© Euroconsult 2020 – All rights reserved

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

© Euroconsult 2020 – All rights reserved

In its research, “Satellite Connectivity and Video Market,” Euroconsult revised its forecast toaccount for the impact of COVID-19. The pandemic has deeply impacted maritime and in-flight connectivity demand, and to a lesser extent other segments such as enterprisenetworks. It remains to be seen how long those markets will take to recover.

Long-term market drivers for satellite connectivity remain strong and before the pandemicthe market was starting to show signs of recovery from the major market price reset. However,due to COVID-19’s impact on bandwidth consumption by cruise ships, commercial airlines,and the energy sector, return to growth previously forecast to begin in 2020 is now unlikelyuntil 2022. According to Euroconsult’s forecast, the satellite and connectivity market is nowexpected to surpass its historic revenue peak by 2024 and will become an $18.7 billion marketby 2029.

Not all market segments have been negatively impacted by COVID-19. Consumerbroadband saw growth in North America following the pandemic, with existing subscribersshifting to higher value plans and overall growth in subscriber base. Nonetheless, temporarysupply chain issues have caused delays in new project rollouts in most market segments.Despite the short-term headwinds caused by the pandemic, it is expected that underlyingmarket drivers will prevail, enabling long-term growth.

While market erosion since 2014 was mostly due to oversupply in some regions and theimpact of high throughput satellites (HTS), the video market has also experienced markedchanges. Whereas video distribution was previously the main driver of satellite revenue, by2022 wholesale revenue for data applications is projected to surpass video applications. By2029, data market revenues are expected to represent nearly 80 percent of the satelliteconnectivity market value.

COVID-19 IMPACT ON SATELLITE CONNECTIVITY AND VIDEO MARKET DELAYS RETURN TO GROWTH

© Euroconsult 2020 – All rights reserved

ABOUT SATELLITE CONNECTIVITY AND VIDEO MARKETTHE ESSENTIAL TOOL FOR BUSINESS PLANNING AND INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN THE SATELLITE INDUSTRY

An essential tool for operators, service providers, suppliers, manufacturers, launchers, and investors, the “SatelliteConnectivity and Video Market” research – now in its 27th edition – provides an in-depth analysis of the conditionsdriving demand by market segment. With both a qualitative and quantitative perspective, it breaks down demandby region, application, and system type. The report includes historic numbers for capacity supply, capacity leased,capacity revenue, and the cost of capacity per unit, as well as a ten-year projection of these numbers in the future.

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

Global satellite capacity supply is headed towards a dramatic increase

ICT transformation, cloud applications & government programs, should play a big role in the development of the market, notably with PPPs and universal access policies.

All regions should experience growth over the next decade, except for highly mature Northeast Asian market

All the voice & data verticals are expected to grow in the next ten years (demand elasticity in price-sensitive verticals large volume commitments on the next-generation satellites)

STRATEGIC ISSUES:

Market drivers Structural changes Consolidated forecasts of the FSS market

FORECAST:

System type (regular, GEO HTS, NGSO HTS) Service application Region:

APPLICATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST MARKET SEGMENTS:

Video distribution & contribution Cellular Backhaul & Trunking Enterprise networks Mobility MILSATCOM Consumer broadband

A MUST READ FOR:

Satellite operators Manufacturers Banks & investors Satellite service providers Space agencies

EXTENSIVE FIGURES & ANALYSIS FOR THE COMING DECADEAll Euroconsult research programs have, at their core, dataderived from over 30 years of tracking all levels of thesatellite/space value chain. To this we add dozens of dedicatedindustry interviews each year, along with the continualrefinement of our data models, and the collection andinterpretation of company press releases and financial filings. Ourconsultants have decades of experience interpreting andanalyzing our proprietary databases in light of the broader valuechain.

The research from Euroconsult contains thousands of data pointsand expert interpretation of what this means for specific verticalsand sectors of the satellite value chain, including forecasts basedon years of data and highly refined models.

