Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood...

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Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar University of Arizona Department of Hydrology and Water Resources April 27, 2005

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Page 1: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S.

Andy Wood

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

SeminarUniversity of Arizona

Department of Hydrology and Water Resources

April 27, 2005

Page 2: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Outline

Introduction to seasonal forecasting and forecasting systembackgroundclimate forecastsVIC model spin-up

index station approachSNOTEL assimilation

Selected results for 2004 and current forecast season

Ongoing work (hydrologic nowcasting & …)

Page 3: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

The importance of Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting

water management hydropower

irrigationflood controlwater supply

fisheriesrecreationnavigation

water quality

Aug Dec Apr

Res

ervo

ir S

tora

ge

Aug

Page 4: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Introduction: A definition of useful terms

A short poem by someone not primarily known as a poet

The Unknown

As we know,There are known knowns.There are things we know we know.

We also knowThere are known unknowns.That is to sayWe know there are some thingsWe know we do not know.

But there are also unknown unknowns,The ones we don't knowWe don't know.

Feb. 12, 2002 Department of Defense news briefing Donald Rumsfeld

(Disclaimer: the use of this ‘poem’ does not represent a comment on US military policy…)

Page 5: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Apr 1 SM

Apr 1 SWE

Apr-Sep climate

Seasonal Forecasting: What do we know and when do we know it?

The primary factors determining summer runoff are generally: SWE at the start of melt (e.g., April 1) Soil moisture at the start of the forecasted runoff period (e.g, April 1) April-September Climate

the

Do

n

Ru

msf

eld

sca

le

Page 6: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Sn

ow w

ater

con

ten

t on

Ap

ril

1

April to August runoff

McLean, D.A., 1948 Western Snow Conf.

SNOTEL Network

Introduction: Hydrologic prediction and the NRCS

PNW

Page 7: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Technical Advances related to Hydrologic Forecasting

1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

snow survey / graphical forecasts /

index methods / i.e., regression

computing in water

resources

aerial snow

surveys

SNOTEL network

ESP method

snow cats

conceptualhydrologic

models

Page 8: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Introduction: Hydrologic prediction and ESP

NWS River Forecast Center (RFC) approach:

rainfall-runoff modeling(i.e., NWS River Forecast System,

Anderson, 1973 offspring of Stanford Watershed Model, Crawford & Linsley, 1966)

Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)

• used for shorter lead predictions;• ~ used for longer lead predictions

Currently, some western RFCs and NRCS coordinate their seasonal forecasts, using mostly statistical methods.

ICsSpin-up Forecast

obs

recently observedmeteorological data

ensemble of met. datato generate forecast

ESP forecast

hydrologicstate

Page 9: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Technical Advances related to Hydrologic Forecasting

1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

snow survey / graphical forecasts /

index methods / i.e., regression

computing in water

resources

satelliteimagery

aerial snow

surveys desktopcomputing

SNOTEL network

ESP method

ENSO / seasonal climate

forecasts

snow catsInternet / real-time

data

conceptualhydrologic

models

physicalhydrologic

models

Page 10: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

UW Forecast System Overview

Page 11: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Forecast System Overview

NCDC met. station obs.

up to 2-4 months from

current

local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs

soil moisturesnowpack

Hydrologic model spin up

SNOTEL

Update

streamflow, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, runoff

25th Day, Month 01-2 years back

LDAS/other real-time

met. forcings for spin-up

gap

Hydrologic forecast simulation

Month 6 - 12

INITIAL STATE

SNOTEL/ MODIS*Update

ensemble forecasts ESP traces (40) CPC-based outlook (13) NCEP CFS ensemble (20) NSIPP-1 ensemble (9)

* experimental, not yet in real-time product

Page 12: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting

Soil MoistureInitial

Condition

SnowpackInitial Condition

Page 13: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting

VIC model runoff is routed to streamflow gages, and verified against observations

Page 14: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting

targeted statistics e.g., runoff volumes

monthly hydrographs

Page 15: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting

SWE Soil MoistureRunoffPrecip Temp

Mar-05

Apr-05

May-05

Page 16: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Outline

Introduction to seasonal forecasting and forecasting systembackgroundclimate forecastsVIC model spin-up

