppliers

are assessed in following. At the end, the rivalry in ICT industry is studied as well.

Threat of new entrants: ICT is a fast-growing industry while it is a complicated technological

area. It takes a long time from founding an ICT company to entering to the market. Establishing

the brand and gaining customer loyalty are also time-consuming process in this sector. In

general, telecom industry is not an easy field to enter in. Huge capital investment, skilled human

resources and high cost to access patents and gain rights are strong barriers to enter ICT

segment. There are few network infrastructure companies in the world that already made

networks with their customers and established their brands. Consequently, these barriers to

entry will limit the threat of new entrants and we see it a weak force.

31

Threat of substitutes: They are several potential replacements for RE in ICT. However, not

all of them are viable at the moment. There are some issues like price, accessibility and

technology barrier that make them not good choices. Following are the probable alternatives

for RE in ICT industry.

● Fossil fuel:

High price of fossil fuels is one of the driving forces to apply RE in ICT. In contrary, a

very low cost of fossil fuel can make it to a replacement for RE. In this case, renewables

can lose their economic justification and be replaced by the cheaper choice. In countries

with low fossil fuel price, fossil fuel might be considered a better alternative as well.

● Advanced Fuel cells:

Fuel cells are a promising source of energy in ICT and powering future. Hydrogen fuel

cells are used in hybrid vehicle in limited extent (Expositions, 2017). However, further

developments are required for evolution of fuel cell technology to play a key role in

future energy.

● Battery

As mentioned earlier, the batteries are now used in combination with electricity grid or

RE to compensate any power outage and failure. New generation of batteries as an

efficient energy storage can even operate independently from electricity gird and be a

threat for RE. The global shift toward electrical cars leads both industry (e.g. Tesla,

Nissan, Panasonic) and university to invest heavily to create a new innovative and more

powerful battery technology. Despite the considerable technical advances, there are still

several years from widespread application of batteries as the ultimate energy source.

(Carter, 2018)

● New energy sources:

Improvement of drilling technology in USA has discovered shale gas and oil as two

new sources of energy. High fossil fuel price has made the shale oil and gas production

profitable. (Aydin, 2014) These can threaten the future of RE.

In addition, there are some other new sources of energy such as mix of aluminum nano-

material and water (Raven, 2017), flammable ice (Galeon, Houser, 2017) and plasma

to generate fusion power (Smith, 2017) that can potentially be alternatives for RE in

future. However, they are still in research phase and are not the close substitutes

products at the market.

• High energy efficient telecom equipment:

More energy efficient telecom equipment and new generation of mobile network

facilities with high energy efficiency might be another threat for RE. They can cause

reduction of required network infrastructure and reduce the energy consumption. Yet,

the upcoming 5G has higher energy intensity which leads to consumes more energy

rather than the previous ICT technology generations.

• New telecommunication technology:

32

A new disruptive telecommunication method that can change the way of

telecommunication and not necessarily requires the common network infrastructure

may be another threat. However, this technology is not viable today or in near future.

Overall, it may be said that fossil fuels are considered as powerful threats to substitute RE in

ICT. They are practical source of energies which are widely used in all industry sectors all over

the world. Thus, fossil fuels can be one of strongest threat toward using REs in ICT.

Considering the other mentioned alternatives, number of the close substitutes products

available at the market to replace RE are not too many and widespread. Moreover, not many

organizations offer these alternatives.

Bargaining power of customers: Telephone service providers and mobile network operators

(e.g. Telia, Tele2, Vodafone) are the greatest customers for network vendors.

On the other side, there are few telecom vendors in the market (e.g. Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia,

ZTE and Samsung) that competing hard to offer products with low price and high quality. Thus,

the customers have good bargaining powers initially. However, network vendors have similar

product portfolio. This limits the bargaining power of customers.

It is worthwhile to mention that some vendors are not allowed to sell in certain countries due

to political issues or security. Consequently, some customers are loyal to one or two specific

network vendors. One example for this issue is Huawei banned from the telecom infrastructure

business in USA due to political issues (George, 2018)

Bargaining power of suppliers: Companies that make network infrastructure, do not produce

all the required equipment and services themselves. They have collaboration with several other

companies (as their suppliers) to design and make some of their needed products. Sometime,

the companies even outsource a part of their products or services. Some examples of these

outsourced equipment in ICT are batteries, air cooling/heating units, wind turbines and solar

panels. Considering RE as the energy source, there are several suppliers who can offer

renewable power generators compatible with telecommunication equipment. High number of

suppliers increases the competition and decrease their bargaining power.

Industry rivalry: As stated before, there are few network vendors actively working in ICT

sector. There is a huge competition among them to offer cheap and efficient products and gain

bigger share of the market. Being creative and meeting the environmental protocols is a strong

motive to use RE in ICT industries. This helps companies to make a good social image of

themselves as well.

