EVALUATION OF FAO'S

WORK IN COMMODITIES AND TRADE

16 March 2007

Evaluation Team: Independent Expert Review Panel: Ronald Duncan, Team Leader Michel Petit, Chair Stanley Johnson John Baffes Daniel Shallon Paola Fortucci Soren Frandsen* for Near East mission: Ashok Gulati* Timothy Josling Robert Moore Nelson Ndirangu Mark Newman Miguel Rodriguez Mendoza* * present at February meeting only

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Acknowledgement

The Evaluation Team (ET) expresses appreciation to all of those who made time to share their views on the Commodities and Trade work of FAO, both in the field and at headquarters. The Team had the occasion to interview a wide range of professionals from in-country agencies, intergovernmental organizations (UN and others), regional economic bodies, international commodity bodies, private sector companies and organizations, non-governmental organizations, and economic research institutions, who were generous in sharing their views on the Commodities and Trade work of FAO. Without their sincere cooperation, the ET could not have completed its assignment satisfactorily.

NB: Throughout this report, the designation used for the main FAO Division responsible for commodities and trade work is "ESC", which was the acronym for the Commodities and Trade Division for the duration of the work of the Evaluation Team.

This Division's name was officially changed just after the Team completed its work, and it is now called the "Trade and Markets Division", abbreviated "EST".

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Table of Contents

ACRONYMS ..............................................................................................................V

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND MAJOR RECOMMENDATIONS.............................VII

A. Background and Terms of Reference.......................................................................................................vii

B. Major Conclusions and Recommendations .............................................................................................vii

I. INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT ...................................................................... 1

II. SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY OF THE EVALUATION ................................ 1

A. Scope of the Evaluation ............................................................................................................................... 1

B. Evaluation Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 3

III. DIRECTIONS TO THE EVALUATION TEAM FROM THE EXPERT PANEL.. 5

IV. OVERVIEW OF FAO'S ACTIVITIES IN COMMODITIES AND TRADE........... 6

A. Understanding the Evolving Global Context for Trade and International Commodity Markets ........ 6

B. Evolution of FAO's Work in Commodities and Trade ............................................................................. 7

C. The Commodities and Trade Division ....................................................................................................... 8 1. Programme Design, 'Old' Divisional Organization and Working Arrangements ...................................... 8 2. Mandate ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 3. ESC's Main Capacities and Core Outputs in Commodities and Trade Work............................................ 9 4. Restructuring of ESC Under the Ongoing FAO Reform Process............................................................ 10 5. Changes to the ESC Programme Entities Under the Reform................................................................... 12

D. Other FAO Divisions Doing Related Work ............................................................................................. 13 1. Agriculture and Development Economics Division (ESA) ..................................................................... 13 2. Policy Assistance Division (TCA) .......................................................................................................... 13 3. Statistics Division (ESS) ......................................................................................................................... 14 4. The Global Perspectives Studies Unit ..................................................................................................... 15

E. Interaction with Other Institutions Working in Commodities and Trade............................................ 15 1. International Commodity Bodies (ICBs)................................................................................................. 16 2. Non-government Organisations (NGOs) ................................................................................................. 16 3. Other Inter-governmental Organizations (IGOs)..................................................................................... 17 4. Regional Economic Bodies ..................................................................................................................... 17 5. Academic institutions .............................................................................................................................. 18

F. Regular Programme Resources ................................................................................................................ 18 1. Diminishing Human Resources ............................................................................................................... 18 2. Shrinking Financial Resources ................................................................................................................ 19

G. Extra-budgetary Resources for Headquarters Programmes............................................................. 20

H. Extra-Budgetary Resources for Field Activities ................................................................................. 21

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V. ASSESSMENT OF IMPLEMENTATION OF FAO COMMODITIES AND TRADE WORK ........................................................................................................ 23

A. Clients and Target Audience of FAO's Commodities and Trade Work ............................................... 23 1. Main Concerns of Member Countries ..................................................................................................... 23

B. Review of Implementation of the "Old" Programme Entities............................................................... 25 1. PROGRAMME 2.2.3: Food and Agricultural Monitoring, Assessments and Outlooks ......................... 25 2. PROGRAMME 2.2.4: Agriculture, Food and Trade policy.................................................................... 26 3. Overall scoring of the Programme Entities.............................................................................................. 28 4. Notes on the scoring ................................................................................................................................ 29 5. Impact of Extra-Budgetary Support to the Headquarters Programme ..................................................... 30

C. Analytical Capabilities, Modelling and Data Management by ESC...................................................... 31 1. Data Needs for Commodity Analysis and Collaboration with the Statistics Division (ESS) .................. 31 2. Usefulness of Commodity and Trade Data to External Users ................................................................. 31 3. Economic Models and Modelling: the Case for COSIMO...................................................................... 32 4. Impact of FAO's Commodity Market Analysis and Modelling............................................................... 32 5. Partnerships for Data Management and Analysis .................................................................................... 33

D. The Committee on Commodity Problems and the Intergovernmental Groups ................................... 34 1. Relevance, Participation and Outcomes of the CCP and the IGGs, 2000-2006 ...................................... 34 2. Future of the CCP and the IGGs.............................................................................................................. 37

E. Periodicals, Publications, the Internet, and Communicating FAO's Message ..................................... 38 1. Peer Reviews by the Expert Panel and the ET......................................................................................... 38 2. Views from Member Countries on the Focus of Analytical Studies ....................................................... 39 3. Summary Review of Citations................................................................................................................. 40 4. Web Presence and Internet Usage ........................................................................................................... 41

F. Direct Technical Assistance to Member Countries ................................................................................. 43 1. General issues.......................................................................................................................................... 43 2. Information and Publications................................................................................................................... 44 3. Advice to Governments on Trade Policy................................................................................................. 45 4. Training ................................................................................................................................................... 45 5. Results of Country Assistance and Future directions .............................................................................. 46

VI. KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FAO'S WORK IN COMMODITIES AND TRADE..................................................................................................................... 47

A. General Recommendations ....................................................................................................................... 47

B. Specific Recommendations........................................................................................................................ 49 1. Relations with the Private Sector............................................................................................................. 49 2. Government ............................................................................................................................................. 49 3. International Commodity Bodies (ICBs)................................................................................................. 49 4. U.N. Conference on Trade and Development.......................................................................................... 50 5. The Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP) .................................................................................... 50 6. Inter-Governmental Commodity Groups................................................................................................. 50 7. FAOSTAT ............................................................................................................................................... 50 8. NGOs....................................................................................................................................................... 50 9. Research Institutions ............................................................................................................................... 51

C. Divisional Issues ......................................................................................................................................... 51 1. Modelling Capabilities ............................................................................................................................ 51 2. Incentives within the Division................................................................................................................. 51 3. Communications strategy and dissemination of publications.................................................................. 51 4. Thematic Research Areas ........................................................................................................................ 51

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D. Recommendations at Corporate Level for FAO to Consider................................................................. 51 1. FAO representatives ................................................................................................................................ 52 2. Rationalising ESA, EST and TCA Divisions .......................................................................................... 52 3. FAOSTAT ............................................................................................................................................... 52 4. FAO Interaction with the Private Sector ................................................................................................. 52 5. Incentives................................................................................................................................................. 52

APPENDIX: SUGGESTED THEMATIC AREAS FOR THE WORK OF EST DIVISION ................................................................................................................. 54

1. Integrated Marketing ............................................................................................................................... 54 2. Food Aid.................................................................................................................................................. 54 3. Trade and Development........................................................................................................................... 55 4. Emerging countries able to change international commodity markets: Brazil, China and India............. 55 5. Production of Bio-fuels and Materials..................................................................................................... 56 6. Commodity Risk Management................................................................................................................ 56 7. Standards and Certification ..................................................................................................................... 56

ANNEX I: METHODOLOGY FOR THE EVALUATION

ANNEX II: TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE EVALUATION

ANNEX III: REPORT OF THE FIRST EXPERT PANEL MEETING: REVIEW OF ISSUES TO BE EVALUATED

ANNEX IV: PROGRAMME ENTITY REVIEW

ANNEX V: PUBLICATIONS OF THE COMMODITIES AND TRADE DIVISION

ANNEX VI: QUESTIONNAIRE SENT TO MEMBER COUNTRIES

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ACRONYMS

ACP Africa, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States AGS Agricultural Support Systems Division (FAO) ASEAN Association of South-East Asian Nations AU African Union CAFTA Central American Free Trade Agreement (with the US) CARICOM Caribbean Community and Common Market CARIFORUM CARICOM plus Haiti and Dominican Republic CCP Committee on Commodity Problems (of the FAO Council) CFC Common Fund for Commodities CRNM Caribbean Regional Negotiating Machinery CSA Collectif Stratégies Alimentaires (NGO) DFID Department for International Development (UK) EAC East African Community EC European Commission ECA UN Economic Commission for Africa (also UNECA) ECLAC UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (also CEPAL) ECOWAS UN Economic Commission for West African States (anglophone and francophone) EPA Economic Partnership Agreement (EU with ACP countries) ERS Economic Research Service (USDA) ES Economic and Social Department (FAO) ESA Agriculture and Development Economics Division (FAO) ESC Commodities and Trade Division (renamed Trade and Markets Division - EST just

after the evaluation) (FAO) ESCB Basic Foodstuffs Service, Commodities and Trade Division (FAO) ESCG Global Information and Early Warning Service, ESC (FAO) ESCP Commodity Policy and Projections Service, ESC (FAO) ESCR Raw Materials, Tropical and Horticultural Products Service, ESC (FAO) ESDG Global Perspectives Studies Unit (FAO) ESS Statistics Division (FAO) EST Trade and Markets Division (new name of ESC) (FAO) ET Evaluation Team (of this evaluation) EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAOSTAT The FAO Statistical Database FAS Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA) FTA Free Trade Agreement GAFTA Grains and Feed Trade Association GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade ICB International Commodity Body (generic term) ICCO International Cocoa Organization ICO International Coffee Organization IFAP International Federation of Agricultural Producers IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IGC International Grains Council IGG Inter-Governmental Commodity Groups (FAO commodity bodies)

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IGO Inter-Governmental Organization (such as UN agencies, CGIAR institutes, Development Banks, etc.)

IICA Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture INGO International Non-Governmental Organization ITC International Trade Centre (WTO/UNCTAD) MAFF Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Japan) MERCOSUR Common Market of the South (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay) MOU Memorandum of Understanding NGO Non-Governmental Organization NTB Non-Tariff Barriers to trade ODI Overseas Development Institute (UK) OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development PE Programme Entity (in FAO's programming system) PTA Preferential Trade Agreement RAF Regional Office for Africa (FAO) RAP Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (FAO) RAPP Policy Assistance Branch of RAP (FAO) RLC Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean (FAO) RNE Regional Office for the Near East (FAO) SADC Southern Africa Development Community SLAC Subregional Office for Latin America and the Pacific (FAO) SOFA State of Food and Agriculture (FAO publication) SPS Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary (Measures, Agreement, etc.) TBT Technical Barriers to Trade TCA Policy Assistance Division (FAO) TCP Technical Cooperation Programme (FAO fund for small projects) UEMOA Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine (West African Economic and

Monetary Union - Francophone countries) UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development USAID United States Agency for International Development USDA United States Department of Agriculture WTO World Trade Organization ZRG Zero Real Growth

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND MAJOR RECOMMENDATIONS

A. Background and Terms of Reference

1. The assignment for the Evaluation Team (ET) is described in the Terms of Reference (TOR) in Annex II. The evaluation was to assess the work of FAO in Commodities and Trade and in serving the interests of member countries. The ET followed the evaluation methodology described in Annex I. The TOR were reviewed by an Expert Panel prior to the ET undertaking the fieldwork, the headquarters assessments, and sending out the questionnaire to all member countries. The outcome of the review by the Expert Panel is provided in Annex III. The interaction with the Expert Panel and the field and headquarters work took place between November 2005 and July 2006.

2. The divisions that are responsible for the major share of the work on Commodities and Trade are the Commodities and Trade Division (ESC), the Agriculture and Development Economics Division (ESA), the Policy Assistance Division (TCA), the Global Perspectives Studies Unit (ESDG) and the Statistics Division (ESS). ESC carries out the major part of the work, along with data support (FAOSTAT) from the Statistics Division (ESS). Other departments have commodities and trade as a much smaller part of their mission.

3. Following preparation of a draft report by the ET, the Expert Panel met from 10 to 13 July 2006 to review the report and discuss with the ET and the management of the ESC Division the evaluation and recommendations. The recommendations presented below have the endorsement of the Expert Panel.

B. Major Conclusions and Recommendations

4. The major conclusions and recommendations from the Evaluation are listed below, with brief comment. Three themes are evident in the recommendations:

(i) a focus on partnerships;

(ii) establishment of incentive structures to ensure that FAO staff are empowered to seek and develop partnerships and added resources for commodities and trade work; and

(iii) concentration on major themes for the FAO work on commodities and trade.

5. Partnerships are important since the scope of the work on commodities and trade is expanding and becoming more interconnected. Incentives are essential to the development and effective management and resourcing of these partnerships. The focus on major themes will help clarify the choice of partners and the substance of the partnership arrangements.

1) ESC is in transformation, focusing more on analysis, markets and trade than on descriptive work on commodity markets. This transformation is not complete, but the ET considers that movement is generally in the correct direction. One of the reasons for the change is that the international commodity bodies and the private sector are now doing much of the work that was undertaken by ESC in the past.

2) Almost all of the trade in commodities is now undertaken by the private sector. This must be more fully acknowledged in the member countries and within FAO. The activities of the Inter-governmental Commodity Bodies (ICBs) and the private sector must be more fully recognized and, through partnerships, made a part of the FAO work on commodities and trade, particularly in work on the short-term outlook for commodities. The private sector is developing new integrated commodity marketing systems. FAO must be a part of the study and advise on the functions and regulation of these.

3) The traditional partners of FAO within member countries have been and still are the ministries of agriculture. In most cases these ministries are no longer the locus of major decisions on

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trade, and in fact, are generally unprepared to be involved. For example, many ministries of agriculture have no marketing or trade departments. If FAO is to be player in commodities and trade analysis and policy, it will have to expand involvement within countries to include trade and commerce ministries, as well as the private sector. This puts a new and heavy burden on the Country Representatives and on the Policy Assistance Division (TCA), as well as the divisions at headquarters.

