Experiences with Renewable Energy in Germany Insights … · Experiences with Renewable Energy in...
Transcript of Experiences with Renewable Energy in Germany Insights … · Experiences with Renewable Energy in...
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Experiences with Renewable Energy in Germany
Insights on Cost and the Renewables Grid Initiative
Berlin, 13.03.2014
DANIEL FÜRSTENWERTH
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Agora Energiewende – an Overview
> Thinktank based in Berlin
> Mission: How to make the
German Energiewende
a success story?
> Dialogue and
scientific expertise
Paris, 14.05.2013 | Daniel Fürstenwerth 2
> A project by the Mercator Foundation and European Climate Foundation
> Financing: 2012-2017
> Independent and non-partisan
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Renewables Grid Initiative
and lessons learned from grid planning in Germany
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Electricity grids are needed to connect
power producers with consumers and
interconnect systems
The new challenge:
• New types of power
production
• European Dimension
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Renewable Grid Initiative brings together
NGOs and TSOs that share a common
goal: to integrate Renewables
“We want a grid built in time and in line with environmental
objectives and with people’s concerns”
Focus of NGOs:
„We need renewable
energies and for this the grid
– whithout negative impact
on nature and people“
„We need to ensure
security of supply – and
build power grids without
delay“
Focus of TSOs:
Source: RGI
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Focus of RGI work has developed from
European to project level
European Grid Declaration: Finding a common language and
setting basic principles
Best practice project: Sharing experience and knowledge on
what has been implemented
BESTGRID: Testing better practices and cooperating at
project level
Source: RGI
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Old World:
“[Exageration] People get
involved when the grid is
build in 6 months in 500m
proximity of their home”
Grid planing follows 4 steps – involvement
of civil society must change
How will the
power system
look like?
Grid planning
Decision by
Government/
Regulator
Building
Grid
New World:
“People get involved in the
entire planning process – via
trusted representatives or
themselves”
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German Energiewende –
Cost optimized expansion of renewable energy in
Germany (results of a study by Agora Energiewende)
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The Key Insight for the Energiewende:
„It‘s all About Wind and Solar“
9
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 2000 2010 2020* 2030*
PV Wind offshoreWind onshore Biomass and BiogasOther Renewables Hydro Power
* Forecast by German regulator Bundesnetzagentur
7% 25% 40-45% 55-60% % Renewables
RES-Power Generation in Germany, TWh
INSIGHTS FROM GERMANY'S ENERGIEWENDE
2013 2025 2035
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Two key questions for the Energiewende
that had so far not been adressed
10
• What mix and location of wind and
PV is cost-optimal?
• Ressource-driven optimization
• Consumption-driven
optimization
• What is the impact of a delay in grid
expansion?
Analysis conducted by
Erneuerbare Erzeugung und Strombedarf, 2022, Meteo-Jahr 2011, 2. Kalenderwoche
Wochentag
Leis
tung (
GW
)
Mo Di Mi Do Fr Sa So 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Biomasse Grundlast
Biomasse wärmegeführt
Biogas flexibel
Biomethan flexibel
Wasserkraft
Onshore-Wind
Offshore-Wind
Photovoltaik
konv. Kraftwerke
Strombedarf
ohne Bahnstrom und Arealnetze
Im Auftrag von
Datenquellen: ENTSO-E, DWD, SODA
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Regional distribution of wind and photovoltaic has little impact
on the total cost of power supply.
Expanding wind offshore in a reasonable speed is important to
keep total cost low
Expansion of transmission grids are required in Germany but
expansion of renewables does not have to wait
A strong focus on battery storage systems combined with
photovoltaic is currently not desirable
1.
2.
3.
4.
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Agora Energiewende investigated effects
of different renewable energy expansion
path in Germany until 2033
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Regional distribution of wind and
photovoltaic has little impact on the total
cost of power supply
Analysis of expansion paths
in Germany until 2033
Ressource driven:
- Wind focused on the north
- 85 GW wind power to
produce 120 TWh
Consumption driven:
- Wind distributed across
all of Germany
- 89 GW wind power to
produce 120 TWh
Results show
two effects on total cost
- Less capacity required and
lower hub-heights of turbines
700 mio EUR lower
investment costs
- Feed-in more balanced in
time and location
300 - 600 mio EUR lower
cost for residual generation
Resulting effect on total
system cost: ~0,5%
1.
