Evolution of Immigration and Projections of Net Migration ... · Philippines 13,158 8,185 10,119...
Transcript of Evolution of Immigration and Projections of Net Migration ... · Philippines 13,158 8,185 10,119...
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1Office of the Chief Actuary Bureau de l’actuaire en chef
Session 141: Social Insurance Projections – Migration 2Michel Montambeault
Evolution of Immigration and Projections of Net Migration
for Canada
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Presentation• Recent Statistics on Canadian Immigration
• Recent Statistics on Net Migration in Canada
• Projections (OCA, Statistics Canada and RRQ)
• International Comparison
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Part 1: Recent Statistics on
Canadian Immigration
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Canadian Immigration (1953-2008)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008Year
Number of Canadian Immigrants
* Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview - 2008.
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Canadian Immigration by Category (1984-2008)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Family class Economic immigrants Refugees Other immigrants
Number of Canadian Immigrants
* Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview - 2008.
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Canadian Immigration by Source Region (1996-2008)
100%100%100%100%100%100%100%All
4%4%3%2%3%3%3%United States
16%15%18%17%19%22%18%Europe
48%50%49%52%53%48%55%Asia and Pacific
11%10%9%9%7%8%8%Americas (excl. U.S.)
21%21%21%20%18%19%16%Africa and the Middle East
2008200620042002200019981996Source Region
* Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview – 2008.
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Canadian Immigrants Top 5 Source Countries (1996-2008)
-2%29,33633,07936,42933,30736,75019,79017,533China
-3%24,54930,75425,57328,83826,12315,37621,291India
12%9,2436,5426,0624,7244,6493,8995,593United Kingdom
13%11,21610,9437,5075,2945,8284,7765,850United States
14%23,72417,71813,30311,01110,1198,18513,158Philippines
Annual Growth
Rate 2002-20082008200620042002200019981996
Source Country
* Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview – 2008.
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Distribution of Canadian Immigrants by Landing Region (1996-2008)
3%18%18%19%16%14%15%13%Québec
4%18%17%16%15%17%21%23%British Columbia
9%10%8%7%7%6%6%6%Alberta
17%6%5%4%3%3%3%3%Prairies
-3%45%50%53%58%59%53%53%Ontario
17%3%2%1%1%1%2%2%Atlantic Provinces
AnnualGrowth Rate
2002-20082008200620042002200019981996Landing Region
* Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview – 2008.
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Proportion of Canadian Immigrants with a University Degree (1996-2008)
45%40%42%40%37%30%24%Females
45%43%46%46%44%35%30%Both Sexes
46%45%49%52%51%41%35%Males2008200620042002200019981996Gender
* Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada: Facts and Figures, Immigration Overview – 2008.
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Part 2: Recent Statistics on
Net Migration for Canada
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Historical Migration Components - Canada(1973-2008)
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Year
ImmigrationEmigrationNet Migration
Percentage of Population
* Source: Statistics Canada Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories - 2009.
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Average Age of Immigrants, Emigrants and Returning Canadians - 1971 and 2008
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1971 2008 1971 2008
Males FemalesImmigrants Emigrants Returning Canadians
* Source: Statistics Canada: Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories – 2009.
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Canadian Interprovincial Migration by Region(1973-2008)
Interprovincial Migration
* Source: Statistics Canada Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories - 2009.
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Historical Migration Components - Québec(1973-2008)
Percentage of Population
* Source: Statistics Canada Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories - 2009.
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Part 3: Projections (OCA,
Statistics Canada and RRQ)
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Comparison of Best-Estimate Assumptions - Canada(2010 and 2030)
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
2010 2030 2010 2030
% of Population # of Net Migration (000's)
0
60
120
180
240
300
OCA StatCan
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Comparison of Best-Estimate Assumptions - Québec (2010 and 2030)
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
2010 2030 2010 2030
% of Population # of Net Migration (000's)
0
10
20
30
40
OCA StatCan RRQ
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Projected Annual Growth of the Canadian Population (Statistic Canada – Medium Scenario)
International Net Migration
Natural Increase
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
(Thousands)
62%
92%
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Projected Annual Growth of the Canadian Population (OCA – 23rd CPP Actuarial Report – Best-Estimate)
International Net Migration
Natural Increase
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
(Thousands)
68%
100%
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Stochastic scenarios within a 95% confidence interval produce minimum contribution rates between 9.70% and 9.92%
Evolution of Asset/Expenditure Ratio with a 9.9% contribution rate
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 20773.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
High-Cost: 0.48% of the population (2020+) Best Estimate: 0.54% of the population (2020+) Low-Cost: 0.59% of the population (2020+)
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Part 4: International Comparison
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International Comparison of Projected Levels of Net Migration – 2010-2040
Note: This graph was prepared by La Régie des Rentes du Québec and was presented at the 16th International Conference of Social Security Actuaries and Statisticians in Ottawa, Canada in September 2009.
0,00%
0,20%
0,40%
0,60%
0,80%
1,00%
2007 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040
Germany
Canada (outside Québec)
United States
Finland
France
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Norway
Portugal
Québec
Switzerland
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Thank YouSession 141: Social Insurance Projections – Migration 2
Michel Montambeault
Evolution of Immigration and Projections of Net Migration
for Canada