Explaining ElectionsExplaining Elections Lawrence R. JacobsLawrence R. Jacobs Director, Center for...

Explaining ElectionsExplaining Elections

Lawrence R. JacobsLawrence R. Jacobs

Director, Center for the Study of Politics & GovernanceDirector, Center for the Study of Politics & Governance

Humphrey Institute, University of MinnesotaHumphrey Institute, University of Minnesota

Presidential ElectionPresidential Election

STACKING THE DECKSTACKING THE DECK

• Party identification: Growing Dem Advantage

Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2000-2007 yearly averages; 2008 data from September 29, 2008

Source : MPR News/Humphrey Institute Survey, October 21-26, 2004, October 23-28, 2006, and October 24-28, 2008

ECONOMIC 9/11ECONOMIC 9/11

Source : MPR News/Humphrey Institute Survey, October 24-28, 2008

OBAMA BENEFITS FROM DEBATE ON OBAMA BENEFITS FROM DEBATE ON ECONOMY RATHER THAN TERRORISMECONOMY RATHER THAN TERRORISM


BUSH DRAGBUSH DRAG


WRONG TRACKWRONG TRACK


OBAMA'S ENTHUSIASM GAPOBAMA'S ENTHUSIASM GAP


U.S. SENATE SEATS TO WATCH FOR DEMS TO U.S. SENATE SEATS TO WATCH FOR DEMS TO BREAK FILIBUSTER (60)BREAK FILIBUSTER (60)

State Incumbent

Alaska Ted Stevens (R), Mark Begich (D)

Colorado Bob Schaffer (R), Mark Udall (D)

Georgia* Saxby Chambliss (R), Jim Martin (D), Allen Buckley (L)

Kentucky Mitch McConnell (R), Bruce Lunsford (D)

Minnesota Norm Coleman (R), Al Franken (D)

Mississippi Roger Wicker (R), Ronnie Musgrove (D)

New Hampshire John Sununu (R), Jeanne Shaheen (D)

New Mexico Steve Pearce (R), Tom Udall (D)

North Carolina Elizabeth Dole (R), Kay Hagan (D)

Oregon Gordon Smith (R), Jeff Merkley (D)

Virginia Jim Gilmore (R), Mark Warner (D)

Note: Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia are open seats, all previously held by Republicans. *December runoff if no candidate reaches 50%

CLOSEST ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALSCLOSEST ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALS

OTHER ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALSOTHER ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALS

Minnesota House ElectionsMinnesota House Elections

District Region DFL Republican Third Party

13A Freeport Bruce Shuck Paul Anderson

22B Worthington Richard Peterson Rod Hamilton*

41A Edina Kevin Staunton Keith Downey Ron Erhardt* (Independent)

41B Bloomington Paul Rosenthal Jan Schneider

48B Anoka Andrew Boho Jim Abeler*

49B Coon Rapids Jerry Newton Jake Cimenski

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OVERRIDE 6?WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OVERRIDE 6?

District RegionBush MoV in 2004

Pawlenty MoV in 2006

DFL Republican Third Party

12A Brainerd 13.0 5.6 John Ward* David Pundt

12B Little Falls 17.0 11.0 Al Doty* Mike LeMieur

17B North Branch 12.5 11.6 Jeremy Kalin* Don Taylor

29B Rochester 4.1 14.8 Kim Norton* Jason Johnson

37A Apple Valley 3.7 11.3 Shelly Madore* Tara Mack

51A (open) Blaine 5.6 8.0 Shawn Hamilton Tim Sanders Daniel Sanders (IP)

53A Shoreview 7.4 14.1 Paul Gardner* John Kappler

56A Lake Elmo 5.2 14.7 Julie Bunn* Kathy Lohmer

56B Woodbury 6.4 17.0 Marsha Swails* Lee Bohlsen

VULNERABLE DFL SEATS HELD BY FIRST VULNERABLE DFL SEATS HELD BY FIRST TERM HOUSE MEMBERSTERM HOUSE MEMBERS

Explaining ElectionsExplaining Elections Lawrence R. JacobsLawrence R. Jacobs Director, Center for...

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