SNOTEL assimilation

Selected results for 2004 and current forecast season

Ongoing work (hydrologic nowcasting & …)

Page 17: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Climate Forecasts: Operational Products

Page 18: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Climate Forecasts: Use in UW forecast system

ESP

ENSO/PDO

ENSO

CPC Official Outlooks

Coupled Forecast

Model (CFS)

CAS

OCN

SMLR

CCA

CA

NSIPP-1 dynamical

model

VIC Hydrology Model

NOAA

NASA

UW

Seasonal Climate Forecast Data Sources

Page 19: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Climate Forecasts: Spatial Scale Issues

Seattle

Page 20: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Climate Forecasts: Bias Issue (prior NCEP model)

Sample GSM cell located over Ohio River basin

obs prcp GSM prcp

obs temp GSM temp

JULY

Regional Bias: spatial example

obsGSM

Page 21: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Climate Forecasts: Bias Correction Scheme

from COOP observations

from GSM climatological runsraw GSM forecast scenario

bias-corrected forecast scenario

month mmonth m

Page 22: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Climate Forecasts: CPC Seasonal Outlooks

e.g., precipitation

Page 23: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

spatial unit for raw forecasts is the Climate Division (102 for U.S.)

CDFs defined by 13 percentile values (0.025 - 0.975) for P and T are given

Climate Forecasts: CPC Seasonal Outlook Use

Page 24: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Climate Forecasts: CPC Seasonal Outlook Use

probabilities => anomalies

precipitation

Page 25: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

VIC initial state: Merging of SNOTEL obs with model SWE

The pattern of observed SWE values, which are merged with the forecast initial conditions, is usually in pretty good agreement with the VIC simulated snow state.

The PNW currently has very low snowpack, while the Southwest and California have record high snowpacks.

Page 26: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

VIC initial state: SNOTEL assimilation

Assimilation Method• weight station OBS’ influence over VIC cell based on distance and

elevation difference• number of stations influencing a given cell depends on specified

influence distances

spatial weighting function

elevationweightingfunction

SNOTEL/ASP

VIC cell

• distances “fit”: OBS weighting increased throughout season

• OBS anomalies applied to VIC long term means, combined with VIC-simulated SWE

• adjustment specific to each VIC snow band

Page 27: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

VIC initial state: SNOTEL assimilation

April 25, 2004

Page 28: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Outline

Introduction to seasonal forecasting and forecasting systembackgroundclimate forecastsVIC model spin-up

SNOTEL assimilation

Selected results for 2004 and current forecast season

Ongoing work (hydrologic nowcasting & …)

Final comments

Page 29: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results for Winter 2003-04: initial conditionsSoil Moisture and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

Page 30: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results for Winter 2003-04: initial conditionsSoil Moisture and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

Page 31: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results for Winter 2003-04: initial conditionsSoil Moisture and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

Page 32: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results for Winter 2003-04: initial conditionsSoil Moisture and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

Page 33: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results for Winter 2003-04: initial conditionsCPC estimates of seasonal precipitation and temperature

very dry hot

March

Page 34: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results for Winter 2003-04: initial conditionsSoil Moisture and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

Page 35: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results for Winter 2003-04: streamflow hydrographs

By Fall, slightly low flows were anticipated

By winter, moderate deficits were forecasted

Page 36: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results for Winter 2003-04: volume runoff forecasts

UPPER HUMBOLDT RIVER BASIN

Streamflow Forecasts - May 1, 2003

  <==== Drier === Future Conditions === Wetter ====>  

Forecast Pt ============ Chance of Exceeding * ===========  

   Forecast 90% 70% 50% (Most Prob) 30% 10% 30 Yr Avg

   Period (1000AF) (1000AF) (1000AF) (% AVG.) (1000AF) (1000AF) (1000AF)

MARY'S R nr Deeth, Nv

APR-JUL 12.3       18.7       23       59       27       34       39      

MAY-JUL 4.5       11.3       16.0       55       21       28       29      

LAMOILLE CK nr Lamoille, Nv

APR-JUL 13.7       17.4       20       67       23       26       30      

MAY-JUL 11.6       15.4       18.0       64       21       24       28      

N F HUMBOLDT R at Devils Gate

APR-JUL 5.1       11.0       15.0       44       19.0       25       34      

MAY-JUL 1.7       7.2       11.0       50       14.8       20       22      

Page 37: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results for Winter 2003-04: volume runoff forecastsComparison with NWRFC forecast for Columbia River at the Dalles, OR

