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September 26th, 2019

Istanbul, Turkey

egencer@mit.edu

Emre Gençer

MIT Energy Initiative

Exploring Rapidly Changing Energy System

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Outline

- Energy Transition

- Incorporating Systems Approach

- Environmental Impact of Renewables

- Examples from California: Operational changes of existing NG plants

- Status of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage

- Hydrogen for Deep Decarbonization

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Energy Transition: Meeting growing demand while reducing carbon emissions

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Today’s energy systems are undergoing major transformations, which are leading towards greater

convergence and inter-sectoral integration – Understanding the implications of these dynamics requires

novel tools that provide deep systems-level insights

Industrial

Transportation

Power

ResidentialEV

H2FCV

Electro-

chemistryRooftop PV

Net metering

Charging

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To address this pressing need, we have developed a novel systems-level technology assessment tool

to understand the impact of all relevant technological, operational, temporal and geospatial variables

to the evolving energy system

UPSTREAM MIDSTREAM PROCESS GATE TO USER END USE

Ore, chemicals,

etc.

Other

CCUSa

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Gas

Liquid

Solid

Power Generation

Industrial

Processes

Carbon

Capture,

Utilization,

and Storage

Power

Gas

Liquid

Solid

Energy

Storage

Solar & Wind

Electricity

Fuel

Chemicals

End-Use and

Efficiency

Improvements

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The growing penetration of renewable resources like solar PV on the power system significantly

impacts plant-level operations – These dynamics have a range of complex consequence that our tool can

help quantify

MITEI Analysis

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

GE7FA-CC 100% GE7FA-CC 40% PG7251 100% PG7251 40% PG5371 100% PG5371 40%

GHG Emissions

kgCO2e/MWh

Process15.3%

CAISO

Thermal generation

GW

2011

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2011 2017

Solar generation share

2017

May CAISO

Power generation unit & loading

Process

100% loading

Process

40% loading 46%

Natural gas

combined cycle

Natural gas

Simple cycle

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Bringing clarity to the real carbon footprint of renewable power technologies is also increasingly

important

Sources: MITEI Analysis

Input Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Location of installation US MW (San Francisco) Germany (Berlin)

Cell type multi crystal Si multi crystal Si

Installation type rooftop, typical tilt rooftop, optimal tilt

Shading losses 2.5% 2.5%

Lifetime (yr) 30 30

Efficiency, STC rated 16.0% 16.0%

Degradation rate ( /yr) 0.7% 0.7%

Inverter loading ratio 1 1

GHG emissions of electricity used

to make panels (g-CO₂-e / kWh) 660 660

GHG emissions of electricity used

to make BOS (g-CO₂-e / kWh) 310 480

If multi-Si, panel prod. typical of: China China

Shipping distance from panel

production to installation (km) 8690 17300

Output, lifetime average Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Life cycle GHG emissions

(g-CO₂-e /kWh) 39.6 66.7

Capacity factor, AC 15.2% 9.1%

AC power per panel area (W/m²) 24.4 14.6

Incident irradiance (kWh/m²/yr) 1803 1071

Panel prod. typical of: China China

What would you like to compare?

Operation

Solar-grade Si production

Cell production

Module production from cells

Mounting production

Inverter & electronics production

Shipping & installation

Casting & wafer production

San Francisco Berlin

Location of Installation

Life cycle GHG emissions

kg CO2e/MWh

User Interface

**

* Standard Test Condition

** Balance of system

*

US (San Francisco)

Example snapshot of our PV LCA tool

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Tracking’s impact on carbon intensity ranges from -12% to +12% - (1) Cloudier or higher latitude more

diffuse light less power gain from tracking, (2) More module prod. emissions (mc-Si > CdTe) greater

reduction in carbon intensity

Sources: MITEI Analysis, Miller et. al. Applied Energy 2019.

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Estimating the net impact of higher renewable power penetration is quite challenging – Has solar boom

in California achieved its maximum emission reduction potential?

