“Evidence Based Policy Making” Paris, 2-3 December 2010 Sustainability assessment and public...

29
“Evidence Based Policy Making” Paris, 2-3 December 2010 Sustainability assessment and public participation in territorial planning Marta Bottero Politecnico di Torino

Transcript of “Evidence Based Policy Making” Paris, 2-3 December 2010 Sustainability assessment and public...

“Evidence Based Policy Making”

Paris, 2-3 December 2010

Sustainability assessment and public

participation in territorial planning

Marta Bottero

Politecnico di Torino

Summary• Objective of the work

• Sustainable developmentPrinciples and definitionStrategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

• Public participation

• The Analytic Network ProcessMain steps of the method

• Study caseThe Municipal Plan of the town of Volta Mantovana (Italy)Principal characteristics of the plan

• Structuring of the decision problemDefinition of the decision problemDesign of the evaluation modelPresentation of the alternativesConstruction of the networkWeighting of criteriaEvaluation of the alternatives

• Results and discussionPriorities of the alternativesAggregation of the resultsSensitivity analysis

• Conclusions(Part of the work has been done in collaboration with

Valentina Ferretti and Silvia Pomarico)

Evidence Based Policy Making Evidence Based Policy Making (EBPM) has been defined as an approach that “helps people make well informed decisions about policies, programmes and projects by putting the best available evidence from research at the heart of policy development and implementation” (Davies, 1999).

Tools for policy assessment

- checklists;- questionnaires;- decision trees;- Cost Benefit Analysis;- risk analysis;- computer-based models;- …

Opinion Based Policy Making

Evidence Based Policy Making

Increasing pressures (Time)

(source: adapted from Gray, 1997)

Sustainability assessment in territorial transformations

Different aspects of the decision problem (technical, economic, territorial, environmental aspects)

Public participation and citizens’ involvement in decision-making processes

The objective of the work is to analyze the contribution of the Analytic Network Process in the decision problems related to sustainability assessment of urban and territorial transformations, with particular reference to the issue of public participation in the decision-making process

Sustainable development

Dimensions of sustainability and areas of research

Development of environmental

friendly technologies

Innovation and equity of the development

Economic well-being

Education and cultural

progress

Environmental research

Sustainable development is a 'development which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs’(Bruntland Commission, 1988)

(source: adapted from Mondini, 2009)

1 Minimise use of non-renewable resources

2 Use renewable resources within limits of capacity for regeneration

3Environmentally sound use and management of hazardous/polluting substances and wastes

4 Conserve and enhance the status of wildlife, habitats and landscapes

5 Maintain and improve the quality of soils and water resources

6 Maintain and improve the quality of historic and cultural resources

7 Maintain and improve local environmental quality

8 Protection of the atmosphere

9 Develop environmental awareness, education and training

10 Promote public participation in decisions involving sustainable development

10 criteria for sustainable development

(source: European Commission, 1998)

Strategic Environmental Assessment SEA is a process to ensure that significant environmental effects arising from policies, plans and programmes are identified, assessed, mitigated, communicated to decision-makers, monitored and that opportunities for public involvement are provided.

Particular benefits of SEA include: To support sustainable developmentTo improve the evidence base for strategic decisionsTo facilitate and respond to consultation with stakeholders

(source: European Commission, 2001)

Public participation Public participation has become a central principle of public policy making.It refers to policy strategies that aim at interacting with civil society in order to construct innovative policies.

Main challenges:•How to consider the different opinions (population preferences, community expertise, local knowledge) in the planning process?•How to communicate the results of the planning process?

The decision making process can only be perceived as an adaptive process, where the actors involved are continuously learning (‘social learning process’)

Principal references:• UN Conference on the Environment and Development in Rio in 1992 (UNCED, 1992)•Aarhus convention on access to information, public participation in decision-making and access to justice in environmental matters (UNECE, 1998)

The Analytic Network Process The ANP is a multiple criteria decision making method that has recently been developed by Thomas Saaty (2005) as the generalization of the more well known Analytic Hierarchy Process – AHP (Saaty, 1980) to dependences and feedbacks.