North America Latin America Western Europe Central Eastern Europe Russia/CIS Middle East & North Africa

Sub Saharan Africa South Asia North East Asia China area South East Asia Oceania

© Euroconsult 2020 – All rights reserved

TABLE OF CONTENTS01/ STRATEGIC ISSUES AND FORECASTS• SATCOM market value forecast: comparison

2019 – 2020 editions• FSS industry: key events of the past year• Structural drivers of technology push vs.

market pull• Satellite capacity market: technology push• Satellite capacity market: market pull• Satellite capacity market – new business

models• Satellite capacity market – trends towards

vertical integration• Satellite capacity market: the impact• Satellite capacity market – impact of COVID-

19• Satellite capacity market – video vs. voice &

data forecast• FSS industry: changes in market structure• FSS industry: growing competition & impact on

industry• Overview of the current dynamics for satellite

capacity demand• Satellite capacity demand dashboard 2019• Satellite capacity demand dashboard 2029• Capacity revenue growth patterns• Satellite capacity market - long-term growth

matrix• Key conditions for revenue growth• Benchmark of past and present forecast and

changes in methodology• Synthesis of demand trends by application

segment• Trends for supply and fill rates – overview• World map of satellite capacity supply (2019)• Trends for supply and fill rates – overview• Trends for supply and fill rates – regular

capacity• Trends for supply and fill rates – HTS capacity• Trends in capacity lease rates – overview• Cost base capacity• Trends in capacity lease rates – regular

capacity• Trends in capacity lease rates – GEO HTS

capacity• Trends in capacity lease rates – NGSO HTS

capacity• Forecasts of the FSS capacity market by 2029• Forecasts of the FSS market by frequency

band• Forecasts of the FSS capacity market value by

region by 2029

2.1/ VIDEO DISTRIBUTION AND CONTRIBUTION SERVICES• Map of TV channels by region (2019)• Definitions and trends in capacity demand for

the distribution of TV Channels • Channels distributed over satellite trends• Satellite TV channels: focus on compression

formats• Satellite TV channels: trends by format• Satellite TV channels: UHD channel trends• PAY-DTH platforms: market trends• PAY-DTH platforms: trends for TV channels

distributed• Other distribution services• Video distribution: terrestrial networks

competition• OTT services: positioning of satellite market

players• Forecasts: channels distributed by satellite

Forecasts: channels by format• Forecasts: channels by type of compression• Forecasts: satellite capacity market for video

distribution • Map of contribution feeds and capacity usage

by region (2019)• Summary of video contribution market• Video contribution: market drivers & inhibitors• Video contribution: regular capacity vs. HTS

capacity• Video contribution: terrestrial networks

competition

© Euroconsult 2020 – All rights reserved

TABLE OF CONTENTS2.2/ CONSUMER-GRADE BROADBAND ACCESS• Historical subscriber trends• World map of broadband access over satellite

(2019)• Satellite service offerings • Broadband affordability• Distribution models• FCC rural digital opportunity fund• Regional dynamics: North America• Regional dynamics: Latin America• Regional dynamics: Europe• Regional dynamics: Russia and Central Asia• Regional dynamics: Middle East and Africa• Regional dynamics: Asia Pacific• Subscriber and capacity forecasts (2015-2029)

2.3/ ENTERPRISE NETWORKS• Market segmentation and dynamics• Rural connectivity – segment overview• Rural connectivity –community WIFI hotspots• Civil government – segment overview• Corporate networks – segment overview• Energy and resources – segment overview• Satellite capacity infrastructure – enterprise

market fit• Equipment manufacturers landscape• Consolidated forecasts – terminals• Consolidated forecasts – capacity demand

2.4/ MILITARY SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS • Use of satellite infrastructure by military forces• Threats are boosting demand• U.S. Military forces – key regional deployments

impacting satcom demand• The U.S. DOD – pricing trends for commercial

capacity• The U.S. DOD – budget trends• NATO and EUROPE – continuous but limited

commercial satcom requirements• Rest of the world – limited commercial demand

but new government programs• Importance of demand from oceans• The role of air surveillance• Cybersecurity – room for improvement• Capacity supply – strong competition among

commercial satellite operators

• Capacity supply – increased competition from proprietary systems

• Assumptions – key change drivers for military users

• Assumptions – major trends for MILSATCOM –new conops and key regions

• Major trends for MILSATCOM – data rates by force type

• Forecast for commercial MILSATCOM demand

2.5/ THE MOBILITY MARKET • Background and introduction• COVID-19 impact assessment• Market overview• Satellite technology and its ecosystem• In-flight connectivity overview• In-flight connectivity drivers• Maritime connectivity overview• Maritime connectivity drivers• Consolidated capacity forecast