4) The ET considers that some of the management and coordination problems that were evident among the divisions involved in commodities and trade could be reduced by having the divisions select major themes for their research and analysis. Detailed recommendations have been made on possible themes for ESC, and perhaps other divisions involved in commodities and trade. These are: integrated marketing or supply networks; food aid after the conclusion of the WTO Doha round; supply response within countries that have reduced trade barriers; agricultural and economic developments in China, India and other countries that have the potential to change world markets for commodities; bio-fuels (and materials) produced from agricultural products; commodity risk management; and standards and certification.

5) Incentives are an important issue in public and private organizations. It is suggested that a hard look should be taken at the (largely implicit) incentive system operating within FAO, and especially incentives facing the staff in the divisions involved in commodities and trade work. In view of the budgetary constraints that it faces, FAO must obtain more direct donor grants and contracts if it is to continue to be a major player in international agricultural and food markets. There is an increased emphasis on incentive systems in universities, government agencies, and in other international agencies - FAO should be a leader, not a follower, in providing incentives to better achieve its mission.

6) Commodity risk management has long been a part of the commodities and trade agenda in FAO. Government management of buffer funds and buffer stocks and other price stabilization mechanisms has proved unviable and inconsistent with international trade laws. New approaches to risk management that use financial derivatives are evolving and could be a major part of the FAO work on commodities and trade.

7) Given the importance of FAO's commodity and trade data for ESC's work, the Evaluation needed to make an assessment of the plans of ESS to update and improve the scope and content of FAOSTAT. The changes to FAOSTAT that are planned will lead to considerable improvements in the FAO data set, such as in timeliness and quality, and result in regaining the ground lost during a period of apparent inactivity. These changes will also lead to improvements in ESC's analytical capability.

8) NGOs have a great influence on the nature of development assistance and the willingness of developed and developing countries to support it. FAO has little contact with these groups for commodity and trade work. The ET understands that developing closer relationships with NGOs is a risky process, given their advocacy focus. However, FAO needs to cooperate productively with the NGOs for commodities and trade work, if it is to achieve its mission.

9) There are several ESC management issues that deserve comment. These are reviewed in detail in the Key Recommendations section (VI):

a. The ET recommends that the COSIMO model should be the only large model supported by the Division. If there is need for the services of other large models, they should be accessed under partnership agreements with the organizations in which they reside;

b. the ET encountered some unhappiness with the way in which field projects (such as CFC projects and donor-funded projects) are managed by the Division, leading to the view that the Division does not give high priority to such projects. A focal point is needed within the Division for the management of these projects;

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c. a more user friendly and accessible communications and dissemination strategy needs to be developed that reflects the expanded clientele for the data, information and analysis of the Division; and

d. arrangements for the operation and management of the IGGs and the CFC projects need to be examined. One suggestion is that the number of IGGs could be reduced and the membership of the remaining IGGs expanded to include the private sector and other non-official stakeholders. When appropriate, the projects supervised on behalf of the CFC need to be brokered to divisions that have the necessary technical expertise.

6. There is a bright future for the commodities and trade work of FAO but one that will, of necessity, involve more of a partnership approach: partnerships within FAO, partnerships with the private sector, partnerships with government ministries other than agriculture, partnerships with NGOs, partnerships with other agencies maintaining databases, partnerships with other organizations doing related work, and more systematic and less bureaucratic partnerships with the member countries. These partnerships will flourish only if more aggressive FAO incentives are in place to generate internal and external cooperation. Partnerships and the incentives to manage them deserve careful and immediate attention.

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I. INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT

1. The growing globalisation of agricultural production and trade and its direct and indirect effects on poverty and food security have given FAO's work on commodities and international trade new significance. Traditional approaches to market management through controlled internal and external commodity markets have been changing. International trade negotiations, in the context of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and bilateral or regional preferential trade agreements have become central to the agricultural and export economies of many countries. New markets and additional value added in non-traditional agricultural exports have assumed growing importance. Domestic and international agricultural trade policies are increasingly influenced by factors beyond the control of individual countries or groups of countries. The private sector is playing a growing role in setting the trade policy agenda. It is ever more important to have access to information of the right kind at the right time for effective management of countries' trade and domestic commodity market policies.

2. FAO's Commodities and Trade Division (ESC) under its past Programmes 2.2.3 and 2.2.4 (now modified, as detailed in the report) has had an important role in supporting member countries, especially developing countries, with technical assistance, information and capacity building to enhance the functioning of agricultural commodity markets and trade. This support has prepared the countries for more effective participation in international trade negotiations such as at the WTO and regional and bilateral trade agreements.

3. In view of the changing role of commodities and trade for the member countries, in the May 2004 session of the FAO Programme Committee it was requested that this aspect of the Organization's work should be independently evaluated. With the new reform proposals recently tabled by the Director-General and already partly implemented, as well as the ongoing Independent External Evaluation of FAO (to which the current evaluation is a key input), it becomes even more important to clearly identify the role that FAO can and should have in this area.

4. FAO's Programme Evaluations are undertaken to support decision making by the Governing Bodies and management at all levels in order improve the strategic orientation of the Organization's work, strengthen programme and project design, improve cost-effectiveness, and provide accountability to member countries and other stakeholders. The Evaluation has examined the normative work in this area that FAO undertakes at headquarters and in the Regional Offices, as well as carrying out visits to 23 countries in both developed and developing regions to review the issues, needs and impacts of commodities and trade work both within ESC and in the context of the Technical Cooperation Programme (TCP) and the activities of other divisions. The results of the Evaluation are being presented to the FAO Governing Bodies through the Programme Committee at its May 2007 session.

II. SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY OF THE EVALUATION

A. Scope of the Evaluation

5. The Evaluation was mainly concerned with the work of ESC, and in particular ESCD (Divisional Management), ESCB (Basic Foodstuffs Service), ESCP (Commodity Policy and Projections Service) and ESCR (Raw Materials, Tropical and Horticultural Products Service). The Global Information and Early Warning Service (ESCG) has been covered only for those aspects of its work done together with ESCB on global and country-level monitoring of food commodity supplies. Work on trade by other divisions of FAO has been examined where found to be relevant, in particular the commodities and trade work of the Statistics Division, the Policy Assistance Division (especially in the field) and the Agriculture and Development Economics Division. The detailed Terms of Reference of the evaluation can be seen in Annex II of this report.

6. Most of the commodities and trade work of FAO was carried out under seven programme entities (PEs) in two programmes (2.2.3 and 2.2.4) described in the 2004-09 Medium Term Plan

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(MTP 04-09), of which one is a "Technical Project" with a time limit of six years, five are "Continuing Programmes" and one is a Service entity. The Programmes and PEs are listed below:

a) Under Programme 2.2.3: Food and Agriculture Monitoring, Assessments and Outlooks

223P3 (CP) Market Assessments for Basic Food Commodities and Impact on Global Food Security

223P4 (CP) Projections and Global Commodity Market Assessments 223P5 (CP) Market Assessments of Tropical, Horticultural and Raw Material Commodities and

Impact on Food Security 223S1 Technical Support Services to Member Nations and the Field Programme,

including servicing of the Committee on Commodity Problems and the Inter-Governmental Commodity Groups

b) Under Programme 2.2.4: Agriculture, Food Security and Trade Policy

224A2 (TP) Commodity and Trade Policy Support to Developing Countries for Trade Negotiations (Under the proposed Medium Term Plan for 2006-11 (This entity will end in 2005, to be replaced by 224A4: Support for Implementation of Multilateral

Trade Negotiation Outcomes.) 224P4 (CP) Analysis and Consensus-Building on Emerging Commodity and Trade Issues 224P5 (CP) Enhancing Diversification and Competitiveness of Agricultural Commodities

7. The work being reviewed under the two identified programmes, 2.2.3 and 2.2.4, provides a major input to FAO's work on the four Strategic Objectives B1, B2, E1 and E2. In particular, Programme 2.2.4 provides input to Corporate Strategy B: Promoting, developing and reinforcing

policy and regulatory frameworks for food, agriculture, fisheries and forestry. Strategic Objectives of this Strategy include:

B1: International instruments concerning food, agriculture, fisheries and forestry, and the

production, safe use and fair exchange of agricultural, fishery and forestry goods; and

B2: National policies, legal instruments and supporting mechanisms that respond to domestic

requirements and are consistent with the international policy and regulatory framework

8. Programme 2.2.3 provides input to Corporate Strategy E: Improving decision-making through

the provision of information and assessments and fostering of knowledge management for food and

agriculture. Strategic Objectives of this Strategy include:

E1: An integrated information resource base, with current, relevant and reliable statistics,

information and knowledge made accessible to all FAO clients; and

E2: Regular assessments, analyses and outlook studies for food and agriculture.

9. The activities under the selected Programme Entities also address Strategic Objective C1: Policy options and institutional measures to improve efficiency and adaptability in production,

processing and marketing systems, and meet the changing needs of producers and consumers,

10. Programme Entities 224P4 and 224P5 underwent auto-evaluation in 2004 (together with a part of 223S1 - Technical Support Services - which funds commodity group activities). The results of that evaluation were used as input into this independent evaluation.

11. During the course of the Evaluation, the PEs underwent a thorough redesign as part of the FAO reform process currently underway, resulting in a reduction from eight PEs to five. These changes are detailed below in Section IV.C.5.

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B. Evaluation Methodology

12. The evaluation took place in three main stages: i) a headquarters review and initial meeting with the Peer Review Panel on the design of the evaluation; ii) field work and questionnaires in FAO member countries; and iii) the preparation of a synthesis report and the second Panel meeting to finalise the recommendations.

13. The review at FAO Headquarters examined the work of the main technical division responsible for FAO's commodities and trade activities, ESC, and led to preparation of an "Issues Paper" for presentation to an Expert Panel Workshop that was held in early February 2006. The Panel of nine global experts on trade and commodities from different institutions and regions reviewed the proposed approach and direction of the evaluation, and provided detailed guidance on the areas on which the evaluation should focus. The report of this first Expert Panel meeting is attached to this evaluation report as Annex III.

14. Following the workshop, the Evaluation Team carried out its field work, which included the following:

a. Visits to 16 developing countries in four missions to Asia, the Near East and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Africa.1 The selection of countries was based on the need for a cross-section of countries that represented various regions and levels of development and either: a) participate actively in the CCP and its IGGs on commodities; b) have been involved in FAO field activities; c) are particularly important in matters of trade in agricultural commodities (e.g. China, Brazil); or d) have expressed no interest in FAO support in this area (to understand why). The ET spent on average only three days in each country, but extensive preparations prior to arrival in the countries enabled them to meet a wide range of interviewees during this time;

b. Visits to seven major developed countries, including the USA, Japan and several European countries2, as well as the European Commission;

c. Visits to a wide range of institutions working in commodities and trade, including UNCTAD, ITC, IFPRI, World Bank, OECD, WTO, African Union, major commodity organizations and associations, research institutes and universities, and major NGOs.

15. During the country visits, the ET applied country check lists in its meetings with high-level representatives of ministries of agriculture, ministries of trade and commerce, regulatory and customs bodies, major donors and multilateral institutions, private sector associations and major companies, universities, and civil society organizations. Altogether more than 200 people were interviewed face to face by the Team. Discussions focused on country needs and capacity in commodity marketing and regional and international trade, and the extent to which interviewees were aware of and used FAO-produced assistance and outputs, including normative products. Where there were or had recently been projects, the ET also discussed the implementation and follow-up of the project interventions. With FAO's implementing partners (actual or potential), the ET discussed their assessment of country needs, and of the work carried out by FAO in that country or region. Individual working papers were prepared on these visits.

16. Following each field mission, the ET prepared a summary regional report on main findings and recommendations arising from the mission. A separate report was prepared on the meetings with key institutions. These reports formed the background for this final report.

17. As a further means of gathering member country views, the evaluation included a questionnaire survey among FAO member countries to assess their views and suggestions on FAO's role and work in commodities and trade. The questionnaire in Annex VI was sent to almost all FAO

1 The countries visited were: China, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Chile, Brazil, Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Tanzania. 2 The countries visited were Japan, USA, UK, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland.

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member countries. Altogether, 47 out of about 170 countries which received it (28%) sent in 52 completed questionnaires (three countries filled in more than one). The regional breakdown is given in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Responses by region (multiple responses from same country in parentheses)

Africa 12 (+2)

Asia 7 (+3)

Latin America and Caribbean 13

Near East and North Africa 9

OECD countries 6

Total 47 (+5)

18. The evaluation also carried out, with the help of members of the Expert Panel, a peer review of key ESC publications on commodities and trade.

19. The final stage of the evaluation was the preparation of this Synthesis Report bringing together the outcomes of all the above work. The draft conclusions and recommendations of this report were discussed with the same Expert Panel that participated in the design of the evaluation at a second meeting in Rome in July 2006. The ET and the Panel worked closely together to finalize the evaluation conclusions and recommendations during that meeting, and the final version was approved by both.

20. The ET then finalised the evaluation report, after which it was circulated to FAO management for a detailed response. The timetable and phases of the evaluation were as follows:

12-16 Dec 2005 Briefing/orientation of Team Leader in Rome

23 Jan – 3 Feb 2006 Preparation of an Issues and Discussion Paper involving desk studies of HQ-based projects; HQ interviews and group discussions; and review of major publications and analytical work

6 – 8 Feb 2006 3-day Expert Panel Meeting, to assist in identifying issues and approach for the evaluation

Feb-March 2006 • Preparation and mailing of a questionnaires to member countries

• Peer review of Commodities and Trade publications

March-June 2006 • Field missions to 16 developing countries and 7 developed countries;

• Meetings with 25 key international organizations, ICBs, research institutes and NGOs

June-July 2006 Preparation of the draft Synthesis Report, including further discussions with ESC and other staff and management

10 – 12 July 2006 3-day 2nd Expert Panel Meeting with the same Panel of Experts that participated in the evaluation start-up in February. Their input was sought for the formulation of the main evaluation recommendations

March 2007 Finalisation of the Synthesis Report; delivery to Senior Management for preparation of the Management Response

May 2007 Presentation and discussion of the final Evaluation Report and the Management Response to the FAO Programme Committee at its 97th session

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III. DIRECTIONS TO THE EVALUATION TEAM FROM THE EXPERT PANEL

21. At its initial meeting, the Expert Panel provided the Evaluation Team with its views on the issues that should receive attention in the Evaluation. The report of the first Expert Panel meeting is in Annex III to this report. The issues highlighted by the Expert Panel can be summarized as follows:

• Work priorities: stakeholders and comparative advantage

o Commodity monitoring and projections, applied research and policy analysis: identify ESC's clientele and assess their demand for ESC's services (e.g., CCP, IGGs, analytical studies, projections, trade training and policy assistance, etc.); critically evaluate ESC's mandate (e.g. on advice to developing member governments about commodity policy, trade, etc.); define ESC's comparative advantage (is it in provision of short-term commodity information, longer-term commodity analysis, which commodities/countries to focus on, modelling and projections); and examine harmonisation of FAOSTAT and ESC commodity databases.

o CCP and IGGs: evaluate usefulness, structure, etc. of these meetings, and development of better relations with the private sector.

o New and proposed activities: evaluate ESC's role in analysis of commodity risk management, value chains, supply constraints, future trade negotiations and agreements, regional trade agreements, GMOs, and Aid for Trade.

o Publications/Dissemination: which reports to publish and how, and how to improve dissemination of the Division's outputs while reducing cost?