AHP and ANP represent a theory of relative measurement on absolute scales of tangible and intangible criteria based on both the judgments of experts and on existing measurements and statistics needed to make a decision. By means of pairwise comparisons, it is possible to establish the relative importance of the different elements, with respect to a certain component of the network.

A very large and consolidated amount of ANP literature exists in which it is possible to find a wide range of applications in the different fields (economy and finance, transport and logistic, environmental impact assessment, urban and territorial planning).

Network strucuture (ANP)

Goal

Criteria

Sub-criteria

Alternatives

Hierarchical strucutre (AHP)

Alternatives

Cluster Elements

Main steps of the ANP

1. Structuring the decision problem

3. Supermatrixes formation

4. Aggregation of the results and sensitivity analysis

eNnN

eN2

WNN…WN2WN1

eN1

CN

…………

e2n2

e22

W2N…W22W21

e21

C2

e1n1

e12W1N…W12W11

e11

C1

ENnN…eN2eN1e2n2…e22e21e1n1…e12e11

CN….

C2C1

eNnN

eN2

WNN…WN2WN1

eN1

CN

…………

e2n2

e22

W2N…W22W21

e21

C2

e1n1

e12W1N…W12W11

e11

C1

ENnN…eN2eN1e2n2…e22e21e1n1…e12e11

CN….

C2C1

eNnN

eN2

WNN…WN2WN1

eN1

CN

…………

e2n2

e22

W2N…W22W21

e21

C2

e1n1

e12W1N…W12W11

e11

C1

ENnN…eN2eN1e2n2…e22e21e1n1…e12e11

CN….

C2C1

eNnN

eN2

WNN…WN2WN1

eN1

CN

…………

e2n2

e22

W2N…W22W21

e21

C2

e1n1

e12W1N…W12W11

e11

C1

ENnN…eN2eN1e2n2…e22e21e1n1…e12e11

CN….

C2C1

2. Filling in the pairwise comparison matrixes

Intensity Explanation

1Two decision elements equally influence the parent decision element

3One decision element is moderately more influential than the other

5 One decision element has stronger influence than the other

7One decision element has significantly more influence over the other

9The difference between influences of the two decision elements is extremely significant

Presentation of the study case

The Muncipal Plan of the town of Volta Mantovana (Italy)

Main characteristics of the plan

1. Objective

Design of the town avoiding the consumption of new soil

2. Strategy

Creation of a green city, easy to be reached and traveled and with many spaces and services

3. Rules

Realization of a system of rules where private rights are integrated with public rights

4. Approach

Creation of a laboratory of ideas with the citizens with the aim of reinventing the city

COMMUNICATION and TRANSPARENCY of activities

Citizens’ PARTICIPATION

INTEGRATION of private bodies in the planning process

Economic, social and environmental SUSTAINABILITY

… the lines

Definition of the decision problem The objective of the evaluation refers to the selection of the most important areas to which it is necessary to pay more attention in the planning process

The evaluation process has been developed through the ANP and it is has been closely integrated with the participatory planning process that has been carried out in order to involve the population in planning decisions

Citizens and associations

Environmental authorities

Private companies and

practitioners

Public debates

Questionnaires

Web site

Municipal Planning Bureau

NEEDS

INFORMATION

Structuring of the decision problem

OBJECTIVES ACTIONS PREFERENCES

General objectives Specific objectives

SYSTEM

S

Design of the evaluation model

Selection of the most important areas for the development of the

town of Volta MantovanaOBJECTIVE

SUB-NETWORKS(systems)

NATURAL AND CULTURAL SYSTEM

URBAN AND SOCIAL SYSTEM

ECONOMIC AND MOBILITY SYSTEM

CLUSTERS(general objectives)

ELEMENTS(specific

objectives)

ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS(actions)