2.6/ CELLULAR BACKHAUL & TRUNKING• Definitions for cellular backhaul and trucking• Case studies• The addressable market for cellular backhaul • Current adoption of satellite backhaul• Satellite economics & positioning• Dynamics for trunking• Focus on the opportunities and challenges

associated with the 5G standard• Satellite use cases for 5G• Selected drivers for cellular backhaul• Cellular backhaul sites forecasts• Capacity forecasts

© Euroconsult 2020 – All rights reserved

TABLE OF CONTENTS3.1/ NORTH AMERICA• Selected country events (2019 & 2020) • Capacity forecast by application• Capacity supply and fill rate forecast• Capacity revenue and ARPU forecast• Positioning and capacity market shares of

satellite operators

3.2/ LATIN AMERICA• Selected country events (2019 & 2020) • Capacity forecast by application• Capacity supply and fill rate forecast• Capacity revenue and ARPU forecast• Positioning and capacity market shares of

satellite operators

3.3/ WESTERN EUROPE • Selected country events (2019 & 2020) • Capacity forecast by application• Capacity supply and fill rate forecast• Capacity revenue and ARPU forecast• Positioning and capacity market shares of

satellite operators

3.4/ CENTRAL EUROPE • Selected country events (2019 & 2020) • Capacity forecast by application• Capacity supply and fill rate forecast• Capacity revenue and ARPU forecast• Positioning and capacity market shares of

satellite operators

3.5/ RUSSIA & CENTRAL ASIA • Selected country events (2019 & 2020) • Capacity forecast by application• Capacity supply and fill rate forecast• Capacity revenue and ARPU forecast• Positioning and capacity market shares of

satellite operators

3.7/ SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA • Selected country events (2019 & 2020) • Capacity forecast by application• Capacity supply and fill rate forecast• Capacity revenue and ARPU forecast• Positioning and capacity market shares of

satellite operators

3.6/ MENA • Selected country events (2019 & 2020) • Capacity forecast by application• Capacity supply and fill rate forecast• Capacity revenue and ARPU forecast• Positioning and capacity market shares of

satellite operators

3.8/ SOUTH ASIA • Selected country events (2019 & 2020) • Capacity forecast by application• Capacity supply and fill rate forecast• Capacity revenue and ARPU forecast• Positioning and capacity market shares of

satellite operators

3.9/ NORTH EAST ASIA • Selected country events (2019 & 2020) • Capacity forecast by application• Capacity supply and fill rate forecast• Capacity revenue and ARPU forecast• Positioning and capacity market shares of

satellite operators

3.10/ CHINA AREA • Selected country events (2019 & 2020) • Capacity forecast by application• Capacity supply and fill rate forecast• Capacity revenue and ARPU forecast• Positioning and capacity market shares of

satellite operators

© Euroconsult 2020 – All rights reserved

TABLE OF CONTENTS - CONTINUED

Interactive infographics Intuitive use Clear data visualization Quick data search & filtering Customized export Quarterly rolling updates

Feed your business intelligence tool & turn information into business insight:

EUROCONSULT LAUNCHESITS DIGITAL PLATFORM

3.11/ SOUTHEAST ASIA • Selected country events (2019 & 2020) • Capacity forecast by application• Capacity supply and fill rate forecast• Capacity revenue and ARPU forecast• Positioning and capacity market shares of

satellite operators

3.12/ OCEANIA PACIFIC • Selected country events (2019 & 2020) • Capacity forecast by application• Capacity supply and fill rate forecast• Capacity revenue and ARPU forecast• Positioning and capacity market shares of

satellite operators

3.13/ OCEANS • Overview of mobility market in Oceanic regions• Capacity forecast by application• Capacity supply and fill rate• Capacity revenue and ARPU forecast• Positioning and capacity market shares of

satellite operators

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