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40
50% gridsplanned by TSOs
100% gridsplanned by TSOs
Benefits of Grid Expansion in 2030, Bn EUR
Results of recent analysis of EU
Commission (DG Energy): Economic
benefit of building all grids planned by
TSOs is highly questionable
3.
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• Cost of PV+battery systems would need to be reduced by ~80% in order to make a
power system based on PV+Battery economicaly efficient from a system perspective
• From a individual perspective, PV+Battery systems can be profitable today due to
savings in taxes, grid fees and other levies
4.
A strong focus on battery storage systems
combined with photovoltaic is currently not
desirable
2013 2023 2033
- 80%
Battery storage (2 kW, 6 kWh)
PV-Modul (4 kW Aufdachanlage)
~ 11.000
~ 2.000
Cost reduction required for a typical PV+battery system until 2033, in EUR
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German Energiewende –
Cost of Power Generation Technologies
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Cost of renewables 1:
The old world (2000-2009)
17
Feed-in Tarifs per technology in ct/kWh
Source: BDEW, own calculations
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Prices for PV have reduced dramatically in
recent years
18
Feed-in Tarifs per technology in ct/kWh
-80%
Source: BDEW, own calculations
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Cost of renewables 3:
Today and in the future
19
Feed-in Tarifs per technology in ct/kWh
Values >2018:
Rough Estimates
Source: BDEW, rough illustrative assumptions on future developments
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0
5
10
15
20
25
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Remuneration in ct/kWh
Power Generation in TWh
EEG-Remuneration for new installations in 2015
The key idea of the current reform of the
EEG: to focus further renewable expansion
on the most cost-effective technologies
20
Biomass*
Wind offshore
PV
Average depends on mix
of renewable
technologies
Wind onshore
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Thank you for your attention!
…open discussion
21
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New Wind and Solar Power is not more
expensive than new conventional power plants
22
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New Wind and Solar Today are Competitive
with new Gas- and Coal Power Plants
23
109
72
57
106
76
104 106
0
50
100
150
NewNuclear
(UK, 2023)
Solar(Germany,
2013)
Windonshore
(Germany,2013)
Windoffshore
(UK, 2018)
Gas CCGT(UK, 2018)
Hard Coal(UK, 2018)
CSSCoal/Gas
(UK, 2018)
Feed-in Tariff*,
in EURreal 2013/MWh
109
*Averages over 35 years; UK FiT converted to EUR, German FiT converted from nominal to real values 2013 (2% inflation), assuming a
new wind/PV plant is built in 2033 for FiT of today; ranges represent different quality of wind sites/ different size of solar PV installation
**Source: DECC, Electricity Generation Costs, Oct 2012
-35% -50%
LCOE**,
in EURreal 2013/MWh
A combination of Wind onshore + Solar + Gas would cost ~70 EUR/MWh
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Other European countries have similar, some even better
conditions for Wind and PV power production
24
Quality of Wind Quality of Solar
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What did we learn?
How will the power
system look like? Grid planning
Decision by
Government/
Regulator
Building
Grid
• Don‘t focus on the last peak of renewable production
(would we do that for highways?)