Pre

fere

nce

s sy

stem

expre

ssed b

y t

he p

opu

lati

on

Exp

ert

s opin

ion

Element 1.b

Element 1.a

CLUSTER 1

Alternative B

Alternative A

Alternatives

Alternative C

Element 2.b

Element 2.a

CLUSTER 2

Element 3.b

Element 3.a

CLUSTER 3

Element 1.b

Element 1.a

CLUSTER 1

Alternative B

Alternative A

Alternatives

Alternative C

Element 2.b

Element 2.a

CLUSTER 2

Element 3.b

Element 3.a

CLUSTER 3

Element 1.b

Element 1.a

CLUSTER 1

Alternative B

Alternative A

Alternatives

Alternative C

Element 2.b

Element 2.a

CLUSTER 2

Element 3.b

Element 3.a

CLUSTER 3

Element 1.b

Element 1.a

CLUSTER 1

Alternative B

Alternative A

Alternatives

Alternative C

Element 2.b

Element 2.a

CLUSTER 2

Element 3.b

Element 3.a

CLUSTER 3

Element 1.b

Element 1.a

CLUSTER 1

Alternative B

Alternative A

Alternatives

Alternative C

Element 2.b

Element 2.a

CLUSTER 2

Element 3.b

Element 3.a

CLUSTER 3

Element 1.b

Element 1.a

CLUSTER 1

Alternative B

Alternative A

Alternatives

Alternative C

Element 2.b

Element 2.a

CLUSTER 2

Element 3.b

Element 3.a

CLUSTER 3

Definition of the alternatives The set of actions that was identified in the participatory process was taken into account for the construction of the alternative options.

In particular, the analysis of the territorial distribution of the actions led to the identification of five different areas, where the actions were concentrated:

1. Hilly agricultural areas

2. Plain agricultural areas

3. Industrial areas

4. Suburban urban areas

5. Central urban areas

Description of the alternatives

1. Hilly agricultural areasSpecific actions for the protection and the valorisation of the natural vocation of the areas, with particular reference to the management of the agricultural landscape and to the enhancement of the tourism sector

2. Plain agricultural areasPunctual projects, such as the creation of a new environmentally-friendly industrial area and the construction of a solar power plant. Particular attention to the management of the existing quarry activities

3. Industrial areasRequalification projects are taken into account, with particular reference to the abandoned industrial buildings.

4. Suburban urban areas Different actions have been considered to improve the quality of life of the inhabitants of the suburbs, with particular reference to both material (road network) and immaterial (internet network) communication infrastructures.

5. Central urban areasRequalification projects for some historical buildings in the centre of the town. Further actions related to the creation of new services for the population, such as green areas, schools, etc.

Construction of the network

Control criteria Clusters

Creation of new centralities in the suburban urban areas

Recovery and reuse of buildings and abandoned areas

Promotion of architectural and urban projects in terms of quality Implementation of services such as areas dedicated to sports, culture and meeting places

Preservation of the original destination of the areas

Improvement of the quality of life of the poor people and young couples Good quality city life for children

City valorization and requalification

Creation of an urban green areas system Environmental and functional requalification of downgraded urban areas, with particular reference to the abandoned industrial areas

Requalification of downgraded urban

areas Landscape improvement and amelioration of external areas and of the main gates of the town Promotion of the community tradition of Volta Mantovana through the existing festivals and events in an integrated way

URBA

N A

ND

SO

CIA

L SY

STEM

Promotion and valorization of cultural

events Pursuit of greater social involvement of the c itizens Reduction in energy consumption Use of renewable energy sources Reduction in waste Reduction in water consumption Efficiency in consumption of resources Exploitation of daylight

Promotion of bio architectural projects

Optimization of the use of environmental

resources

Optimization of the healthiness of the settlement areas Enhancement of agricultural areas as places of multifunctionality and landscape conservation Valorization and protection of suburban urban areas as part of historical and cultural importance ensuring the presence of minimum services

Protection and valorization of the cultural heritage

Valorization and protection of Cultural Heritage Creation of a green belt around the town Development of a project aimed at the reconstruction of ecological corridors and at the protection of existing habitats

Conservation and valorization of the natural heritage

Increase in the use of natural-physical heritage NA

TURA

L A

ND

CULT

URA

L SY

STEM

Soil consumption reduction

Encouragement of building recovery and renovation

Rationalization of the transport system within the municipality Enlargement of the links outside the munic ipal area Containment of urban traffic by promoting alternative modes to private cars

Rationalization of the transport system inside

the town territory Creation of a mobility system taking into account citizens with mobility difficulties

