Examining Lake Tahoe User Preferences using Conjoint AnalysisEdward Rutledge, Kimberly Rollins, and Laine Christman

University of Nevada, Reno 1664 North Virginia Street Reno, NV 89557

Methods

Introduction Results

Discussion

References

Lake Tahoe has one of the most unique and delicate water ecosystems in the world. People from all stretches of the world are attracted to Lake Tahoe for its clear blue water and the outstanding recreational opportunities available. Due to the increasing number of visitors and residents, which has led to increased development around Lake Tahoe, much of the forest has been suppressed from natural forest fires and there has been an increased nutrient loading in the water of Lake Tahoe. Regulatory agencies such as, the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) and United States Department of Agriculture Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit (LTBMU) monitor and strive to develop strategies that could better improve the lake’s water quality and forest health. However, the problem that has reoccurred is people’s unwillingness to come into compliance with rules and regulations set forth by the regulatory agencies. My research aims to develop a strategy to discover lake users preferences of different attributes concerning the Lake’s water and the Lake’s surrounding forests.

To discover lake users preferences I developed a stated preference model namely conjoint analysis. Donald F. Dennis describes conjoint analysis as a respondent’s choice between alternative scenarios that display varying levels of attributes. Conjoint analysis has been used for a number of years for marketing research to evaluate consumer behavior and observe consumers preferences to different attributes of products (Alriksson & Öberg 2008). In recent years the applicability of conjoint analysis in environmental management issues has become popular (Alriksson & Öberg 2008). Therefore, I developed a conjoint study that’s aim is to discover lake users preferences concerning lake water amenities and forest amenities. I used a decompositonal method of conjoint analysis by developing a full-factorial design of the different attributes and the various levels associated with the attributes (Tables 1&2). From this full factorial design, which is all attributes and attribute levels considered, four different scenarios were presented to a respondent. Each scenario included a hypothetical combination of attributes with varying levels. Included with each scenario was a visual photographic depiction that represented the given levels of each attribute in the scenario. The respondent then would rate their preference of the scenario by giving it a score between 1-10, with 1 being no preference and 10 being high preference. Examples of scenarios are to the right.

Due to time restrictions a survey was not administered to lake users. However, the analysis of the data is as follows. We would run a multinomial logit (MNL) on the data to analyze lake users’ preferences of varying levels of water and forest amenities. Because increase of total expenditures is included as a variable, we can estimate preferences and trade-offs between levels of amenities in terms of a dollar value.

The results and analysis from a conjoint experiment on lake users at Lake Tahoe would help project managers efficiently allocate incentives to lake users to maximize the effectiveness of their projects. If you were able to discover that a certain attribute or attributes are important to lake users you could institute programs and projects so as to appeal to lake users. This could help project managers provide incentives to lake users whilst implementing projects that would be of a benefit to the lake’s water quality and forest health.

Alriksson S, Öberg T (2008): Conjoint Analysis for Environmental Evaluation – A review of methods and applications. Env Sci Pollut Res 15 (3) 244–257.

Dennis D.F. Analyzing Public Inputs to Multiple Objective Decisions on National Forests Using Conjoint Analysis. Forest Science, Volume 44, Number 3, 1 August 1998 , pp. 421-429(9).

Acknowledgements

Table1: Forest Attributes

Table 2: Water Attributes

Alternative 1

• View greater than 200ft. Open stands of trees that are dbh* >16''. Easy to navigate through.

• Campsites secluded users less than 10 people a day. Permit required with a fee and quota limit.

• Hiking only. No mechanized vehicles, bikes, horses, dogs. Restricted access.

• Observe lots of animals in their natural habitat and native species. Rich and diverse ecosystem.

• Low fire risk. Ignition naturally or human induced will result in a understory fire with no crown fire**.

• 25-30% increase in total expenditures.

Alternative 2

• View occluded at 50ft, with lots of dead wood and dense tree stands of dbh* of <16''. Difficult to navigate through.

• Campsites spread out. Users greater than 20-30 people a day. Unlimited access with permit required (no fee).

• Limited access which includes bikes, horses, dogs, hikers.

• Observe few animals, with few native plant species. not a rich and diverse ecosystem.

• High fire risk. Ignition naturally or human induced will result in a crown fire**.

• 0% increase in total expenditures.

Alternative 3• View occluded at 150ft, with scattered dead wood and tree

stands of dbh* <16'' and >16''.• Campsites next to one another. Users greater than 40-50

people a day. No permits open access.• Mechanized vehicles, bikes, horses, dogs, and people having

unlimited access.• Observe animals, with mixed native and invasive species. • Medium fire risk. Ignition naturally or human induced will

result in a 50/50 chance of a crown fire**.• 10% increase in total expenditures .

Alternative 6

• Not clear with algae blooms prevalent. Dark green color and strong unpleasant odor.

• Fewer plants and animals with invasive species abundant.

• All recreational opportunities allowed.

• 0% increase in total expenditures.

National Science Foundation, Economics Department University of Nevada, Reno, Kimberly Rollins & Laine Christman, Art/Photography Department Peter Goin & Scott Hinton

**A crown fire is a fire that engulfs a tree stand all the way up to the canopy. This usually kills the tree and destroys the ecosystem around it.

* dbh is the measurement of the diameter of a tree at breast height. Breast height is defined as 4.5ft. from the forest floor.