• Management:

o Staffing: structure of incentives, staff motivation, the relevance and impact of the Organization's decentralisation, and use of external consultants.

o Funding: extra-budgetary funds (incentives to raise funds, appropriate level of extra-budgetary funds), avoiding distortion of work programme priorities when extra-budgetary funding is used, and the appropriate compensation for services to CFC projects.

o Divisional organization: Divisional structure and functions, partnerships, inter-divisional collaboration in analysis and data collection, and avoidance of unnecessary duplication of work across divisions.

22. The Chairperson of the Expert Panel noted that issues regarding the programme of activities should be considered first and then the consequences for management discussed. Regarding the former, he stressed the need to sharpen the definition of the work on commodities, in particular to select which commodities to focus on and for whom. In addition, there was a need to explore potential partnerships with other institutions for work on commodities, bearing in mind the need to maintain FAO's role and reputation as an "honest broker".

23. Regarding trade issues, the Expert Panel suggested that a considerable amount of work had already been undertaken by the Division and there was significant evidence that it was highly valued by some stakeholders. While assistance would continue to be required in the negotiating phases of the current WTO Round, it could be necessary if the round succeeded to devote much attention in future years to the "post-Doha agenda". This would require work on implementation of the future multilateral agreement and also on the increasingly important and numerous regional and bilateral trade agreements. But most importantly, there was likely to be a huge agenda for developing countries to take advantage of the improved market access opportunities expected from the Doha Round should it succeed, or from a further round of negotiations. These countries often face major supply constraints that will need to be overcome. The set of issues involved is much broader than those that fall solely within the mandate and competencies of ESC. Thus, defining the appropriate role of the

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Division in this area and fostering the necessary and increased collaboration across divisions will be a great challenge. The same remarks are applicable to the welcome increase in analysis of value chains.

24. Regarding the Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP), the inter-governmental commodity groups (IGGs) and the CFC, the Chairman noted that they should be examined in the context of an assessment of the demand for the services of the Division. The Panel recommended that the ET rely on past evaluations of these institutional mechanisms but that it probe further in its country visits. In this respect it urged the Team to contact a broad range of stakeholders. This would also help the Team to make recommendations on the Division's publications and dissemination strategy - an important component of its mission.

25. On management issues, the Chairman noted that the Evaluation would have to draw a fine line between systemic issues at the FAO-wide level and those that can be addressed at Division level. Recommendations on the latter will be most pertinent but the identification of the inefficiencies and bottlenecks caused by Organization-level constraints can also be useful. The Panel recommended that the ET reflect on the impact of external funding on staff incentives and, conversely, on the impact of existing incentives on the mobilization of extra-budgetary funding. Finally, the issue of incentives will be critical to the examination of the obstacles to closer collaboration among units and individual staff within the Division and across divisions in FAO. The Panel emphasized that collaboration will become more critical in the future because the new agenda will be more complex and because such collaboration will be needed to enhance the ability of the Division to respond to new issues.

IV. OVERVIEW OF FAO'S ACTIVITIES IN COMMODITIES AND TRADE

A. Understanding the Evolving Global Context for Trade and International Commodity

Markets

26. Several changes have occurred, are occurring, or are about to occur in the national and international environments in which these FAO activities operate. These changes have significant implications for the evaluation and for the recommendations. These changes in the circumstances in which ESC and related divisions operate (and will operate), and some of the questions they raise, are described briefly below.

27. Private Sector Dominance in Trade: Trade in agricultural commodities in developing and developed economies is now mostly conducted by the private sector. This situation is very different from only 10-15 years ago when much of the national and international trade in commodities in developing countries was conducted by governments. The possibilities for governments to absorb the risks of commodity price fluctuations on behalf of producers have been greatly reduced. Private traders tend to pass price fluctuations directly to the producer. There is now a different role for government: the provision of important regulatory functions. As the private sector is doing the trading, it has become more involved in trade policy. It also means that the source of useful trade statistics in many cases is no longer the agricultural ministry and country statistics offices to which FAO has traditionally gone for such information. A much wider and more country-specific network may be required to generate the critical trade statistics describing the activities of the private sector.

28. Value or Supply Chains - Integrated Marketing: The integrated marketing strategies of the private sector are growing in importance. Supply chains connecting producers and consumers, or value chains, are forming a growing part of the trade among countries. There is considerable concern in developing countries that smallholder farmers are not participating effectively in these networks because of the high transaction costs of including them and that sufficient jobs are not being created. These changes raise important questions for commodities and trade analysis undertaken by FAO.

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29. Multinational Companies: Many of the private companies involved in trade and in integrated marketing networks are multinationals. For example, the major retailers in developed countries are gaining access to commodities at their source and have developed capacities to bring them to the shelves of their stores in qualities, packaging and sizes that meet consumer demands. The marketing of the commodities is highly integrated, from planning production to transportation to processing to delivery to the stores.

30. Certification and Standards: The issues of standards and the certification and conformity to them are becoming more important in trade and in access to markets in developed countries. Most developing countries have at best a limited capacity to assure that their products meet these standards and to certify that the products are compliant with standards that may be imposed by trade partners.

31. Commodity Risk Management: With the dismantling of national commodity marketing boards and the cessation of international commodity price stabilisation schemes, the extent of government intervention at national and international level in commodity marketing has been substantially reduced. One consequence of this change has been that commodity price risk in developing countries has been shifted from national governments and intergovernmental bodies back to producers and private marketing entities. As a result, since the early 1990s there has been substantial analysis in UNCTAD, the World Bank, and more recently FAO, on the use of mechanisms such as financial derivatives for managing the commodity price risk of governments and producers and traders. Financial market mechanisms (crop insurance) for managing production risk are also being tried.

32. Preferential Bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements: Many of the most important negotiations on trade policy are not being undertaken within the WTO context. Bilateral and regional preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have become important for many of the developing countries. Here again the private sector is often an important driving force in the agreements. The agricultural ministries have little to offer in terms of negotiating or managing their implementation. They are often managed within the ministries of trade or commerce with little information about their implications for agriculture and the producers. The ET found that in many cases bilateral and regional trade agreements are perceived as of more immediate importance to the country or at least a part of the agricultural sector, than is the completion or implementation of the WTO agreement.

33. Institutional Locus of Decision-Making for Trade: In a number of the countries visited, the agricultural ministries with which FAO traditionally works are mainly production-focussed and have little involvement in marketing and international trade issues. While several of them did have more or less important consultative roles on agricultural trade, the locus of trade policy decisions and negotiation responsibility is usually with the ministries of trade, commerce, finance, or international relations. These ministries often have limited experience in agriculture or with agricultural products. Furthermore, in the poorer countries these trade, commerce, international relations and economics ministries often have young staff, inexperienced and unfamiliar with agricultural institutions or production methods. To further complicate matters, the ministries in charge of trade policy were found in several cases to have limited contact with private traders, the entities most involved in trade. The result is that agricultural trade decisions are often made without good understanding of the sector or the traders.

B. Evolution of FAO's Work in Commodities and Trade

34. FAO was established in 1945 and in 1949 became the first organization in the UN system to set up a "Commodity Division" (later the "Commodities and Trade Division", or ESC). The international context was dominated by post-war debates on emergency reserves, use of commodity surpluses, and international (particularly commodity) agreements. In this context the Division initiated global commodity activities, including economic analysis on a commodity by commodity basis, production of the first set of global commodity projections, international agreements such as the Principles of Surplus Disposal and the sisal and tea quota arrangements, and the establishment of intergovernmental commodity bodies. Following the world food crisis of the early 1970s, the

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Commodities and Trade Division undertook responsibility for the operation of the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), which was established in 1975.

35. During the restructuring of FAO in the mid-1990s, part of the food security function was taken from ESC and placed in the Agriculture and Development Economics Division (ESA) and, in a general sense, the division of labour between these two divisions was drawn at the national border: very roughly, studies of the economics of international markets and trade were the domain of ESC, while in-country economic issues relating to commodity production and markets (including basic commodities and food security) were under ESA.

36. FAO also has other units involved in marketing and trade. Technical support to in-country marketing is handled by a small group in the Agricultural Services Division (AGS). For fisheries and forestry, marketing and trade issues are handled by the respective departments. FAO's work on food safety and standards for trade and phytosanitary standards for trade is also handled by separate divisions.

37. In the area of commodity market intelligence, in addition to FAO there was the World Bank until the late 1990s which undertook much of the analysis of commodity markets of importance to developing countries and made short- and long-term projections of prices, production, consumption and trade for these commodities. However when the World Bank considerably reduced its activity in this area, FAO (through ESC) became the only international organization undertaking such analysis.

38. With the move away from controlled commodity markets and government commodity trading in the 1980s and 1990s, the purpose and functions of FAO's Commodities and Trade Division needed to change. The FAO Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP) and its commodity-specific Inter-Governmental Groups (IGGs) were originally created and functioned as meeting places for government officials to receive and discuss information relevant to government intervention mainly directed at stabilizing prices and incomes. As the possibility of major government intervention disappeared, FAO has had to review its basic functions and roles, and take on more policy analysis and policy advisory roles. This evolution is still underway and is subject to widely differing demands and perceptions on the part of FAO members.

C. The Commodities and Trade Division

1. Programme Design, 'Old' Divisional Organization and Working Arrangements

39. Currently, ESC is primarily focused on agricultural commodity markets and trade, related problems and policies that affect the livelihoods of agricultural producers, and the food security of FAO member countries. It also generates early warnings of food shortages and crises. ESC is currently the largest and most significant international entity with a focus on the commodity market and trade dimensions of agriculture and food issues, placing particular emphasis on those commodities of importance to developing countries. It is also the only international entity that, on a regular basis, informs the world about impending food shortages, especially in poor and vulnerable countries.

40. In addition to the Director's office (1 Director and 5 administrative staff), the Division was composed of four Services at the time of the evaluation, as follows:

• ESCB - the Basic Foodstuffs Service (11 Professional staff, 10 General Service staff, including statistical clerks) - monitoring and analysing international markets for grains, livestock products, oil crops and meals, and roots and tubers

• ESCP - Commodity Policy and Projections Service (9 Professional staff, 3 General Service staff) - trade and commodity policy analysis, support for trade negotiations and agreements, and projections of world commodity markets

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• ESCR - Raw Materials, Tropical and Horticultural Products Service (10 Professional staff, 7 General Service staff) - monitoring and analysing international markets for 'non-traditional' commodities, including most of the major developing country exports (e.g., sugar, cotton, tea, coffee, cocoa, bananas and other tropical fruit, citrus, vegetables, and hard fibres)

• ESCG - Global Information and Early Warning Service (11 Professional staff, 8 General Service staff) - keeps the world food supply and demand situation under continuous review, tracks impending shortages and food crises, publishes regular bulletins on the world food situation (N.B.: ESCG is not within the terms of reference of this evaluation, although a few comments are made on its work as it relates to the other work of ESC)

41. With the recent budget reductions and the ongoing reform process in FAO, ESC now has one less Service Chief level post (D-1), leaving three Service Chiefs. As a result, the Division is undergoing a restructuring exercise, which includes some shifting of responsibilities and change in focus, as detailed in sub-section 4 on restructuring, below.

2. Mandate

42. The mandate of the Division is determined with the guidance of the CCP. Prior to the recent restructuring exercise, the mandate included the following functions:

• Maintaining a constant watch on the world market situation and outlook for all main agricultural commodities;

• servicing the arrangements for food security and early warning of food shortfalls and operation of the GIEWS;

• servicing the CCP and the IGGs; • identifying commodity problems and proposing actions to mitigate them; • providing commodity and trade policy analysis and support to developing countries for trade

negotiations; • advising individual developing countries on formulating and implementing their national

commodity policies; • providing a comprehensive information and intelligence service on agricultural commodities

and monitoring continuously the world supply/demand outlook for basic foods; and • providing support for FAO's programme of work on world food security analysis.

3. ESC's Main Capacities and Core Outputs in Commodities and Trade Work

43. FAO currently houses the world's largest international body of staff devoted to studying global agricultural commodity markets and trade. While others (the World Bank in particular) have had strong capacity in this area in the past, most have greatly diminished their attention in recent years. FAO's expertise spans most commodities and all geographic areas and consequently involves experience in the evaluation of most types of commodity problems and policy efforts to address them.

44. ESC has a wide range of technical experts from all regions, with an extended network of international contacts. These experts are supported by a solid group of experienced staff working on data, information management, and print and electronic publications. As part of its major role in collecting and storing agriculture and food data, FAO houses unique commodity databases. Unlike other sources of commodity information, FAO focuses on developing countries and therefore is often the only source of information for a particular region or country, or for a particular 'minor' commodity. FAO's commodities and trade work also benefit from being in a large organization with a great diversity of expertise.

45. ESC's core outputs fall into four categories:

1. data management, analysis and modelling related to international trade in agricultural commodities

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2. global and regional meetings for discussion of policy issues in commodity trade, in particular the FAO Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP) and its Inter-Governmental Commodity Groups (IGGs), as well as other supporting consultations, workshops, seminars and conferences

3. publications of various types, including periodicals, studies, policy papers and global assessments

4. direct technical assistance to FAO member countries, in the areas of trade policy, commodity markets and strengthening of production.

46. Under its data and publications activities, the Division is responsible for the following publications and documents:

• Food Outlook (4 per year, in five languages - recently reduced to 2 per year) • Food Crops and Shortages (3 per year, in four languages) • Food Supply Situation and Crop Prospects in sub-Saharan Africa (3 per year, in two

languages) • Sahel Weather and Crop Situation (6 per year, in two languages) • FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessments (ad-hoc, 25-30 per year) • Review of Basis Food Policies (one per year) • Commodity Market Review (one per biennium) • State of World Commodity Markets (one per biennium) • Medium Term Projections (annual) • Publications such as working papers, studies and briefs on particular commodity issues,

including trade policy, trade negotiations, and food security • Electronic commodity notes on the Internet.

