Examining Coexistence between Splachnaceae Mosses with Individual-Based Modelling
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Transcript of Examining Coexistence between Splachnaceae Mosses with Individual-Based Modelling
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Studying Coexistence Between MossesWith Individual Based Modelling
Presented by Chris HammillFor The ESA Annual Meeting 2014
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Road Map
● Where I Work● My Study Organisms● About the Model
- Space- Agents- Interactions
● Analysis● Results● Take Home Messages
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Splachnaceae
➢ Globally Distributed
➢ 50% are Coproentomophilous
➢ Coprophily:
Habitat specialists for dung or carrion
➢ Entomophily (Myophily):
A specialized dispersal strategy using flies as spore
dispersal vectors
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Meet the Mosses
Splachnum pensylvanicumSplachnum ampullaceum
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Splachnum MossesIn Newfoundland Peatlands
➢ Two Species:Splachnum ampullaceum and S. pensylvanicum
➢ Found on moose dung
➢ Grow in pure and mixed populations
➢ Share many fly vectors
➢ Differ in attraction cues
➢ Seem to inhabit the same niche
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➢ Two Species:Splachnum ampullaceum and S. pensylvanicum
➢ Found on moose dung
➢ Grow in pure and mixed populations
➢ Share many fly vectors
➢ Differ in attraction cues
➢ Seem to inhabit the same niche
Splachnum MossesIn Newfoundland Peatlands
So: How do they coexist?
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The Model
● Spatial Considerations
● Individuals
● Interactions
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Space and Substrate
● Circular Peatland
● New substrate deposited on random days
● New substrate deposited at random locations
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Arena
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The Model
● Spatial Considerations
● Individuals
● Interactions
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My Model
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My ModelMature Moss
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My ModelMature Moss
Fresh Dung
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My ModelMature Moss
Fresh Dung
Immature Moss
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My Model
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My Model
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My Model
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My Model
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My Model
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My Model
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The Model
● Spatial Considerations
● Individuals
● Interactions
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Competition
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Competition
➢ Each new year, former dung piles become immature moss
populations
➢ Starting conditions for competition are determined by spore
allotment from dispersal
➢ Moss protonemata compete for space according to
Discrete Lotka-Volterra dynamics
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Dispersal
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Spore Transfer
Governing Factors
Distance Yield and composition of mature moss Attractiveness of the dung Phenology
(1)
(2)
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D
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∑D
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• Transfer is proportional to moss attractiveness
• Transfer only effective when dung is more attractive than moss
• Transfer is proportional to the attractiveness difference between moss and dung
Influence of Attractiveness
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Model Phenologies
Uniform and harmonic functions used to describe percent areal coverage producing sporophyes
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Model Construction
● Model Written in Java
● Simulations run for 1000 year
● Year end peatland snap-shots
● 3 – 30 Mb per simulation
● Post processing and summarization done in R
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Big Question
Which parameters are most important in permitting coexistence?
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Varied Parameters
● Dung deposition rate (Substrate; 10x)
● Geometric growth rate (Competition; 10x)
● Attractiveness (Magnitude Dispersal; 10x)
● Phenology (Timing Dispersal; 5x)
5000 Total Combinations
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Analysis
● Ran simulations at predetermined parameter combinations
● Summarized each simulation● Determined the average ratio of
The two species● Create a Random Forest of Regression Trees.● Examine Variable Importance Measures
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Random Forest Results
Parameter Importance
Phenology 0.1626
Growth Rate 0.0927
Dung Deposition 0.0818
Attractiveness 0.0737
*R2 = .947
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Question Two
What Role Does Dispersal Play in Coexistence?
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Question Two
What Role Does Dispersal Play in Coexistence?
● What Role Does Attraction Play● What Role Does Phenology Play
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Influence of AttractivenessTim
e C
oexist e
d (y
ears)
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Influence of AttractivenessTim
e C
oexist e
d (y
ears)
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Influence of AttractivenessContinued
Time C
oexist e
d (y
ears)
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Influence of Phenology
Two competitors with identical phenology
Time C
oexist e
d (y
ears)
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Influence of Phenology Continued
Two competitors with opposite phenologies
Time C
oexist e
d (y
ears)
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Take Home Messages
● Staggered phenologies are sufficient to offset huge competitive differences
● Achieving near optimal attractiveness is important for reducing odds of extinction
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Acknowledgements
Drs. Paul Marino, Suzanne Dufour, Amy Hurford, Shawn Leroux, Lourdes Pena-Castillo, and Tom Chapman
Andrew Chaulk, Greg Dickson, Jenna Paul, Olga Trela
And ESA for giving me this opportunity to share my work
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Contact
Chris Hammill
Paul Marino
Slides: datamancy.blogspot.ca
Any Questions?