EW Gateway Connected 2045

Connected2045Long-Range Transportation Plan for the St. Louis Region

Preliminary Draft March 17, 2015

The East-West Gateway Council of Governments (EWG) hereby

gives public notice that it is the policy of the agency to assure

full compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the

Civil Rights Restoration Act of 1987, Executive Order 12898 on

Environmental Justice, and related statutes and regulations in all

programs and activities. Title VI requires that no person in the

United States of America shall, on the grounds of race, color, sex,

or national origin, be excluded from the participation in, be denied

the benefits of, or be otherwise subjected to discrimination under

any program or activity for which EWG receives federal financial

assistance. Any person who believes they have been aggrieved

by an unlawful discriminatory practice under Title VI has a right

to file a formal complaint with EWG. Any such complaint must

be in writing and filed with EWG’s Title VI Coordinator within

one hundred eighty (180) days following the date of the alleged

discriminatory occurrence. For more information, or to obtain a

Title VI Discrimination Complaint Form, please see our web site at

http://www.ewgateway.org/TitleVI or call (314) 421-4220 or

(618) 274-2750.

This publication was supported, in part, by federal funds provided

under an award from the U.S. Department of Transportation

through the Missouri Department of Transportation and the

Illinois Department of Transportation. The opinions, findings,

and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the

authors and not necessarily those of the Missouri Highways

and Transportation Commission, the Illinois Department of

Transportation, the Federal Highway Administration, or the Federal

Transit Administration.

State of the System Report

Regional Context

Performance Management Framework

Transportation Investment Plan

Air Quality Conformity

Appendix

Contents1 9 35 47

What is Connected2045?

East-West Gateway Council of Governments (EWG) is the St. Louis region’s federally designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO). In accordance with federal law, EWG develops a long-range Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) every four years.

Connected2045 is the latest RTP for the St. Louis Region. The Plan includes:

• Discussion of public engagement activities related to the Plan development process• Principles and strategies to guide transportation system evaluation and decision making over the

course of the planning period. • An investment plan for major road, bridge and transit projects using federal transportation funds. This

plan consists of Missouri and Illinois departments of transportation and Metro projects that are priority projects (affordable within the region’s anticipated resources for the next 30 years) and illustrative projects (projects the region would like to pursue, if funds become available).

• Documentation of Air Quality Conformity

More information on Connected2045 can be found at www.ewgateway.org/trans/longrgplan/longrgplan.htm

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Chapter 1: Regional Context

2 | Long-Range Transportation Plan for the St. Louis Region

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Connected2045 is the long-range transportation plan for the St. Louis region. Based on input from regional citizens, stakeholders, and guidance from elected officials,itguidestransportationdecision-makinginthe region over the next 30 years.

East-West Gateway Council of Governments (EWG) is the St. Louis region’s federally designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO), and, as required by federal law, EWG develops the long-range transportation plan (RTP) every four years. Connected2045 (the Plan) establishes a project and policy-based framework that will be implemented through a variety of short-range transportation plans and programs. While the project list included in Connected2045focusesonregionally-significantroadway and bridge projects, the policies established by the Plan will guide EWG as it prioritizes funding for all modes of transportation—including public transportation, freight, bicycle, pedestrian and paratransit.

The EWG Board of Directors oversees the development of short- and long-range transportation plans for the region and selects the federally-funded capital projects and operation initiatives that will best carry out the framework created by Connected2045. Project selection is conducted through the

Transportation Improvement Program, an annually-updated, four-year list of projects using federal funds. All federally-funded transportation projects must be consistent with Connected2045’s framework to be included in the Transportation Improvement Program (TIP).

Summary and Top PrioritiesConnected2045 employed an innovative and well-attended public engagement program to develop a vision for St. Louis’ future transportation system. In an effort to generate excitement about the Plan and reach stakeholders and the public early in the process, EWG partnered with the Missouri History Museum in conjunction with STL250, the 250th anniversary of the founding of St. Louis, to host a four-part regional discussion regarding major transportation issues in the region. At each event, regional leaders addressed the opportunities and challenges the St. Louis region faces as it plans for the future and citizens were given the opportunity to join the discussion and express their opinions via keypad polling. Chapter 1 of the Plan discusses what EWG learned at each of the four speaker series events, and outlines the region’s current transportation context and vision for the future.

The information and feedback received during the speaker series was supplemented by input received from Connected2045’s technical stakeholder group, consisting of regional experts representing many diverse perspectives, from freight and economic development practitioners, to senior citizens, and bicyclists. This group met for a series of workshops that focused on Connected2045’s performance management framework, outlined in Chapter 2, which will guide EWG as it implements the requirements of the current federal transportation law, Moving Ahead for Progress in the Twenty-First Century (MAP-21). With the help of the technical stakeholder group, EWG developed the framework to ensure the region’s transportation investments align with federal and state priorities. The framework also establishes a set of performance measures

that will allow EWG to score transportation projects and annually track progress toward achieving the region’s goals.

The feedback received from the public and stakeholders shaped Connected2045 during every phase of its development. The primary message EWG heard from stakeholders and the public was that the region needs to prioritize its limited transportation resources in projects that preserve and maintain its existing infrastructure.

Additionally, with regards to system expansion, there was a strong desire to invest in transportation projects that provide an alternative to single-occupancy automobile travel, primarily transit. Chapter 3 includes Connected2045’s Transportation Investment Plan. It outlines the major projects that will be funded over the next 30 years. Given limited financialresources,thislistcannotaddresstheentirety of the region’s transportation needs.

Chapter 4 of Connected2045 summarizes the Plan’s Air Quality Conformity process to ensure that the plan is consistent with regional and state efforts to improve air quality and protect public health.

The State of the System appendix supplements Connected2045. It explores the data and analysis that went into developing the Plan in more detail.

Presenter, Ron Elz, as “Johnny Rabbitt” at the Mo. History Museum.

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History of Transportation in St. Louis “We’ve been planning like it’s 1975. In a real sense, our transportation system hasn’t caught up with the 21st century.” – Anthony Foxx U.S. Transportation Secretary, 2015

In order to plan for the future of the region, it is vital to understand the history and current context of transportation in St. Louis. As such, Connected2045’sfirstspeakerserieseventattheMissouri History Museum focused on how St. Louis’ transportation past can inform future decision making. Images like those below, depicted lively St. Louis city streets accommodating street cars, horse-drawn carriages, automobiles and pedestrians at the same time.

However, the multi-modal streets of St. Louis started to look and function differently in the mid-twentieth century. In 1956 President Eisenhower signed

into law a Federal Highway Act that initiated the construction of a comprehensive national highway network. That legislation, along with the rise of the automobile, rapidly changed the transportation landscape in St. Louis. To many St. Louisans at the time, other modes of transportation like street cars and buses could not compete with the appeal and convenience of the automobile.

As more people began to move away from the city’s center, roadway engineers began prioritizing the needs of automobiles in roadway design; this focus continued for the next half century. The St. Louis region has successfully created a roadway network that provides a high degree of mobility for the automobile user and enables a majority of citizens to seamlessly reach their desired destinations. However, by prioritizing the needs of automobiles for over 50 years, the region now has limited travel options for those without a car.

The future of transportation in St. Louis “People think transportation 100 years ago was fundamentally different, but it wasn’t really. Back then we had steam- engine trains, trolleys, Model T’s. Now we have diesel-electric trains, the Metro and, soon, automated cars.” – Shawn Leight

In 1910, the Greater St. Louis Magazine published an illustration of how it envisioned the city in 100 years. Along with grand public monuments and towering skyscrapers, St. Louisans at the time assumed their streets would still accommodate a variety of transportation options, although the modes themselves would evolve as technology advanced. Looking forward to the transportation system of 2045, it is important to consider the potential impacts of technological advances in information, automobiles, and infrastructure.

Vandeventer and Chouteau Avenue, 1925. Sidewalk on Olive Street looking west toward Seventh Street, 1900.


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Over the past decade, smart phones and improved access to data have changed how people travel withfeaturesliketurn-by-turndirections,livetrafficupdates, and sophisticated mapping. As mobile access to real-time data becomes even more commonplace, travelers in the region will have better informationtomakemoreefficienttraveldecisions.Thismaynotonlyimprovetrafficcongestionandsafety, but improved access to data could also pave

the way for new, innovative transportation options like pop-up bus services, car- and ride-sharing, and same day delivery on goods and services.

Additionally, the future promises automobiles that can drive themselves, communicate with each other and with surrounding infrastructure. Currently, features like adaptive cruise control, assisted braking, lane keeping, blind spot warning, and parking assist come standard with many new cars. These pre-cursor technologies are paving the way for the self-driving and connected cars of the future, and may open up new opportunities for young, elderly and disabled citizens to travel with greater ease.

Transportation researchers are also making exciting advances in infrastructure technology. The highways of the future could be paved in solar LCD panels that can repair themselves, melt snow, and adjust their lane striping, all while generating a clean source of energy. Electric buses could seamlessly recharge at the beginning and end of their routes via electric booster charge plates set in the road. Preventative maintenance on the region’s bridges and highways couldbecomemoreefficientthroughtheuseofdrones by inspectors. Multi-modal travel around the region may also get easier with fully synchronized trafficsignals,intelligentpedestriancrossing,photo-luminescent road markings that glow in the dark, and bioluminescent trees for street lighting.

While it is exciting to envision a futuristic St. Louis, increased data collection and automation raise anumberofsignificantquestions:Willpeoplestill be able to drive their own cars? Are citizens comfortable with their travel data being shared with private companies? What will the impact of future technologies be on the environment? As society is at the cusp of many technological innovations, it is still premature to predict when they will be deployed, if at all, and what the implications of those deployments will be.

Transportation and the St. Louis Economy The transportation system plays a critical role in the health of St. Louis’ $141 billion dollar regional economy, an economy that includes more than 150,000 businesses employing over 1.3 million people. The region has the 21st largest metropolitan economy in the country, placing it behind Portland,

Oregon and ahead of Pittsburgh. The St. Louis economy is about the same size as the state economies of Nevada or Kansas, and if it were a nation, the St. Louis economy would be about the same size as the economies of Vietnam or Hungary.

Regional economic growth has rebounded and unemployment has decreased since the Great Recession of 2007-2009, but the regional economy has still not fully recovered after losing nearly six percent of its jobs from 2008 to 2010. Since the recession, the St. Louis economy has grown more slowly than most of its peer regions: of the top 50 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), St. Louis ranked 46th with respect to job growth, as shown in Table 1. In December 2014, the EWG region’s unemployment rate was 5.6 percent, fairly close to the national rate of 5.4 percent.

Table 2 shows long term changes in the economy. In the last quarter century, the region has lost over 45 percent of its manufacturing jobs. Even so, manufacturing remains a vital sector in the St. Louis economy, employing over 100,000 people Images Courtesy of Missouri History Museum –

http://www.historyhappenshere.org/node/6810

81% 77%OF MILLENNIALS ACTIVE BOOMERS

SAY AFFORDABLE AND CONVENIENT ALTERNATIVES

TO THE CAR IS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT IMPORTANT

WHEN DECIDING WHERE TO LIVE AND WORK

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in jobs with above average wages. Driven largely by increases in health care employment, the Professional and Business Services sector, along with Leisure and Hospitality, has experienced the largest increase in employment.

Asignificantcomponenttofutureeconomicgrowthin the region will be the quality of access. Ensuring access of goods to markets and of people to employment is critical to improving the regional economy and the wellbeing of residents. At the second Connected2045 Speaker Series event, a panel of regional freight and logistics leaders noted that while the St. Louis region has a competitive advantage in terms of its central location, low trafficcongestion,andrelativelylowcostofdoingbusiness, many employers in the region struggle to findaccesstoqualifiedlabor.Panelistscitedalackof alternative transportation options such as transit and bicycle facilities as one of the main reasons low-skill jobs, such as those in freight warehouses, are difficulttofill.Often,qualifiedprospectiveemployeesdo not have access to a personal vehicle and cannot

arrange other means to travel to and from work.

