Explaining the extraordinary: operational oceanography in Australia

David Griffin

Madeleine Cahill, Jim Mansbridge

“Yesterday’s news is today’s fish-and-chips wrapper”

When something extraordinary happens, the number of people interested drops rapidly every day.

In this talk, we’ll discuss how we’ve been satisfying the public demand for ocean information, using data sometimes a week old.

Following talks pickup the thread of ocean forecasting

The infant status of operational oceanography is demonstrated by how we dealt with the following cases

20 deg in winter? Global warming?

Zoom out a bit: WC unusual in Sept

Just a localised anomaly, really.If not global warming, then what?

#2: 15 deg in summer? Please explain

No, its not cold currents from the south

Its just cold water from 300m

Coming up onto the shelf, and the beach

But why? Watch this cyclone develop:

14 Feb

15 Feb

16 Feb

17 Feb

18 Feb

19 Feb

20 Feb

21 Feb

22 Feb

23 Feb

23 Feb zoom in. Cold at Newcastle!

Pansouth

Argo pr1

Argo pr2

Argo profile 1:

Argo profile 2

• Also in February, two very strong (strongest since 1995?) upwellings occurred of SA-Vic.

• Explanation relatively simple, and

• Prediction of a third event proved correct

Adelaide Advertiser:

This has been running for 3yr now. Interest is growing, but:

• quality is decreasing, not increasing

• T/P: finished Oct 2005

• Envisat: USO problem Feb-Jul 2006

• GFO: batteries failing Aug 2006 - present

• Jason: 18d gap in Nov 2006. No more NRTSSHA

How many altimeters does it taketo adequately initialise a forecast?

Thank you