47. The Division's responsibility for meetings, consultations and conferences includes servicing the following:

• The Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP - a committee of the FAO Council; meets biennially)

• Eight Inter-Governmental Commodity Groups and four Sub-Groups3 (IGGs - tied to the CCP; scheduled to meet biennially, actually meeting somewhat less)

• Ad hoc consultations and conferences on trade policy and commodity market issues • Consultations and conferences on specific commodities • Consultations and technical meetings on assessments of needs and appropriate responses for

countries in crisis.

4. Restructuring of ESC Under the Ongoing FAO Reform Process

48. ESC has cut down from four Services to three. The Division is being renamed the Trade and

Markets Division, abbreviated EST. It will be divided into the Services listed below. Within each of the new Services there are two to three working groups. While the old structure was still current during the work of the ET, the new structure of the Division is given below, with key publications placed with the groups to better identify what they will be doing.

49. The ET has examined this new structure and supports it. The ET noted that the regular publications have decreased both in frequency and in number. The major reductions will be in the publications related to Food Crops and Shortages, Food Supply Situation and Crop Prospects in sub-

3 The IGGs are Rice; Grains; Jute, Kenaf and Allied Fibres; Oilseeds, Oils and Fats; Bananas and Tropical Fruits; Hard Fibres; Tea; and Meat and Dairy Products. The Sub-Groups are Sisal and Henequen; Tropical Fruit; Bananas; Citrus; and Hides and Skins.

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Saharan Africa, and Sahel Weather and Crop Situation. Where possible these publications will be replaced by electronic notes.

50. ESTD: Division Direction: This is the divisional management unit (not a Service) and comprises the Division Director and administrative staff.

51. ESTM: Commodity Markets, Policy Analysis and Projections Service: Includes all of the former ESCB and parts of ESCR and will assemble and analyze commodity market information and provide projections using the COSIMO model, as well as manage the special ESC databases. It will also supply the secretariat for the CCP and IGGs and supervision for the CFC projects.

Market Assessments and Analysis of Basic Foods Group (including IGG and CFC activities)

• Global Food Outlook (published two times per year instead of four, in five languages) • Shared Responsibility for the Commodity Market Review (annual) • State of the World Commodity Markets (annual) • Commodity Analysis Reports

Market Assessments and Analysis of Raw Materials, Tropical and Horticultural Products Group

(including IGG and CFC activities)

• Global Food Outlook (published two times per year instead of four, in five languages) • Commodity Market Review (annual) • State of the World Commodity Markets (annual) • Commodity Analysis Reports

Market Analysis and Projections Group

• COSIMO outlook, medium term projections (annual, in three languages) • Agricultural Policy Indicators • Electronic Commodity Analysis and Policy Notes

52. ESTT: Trade Policy Service: combines components of the current ESCR with ESCP. Major activities will include cross-cutting and cross-country analyses on trade and commodities policies, from global trade analysis to value chains. It will continue the work on WTO negotiations and implementation, and on bilateral and regional trade agreements.

Trade and Development Group

• Publications on Country, Regional and Global Analysis of Trade and Development • Publications on Linkages between Domestic and International Markets • Publications on Country, Regional and Global Analysis of Food Security

Trade Agreements Group (Multilateral and Regional)

• Publications on WTO, Negotiations and Implementation • Publications on Bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements

Emerging Commodity and Trade Issues Group

• Publications on Commodity Supply or Value Chains • Publications on Commodity Risk Management • Publications on Emerging Trade and Commodity Market Issues

53. ESTG: Global Information and Early Warning System: This Service, which is not part of the present evaluation, will operate as before, providing early warning and analysis of food crises and expanding its analysis of FAOSTAT data, including analysis of food crises, weather risks, and related impacts on commodity markets and trade.

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5. Changes to the ESC Programme Entities Under the Reform

54. ESC management has embraced the reform process as an opportunity for major changes in the work programme of the Division. These changes have already been drawn up and approved within FAO, including the reduction from four Services to three and redesigning of the Programme Entities to reduce them from eight to five. Tables 2 and 3 below give the previous and new entities, with a description of how they were rearranged.

Table 2: Programme Entity breakdown in 2004-05 Previous

Prog. Entity Title

2.2.3.P3 Market Assessments for Basic Food Commodities and Impact on Global Food Security

2.2.3.P4 Projections and Global Commodity Market Assessments

2.2.3.P5 Market Assessments of Tropical, Horticultural and Raw Material Commodities and Impact on Food Security

2.2.3.S1 Technical Support Services to Member Nations and the Field Programme

2.2.4.A2 Commodity and Trade Policy Support to Developing Countries for Trade Negotiations

2.2.4.P4 Analysis and Consensus-Building on Emerging Commodity and Trade Issues

2.2.4.P5 Enhancing Diversification and Competitiveness of Agricultural Commodities

Table 3: New Programme Entities under the Revised PWB 2006-07 New

Entity New Programme Entity Title From old Programme Entities

3CA02 Support to the Multilateral Trade Negotiations and support for Implementation of Multi-Lateral Trade Negotiations

Negotiations related activities from 224A2 and 224P4

3CP06 Global socioeconomic analysis and market assessment of agricultural products and impact on food security

Monitoring, analysis and projection activities from 223P3, 223P4, 223P5, 224P4

3CP07 Analysis of globalization and trade issues relevant to agricultural markets

Trade policy related activities from 223P3, 223P4, 223P5, 224P4

3CP08 Support to CCP CCP, IGG and related activities from 223S1 and 224P4

3CS01 Technical Support Services to Members and the Field Programme

Field activities from 223S1 and 224P5 (mainly CFC type work)

55. As described in the new Programme of Work and Budget, Programme 3C covers FAO's ongoing trade and commodity market analysis work, contributing to better commodity policy and trade strategies compatible with members' development objectives.

56. The programme also supports policies for diversification and value-addition in both domestic and export markets. Analyses are also carried out on national and international food supply and demand, commodity market developments in support of GIEWS, and trade issues in terms of their impact on national and household food security. With respect to international agricultural trade policy, the programme will include: analyses, technical assistance to countries, and capacity-building to support effective participation in international trade negotiations and implementation of multilateral trade arrangements.

57. Entity 3CP06 also addresses global and regional assessments of the livestock sector and livestock commodities to guide priorities in development, research and investment; while entity 3CP07 deals with transboundary animal diseases and food safety hazards in value or supply chains, the costs and economic impacts of animal diseases and of their control, and standards and certification.

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D. Other FAO Divisions Doing Related Work

1. Agriculture and Development Economics Division (ESA)

58. ESA works mostly within countries and on many topics that do not directly relate to commodities and trade. However, there are three areas where there is possible overlap with ESC: food security, integrated marketing strategies and value chains, and trade and development. FAO's food security analysis work is presently split between the divisions in an almost ad hoc way. ESC undertakes the early warning analysis (GIEWS) while ESA (particularly its Food Security and Agricultural Projects Analysis Service) works on other aspects of food security information and undertakes analysis of factors for securing national and local food security. It emerged clearly from the interviews in the field and at headquarters that these two groups do not work particularly well together. It is important to investigate and resolve this organizational issue.

59. In the integrated marketing area there are a variety of places where the two divisions must coordinate. Supply or value chains depend upon the development of different producer organizations in order to succeed. These organizations may involve arrangements for smallholders that are not the same as for larger farmers. Standards and certification are also an important part of integrated marketing systems. How these standards are determined and how they impact on farming communities are important issues that fall in the grey area between the two divisions. As long as the two divisions remain separate, the answer to good coordination is closer communication, not just in the day-to-day work but in planning and development as well. Perhaps - and as subsequently recommended for ESC - ESA should select areas of emphasis or themes for their work. With such information available to the two divisions, coordination could be much improved.

60. The third area in which there could be significant overlap is trade and development. This area of work encompasses a large number of issues that are important to the growth and development of less developed countries. Some of these relate to the agricultural supply response to the liberalisation of trading regimes. There are many complicated supply constraints in areas such as finance, land tenure, institutions and culture, agricultural policy, and risk management that come into play. In order to have greatly improved supply response, it is important to understand what the restrictions are and to develop policies and institutions to alleviate them. This work should be central to the missions of both divisions. The ET considers that agricultural supply constraints are one of the major limitations to development in many developing countries. However, trade and development issues do not stop at problems on the supply side of markets. There is also the important issue of the appropriate role for government. Again, short of some combination of the two divisions, there is opportunity in this area to cooperate through developing themes and coordination in planning and strategy development. The ET recommends much better coordination between the two divisions, or consideration of more serious restructuring.

2. Policy Assistance Division (TCA)

61. TCA was once a part of ESA, in the same department as the Commodities and Trade Division. TCA regards itself as an FAO extension service for policy advice and training, adapting the normative work of the Organization to countries and regions, and responding to the policy issues raised by them. TCA has had a significant amount of field activity over recent years in the area of training on trade policy issues, mainly regarding the outcomes of the Uruguay Round and their implementation, and on negotiating skills for participation in WTO trade negotiations. Overall during the period 2000-06, TCA has implemented four donor-funded regional and global training programmes directly related to trade negotiations, as well as two TCP-funded programmes. In all, these TCA projects have amounted to about US$ 1.65 million and have covered most developing regions of the world.

62. TCA is involved in a gradual reorganization as positions open up, endeavouring to hire specialists in policy areas that resonate with the countries and regions instead of the 'generalists' that presently make up most of its staff. The first such specialists to be hired are trade economists, as trade policy is reportedly at the top of the list in terms of requests for advice from all regions. ET contacts

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with TCA units in FAO Regional Offices indicated that there are opportunities to obtain support for projects that they develop. This presents an opportunity for partnerships in acquiring extra-budgetary resources by jointly developing projects between ESC and TCA field offices.

63. The ET met with the Director and staff of TCA to discuss the coordination of policy work between the field and headquarters. TCA, like ESC, is concerned about the need for better cooperation between the two divisions (and other divisions involved in policy). There is recognition on both sides that divisions do not cooperate effectively. One obstacle is lack of appropriate incentives to encourage cooperation, a problem that has not been addressed by the Organization. Another is poor communication, which may be improved with the hiring of specialists by TCA.

64. Another possible reason for the lack of effective cooperation is that ESC has not developed clearly identified areas of specialization in trade. This problem may be reduced by this evaluation’s recommendation on selecting research themes. If ESC, in collaboration with the trade economists from TCA, develops a set of research themes that anticipates the demands from the field, perhaps there will be better cooperation. Economists from the two divisions could cooperate in analysis of issues arising within these themes, and yet have sufficient flexibility to work on other issues brought to their attention by member countries - a form of partial cooperation with both sides knowing the specific areas in which they could expect cooperation.

65. During the field visits and in the new reform documents of FAO there was talk of merging the two divisions in some form. The ET does not recommend merger with ESC. Among the reasons is that TCA intends to have policy specialists in several other areas besides trade. Separation of TCA from the Economic and Social Department which is now the locus of most policy work should however be examined and instead of merging, TCA will have to develop arrangements that will generate closer working relationships with other technical divisions.

66. In summary, regarding incentives and collaboration: first, ESC should define themes for its research, making it easier for the regional specialists in TCA to know where they can obtain effective support for their work. Second, ESC could involve the trade economists in TCA in the selection of these themes, providing joint ownership. Third, ESC could involve TCA trade economists in the projects that they supervise for the Common Fund for Commodities (CFC), perhaps even assigning supervision responsibilities to them (with resource reallocation as appropriate). Finally, the trade economists in both divisions could work together to identify and secure donor funding for projects that are of common interest.

67. The FAO Liaison Office in Geneva also has one senior professional working in support of developing countries in understanding implications for their trade negotiations. The ET found his work was highly appreciated by the developing country groups working in the WTO. He draws upon ESC for some analytical support, but here also relations could be improved.

3. Statistics Division (ESS)

68. During interviews in member countries, FAO's databases were frequently mentioned as key to commodity and trade policy. Many of the countries and organizations had difficulties using FAOSTAT. Generally, they used and appreciated the data provided but at the same time thought that there should be concerted efforts to improve the data and access. These improvements could follow two approaches. First, FAO could do more to assist the national statistics offices of its developing country members (preferably not agricultural statistics units in ministries of agriculture) in collecting and preparing the data. Efforts are reportedly already underway in this area.

69. Second, FAO could improve the data by looking to other sources to verify and add to it. GIS and remote sensing were mentioned as technologies that might be used more fully. There are other data sources that could be used to verify FAO data. All people interviewed liked what they knew of the plans for the new design for the FAOSTAT system and the more easily accessible Web site. (Note - Links between FAOSTAT and search engines such as EARTH LINK of the World Resources Institute and Google will make the FAOSTAT data more accessible.)

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70. ESS is implementing a plan to improve the quality and timeliness of FAOSTAT. This plan appears excellent but will need a substantial increase in resources in order to put it into effect quickly - which is what is needed. If the plan is fully implemented, FAOSTAT will have statistics that are at most one year old, increasing the time of availability by about two years. It will have three sets of statistics, instead of one. The first will be a compilation of the statistics reported by member countries. There will be two additional sets of statistics: one with the gaps filled in the country data, the other with adjustments to country data made after cross-checking with other sources. In addition, FAOSTAT is assembling other data sets that will be used to verify the FAO statistics. There are a number of these and, if the FAOSTAT is to continue to be the home of the most complete database on agricultural and food statistics, they will have to be used extensively to verify FAO statistics.

71. The ET is convinced that the global databases provided by FAOSTAT on food production and availability are one of the most important activities of FAO. It is most unfortunate that the quality of the FAOSTAT data has been allowed to deteriorate over the past two decades. Therefore, the work that has been carried out in recent years to improve data quality is most encouraging. However, more resources should be provided to this activity on a sustainable basis.

72. An interesting question is whether these more current and more comprehensive statistics can reduce the burden on ESC in assembling and distributing commodity information. The ET believes that there could be a reduction in the requests for commodity information when the improved datasets become available, relieving the commodity analysts of some of the work of collecting and managing special data sets. Also, training could be provided to countries in use of the data.