Similarly, attracting and retaining young talent is a concern among business leaders in the region. Even though St. Louis is known for its quality higher education options, the “brain drain” of skilled, college-educated students leaving St. Louis significantlyaffectsthequalityoftheregionallabor pool. Investing in alternative transportation options could help reverse this trend in the St. Louis region. An American Planning Association survey found that only eight percent of Millennials (those born between 1980 and 2001) would prefer to live in an auto-dependent suburb. By investing transportation dollars in walkable neighborhoods with bicycle facilities and transit options, St. Louis may encourage more college graduates to stay in the region.

Table 2: Employment by Sector, St. Louis MSA, 1990-2014 (in thousands)

Sector 1990 2014 Percent ChangeIndustry: Mining, Logging, and Construction 51.1 61.3 20.0Industry: Manufacturing 206.1 112.8 -45.3Industry: Retail Trade 142.1 137.5 -3.2Industry: Transportation and Utilities 48.2 46.8 -2.9Industry: Information 29.0 29.3 1.0Industry: Financial Activities 70.4 89.1 26.5Industry: Professional and Business Services 147.8 204.7 38.5Industry: Leisure and Hospitality 105.3 146.1 38.8Industry: Other Services 49.6 46.1 -7.1Industry: Government 140.1 158.9 13.4

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Table 1: METRO AREA POPULATION2013

Metropolitan Statistical Area 2010 2013 Percent Change

1 San Jose 898,748 1,012,978 12.72 Austin 806,530 905,684 12.33 San Francisco 2,005,300 2,236,330 11.54 Houston 2,636,307 2,921,521 10.85 Nashville 788,900 868,740 10.16 Raleigh 522,503 574,033 9.97 Salt Lake City 608,450 663,690 9.18 Riverside 1,222,880 1,330,536 8.89 Charlotte 999,715 1,086,935 8.7

10 Dallas 3,000,624 3,257,903 8.611 Denver 1,253,785 1,360,732 8.512 Los Angeles 5,465,547 5,928,537 8.513 Seattle 1,741,502 1,888,461 8.414 Orlando 1,011,704 1,092,757 8.015 Phoenix 1,731,734 1,859,980 7.416 Columbus 946,036 1,015,993 7.417 San Antonio 910,653 977,917 7.418 Detroit 1,773,386 1,903,712 7.319 Portland 1,022,097 1,094,850 7.120 Miami 2,294,720 2,454,632 7.021 Indianapolis 938,793 1,001,774 6.722 Sacramento 885,004 943,790 6.623 Oklahoma City 594,685 633,933 6.624 San Diego 1,407,396 1,492,427 6.025 Minneapolis 1,800,661 1,906,459 5.926 Atlanta 2,330,010 2,463,755 5.727 Louisville 595,209 628,835 5.628 Boston 2,487,077 2,620,247 5.4

U. S. Metropolitan Portion 118,540,676 124,801,514 5.329 Las Vegas 835,408 879,282 5.330 Tampa 1,160,265 1,220,910 5.231 Baltimore 1,328,424 1,391,290 4.732 Richmond 613,275 641,849 4.733 New York 8,763,594 9,157,095 4.534 Chicago 4,388,996 4,583,214 4.435 Jacksonville 611,693 636,862 4.136 Kansas City 1,001,229 1,041,599 4.037 Birmingham 502,930 521,294 3.738 Cleveland 1,014,533 1,051,285 3.639 New Orleans 559,873 579,694 3.540 Milwaukee 826,369 854,690 3.441 Cincinnati 1,005,942 1,040,070 3.442 Pittsburgh 1,152,643 1,189,222 3.243 Washington, DC 3,126,286 3,221,042 3.044 Providence 690,672 711,067 3.045 Hartford 627,073 645,330 2.946 St. Louis 1,338,283 1,371,788 2.547 Philadelphia 2,780,923 2,848,114 2.448 Memphis 615,697 628,140 2.049 Buffalo 541,874 552,358 1.950 Virginia Beach 839,153 844,396 0.6

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis


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25.4 Millennials

Drove 23% fewer miles

In 2009, compared to young adults in 2001:1 in 4

St. Louis residents will be 65 years or older in 2045. The number of seniors with a disability grew 6.5% from 2009 to 2012

Facts &Trends

57%Source: EWG

More St. Louisans lived in poverty in 2012 than in 2000

23.5%

13X A typical St. Louis resident with access to transit can reach 13x fewer jobs by a 45 minute transit commute than by a 45 minute driving commuteSource: Smart Location Database

$7,804 vs. $936

$172 Billion

Average annual cost of car ownership vs. Metro monthly passes for a yearSource: AAA & EWG

The anticipated national transportation funding shortfall by 2024

The percentage of black households that do not have access to a car, compared to 5.2% for white households

130%60%

Immigrants make up 4.5% of the region’s population, that share is growing by 2.1% annually. In St. Louis, immigrants are:

More likely to start a business

25

Source: EPA & EWG

DaysThe average number of unhealthy air quality days in St. Louis per year. Transportation emissions contribute to poor air quality

Miles per day

The average St. Louisan drives:

Source: EWG & US Census Bureau

Source: FHWA & EWG

Traveled

40% more transit miles

Took 24% more bike trips

Took 16% more walk trips

Source: National Household Travel Survey Source: 2012 American Community Survey

Source: ACS & St. Louis Mosaic Project

More likely to have an advanced degree

Source: Congressional Budget Office

Figure 1:

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“From 1950 through 2010 the population of the region grew by less than 50 percent, while the urbanized area more than quadrupled.”

Transportation and People Along with moving goods, the primary role of the St. Louis transportation system is to serve the needs of the 2.6 million citizens who live here. Over the last half century, the region’s slow growing population shifted away from the urban core to the more suburban and rural portions of the region. Since 1950, outlying counties like St. Charles, Jefferson and Monroe saw the greatest increases in population, while St. Louis city saw the greatest population decline.

This trend may slowly be changing. Since 2010, the population in the city of St. Louis has started to stabilize and St. Louis County, which experienced a population decline from 2000 to 2010, also started to see modest growth from 2010-2013. Although the aforementioned outlying counties are still growing, their rate of growth has slowed down. Changing social and demographic trends in the region may help explain this new trend. For example, younger people are increasingly drawn to more walkable, mixed-use communities, while retirees desire better access to medical care, public transportation, and cultural amenities.

The third Connected2045 Speaker Series event at the Missouri History Museum included a panel of regional leaders representing the interests of the elderly, disabled, immigrant, young, business, and low-income communities, in addition to elected officialsandthepress.Panelistswereaskedtorespond to various future scenarios given the facts and trends presented in Figure 1. Panelists

observed that due to the auto-oriented nature of the region, maintaining the system of roads and bridges will be vital to ensuring that people and goods can quicklyandefficientlymovearoundtheregion.One of the primary concerns among panelists was accommodating the transportation needs of the region’s growing elderly and disabled populations who may not be able to operate a car on their own. The aging of the population is a national trend, but the St. Louis region is aging more rapidly than most of the rest of the United States. Figures 2 and 3 depicts age distributions for the years 2014 and 2045 using fertility and mortality projections from the Centers for Disease Control. For the region, the number of individuals over age 65 is projected to increase by 76 percent and the number of persons over age 85 is projected to more than double. Investing in alternative transportation options like transit and pedestrian facilities will give older adults in the region more choice over where they live and how they travel.

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Age Pyramid, St. Louis Region, 2014 Age Pyramid, St. Louis Region, 2045Figure 2: Age Pyramid, St. Louis Region, 2014 Figure 3: Age Pyramid, St. Louis Region, 2045


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Figure 4: Highway Trust Fund Balance

FY09-FY15 in Billions of Dollars

Leaders representing the immigrant, low-income and young communities also agreed that investing in alternatives will be critical as their constituents often times cannot afford a personal automobile or prefer to live in areas with more than one transportation option.

The Transportation Funding Crisis“Transportation Finance: The glass is not only half empty, it’s cracked” – Jerry Blair, Director of Transportation EWG

BythefinalConnected2045 Speaker Series event, two themes had emerged from engaging citizens and stakeholders: preserving the existing system and investing in alternatives to single-occupancy automobile travel. The discussion then turned to how tofundtheneedsandprioritiesidentified.

Historically, investments in highway infrastructure have primarily been funded though national and state taxes on motor fuels. However, the national motor fuel tax has not been raised since 1993 (even toaccountforinflation);thelasttimeIllinoisandMissouri increased their gas taxes were 1990 and 1996, respectively. This, combined with an increase in the cost of construction materials, a decrease in the overall mileage driven by Americans, and the increaseduseofmorefuelefficientvehicles,hassignificantlyloweredtheamountofmoneyavailableto fund transportation at all levels of government.

Currently,theCongressionalBudgetOfficeanticipates that by 2024 there will be a $172 billion shortfall in the national transportation budget. Figure 4 depicts the decline in the Highway Trust Fund balance since 2008. The Missouri Department of Transportation predicts that residents in the St. Louis region will really start to feel the effects of this shortfall in the coming years as roads become rougher and aging bridges must be closed due to unaffordable rehabilitation costs.

The traditional means of funding transportation in St. Louis and across the nation are no longer viable

—policy makers nationally and at the state and local level will need to consider new transportation funding mechanisms, including but not limited to a vehicle-miles-traveled fee, sales tax, increased motor fuel taxes, public-private partnerships, freight fees, tolls or some combination thereof to ensure adequate funding in the future.

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Figure 2: Highway Trust Fund Balance FY09-FY15 in Billions of dollars

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Chapter 2: Performance Management Framework

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To guide decision-making and comply with the current federal transportation legislation, MAP-21, Connected2045’s Technical Stakeholder group built the Performance Management Framework, Table 1 on the following page, around EWG’s 10 Guiding Principles. When read from left to right, the framework shows how federal and state transportation goals align with EWG’s 10 Guiding Principles. It also establishes two levels of performance metrics that are directly tied to each of the 10 Principles and will allow EWG to track progress toward its goals.

• The system level performance metrics will be updated in an annual report by EWG. By tracking these measures over time, EWG will be able to ensure that investments in the transportation system are moving the region toward achieving its goals.

• The project level performance metrics were used to score and prioritize the transportation projects included in Chapter 3’s Investment Plan.

The performance metrics included in the Framework were selected with stakeholder input based on the criteria in Figure 5—the selection criteria represent EWG’s use of national best practices in performance management, in particular the recommendations of the Federal Highway Administration.

EWG’s 10 Guiding Principles In 2009, the Council conducted the Renewing the Region (RTR) initiative to assess the region’s economic and social health, and to explore possible ways to enhance cooperative planning and action in the region. The 10 Guiding Principles were derived from discussions with a broad range of citizens and regional leaders; those discussions occurred through interviews, focus groups and small group meetings, centered on identifying issues likely to affect the region’s future growth and prosperity. In the region’s last long-range transportation plan, RTP 2040, the 10 Guiding Principles were used to establish a set of policy-focused strategies based on the intent of the Principles, an analysis of regional trends and challenges, an assessment of strategies in previous long-range plans, and input from the public. To build on that, Connected2045 updates and operationalizes the Principles by aligning them with federal /state goals and related performance metrics. The Principles challenge the region to think beyond strictly transportation and begin to make the connection between transportation and the broader society.

Additionally, the Principles work together as one unit, as opposed to 10 individual goals. For example, transportation investments that focus on strengthening “Intermodal Connections” also support other Principles like “Support a Diverse Economy with a Reliable Transportation System” and “Support Quality Job Development”. Figure 6 illustrates the interrelated nature of the Principles.

OneSTL Performance Indicators

Some of the performance metrics included in Connected2045 Performance Management Framework are shared with the OneSTL plan for sustainable development; these metrics are indicated with an asterisk in the Framework. OneSTL includes 58 performance indicators, organized by the nine themes of the plan that measure the St. Louis region’s progress toward sustainability. Analysis of the indicators will better equip the region to make data-driven decisions, set priorities, evaluate the effectiveness of the plan, and revise the plan to achieve success. See http://www.onestl.org/indicators for more on the OneSTL Performance Indicators.

Figure 5:

Performance Metric Selection Criteria•Does the metric represent a key

concern?

• Is the metric clear and understandable?