Moreover, the competitors in ICT try to gain any chance that can improve their product and

have sustainable competitive advantage through innovation, thus they invest in any potential

technology such as RE. However, using RE as the first source of energy is not the priority of

network vendors now. Thus, we do not see hard competition among rivals in using RE now but

in future it may attract more attention from the vendors.

33

All things considered, analysis of Porter’s 5 Forces illustrates that telecom network is an

attractive industry for the innovation (RE powered ICT). Summary of porters’ 5 Forces analysis

can be found in the Table 2.

Table 2: Porters 5 Forces analysis for network vendors

Threat of

substitutes

Threat of new

entrants Industry rivalry

Bargaining power

of suppliers

Bargaining

power of

customers

-Fossil fuel

-Advanced

fuel cells

-Advanced

battery

-New ways of

harnessing

energy from

shale oil/gas

Barriers:

-Huge capital

investment

-Skilled human

resources

-High cost to

access patents

and gain rights

-Establishing

brand and

getting

customer

loyalty is time

consuming

-Few network

vendors

-Some customers

due to political

issues are loyal to

a vendor

-Several suppliers

of RE devices

-Solar panel and

wind mills are used

widely in different

sectors and is not a

unique technology

belongs to few

companies

-Network

vendors and

many operators

(customers)

-Some network

vendors are not

allowed to sell

in certain

countries

-Network

vendors have

similar product

portfolio

Strong force Weak force Weak/Medium

force Weak force Medium force

7.2. SWOT Analysis for Network Vendors

In this research, SWOT analysis is applied to peruse the strength and weakness of ICT industry

using RE. Additionally the possible opportunity and threats are studied. Table 3 demonstrates

the results of the SWOT analysis.

Technological advances (IoT) that can be triggered via using RE as well as low/no electricity

expenses are among the strengths of RE in ICT sector. High initial setup cost is a weakness for

this innovative solution. RE must be cost competitive enough regarding to the common power

provided by electricity grid or generators operating by fossil fuels. It is a challenge to persuade

the customer to accept high capital cost of the RE setup facilities and take positive

environmental impact of the green ICT technology into account; particularly in regions and

countries with low electricity price and weak renewable energy support policies.

34

Table 3. SWOT analysis for network vendors

Strengths: Weakness:

• Lower OPEX (no/low

electricity bill) makes it

favorable for customers

(MNOs)

• Customers can enable new

services in untapped areas (e.g.,

IoT)

• High CAPEX in the short to medium

term

• Geography dependence

• Not a stable source of energy (for

example during winter there is low sun).

An energy storage system is required.

Opportunities: Threats:

• Getting more governmental

support

• Create improved social image

• Create a new revenue stream

with a new technology

• CAPEX can reduce in the long

term

• Competitors have ability to provide

similar offerings

• Cost of fossil fuel may reduce in certain

countries

• New source of energy like US shale oil

and gas

Although the capital cost for installing the power generation equipment using RE as the energy

source is high, low electricity expenses is a motive for the customer to apply RE.

The new 5G products will require larger cooling capacity and consume more power, thus,

electricity usage will grow rapidly and need for the cheaper source of energy will increase in

future. Moreover, clean energy has an increasing trend almost all over the world and is

supported by the governments in many countries. This also helps to motivate the customers for

using renewables in ICT industry. However, further technological development of RE and

increasing production will decrease utilities prices even further. Thus, initial setup cost

(CAPEX) become more affordable over time.

8. Diffusion of Innovation Analysis

To assess the diffusion of innovative solar/wind powered telecom networks, we analyze

different technological solutions (standalone, hybrid, grid-connected) in terms of their relative

advantage, complexity, compatibility, trialability and observability (Rogers, 2010) in the

following four cases:

Case 1: Desolate areas with scarce users and no available electricity

Case 2: Rural areas with no electricity available

Case 3: Urban / Rural areas with unreliable electricity available

35

Case 4: Urban / Rural areas with reliable electricity available

Hence, the analysis of diffusion of innovation consists three innovation enablers (standalone,

hybrid, grid-connected) and four cases (Case 1, Case 2, Case 3, and Case 4). The diffusion

analysis has been made considering telecom operators (e.g., Telenor or Vodafone) as the

customers/buyers of telecom networks from telecom infrastructure vendors (e.g., Ericsson or

Huawei). Due to the technological similarity between grid-connected and hybrid models i.e.

the need of additional source of energy, the diffusion of innovation analysis will consist of

analyzing grid-connected and hybrid systems as a one group. In what follows, the innovation

enablers are analyzed in terms of their ability of diffusion, according to the five diffusion of

innovation parameters (Rogers, 2010). Our analysis is summarized at the end of this section in

Table 2. (The reader may look at Table 2 before reading the remaining part of this section to

get an initial understanding of what kind of assessment is being performed in this section).