Promotion of economic activities connected to

the tourist sector Enhancement of tourist sector

Diffusion of sustainable agricultural activities

ECO

NO

MIC

AN

D

MO

BIL

ITY S

YST

EM

Enhancement of agricultural areas as

sustainable productive areas

Production of a short chain with a direct relationship between the producer and the citizen

Elements

Example of subnetwork

ALTERNATIVES

1. Aires agricoles des collines

2. Aires agricoles dans la plaine

3. Aires industrielles

4. Aires urbaines périphériques

5. Aires urbaines centrales

CITY VALORIZATION AND REQUALIFICATION

- creation of new centralities in the suburban urban areas

- recovery and reuse of buildings and abandoned areas

- promotion of architectural and urban projects in terms of quality

- implementation of services (areas dedicated to sports, culture and meeting places)

- preservation of the original destination of the areas

- improvement of the quality of life of the poor people and young couples

- good quality city life for children

- creation of an urban green areas system

PROMOTION AND VALORIZATION OF CULTURAL EVENTS

- promotion of the local tradition

- pursuit of greater social involvement of the citizens

RIQUALIFICATION OF DOWNGRADED URBAN AREAS

- environmental and functional requalification of downgraded urban areas, with particular reference to the abandoned industrial areas

- landscape improvement and amelioration of external areas and of the main gates of the town

Selection of the most important areas for the development of the town of Volta Mantovana

Natural and cultural systemUrban and

social system

Economic and mobility system

Weighting of criteria With reference to the weighting of control criteria and clusters, the judgments are directly derived from the preferences expressed by citizens for the actions during the participatory planning process.

It was decided to proceed according to the following procedure:

1. The sum of all preferences expressed for the actions was calculated and divided by ten;

2. The figures thus obtained were normalized using each of the three systems and expressed in percentage terms;

3. The values of the actions related to the same specific objective were summed;

4. The figures related to each specific objective were further summed with respect to the related general objective;

5. The sum of the weights of the general objectives in each system gives the weights of the three control criteria.

CONTROL CRITERIA

CLUSTERSWEIGH

TS

URBAN AND SOCIAL SYSTEM

(49,86)

City valorization and requalification 37,92

Requalification of downgraded urban areas 5,83

Promotion and valorization of cultural events 6,11

NATURAL AND CULTURAL

SYSTEM(30,69)

Optimization of the use of environmental resources 9,85

Protection and valorization of the cultural heritage 3,89

Conservation and valorization of the natural heritage

6,25

Soil consumption reduction 10,97

ECONOMIC AND MOBILITY SYSTEM(19,72)

Rationalization of the transport system inside the town territory

13,47

Promotion of economic activities connected to the tourism sector

2,50

Enhancement of agricultural areas as sustainable productive areas

3,75

The weights thus obtained have been then used for filling in the cluster matrix in each subnetwork

Evaluation of the alternatives With reference to the elements level, the evaluation has been carried out through pairwise comparisons. The numerical judgments used to fill the pairwise comparison matrices were derived by a specific focus group where different experts worked together to evaluate the alternative options with respect to the model elements.

Hilly agricultural areas 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Plain agricultural areas

Hilly agricultural areas 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Industrial areas

Hilly agricultural areas 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Suburban urban areas

Hilly agricultural areas 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Central urban areas

Plain agricultural areas 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Industrial areas

Plain agricultural areas 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Suburban urban areas

Plain agricultural areas 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Central urban areas

Industrial areas 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Suburban urban areas

Industrial areas 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Central urban areas

Suburban urban areas 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Central urban areas

With references the evaluation of the most important areas for the planning process of the Municipal Plan of Volta Mantovana, which alternative offers the best possibility of achieving the objective of “pursuit of the greater social involvement of citizens”? And how much more?

With reference to the “requalification of downgraded urban areas”, which objective does the alternative “industrial areas” pursue more: the “landscape improvement and amelioration of external areas and of the main gates of the town” or the “environmental and functional requalification of downgraded urban areas, with particular reference to the abandoned industrial areas”? And how much more?

