Existing safety technology – is the driverless vehicle already here?

Matthew Avery – Safety Research Director

Automotive Safety

Primary vs Secondary Safety

Increasing crash probability

Primary Safety Secondary

Safety

Tertiary Safety

Pre-crash Crash Post crash

Systems to prevent

and mitigate

accidents

Protective safety

systems to mitigate

consequences

Rescue systems and

services

Time

Primary safety: Prevention is better than cure

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems

ADAS

• ESC is an established life saver

• Other ADAS systems show potential

• ESC saves lives; an ESC equipped vehicle is 25% less likely to be involved in a serious or fatal crash in the UK

Autonomous Emergency Braking

AEB

• Forward looking sensors (RADAR, LIDAR, Camera)

• System detects an imminent collision

• Some systems issue driver warnings (acoustic, visual, haptic)

• Automatic application of the brakes if driver is unresponsive or distracted

Car-to-Car Rear (CCR) Car-to-Pedestrian (CP)

AEB Real World Effectiveness

Report available at: www.Thatcham.org/AEB

-4%

-9%

-18%

-33%

-18%-16%

-32%

-14%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

USA: Mercedes

with vs without

USA: Volvo with vs without

UK: Volvo XC60 vs

competitors

USA: Volvo XC60 vs

competitors

USA: Volvo S60 vs

competitors

USA: Mercedes

with vs without

USA: Volvo with vswithout

USA: Honda with vs without

FCW City Safety FCW with autobrake

UK AEB KSI Reduction Potential

Combined Incentives = Insurance Reductions + Euro NCAP

Euro NCAP and Insurance AEB Test Scenarios

INTE

R-

UR

BA

NIN

TER

-U

RB

AN

INTE

R-

UR

BA

N

Car-to-Car Rear (CCR) Car-to-Pedestrian CP

CITY (Group Rating)Lead Vehicle Stopped<50km/h

CP1

Unobscured nearside

walking pedestrian

Lead Vehicle Stopped30-80km/h

CP2

Obscured walking

nearside pedestrian

Slower Lead VehicleTarget 20km/hTest 30-80km/h

CP3

Unobscured farside

pedestrian

Lead Vehicle Decelerating50km/h

INT

ER

-

UR

BA

N

INT

ER

-

UR

BA

N

INT

ER

-

UR

BA

N

City AEB Test – Group Rating and EuroNCAP

Stationary Low Speed

Inter-Urban AEB: Euro NCAP

Moving

Inter-Urban AEB: Euro NCAP

Braking

Euro NCAP Rating Strategy

Safety Boxes: 2014 Euro NCAP Assessment Areas

Adult Occupant Protection

Front: Offset Deformable Barrier

Side: Mobile Deformable Barrier

Pole

Whiplash Front Seat

Whiplash Rear Seat

AEB City

Child Occupant Protection

Dynamic Assessment

Child Restraint System Assessment

Vehicle Assessment

Pedestrian Protection

Head Form

Upper Leg Form

Lower Leg Form

AEB VRU – Pedestrian – 2016

AEB VRU – Cyclist - 2018

Safety Assist

Seat Belt Reminder

Speed Assist System

Electronic Stability Control

LDW/LKA

AEB Inter Urban

UK AEB Fitment – and Insurance Incentives

Points % reduction

2 12

3 13

4 14

5 15

6 16

7 17

8 18

9 19

10 20

11 21

12 22

13 23

14 24

UK and German insurers offer AEB Discounts – up to 5 Groups

Damageability

VM’s “Selling” AEB

Euro NCAP Rating Strategy

Rating Examples

Total Score 88% 83% 69% 79% 82%

80% 75% 60% 65% 75%

70% 60% 50% 55% 65%

50% 30% 40% 30% 50%

30% 25% 20% 20% 40%

20% 15% 10% 10% 30%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Total Score 83% 78% 60% 48% 73%

80% 75% 60% 65% 75%

70% 60% 50% 55% 65%

50% 30% 40% 30% 50%

30% 25% 20% 20% 40%

20% 15% 105 10% 30%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Nissan Qashqai1.5dCi Acenta, LHD

Renault Megane1.5dCi 'Life', LHD

The Safety Assist score limits the overall rating

Overall weighted score

Euro NCAP Rating Strategy

2014 Rating Distribution

Citroen Berlingo 56% 74% 63% 48%

Citroen C-Elysee 71% 75% 54% 33%

MG3 69% 71% 59% 38%

Nissan e-NV200 Evalia 75% 80% 60% 38%

Peugeot 301 71% 75% 54% 33%

Peugeot Partner 56% 74% 63% 48%

Renault Megane 83% 78% 60% 48%

Citroen C1 80% 80% 62% 56%

Ford Torneo Connect 84% 84% 74% 56%

Hyundai i10 79% 80% 71% 56%

Peugeot 108 80% 80% 62% 56%

Renault Twingo 78% 81% 68% 56%

Toyota Aygo 80% 80% 62% 56%

Mercedes-Benz C-Class 92% 84% 77% 70%

Mercedes-Benz GLA-Class 96% 88% 67% 70%

Nissan Qashqai 88% 83% 69% 79%

VW Golf Sportsvan 87% 85% 62% 73%

Typically the overall rating is limited by the low score in the Safety Assist box, due to the non-fitment of ADAS. Only 5 Star vehicles have ADAS fitted.