4. The Global Perspectives Studies Unit

73. The Global Perspective Studies Unit was merged into ESA at the beginning of 2007. It is rather small, with only four professionals. Nonetheless, it has a major responsibility: developing long-term outlooks for the world agricultural and food systems. The Unit looks for major issues that will be the focus of agricultural and food systems policy more than 20 years in the future. Starting with projections on population and technology, the unit factors in issues such as changes in incomes and population dynamics, e.g. population aging and the alterations in diets that these changes may imply. The process is eclectic, with the staff in ESC making suggestions about the evolution of commodity markets. With the recommended emphasis on longer-term commodity market analysis, ESC may be better able to assist in developing these long-term outlooks.

74. One possible area for joint work with ESC is the future of bio-fuels and energy and materials produced from agricultural products, and the possibility of a global economy dependent upon agricultural energy inputs instead of petroleum. Such a prospect could radically change the world agricultural and food economy. Another possible area for collaboration is analysis of the long-term implications for agriculture of continued rapid growth in the Chinese and Indian economies.

E. Interaction with Other Institutions Working in Commodities and Trade

75. Several other international organizations undertake analysis of commodity markets and the international trade in agricultural products. These can be either competitors (e.g. for donor funding) or partners, and sometimes both at different times. In the area of trade policy analysis and advice, a diversity of research institutions is active, including UN system organizations such as UNCTAD, the UN Regional Economic Commissions, and the World Bank, as well as OECD, many large universities, institutes such as IFPRI and ODI (the UK Overseas Development Institute), and the WTO itself. In the area of commodity market information and prospects analysis, the most frequently cited alternative source (often rated better) was the USDA. OECD also provides such information and analysis, as do several of the International Commodity Bodies (ICBs) and universities, as well as private sector companies (who do so for a price). In the area of technical assistance to develop production, processing and marketing of export commodities, the ITC is very active, and several of the ICBs have begun providing assistance in project formulation and preparation of programmes in their particular commodities, generally under the umbrella of the CFC.

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76. FAO's work in commodities and trade brings it into more or less direct contact with a wide range of these institutions. The ET was able to meet with over 25 of them in various parts of the world, some of which are already partnering with the Division and others that are potential partners.

1. International Commodity Bodies (ICBs)

77. ICBs are heavily involved in data collection and analysis of commodity production and trade, as well as in other aspects of the agricultural policy work of ESC and related divisions. The ICBs met by the ET included the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), and the International Grains Council (IGC), as well as the funding institution for ICBs, the CFC. All of these organizations expressed a desire for a closer affiliation with FAO and with ESC and related divisions. Some have in fact negotiated memoranda of understanding (MOU) with FAO or are doing so: for example, a MOU is in place with ICO, and the IGC and FAO are discussing a MOU as the basis for working together on the collection of grains and oil seeds prices. Others have long standing relationships, as is the case with the CFC. The ICCO said that it was somewhat wary of a closer association with FAO because it was fearful of being taken over by the larger body. The difference in the approach to cooperation with FAO between the ICO and the ICCO is marked, with the ICO being very keen on cooperation. The difference may result from the fact that the members of the ICO are countries, while the members of the ICCO are firms.

78. One place where these cooperative efforts could yield value to both organizations would be in commodity outlook activities. The ICBs have good understanding of the short-run behaviour of commodity markets. Developing a cooperative arrangement, with the ICBs supplying most of the information and analysis of the short-run behaviour of commodity markets and ESC supplying longer-run information and analysis, could improve the flow of information to member countries and reduce the resources devoted to commodity analysis in ESC, particularly to short-run analysis.

79. Most of the ICBs are now essentially development agencies rather than acting in their previous function of price stabilization agencies. The preferred way to intervene to manage commodity price risk or the impact of price instability is now through the application of some type of risk management tool. The ICBs would like to see the private sector involved in this activity - directly. FAO could play an important role in involving the ICBs, the private sector, and the producer organizations in risk management. This is true for both imports and exports of developing nations and for production and price risks. The ICBs are ready, but it will take an organization like FAO to catalyze involvement and help develop the mechanisms on the producer side to make this type of risk management function effective.

80. The CFC has a long term relationship with ESC. The CFC acts as a source of funding for projects sponsored by the ICBs for a variety of commodities of importance to developing countries, and several of the FAO IGGs have been designated as the ICB for their commodity where an independent ICB does not exist for that commodity. Projects funded by the CFC are proposed through the ICBs/IGGs and then supervised, in the case of the IGG commodities, by ESC. The Division also has a role in the development of proposals put to the CFC for funding and in involving FAO technical staff in the development of proposals and in project supervision where this is necessary - although at CFC headquarters the ET heard complaints that the supervision was not being done sufficiently nor making efficient use of FAO technical resources. The CFC recognizes that the private sector is more important in trade and commodity issues than in the past. They indicated to the ET that they would welcome private sector involvement in the projects that they sponsor, and encouraged FAO to make arrangements for their participation as full members of the project determination, funding and management process.

2. Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs)

81. The international NGOs met by the ET (Oxfam, South Centre, IFAP and CSA) have high respect for FAO, and indicated that they felt this was generally the case among development NGOs. These organizations are increasingly influential in the development assistance provided by the

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developed countries. NGOs have an important advocacy role in the formation of development policy and in developed country assistance decisions. This is both an opportunity for and a challenge to FAO. However, currently recognition of NGOs is limited.

3. Other Inter-governmental Organizations (IGOs)

82. Organizations such as IFPRI, the World Bank, OECD, WTO and UNCTAD were also visited by the ET. The commodity market analysis functions of the World Bank, UNCTAD, the OECD, and IMF have been substantially reduced, especially those of the World Bank, which devoted considerable resources to short- and long-term commodity market prospects analysis until the mid-1990s. Now, only three staff work directly in this area; although there are staff in other areas of the World Bank researching commodity trade and risk management issues.

83. The analytical work programmes of UNCTAD and ESC look very similar in terms of topics covered and both are engaged in similar kinds of training. When questioned, UNCTAD staff said that there was no unnecessary duplication. As they saw it, UNCTAD analysis is more region and policy oriented, while ESC's work is more country and implementation oriented. This categorisation of the two organizations' work programmes does not appear to the ET to be a fair assessment, especially given the comments from the in-country discussions to the effect that they would like to see much more country- and region-specific analysis from ESC. While there is some similarity in the work programmes of UNCTAD and ESC with respect to work in areas such as trade policy analysis and commodity risk analysis, and training in these areas, UNCTAD’s commodity market and trade analysis is very limited. As noted elsewhere in this report, FAO/ESC is the only international organization capable of undertaking this analysis at the level of commodity/country coverage needed for the kinds of analysis now carried out within the COSIMO model. The main difference between the analyses of the two organizations is that FAO/ESC limits its work to trade in agricultural commodities, while UNCTAD is more general and gives greater focus to trade in non-agricultural goods, as well as having a stronger developing country bias. The origins of the two organizations are probably largely responsible for this difference. In the interest of a better allocation of resources it would appear that there is at least scope for rationalisation of the workloads of the two bodies.

84. Here again there are opportunities for partnerships. The obvious partnerships are already underway. For example, the forecasting work of OECD and FAO is a natural partnership and one that should be expanded. The development of short-term outlook analysis with the ICBs is another example. IFPRI may well be interested in joining such partnerships, as would the World Bank.

85. As already mentioned, the potential for cooperation with UNCTAD and ITC is through the development of themes for the work of ESC. By making decisions on areas of responsibility and collaboration, the organizations could work together much more efficiently. Also, there would be increased possibilities for attracting donor funds to accomplish the joint work.

4. Regional Economic Bodies

86. The ET also met with several regional economic institutions, including IICA, ECLAC, ECA, AU, UEMOA, and the Caribbean Regional Negotiating Machinery (CRNM) of CARICOM. There was a disappointingly low level of collaboration between IICA and FAO in Chile, even though both are working on many of the same trade issues (e.g., commodity risk management, technical barriers to trade, WTO/PTA interrelationships, and involvement of small farmers in commodity marketing chains). By contrast, in the Caribbean the relationship between the two organizations was very close, with meetings held twice a year. The difference may be due to the different levels of involvement of the country offices. The CRNM said that they had received excellent assistance from ESC in the provision of training in trade policy analysis and in assisting countries in the Caribbean region in developing their strategies for negotiating trade agreements. UEMOA in West Africa was also benefiting from direct interaction with ESC in the context of a regional project on harmonising trade legislation.

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5. Academic institutions

87. The ET met with academics (members of universities and research institutes) in several of the countries visited. Most recognized the limitations of their ministries of agriculture in marketing and trade. They were also well informed about the increasing role of the private sector in commodity trade. Perhaps academics could be an increasing source of analytical capability and data gathering (from unusual places and agencies as well as the private sector), until the agricultural ministries can make the necessary adjustments. Some pilot programmes might be tried, with FAO sanctioning the activities and being a part of them, as well as the ministries. It could be a way of preparing the agricultural ministries for the changed environment in which they are operating.

F. Regular Programme Resources

1. Diminishing Human Resources

88. Table 4 below indicates the trend of diminishing staff resources in ESC (a trend taking place throughout FAO). Unfortunately, for reasons related to personnel policies of the Organization, posts are generally eliminated inefficiently by abolishing those vacated through retirement.

Table 4: Evolution of ESC posts by service 2003-2006

Posts in 2003

Professionals Gen. Service Total

ESCB 13 12 25

ESCR 11 10 21

ESCP 9 4 13

ESCG 12 8 20

ESCD 1 6 7

Outposted 1 - 1

Total 47 40 87 Current Post Distribution (mid-2006)

ESCB 11 10 21

ESCR 10 7 17

ESCP 9 3 12

ESCG 11 8 19

ESCD 1 5 6

Outposted 1 - 1

Total 43 33 76 Expected distribution of posts under the new Services

ESTM 16 12 28

ESTT 12 4 16

ESTG (no change) 11 8 19

ESTD (no change) 1 5 6

Outposted 2 - 2

Total 42 29 71

89. In the current 2006-07 biennium, the Programme of Work and Budget had reduced the number of posts by 11, and under the restructuring proposal outlined below (Sec. IV.C.4) another one professional (D1) and four general service posts will be abolished, reducing the total to 71 posts. This is down nearly 20% from the 87 posts in the Division only three years ago. Table 5 shows the current numbers of posts in mid 2006. One additional officer will also be decentralised to the Regional Office for Africa. It should be kept in mind that these figures do not accurately reflect the true human resource situation of the Division at any given time, since some of these posts may be vacant, and staff may be supplemented by up to ten temporary staff, consultants, Associate Professional Officers or volunteers.

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2. Shrinking Financial Resources

90. Tables 5 and 6 show the Division's allotment of financial resources from the regular programme (RP) by Programme Entities for the biennia 2000-01, 2002-03, 2004-05 and the latest revised 2006-07 budget with the new entities. Activities and costs related to the organization and servicing of the CCP and its IGGs have moved from sub-programme 224P4 to a separate entity, 3CP08.

91. The Division had to absorb substantial budget cuts (over 20% in real terms) over the past three biennia. This has necessitated several adjustments to the latest revised PWB 2006-07, with further abolition of posts and curtailment or elimination of several divisional outputs.

92. The largest allocation in past years was to the activities under 224P4, "Analysis and consensus-building on emerging commodity and trade issues", which covers much of the Division's studies, working papers and other publications on various commodity market related topics, as well as meetings of various kinds to promote consensus on issues around trade in agricultural commodities. The entity also funds the maintenance of databases and development of methodologies to assess factors such as the impact of new technologies on trade, eco-labelling and fair trade, organic agricultural development and competitiveness of agricultural commodities. The research and preparation of certain documents for the CCP and IGGs also comes under this entity.

93. The other large group is made up of the PEs supporting the commodity market data management, analysis and publishing work. This includes 223P3, 223P5, and for the modelling and projections work, 223P4. Together, these PEs accounted for 38% of the budget in 2004-05, and will increase to 41% under the new PE 3CP06 for the 2006-07 biennium.

Table 5: Extract from Previous Programmes of Work and Budget (PWB) 2000-01, 2002-03 and 2004-05:

ESC part of Programmes 2.2.3: Food and Agricultural Monitoring, Assessments and Outlooks

(excluding GIEWS) and 2.2.4: Agriculture, Food Security and Trade Policy (All amounts in US$ 000)

Programme Entity 2000-01

Programme of Work

2002-03 Programme

of Work

ZRG 2004-05 Programme of

Work

% of 2004-05 budget

2.2.3.P3 Market Assessments for Basic Food Commodities and Impact on Global Food Security

1,290 1,458 1,391 12%

2.2.3.P4 Projections and Global Commodity Market Assessments

1,097 986 948 9%

2.2.3.P5 Market Assessments of Tropical, Horticultural and Raw Material Commodities and Impact on Food Security

1,707 1,976 1,929 17%

2.2.3.S1 Technical Support Services to Member Nations and the Field Programme

522 532 758 7%

2.2.4.A2 Commodity and Trade Policy Support to Developing Countries for Trade Negotiations

- 941 1,363 12%

2.2.4.P4 Analysis and Consensus-Building on Emerging Commodity and Trade Issues

6,112 (included A2)

4,983 3,686 33%

2.2.4.P5 Enhancing Diversification and Competitiveness of Agricultural Commodities

1,622 1,132 1,064 10%

TOTAL for ESC excl. GIEWS 12,350 12,008 11,139 100%

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Table 6: Extract from the Revised Programme of Work and Budget (PWB) 2006-07 with New Programme Entities

Programme 3C: "Trade and Marketing" (covering ESC, but excluding GIEWS)

(all amounts in US$ 000)

Programme Entity

New Programme Entity Title Prog. of Work

2006-07

% of budget

of which Staff Costs

Non Staff budget

3CA02 Support to the Multilateral Trade Negotiations and support for Implementation of Multi-Lateral Trade Negotiations

1,656 15% 1,249 407

3CP06 Global socioeconomic analysis and market assessment of agricultural products and impact on food security

4,497 41% 4,283 214

3CP07 Analysis of globalization and trade issues relevant to agricultural markets

2,404 22% 2,317 87

3CP08 Support to CCP 1,481 14% 978 503

3CS01 Technical Support Services to Members and the Field Programme

926 8% 820 106

Total 10,964 100% 9,647 1,317

94. According to this breakdown, 63% of resources are devoted to the analysis and information activities of the Division, including applied research, projections, publications and meetings on commodity and trade issues. That leaves 37% which are used for direct support to member countries including in multilateral trade negotiations and the CCP and IGGs. While this is in line with the mandate of the ESC, there is pressure from some quarters, including many of the countries visited by the ET, to shift the balance more toward direct country assistance activities. The anticipated EU funding (see next section) may contribute to that shift in balance toward technical support to countries.

