Expectations Bulletin Pack (3)
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Transcript of Expectations Bulletin Pack (3)
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7/28/2019 Expectations Bulletin Pack (3)
1/31
ConsumerexpectationsInflation & unemploymentexpectation chart pack.
June 2013
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7/28/2019 Expectations Bulletin Pack (3)
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Inflation expectations remain well anchored
4
5
6
7
4
5
6
7 % ann% ann
trend median
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
Jun-97 Jun-01 Jun-05 Jun-09 Jun-13
2
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Expectations still well below longer run average
4
5
6
7
4
5
6
7 % ann% ann
CPI
professionals trend
consumers trend
Spike higherpre GST
introduction
A realinflation spike
Carbon priceboost very
small
-1
0
1
2
3
-1
0
1
2
3
Jun-98 Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun-10 Jun-13
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics, Melbourne Institute
3
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Still a less than usual looking for price rises
4
5
6
7
80
90
100
% ann%CPI (rhs)
net balance (lhs)*
average since1995
*% expecting prices to riseminus % expecting prices to fall
-1
0
1
2
3
40
50
60
70
May-98 May-01 May-04 May-07 May-10 May-13
Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics, Melbourne Institute
4
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Labour market concerns surge back
160
180
200
160
180
200 indexindexunemployment expectations
unemployment expectations trend
Sources: Westpac-MI
unemploymentexpected to rise
peak,Feb 09
80
100
120
140
80
100
120
140
Jun-88 Jun-93 Jun-98 Jun-03 Jun-08 Jun-13
unemployment
expected to fall
5
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suggesting unemployment can still rise
160
180
200
200
300
400
indexannual change in unemployment rate smoothed (lhs)
unemployment expectations trend (rhs)
bps
unemploymentrising
80
100
120
140
-200
-100
0
100
Jun-88 Jun-93 Jun-98 Jun-03 Jun-08 Jun-13
Sources: Westpac-MI
unemployment
falling
6
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...& employment to lag population growth...
100
150
200
250-60
-40
-20
bps tty
unemploy. expectations (lhs leading 4mths)
change in employ/pop ratio (rhs)
% long run averageSources: Westpac-MI, ABS
-150
-100
-50
0
500
20
40
Jun-95 Jun-99 Jun-03 Jun-07 Jun-11
7
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...as full-time employment fades...
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0-30
-20
-10
0
% 3mth% invertedSources: Westpac-MI, ABS
*trend represented as deviation from 10 year average
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.010
20
30
40
50
Jun-99 Jun-03 Jun-07 Jun-11
unemploy. exp* (lhs leading2mths)trend full-time employ (rhs)
8
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...holding back the overall labour market.
1.0
1.5-40
-30
-20
-10
% 3mth% deviationSources: Westpac-MI, ABS* represented as deviation from full history average
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
.10
20
30
40
50Jun-99 Jun-03 Jun-07 Jun-11
unemployment expectationstrend* (lhs leading 2mths)
trend total employment (rhs)
9
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Hours worked to continue to languish...
3.0
5.0
-50
-30
-10
% yr% long run averageSources: Westpac-MI, ABS
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
.10
30
50
Jun-95 Jun-99 Jun-03 Jun-07 Jun-11
unemploy. expectations (lhs leading 4mths)
hours worked %yr (rhs)
10
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...as they moderate in the very near term.
0.5
1.0
1.5-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
% 3mth% long run averageSources: Westpac-MI, ABS
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.00
10
20
30
40
50
Jun-95 Jun-99 Jun-03 Jun-07 Jun-11
unemploy. expectations* (lhs leading 1mth)
trend hours worked (rhs)
11
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Same for employed & those not working
120
130
140
150
120
130
140
150 indexindex
working
unemploy/retired/not working
Long run average = 100
60
70
80
90
100
60
70
80
90
100
Jun-00 Jun-03 Jun-06 Jun-09 Jun-12
Sources: Westpac-MI
12
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Now only sales have some optimism
120
130
140
150
120
130
140
150 indexindex
manager/prof
labourer/operator
paraprof/trades
sales/clerical
Unemployment expectations by occupation LR ave = 100
60
70
80
90
100
60
70
80
90
100
Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun-10 Jun-13
Sources: Westpac-MI
13
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Expectations similar by educational level
120
130
140
150
120
130
140
150 indexindex
Primary
Tertiary
Secondary
Trade
Unemployment expectations by occupation LR ave = 100
60
70
80
90
100
60
70
80
90
100
Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun-10 Jun-13
Sources: Westpac-MI
14
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by gender
120
130
140
150
160
120
130
140
150
160 indexindex
Male Female
Unemployment expectations by occupation LR ave = 100
60
70
80
90
100
110
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun-10 Jun-13
Sources: Westpac-MI
15
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if they live with/without children
120
130
140
150
160
120
130
140
150
160 indexindex
Live with children
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and home ownership.