UW forecasts made on 25th of each month

RFC forecasts madeseveral times monthly:1st, mid-month, late

(UW’sESP unconditional and CPC forecasts shown)

UW RFC

79%obs

Page 38: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results for Winter 2003-04: volume runoff forecastsComparison with RFC forecast for Feather River, CA

UW forecasts made on 25th of each month

RFC forecasts madeon 1st of month

(UW’sESP unconditional forecasts shown)

UW

RFC

78%obs

Page 39: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results for Winter 2003-04: volume forecasts

for a sample of PNW locations

JAN 1, 2004 Summer Runoff Volume Forecasts compared to OBS

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

MIC

AA

DU

NC

A

LIB

BY

HH

OR

S

JLA

KE

LG

RA

N

DW

OR

S

DA

LL

E

pe

rce

nt

of

av

era

ge

OBS %avgRFCUW ESP

Page 40: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results for Winter 2003-04: volume forecasts

for a sample of PNW locations

APR 1, 2004 Summer Runoff Volume Forecasts compared to OBS

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

MIC

AA

DU

NC

A

LIB

BY

HH

OR

S

JLA

KE

LGR

AN

DW

OR

S

DA

LLE

per

cen

t o

f av

erag

e

OBS %avgRFCUW ESP

Page 41: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

WY2005, Dec. 1 hydrologic conditions

Page 42: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

WY2005, Dec. 1 hydrologic conditions

Page 43: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

WY2005, Jan. 1 hydrologic conditions

Page 44: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

WY2005, Feb. 1 hydrologic conditions

Page 45: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

PNW in crisis?: Headlines from February, 1977

Page 46: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Comparison: Columbia R. basin upstream of The Dalles, OR

WY2005

WY1977

WY2005

WY1977

Page 47: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results: WY2005, Feb. 1 streamflow forecasts

SNOTEL / Env. Canada ASP network is a valuable source of snowpack information.

The observed SWE values, which are merged with the forecast initial conditions, were in good agreement with the simulated snow state.

98%

80%85%1977: 55%

Page 48: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

WY2005, Mar. 1 hydrologic conditions

Page 49: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

WY2005, Apr. 1 hydrologic conditions

Page 50: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

4/15 ESP forecast: WY2005 Precip, Temp

Yakima R. Basin near

Parker, WA

plots show current + forecast(ESP; min, max and quartiles)

against historical 1971-2000min, max and quartiles

Page 51: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Apr-Sep % of avg3/15 4/15 chg

max 61 570.75 46 500.50 41 450.25 39 42min 31 39

4/15 ESP forecast: WY2005 SM, SWE, RO

Page 52: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Ongoing Work: Involvement with Operational Groups

A major goal of this work is to transition successful approaches intooperational settings.

Progress on this front:

Involvement with NRCS National Water and Climate Center (Tom Pagano!)

Involvement with NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) e.g., related to Drought Outlook

Outreach to PNW water and power community through the UW Climate Impacts Group

e.g., to WA State Executive Water Emergency Committee

Page 53: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Outline

Introduction to seasonal forecasting and forecasting systembackgroundclimate forecastsVIC model spin-up

SNOTEL assimilation

Selected results for 2004 and current forecast season

Ongoing work (hydrologic nowcasting & …)

Page 54: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Ongoing work (nowcast & …)

snow state update using MODIS

multi-model (land-surface in addition to climate)

west-wide expansionmore forecast pointsmore comprehensive outputsreorganized web-sitemore verificationmore involvement with operational groups

surface water monitor

Page 55: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Ongoing Work: use of remote sensing

Trenchant remarks on remote imaging of the land surface

Oh my goodness gracious,What you can buy off the InternetIn terms of overhead photography!