Relative Advantage: We analyze relative advantage of innovation enablers (standalone,

hybrid/grid-connected) from economic, social prestige, convenience and satisfaction

perspectives. Three types of renewable energy powered base stations differ in terms of their

relative advantage from the eyes of the customers (telecom operators that use base stations

to provide telecommunication services e.g., Telenor or Vodafone) and companies

(telecommunication companies that build and establish base stations such e.g., Ericsson or

Huawei).

In Case 1 (Desolate area with scarce user base and no electricity), standalone base station

system has a relative advantage over other innovation enablers (hybrid or grid-connected) since

there is no electricity. Since only renewable energy can be utilized, a standalone system is the

most convenient choice. Economical perspective is not discussed for Case 1, since other

solutions cannot be utilized due to the lack of electricity.

In Case 2 (Rural areas with no electricity available), the relative advantage comparison will be

similar to the first case. Since there is no electricity available, standalone base station system

that can operate on renewable energy will be the most convenient choice. It also provides the

most satisfaction for the company and the customer therefore the relative advantage of

standalone will be considered to be better than the grid-connected/hybrid systems.

In Urban / Rural areas where unreliable electricity is available i.e., Case 3, grid-connected and

hybrid base station systems are more convenient than standalone. Although the electricity is

unreliable, it creates an advantage of an additional power source. In terms of convenience and

overall satisfaction; grid-connected and hybrid systems will have relative advantage over

standalone base station system where electricity cannot be used.

Case 4 is almost similar to Case 3. Only major difference is that source of electricity is assumed

to be reliable. In Case 4 (as in Case 3), the grid-connected systems become more convenient

choices. This is due to their ability to use the available electricity grid. They are more

economical from the eyes of the customers (telecom operators) due to lower initial investments.

36

This makes grid-connected system relatively more advantageous than the standalone

counterpart.

Complexity: Complexity is the overall perception of understanding an innovation. Complexity

could make certain innovations harder to understand, therefore, makes it harder to diffuse

(Rogers, 2010). In the following, we compare complexity of standalone and grid-

connected/hybrid systems from the perspective of telecom operators. This is because the

customers in this case are the telecom operators and the value proposition from the telecom

companies to these operators consists of maintenance of the base station technology (Engwall

et al., 2016).

The standalone systems will be deployed by network vendors, therefore, there is no complexity

for operators at the time of installation. However, to operate and maintain the standalone

systems (e.g., managing batteries), telecom operators might need new knowledge or additional

support from network vendors. The hybrid systems, on the other hand, require manual

operations e.g., the load distributions between different power supplies or operation of diesel

generators in absence of electricity. Based on these arguments, it is hard to say which

innovation enabler (standalone, hybrid/grid connected) would have lower complexity for

telecom operators. This concludes that both hybrid/grid-connected and standalone systems will

be considered similar in terms of their complexity.

Compatibility: Compatibility is the overall perception of consistency of different available

technology with respect to the different cases. Past experiences and potential adopters are

necessary parts of this criteria that should be taken to account (Rogers, 2010). From the

customer perspective, i.e., the telecom operators that rent base stations to provide

telecommunication services, the main perception of consistency is the overall state of the base

station (uptime/downtime issues, general capability and signaling rates). Past experiences on

this subject could be argued to be the usage of mainstream technology that is well established

and accepted i.e., incrementally developed dominant design (Tidd and Bessant, 2009).

For Case 1 and Case 2, since there is no source of electricity, a standalone base station system

becomes more compatible than the hybrid/grid-connected systems. The fact that grid-

connected and hybrid systems cannot be utilized when there is no electricity available makes

past experience comparison irrelevant. The first choice for compatibility will be the standalone

base station system.

In Case 3, there is a source of electricity, but it is unreliable. From the consistency perspective,

standalone base system technology does not need an additional power source, so it will still

operate on a consistent level, however, grid-connected and hybrid systems need an additional

power source and if that source is unreliable, then overall consistency of these choices will be

lower. From the past experience perspective, grid-connected and hybrid devices are more

developed and established technologies and they are closer to a dominant design in terms of

base stations, standalone systems are in general a radical innovative approach to the base station

design therefore hybrid and grid-connected devices are better in terms of past experience from

the eyes of the customers (Tidd and Bessant, 2009). Adoption rate of grid-connected and hybrid

37

devices could be argued to be more than the standalone for the same reason discussed above

(grid-connected and hybrid devices being more established technologies). Overall, although

grid-connected and hybrid devices may suffer from consistency due to an unreliable additional

power source they are still better choices from the compatibility part then the standalone base

station system in this case.