•Are data available for the metric?

•Can the metric be forecasted?

• Is the metric something EWG can influencewithitsinvestments?

• Is the metric tied to desired outcomes?

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Table 1: Performance Management Framework

MAP-21 Goals MoDOT Goals IDOT Goals EWG’s 10 Guiding Principles “System

Measures”“Project Scoring

Measures”

Infrastructure Condition Taking care of the system

Preserve and Manage the Existing System

“Preserve and Maintain the Existing System”

Ensure the transportation system remains in a state of good repair.

•BridgeCondition* •PavementCondition*

Project Addresses PreservationDeficiency

Connections & Choices

Promote Funding for the Public Component of the System

“Support Public Transportation”

Invest in public transportation to spur economic development, protect the environment and improve quality of life.

•TransitRidership** •TransitAccess**

Project Strengthens Transit System


“Support Neighborhoods &

Communities”

Connect communities to opportunities and resources across the region.

•Housing+TransportationCost** Project Increases Access to Regional Resources

“Foster a Vibrant Downtown &

Central Core”

Improve access to and mobility within the central core by all modes to increase the attractiveness of St. Louis and strengthen the regional economy.

•PopulationandEmploymentintheCentral Core

Project Serves Downtown and/or the Central Core


Provide a System that Offers a High Degree of Multi-Modal Connectivity, Mobility and Accessibility

“Provide More Transportation

Choices”

Create viable alternatives to automobile travel by providing bicycle and pedestrian facilities.

•ModeSplit** •Vehiclemilestraveledpercapita**

Project Includes Bike/Pedestrian Element

Safety Safety Improve Transportaiton Safety “Promote Safety and Security”

Provide a safe and secure transportation system for all users.

•Number/RateofFatalities* •Number/RateofSeriousInjuries*

Project Improves User Safety

Congestion Reduction & System Reliability

Economic Development

Address Congestion and MaximizeEfficiencyandEffectiveness through Operations

“Support a Diverse Economy

with a Reliable System”

Reduce congestion and improve travel time reliability to support the diverse economic sectors of the region.

•AnnualHoursofDelay* •PlanningTimeIndex*

Project Improves System Reliability


Target Investments to Support Business and Employment Growth

“Support Quality Job Development”

Support the growth of wealth producing jobs that allow residents to save and return money to the economy.

•AccesstoQualityJobs Project Increases Access to Quality Job Clusters

Freight Movement & Economic Vitality


ProvideforEfficientFreightMovement

“Strengthen Intermodal Connections”

Support freight movement and connections that are critical to the efficientflowofbothpeopleandgoods.

•AnnualHoursofTruckDelay* •TruckCongestionCost* •FreightTonnage

Project Supports Regional Freight Assets

Environmental Sustainability

Ensure a Compatible Interface of the System with Environmental, Social, Energy and Land Use Considerations

“Protect Air Quality and Environmental

Assets”

Encourage investments that recognize the linkages between the social, economic, and natural fabric of the region.

•CriteriaPollutantEmissions* •Conservation&EnvironmentalSignificanceScore

Project Improves Air Quality/Protects the Natural Environment

*Anticipated MAP-21 Requirement **OneSTL Performance Indicator

Connected2045Long-Range Transportation Plan for the St. Louis Region

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Where We Stand

Some of the tables included in the 10 Principle Fact Sheets come from East-West Gateway’s publication, Where We Stand: The Strategic Assessment of the St. Louis Region. Since 1992 the agency has published six editions of this report which compares St. Louis to 34 peer metropolitan regions on a range of topics important to the St. Louis region. The 6th Edition, released in 2011, includes 129datapointswhichprovideobjective,verifiable,and reliable data that can be used to understand the St. Louis region’s advantages and challenges. See www.ewgateway.org/wws for the series of Where We Stand reports.

The 10 Principles and How They Interrelate

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Figure 6: The 10 Principles and How They Support Each Other

| 13Connected2045

The following pages of Chapter 2 include Fact Sheets for each of the 10 Guiding Principles. Those sheets include: •An explanation and

discussion of the principle,•Relevant data relating to

that principle in the St. Louis region

•Policy strategies to guide future EWG decision-making

•System-level performance measures that will allow EWG to track progress toward that principle on an annual basis

Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act and Performance Management Enacted in July 2012, MAP-21 is the federal legislation that guides transportation investments at all levels of government. The legislation established the following national performance goals:

Goal area National goal

Safety Toachieveasignificantreductionintrafficfatalitiesandserious injuries on all public roads

Infrastructure condition To maintain the highway infrastructure asset system in a state of good repair

Congestion reduction ToachieveasignificantreductionincongestionontheNational Highway System

System reliability Toimprovetheefficiencyofthesurfacetransportationsystem

Freight movement and economic vitality

To improve the national freight network, strengthen the ability of rural communities to access national and international trade markets, and support regional economic development

Environmental sustainability To enhance the performance of the transportation system while protecting and enhancing the natural environment

Reduced project delivery delays

To reduce project costs, promote jobs and the economy, and expedite the movement of people and goods by accelerating project completion through eliminating delays in the project development and delivery process, including reducing regulatory burdens and improving agencies’ work practices

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Under Map-21, Metropolitan Planning Organizations are required to establish a performance and outcome-based program to ensure that investments in transportation will make progress toward achieving national goals. Connected2045’s Performance Management Framework shows how EWG’s 10 Guiding Principles align with federal goal areas. The Framework also establishes a set of system-level and project level performance measures that are tied to the 10 Guiding Principles and will allow EWG to evaluate individual transportation projects and the system as a whole in a way that prioritizes federal, state and regional goals.


One of the major challenges facing the federal government, states and metropolitan areas is keeping the transportation system in good repair. The decades-long emphasis on system expansion has limited the resources available for rehabilitating and replacing aging system components failing pavements, deficientbridges,anddeterioratedtransit facilities create safety problems, reduce operational efficiency,andnegativelyimpacttravel quality.Deficientbridgesanddeteriorating pavement are spread throughout the St. Louis, impacting the travel of citizens and businesses within and through the region

Deferringpreservationworkissignificantlymore expensive than pursuing a regular cycle of maintenance, rehabilitation, and replacement. Although transportation infrastructure in the St. Louis region is in relatively good condition compared to much of the United States, the current transportation funding shortfall emphasizes the need to prioritize limited resources in the preservation of existing infrastructure to avoid incurring much larger expenses in the future.

EWG will track system condition over time to assist in prioritizing funding, recognizing that system preservation is a regional issue—suburban, rural, and urban areas all face the challenge of maintaining the transportation system to serve the needs of citizens both now and into the future.

Preserve and Maintain the Existing SystemEnsure that the transportation system remains in a state of good repair.

HIGHER

LOWER

AVERAGE

DEFICIENT BRIDGESPercent of bridge deck area that is

obsolete, 2013

1 New York 63.02 Boston 56.73 Pittsburgh 55.24 San Francisco 50.45 Seattle 49.36 Detroit 49.27 Chicago 47.18 Cleveland 44.79 Philadelphia 42.5

10 Los Angeles 41.711 Cincinnati 37.412 Washington DC 37.113 Portland 36.614 Dallas 34.2

Average 33.915 Charlotte 32.016 Houston 30.917 Louisville 30.818 Milwaukee 30.619 Baltimore 30.520 Indianapolis 30.121 Kansas City 30.022 Memphis 29.823 Columbus 29.824 St. Louis 29.125 Oklahoma City 28.626 Denver 27.627 Phoenix 26.228 San Antonio 24.029 Austin 22.730 Miami 22.731 Nashville 20.932 Atlanta 20.333 San Diego 19.434 Minneapolis 14.635 Salt Lake City 9.3

Source: FHWA, National Bridge Inventory, 2013

Map 1: Deficient Bridges in the St. Louis Region

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30

40

50

60

70

Perc

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State Local

Percent of Deficient Bridges in Missouri and Illinois Counties, 2014

Source: FHWA, National Bridge Inventory, 2014

Figure 7: Percent of Deficient Bridges in

Missouri and Illinois Counties, 2014

| 15Connected2045

StrategiesStrategy: Ensure investments in preservation are adequate to

continuously improve pavement and bridge conditions on state highway systems.

Strategy: Ensure investments in transit are adequate to keep the current fleet in a state of good repair and to maintain operations.

Strategy: Ensure investments in bicycle and pedestrian facilities are adequate to keep the current network in a state of good repair.

Strategy: Effectively manage and maximize the efficiency of existing transportation assets by prioritizing limited resources on rehabilitating and replacing aging infrastructure over system expansion.

Strategy: Give priority to preservation in the programming of suballocated federal funds to encourage consistent improvement of locally-owned roads and bridges.

Strategy: Employ life-cycle analyses with any capacity expansion projects and demonstrate resources for future operations and maintenance.

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Between 2009 and 2011, Missouri spent 62% of highway funding onexpansion and 38% for repair.

Illinois spent 35% on expansion and 65% on repair.

IL

MO

PerformanceMeasures Definition

Desired Trend Baseline

BridgesPercent of Bridges in the Region Rated Structurally Deficient Þ 20

14 21.1%

Pavement Percent of pavement rated “not acceptable” Þ 20

13 13%

Performance Measures

0.00

25.00

50.00

75.00

100.00

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Perc

ent A

ccep

tabl

e

Missouri Illinois Region

Percent of Acceptable Pavement Conditions by State Maintained Roads, 2007-2013

Source: IDOT, MoDOT

Figure 8: Percent of Acceptable Pavement Conditions by

State Maintained Roads, 2007-2013

Source: Smart Growth America: Repair Priorities 2014Transportation spending strategies to save taxpayer dollars and improve roads.


Public transit—Metrolink light rail, buses, and paratransit services for seniors and those with disabilities—providesavarietyofbenefits,including accessible transportation options for users of all ages and abilities, reduced pollution, reduced energy use, and reduced congestion on roads. Public transit also benefitsthelocaleconomyandincreasesaccess to employment opportunities.

Despite recent service improvements (including new articulated buses and a new CORTEX Metrolink station to be constructed in 2016 or 2017) and nearly 50 million annual transit trips, the St. Louis region ranks below average among peer regions on measures of transit. For example, only 2.3 percent of workers used public transit to get to work in 2012 and only 56.6 percent of workers reside in areas that have access to transit.

Investments in transit are essential to the futureoftheregionwithbenefitsaccruingto everyone—every $1 invested in public transportation generates approximately $4 in economic returns; every $10 million in capital investment in public transportation yields $30 million in increased business sales; every $10 million in operating investment yields $32 million in increased business sales; and from 2006-2011, residential property values performed 42 percent better on average if they were located near public transportation with high-frequency service.

Support Public TransportationInvest in public transportation to spur economic development, protect the environment and improve quality of life for regional citizens.

HIGHER

LOWER

AVERAGE

TRANSIT MODE SHAREPercent of total workers whose

means of transportation is public transit, 2012

1 New York 31.02 San Francisco 15.63 Washington DC 14.14 Boston 12.25 Chicago 11.16 Philadelphia 9.47 Seattle 8.58 Baltimore 6.59 Portland 6.0

10 Los Angeles 6.011 Pittsburgh 5.5

Average 5.212 Denver 4.413 Minneapolis 4.314 Miami 4.215 Salt Lake City 3.916 Milwaukee 3.717 Cleveland 3.218 Atlanta 2.919 San Diego 2.820 Houston 2.621 Austin 2.322 St. Louis 2.323 San Antonio 2.324 Charlotte 2.125 Phoenix 2.126 Louisville 1.827 Cincinnati 1.828 Columbus 1.629 Detroit 1.630 Dallas 1.531 Memphis 1.232 Indianapolis 1.233 Kansas City 1.134 Nashville 1.135 Oklahoma City 0.4

Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

Map 2: Residential Transit Access in the St. Louis Region

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0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Transit Trips 2002-2013Figure 9: Transit Trips 2002-2013

| 17Connected2045

StrategiesStrategy: Encourage efforts to create a statewide transit funding

program in Missouri

Strategy: Provide educational and planning assistance to encourage transit oriented development.

Strategy: Promote projects that improve multi-modal connections between existing transit stops and surrounding communities.

