Examples from the Western Indian Ocean
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Transcript of Examples from the Western Indian Ocean
Examples from the western Indian Ocean
ASCLME/SWIOFP/FAO Nansen projects
Warwick Sauer and Kevern Cochrane
ManagemenManagement Processest Processesi) Developing i) Developing
a a management management
planplan
4.1.2 Scoping[Fishery & area,
Stakeholders,Broad issues]
4.1.3 Background information & analysis
4.1.5 Formulating rules
Implementation &enforcement
4.1.4 Setting objectives[Broad objectives,
Operational objectives,Indicators & performance
measures]
4.1.6 Monitoring
4.1.6 Long-term review
4.1.6 Short-term review
Con
sulta
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with
stak
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C
Response option 1Response option 2
Response Option 1Response Option 2
Response Option 1Response Option 2Response Option 3
Response Option 1Response Option 2Response Option 3
Kenya
Tanzania
MozambiqueZim
Zambia
Namibia
Malawi
Lesotho
UgandaOften little data available
SADCNEPAD
Seychelles
CapeVerde
Madagascar
Swaziland
Angola
Eritrea
Mauritius
In Africa a close link with the resources and socio-economic vulnerability
Assessment of the octopus resource in Rodriques
Octopus catch
• Dire situation for the local fishers
Ship board sampling
2008-2012
Over 10000 tons of toxic waste dumped off Over 10000 tons of toxic waste dumped off Spmalia in the 1990’s/early 2000 by Spmalia in the 1990’s/early 2000 by
european countrieseuropean countries
The need to anchor biological research to an economic and
social framework
There are many challenges...
Compiling Fisheries management plans for Tanzania, Kenya and Seychelles,
•1 month course held at Rhodes for representatives from the ASCLME/SWIOFP countries•Each country to choose a fishery and compile a management plan by December 2012
BASELINE STUDY:•Preamble•Objectives•Policy and legal framework within which the fishery is operating•Institutional and administrative frameworks•Overview of the fishery and resources exploited•Available scientific and traditional knowledge on the resources•Assessment of the importance of the fishery in the national economy•Management measures currently being used in the fishery•Effectiveness of the current management•Compliance and Enforcement:•The way forward•References
Risk Analysis involves consideration of :• the sources of risk,• their consequences and • the likelihood that they may occur.
Moreover, it allows for the prioritization of issues or hazards with justification and the subsequent prioritization of management responses.
It requires stakeholders to deliberate and come up with an agreed position and provides an agreed roadmap for the way forward. In essence it is a way of operationalizing policy.
Risk Analysis
• Identification of Issues The methodology utilizes generic component trees to help participants to tease out the main issues or concerns that the fishery faces (Figure 1).
Consequence Level
Likelihood
Minor Moderate Major Extreme
1 2 3 4
Remote 1 1 2 3 4
Unlikely 2 2 4 6 8
Possible 3 3 6 9 12
Likely 4 4 8 12 16
This information is then used to compile a fisheries management plan…
Using the broad information required by the management plan to set management measures:
Perhaps think simple models - Gather fishery biological, economic, social and political information
to gauge trends in sustainability – Set Target and limit indicators
e.g. simple biological indicators from an Angolan study..
Proposed Example
Robot
≥ 336660< 336660≤ 217200
≤ 0.51> 0.51≥ 0.65
≥ 738< 738≤ 664
≥ 0.08< 0.08≤ 0.05
Cut off Values
≥ 60% baseline< 60% baseline≤ 40% baseline
Sardinella Biomass (baseline = 543 000mt)
≤ baseline M + 0.1> baseline M + 0.1> RSA Z + 0.10
Mean Z (baseline M = 0.38, F = 0.03, Z = 0.41)
≥ 10% baseline< 10% baseline≤ 20% baseline
Mean size of mature fish (baseline 820mm FL)
≥ 60% baseline< 60% baseline≤ 40% baseline
Mean cpue(baseline 0.13 fish.angler-
1hour)
EstimatorIndicator (baseline reference point)
Proposed Example
Robot
≥ 336660< 336660≤ 217200
≤ 0.51> 0.51≥ 0.65
≥ 738< 738≤ 664
≥ 0.08< 0.08≤ 0.05
Cut off Values
≥ 60% baseline< 60% baseline≤ 40% baseline
Sardinella Biomass (baseline = 543 000mt)
≤ baseline M + 0.1> baseline M + 0.1> RSA Z + 0.10
Mean Z (baseline M = 0.38, F = 0.03, Z = 0.41)
≥ 10% baseline< 10% baseline≤ 20% baseline
Mean size of mature fish (baseline 820mm FL)
≥ 60% baseline< 60% baseline≤ 40% baseline
Mean cpue(baseline 0.13 fish.angler-
1hour)
EstimatorIndicator (baseline reference point)
rr
gg
oo
gg0.15 =
105000=
goorrggoorr
oorrggoorr
gg
750 =
0.48 =
Traffic light system
No restrictions
Fishery closure
Eg. Closed areas (size and locationto be
determined)
Eg. Closed season(Aug–Oct)
First tier
Second tier
Third tier
Management framework
Indi
cato
rs
BUT HOW DO WE MAKE MANAGERS ACT ON THIS ADVICE? THE FAO CODE OF CONDUCT SUGGESTS
WE USE THE PRECAUTIONARY APPROACH FOR MANAGING MARINE SPECIES WITH LITTLE OR
UNCERTAIN DATAPrecautionary approach - If in doubt, adopt a cautious position based on a ‘worst-case’ scenarioProblem: Managers are uncomfortable at basing their management plans/strategies on what is often seen as ‘supposition’ or limited observation with limited supportive scientific evidence
Policy-Makers do not feel fully justified in making policy decisions which may threaten or impact on other social or economic priorities unless they have reliable ‘justification’ (clear advice from scientists) to support their decisions
Scientists are therefore understandable nervous about ‘sticking their necks out’ and provide advice/guidance based on anything less than very high confidence limits (95% +)
No confidence limitsManagers / policy makers reluctant to base decisions
on ‘supposition’
Provides an indication of trendsEnables faster action
Allows adaptive managementPrioritises issues for further study
Indicators and modelling used as tools
Scientific research
Precautionary approach Weight-of Evidence approach forAdaptation measures?
Few, detailed studies Large body of work
Advise and Guide Policy and Management Decisions
95% confidence requiredVery reliable but data demandingOften based on long term studies
(too long to wait)
Traditional approach
Limited Peer Review(1-3 Specialists?)
Extensive Peer Review(multi-sectoral)
Limited or No Peer Review
Too slow for effective Management decisions
Too unreliable for effective Management decisions
Fast-Track decision-making supported by expert opinion
WE REQUIRTE AN ALTERNATE APPROACH, PARICULALRY FOR DEVLOPING COUNTRIES WITH
LIMITED CAPACITY…
BUILDING AN ECOSYSTEM APPROACH TO MANAGING AFRICAN MARINE RESOURCES
ResearchTraditional Publication >95%CI
Submit Trends Paper“Trends in Ecosystem Variability & Adaptive Management”
<95%CI
IW Review Board; SET UP BY IW LEARN?
Review Panel Includes:Biological, Physico-Chemical, Modelling, Socio-
economics & Governance experts
Peer Review RosterMaintained by
Includes specialist reviewers in:Marine BiologyPhysical OceanographyChemical OceanographyPollution
ModellingRemote SensingSocio-EconomicsGovernance
Trend Assessment & Allocation
HP P L UL HUL
Reject?Recommend as Priority Trend
Ref
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ore
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National Agency
Regional management groups
Funding/Support