Case four has a reliable power source available. It has been argued in Case 3 that in cases with

unreliable additional power sources, grid-connected and hybrid devices are more compatible

than the standalone base station systems due to their superiority in terms of past experience and

adoption rate. Having a reliable additional power source only makes grid-connected and hybrid

a stronger choice. Hence, in fourth case the compatibility of grid-connected and hybrid devices

is better than the standalone base station systems.

Trialability: Trialability is about how experimental the innovation is. According to the

diffusion of innovation theory, partially adoptable experimentations are more triable and

therefore more diffusible (Rogers, 2010). For the four cases that are introduced in this paper,

trialability analysis is based on the ability of partial experimentation and general

experimentation of the innovation.

For Case 1, where there is no source of electricity, standalone base station system becomes the

only technologically feasible choice. It will be the only available innovation to be

experimented. This results in standalone base station system to be more triable than the other

two innovation enablers.

Case 2’s trialability analysis is the same as the first case due to electricity not being available.

The only choice is still the standalone base station system. This results in standalone system to

be more triable than the other two innovation enablers.

Case 3 introduces an unreliable additional power source. This allows grid-connected and hybrid

systems to be experimented. In this situation, hybrid and grid connected systems are easier to

build and test the results. Standalone systems, however, need a proper phase of adjustment to

study the weather conditions and further adjustments about the energy division. Hence grid-

connected and hybrid systems are more triable than standalone system in Case 3.

Case 4’s main difference from Case 3 is access to reliable power source. Reliability does not

affect the experimentation phase; the choice will not get affected as well. Therefore, in Case 4

too, the more triable choices are grid-connected and hybrid systems.

Observability: Observability criteria of diffusion theory is about the end results being visible

to others (Rogers, 2010). In the following, we analyze visibility of the three innovation enablers

in the four cases from the perspective telecom operators (customers of telecom network

equipment).

38

In Case 1 and Case 2, there is no electricity available. This allows only standalone base station

system to get any end results. Since customers (telecom operators) only see this as an end result,

standalone base station system is the most observable technology.

Case 3 and Case 4 consider access to unreliable and reliable electricity respectively. This allows

all innovation enablers to produce end results for the customers. From customer perspective,

all these systems are same in terms of signal transmission. The difference of their source of

power does not create any differences in terms of their transmission of signals. Due to this

situation, the observability of all these three different innovation enablers could argued to be

the same.

Our diffusion analysis for the innovation enables in four different cases is summarized in Table

4. In the table, an innovation enabler with number 1 has an advantage over another innovation

enabler with number 2 for the given scenario. Based on this assessment, we conclude that

standalone base station systems are superior in terms of diffusion in Case 1 and Case 2, whereas

grid-connected/hybrid base station systems are more likely to diffuse in Case 3 and Case 4.

Table 4: Diffusion Analysis of four Base Station Systems

9. Plausible scenarios

9.1. Driving Forces for Transformation in Telecom Networks due to Renewables

In the following, we identify forces that have the potential to trigger innovation in telecom

industry due to the technological transformation towards base stations that are powered by

renewable sources.

1) Environmental aspects/Green Society: ICT industry is responsible for 0.5% carbon

emissions worldwide (Fehske et al., 2011), (Auer et al., 2011). It is forecast that carbon

emissions from telecommunication technologies would increase by 28% from 2014 to 2020

(Chamola, Sikdar, 2016). Just in India, more than 5 metric-tons of CO2 is produced by

powering telecom base stations with diesel (Chamola, Sikdar, 2016). It is also important to note

that that gradually the telecom infrastructure is moving from cables to purely

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wireless, which would also result in higher carbon emissions. It is envisioned that 75% of

telecom infrastructure will be wireless by 2020 (Chamola, Sikdar, 2016). Hence, carbon

emission and climate change are driving forces for the use of renewable energy for powering

telecommunication infrastructure. For example, several telecom operators today, including

Vodafone, Telenor, are Telecom Italia are already set targets to reduce carbon footprint

(Vodafone, 2015), (Telecom Italia, 2012), (Telenor, 2015). Ericsson is also investing solar

powered base station technologies (Ericsson, 2015).

2) Economic aspects: Building a telecom infrastructure which can be powered by solar base

stations would most likely incur high capital expenditure but on the other hand, the operating

cost will most likely be significantly low. As pointed out in (Edler, Lundberg, 2004), cellular

base stations account for more than 70% electricity bills for mobile network operators.