Strategy: Continue to study and identify funding sources for MetroLink expansion.

Strategy: Support the implementation of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), trolley and street car initiatives.

Strategy: Ensure adequate funding for regional paratransit providers that serve disabled and elderly populations.

Strategy: Support the national High-Speed Intercity Passenger Rail Program, in particular the Chicago to St. Louis route.

45.5 million passengerboardings on the transit system

in the St. Louis region

Map 3: Percent Jobs Accessible by Transit, St. Louis Region

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Transit Ridership

Annual transit boardings system-wide (MetroLink/Bus System/Call-A-Ride) Ý 20

13 49.9 million

Transit Access

Percent of households within 1/4 mile of a transit stop Ý

2007

-201

1

42%



The transportation system provides value to neighborhoods and communities in the St. Louis region by improving access to destinations spread throughout 8,600 square miles in eight counties. Recent land development patterns have increased the amount of developed land per capita, creating a larger, less dense region, and making those destinations more spread out.

To reduce transportation costs and help communities in the region thrive, transportation options that allow residents to reach important destinations such as schools, health care facilities, grocery stores, and parks must be available. Environmental justice communities warrant additional attention to ensure that residents have access to resources and that transportationprojectsreflectcommunityvalues.

One way to examine how well the region is meeting the accessibility needs of residents is to look at the combined affordability of housingandtransportation(H+T).Thesetwocosts are the largest expenditures for most householdsandtheyindicatehowefficientlythe transportation network connects people to destinations and whether or not the region is providing its citizens with options to live and work in locations that make sense for them. Currently, the St. Louis region ranks below average in terms of combined housing and transportation costs. This is a positive statistic which means it is a more affordable region in which to live and travel.

Support Neighborhoods and CommunitiesConnect communities to opportunities across the region.

HIGHER

LOWER

AVERAGE

HOUSING PLUS TRANSPORTATION

AFFORDABILITYTransportation and housing costs as a percent of median household

income, 2005-2009

1 Miami 60.22 Memphis 57.63 Los Angeles 56.54 San Diego 55.45 Oklahoma City 53.16 Nashville 52.97 Phoenix 52.88 Cleveland 52.89 Atlanta 52.410 Detroit 52.311 Dallas 52.212 San Antonio 52.213 Charlotte 51.914 Columbus 51.915 Portland 51.816 Austin 51.817 Houston 51.318 Louisville 51.3

Average 51.019 Milwaukee 50.720 Cincinnati 50.721 Indianapolis 50.322 Salt Lake City 50.223 Chicago 50.024 Pittsburgh 49.925 Kansas City 49.426 St. Louis 49.227 Seattle 49.128 Denver 49.029 San Francisco 48.430 Philadelphia 47.931 New York 47.932 Boston 47.133 Minneapolis 47.034 Baltimore 46.535 Washington D.C. 43.1

Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology

Map 4: H+T Index at Current Gas Prices

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3

3.5

4

4.5

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Regular Gasoline Prices, 2005-2015Figure 10: Regular Gasoline Prices, 2005-2015

| 19Connected2045

StrategiesStrategy: Provide educational and planning assistance to local

governments to expand the implementation of Great Streets and Complete Streets principles.

Strategy: Prioritize projects that include multi-modal access to community resources, especially for environmental justice populations.

Strategy: Ensure that low-income, minority and aging populations have equal access to the metropolitan planning and decision making process through proactive outreach.

Strategy: Support planning and development efforts in areas with high growth or redevelopment potential by prioritizing their transportation infrastructure needs and encouraging local government participation in regional planning efforts.

Strategy: Reduce combined housing and transportation costs by encouraging coordinated land use and transportation planning that increases access to community resources, promotes public health, and improves access to transit and active modes of transportation.

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H+T CostsAverage Proportion of household income spent on housing and transportation costs in the St. Louis region

Þ

2005

-200

9

54.8%


Map 5: Environmental Justice

EJ areas are places that have high concentrations of one or more of the following populations: elderly, disabled, minorities, persons in poverty and zero-vehicle households.


The health of St. Louis’s downtown and central core is closely tied to the overall health of the region.Asasignificantjobandpopulationcenter, the central core serves as:

•The region’s primary economic engine

•The face of the region for businesses and people interested in relocation

•The sports, cultural and entertainment hub of the region

Strengthening St. Louis’ central core is essential to the entire region. Despite hundreds of thousands of workers commuting there to work daily from throughout the region, the share of employment in the central core has declined disproportionately over the past 15 years. Currently St. Louis ranks well below average among peer regions with regards to employment in the central business district. Additionally, population in the region’s central core has dramatically declined over the past half century as citizens continued to move outward. However, most recent data show that this trend may gradually be reversing. Continuing to invest in multi-modal access to and mobility within the region’s central core and downtown will support the regional economy, enhance quality of life for residents and make the St. Louis region more attractive to visitors.

Map 6: St. Louis Region Central Core Total Commuter Flow

HIGHER

LOWER

AVERAGE

EMPLOYMENT IN CENTRAL BUSINESS

DISTRICTShare of jobs within 3 miles of central business district, 2010

1 Salt Lake City 31.82 New York 30.93 Boston 29.24 Louisville 28.95 Seattle 27.46 Nashville 27.07 Oklahoma City 26.48 Pittsburgh 25.29 San Francisco 25.2

10 Minneapolis 25.111 Austin 24.312 Miami 24.313 Milwaukee 24.114 Portland 23.815 Charlotte 23.516 Washington D.C. 21.817 Denver 21.518 Columbus 21.2

Average 20.119 Chicago 19.520 Indianapolis 19.521 Phoenix 18.122 Cincinnati 17.723 Baltimore 17.524 Kansas City 16.925 Cleveland 15.426 Philadelphia 15.227 San Antonio 13.828 Dallas 13.329 St. Louis 13.230 Memphis 12.431 San Diego 12.332 Houston 10.733 Atlanta 9.934 Los Angeles 9.935 Detroit 7.3

Source: Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings, 2013

Foster a Vibrant Downtown and Central Core

Improve access to and mobility within the central core by all modes to increase the attractiveness of St. Louis and strengthen the regional economy.

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Table 2: Employment Location of Regional Workforce

County of Residence

County of Employment Madison Monroe St. Clair Franklin Jefferson St. Charles St. Louis

City of St. Louis Outside

Madison 48.0% 3.9% 10.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% 14.8%

Monroe 0.3% 20.9% 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9%

St. Clair 10.9% 13.5% 47.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 1.3% 10.9%

Franklin 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 42.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 5.4%

Jefferson 0.3% 1.8% 0.4% 3.2% 25.6% 0.8% 1.8% 1.3% 4.5%

St. Charles 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% 5.1% 3.2% 36.1% 5.5% 2.9% 12.6%

St. Louis 14.5% 21.3% 12.6% 27.5% 46.3% 45.9% 65.5% 43.7% 35.4%

City of St. Louis 10.2% 12.0% 13.7% 6.0% 13.7% 8.0% 20.0% 44.4% 15.4%

Outside 14.2% 25.2% 12.3% 15.5% 7.9% 7.3% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0%

| 21Connected2045

StrategiesStrategy: Encourage projects that incorporate welcoming

entryways into downtown, multi-modal linkages to surrounding neighborhoods, and wayfinding for all modes in the downtown area.

Strategy: Support the implementation of central core projects outlined in regional plans and studies, including the Gateway Bike Plan, Downtown Next: 2020 Vision for Downtown St. Louis, Downtown Multi-Modal Access Study, Downtown Street Car Study and OneSTL Transit Oriented Development Study.

Strategy: Continue to increase transit service in the central core to support the travel needs of residents and access to/from economic activity centers.

Strategy: Collaborate with developers, local governments and businesses to coordinate (re)development projects that leverage existing or planned transportation investments.

Strategy: Monitor congestion and traffic flow reliability in the central core to ensure that highway-based trips within, into, and out of the core do not experience unreliable delays on a daily basis.

Strategy: Improve ADA accessibility through transportation investments in the central core.

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Central Core Health: Jobs

Employment in the Central Core Ý 20

13 371,144

Central Core Health: People

Population in the Central Core Ý 20

10 523,166


Map 7: Population Change 2000-2010 in the St. Louis Region


Provide More Transportation ChoicesCreate viable alternatives to private automobile travel by providing comprehensive bicycle and pedestrian facilities.

A comprehensive, safe, and inviting walking and bicycling environment is essential for the region and improves quality of life by:

•Encouraging healthier and more active lifestyles,

•Reducingtrafficcongestion•Providing alternatives to automobile travel,

especially for those without access to personal vehicles

•Expanding the reach of mass transit

Currently, a relatively small portion of St. Louis citizens commute via walking, bicycling, public transportation or carpooling. However, in recent years active transportation facilities (such as sidewalks, on-street bicycle facilities, shared use paths, accessible transit stops, andwayfinding)havebecomemorecommonthroughout the region. As of 2013, the bicycle facility network consisted of approximately 740 miles of on-street facilities and trails

St. Louisans are also driving less. Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per capita in the region declined 18.6 percent between 1998 and 2011. Prior growth in VMT was driven in large part by the combined effects of large-scale highway construction, women entering the workforce, a large baby boom population, growing incomes, rising automobile ownership, and restrictions on compact, mixed-use development. Declines in VMT can be traced to the weakening influenceofthesefactors,alongwithincreasedinterest in alternative modes of transportation and urban living among younger people and aging baby boomers, the economic downturn of the late 2000s, and increased investment in bicycle and pedestrian facilities throughout the region.

HIGHER

LOWER

AVERAGE

TRANSPORTATION CHOICE

Total percent of workers commuting via walking, bicycling, transit, or

rideshare, 2013

1 New York 44.22 San Francisco 32.53 Washington D.C. 27.94 Boston 26.05 Seattle 23.86 Chicago 23.67 Philadelphia 22.28 Portland 21.89 Los Angeles 19.3

Average 17.410 Salt Lake City 18.411 Baltimore 17.712 Pittsburgh 17.113 San Diego 16.514 Denver 16.315 Miami 16.116 Minneapolis 16.017 Phoenix 15.818 San Antonio 15.419 Houston 15.220 Milwaukee 15.121 Atlanta 15.022 Austin 14.823 Charlotte 13.324 Dallas 12.925 Cleveland 12.826 Cincinnati 12.527 Columbus 12.528 Memphis 12.529 Oklahoma City 12.230 St. Louis 11.931 Indianapolis 11.732 Louisville 11.733 Detroit 11.734 Nashville 11.735 Kansas City 11.6

Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

Map 8: St. Louis Regional Bicycle Facilities

82.9%

7.8%

2.7%3.8% 2.8%

Means of Transportation to Work, EWG Region(2013)

Drove alone

Carpool

Transit

Work at Home

Other

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EWG Region, 2013

| 23Connected2045

2% of commuters in the region walk or bike

22

24

26

28

30

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Year

VMT per CapitaAnnual Average Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled per Capita

UnitedStates

St. LouisRegion

StrategiesStrategy: Coordinate with implementing agencies to overcome

physical barriers and provide safe, low-stress environments for walking and bicycling.

Strategy: Enhance connections between neighborhoods and activity centers through access to transit and comprehensive pedestrian and bicycle facilities using Complete Street principles.

Strategy: Increase mobility and access to opportunities by coordinating land use and multi-modal transportation planning.

Strategy: Promote the development of bicycle and pedestrian facilities that use best practices guidance from FHWA, NACTO, and OneSTL.

Strategy: Work with the disabled community and local agencies to ensure that all planning and implementation processes meet or exceed ADA requirements.

Strategy: Assist in implementing regional and municipal bicycle and pedestrian plans, for example bikeable/walkable plans like including the bike share study and the Gateway Bike Plan.

Strategy: Coordinate with partners to collect, maintain and publicize bicycle and pedestrian facility and user data.