Sources: MITEI Analysis

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There is a considerable alteration in how the natural gas power plants have been dispatched over the

last decade

Sources: MITEI Analysis

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Aggregate fleet wide studies are incapable of capturing the real world dynamics – For accurate

characterization, high temporal and geospatial resolution analysis must be performed

Source: MIT Analysis

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By executing the analysis at hourly generator level resolution the main causes of the deviation from the

optimum performance of the units are identified - Higher number of start-ups and more frequent cycling with

a profile shift in time of the day are

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Although we are seeing real growth in low carbon capacity, the global coal fleet remains large and

relatively young – Today, coal supplies ~40% of total electricity from a fleet made up of ~1,600 GWs

Source: IEA, CCS Retrofit, 2012.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

SUB SUP USUP

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55

Global coal power plant capacity China’s coal power plant capacity

India’s coal power plant capacity

More than 50% of the installed

capacity is younger than 20 years.

Sub-critical plants dominate the

installed capacity.

China has the youngest fleet with

total generation capacity of 669 GW

Almost all newly installed capacity

is sub-critical!

Installed new capacity per age segment

GWInstalled new capacity per age segment

GW

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Relative to the profound growth witnessed with renewables deployment, CCS has really struggled to

gain any momentum – Today’s deployment reality vastly deviates from targets

Sources: 1EIA, International Energy Outlook, 2005. 2IEA, Energy Technology Perspective, 2015. 3DOE-NETL, Carbon Capture

Tech. Program Plan, 2013. 4IEA, Emission Reduction Thru Upgrade of Coal-Fired Power Plants, 2014. Global CCS Institute

Project Database, 2017

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Current Target

74 MtCO2/year

4 GtCO2/y by 20402

$10/ton CO2 capt. by 2035

43%-56% (HHV) in 2035

Missed Targets

2.6-4.9 GtCO2/y by 20201

32 MtCO2/year

Total planned

$60/ton CO2 captured3

25%-35% (HHV) 4

Operational projects

Number of projects

Total number of projects

Natural

Gas

Process.

Power

Capacity

MtCO2/year

Target: 125x capacity

increase in 20 years!

Plan: 2.3x capacity

increase in 8 years!

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The majority of today’s operational CCS facilities are linked to gas processing and this accounts for

20 MtCO2/year of the capacity – Only two power plants have an operational CCS element

MITEI Analysis

QuestHydrogen

production

Dedicated

2015

UthmaniyahNatural gas

processing

EOR

2015

Abu DhabiIron and Steel

production

EOR

2016

Petro NovaPower

generation

EOR

2017

Air ProductsHydrogen

production

EOR

2013

CoffeyvilleFertilizer

production

EOR

2013

Lost CabinNatural gas

processing

EOR

2013

Boundary DamPower

generation

EOR

2014

Petrobas LulaNatural gas

processing

EOR

2013

Great PlainsSynthetic gas

productionEOR

2000

In SalahNatural gas

processing

Dedicated

2004

Century PlantNatural gas

processing

EOR

2010

Val VerdeNatural gas

processingEOR

1972

EnidFertilizer

productionEOR

1982

Shute CreekNatural gas

processing

EOR

1986

SleipnerNatural gas

processingDedicated

1996

SnøhvitNatural gas

processing

Dedicated

2008

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

5

10

15

20

25

Total Capture

Capacity (Mtpa)

Number of

Operational Projects

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The relative cost of integrating CCS remains an enormous hurdle for the technology

Sources: Rubin, Davison and Herzog, IJGGC, 2015.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

rep. value min max

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

SCPC SCPCwCCS

NGCC NGCCwCCS

IGCC IGCCwCCS

Oxy OxywCCS

rep. value min max

Total capital requirement

USD/kW

Levelized Cost of Electricity

USD/MWh

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Value capture via CO2 utilization has the potential to provide some impetus for deployment of capacity

over the medium term – For it to be useful from a climate perspective though the utilization will have to

support a closed loop

Sources: IPCC SRCCS, 2005. Aresta, et. al, 2007. Dowell et al. Nature Climate Change, 2017. Wallace & Kuuskra, NETL, 2014.

Achieving current carbon mitigation targets

will require utilization with long term storage

at the gigatonne scale.