Moreover, standalone solar-powered base stations would not require manual operations, as

needed network operation in areas where electricity grid is unreliable and diesel generators are

used as alternatives. Hence, significant reduction in OPEX can be imagined by realizing base

stations that are powered by solar/wind energy, for example. One additional cost for standalone

solar/wind base stations could be replacement of batteries, but that might happen once in years.

There are additional economic incentives for telecom operators to create new customers and

create monetary values from provision of traditional or new services that are not enabled in

areas where there is no mobile network coverage due to lack of electricity grid, difficult terrain,

and hard to keep manual operations. For telecom infrastructure vendors, there is possibility to

create new technologies and products powered by renewables.

The research, development, and realization of solar/wind power telecom infrastructure and

associated technologies would also create new employment opportunities in the ICT industry

as well as in the renewable energy sector. In the last few years, renewable energy sector is

creating new employment opportunities, e.g., in 2015 employment increased by 5% in

renewable energy sector (direct and indirect employment) and there were 8.1 million jobs in

total, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) (Ren21, 2016).

3) Enhanced network coverage: Lack of cellular network coverage is one of the big

challenges ICT industry faces today. In many areas with difficult terrain, scarce population,

lack of electricity grid, telecom network deployments are hard to realize. Hence, there is a big

opportunity in enhancing mobile network coverage in far-flung and remote areas by means

solar/wind powered base stations.

For instance, with the emergence of self-driving vehicles, the telecom industry would face a

severe challenge on enhancing network coverage. As an example, Tesla is having strategic

partnership with Telefonica, the Spanish telecom operator, for provision connectivity to cars

(Telefonica, 2014).

4) Internet of Things/Networked Society: The next big thing in the ICT industry and society

at large is Internet of Things (IoT). There is plethora of emerging IoT applications related to

connected vehicles, drones, remote surgery and health monitoring systems, surveillance, smart

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grids, factory automation, logistics, industrial control systems, public safety and security,

gaming, virtual reality etc. The most popular IoT applications are ranked in (IoT Analytics,

2015). The realization of different IoT applications require global network coverage, which is

not available today due to lack of electricity grid, difficult terrain, and scarce population in

many areas. Hence, solar/wind powered telecom networks can be a viable way fully networked

society/internet of things.

5) Technological advances: The renewable technologies are advancing with investments from

public and private sectors. There is also a constant trend of improving energy efficiency of

electronic systems and green communication technologies. The renewable energy sector is

developing technologies for harnessing and transferring renewable energies, the electronics

sector is focused on improving power consumption, and the communication engineers and

scientists are working on improving power efficient transmission and network designs. All

these technological developments combined, would have synergetic effect in realizing cost-

efficient standalone telecom networks powered by renewables.

6) Social image of telecom companies: These days many companies want to improve their

social image. Working towards green products and services is an effective way to demonstrate

social responsibility. Therefore, if a company does not have economic incentive and/or any

regulatory bindings related to carbon emission, it still has incentive to invest in renewable

energy-based manufacturing and delivery of products and services, to be perceived as a

responsible entity in the society.

7) Government policies: Government policies and regulations can play a significant role in

promoting utilization of renewable energy. Today, almost all countries have renewable energy

support policies in some form. As per (Ren21, 2016), renewable energy policies were in place

in 146 countries in 2015. With continual governmental supports in terms of subsidies and

tougher regulations on carbon emissions, the entry barriers for powering telecom infrastructure

with renewable energy can be diminished – encouraging the ICT industry for renewable energy

alternatives (e.g., solar, wind).

The EU has already introduced a target of minimum 27% renewable energy consumption by

2030 (Ren21, 2016). Several African countries have also introduced ambitious targets on

renewable energy consumption. It is important that large regions in Africa do not have access

to network coverage, e.g., 60% of land area and 20 million of population in Ghana does not

have mobile coverage, as of 2016 (Chamola, Sikdar, 2016).

8) Reduced risks in case of disasters: In case of natural disasters, e.g., floods, earthquakes

or even terrorist attacks, the traditional grid connected telecom networks may lose connection

to power supply, resulting in loss of network access. As an example, during Tsunami in Japan,

more than 6,000 base stations lost power supply (Chamola, Sikdar, 2016). Reliable network

connectivity becomes even more important in disastrous situations to manage rescue

operations. Having telecom networks which do not rely on external power supply (grid

connected for example) reduces this risk. Hence, this can be seen as one of motivating factors

for using renewable energy (solar/wind) to power telecom infrastructure.

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9.2. Plausible Scenarios of the Future

In Section 8.1, we identified eight driving forces for the transformation of telecom towards

utilization of renewable power sources. Among these driving forces, we believe that the

strongest drivers could be IoT industry and governmental policies. Based on the extremities of

these driving forces, we will perform a scenario analysis in this section.