95. Of the above 2006-07 budget, staff costs represent 88% of the total (and rise to 95 and 96% in the case of the two largest PEs), a percentage that has been increasing over the past biennia as budgets have been squeezed. In 2002-03, staff costs accounted for about 80% of the expenditures, which was already a very high figure as it leaves little operating budget for staff to work with. Much of the non-staff budget is accounted for by publications, including the periodical commodities publications and printing and translations of publications of the IGGs and CCPs. Some form of incentive-based system is needed within the Division to accelerate the generation of extra-budgetary funds to replace the staffing cuts and provide for non-salary expenses.

G. Extra-budgetary Resources for Headquarters Programmes

96. The headquarters work of ESC has benefited over the past three biennia from about US$ 7.3 million of extra-budgetary funds from various sources. This compares with an estimated US$ 6 million of Regular Programme non-staff resources for the same period. In addition, another US$ 1.9 million has gone to three commodities and trade projects under the leadership of other FAO units (TCAS, AGSF) in which ESC has also participated. Nearly all of this funding was either for the production of trade policy or commodity market studies, or for global or regional training programmes, e.g. on WTO negotiations.

97. This funding has been in the form of 14 projects of which the largest – US$ 2.2 million - is the UK-funded support for the production of information materials to assist negotiating countries to better understand potential impacts of OECD trade policy on developing countries. The UK has been the largest donor to the normative programme, also funding another project (US$ 0.65 million) to study the impact of food import surges in several countries. Japan is not far behind, having provided nearly US$ 2 million for three projects to assist developing countries understand and implement GATT outcomes and participate in WTO negotiations, and assist ESC to develop commodity market

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modelling tools for use in South East Asian countries. France and the EU, supplemented by FAO's Technical Cooperation Programme, provided funds for training programmes, in particular for ACP countries. These latter training projects are under the leadership of TCA.

98. A very large EU contribution (€ 10 million) is currently under discussion. This is part of a € 45 million programme entitled "EU Commodities Action Plan", and FAO's role in it is reportedly confirmed, together with the CFC and the World Bank. The EU would also like to involve the ITC. Precise activities to be taken up by FAO (e.g. country strategy development and production-related work) are being discussed, and no starting date has yet been set.

H. Extra-Budgetary Resources for Field Activities

99. Most of the projects classed as under ESC responsibility are funded by the Common Fund for Commodities (CFC), for which the Division provides supervisory and management support. These projects (35 of a total of 50 ESC field projects during 2000-06) are mainly technical assistance projects relating to improving production, processing or marketing of agricultural products4. Most are more related to the expertise of FAO's technical divisions in the Agriculture Department. Of the 35 CFC projects, only six were found to be somewhat linked to the technical area of ESC, though even those were mainly related to improving internal marketing channels for export commodities.

100. They are under the responsibility of ESC because of long-standing arrangements between FAO and the CFC whereby FAO IGGs take responsibility for CFC assistance to commodities not coming under other ICBs. ESC staff has the responsibility for supervising these CFC projects.

101. However, the projects generally bear little or no relation to the expertise and work of these staff; they are not managed or operated by them; and although the projects themselves are usually for several million dollars, they bring only very limited funds to the Division: only US$ 15,000 per project per year for supervisory services.

102. This is an area where there may be fewer opportunities for funding in future if the recommendations of the ET are accepted. The ET recommends that the management of CFC-funded technical projects be allocated to other divisions of FAO, where there is expertise in the area.

103. The remaining 15 field projects5 under ESC represent funding totalling about US$ 5.9 million. There are another 27 projects with activities relating to commodities and trade under the responsibility of other FAO divisions, mainly the Policy Assistance Division (TCA) and its Policy Assistance Branches in the Regional Offices (see Table 7 below). Total funding for the relevant components of these projects is about another US$ 6 million.

4 Typical examples of this kind of project include: Reviving Banana Cultivation in the Republic of Guinea; Coir Based Building and Packing Materials; Adding Value to African Leather; Raw Hides and Skins Grading and Pricing Systems in Eastern and Southern Africa; Development of Sustainable Groundnut Seed Systems in West Africa; Coconut Integrated Pest Management; Bridging the Yield Gap in Irrigated Rice in Brazil and Venezuela; etc. 5 Multiple phase projects are counted as a single project here, as are different versions of projects which have been recoded.

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Table 7: Commodities and Trade Field Projects Operational during 2000-2006

Type of project Funding source

Training and capacity building

in trade

Studies and assessments

Policy support,

market dev't

Technology transfer

TOTAL

Value of projects from

this source

Technical Cooperation Programme (TCP)

13 3 9 1 26 $5.53 m

Donor Funded (GCP) 4 - 3 1 8 $5.14 m

UNDP Funded - 2 4 - 6 $0.46 m

Funded by recipient (UTF)

1 1 - - 2 $0.77 m

CFC (ESC supervisory services only)

- - 6 29 35 ? - supervision

costs only

TOTALS 18 6 22 31 77 $11.9 m

104. The extra-budgetary funding for field operations (as opposed to headquarters projects) in commodities and trade is limited by the non-country-specific nature of the work carried out under this programme. Nearly all the projects are related to activities such as development of policy options and advice and trade related capacity building. Less than half were country-specific (only 21), with most being regional in nature.

105. As can be seen from Table 7, 22 projects (including the six CFC projects on marketing) support development of trade policy, preparation for WTO access, and commodity sector policy. This includes support to development of national trade policies and also regional trade policies, for example with COMESA in East Africa and UEMOA in West Africa. Several of these projects provide support to reviving, rehabilitating or strengthening a particular export commodity sub-sector, such as sugar.

106. The other large group - besides the CFC technology projects - is made up of the 18 projects in capacity building and training related to trade negotiations and trade policy. Ten of these training projects were under the technical oversight of the Agricultural Policy Support Service (TCAS - responsible for most economic policy related training activities in FAO) and its regional branches.

107. Six of the remaining projects are relatively small projects to fund a study or assessment of an issue of interest in the area of trade and market policy. Examples are demand for household commodity risk insurance, costs and benefits of WTO membership, or assessment of competitiveness of a particular sector.

108. The distribution of project type corresponds well to the role of FAO in commodities and trade (again, other than the CFC projects), focussing largely on capacity building for participation in international markets and on policy advice and assistance to member countries. However, the source of funding appears too heavily dependent of FAO's own limited TCP funds, as opposed to donor funds.

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V. ASSESSMENT OF IMPLEMENTATION OF FAO COMMODITIES AND TRADE WORK

A. Clients and Target Audience of FAO's Commodities and Trade Work

109. The users of FAO's commodities and trade work are internal and external. Internally, ESC plays an important role for other FAO technical divisions as a source of information and expertise on export commodity markets and policy issues.

110. The primary clients of FAO's commodities and trade activities are, of course, governments of member countries; though where these target policy makers sit (ministries of agriculture or ministries of trade, etc) emerged as a central issue in the course of this evaluation, since the ministries of agriculture through which FAO normally works are often not the most appropriate for trade work. The affiliation of the respondents to the evaluation questionnaire provides an indication of the problem: 87% of the replies were from ministries of agriculture. The 13% that were not came from trade-related ministries such as commerce, business or international trade and, in one case, a ministry of planning. Of the questionnaires completed by agriculture ministries, 13% were from marketing or trade units and 9% were from statistics offices. The remaining 78% were from production related units in the ministries or offices dealing with relations with UN agencies, none of which had much knowledge of trade issues.

111. There is also a broad set of private and public agents who regularly use the outputs of the Division. These include non-governmental organizations, academic and other research institutions, producer organizations, private traders involved as agents in global commodity markets, and other UN and non-UN international organizations.

1. Main Concerns of Member Countries

112. A surprisingly small number of issues were the main focus of the discussions in most countries visited, both developing and developed. These were the related issues of:

• the setting and meeting of health and quality standards; • market reforms including management of private sector participation in the market; • the development of marketing chains or integrated marketing systems; and • product differentiation, in order to move into higher price markets.

Standards as trade barriers

113. A major concern in many countries was that as market access, export subsidies, and producer support schemes are removed through the WTO, non-tariff barriers - and in particular health and quality standards - will become the key battleground for agricultural trade. It was found that both developed and developing countries are using product standards as technical barriers to trade (TBTs).

114. There was fairly widespread agreement that the private sector, in particular the large retail chains, will set international product standards; although there was some pressure from the lower-income developing countries for FAO to play a strong role in establishing internationally-agreed standards. Most countries that believed that the private sector will be the main driving force in the setting of standards believed that FAO's role should be to help developing countries meet these standards rather than trying to have agreement on standards, which tend, through compromise, to become the lowest common denominator and would not be used by the developed country private sector anyway. However, it may also be noted that the diversity of private standards in place imposes very significant transaction costs on producers and to some extent retailers. There is thus some need for harmonisation and FAO and governments could play a catalytic role in this.

115. As noted many times in this report, the general tendency of declining influence of ministries of agriculture (especially in trade) was well illustrated by those encountered by the ET on its country visits, with the notable exception of some of the large agricultural exporting countries. The weakening

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of agriculture ministries was found not to be confined to developing countries. In developed countries this is often linked to the increasing power of consumers, which is generally related to the disproportionate focus on product standards and trade, as well as on the environment.

Market reforms

116. Market reforms are underway for many of the major cash crops in many of the countries visited. Coffee, tea, sugar and other crops have boards that are in the process of changing from marketing to the regulation of markets dominated by the private sector. In some cases these boards have migrated to be a part of the ministries of agriculture. In others the boards are still stand-alone organizations that are finding their way to a new role in the sector. Often, the stand-alone boards are having a difficult time not intervening in the sectors that they used to manage. This process of transition represents an opportunity for ESC to work with the ICBs and support these efforts. The transitions should be monitored closely by the FAO country representatives.

Marketing and value chains

117. Recent developments in marketing chains for agricultural commodities have raised several questions. First, there is the question of whether there is an increasing concentration of buyers of agricultural commodities and, if so, how this is affecting the returns to farmers? Second, how is it possible to ensure that smallholders participate effectively in marketing chains? The participation of smallholders can have high transaction costs and a challenge is to reduce these costs to ensure access. The ET heard of interesting attempts to reduce transaction costs in developing countries. It was pointed out by private sector interviewees that agriculture ministries are not concerned with major parts of the value chain; claiming that this is the realm of the industry or commerce departments. Therefore, there is generally limited knowledge about value chains in agricultural ministries.

118. The ability of smallholders and smaller commercial producers to become part of the marketing chain and to meet the health and quality standards being established in international trade are thus key concerns for both agriculture and trade policy. As noted in Section IV.D.1, this interrelationship between agricultural and trade policy illustrates the overlap between ESA and ESC Divisions in FAO, and raises the issue of the appropriate relationship between them. The dichotomy as it stands poses problems, as often the main agricultural policy issues are those of trade and marketing policy.

119. Analysis of marketing or value chains is important for several reasons relevant to ESC's work. However, the detailed data about marketing chains are often not in the public arena but are held privately. Therefore, if ESC is to pursue commodity market analysis at this level rather than at an aggregate level, which seems essential for a good understanding of what is happening in commodity markets, it will have to form partnerships with the private sector.

Product Differentiation and 'Niche Markets'

120. In a majority of the countries visited, producers, exporters and government staff were paying great attention to the potential to add value to export products through product differentiation. This includes such distinctions as certification of origin or of production, processing or marketing systems (e.g. in 'fair trade' products), special characteristics of products and in particular claimed or real health benefits, environmental characteristics of production or processing, and more refined grading and differentiation of quality. In many cases this effort is supported by NGOs, as well as by large integrated import and marketing companies such as the large supermarket chains. The developed country (but gradually also developing country) consumer markets are becoming increasingly fragmented into 'niches' willing to pay a premium for specific differentiated characteristics of imported commodities.

121. This particular issue was often pointed to as an opportunity for assisting poorer producers to gain export market access, by finding the suitable label under which to sell their products. However this is a double-edged sword, as highly differentiated and specialised products are often more difficult to produce, leading to exclusion effects similar to the case of standards. FAO needs to master this

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aspect of commodity production and trade in terms of information, statistics and trade issues if it is to provide its members with the best possible assistance.

B. Review of Implementation of the "Old" Programme Entities

122. This evaluation was conducted at a time of significant change in the structure of the ESC Division and in the organization of its work. In reviewing the work programme, the ET necessarily had to make judgements based on objectives and targets presented in the work programmes of past years, the "old" programme entities (PEs). It should be stressed that there has been substantial but very recent adjustment in the work programme, as described in Section IV.C.4 above. Some aspects of certain old PEs have been assessed quite critically in the review below, but it is important to point out that in the "new" PEs the Division has responded to some of the problem areas identified. Further detail regarding these Programme Entities can be found in Annex IV.

1. PROGRAMME 2.2.3: Food and Agricultural Monitoring, Assessments and Outlooks

123. This programme included four Programme Entities under ESC responsibility:

• 223P3. Market Assessments for Basic Food Commodities and Impact on Global Food Security • 223P4. Projections and Global Commodity Market Assessments • 223P5. Market Assessments of Tropical Horticultural and Raw Material Commodities and

Impacts on Food Security • 223S1. Technical Support Services to the Member Nations and the Field Programme.

124. These were the "Commodities" part of the Commodities and Trade Division's work programme, covering the basic foodstuffs (ESCB Service) and the 'minor' commodities (ESCR Service). The objective given for Programme Entities 223P3 and 223P5 was identical, the difference being only in the type of commodity. The objective was to assist the key actors in food and agricultural commodity markets to make better decisions in adapting to changing market conditions. In particular, the assistance was designed to help decision makers in governments promote appropriate programmes or policies to enable the private sector to seize emerging commodity market opportunities. The difference between the two was that focus in 223P5 was on many products that are specific to developing countries, which are often becoming involved in integrated marketing networks developed by the private sector (supply or value chains).

125. These PEs have been carried out through extensive publications, conferences and briefings on essentially all significant commodity crops. The outlook and monitoring results have been released through FAO publications, media, and press briefings, and the outputs generally appeared to be of good quality. However, as discussed elsewhere, the ET finds that there is reason to reduce reporting on short-term movements in commodity markets while strengthening in-depth analysis of longer-term trends.