Environmental requalification … 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Landscape improvement …

Calculation of the priorities

Alternatives Promotion and valorization

of cultural eventsRequalification of

downgraded urban areasCity valorization and

requalification

Alternatives 0,000 1,000 1,000 0,449

Promotion and valorization of cultural events

0,125 0,000 0,000 0,126

Requalification of downgraded urban areas

0,125 0,000 0,000 0,288

City valorization and requalification 0,750 0,000 0,000 0,138

Init

ial su

perm

atr

ixC

lust

er

matr

ix

With reference to each subnetwork, the cluster matrix was applied to the initial supermatrix as a cluster weight. The result was the weighted supermatrix, which was raised to a limiting power to obtain the limit supermatrix.

Urban and social system subnetwork

Alt. 1 Alt. 2 Alt. 3 Alt. 4 Alt. 5 C1 C2 B1 B2 A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8

Alt. 1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.330 0.041 0.046 0.203 0.074 0.037 0.043 0.038 0.051 0.048 0.051 0.044

Alt. 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.330 0.041 0.066 0.079 0.074 0.037 0.043 0.038 0.051 0.048 0.051 0.044

Alt. 3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.194 0.599 0.486 0.291 0.485 0.304 0.546 0.054 0.048 0.140 0.382

Alt. 4 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.150 0.362 0.246 0.176 0.528 0.220 0.304 0.188 0.556 0.429 0.379 0.182

Alt. 5 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.150 0.362 0.042 0.056 0.034 0.220 0.304 0.188 0.287 0.429 0.379 0.348

C1 0.833 0.833 0.750 0.250 0.250 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.250 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

C2 0.167 0.167 0.250 0.750 0.750 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.750 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

B1 0.500 0.250 0.875 0.750 0.500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

B2 0.500 0.750 0.125 0.250 0.500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

A1 0.076 0.064 0.037 0.318 0.018 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

A2 0.281 0.273 0.274 0.084 0.262 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

A3 0.247 0.280 0.231 0.318 0.100 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

A4 0.019 0.142 0.272 0.068 0.142 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

A5 0.078 0.063 0.044 0.021 0.067 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

A6 0.019 0.019 0.026 0.061 0.127 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

A7 0.018 0.017 0.019 0.070 0.142 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

A8 0.264 0.141 0.097 0.060 0.142 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Discussion of the results

Control criteria

Clusters Nodes Priorities

Alt 1 0,035

Alt 2 0,033

Alt 3 0,167

Alt 4 0,132

Alt 5 0,087

A1 0,041

A2 0,074

A3 0,080

A4 0,054

A5 0,016

A6 0,019

A7 0,025

A8 0,038

B1 0,100

B2 0,030

C1 0,033

C2 0,036

Alt 1 0,107

Alt 2 0,083

Alt 3 0,136

Alt 4 0,082

Alt 5 0,082

D1 0,015

D2 0,013

D3 0,008

D4 0,012

D5 0,036

D6 0,016

D7 0,019

D8 0,062

E1 0,025

E2 0,028

E3 0,012

F1 0,024

F2 0,035

F3 0,034

Soil consumption reduction G1 0,173

Alt 1 0,077

Alt 2 0,059

Alt 3 0,016

Alt 4 0,139

Alt 5 0,196

H1 0,112

H2 0,071

H3 0,089

H4 0,085

Promotion of economic activities connected to the turist sector

I1 0,087

L1 0,030

L2 0,037

NA

TU

RA

L A

ND

CU

LT

UR

AL

SY

STE

M

Alternatives

Optimization of the use of environmental resources

Protection and valorization of the cultural heritage

Conservation and valorization of the natural heritage

EC

ON

OM

IC A

ND

MO

BIL

ITY

SY

STE

M

Alternatives

Rationalization of the transport system inside the town territory

Enhancement of agricultural areas as sustainable productive areas

Alternatives

City valorization and requalification

Requalification of downgraded urban areas

Promotion and valorization of cultural events

UR

BA

N A

ND

SO

CIA

L S

YST

EM The calculation of the limit supermatrix in the

three subnetworks provides the final priority vector of all the elements being considered.