As it was previously discussed, renewable energy could have a positive impact on

telecommunication industry based on the growth of its network coverage. IoT demands global

network coverage (IoT Analytics, 2015), forcing telecom companies to deploy base stations in

desolate areas (as discussed in the diffusion analysis Case 1). New base stations need to be

deployed where there is no electricity available or electricity is unreliable. However, the rate

of adoption of IoT is uncertain and consequently the need for network coverage is uncertain at

the moment. Government approach towards renewable energies could be argued to be a critical

uncertainty (Tidd and Bessant, 2009) due to the fact that governments’ approaches could differ

wildly and unpredictably. Government approaches ranges from capital investments to leaving

change to social entrepreneurs as discussed in Karakaya et al (2014).

Using the two main driving forces with critical uncertainties, the scenario matrix for renewable

energy-based telecom networks is created in Figure 17. The scenario matrix shows that there

are four plausible outcomes for the demand of renewable powered telecom networks. Based on

these outcomes, different cases become either more or less important accordingly.

Figure 17: Scenario Matrix for the demand of renewable energy powered base stations

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Focus on network coverage: In this plausible scenario, IoT has a high adoption rate among

humanity. There are no governmental incentives provided for using renewable energy. This

situation creates a demand for new base stations to be developed in places where there is no

electricity. IoT devices needing constant and reliable network connection which justifies the

demand for increased network coverage. For this reason, if this scenario happens, Case 1

(Desolate area with no electricity) and Case 2 (Rural areas with no electricity available) become

relevant. This scenario forces telecom companies to only focus on network coverage to meet

global network access demand of IoT customers (e.g., automotive industry). Rural/urban areas

that already have electricity may not be promising options to deploy renewable energy-based

telecom networks. This is due to high cost of investment in absence of government subsidies

or regulations.

Focus on infrastructure upgrade: In this plausible scenario, IoT market demands are very

low but governments are assumed to give high incentives for renewable energy utilization. This

scenario makes Case 3 (Urban / Rural areas with unreliable electricity available) and Case 4

(Urban / Rural areas with reliable electricity available) relevant. This is because that

governmental incentive capitals could be used to upgrade the base stations in these areas that

will lower the variable cost of these stations, make them greener and operate with less

electricity consumption. If this scenario becomes the future, then telecom companies might

refrain themselves from building new base stations on locations like Case 1 and 2 due to the

low adoption rate of IoT.

Dominant expansion: This plausible scenario could be realized when IoT adoption will be

high and governments will give incentives for the usage of renewable energy. In this scenario,

the demand for renewable energy powered base stations will increase and governments will

provide capital for utilization of renewable energy powered products. Telecom companies in

this scenario could realize diffusible technologies in all four cases (Case 1, 2, 3 and 4).

No demand for renewable energy powered base station: In this scenario, IoT has a low

adoption rate and governments will not be willing to provide incentives for the utilization of

renewable energy products. This will not increase the demand for the network base stations

and there are no reasons to upgrade the existing infrastructure due to high investment costs of

the renewable energy (Karakaya et al., 2014). None of the innovation enablers would be

realized in the given cases, if this scenario becomes the future.

9.1. Technology Push vs Market Pull

The realization of solar/wind powered telecom networks may be an outcome of: i) technology

push by network vendors and possibly network operators, or ii) market push by society and

industries that demand connectivity and possibly network operators, or iii) technology push as

well as market pull. The technology push vs market pull is shown in Figure 17. Traditionally,

network operators act as customers of network vendors, and connectivity users (people or

industries) act as customers of network operators. Hence, the role of network operators is dual

– they act as customers as well as sellers in the value chain. In Figure 18, we have also given

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driving forces for technology push and market pull. Comparing these driving forces to the

scenario analysis made in Figure 17, we observe that the scenario “Dominant Expansion”

would happen when there is both technology push and market pull. In case of only technology

push, the scenario “Focus on upgrade infrastructure” would occur, whereas in case of only

market pull, the scenario “Focus on network coverage” would occur. The best results are

achieved when the technology push and market pull coexist (Tidd and Bessant, 2009). At

present, there are some glimpse of technology push, for example, Ericsson-Telecom Italia

venture to create solar powered base stations (Ericsson, 2015).

Figure 18: An analysis of technology push vs market pull for telecom networks powered by renewables.

9.2. Industries Co-evolve with RE driven ICT Development

We have discussed the potential of renewable energy in the telecommunications industry. In

this section, we briefly discuss which other industries may have potential to co-develop with

renewable energy driven transformations in the telecom industry. This brief analysis is

motivated by the concept of development blocks (Dahmén, 1988).

