Expert Group Meeting on Measuring Population ageing ...€¦ · LatinAmerica Guatemala Mexico...
17
Expert Group Meeting on Measuring Population ageing: bridging research and policy Population Division, DESA, IIASA, Chulalongkorn University, ESCAP SILVIA ELENA GIORGULI SAUCEDO Professor and President, El Colegio de México BANGKOK, 25-26 FEBRUARY, 2019
Transcript of Expert Group Meeting on Measuring Population ageing ...€¦ · LatinAmerica Guatemala Mexico...
Expert Group Meeting on Measuring Population ageing: bridging research and policy
Population Division, DESA, IIASA, Chulalongkorn University, ESCAP
SILVIA ELENA GIORGULI SAUCEDO
Professor and President, El Colegio de México
BANGKOK, 25-26 FEBRUARY, 2019
Heterogeneous timing in population changebut demographic convergence in Latin America
(the cases of Guatemala, Uruguay and Mexico)
Selected demographic indicators 1950-2050, LatinAmerica, Guatemala, Mexico and Uruguay
Source: CELADE - Population Division of ECLAC. 2016 Revision. Available at: https://www.cepal.org/es/temas/proyecciones-demograficas/estimaciones-proyecciones-poblacion-total-urbana-rural-economicamente-activa
Latin America Guatemala Mexico Uruguay
Total Fertility Rate
1950-55 5.9 7.2 6.8 2.7
2000-05 2.5 4.4 2.6 2.2
2020-25 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.9
2050-55 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.7
Life expectancy
1950-55 51.9 41.5 48.0 66.2
2000-05 72.5 67.9 74.4 74.8
2020-25 76.9 74.3 77.9 78.1
2050-55 82.3 80.5 83.0 82.8
Population in Latin America by age groups, 1950-2050
Source: CELADE - Population Divisionof ECLAC. 2017 Revision. Available at: https://www.cepal.org/es/temas/proyecciones-demograficas/estimaciones-proyecciones-poblacion-total-urbana-rural-economicamente-activa
0
50 000 000
100 000 000
150 000 000
200 000 000
250 000 000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0-19 years 20-39 years 40-59 years 60 years and over
Selected demographic indicators 1950-2050, LatinAmerica, Guatemala, Mexico and Uruguay
Source: CELADE - Population Division of ECLAC. 2016 Revision. Available at: https://www.cepal.org/es/temas/proyecciones-demograficas/estimaciones-proyecciones-poblacion-total-urbana-rural-economicamente-activa
LatinAmerica
Guatemala Mexico Uruguay
Total Fertility Rate
1950-55 5.9 7.2 6.8 2.7
2000-05 2.5 4.4 2.6 2.2
2020-25 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.9
2050-55 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.7
Life expectancy at birth
1950-55 51.9 41.5 48.0 66.2
2000-05 72.5 67.9 74.4 74.8
2020-25 76.9 74.3 77.9 78.1
2050-55 82.3 80.5 83.0 82.8
Population by age groups in Guatemala, Mexico and Uruguay, 1950-2050
Source: CELADE - Population Division of ECLAC. 2016 Revision. Available at: https://www.cepal.org/es/temas/proyecciones-demograficas/estimaciones-proyecciones-poblacion-total-urbana-rural-economicamente-activa
0‐19 years 20‐39 years 40‐59 years 60 years and over
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
6 000 000
7 000 000
8 000 000
9 000 000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 0
5 000 000
10 000 000
15 000 000
20 000 000
25 000 000
30 000 000
35 000 000
40 000 000
45 000 000
50 000 000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Guatemala Mexico Uruguay
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Different timing in age dependency ratios, demographic dividends and ageing
Latin America. Evolution of the Dependency Ratio (per 100), 1950-2050