June 9, 2001, following European trip

Satellite products with potential for hydrology (short list):MODIS snow-covered areaAMSR-E passive microwave-based SWEvarious microwave based soil moisture products

Page 56: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Ongoing work: MODIS snow cover assimilation (Snake R. trial)

Snowcover BEFORE update

Snowcover AFTER update

MODIS update for April 1, 2004 Forecast

snowadded

removed

Page 57: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Ongoing work: Rationale for Multi-model forecast framework

Single-IC ensemble forecast:

early in seasonal forecast season, climate ensemble spread is large

errors in forecast mainly due to climate forecast errors

ensemblemember

ensemblemean

OBS

Page 58: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Ongoing work: Rationale for Multi-model forecast framework

Single-IC ensemble forecast:

late in seasonal forecast season, climate ensemble is nearly deterministic

errors in forecast mainly due to IC errors

ensemblemember

ensemblemean

OBS

Page 59: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

dailyupdates

1-2 day lag

soil moisture& SWEpercentiles

½ degreeresolution

archive from1915-current

uses ~2130index stns

Page 60: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Ongoing Work: UW SW Monitor

trends:1 week2 week1 month

Page 61: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Ongoing Work: UW SW Monitor

Archive from 1915-current

current conditions are a productof the same simulation (samemethods, ~same stations) ashistorical conditions

allows comparison of current conditions with historical ones

can navigate by month or year

Page 62: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Ongoing Work: UW SW Monitor

Page 63: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Ongoing Work: UW SW Monitor

Yakima R. Basin near

Parkr, WA

Page 64: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Ongoing Work:UW SW Monitor

Yakima R. Basin near

Parkr, WA

why the high soil moisture percentiles?

appears to have been relatively cold in last several weeks

Page 65: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Ongoing Work: UW SW Monitor

soil moisture actually decreasing, but relative to normal conditions at this time, percentile still high

Page 66: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Ongoing Work:UW SW Monitor

runoff is nearer to normal than soil moisture

Page 67: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Final Thought

Words of inspiration for researchers everywhere

A trained ape can know an awful lotOf what is going on in this world,Just by punching on his mouseFor a relatively modest cost!

June 9, 2001, following European trip

Page 68: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

END

Page 69: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Framework: Downscaling CPC outlooks

downscaling uses Shaake Shuffle (Clark et al., J. of Hydrometeorology, Feb. 2004) to assemble monthly forecast timeseries from CPC percentile values

Page 70: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

VIC model spinup methods: index stations

Example for daily precipitation

Index stn pcp pcp percentilegridded to 1/8

degree

1/8 degree dense station monthly pcp distribution(N years for each 1/8 degree grid cell)

1/8 degree pcpdisagg. to dailyusing interpolated daily fractions from index stations

monthly

0 1 0 1

Page 71: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Ongoing Work: UW SW Monitor

1920s 1990s

Page 72: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Average Flow, Columbia R. at The Dalles, OR

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

cfs

coop avg

coop stdev

raw cpc avg

raw cpc stdev

cpc bc avg

cpc bc stdev

Results: CPC-based flow w.r.t. UW obs dataset

Answer:

YES, with help from bias-correction..........(but)

mean

std dev

Page 73: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Average flow, Sacramento R. (input to Shasta Reservoir)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

cfs

coop avg

coop stdev

cpc raw avg

cpc raw stdev

cpc bc avg

cpc bc stdev

Results: CPC-based flow w.r.t. UW obs dataset

Additional examples show similar results

Mean pretty well reproduced; variability improved

mean

std dev

Page 74: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results: CPC temp/precip w.r.t. UW obs dataset

based on 1960-99

Page 75: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

Results: CPC temp/precip w.r.t. UW obs dataset

based on 1960-99

Page 76: Experimental real-time seasonal hydrologic nowcasting and forecasting in the western U.S. Andy Wood Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seminar.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

KA

F/M

ON

OBS VIC biascorr VIC raw

Statistical bias correction can dramatically improve streamflow simulations for use with reservoir models.

Natural Flow in the Snake River at Milner


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Nowcasting Initiative: User Requirements

Nowcasting Prices Using Google Trends

Nowcasting Prices Using Google Trends

Nowcasting Events from the Social Web with … · Nowcasting Events from the Social Web with Statistical Learning ... We present a general methodology for inferring the ... Nowcasting

Nowcasting Events from the Social Web with … · Nowcasting Events from the Social Web with Statistical Learning ... We present a general methodology for inferring the ... Nowcasting

Nowcasting in Vietnam

Nowcasting in Vietnam