120
130
140
150
160
120
130
140
150
160 indexindex
tenant
mortgagor
owned
Unemployment expect by household type LR ave = 100
60
70
80
90
100
110
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun-10 Jun-13
Sources: Westpac-MI
17
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as things deteriorate in the mining states
120
130
140
150
160
120
130
140
150
160 indexindex
NSW WA
Vic Qld
Unemployment expectations by state LR ave = 100
60
70
80
90
100
110
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun-10 Jun-13
Sources: Westpac-MI
19
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and in the rural areas.
120
130
140
150
120
130
140
150 indexindex
urban
rural
Unemployment expectations by state LR ave = 100
60
70
80
90
100
60
70
80
90
100
Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun-10 Jun-13
Sources: Westpac-MI
20
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Job worries keep the pressure on rates
80
100
1200
100
200
300 Index invert.bps
When unemployment expectations improve, theRBA tightens monetary policy
140
160
180
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun-10 Jun-13
annual change in RBA cash rate (lhs)
forecasts
unemployment expectations trend (rhs) Source: Westpac-MI
When unemploymentexpectation deteriorate, theRBA eases monetary policy
21
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as the pace of decline starts to accelerate.
-48
-32
-16
00
100
200
300 %yrbpsWhen unemployment expectations
improve, the RBA tightens monetary policy
16
32
48
64
80-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun-10 Jun-13
annual change in RBA cash rate (lhs)
forecasts
change in expectations (rhs) Source: Westpac-MI
When unemploymentexpectation deteriorate, theRBA eases monetary policy
22
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NSW full-time stronger than expectations
1.0
2.0-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
% 3mth% invertedSources: Westpac-MI, ABS
-2.0
-1.0
0.00
10
20
30
40
50
Dec-94 Dec-98 Dec-02 Dec-06 Dec-10
unemploy. exp* (lhs)
trend full-time employ (rhs)
*trend represented as deviationfrom 10 year average
25
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NSW hours worked still quite weak
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
% yrunemploy. exp* (lhs leading 2 mths)
trend hours worked (rhs)
% invertedSources: Westpac-MI, ABS
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.00
10
20
30
40
50
Nov-96 Nov-00 Nov-04 Nov-08 Nov-12
*trend represented as deviationfrom 10 year average
26
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Vic expectations now diverging from employ
1.0
2.0-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
% 3mth% invertedSources: Westpac-MI, ABS
*trend represented as deviationfrom 10 year average
-2.0
-1.0
0.00
10
20
30
40
50
Oct-97 Oct-01 Oct-05 Oct-09
unemploy. exp* (lhs leading 2 mths)
trend full-time employ (rhs)
27
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Vic hours weaker than expectations
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
% yr% invertedSources: Westpac-MI, ABS
*trend represented as deviationfrom 10 year average
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.00
10
20
30
40
50
Nov-96 Nov-00 Nov-04 Nov-08 Nov-12
unemploy. exp* (lhs leading 2 mths)
trend hours worked (rhs)
28
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Qld expectations still very weak
2.0
3.0-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
% 3mth% invertedSources: Westpac-MI, ABS
-1.0
0.0
1.00
10
20
30
40
50
Oct-98 Oct-02 Oct-06 Oct-10
unemploy. exp* (lhs leading 2 mths)
trend full-time employ (rhs)*trend represented as deviationfrom 10 year average
29
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Qld expectations still very weak
4.0
6.0
8.0-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
% yrunemploy. exp* (lhs leading 3 mths)
trend hours worked (rhs)
% inverted
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.00
10
20
30
40
50
Dec-94 Dec-98 Dec-02 Dec-06 Dec-10
Sources: Westpac-MI, ABS
*trend represented as deviationfrom 10 year average
30
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WA expectations much weaker than jobs
1.0
2.0
3.0-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
% 3mth% invertedSources: Westpac-MI, ABS
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.010
20
30
40
50
60
Dec-94 Dec-98 Dec-02 Dec-06 Dec-10
unemploy. exp* (lhs leading 2 mths)
trend full-time employ (rhs)*trend represented as deviationfrom 10 year average
31