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Mode SplitTotal percent of workers commuting via walking, biking, transit, or rideshare Ý 20

10 12.5%

Vehicle Miles Traveled per Capita

Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per capita per day Þ 20

13 25.4Miles


Figure 13: VMT per Capita

Annual Average Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled per Capita


Safety throughout the system—for motorists, transit, emergency response, freight movement and non-motorized users such as bicyclists and pedestrians—should be a top priority in transportation planning. In addition to causing preventable deaths and serious injuries, motor vehicle crashes across the region are a cause of major economic losses and disruptions to the transportation system—the economic impact of motor vehicle crashes in the St. Louis region alone was estimated at $3.2 billion in 2013.While the St. Louis region has steadily decreased its crash rate in recent years, the region ranks above average among peer regions with regard to crash fatality rates, measured both by population and vehicle miles traveled. Additionally, the city of St. Louis is on FHWA’s Pedestrian Safety Focus City List due to a high (albeit gradually declining) pedestrian and bicyclist crash rate.

One element of EWG’s performance management framework is tracking progress on transportation safety to ensure that investments in the transportation system reducebothtrafficfatalitiesandseriousinjuries in absolute terms, but also that crash rates decrease over time to provide a safer transportation system for all users.

Promote Safety and SecurityProvide a safe and secure transportation system for all users.

HIGHER

LOWER

AVERAGE

FATALITY RATECrash fatalities per

100,000 population, 2012

1 Oklahoma City 13.52 Charlotte 12.53 Nashville 12.24 San Antonio 11.15 Memphis 10.86 Louisville 10.57 Kansas City 10.48 St. Louis 10.19 Austin 10.0

10 Pittsburgh 9.711 Cincinnati 9.612 Atlanta 9.313 Houston 9.314 Indianapolis 8.915 Miami 8.916 Dallas 8.717 Columbus 8.618 Phoenix 8.419 Baltimore 8.4

Average 8.120 Philadelphia 7.521 Milwaukee 7.522 Detroit 7.323 Salt Lake City 7.024 San Diego 6.625 Washington D.C. 5.826 Denver 5.727 Los Angeles 5.728 Chicago 5.429 New York 5.230 Portland 5.131 Minneapolis 5.032 Cleveland 4.933 Seattle 4.834 Boston 4.735 San Francisco 4.4

Safety Administration, Fatality Analysis Reporting System, 2012

Map 9: Fatal Crashes in the St. Louis Region

SAFETY A

ND

SECU

RITY

Table 3: Crashes per One Million Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) by County, St. Louis Region, 2005 to 2012 County 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Madison 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.6 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8

Monroe 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.5

St. Clair 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0

Franklin 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.6

Jefferson 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.1

St. Charles 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.4 2.5 2.6 2.4

St. Louis County 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.8 2.9 2.8 2.9

City of St. Louis 14.7 13.3 12.6 12.5 12.7 5.9 5.7 7.9

St. Louis Region 4.4 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 2.9 2.8 2.8

Source: IDOT, MoDOT

| 25Connected2045

StrategiesStrategy: Continue efforts with partners to help develop strategic

highway safety plans for each county in the region and publicize key findings.

Strategy: Incorporate safety issues identified in state and local strategic highway safety plans into the planning process.

Strategy: Support projects that focus on pedestrian safety in the region .

Strategy: Collaborate with MoDOT and IDOT to advance and continue teen and elderly driver safety programs.

Strategy: Continue to work with partners to integrate complete streets planning that focuses on engineering, education, enforcement and emergency response.

Strategy: Support training of emergency officials for traffic and transit incident management.

Strategy: Utilize the results of the STARRS All Ready Preparedness Project’s survey to ensure populations with functional and/or access needs are prepared for a major disaster.

Strategy: Strengthen regional security initiatives which create a region-wide communications system that supports daily emergency response and a massive response initiative for major disasters.

SAFE

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Number of Fatalities

Five year moving average of the count of the number of fatalities on all public roads for a calendar year

Þ

2009

-201

3

277

Number of Disabling Injuries

Five year moving average of the count of the number of disabling injuries on all public roads for a calendar year

Þ

2009

-201

3

2,436


050100150200250300350400450

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Popu

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undr

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f tho

usan

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(hun

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illio

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VMT

Crash Rate 2009-2013Figure 14: Crash Rate by Population and VMT, 2009 to 2013


The transportation needs of the regional economy are as diverse as the economy itself. One sector might require the reliable movement of heavy goods into and out of the area; another sector might rely on public transportation for access to labor; and another might necessitate good airline connections to other major cities. A multimodal transportation system that provides good mobility, whose component parts work together seamlessly while maximizing transportation system efficiencyandreliabilityasmuchaspossible,is necessary to sustain and grow the region’s economy. It is essential to understand the transportation needs of the various economic sectors throughout the region and target investments to meet those needs.

Currently, the St. Louis region, when compared to peer regions around the country, does not experience serious congestion—the region fares well on measures of travel reliability and delay, with conditions improving over recent years. The role of transportation planning and operations is to work towards providing a reliable system that can manage any delays that do occur, be they recurring or non-recurring. Recent investments in Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) have improved the travel experience for both commuters and freight.

Support a Diverse EconomySupport a Diverse Economy with a Reliable Transportation System

DIVER

SE ECO

NO

MY

HIGHER

LOWER

AVERAGE

ANNUAL HOURS OF DELAY

Total Hours (000)

1 New York 544,063 2 Los Angeles 501,881 3 Chicago 271,718 4 Washington 179,331 5 Miami 174,612 6 Dallas 167,718 7 Philadelphia 156,027 8 San Francisco 155,157 9 Houston 145,832 10 Atlanta 142,041 11 Boston 136,966

Average 106,96912 Detroit 106,434 13 Seattle 100,802 14 Phoenix-Mesa 82,554 15 Denver-Aurora 76,154 16 San Diego 72,331 17 Baltimore 70,263 18 Minneapolis 60,788 19 Portland 51,987 20 St. Louis 49,605 21 Pittsburgh 46,725 22 Cincinnati 42,785 23 San Antonio 39,998 24 Austin TX 38,307 25 Nashville 35,781 26 Columbus 35,689 27 Indianapolis 35,186 28 Cleveland 34,980 29 Kansas City 29,448 30 Charlotte 28,974 31 Memphis 28,700 32 Milwaukee 27,755 33 Louisville 26,253 34 Oklahoma 25,182 35 Salt Lake 21,903

Source: Urban Mobility Report, 2012

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

Travel Time Index, 1982 to 2011

Peer Region Average St. Louis Urban Area

Ratio

Map 10: Congestion AM Peak in the St. Louis Region

Figure 15: Travel Time Index, 1982 to 2011

| 27Connected2045

StrategiesStrategy: Employ the Congestion Management Process

(CMP) to identify projects and transportation system management strategies that reduce travel delays.

Strategy: Promote efforts that encourage transportation alternatives to single-occupancy vehicle travel.

Strategy: Continue to invest in the regional ITS system.

Strategy: Ensure proper consideration of appropriate congestion mitigation strategies in the project development and implementation process.

Strategy: Utilize the CMP Congestion Management Committee (CMC) to facilitate inter-jurisdictional coordination of transportation system operations.

DIV

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Annual Hours of Delay

Total vehicle hours of delay due to congestion Þ 20

12 49,000 Hours

Planning Time Index

The total time a traveler should plan for to ensure on-time arrival to their destination. In St. Louis the PTI of 1.44 means that for a 20-minute trip, 28 minutes should be planned.

Þ 2012 1.44


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2011

Dol

lars

Figure x: Annual Congestion Costs per Auto Commuter (2011 Dollars), 1982 to 2011

Peer Region Average St. Louis Urban Area

Source: Urban Mobility Report, 2012, Texas Transportation Institute

Figure 16: Annual Congestion Costs per Auto Commuter,

(2011 dollars), 1982 to 2011


To grow the metropolitan economy, economic development and transportation planning strategies need to support the growth of wealth producing jobs. Quality jobs (those paying over $40,000 per year) allow residents to save and to return money to the economy through purchases of goods and services.

Quality jobs are located throughout the St. Louis region. The highest concentrations of quality jobs are in the central corridor and parts of St. Louis County, and there are high concentrations of quality jobs in every county of the region.

When compared with peer regions, the majority of jobs in St. Louis are accessible within a reasonable amount of travel time by automobile but far less accessible for people who live in the outer portions of the region and for those who do not have access to a vehicle. Also, St.Louis ranks low among peer regions for job access by transit. While auto commuters in the city of St. Louis and St. Louis County can reach over 80 percent of jobs in the region within 45 minutes, far fewer jobs are accessible in this commute time for those who live in the suburban and rural parts of the region. Transportation expenditures that connect citizens, via multiple modes of transportation, to good quality employment opportunities are a sound investment in the future prosperity of the St. Louis region.

Support Quality Job DevelopmentSupport the growth of wealth producing jobs that allow residents to save and return money to the economy.

Map 11: Quality Jobs in the St. Louis Region

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HIGHER

LOWER

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JOB ACCESS BY TRANSIT

Share of metropolitan jobs the typi-cal working-age resident can reach via transit within 90 minutes, 2010

1 Salt Lake City 58.92 Milwaukee 48.63 Denver 47.54 Portland 39.95 Austin 39.06 San Antonio 37.07 Washington D.C. 36.68 New York 36.69 San Francisco 34.8

10 Columbus 34.111 Seattle 33.412 Indianapolis 33.113 Louisville 32.7

Average 30.614 Boston 30.215 Baltimore 30.216 Minneapolis 29.717 Charlotte 29.718 Houston 29.619 Cleveland 29.520 San Diego 29.121 Cincinnati 27.822 Phoenix 27.423 Nashville 27.424 Memphis 26.225 Los Angeles 25.626 St. Louis 24.127 Philadelphia 24.028 Chicago 23.929 Pittsburgh 23.030 Oklahoma City 22.731 Detroit 21.932 Atlanta 21.733 Dallas 19.034 Kansas City 18.335 Miami 16.2

Source: Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings, 2011

Table 4: Employment by Sector (in thousands), St. Louis MSA, 1990-2014 Sector 1990 2014 Percent Change

Mining, Logging, and Construction 51.1 61.3 20.0

Manufacturing 206.1 112.8 -45.3

Retail Trade 142.1 137.5 -3.2

Transportation and Utilities 48.2 46.8 -2.9

Information 29.0 29.3 1.0

Financial Activities 70.4 89.1 26.5

Professional and Business Services 147.8 204.7 38.5

Leisure and Hospitality 105.3 146.1 38.8

Other Services 49.6 46.1 -7.1

Government 140.1 158.9 13.4

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

| 29Connected2045

StrategiesStrategy: Prioritize multi-modal transportation and land-use

investments that increase access to quality job clusters, education and job training in the region.

Strategy: Coordinate with local development officials and implementation partners in the private sector to ensure the adequacy of transportation access to sites where quality jobs exist or where new job growth is anticipated.

Strategy: Research and support initiatives and policies that stimulate job training and quality job creation in low-income and minority communities.

Strategy: Promote programs and projects that address the spatial mismatch between jobs and workforce housing.

Strategy: Support transit programs that expand reverse commute possibilities and improve access to job centers.

Strategy: Improve access to opportunities by considering walking, biking and public transit access to education and job centers.

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Access to Quality Jobs

Under development Ý


Map 12: Zero Vehicle Households in the St. Louis Region


Freight volumes are expected to increase by 60 percent over the next 25 years in the United States. In an effort to capitalize on this growth, EWG, MoDOT, IDOT and members of the freight community in the St. Louis region recently completed an evaluation of the regional freight system to determine how to better leverage the region’s assets. The St. Louis Regional Freight study documents key regional, national and global trendsthatwillinfluencefreightmovement.Italsoanalyzes the ability of the region’s infrastructure to support freight growth by:• Documenting areas where travel reliability

andtrafficbottlenecksareaproblem

• Locating opportunities for intermodal connections

• Identifying23specificgeographicareasinthe region that are key to the freight industry in St. Louis. These freight emphasis areas support about 230,000 jobs, sustain about one-quarter of regional economic activity ($55.5 billion annually) and utilize 160 million square feet of industrial and distribution space.

The St. Louis region is well positioned to capture some of the expected growth in nationwide freight movement for all modes, given the region’s centrallocation,rivers,lowtrafficcongestionand lack of tolling. Future growth will depend on coordinating public and private freight decision making and investments, ensuring reliable truck travel times, strengthening multi-modal connections to the 23 key freight site areas and ensuring the region’s workforce can access freight employment opportunities.