126. The two major obstacles to this work having maximum impact are that (i) the locus of agricultural trade decisions has shifted from agricultural ministries to ministries of finance, trade and commerce while FAO continues to work in many cases exclusively with ministries of agriculture, and (ii) the importing, exporting, and storage of food products take place largely in the private sector, which an intergovernmental organization like FAO still has some trouble reaching. This is especially important in the case of the 'minor' commodities under 223P5, where private sector domination of marketing and distribution chains has created specific issues for small farmers, such as the necessity for standards certification.

127. With the removal of international and national price stabilisation measures price risks are now primarily borne by smallholders, and there is a need to develop price and production risk management systems for these producers. The fact that ESC output has been primarily targeting agriculture ministries, which no longer control these markets, has meant that the work of the Division in influencing the involvement of the private sector in these markets has not been nearly as effective as it

26

could have been. It is for this reason that in Table 8 below, these entities have lower scores for formulation and design, process and impact than for other areas.

128. Three points follow from the above comments. First, FAO and particularly the country representatives must broaden their circle of regular contacts in countries if the data and information produced by ESC is to get to the right hands on a timely basis. Second, the capacity of ESC to do in-depth market outlook and food commodity impact assessments is dependent on access to up-to-date information that relates to the segmentation that is taking place in most agricultural product markets. Without it, the commodity analysts cannot be expected to provide in-depth understanding of what is happening in these markets. Thirdly, for many of the horticultural and raw material commodities, FAO is the only international organization producing public good types of information for these industries. This makes it especially important for ESC to be at the forefront in terms of analytical techniques and coverage of issues.

129. Programme Entity 223P4 Projections and Global Commodity Market Assessments is an area where ESC has rapidly evolved a new strategy with the development of the COSIMO model with OECD (see Section V.C.3 below). This is having and will have an important impact on the projections made by commodity analysts. The limitations of the projections relate to the use of the FAOSTAT database for the projections and the needed updating of the FAOSTAT system. An important issue is the institutionalisation of partnerships with the ICBs and other organizations, like the partnership with OECD.

130. It is clear from the field visits that some developing member countries have adjusted their policies to seize trading opportunities, though it is difficult to attribute these changes to information and analysis provided by FAO. The private sector is largely driving exports and imports and plays a substantial role in getting governments to put in place more appropriate policies. ESC publications and technical assistance have been relevant and technically of good quality, but from the ET's country visits it was apparent that the outputs could have been better targeted. For this reason, the scoring in Table 8 of this PE on process and on impacts is low. The current way in which the information and analysis generated by ESC is provided to member countries is through ministries of agriculture, and this must be changed. One of the methods recommended for linking with the private sector is to involve the ICBs in the short-term modelling exercises, thereby developing contacts that can assist in disseminating the medium-term projections as well as the shorter-term information and analysis.

131. Programme Entity 223S1 was for the servicing of the Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP) and its Intergovernmental Commodity Groups (IGGs) and for providing information and technical assistance to member countries. The technical assistance covered by this PE was mainly related to that provided by the outposted officer in Latin America.

132. There were 3 meetings of the CCP and 18 meetings of the IGGs in the period 2000-06. These meetings require much planning and the preparation of numerous background or issues papers, making heavy demands on the resources of the Division. The budget of this entity in fact covered only the direct costs of the meetings (about US$ 400,000 for document and translation, interpreters, conference staff, etc.), and did not cover staff time. This has been changed in the new structure, and there is now a PE, 3CP08, which covers all costs, direct and indirect, of these meetings. It was allocated US$ 1.48 million for the biennium. The quality of the reports to the CCP and the IGGs is seen as being high. With respect to the changing circumstances of commodity markets and what this has meant for the CCP and particularly the IGGs, this is discussed in Section V.D below.

2. PROGRAMME 2.2.4: Agriculture, Food and Trade Policy

133. This programme included three Programme Entities under ESC responsibility:

• 224A2. Commodity and Trade Policy Support to Developing Countries for Trade Negotiations • 224P4. Analysis and Consensus-Building on Emerging Commodity and Trade Issues • 224P5. Enhancing Diversification and Competitiveness of Agricultural Commodities

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134. The first of these, Programme Entity 224A2, was the main "Trade" entity of ESC, though 224P4 also covered a certain amount of trade work. The objective of 224A2 was to assist countries, especially developing countries, to participate effectively in trade negotiations affecting the international regulatory framework for agriculture. Although representing only about 12% of the overall commodities and trade budget of ESC (it is a less resource-intensive area of work than data gathering or major meetings), this PE has been a key activity of the Division due to the strategic importance of trade negotiations and trade policy for member countries.

135. Under this PE, several studies on various trade and policy topics were carried out, and guidelines and manuals were produced. The peer reviewers gave very favourable reviews on the relevance, appropriateness, readability and technical quality of sample material produced under this PE. Training workshops on trade negotiations and implementation were conducted in all FAO regions, some jointly with other UN organizations such as UNCTAD, or with other FAO divisions such as TCA. These workshops were commented on very favourably by participants in all the developing countries visited by the ET. The most frequent criticism of this training was that at times it was not coordinated with the Regional Offices to permit follow through.

136. These programmes must also shift over time to embrace the trade and marketing issues of the countries. Several developing member countries commented that they would like to see ESC do more analysis on bilateral and regional preferential trade arrangements and the interrelationships between these and the WTO agreements. To date its focus has been primarily on the WTO agreements and negotiations, though support in this area is foreseen under the Division's new PE 3CA02.

137. Programme Entity 224P4 Analysis and consensus-building on emerging commodity trade

issues had the highest budget allocation of all those examined, almost US$ 3.7 million for 2004-05, one third of the commodities and trade budget of ESC. This covered much of the analytical work done by the commodities Services (ESCB and ESCR), including maintenance of databases and preparation of studies and methodologies on such topics as the assessment of the impact of new technologies on trade, eco-labelling and fair trade, organic agricultural development and competitiveness of agricultural commodities. This entity funded a good part of the staff time for preparation of documents for some of the IGGs and the CCP. It also covered a range of consultative mechanisms such as inter-governmental consultations, multi-commodity and multi-disciplinary outlook conferences, networking and multi-media communications, and inter-disciplinary linkages with government, non-governmental, academic and private sector stakeholders.

138. It is very difficult to evaluate the benefits of these kinds of analysis. It does appear, however, that there has been a reasonable amount of analytical output from the programme. In the questionnaire to member countries, respondents were asked about their awareness and opinions of FAO work in ten applied research topics which come under this Programme Entity, from analysis of WTO or FTA issues to market chain work to trade and household food security. For 6 of the 10 topics, over half the respondents were unaware that FAO was working in that area. Only concerning work in the areas of domestic policy, WTO negotiations and trade agreements was there a reasonable level of awareness. For all the topic areas, FAO's work was rated by those who knew of it as only satisfactory (6 to 7 out of 10). Looking at the regions, Latin America had rated the work most highly, most likely because of the specific regional work being done by the Regional Office. All developing regions considered the work on impacts of trade at household level to be good, but the OECD countries rated that lowest. Asia and the Near East gave a low score to the work on impacts of trade on LIFDCs.

139. In general, it would appear that much of the research work being done by ESC is not well known to many member countries. This ties into the ET's observation that there is a need to tie ESC research work more closely to the needs and issues important to FAO members.

140. Given the private sector's heavy involvement in supply and/or value chains, the major concern of governments should be to provide the kind of investment and regulatory environment in which efficient private sector activity will flourish. Therefore, there should be concern about the poor supply response in developing countries to the opening of export markets. Many of the value added opportunities available to developing countries are in the marketing area. There is much for ESC and

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other divisions to do in this area. The ET encourages the pursuit of these efforts and notes with approval the organizational change that, at least in name, has brought marketing into the trade issues (ESC's new name: Trade and Markets Division).

141. The last Programme Entity 224P5 Enhancing diversification and competitiveness of

agricultural commodities was mainly concerned with FAO's role in support of the Common Fund for Commodities (CFC), involving support to countries to develop and implement projects aimed at improving production, processing and marketing of agricultural export commodities. It also included activities of assistance in development of strategies addressing supply-side issues including vertical and horizontal diversification.

142. The ET could find only a few outputs that related to this area of work. This is an area that has been underdeveloped in ESC, which is likely due to the fact that competitiveness is a particularly difficult issue to attach meaning to. The ET understands it to mean the opportunity to develop new products and commodities (or old commodities in different wrappers) that can compete in the international market. This is an important area for work in ESC, and one which the changes in the divisional structure and work programme will equip it better to address. The ET supports ESC and FAO more generally in working to help countries overcome the obstacles to improved supply response. However, the output from this programme entity appeared to have suffered from the Division's necessary commitments to other projects. The design of the PE was also not clear and well directed and as a result the process of the PE and its sustainable impacts suffered. Hence, the scoring in Table 8 of the PE in these areas is low.

3. Overall scoring of the Programme Entities

Table 8. Scoring of Programme Entities against Evaluation Criteria (on a scale of 1-10 where 1 is 'completely unsatisfactory' and 10 is 'far exceeds expectations')

Criteria 223P3 223P4 223P5 223S1 224A2 224P4 224P5 Avg.

Relevance

Does the entity correspond to FAO priorities in the SF and those emerging from the HQs review and the field missions?

8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8.1

Clarity of objective

Is the desired outcome (effect of the outputs) of the entity clearly specified?

8 8 8 9 8 7 7 7.9

Formulation and design

Are target beneficiaries, outputs and indicators clearly defined? How clear are linkages between the activities, outputs and objectives, and will the indicators measure them?

6 6 8 6 8 6 5 6.4

Outputs What is the quality and quantity of outputs produced, compared to expectations?

7 7 8 6 8 7 5 6.9

Process

Is the entity being implemented in the best way to produce the desired results, in terms of outputs and objectives?

3 3 7 7 7 7 3 5.3

Effects and lasting impact

Is there an expectation of lasting change and continued action that corresponds to what was envisaged when the entity was designed?

2 2 7 5 7 7 3 4.7

Average 5.7 5.7 7.7 6.8 7.7 7 5.3

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LEGEND: 223P3 Market assessments for basic food commodities and impact on global food security 223P4 Projections and global commodity market assessments 223P5 Market assessments of tropical, horticultural and raw material commodities and impact on food security 223S1 Technical support services to member nations and the field programme, including servicing of the

committee on commodity problems and the inter-governmental commodity groups 224A2 Commodity and trade policy support to developing countries for trade negotiations 224P4 Analysis and consensus-building on emerging commodity and trade issues 224P5 Enhancing diversification and competitiveness of agricultural commodities

4. Notes on the scoring

143. In general, the lower scores reflect the fact that the Division is no longer focusing on the "old" programme entities. The fact that the Division is not working as well as it could with the Policy Assistance Division (TCA) also tended to depress ratings in some cases, especially on Process. Another factor is that FAO Country Representatives, who work mainly with the Ministry of Agriculture, do not get the results of the ESC Division in front of the people who are making the decisions since trade is generally the responsibility of the ministries of trade or commerce. This also means that the training offered by ESC - with participants often selected by FAO Representatives - goes mainly to ministry of agriculture staff, again not the people who are making the trade decisions. Of course, as observed by the ET in the field, governments themselves tend to underrate the importance of the private sector for trade and standard setting, another factor leading to poor targeting of ESC's outreach activities. These factors lower chances (and scores) for Sustainability.

144. Some notes on scoring for the different criteria are given below:

Relevance

145. Generally the work of the Division was found to be highly relevant to member countries as well as to partners, though this did not necessarily translate into good design, implementation or impact. For example, enhancing diversification and competitiveness (224P5) is a particularly relevant topic for most of FAO's developing country members, but the PE scored poorly in other areas because of unclear design.

Clarity of Objective

146. PEs 224P4 and 224P5 were assessed slightly lower on this criterion because it was felt that in the work undertaken there could have been more recognition of the poor supply response to domestic economic reform and the opening of export markets.

Formulation and Design

147. Commodities work is rated lower given the lack of interest in the IGGs on the part of many countries. However, the horticulture, tropical products and raw materials entity, 223P5, rates higher because it is an area where FAO dominates the subject as it does not for the other commodities. The result for the trade entity 224A2 is marked higher because the problems of linkages and design are not all the fault of the ESC Division. The diversification and competitiveness entity 224P5 is not formulated to clearly include the private sector in policy development, which is an important weakness. The same is true of 224P4, although to a lesser extent.

Outputs

148. The quantity and quality of outputs are rated good to very good (223P5 and 224A2), except for 223S1 and 224P5. PE 224A2 was rated highly because the quality of the training appears to have been of a high level and widely appreciated. PE 224P5 was rated as only average on this criterion as there has been relatively little output. As explained above, this appears to have been because of the diversion of resources to training on WTO negotiation and implementation issues.

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Process

149. The first entities are rated poorly because they should have different processes, focused more on longer run market developments, directed more towards ministries that actually deal with policies affecting the private sector, and with outputs made more widely available to the private sector. The new work programme recognises some of these problems. The trade policy entities seemed to be doing well in terms of process. 224P5 was again rated low because there was not much to report on.

Effects and Lasting Impact

150. The sustainability of the basic food commodities work is difficult to see unless there is a major effort to link with the international commodity bodies (ICBs) and the private sector. The good work on the COSIMO model with OECD still holds risks in terms of sustainability unless it is taken into the IGGs and other international commodity organizations more aggressively and ways are found to make the information more easily and widely available to the private sector. The Division's recognition of these problems is illustrated by its recent involvement of private sector and other non-government personnel in informal parallel sessions held in conjunction with the IGG meetings. The low rating for 224P5 was again based on the fact that there has been little output from this entity.

5. Impact of Extra-Budgetary Support to the Headquarters Programme

151. Overall, the ET found the outcomes of the headquarters extra budgetary projects to be of generally high quality. The trade policy technical notes and briefs produced under the larger UK project (GCP/INT/915/UK) were among the ESC documents most often cited by interviewees in the country and institutional visits, and assessments of their quality and relevance by both users and peer reviewers were very positive. Likewise, the ET field missions found that training under the inter-regional training projects had been highly appreciated and judged to be of good quality, though as stated elsewhere, there was an issue with follow-up. The Swedish-funded Commodity Study on Tobacco was one of the publications peer-reviewed for this evaluation, and again, the assessment was very positive.