We have so far looked at the transformation of ICT industry by RE industry. However, it can

also be argued that ICT industry may transform RE industry and/or the two may co-develop.

For example, RE sites (solar/wind power stations) can be operated, maintained, and controlled

remotely with/without human intervention if there is access to telecom networks in the given

area.

● Automotive industry

Increase in the network coverage could be argued to increase the utilization and application of

smart self-driving cars and hence affect automotive industry. This technology is already started

to be used in the contemporary world (Lutin et al., 2013). Few applications of ICT in

transportation include eco-driving, real time traffic alert and online maps. Synchronizing the

online map with the traffic data, enables the drivers to choose the best possible way. The

vehicles relying on global network coverage can change the transportation industry, with

transportation techniques like “platooning”. Industry will be stimulated from the increased

network coverage and more smart devices will be enabled (Varadi et al., 1999).

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● Agriculture industry

Renewable energy usage to enhance network coverage can be argued to have an impact on the

agriculture industry as well. There have been trials for smart approaches such as smart watering

systems and smart crop growth (Zhongfu et al., 2010). Moreover, smart monitoring systems

can help the governments to prevent destruction of jungles, rainforest and nature leading to

lower carbon emission. (GeSI, 2012) Increased network can stimulate application of these

technologies in the agriculture industry and spur further innovations.

• e-Health

It is relatively a new expression applied for healthcare practice by means of electronic

communication and processes. In some definitions, this term aims medical informatic (using

digital processes in health) (ICT, 2008). In some other texts, e-Health is used as healthcare

practice by means of internet. (Griskewicz, 2002) (Eysenbach, Diepgen, 2001) (Ball, Lillis,

2001). However, Eysenblach (2015) explains that e-Health is the intersection of public

healthcare, medical information and commerce while information is delivered through the

Internet and related technologies. It is a way to improve the health services locally, regionally

and globally via ICT. Enhancing the network coverage can lead to evolve of the healthcare

worldwide.

● e-Business

e-Business or electronica business is any type of commercial transaction or trade that contains

sharing information through the internet. It includes the exchanges of products and services

between individuals, groups and businesses with focus on the use of ICT. e-Business has

become an important part of any commerce during the past years in both private and public

sectors. (Beynon-Davies, 2004) e-Business can also benefit from increasing the network

coverage and reach to the huger market volume.

Final analysis for the co-development industries by development of ICT sector could be

observed in Figure 19, this analysis shows how the positive correlation between

telecommunication and renewable industries will stimulate other industries in a positive

manner. It is worthwhile to mention that this is a brief look to the potential industries that may

co-evolve by developing network coverage due to using RE in ICT. It is recommended as a

future work to do a comprehensive and deep investigation.

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Figure 19: The industries have interdependencies and potential to co-evolve

10. Conclusions

10.1. Conclusion

We have explored the potential of renewable energy (RE) in the ICT industry from

technological, economical, and environmental perspectives. More specifically, we have

focused on innovative RE (solar/wind) powered mobile network infrastructure solutions. Two

innovative technological solutions are considered: i) standalone RE powered telecom base

stations and ii) hybrid RE powered telecom base station (that partially derive energy from

renewables). From the technological perspective, we conclude that the hybrid solutions are

technologically feasible and approximately 0.1% base stations (10,000 out of 7 million

approximately) are hybrid today (i.e., partially relying on solar energy). However, these hybrid

solutions require enhancements to match performance of grid-connected base stations. The

standalone RE powered base stations are not commercially available and need a major research

and development effort. The emerging global 5G mobile communication technology has

focused on improving the energy efficiency of telecom base stations, however, there are

fundamental tradeoffs with other important factors such as bandwidth efficiency, spectral

efficiency, service latency, and deployment efficiency. To enable fully standalone commercial

deployments, the mobile communication industry needs to prioritize energy efficiency over

some of these important measures, which is possible but requires major re-design and

investment.

We have estimated the market value for the innovative RE powered telecom base stations as

well as potential power savings with these innovations. To understand the total addressable

46

market, the potential market, and the real market, we have calculated total cost of ownership

for four possible solutions: i) on-grid base station, ii) off-grid base station, iii) hybrid base

station, and iv) standalone base station. We observe that off-grid base stations are extremely

expensive due to very high OPEX. The on-grid base stations (with reliable electricity

connection) have lowest TCO, whereas standalone and hybrid base stations have similar TCO

(standalone is slightly less expensive). Based on this assessment as well as the geographical

coverage of telecom base stations and limitations with RE resources, we define a total

addressable market, a potential market, and a real market. The immediate real market of the

RE powered BS stations is upgrading the existing off-grid base stations. The value of this

market has been estimated 50 billion USD. We define potential market as base station upgrade

in the areas with existing off-grid base stations and sufficient RE resources and new

infrastructure in the areas with and without human population with sufficient RE resources.

