Exploring Emotions on #auspol: Polarity and Public Performance in the Twitter Debate on Australian PoliticsDr. Theresa Sauter and Assoc. Prof. Axel Bruns, with Catherine Bub

ARC Centre of Excellence for Creative Industries and Innovation

Queensland University of Technology

Brisbane, Australia

t.sauter@qut.edu.au – a.bruns@qut.edu.au

@lena_sauter – @snurb_dot_info

http://mappingonlinepublics.net/

TIMELINE

• Nov. 2007: Kevin Rudd (Labor) wins the federal election

• Dec. 2009: Tony Abbott (Liberal) becomes Opposition Leader

• June 2010: Kevin Rudd is replaced by his Deputy, Julia Gillard (Labor)

• Aug. 2010: Julia Gillard narrowly wins the federal election

Labor minority government, supported by Greens and Independents

Labor introduces Emissions Trading Scheme amid fierce opposition

Poor opinion polls for Gillard, continuing Labor leadership tension

Several unsuccessful leadership challenges by Kevin Rudd

• June 2013: Rudd wins leadership challenge, becomes PM again, calls election

• 4 Aug. – 7 Sep. 2013: 2013 Australian federal election campaign

• Sep. 2013: Tony Abbott wins the federal election

BACKGROUND

• Research projects:– ARC Discovery: New Media and Public Communication (QUT)– NRC FRISAM: Impact of Social Media on Agenda-Setting in Election

Campaigns (QUT, UiO, UiB, Uppsala, CSU LB)– ATN-DAAD: Mapping Networked Politics (QUT, LMU)

• Study design:– Long-term capture of the #auspol hashtag– Selection of two key periods in recent Australian politics– Quantitative analysis + manual coding (with thanks to Catherine Bub)– Further qualitative exploration of tweets and profiles– Work in progress

AUSTRALIAN POLITICS AND #AUSPOL

• #auspol:– Long-standing hashtag for the discussion of Australian politics on Twitter– Very high volume of tweets, strongly concentrated community– Traditionally highly belligerent, dominated by conservatives (?)

• Australian politics on Twitter:– Substantial political discussion within and outside #auspol– Large network of politics-focussed accounts, not all participating in #auspol– Alternative hashtags also well-frequented – especially #ausvotes during elections

AUSTRALIAN TWITTERSPHERE (EARLY 2012)

PerthMarketing / PR

DesignWeb

Creative

FarmingAgriculture

HardlineConservatives

ConservativesJournalists

ALPProgressives

Greens

News

OpinionNews

NGOsSocial Policy

ITTech

Social MediaTechPR

Advertising

Real EstateProperty

JobsHR

Business

BusinessProperty

Parenting

Mums CraftArts

FoodWine

Beer

Adelaide

SocialICTs

CreativeDesign

FashionBeauty

UtilitiesServices

Net Culture

BooksLiteraturePublishing

Film

TheatreArts

RadioTV Music

DanceHip Hop

Triple J

TalkbackBreakfast TVCelebritiesCycling

Union

NRL

Football

CricketAFL

SwimmingV8s

Evangelicals

Teachinge-Learning

Schools

ChristiansHillsong

Teens

Jonas Bros.Beliebers

Australian Bands

@KRuddMP

@JuliaGillard

#AUSPOL (EARLY 2012)

Follower/followee network:~120,000 Australian Twitter users(of ~950,000 known accounts by early 2012) colour = #auspol tweets, size = indegree

#AUSVOTES (2010 ELECTION)

Follower/followee network:~120,000 Australian Twitter users(of ~950,000 known accounts by early 2012) colour = #ausvotes tweets, size = indegree

#AUSPOL 2013

Rudd/Gillard leadership challenge

(unsuccessful)

Rudd/Gillard leadership challenge

(successful)

1 2

THE #AUSPOL COMMUNITY

• Mid-May to mid-June 2013:

• July 2013:

• Core group:– 10% most active

contributors dominant:– 84% tweets (May-June)– 81% tweets (July)

– Lead users (1%):– 49% tweets (May-June)– 44% tweets (July)

• Interactive:– 65% of tweets are

@replies or retweets (steady across May-June / July periods)

• Stable:– Composition of lead user

group largely consistent

• Mid-May to mid-June 2013:

• July 2013:

SELECTIONOF ACCOUNTS• Patterns:

– One hyperactive anti-ALP account: original tweets with URLs

– Some retweet-only accounts

– Remaining lead group: 1700-4000 #auspol tweets per month

• Selection:– Six accounts for each

phase– Top six senders of

@replies in #auspol– Four accounts in both

phases + 2 unique accounts for phase 1 and 2 each

– Names anonymised

CODING OF TWEETS

• Approach:– Every 10th tweet coded:

• Attitude towards political party (-5 to +5), for ALP, Liberals, Greens, Others, Mixed

• Attitude towards fellow users (-5 to +5),for general accounts and media accounts

– Averaging of attitude ratings for each user and each period– Comparison across periods

THE USERS: MID-MAY TO MID-JUNE

Observations:• Tone towards other users:

– Generally neutral to negative (-0.14 to -0.47)

– Except 4: +0.17

• Tone towards parties:– Vocally negative towards

Liberals– Quietly positive towards Labor

used to attack more than support parties

– Except 6: strongly negative towards ALP, support for UKIP

Tone towards PartiesUser ALP (#) Lib (#)

1 0.1 (20) -0.73 (97)

2 0.15 (13) -0.57 (107)

3 1.37 (8) -1.03 (105)

4 1.67 (18) -1.05 (41)

5 0.5 (8) -1.08 (111)

6 -2.18 (28) 2.67 (3)

THE USERS: JULY

Observations:• Tone towards other users:

– Generally neutral (-0.23 to +0.13)

• Tone towards parties:– Vocally negative towards Liberals –

no change– Positive towards Labor– Mixed response to leadership

change– Still mainly used to attack rather

than support parties

• More negative towards media

Tone towards PartiesUser ALP (#) Lib (#)

1 0.5 ↗ (20) -1.02 (85)

2 0.86 ↗ (7) -0.60 (123)

3 0.83 ↘ (6) -1.46 (96)

4 0.27 ↘ (22) -1.06 (47)

7 0.14 (7) -1.06 (76)

8 1.09 (33) -1.04 (117)

@MENTIONS MAY-JUNE

#auspol accounts with degree ≥ 100Size = degree, colour = party (politicians only)

RETWEETS MAY-JUNE

#auspol accounts with degree ≥ 100Edges which are ≥ 66% retweets only

@REPLIES MAY-JUNE

#auspol accounts with degree ≥ 100Edges which are ≤ 33% retweets only

@MENTIONS JULY

#auspol accounts with degree ≥ 100Size = degree, colour = party (politicians only)

RETWEETS JULY

#auspol accounts with degree ≥ 100Edges which are ≥ 66% retweets only

@REPLIES JULY

#auspol accounts with degree ≥ 100Edges which are ≤ 33% retweets only

#AUSPOL ACCORDING TO VOTECOMPASS

http://votecompass.com/2013/07/25/are-you-among-australias-most-influential-political-tweeters-votecompass-maps-the-auspol-twittersphere/

REFLECTIONS

• #auspol lead user activity:– Not as conservative-dominated as previously assumed– Several overlapping trends:

• Highly partisan retweet networks• Cross-party @replying: criticism of opposition politicians and engagement

with fellow #auspol contributors– More criticism than support of parties and leading candidates

• Highly discursive users in our May-June / July samples:– Mostly anti-Liberal (but no clear indication of wider #auspol patterns)– Split between anti-Liberal cluster and network centre– Mixed reaction to Gillard/Rudd leadership change

– to be continued…

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