Leaving aside the priorities of the alternatives (in white in the graph), the results of the ANP model highlight that the most important elements in the identification of the strategic areas for the development of Volta Mantovana are:

Environmental and functional requalification of downgraded urban

areas

(urban and social system)

Encouragement of building recovery and renovation

(natural and cultural system)

Rationalization of the transport system within the municipality

(economic and mobility system)

Priorities of the alternatives

The normalization of the raw priorities of the alternatives obtained by the limit supermatrix provides the priorities of the alternatives for each subnetwork

AlternativesUrban and

social systemNatural and

cultural systemEconomic and

mobility system

1. Hilly agricultural areas 0,077 0,218 0,159

2. Plain agricultural areas 0,074 0,170 0,121

3. Industrial areas 0,368 0,277 0,034

4. Suburban urban areas 0,290 0,168 0,284

5. Central urban areas 0,191 0,167 0,402

Aggregation of the results

The priorities of the alternatives have been aggregated through an additive formula which considers the weights of the three control criteria

iiii pem*EMpnc*NCpus*USptot

where:

- ptoti represents the overall score obtained from alternative i;

- US, NC and EM represent the weights of the urban and social system, the natural and cultural system and the economic and mobility system, respectively;

- pusi, pnci and pemi represent the scores obtained from alternative i in the urban and social system subnetwork, in the natural and cultural system subnetwork and in the economic and mobility system subnetwork, respectively.

0.140

0.115

0.289

0.245

0.211

Hilly agriculturalareas

Plain agriculturalareas

Industrial areas

Suburban urbanareas

Central urban areas

Sensitivity analysis

Urban and social system

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Alt 1

Alt 2

Alt 3

Alt 4

Alt 5

Natural and cultural system

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Alt 1

Alt 2

Alt 3

Alt 4

Alt 5

Economic and mobilty systemThe sensitivity analysis allows the robustness of the model to be tested by verifying the changes in the alternatives priorities (y axis) with reference to the changes in the weights of the control criteria (x axis).

The analysis puts in evidence that the alternative related to the industrial areas (alternative 3) is not sensitive to the changes in the weights of the control criteria, with an exception for the economic and mobility system.

Rank reversal

In order to further test the results of the model it is of scientific interest to verify the rank reversal of the alternatives by eliminating the highest priority alternative from each subnetwork of the model and thus studying the resulting final ranking searching for potential changes

Subnetwork Alternative priorities

Original ranking

Eliminated alternative

New priorities

New ranking

Urban and social system

1: 0,0772: 0,074 3: 0,3684: 0,2905: 0,191

3>4>5>1>2 3

1: 0,1202: 0,1104: 0,4965: 0,274

4>5>1>2

Natural and cultural system

1: 0,2182: 0,1703: 0,2774: 0,1685: 0,167

3>1>2>4>5 3

1: 0,2982: 0,2504: 0,2205: 0,232

1>2>5>4

Economic and mobility system

1: 0,1592: 0,1213: 0,0344: 0,2845: 0,402

5>4>1>2>3 5

1: 0,2732: 0,1883: 0,0484: 0,490

4>1>2>3

The rank is preserved in all the cases, with an exception for the two lowest priority alternatives in the natural and cultural system

The final planning strategies

The intervention on the INDUSTRIAL AREAS is one of the most important strategies of the Municipal Plan

Conclusions

✕ The ANP prescribes a high number of comparisons that occasionally become too complex to understand for DMs who are not familiar with the method.

The developed model succeded in representing the complexity of the decision problem under examination.

The ANP method is suitable for dealing with the Decision Makers and for integrating the opinion of the population in the decision processes concerning territorial transformations.

By means of the application, the DMs gained more awareness of the elements at stake while structuring the model and thus learns about the problems while solving them.

The results of the model could be further validated by means of the application of MCDA methods based on indirect preference (e.g. the theory of Dominance-based Rough Set Approach, Greco et al., 2001, 2008).

Given the spatial nature of the decisional problem, future improvements of the work will refer to the integration of the MCDA tool with Geographic Information Systems in order to develop a Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support System (Malczewski, 1999) that will enable multi-purpose planning.

The ANP method seems to be suitable for combining decision aiding and participatory planning in the decision problems concerning urban and territorial transformations

PR

OSC

ON

S