Evidence and Development: Poverty, Literacy, HIV

Roy Carr-Hill

Visiting Research Professor

Lifelong Education and International Development

Presentation

• Measurement of poverty and assessing progress towards MDG 1

• Acquiring and retaining literacy

• Teachers vulnerability to HIV

Importance of Accurate Measurement

Debates about Poverty• Ever more sophistication in concepts

(absolute/relative) and analysis of poverty (e.g poverty mapping;

• Whilst recognised as a problem there is still very little attention to quality of basic data

Millenium Development Goals – How will we know where we are in

2015?– How far are we away now?

Measurement of Poverty• Lack of agreement over whether to use

absolute or relative poverty

• Conventional levels like US$1 or US$2 a day per person are used with little evidence

• Lack of relation with other measures of well-being e.g. mortality, education

• Usually based on household expenditure surveys, i.e. what is consumed in the market omitting barter, black markets and exchange

Asset Indices

Difficulty of asking expenditure has led to

development of ‘asset indices’ but

• no information on quality and quantity of goods and services including the reliability of the asset

• distinguishing between household ownership, household based assets and individual access

Monitoring Poverty Reduction Strategies

1. International recognition that quality of statistics has deteriorated (e.g. Can’t Count Progress, ODI Review) BUT

2. Majority of information systems are donor funded with minimal national involvement leading to proliferation of proposals for electronic systems with little ongoing support

3. Still little attention to assuring the quality of the basic data

3. Quality of Basic Data• Entrenched systems

• Little or no inspection or quality assurance

• Weak capacity – numbers and qualifications

• No local use of data – so no incentive to verify (Musgrove – data has to be used within 5km to ensure reliability)

• HAS LED TO

• Increasing use of household surveys

Monitoring the Poor: Household Surveys

MOST SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT DATA BASED ON HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS

• Demographic and Health Surveys in 45 countries (USAID)

• Living Standard Measurement Surveys in 40 countries (World Bank)

• Multiple Indicators Cluster Surveys in 40 countries (UNICEF)

Household Surveys: Omissions

1. Those not in households because they are homeless

2. Those who are in institutions

3. Mobile, Nomadic or pastoralist populations

4. Many of those in fragile or disjointed or multiple occupancy households.

Literacy Retention

• Presumed minimum of 4 years primary schooling for any literacy retention

• Surveys of adult literates including tests in Kenya (1988), Tanzania (1992), Uganda (1999) showed that number of years (<4) at school most important determinant

Literacy Retention (cont’d)

• Analysis of 44 MICS surveys that included question on self-reported literacy (for next EFA GMR) showed steep gradient from 0 to 1 to 2/3 years schooling in all countries

• Any schooling affects potential for literacy, drop-outs have gained something,e tc

Teachers Vulnerability to HIV

• Presumed more vulnerable because middle class, mobile, males use position of power

• BUT• Estimates in several countries of SSA now

suggest that teachers are no more and possibly less vulnerable than other 18-49

WHY• Exposure to HIV prevention materials?• Maturity?• Experience