Map 13: St. Louis Regional Freight Network

Strengthen Intermodal ConnectionsSupport freight movement and connections that are critical to the movement of people and goods.

HIGHER

LOWER

AVERAGE

FREIGHT TONNAGETons in thousands, 2011

1 Houston 1,092,514 2 Los Angeles 811,308 3 New York 762,768 4 Chicago 731,275 5 San Francisco 435,636 6 Dallas 409,069 7 Philadelphia 379,977 8 Detroit 346,700 9 St. Louis 315,934 10 Atlanta 314,645 11 Minneapolis 304,299 12 Seattle 297,763

Average 277,566 13 Miami 231,904 14 Phoenix 221,959 15 Boston 213,552 16 Denver 196,778 17 Indianapolis 184,508 18 Washington 178,330 19 Portland 177,960 20 Pittsburgh 174,409 21 Cleveland 167,097 22 Baltimore 164,394 23 Kansas City 159,199 24 San Antonio 156,883 25 Columbus 149,837 26 Nashville 149,447 27 Salt Lake City 147,020 28 Cincinnati 144,673 29 Austin 113,451 30 Charlotte 112,802 31 Milwaukee 101,345 32 Oklahoma 97,832 33 Memphis 91,042 34 San Diego 90,828 35 Louisville 87,677

Source: Federal Highway Administration, Freight Analysis

Framework

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Multiple modes & mail

Pipeline

Other and unknown

Freight Moving Through St. Louis Region by Mode, 2007

58%

14.9%

7.1%

4.8%

13.6%

1.1%

Figure 17: Freight Moving Through

St. Louis Region by Mode, 2007

| 31Connected2045

StrategiesStrategy: Initiate a regional rail network study to better fine needed

operational and system infrasctructure improvements.

Strategy: Evaluate traveler information technology prototypes, such as real-time messages on incidents, congestion, and travel time to improve freight system reliability.

Strategy: Partner with St. Louis Gateway, the St. Louis regional freight district to coordinate freight planning with the private sector and market the region as a national and international freight hub.

Strategy: Enhance the St. Louis Region’s air service to support key export industries and its connections to all modes of the freight transportation network.

Strategy: Coordinate with stakeholders from the freight sector to identify workforce challenges and infrastructure priorities.

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TonnageTotal tons of freight goods moved into, within and out of the region Ý 20

12 132,192 Tons

Truck Congestion Cost

Value of travel delay (estimated at $86.81 per hour of truck time) and excess diesel consumption estimated using state average cost per gallon

Þ 2012 $300,000

Annual Hours of Truck Delay

Total truck hours of delay due to congestion Þ 20

12 4,028,000Hours


Freight Study Highlights:The St. Louis Regional Freight Study identifies the following as some of the assets and opportunities upon which the region can build its intermodal freight network:

• Centrally located with connections to major interstates

• Well-maintained roads

• Relatively low fuel prices

• New interstate openings which have increased the efficiency of the system

• Modest congestion with nominal delays during off-peak hours

• New Mississippi River Bridge and improvements to the Poplar Street Bridge

• Strong east-west connections but weak north-south connections

• Six Class I railroads connect in St. Louis

• Development of high-speed rail between St. Louis and Chicago


Thetransportationsystemcanhavesignificantnegative effects on the air quality and natural resources of the region. Great strides have been made in alleviating these effects through federal, state and local initiatives that have led to cleaner burning fuels, consideration of environmental justice communities and assessment of environmental impacts in the planning process. Early and ongoing consultation with natural resource agencies from planning and construction to operations andmaintenancehasresultedintheefficientdelivery of projects while protecting and enhancing the region’s environmental priorities. Nevertheless, the St. Louis region faces significantchallengesintermsofairquality—though there has been a gradual downward trend in ozone level exceedances over recent years, St. Louis still ranks poorly among peer regions in that regard.

It is also important that the region consider energy use and the transportation system’s contribution to regional greenhouse gas emissions. The 2014 National Climate Assessmentidentifiedseveralclimate-relatedimpacts on transportation systems, such as:

•Stress on pavement and expansion joints due to extreme heat

•Temporary inundation due to heavy precipitation

•Bridge scour resulting from faster streamflowfollowingheavyrain

Several adaptation measures have been identified,includingenhancingthetreecanopyto reduce the urban heat island effect and using green infrastructure to reduce the runoff from heavy precipitation events.

Protect Air Quality and Environmental AssetsEncourage investments that recognize the linkages between the social, economic, and natural fabric of the region.

Map 14: Project Level Ecological Significance

HIGHER

LOWER

AVERAGE

AIR QUALITYNumber of days air quality index

exceeded 100 for ozone, 2011-2013 average

1 Los Angeles 72.32 Dallas 35.33 Houston 29.04 St. Louis 26.35 Denver 21.36 Atlanta 21.37 Phoenix 21.08 New York 19.39 Cincinnati 19.0

10 Kansas City 18.011 Oklahoma City 17.012 Baltimore 15.713 Washington D.C. 15.714 Chicago 15.315 Louisville 15.0

Average 14.616 Philadelphia 14.317 Memphis 14.018 Cleveland 13.719 Pittsburgh 13.320 Nashville 11.721 Detroit 11.322 Charlotte 9.723 Indianapolis 9.724 San Antonio 9.325 Columbus 9.026 Milwaukee 9.027 San Diego 9.028 Salt Lake City 7.329 Austin 4.030 Boston 3.731 San Francisco 2.732 Minneapolis 1.733 Miami 1.334 Seattle 0.735 Portland 0.3

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

0

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Sources: Air Quality Index, United States Environmental Protection Agency and East-West Gateway

Average Number of Days of Ozone Exceedances per year, St. Louis Region, 2000 to 2013

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Figure 18: Average Number of Days of

Ozone Exceedances per Year, St. Louis Region,

2000 to 2013

| 33Connected2045

StrategiesStrategy: Use the Regional Ecological Framework to prioritize the

protection of environmentally sensitive areas, develop mitigation strategies to protect critical areas and direct mitigation funds towards areas of greatest restoration potential through the continued partnership with regulatory and resource agencies.

Strategy: Advance the Blue, Gray, Green Infrastructure Initiative identified in OneSTL and develop land cover classification data set for the urban locations in the region to inform transportation and infrastructure planning, water quality planning, trail planning, and greenspace enhancement.

Strategy: Coordinate the air quality and transportation planning activities in the region through the partnerships established on the Air Quality Advisory Committee and advance the committee as a forum for the exchange of information and the facilitation of the resolution of interstate air quality issues.

Strategy: Build on greenhouse gas inventory research to include more accurate sources of information, include point and non-point sources, and expand the capacity of partners to participate in region-wide and corridor specific inventories.

Strategy: Support efforts that reduce energy use such as the Clean Cities program in its pursuit to reduce petroleum consumption through the expansion of alternative fuel infrastructure, increased fuel economy in vehicles and idle reduction measures.

Strategy: Analyze potential impacts of extreme weather and other climate-related stressors on transportation system and the economy.

AIR

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Criteria Pollutant Emission Reductions

Daily kilograms of on-road, mobile source criteria air pollutants (HC, Nox,PM2.5) reduced by the latest annual program of CMAQ projects.

Ý

2015

-201

6 248.64 kg/day

Conservation and Environ-mental SignificanceScore

Number of funded projects that impact ecologicallysignificantorconservation opportunity areas within a ¼ mile buffer.

Þ 2015 14

projects


10%

10%

20%

28%

32%

Total U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

by Economic Sector in 2012

Agriculture

Commercial & Residential

Industry

Transportation

Electricity

Figure 19: Total U.S. Greehouse Gas Emissions by

Economic Sector in 2012


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| 35Connected2045

Chapter 3: Investment Plan

Photo courtesy of Missouri Department of Transportation

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Connected2045 Investment ThemesThe investment plan of Connected2045, which was developed through technical evaluation as well aspublicandstakeholderinput,reflectsthe10Guiding Principles that comprise the centerpiece of thedocument.Morespecifically,Connected2045’s investment priorities should be viewed thematically, rather than as a loose assortment of transportation projects without a unifying structure.

The projects in Connected2045 preserve and maintain the transportation system. By prioritizing projects that keep the transportation system in good repair over those that expand it, the plan recognizes the challenges posed by aging infrastructure and diminished transportation funding.

The projects in Connected2045 support the regional economy. State, regional, and local leaders agree that transportation investment should spur economic growth, create jobs, and improve access to opportunity. By giving priority to projects that improve the regional freight network, connect to employment centers, and support public transportation the plan will assist helping the region succeed in the economy of the 21st century.

The projects in Connected2045 increase safety and security. Pedestrian, bicyclist, and motorist safetyhasbeenidentifiedasaprioritybythefederalgovernment, Illinois and Missouri, stakeholders and the public. The investment plan takes into account high accident corridors and intersections, and the plan includes numerous safety strategies.

All projects using federal transportation funds must firstbeidentifiedinConnected2045’s investment plan, or otherwise be consistent with the Plan’s principles. The transportation investment plan establishes priorities for major state highway and regional transit system projects through the Plan’shorizonyear.Assuch,theplanlistsspecificprojects recommended for federal funding through 2045. Although the listing only incorporates state Departments of Transportation (DOT) and Metro

projects, local agency projects also are subject to the RTP’s purview. Decisions on local projects competing for federal funds are made through the annual Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) selection process, which evaluates projects according to the Plan’s principles.

By federal law both the RTP investment plan and theannualTIPmustbefiscallyconstrained—thismeans that reasonably anticipated revenues must besufficienttocoverallprojectcosts,includingthecosts of maintaining and operating the transportation system.Applyingthefinancialconstraintensuresthat the investment plan is more than merely a project wish list and provides some level of certainty concerning the nature and timing of investments. Projects considered for inclusion in the RTP are labeled as priority or illustrative—priority projects are those that are affordable within the region’s anticipated resources, whereas illustrative projects arebeyondtheregion’sfinancialability.Ifadditionalfunding becomes available, however, illustrative projects may advance to the priority list.

Transportation Improvement ProgramThe FY 2015-2018 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) as approved by the East-West Gateway Council of Governments Board of Directors in July 2014 contains 688 projects at a total cost of approximately $1.8 billion. This TIP commits nearly 40% of the program (representing nearly 725.7 million) to preserve the existing infrastructure (resurfacing/reconstructing roads, repairing/replacing bridges, and replacing other aging transportation facilities). Approximately 6 percent ($114.8 million) of the program is allocated to adding capacity in the form of new roads, new bridges, and new through lanes on existing roads. Projects to improve safety and/or operations of the region’s transportation systems and facilities account for almost 12 percent of the total program ($221.8 million).

Funding transit, including MetroLink light rail, MetroBus, Call-A-Ride, equipment, facilities, and service, represents nearly 31 percent of the total program ($575.2 million). The Over seven percent of the program (135 million) is for payments to retire debt from bonds, local public agencies or state DOTs for costshare projects. Other projects such as bicycle and pedestrian programs and facilities and streetscape improvements, account for nearly 3 percent of the total program ($62.5 million).

Several major projects were included in the FY 2015-2018 TIP. The following list includes major projects (over $20 million).