Other than utilization for EOR, the permanent

storage with utilization options is questionable.

There is still potential to expand CO2 use in

EOR, but in reality that application is limited in

scale.0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Utilization Global CO2-EOR

Urea

Capt. CO2

Capacity

MtCO2/year

Methanol

Carbonates

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The integration of renewable power has led to considerable changes in how the fossil-fired power

plant fleet is being dispatched relative to a decade ago

MITEI Analysis

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Cycling and a shift from baseload to peaking capacity in combined cycle units are some of the

operational changes we will increasingly observe

MITEI Analysis

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The role of CCUS in delivering low-carbon electricity remains unclear, however deep economy-wide

decarbonization will likely need other energy carriers (e.g. Hydrogen)

Sources: EIA, 2018

Fossil or Bio with CCS

Electrolysis

Fossil or Bio with CCS

VRE Power

(wind, solar)

Low Carbon Electric Power Low Carbon Hydrogen

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The exact integration of hydrogen into the energy system is uncertain but numerous opportunities

exist both on the supply and demand side

Sources: MITEI

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Not all hydrogen are created equal – The role of hydrogen in economy-wide deep decarbonization is

dependent on how hydrogen is produced

Sources: MITEI

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The global fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) car stock reached 8 000 units in April 2018. The United

States represents the largest fleet with 4 500 FCEV

Sources: EIA 2019

Total FCEV fleet

Toyota Mirai ($57,500)

Fuel Economy = 106 km/kg H2

Tank ~ 5 kg

Range = 550 km (340 miles)

Japan has more than twice as many fueling stations relative to the US (100 vs. 38)

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Exploring the life cycle greenhouse emissions of various hydrogen pathways relative to vehicle types

Sources: MITEI Analysis

- Car models chosen to facilitate apples-apples comparisons—i.e., minimize differences in non-

powertrain features.

Interior

volume (ft3): 115 115 117 116 113

Toyota

Camry

ICEV

Toyota

Camry

HEV

Honda

Clarity

PHEV

Honda

Clarity

BEV

Honda

Clarity

FCEV

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GHG Emissions for Mid-size Sedans with Different Powertrains

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

1,40

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

ToyotaCamryICEV

ToyotaCamryHEV

HondaClarityPHEV

HondaClarityBEV

HondaClarityFCEV

gCO₂e/mi

fuelconsumption

fuelproduction

vehicleproduction

1. BEV emissions per mile ~ 55% emissions of comparable ICEVs.

2. Increased emissions from battery & fuel (electricity) production are more than

offset by increased powertrain efficiency (MPG).

3. HEV emissions per mile fall between ICEV and BEV emissions.

4. FCEVS: more later.

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Hydrogen value chain should be significantly scaled-up to have an impact in the current energy

system – 2018 H2 production ~10 Mtons (1.2 EJ) vs. 2018 energy demand ~101.2 Quad (106.8 EJ)

Sources: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 2018

Hydrogen

Generation

?

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Key Takeaways

- Understanding the evolving energy system requires new analytical methods and tools that allow

exploration of system level interactions and perform cross sectoral comparisons.

- Impacts arising from standard vs. best practices can have a significant impact such as in

California’s natural gas fleet.

- The shift in energy system from isolated to integrated and from centralized to distributed is hard to

characterize. High temporal and geospatial resolution is a must for any accurate analysis.

- CCUS is essential for deep decarbonization especially for sectors that are hard to electrify.

- For electric power sector CCUS has a role to play as the global fossil power plant fleet is

young.

- The changes in how the fossil-fired power plant fleet is being dispatched will be a technical

challenge for CCUS deployment

- Meaningful climate change mitigation efforts must target all sectors, not just power – the versatility

of H2 makes it an appealing energy carrier to serve traditionally difficult-to-electrify end uses.

- For light duty transportation (FCEV), hydrogen production determine the ranking among other

options. FCEV GHGs ~quadruple with H2 from coal gasification vs. electrolysis + wind.

- Due to growth of renewable power, there is a growing need for long-term/seasonal energy

storage.

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Emre Gençer

Thank you

energy.mit.edu @mitenergy

egencer@mit.edu