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Source: Own elaboration based on CELADE - Population Division of ECLAC. 2016 Revision. Available at: https://www.cepal.org/es/temas/proyecciones-demograficas/estimaciones-proyecciones-poblacion-total-urbana-rural-economicamente-activa
Evolution of the Dependency Ratio (per 100), region and countries selected, 1950-2050
Sour
ce: O
wn
elab
orat
ion
base
don
CEL
AD
E -P
opul
atio
nD
ivis
ion
of E
CLA
C. 2
016
Rev
isio
n. A
vaila
ble
at: h
ttps
://w
ww
.cep
al.o
rg/e
s/te
mas
/pro
yecc
ione
s-de
mog
rafic
as/e
stim
acio
nes-
proy
ecci
ones
-pob
laci
on-t
otal
-urb
ana-
rura
l-ec
onom
icam
ente
-act
iva
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Latin America Guatemala México Uruguay
Total and old-age dependency ratios in Guatemala, Mexico and Uruguay, 1950-2050
Source: CELADE - Population Division of ECLAC. 2016 Revision. Available at: https://www.cepal.org/es/temas/proyecciones-demograficas/estimaciones-proyecciones-poblacion-total-urbana-rural-economicamente-activa and IIASA estiamtes for the Prospective Old-Age Dependecy Ratio
0
5 000 000
10 000 000
15 000 000
20 000 000
25 000 000
30 000 000
35 000 000
40 000 000
45 000 000
50 000 000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Guatemala Mexico Uruguay
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Total Dependency Ratio Old-Age Dependency Ratio Prospective Old-Age Dependency Ratio
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 20500.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Guatemala Mexico Uruguay
Total and old age population growth (1000), 1950-2050, Latin America
Sour
ce: C
ELA
DE
-Po
pula
tion
Div
isio
nof
EC
LAC
. 201
6 R
evis
ion.
Ava
ilabl
eat
: htt
ps://
ww
w.c
epal
.org
/es/
tem
as/p
roye
ccio
nes-
dem
ogra
ficas
/est
imac
ione
s-pr
oyec
cion
es-p
obla
cion
-tot
al-u
rban
a-ru
ral-
econ
omic
amen
te-a
ctiv
a
Labor participation rates after (population 60 and over), 1980-2050, Latin America
Sour
ce: C
ELA
DE
-Po
pula
tion
Div
isio
nof
EC
LAC
. 201
6 R
evis
ion.
Ava
ilabl
eat
: htt
ps://
ww
w.c
epal
.org
/es/
tem
as/p
roye
ccio
nes-
dem
ogra
ficas
/est
imac
ione
s-pr
oyec
cion
es-p
obla
cion
-tot
al-u
rban
a-ru
ral-
econ
omic
amen
te-a
ctiv
a
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046
2049
60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84
Men
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84
Women
Labor participation rates after (population 60 and over), 2020, Guatemala, Mexico and Uruguay
Sour
ce: C
ELA
DE
-Po
pula
tion
Div
isio
nof
EC
LAC
. 201
6 R
evis
ion.
Ava
ilabl
eat
: htt
ps://
ww
w.c
epal
.org
/es/
tem
as/p
roye
ccio
nes-
dem
ogra
ficas
/est
imac
ione
s-pr
oyec
cion
es-p
obla
cion
-tot
al-u
rban
a-ru
ral-
econ
omic
amen
te-a
ctiv
a
Agegroup
Men Women Men Women Men Women
60-64 62 40 77 33 83 33
65-69 38 22 63 24 73 27
70-74 18 9 44 17 65 22
Uruguay Mexico Guatemala
The demographic dividend and the ageing processes are linked
WORKING AGE POPULATION AGEING
-Human Capital investment.-Characteristics of the labor market-Informal labor market
-Care system-Pension system
WELFARE REGIME
Latin America. Distribution of educational attainment by agegroup, 2000 and 2030
Source: Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, (2015). Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer Version 1.2 Available at: www.wittgensteincentre.org/dataexplorer
2000 2030
Distribution of educational attainment by age group. Guatemala, Mexico and Uruguay, 2030
Source: Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, (2015). Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer Version 1.2 Available at: www.wittgensteincentre.org/dataexplorer
Guatemala
Mexico
Uruguay