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| 37Connected2045

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Table 5: Major Projects

Project SponsorTotal

(in millions)Bus and paratransit preventive maintenance program Metro $60.0Mo 47 - Replace bridge over Missouri River MoDOT $55.0Martin Luther King Jr. Bridge - Rehabilitate ramps to I-55/64 IDOT $39.2Loop Trolley - Delmar Avenue and Debaliviere Avenue Loop Trolley TDD $44.0Eastbound I-64 - Poplar Street Bridge - Bridge and ramp improvments - Add lane from 6th ramp to SB IL 3 MoDOT $34.9

I-44 pavement and bridge improvements - Murdoch Avenue to Hampton Avenue MoDOT $34.4

I-255 at Davis Street Ferry Road - New interchange Dupo $27.7Martin Luther King Jr. Bridge - Construct ramps to southbound I-55/64/ IL 3 IDOT $27.0

Payment to MoDOT for eastbound I-64 - Poplar Street Bridge lane addition IDOT $25.4

I-70 resurfacing and bridge repairs- 2.5 miles east of I-55/270 to 0.1 Mi west of Prairie Rd IDOT $25.0

I-70 at 5th St. and Fairgrounds Rd. - Diverging diamond interchange; access improvements to Fairgrounds St. Charles County $16.6

GARVEE bond payback for I-64 reconstruction (Spoede to Kingshighway) MoDOT $54.0GARVEE bond payback for the New Mississippi River Bridge MoDOT $33.6

Strengthen

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Projects Legend

Projects Considered for Plan Inclusion50 projects, based on state DOT and Metro plans and costing more than $9 billion, were considered in developing the investment plan. Most projects proposed emerged as preferred alternatives from corridor and other planning studies. Also considered were11corridorsforwhichnoprojectsareidentifiedbut further study is warranted to develop projects that address existing or emerging transportation needs. Future long-range plans may consider projectsidentifiedduringthosecorridorstudies.

Based on a technical evaluation of the projects, andafterapplyingthefiscalconstraint,28priorityprojects, costing nearly $4 billion, were selected for the investment plan and allocated to one of three implementation periods: 2016-2025, 2026-2035, or 2036-2045. (Those project costs do not include the $27 billion required over the next 29 years simply to maintain existing transportation assets and operations.)

Projectsthatdidnotfitwithintheregion’sfinancialresources were placed in the illustrative list, which was divided into Tier I and II categories. Tier I designatesthoseprojectsthatshouldadvancefirstinto the priority list if additional funding becomes available.

Each project in the investment plan is listed with icons representing three guiding principles on which it scored highly in the evaluation process; however it should be noted that all highly-ranked projects scored well on preservation, safety, and strengthening intermodal connections, major themes of Connected2045.


Financial Capacity AnalysisThere is great uncertainty about the future of transportation funding. Motor fuel tax revenue, whichhasbeenthefinancialbackboneoffederaland state transportation programs, is failing to keep up with growing needs. Because of the lack of new orenhancedfinancialresources,itisbecomingachallenge, at all levels of government, simply to maintain existing transportation systems. While discussions have begun at the federal and state levels about increasing transportation resources, little has been accomplished. Given this uncertainty, Council staff has taken a conservative approach in forecasting future revenues.

Council staff forecasts future revenues to establish thefiscalconstraintfortheRTP.Thefiscalconstraintreflectstheregion’sfinancialcapacitytomaintain,operate, and enhance the region’s transportation network over the plan period. Projects that can be fundedwithinanticipatedrevenuesareidentifiedasInvestment Priorities; projects that cannot be funded areidentifiedasIllustrativeProjects.

ForpurposesoftheRTP,thefinancialcapacityanalysis and the resulting investment plan focus on the state highway and regional transit systems. BothMoDOTandMetroprovidedbaselinefinancialforecaststhatCouncilstaffmodifiedforRTPuse.The forecast for IDOT revenues was based on its FY 2014program.Inestablishingthefiscalconstraint,it was assumed that federal revenues would increase modestly and that capital costs would inflatebythreepercentannually.Basedontheseassumptions, revenues available to the region from the IDOT, Metro and MoDOT programs exceed $31 billion through 2045, with approximately 87 percent of that amount being used for road and bridge rehabilitation or reconstruction, transit vehicle and facility replacement and rehabilitation, state highway and regional transit system operations, and safety projects.

Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) Through 2045, IDOT will have an estimated $5.5 billion in revenue available for transportation projects in the St. Louis region. More than $4.1 billion of that amount will be needed to rehabilitate, reconstruct and upgrade existing facilities, leaving a balance of less than $1.4 billion for major projects. That $1.4 billion falls short of the $4.5 billion needed to fund all eight projects submitted by IDOT for plan inclusion.

Table 6: IDOT Financial Capacity: 2016-2045 (year of expenditure dollars, millions)

Total Revenue $5,525Preservation/Operations Cost $4,144Balance for Major Projects $1,381Major Project Costs $4,508Total Balance ($3,127)

Metro Transit SystemTwo important assumptions were made in developingthefinancialforecastforMetro’ssystem:first,St.LouisCountywouldplacenorestrictionsof Metro’s use of Proposition A funds; second, Metro could use those funds for either capital or operating needs. Without those assumptions, Metro would have no guarantee that it could continue to financeitsoperationsbeyondtheshorttermwithoutdelaying capital improvements or reducing services. With those assumptions, Metro can operate for the next decade without facing capital or operating shortfalls.

Thefinancialprojection,however,suggeststhatby the middle of next decade Metro will begin experiencingbothcapitalandoperatingdeficits,unless the system receives additional revenue. Assuming no additional revenue, Metro will have an estimated $17.9 billion in capital and operating funds through 2045. Over that same period, it would

require $19.1 billion to keep its vehicles and capital facilities in good condition and maintain existing service levels. Thus, over the long term, the funds availabletoMetroarenotsufficientfortheagencyto adequately maintain its current system. Because of this, there are no major transit capital projects listed among the priority investments. For Metro to maintain operations and pursue rail and bus expansion plans, a revenue increase equivalent to another ½ cent sales tax in the city of St. Louis and County will be required.

Table 7: Metro Financial Capacity: 2016-2045 (year of expenditure dollars, millions)

Maintaining Existing SystemCapital Revenue $3,013Operating Revenue $14,838Total Revenue $17,851Capital Expenses $3,330Operating Expenses $15,760Total Expenses $19,090Balance ($1,239)

Missouri Department of Transportation (MoDOT)Of the three major transportation agencies, MoDOT facestheworstfinancialcircumstances.ByFY2017MoDOT will lack the resources needed to match all the federal transportation funds available to the state. This will reduce the state construction program to $325 million a year, a fraction of historic funding levelsandinsufficienttomaintainthestatehighwaysystem. In response to the declining construction program, the Missouri Highway and Transportation Commission adopted the Missouri 325 System plan, which will focus funding on keeping the state 8,000 mile primary system in its current condition, while performing only routine maintenance on the state’s 26,000 mile supplementary system.

| 39Connected2045

InpreparingtheMoDOTfinancialprojection,Councilstaffassumedthatthestatewouldhavesufficientrevenue to match all federal funds. Accomplishing this will require the Missouri General Assembly to raise new transportation revenues by an amount equivalent to a four cent motor fuel tax increase. In the absence of such an increase, the MoDOT program will be reduced to a preservation-only mode.

Under the assumption of new revenue to match federal funds, MoDOT will have $7.7 billion for projects in the St. Louis region through 2045. More than $5.1 billion of that amount will be dedicated to system preservation, operations, safety projects, and the ADA transition program. Another $2.5 billion would be available for major projects. The 35 projects proposed by MoDOT for inclusion in the RTP total $3.6 billion. So, even with additional revenue, the funds available through the plan period only cover about 70 percent of the MoDOT project costs.

Table 8: MoDOT Financial Capacity: 2016-2045 (year of expenditure dollars, millions)

Total Revenue $7,721Preservation/Operations Cost $5,167Balance for Major Projects $2,554Major Project Costs $3,643Total Balance ($1,089)


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Bicycle and Pedestrian ProjectsBicycle and pedestrian projects and planning are funded annually through the TIP selection process. However, to provide a more complete picture of the St. Louis regional transportation system, Connected2045 includes a list of major upcoming bicycle and pedestrian projects and plans in the region. It should be noted that not all of these projectsandplanshavefundingidentified,norisinclusion in Connected2045 a funding commitment on the part of EWG. The following table is intended for informational purposes and to acknowledge the role that investments in bicycle and pedestrian transportation can play in the St. Louis region.

Transportation Investment PlanThe accompanying tables list the projects comprising the priority investment plan for the region. The firstseriesoftableslistthepriorityprojectsbytime period. The tables following list the illustrative projects, which will be drawn into the priority plan if additional revenues become available, and the proposed corridor studies. In total, the plan proposes spending $31 billion over the 29 year planning horizon, with 87 percent of that cost being allocated to preservation and operations.

Table 9: Future Regional Bicycle Projects

14th Street Connection and Trestle St. Louis CityMissouri River bicycle/pedestrian bridge St. Charles/St. LouisBike Share St. Louis/St. Louis City

Great Rivers Greenway River Ring St. Charles/St. Louis/St. Louis City

Metro East Parks and Recreation District priority trails Madison/St. ClairFuture phases of Bike St. Louis St. Louis/St. Louis CityEWG Blue-Green-Gray Infrastructure plan RegionwideUpdate to 2005 EWG Bicycling and Walking Transportation Plan Regionwide

| 41Connected2045

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Table 10: Investment Priorities Projects funded within the region’s fiscal constraint (year of expenditure dollars, millions)

Period: 2016-2025 Project/Corridor Description County Location Cost (YOE) Principles

Preservation/Operations Maintenance/rehabilitation/operational improvements Multicounty Regionwide $2,337

Transit Operations Maintain existing transit system Multicounty St. Louis/St. Louis City/ St. Clair $4,370

IL 3 (Partial) Relocate, construct 4-lane roadway St. Clair/Madison Cahokia to Venice $255

I-270 Replace bridge Madison Mississippi River Bridge $215

I-44 Rehabilitate pavement and bridges; improve interchanges St. Louis City I-55 to River Des Peres $185

I-64 Replace bridge St. Louis City Vanderventer bridge $39

I-64 Revise interchange St. Louis City Grand/Market interchange $20

I-270 Improve interstate and interchange St. Louis I-170 to Lindbergh $93

I-270 Improve interstate, interchanges, and outer roads St. Louis Old Halls Ferry to Hanley/

Graham $289

I-70 (Partial) Rehabilitate pavement, improve interchanges, add lanes St. Charles MO 94 to MO 370 $30

David Hoekel Parkway Phases 1 and 2 Construct new road St. Charles Peine Rd. to MO P; Interstate Dr. to Meyer Rd. $54

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Table 10 (Continued): Investment Priorities Projects funded within the region’s fiscal constraint (year of expenditure dollars, millions)

Period: 2026-2035Project/Corridor Description County Location Cost (YOE) Principles


Transit Operations Maintain existing transit system Multicounty St. Louis/St. Louis City/St. Clair $5,749

IL 3 (Partial) Relocate, construct 4-lane roadway St. Clair/Madison Cahokia to Venice $371

I-270 (Partial) Improve interstate and interchanges Madison IL 111 to Mississippi River $80

I-70 (Partial) Rehabilitate pavement, improve interchanges, add lanes St. Charles MO 94 to MO 370 $100

I-44 Improve corridor, including new bridges over the Meramec River St. Louis Geyer to MO 141 $222

MO H Upgrade to parkway St. Louis City Hall to I-270 $38

I-270 Improve interstate and interchanges St. Louis McDonnell to MO 370 $86

I-64 Revise interchange; upgrade 22nd St. to parkway St. Louis City 16th to Jefferson (22nd) $38

I-170 Improve interchange St. Louis MO D interchange $38

I-64 Construct Split Final St. Louis City Sixth Street ramp $47

I-270 Improve interchange St. Louis MO 367 interchange $107

I-270Rehabilitate pavement and bridges; add capacity, modify interchanges and outer roads

St. Louis H to Lilac $163

I-170 Improve interchanges St. Louis Scudder to Airport Rd. $42

US 67 Raise and relocate roadway St. Charles Mississippi River $3

I-64 Add capacity St. Charles MO K to I-70 $54

David Hoekel Parkway Phases 3 and 4 Construct new road St. Charles Peine Rd. to Meyer Rd. $27

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Period: 2036-2045 Project/Corridor Description County Location Cost (YOE) Principles


Transit Operations Maintain existing transit system Multicounty St. Louis/St. Louis City/ St. Clair $7,732

I-270 (Partial) Improve interstate and interchanges Madison IL 111 to Mississippi River $238

Alton-Godfrey Connector Construct new road Madison $223

I-270 Improve interchange St. Louis Dorsett to MO 370 $211

I-270 Improve corridor, add capacity St. Louis County MO 100 to MO 30 $203

I-70 Improve interchange St. Louis Route U $6

I-44 Improve interchange St. Louis/St. Louis City Murdoch to Shrewsbury $140

I-55Rehabilitate pavement and bridges, add capacity, improve interchanges

Jefferson MO Z to US 67 $278

I-270 Revise interchange ramps St. Louis MO D interchange $30

I-55 Construct new bridges over River Des Peres St. Louis City Carondelet to Germania $47

David Hoekel Parkway Phase 5 Construct new road St. Charles Jackson Rd to Interstate Dr.

