Experience with GHG emission projections for energy sector in LATVIA
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Experience with GHG emission projections for energy sector in LATVIA Workshop on emissions projection 6-8 September 2004, UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn Janis Rekis Latvian Investment and Development Agency
description
Experience with GHG emission projections for energy sector in LATVIA. Janis Rekis Latvian Investment and Development Agency. Workshop on emissions projection 6-8 September 2004, UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn. History of MARKAL use for emission projections in energy sector. Started in 1995 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Experience with GHG emission projections for energy sector in LATVIA
Experience with GHG emission projections for energy sector
in LATVIA
Workshop on emissions projection6-8 September 2004, UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn
Janis RekisLatvian Investment and
Development Agency
History of MARKAL use for emission projections in energy sector
• Started in 1995• 2nd National Communication• 3rd National Communication• Projections for SO2, VOC, NOx• and now …
Modelling approach
• Bottom-up rich technology optimization model
• Spread of action between supply and demand
• Emissions taxes and constraints• Estimate system costs• Sensitivity analyses
Overview of model
Useful energydemand
Primary fuelprices
Menu of energytechnologies
productionconversion
transmissionutilization
Emissionconstraints
Optimal least costmix of technologies
Issues (1)
• Reporting– Generic tables (results, assumptions etc.)
• Problems– Emission factors for new fuels– Energy useful demand projections (how to
link with macroeconomic forecast)– Possibility to deal with uncertainty with
stochastic analyzes– Discrepancy between structure of energy
balance and inventory (ex. off-road)
Issues (2)
Notwithstanding to resent development in CC policy field
• National system isn’t yet established
• Lack of coordination between involved institutions
• Lack of financial capacity
GHG emission forecast in energy sector Gg
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
2500019
90
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Actual emissions
3NC
2NC Reference Scenario
2NC Scenario with Measures
Forecast of GDP
6791
3613 46
73
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
mill
ion
US
$(19
94)
at average prices of1994, mill. US$
Slow developmentscenario (2003)
EU(15) average level in2000
EU(15) average level(2001)
Fast convergencescenario (2001)
Convergence scenario(2001)
MARKAL
Stagnation scenario(2001)
Divergence scenario(2001)
CO2 emissions in energy sector, Ggdifferent growth rates for useful energy demand
Annual growth of (1999-2034)Scenario DM1 DM2 DM4 DM6
Useful energy demand 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 2.1%
Electricity consumption 1.4% 2.1% 2.8% 3.8%