The estimated market value is 112.5 billion USD. The total addressable market value includes

upgrading all existing BS with standalone/hybrid (RE powered), new installations in in areas

with human population (for enhanced coverage, performance, and support IoT) and in desolate

areas without human population (mainly for IoT). The estimated market value is 475 billion

USD. We have also calculated the potential power savings with RE powered standalone base

stations. It is estimated that the power savings can be approximately 26.5 Gwatts, 6.9 Gwatts

and 1.5 Gwatts in the total addressable market, the potential market, and the real market,

respectively.

To analyze the attractive of the RE powered telecom base stations, we have employed Porter’s

five forces model and the SWOT framework. The analysis reveals that this is an attractive

industry. Fossil fuels are considered as strong threats to substitute RE in ICT. They are practical

source of energies which are widely used in all industry sectors all over the world. Thus, fossil

fuels can be one of strongest threat toward using RE in ICT while the other threats have weak

to medium forces to disrupt the innovation (RE). High initial cost of RE power generation

equipment and geography dependence of RE are weaknesses of this innovation. However,

governmental support and economic benefit in long-term run can motivate the customers to

buy telecom solutions powered by RE.

Considering that there are different innovative technological options, standalone or hybrid

systems, we analyze the diffusion of these innovations in four realistic scenarios: i) desolate

areas with scarce population and no electricity, ii) rural areas with no electricity, iii) urban/rural

areas with unreliable access to electricity, and iv) urban/rural areas with reliable access to

electricity. It is found that standalone systems are suitable for cases i) and ii), where this

technology can bring mobile access to remote and difficult terrains, where there is no network

coverage today due to lack of electricity grid and difficulty to maintain manual operations. The

solar-grid connected hybrid solutions are promising for cases iii) and iv). The urban/rural areas

where there is access to electricity grid, hybrid solar-and-grid connected base stations can bring

reduction in carbon emissions as well reduction in total cost of ownership.

To analyze the plausible scenarios in the future for the RE powered telecom infrastructure, we

have identified eight driving forces for an RE driven transformation – environmental,

governmental, economic, IoT market, enhanced network coverage, social image of

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corporations, technological innovations, and reducing failure risks against natural disasters.

Some forces are stronger than others. We believe that the two most influential forces in pushing

renewables in the ICT industry are governmental policies and IoT market demands. The

governmental policies and regulations are primarily due to environmental concerns. The IoT

market demands global access to communication infrastructure. Depending on the intensity of

these two forces, the adoption of solar/wind powered networks can take different forms. It is

found that if both forces are strong, there will be global adoption of renewable energy in the

ICT industry. If there is only governmental push without IoT market demands, then most likely

the existing networks will be replaced by solar-grid connected hybrid solutions without

deployment of standalone systems in remote areas. On the other hand, if there is only IoT

market demands without governmental push, then current base stations may not be upgraded,

but new standalone systems are likely to be deployed in desolate and rural areas where there is

no network access today.

We also study whether the shift towards renewables in the ICT industry will be a technology

push or market pull or both, and what are the driving forces for each. We conclude that to

achieve global adoption of renewables in telecom networks, technology push and market pull

need coexist. Finally, we take a brief look at which other industries can co-develop if the

transformation in telecom industry gets triggers based on renewable energy. We identify three

main industries, automotive, transportation, healthcare, and agriculture that can have strong

relationships over the course of this possible transformation. It is also noted that renewable

energy sector itself may see important developments due to transformation in ICT industry.

This can be an interesting topic for the future research.

10.2. Limitations

This work makes use of secondary data. Certain conclusions on market value estimation are

done based on forecast from secondary sources and partial information. It may be possible to

revise numbers based on new information available in the future with the help of approach

presented in the thesis.

The study does not explore all types of of RE resources thus the findings cannot be generalized

to all the RE resources. Further study is needed to understand the total ICT industry electricity

consumption and carbon emission for all equipment and the full life cycle assessments.

10.3. Future Research

In this study, two types of RE are considered. It can be interesting to assess the other types of

RE in ICT as a future work. A regional study considering local policies and availability of

different type of RE is another suggestion for the future work. In some regions wind and solar

power are both available and there is a possibility to combine solar panel and wind turbine,

however, in some other regions RE is not a viable source of energy. Accordingly, a more

detailed investigation that reflects impact of issues like geography, state principals and policies

or emphasized on a telecom company or country shall be useful.

48

We have briefly discussed which other industries may have potential to co-develop with

renewable energy driven transformations in the telecom industry. It can be interesting to

analyze this further using the concept of development blocks (Dahmén, 1988).

49

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