Strengthen

Inter

modal

Connectio

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Support a Dive

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nomy

with a

Reliab

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Promote Safe

ty

and Sec

urity

Support Quali

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Job Dev

elopmen

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Provide M

ore

Transp

ortaion Choice

s

Support Neig

hborhoods

and Communitie

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Support Public

Transp

ortatio

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Foster a

Vibrant

Downtown and Cen

tral C

ore

Protect A

ir Quali

ty an

d

Environmen

tal Ass

ets

Preserv

e and M

aintai

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the Exis

ting Sys

tem



Illustrative Tier IProject/Corridor Description County Location Cost (YOE)Bus Rapid Transit West Florissant St. Louis/St. Louis City Downtown to Natural Bridge $59Bus Rapid Transit I-64 St. Louis/St. Louis City DowntowntoChesterfield $56MetroLink extension Northside-Southside phases I & II St. Louis/St. Louis City Northside/Southside $2,270StL Streetcar Streetcar St. Louis City CWE to Downtown $410I-70 Connector Construct new road St. Clair/Madison e/o IL 3 to I-70 $1,523I-55/70 Add lanes Madison I-255 to I-270 $508MO 47 Improve corridor Franklin Washington to I-44 $183I-70 Add capacity and improve interchanges St. Charles I-64 to MO T/W $154I-270 Add lanes St. Louis MO 100 to I-64 $63MO 100 Realign; construct interchange Franklin e/o Gray Summit $201I-64 Construct new interchange and/or overpasses St. Louis Baxter interchange $87

Illustrative Tier IIProject/Corridor Description County Location Cost (YOE)MetroLink extension Daniel Boone St. Louis Clayton to Westport $1,059MetroLink extension MetroNorth St. Louis N Hanley to Florissant $757MetroLink extension MetroSouth St. Louis/St. Louis City Shrewsbury to Butler Hill $1,210Lebanon Bypass Construct new road St. Clair IL 4 to US 50 $81Gateway Connector Construct new road Madison/St. Clair/Monroe US 40 to I-255 $1,015

US 61 eliminate at-grade crossings, construct new interchanges and connecting outer roads St. Charles I-64 to Lincoln Co. $173

I-64 Improve interchange St. Louis Long Rd. interchange $87

MO 21 Improve corridor Jefferson MO B to MO N & H $102

MO 94 Add capacity St. Charles I-70 to MO 364 $26US 50 Upgrade roadway Franklin Progress Parkway to I-44 $41Route 364 Provide access St. Charles Gutermuth Rd. $14

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Recommended Corridor StudiesProject/Corridor Description County Location Cost (YOE)I-70 Corridor Study St. Louis City/St. Louis/St. Charles Broadway to I-64I-44 Interchange study St. Louis City I-55MO 340 Corridor Study St. Louis MO 100 to I-64I-70 Corridor and interchange study St. Louis Natural Bridge to Hanley RdMO 79 Corridor Study St. Charles Salt River to Lincoln Co.MO 94 Corridor Study St. Charles Route 364 to Route DMO N Corridor Study St. Charles I-64 to South Point Prairie Road

Route 364 Corridor study St. Charles Heritage Crossing to Mid Rivers Mall Drive

Route 141 Corridor Study Jefferson County line to Astra WayUS 67 Corridor study Jefferson Route 61 to Route VI-44 Corridor Study Franklin MO 100 to Crawford County Line

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Under development ...

Chapter 4: Air Quality

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The conformity process is intended to ensure that the programs and activities proposed in long-range transportation plans conform to the purpose of the State Implementation Plans for Air Quality. As stated in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), this means “…conformity to the (implementation) plan’s purpose of eliminating or reducing the severity and number of violations of the national ambient air quality standards and achieving expeditious attainment of such standards…” The provisions oftheCAAAinrelationtoconformityareamplifiedinthe U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Final Rule, CFR Part 93, as amended January 2008, March 2010 and March 2012. New timelines and procedures were set out in SAFETEA-LU.

Air Quality Conformity ProcessThe U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses the term attainment area to describe those areas where air quality meets health standards for particular air borne pollutants. In 2002, the St. Louis region attained the one-hour ozone standard, based on three years of air quality monitoring data for the 2000-2002 time period. The redesignation request and Maintenance Plans, prepared by the Missouri Department of Natural Resources (MoDNR) and the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IEPA), were approved by EPA on May 12, 2003. As a result, the entire eight-county St. Louis region is nowclassifiedasamaintenanceareafortheone-hour ozone standard. However, as of June 15, 2004, the St. Louis area, as well as other metropolitan areas around the nation, was re-designated by EPA as a non-attainment area for the new more restrictive eight-hour ozone standard and was classifiedasamoderatenon-attainment area. The eight-hour non-attainment area included Franklin, Jefferson, St. Charles and St. Louis counties and the city of St. Louis in Missouri and Jersey, Madison, Monroe and St. Clair counties in Illinois. In June 2012, EPA redesignated the Illinois counties as being in attainment of the 1997 eight-hour ozone standard. In February 2015, EPA redesignated the

Missouri counties as being in attainment of the 1997 eight-hour ozone standard. In July 2012, the eight-county St. Louis area was designated by EPA as a “marginal” non-attainment area for the 2008 eight-hour ozone standard. In April 2005, USEPA designated the entire eight-county St. Louis region as beinginnon-attainmentofthefineparticlematerial(PM2.5) standard, as well as other metropolitan areas throughout the nation. The PM2.5 non-attainment area includes: Franklin, Jefferson, St. Charles and St. Louis counties and the city of St. Louis in Missouri; and Madison, Monroe and St. Clair counties in Illinois. Baldwin Township in Randolph County, Illinois is also part of the PM2.5 non-attainment area. Under provisions of the CAAA, East-West Gateway, as the Metropolitan Planning Organization for the region, is the agency responsible for making the determinationofconformity.Theconformityfindingrelates to those pollutants produced by automobiles and other road transportation, generally described as mobile source emissions. The pollutants of concern inthisregionareozoneandfineparticles.Ozoneis not, however, produced directly by automobiles. Ozone is formed when volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions from cars and industry mix with oxygen in the lower atmosphere in the presence of strong sunshine (temperatures of 85°F or higher). Fine particles are less than 1/30 the width of a human hair. The PM2.5 mobile source components of interest are direct PM2.5 from vehicle exhaust, brake wear and tire wear and NOx (as a precursor to PM2.5 formation). Benchmarks against which progress is measured in meeting national goals for cleaner and healthier air are set out in the State Implementation Plans (SIPs). Preparation of SIPs is the responsibility of each state. The present Determination of Conformity for the Missouri part of the region is made in relation to Early Progress Plan for the Missouri Portion of the St. Louis Nonattainment Area for 2008 8-Hour Ground Level Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (MO Early Progress Plan) EPA found the 2008 motor vehicle emissions budgets in the MO Early Progress Plan to be adequate for Conformity

purposes (October 28, 2013). The Determination of Conformity for ozone for the Illinois part of the region is made in relation to the motor vehicle emission budgets, contained in the Maintenance Plan for the Metro-East St. Louis Ozone Nonattainment Area for the 1997 8-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard Attainment Demonstration Plan (IL Maintenance Plan). The IL Maintenance Plan was approved EPA on June 12, 2012.

The primary purpose of the conformity process is to ensure that predicted future mobile emissions resulting from planned and programmed Missouri transportation projects (the Action scenario) fall below the 2015 VOC and NOx emission budget levels set out in the MO Early Progress Plan maintenance plans for both VOC and NOx. The primary purpose of the conformity process is to ensure that predicted future mobile emissions resulting from planned and programmed Illinois transportation projects (the Action scenario) fall below the 2008 and 2025 emission budget levels set out in the maintenance plans for both VOC and NOx.

The State of Missouri Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan for the Missouri Portion of the St. Louis Non-Attainment Area for the 1997 Annual Fine Particulate National Ambient Air Quality Standard (MO PM2.5 Maintenance Plan) has been submitted to EPA in August 2011. Missouri has developed a technical supplement for this plan. Illinois is in the process of completing its annual PM2.5 SIP for submittal to EPA. The principal step is to demonstrate, for the selected analysis years, that the predicted future mobile emissions resulting from planned and programmed transportation projects (Action scenario) is less than the combined 2002 baseline emissions inventories developed by Missouri and Illinois for the entire PM2.5 non-attainment area. Since the St. Louis area is in nonattainment of the annual PM2.5 standard, annual emissions are to be used.

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Air Quality Conformity DeterminationOZONEFederal and state regulations require that projects included in the Connected 2045 must pass the following emissions test for each of four analysis years, 2015, 2025, 2035 and 2045

• Emissions of VOC for the Missouri counties resulting from the plan’s 2015, 2015, 2035 and 2045 implementation will be less than the 2015 budget in the MO Early Progress Plan i.e. 32.70 tons per day. Emissions of VOC for the Illinois counties resulting from the plan’s 2015 implementation will be less than the 2008 budget in the IL Maintenance Plan, i.e. 17.27 tons per day. Emissions of VOC for the Illinois counties resulting from the plan’s 2025, 2035 and 2045 will be less than the 2025 budget in the IL Maintenance Plan, i.e. 5.68 tons per day. (See Table 5-1).

• Emissions of NOx for the Missouri counties resulting from the plan’s 2015, 2025, 2035 and 2045 implementation will be less than the 2015 budgets in the MO Early Progress Plan i.e. 76.70 tons per day in Missouri. Emissions of NOx for the Illinois counties resulting from the plan’s 2025, 2035, and 2045 implementation will be less than the 2025 budgets in IL Maintenance Plan, i.e. 15.22 tons per day (See Table 5-2).

Based on the conformity analysis for ozone conducted as part of the long-range plan development, as shown in the following tables, the projects and programs included in Connected 2045 are found to be in conformity with the requirements of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the relevant sections of the Final Conformity Rule 40 CFR Part 93, and the Missouri State Conformity Regulations10CSR10-5.480.Thefindingisdocumented in companion report,

PM2.5Federal and State regulations require that projects included in Connected 2045 must pass the following emissions test for each of the four analysis years, 2015, 2025, 2035 and 2045:

• Emissions of direct PM2.5 resulting from the plan’s 2015, 2025, 2035 and 2045 implementation will be less than the 2002 baseline emissions inventory for the entire nonattainment area, i.e. 3,496.71 tons per year (see Table 5-3).

• Emissions of NOx (as a precursor) resulting from the plan’s 2015, 2025, 2035 and 2045 implementation will be less than the 2002 baseline emissions inventory for the entire non-attainment area, 91,707.65 tons per year (see Table 5-4).

Based on the conformity analysis conducted for PM2.5 as part of the long-range plan development, as shown in the following tables, the projects and programs included in Connected 2045 are found to be in conformity with the requirements of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the relevant sections of the Final Conformity Rule 40 CFR Part 93 and the Missouri State Conformity Regulations 10 CSR 10-5.480.Thisfindingisdocumentedincompanionreport, Air Quality Conformity Determination and Documentation (8-Hour Ozone & PM2.5) for Connected 2045: Long-Range Transportation Plan for the St. Louis Region.

Baldwin Township in Randolph County in Illinois is not included in the East-West Gateway region but is included in the PM2.5 non-attainment area for St. Louis. IDOT is the lead agency in overseeing the conformity determination process for Baldwin Township. The mobile source emissions estimates for the Township which have been included in the overall emissions analysis and resulting test can be found in Appendix G of the companion report, Air Quality Conformity Determination and Documentation (8-Hour Ozone & PM2.5) for Connected 2045: Long-Range Transportation Plan for the St. Louis Region.

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