3 Star limiting scores 3 Star limiting scores

4 Star limiting scores

4 Star limiting scores

PedestrianTest Scenarios - 2016P

EDES

TRIA

N

Far side Near side

Adult Adult Child

8km/h 5km/h 5km/h

50% (central) 25% & 75% 50% (central)

VU

T

20-60km/h 20-60km/h 20-60km/h

Pedestrian Testing 2016

Cyclist AEB - 2018

Front CameraFront LIDARFront RadarSide/Front 180° CameraSide RadarRear Camera/Ultrasonic

££££££££££££

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

front side rear sensor cost performance

VM Solutions – Current or Near Future Sensor Fit and VFM

Parking Incidents

• In the UK, 23% of claims related to parking incidents

• 71% of parking incidents occurred during reversing

23%

22%

17%

12%

4%3%2% 18%

Reversing &ParkingCar to car rear

Single vehicle

Junction

Head on

Lane change 75%

16%

9% Reversing

Movingforward

Parking Crashes – 23% of all claims = £1.7 bn

EuroNCAP >2020 Roadmap

end2015

2017

2018

2019

2020

2016

Far side occupant protection for driver and front passenger Updated AEB CCR – Offsets and New Barrier AEB for pedestrians and pedal cyclists in

daylight, darknessLane Keeping Run Off Road Test ProcedureJunction Protection Safety critical HMI guidelines

Mobile test solution to offset front protection

Rear seat occupancy & CRS detectionWhiplash Test RevisionUpdate to Speed Assistance Systems6 and 10 year old child in frontal and side Lane Keep Assist

Assessment

Introduction of new protocols until 2020

ADAS Technologies

• LDW/LKA systems widespread in the market

• Crash reduction unclear

• 20% of KSI relate to single vehicle crashes – mostly on straight, well marked roads

• Sophisticated Lane Guidance Systems now available (Infiniti Q50 – Mercedes E-Class)

• New Research looking at Run-off-Road Tests – Straight and Radius

• Off Road and Across Lane -

Future Research – AES?

New Technology – Autonomous Emergency Steering (AES?)

Run-off Road systems

• Sophisticated lane guidance systems already in production• Mercedes E class, Infiniti Q50, Subaru Levorg…• Interpret and react to solid and dashed markings, overtaking and oncoming traffic etc.

• 2015 Volvo XC90 has advanced Run-Off-Road system

Autonomous Testing

AEB and AES – Building Blocks for the “partial” Autonomous Car - 2018

AEB AES

The Autonomous Car

Motivation for automated driving functions

Safety

Fuel economy

Traffic efficiency

Improved mobility

Comfort

City planning

Eliminate human error

Optimised driving style for traffic and road

Minimise interruptions and optimise road space usage

Enable and maintain driving for individuals

Minimise driving stress. Travel time used for work or social purposes.

Separate parking and work locations. Efficient use of space.

+ more!

The Autonomous Car

Levels of Autonomy and required technologies

• AEB

• Adaptive

Cruise control

• Parking and

Lane Keep

Assistance

• Cruise control

• ABS

• ESC

• Adaptive Cruise

Control with

lane keeping

• Traffic Jam

Assistance

• Road following

• Junction

decisioning

• Hazard detection

and evasive

decisioning

• V2V, V2I

1. Driver

Control

2. Assisted

Driving

3. Partial

Autonomy

4. High

Autonomy5. Full Autonomy

• Combination of all functions + Artificial intelligence and multiple

redundancies – No driver monitoring

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

New Car Sales %: Assisted Driving

Fleet %: Assisted Driving

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

New Car Sales %: Partial Autonomy

Fleet %: Partial Autonomy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Fleet %: High Autonomy

New Car Sales %: High Autonomy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Fleet %: High Autonomy

New Car Sales %: High Autonomy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

2018: Volvo and Mercedes road following

autonomy

Google autonomous car

Adapted from Autonomous Road Vehicles – POSTnote 443, September 2013, Dr. Chandrika Nath, Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, Parliamentary Copyright 2013

Future Testing

New Technologies need new evaluation procedures

Partial Autonomous Driving – Demonstrations Today

Auto Parking - BMW

Parking Auto Brake- Infiniti

AEB – City Safety - Volvo

Queue Assist - Mercedes

Car park AEB & auto-park demonstrations

City Safety

Auto-parking

Reverse auto-brake

Autonomous drive pick-up & drop-off

Viewing area

Viewing area

Partial Autonomous (low speed) following demo (~20km/h)

Assembly & startPick up/drop off

outside Academy rear car park by other demos

Drive to start point

Negotiate roundabout

End at roundabout

Return & stop

Semi-autonomous following road train travels west along Gables Way

Existing safety technology – is the driverless vehicle already here?

Matthew Avery – Safety Research Director