• Production closer to demand requires less grids
• A paradigm change in grid planing is required:
Build grids to reduce total system cost
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26
Coalition treaty introduces a
„corridor“ for renewable expansion
that confirms existing targets
Renewable Expansion Targets
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013 2020 2025 2030 2035
%
Coalition treaty (CDU/CSU/SPD)
B90/Die Grünen
Current law (EEG)
Target 2025:
40-45%
Target 2035:
55-60%
Offshore:
2020: 6,5 GW (10)
2030: 15 GW (25)
Biomass:
Focus on waste
& residues
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Cost for New Wind and Solar Today are
35-50% Lower than Cost of New Nuclear
27
New Nuclear(UK, 2023)
Solar(Germany, 2013)
Wind onshore(Germany, 2013)
-35%
Feed-in Tariff, in EURreal 2013/MWh
109
Conservative comparison:
• Wind and Solar
build in 2013
(current German law)
• Assuming no further cost
reductions
-50%
Averages over 35 years; UK FiT converted to EUR, German FiT converted from nominal to real values 2013 (2% inflation), assuming a
new wind/PV plant is built in 2033 for FiT of today; ranges represent different quality of wind sites/ different size of solar PV installation
72
57
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0
5
10
15
20
Price(ct/kWh)
Power Generation
(TWh)
EEG
1.0
150
Capa-
city
mecha-
nism
Energy-Only-Market for
residual generation
390
EEG
2.0
35% Renewables 600
60
65% Non-renewable
Illustrative
Ensure further renewable
expansion cost efficiently 1
Ensure security of supply
cost efficiently 2
Two key challenges for the Energiewende
in the coming years
Remuneration of power generation in Germany in 2020
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Wind power technology today alows to produce wind in
sites not even considered before
Wind Turbines today 40 times more powerful than 20 years ago
29
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Investments in Renewable Energy (as well
as Nuclear) are impossible when they are
linked to electricity market prices
30
Two possible electricity price worlds for 2015-2045
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Wind and Solar will also dominate the
Future of Europe‘s Energy System
31
RES-Power Generation in Europe*, TWh
*Decarbonisation Scenarios of the European Commission‘s Energy Roadmap 2050: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy2020/roadmap
**incl. small shares of CSP, tidal etc. that are not separately published in EU Energy Roadmap
2005 2050 Scenario:High RES
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
PV
Wind
Other RES
Hydro
2005 2050 Scenarios:Nuclear & CCS
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
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32
The grid in Germany is amongst the most
stable in the world – with 25% renewables
*Ohne außergewöhnliche Ereignisse
Quelle: 5th CEER Report on the Quality of Electric Supply 2011, BNetzA
Ungeplante Unterbrechungen der Stromversorgung in Minuten
im Jahr 2010
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33
Germany continues to export power to it‘s
neighbours
Stromhandel zwischen Deutschland und den Nachbarstaaten seit 2003
-500000%
-400000%
-300000%
-200000%
-100000%
0%
100000%
200000%
300000%
400000%
500000%
GWh
Import
Export
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Quelle: Entso-E
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Private Individuals and Farmers
Own More than 50% of Renewable
Energy in Germany
Paris, 14.05.2013 | Daniel Fürstenwerth 34
40%
11%
14%
11%
9%
7% 7% Private Individuals
Farmers
Project Developers
Investment Fonds/Banks
Others
Businesses
Other Utilities
Big 4 Utilities
Source: www.unendlich-viel-energie.de/de/detailansicht/article/224/energie-in-buergerhand-privatleute-treiben-die-energiewende-voran.html
2
Ownership of Installed Renewable Energy Capacities in Germany in 2010
(total 53 GW)
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Due to the yearly schedule, grid planning
processes in Germany are running in parallel
How will the power
system look like? Grid planning
Decision by
Government/
Regulator
Building
Grid
How will the power
system look like? Grid planning
NEP
2012
NEP
2013
How will the power
system look like? Grid planning
NEP
2014
How will the power
system look like?
NEP
2015
Ilustrative
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What did we learn? - Process
How will the power
system look like? Grid planning
Decision by
Government/
Regulator
Building
Grid
• Intensive Consultations and Political Awareness on Scenarios
• Law granting full access to modeling data to ministries,
limited access to outside experts
• Large efforts to communicate with society on regional/local level
• Massive capacity building took place in
TSOs, Regulator, Scientists, NGO
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The German Case: Grid Planning with high
level of transparency and stakeholder
involvement
Process
phases
Developing
scenario
framework
Consul-
tation on
scenario
Developing grid
development plan
Consulta-
tion and
revision of
1st draft
Consul-
tation
of final
plan
Revi-
sion
2nd
draft/S
EA
Scenario framework Grid development plan Consultation
TSOs
Regulator
TSOs
Regulator
Respon
sible
Public &
DSOs
Experts
TSOs
ACER
Public, DSOs,
regulator
Public
DSOs
Consult
ed
Three different consultation phases for grid development plan
Series of public events to explain grid development plan
Source: RGI
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Ilustrative
Grid map by IAEW,
own illustrative drawings
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Ilustrative
Grid map by IAEW,
own illustrative drawings
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Recent analysis of Prognos challenge
„common knowledge“ of cheap transmission
for PV Power produced in South of Europe
40