152. The issue ultimately with extra-budgetary funding for the headquarters programme is not one of quality or positive outcomes, but of the amount of funding. It is clear that extra-budgetary resources for normative work have increased slowly and are now more than the (very tight) Regular Programme operating budget; but in the view of this evaluation, that is still not sufficient. The ET calls strongly for partnerships that would generate both in-kind and financial resources for the Division and related work on commodities and trade. Moreover, the ET recommends seeking extra budgetary resources to support the work on commodity market analysis. These resources should come from donors who are interested in supporting the work of the Division on the themes selected for emphasis. The practical aspect of this will be for the Director and staff to formulate projects that are more effective in drawing the attention of donors.

153. In the commodity analysis and projections area, the ET identified what appeared to be opportunities for extra budgetary funds and partnerships that can yield in-kind resources. In particular there are potential partnerships with the ICBs in producing a new kind of short-term outlook that combines the breadth of FAO and its intermediate forecasting or projections analysis with the short-term information and data sources of the ICBs. This joint work could be accomplished on a yearly or bi-yearly basis. The results could be presented to an insiders' conference to assure participants that the information is credible. The results could be made public through meetings of the IGGs or the ICBs themselves that are organized for members of the private and public sectors. The private sector representatives could be charged a significant registration or participation fee and the funds used to support participation of FAO staff and split with the participating commodity associations. The results could be jointly published by FAO and the ICBs that decide to participate. There may well be opportunities to include others interested in commodity projections, such as the OECD, USDA and non-governmental groups such as FAPRI.

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C. Analytical Capabilities, Modelling and Data Management by ESC

154. In the transition that it is going through there is perhaps a tendency for ESC to hold on to analytical capabilities that served the past focus of the Division and to embrace new capacities in an eclectic way - assembling models and analytical methods from the profession with little attention to how they will be integrated into the work programme. This is not a bad feature of organizations in transition, but as the transition is being completed there should be priority setting on the modelling and analytical capabilities that will best serve the Division's functions. The ET comments below on how this process appears to be taking place and the necessity of making some corporate decisions on this issue.

1. Data Needs for Commodity Analysis and Collaboration with the Statistics Division (ESS)

155. It appears that the commodity analysis is going on much as before, with Divisional databases different from the FAOSTAT data series that are supposed to reflect the same market features. As FAOSTAT transitions to its new data system, there should be less need for ESC to maintain independent data sets. At least one of the reasons for the maintenance of independent databases will be eliminated - if all goes according to plan, the FAOSTAT data should become more current in terms of reports from countries.

156. This report recommends less of a focus in the Division's work programme on short-term commodity analysis. Here again there may be opportunities to work with ESS to reduce duplication. We recommend that the ESC commodity market analysts collaborate with ESS to determine the independent databases that will need to be continued. Among other things, this will give more congruence to the FAO information programme and reduce costs. In short, with the focus shifting to medium-term analysis in FAO commodity market analysis work, it is an appropriate time to examine the data requirements for the new areas of emphasis and reduce duplication and cost.

2. Usefulness of Commodity and Trade Data to External Users

157. The importance of FAO data on trade and agricultural commodities, whether from FAOSTAT of from ESC, was reiterated repeatedly during ET country visits. In the same breath however, many interviewees pointed out weaknesses in the data produced, going from the quality of the data, to timeliness, to access (difficulty of using the website). The ET was told again and again that for many types of data and many commodities, FAO was the only source of information available.

158. Interestingly, there were opposing views on the neutrality of the data which FAO produces. Several interviewees in developed countries complained that FAO is receiving "politicised" data from some developing countries and that FAO is giving legitimacy to this data by publishing it. On the other hand, several developing countries expressed the opposite view, noting that the value of FAO data was that it is more neutral than that coming from private sources or government sources such as the USDA, the major supplier of publicly accessible data on commodities.

159. In addition, if and when implemented, FAOSTAT's plan to publish three sets of commodity data - "official" country data, country-supplied data with the gaps filled, and an "academic" data set in which the official country data has been cross-checked with other sources - should help to overcome the objections heard in developed countries. The concern expressed by some that FAOSTAT was not linking its data set to other data that are highly relevant to assessments of food security should also be addressed by the planned changes in FAOSTAT.

160. The delays in the publication of FAO data were universally criticized. Again, FAOSTAT's planned developments should lead to production of up-to-date data sets, which should improve matters. All of these latter issues of course are dependent on the ability of FAOSTAT to carry out its proposed reforms, which is going to require resources which were only partly available at the time of this evaluation.

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3. Economic Models and Modelling: the Case for COSIMO

161. There is the issue of the large number of economic models that the Division seems to be working with. The ET recommends that some of these modelling capabilities be acquired by developing partnerships with the institutions that are now major users of them. The cost of keeping models updated is high. The Division should be careful in selecting the models that will be associated with its signature work outputs. As was noted also by the Expert Panel, the Division cannot be a gathering place for all of the major models related to marketing and trade work. If a particular model is needed for a project, they could consider arranging a short-term posting of ESC staff to an institution that is actively using it, or invite staff from the institution to ESC.

162. The ET has not had time to review all of the models now being used in the Division, but encourages a review and the development of a plan regarding which models to keep in-house and which ones to use in partnership with other institutions. The ET believes that the OECD/FAO "COSIMO" medium-term commodity policy model and collaborative modelling activity should be one of those maintained within the Division. The COSIMO model may offer an opportunity to take advantage of projections and new information based on the FAOSTAT data to augment the commodity analysis work. COSIMO can be an integral part of the tool kit of the commodity analysts and can serve as a platform for much of the trade and marketing analysis.

163. The OECD group collaborating with ESC reported being very pleased with the collaborative effort. The OECD group has expertise in modelling and knowledge of agricultural activities and policies in developed countries, plus knowledge of the more important developing country exporters such as Brazil and Argentina; while ESC has modelling expertise, in-depth knowledge of individual global commodity markets, and an understanding of agricultural activities and policies in the smaller developing countries. The OECD group has moved completely away from the individual, short-term commodity analysis that they had once done but realized that they needed to be able to access such expertise. ESC was a natural partner. The OECD team believes that there needs to be one international agency having expertise in individual commodity market analysis and FAO/ESC appeared to fill this role.

164. The ET considers that there should be an effort to build capacity in the use of COSIMO within the Division. It should not be a model that only one person can maintain. It should become one of the signature analytical tools of the Division, and should be widely used within the Division. In addition, the arrangement with OECD for developing the model and the related cooperation should be made more concrete. This could be done through a memorandum of understanding and with an explicit acknowledgement of the collaboration in the work programme of the Division. The model can also become a platform for collaborative work with other divisions, e.g. in examining the impacts of environmental or disease shocks.

165. The OECD is committed to this partnership; indeed, it is written into the OECD Secretariat's work programme. There is a concern within the OECD, however, that while ESC is committed to the partnership, FAO as an organization is not yet committed. (An agreement document correcting this situation is apparently in process at FAO, which is applauded.) OECD would also like to see ESC's involvement in the collaboration written into FAO's work Programme.

4. Impact of FAO's Commodity Market Analysis and Modelling

166. With respect to the commodity market analysis of the Commodities and Trade Division, a wide variety of opinions was expressed to the ET during interviews both inside and outside of FAO. There is little interest in the reporting of short-term commodity market behaviour for the major commodities on the part of the developed countries and the more advanced developing countries. This information was said to be readily available for the major crops from their own sources or from industry associations and private specialists. There was a view expressed by the developed countries that FAO should concentrate any such work on minor crops and what is happening in small countries.

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167. However, there was seen to be a need for longer-term, in-depth analysis of major trends in commodity markets and that this should be emphasised in ESC's commodity analysis. The COSIMO model being used by ESC in collaboration with OECD (see previous section above) provides a possible platform for this type of analysis, and could form the basis for meeting this demand. The ET discussed this issue in many of the countries visited during the field work.

168. It was widely agreed that FAO has a comparative advantage in commodity market analysis relative to the OECD, World Bank and UNCTAD. However, there were equally strongly held but opposing views from different audiences either that ESC work on commodity markets and trade was becoming "too academic", or instead that the greater depth of analysis of the Division was very welcome.

169. There were also contrasting views about the Division's collaboration with the OECD Secretariat in the development of the COSIMO model. On the one hand, this collaboration was seen by some developing countries as the Division moving too close to the OECD in its focus on commodity markets in the developed countries. Others saw the collaboration in a positive light as it brings together the OECD expertise on developed country markets and the ESC expertise on developing country markets. In an example of the latter viewpoint, the modelling staff in the US Economic Research Service viewed this joint work between the OECD Secretariat and ESC as a good example of synergy between complementary groups.

170. Countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and China have strong capacities in the analysis of commodity markets and trade policy. However, because they have become such important traders of agricultural products - which have been a driving force in their recent economic performance - they have a keen interest in longer-run prospects for commodity markets and are interested in further developing their analytical capacity in this area. Thus, they are natural partners for ESC in medium-term commodity market analysis and could become an integral part of a COSIMO "network". For example, the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply has recently set up a unit to study longer-term commodity market trends which could clearly be a useful partner for ESC in this area.

171. The outcome of the visits to countries was the general view that the direction the Division is taking in longer term commodity market analysis is the correct one, and the ET therefore recommends that the COSIMO project should be enhanced and continued.

5. Partnerships for Data Management and Analysis

172. The ET has recommended that the commodity market analysis work be undertaken in collaboration with the ICBs through the formation of partnerships. A major issue is whether ESC is going to expand and institutionalize its partnerships with the ICBs and other organizations as it has with OECD. Such partnerships will provide an opportunity for the commodity market analysts to review the data that are maintained by the ICBs and that can be shared. These arrangements could also reduce the need to maintain data sets different from those available in the FAOSTAT system. Also, they may reduce the demands on the commodity market analysts for short-term analysis. One way to proceed would be to post commodity market analysts with ICBs or conversely invite selected ICB staff to ESC for short periods to plan the joint work, decide on the data sets to be maintained, and assign responsibility for keeping them current. Partnerships should also be developed or strengthened with other large-scale forecasting modelling systems, such as those maintained by FAPRI, IFPRI, the US Economic Research Service and others.

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D. The Committee on Commodity Problems and the Intergovernmental Groups

1. Relevance, Participation and Outcomes of the CCP and the IGGs, 2000-2006

173. During the period reviewed, three meetings of the CCP were held, in 2001, 2003 and 2005. Between them, the eight IGGs and four Sub-Groups met 18 times during the period; five of these meetings included more than one IGG or Sub-Group. Table 9 below summarises the attendance and costs of these meetings. Costs include publications, translation and interpretation, travel of FAO staff, and conference services. ESC staff time is not included as a cost.

174. Perhaps the most visible trend in this table is increasing attendance at the meetings. In spite of criticism from some countries on the usefulness of the CCP and the IGGs, it would appear that there is a growing interest in some of them. Overall direct costs have been relatively contained given the size of the meetings and the need for translation and interpretation, by far the highest direct cost. However it should be considered that staff costs for the work related to these meetings was estimated at about US$ 1 million for the biennium 2006-07. This may include some work (studies, etc.) which would be done even if the meetings were not held, but it nonetheless represents 10% of the total staff budget.

175. Across the ET's in-country discussions and meetings with organizations there were wide differences in views regarding the usefulness of the CCP and the IGGs. Generally, however, it was clear that with the reduction of government involvement in the production, pricing, marketing, trade, and distribution of agricultural commodities around the world, the CCP and the IGGs, which are forums for government officials, have become much less relevant to international commodity markets. Therefore, the initiative of ESC to expand the IGG meetings to include an informal session for the participation of the private sector and other stakeholders has been welcomed in some quarters (including certain developed as well as developing countries, as well as NGOs).

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Table 9: CCP and IGG meetings 2000-2006

Year Meetings held Location Participants Costs (US$)

2000

Joint meeting of IGG on Jute, Kenaf and Allied Fibres, IGG on Hard Fibres, and Sub-Group on Sisal and Henequen

Rome 43 participants from 23 member countries, UNIDO, CFC, Int. Jute Org., and 1 INGO

47,917

63rd Session of the CCP Rome 78 out of the 98 CCP member countries, 8 other FAO members, the Holy See, the Sovereign Order of Malta, 6 int'l. organizations and 6 INGOs

132,730

Sub-Group on Hides and Skins Rome 42 participants from 25 member countries, EU, UNCTAD/ITC, UNIDO, CFC, and 2 INGOs

43,170

IGG on Bananas and Tropical Fruit San José, Costa Rica

55 participants from 23 member countries, the EU, IAEA, WHO, ICIPE, and 6 INGOs

102,462

IGG on Tea New Delhi, India

48 participants from 13 member countries and the EU

47,579 2001

Joint meeting of IGG on Grains, IGG on Rice, IGG on Meat and Dairy Products, and IGG on Oilseeds, Oils and Fats

Rome Participants from 35 member countries and 6 international organizations

29,969

2002 IGG on Meat and Dairy Products Rome 78 participants from 45 member countries and the

EU 53,249

64th Session of the CCP Rome 76 out of 108 CCP member countries, 3 additional FAO members, the Holy See, 6 int'l. organizations and 9 INGOs

97,280

Joint meeting of IGG on Jute, Kenaf and Allied Fibres, IGG on Hard Fibres, and Sub-Group on Sisal and Henequen

Salvador, Brazil

37 participants from 10 member countries, UNIDO, Int. Jute Study Group, and 2 INGOs

44,863

Sub-Group on Hides and Skins Rome 30 participants from 16 member countries, EU, UNCTAD/ITC, UNIDO, CFC, COMESA, and 3 INGOs

42,295

IGG on Citrus Havana, Cuba

76 participants from 20 member countries, CFC, and 5 INGOs

65,465

2003

IGG on Tea Colombo, Sri Lanka

63 participants from 17 member countries, the CFC and the International Tea Committee

48,654

Joint meeting of IGG on Jute, Kenaf and Allied Fibres, IGG on Hard Fibres, and Sub-Group on Sisal and Henequen

Rome 26 participants from 16 member countries, UNIDO, CFC, Int. Jute Study Group and 1 INGO

44,815

IGG on Bananas and Tropical Fruit Puerto de la Cruz, Spain

113 participants from 23 member countries, EU, CFC, and 6 INGOs

52,020

Joint meeting of IGG on Grains and IGG on Rice

Rome 113 participants from 76 member countries and EU, World Bank, OECD, Common Fund for Commodities and International Grains Council

32,202 2004

IGG on Meat and Dairy Products Winnipeg, Canada

45 participants from 27 member countries, EU, CFC, OECD, and 3 INGOs

77,686

65th Session of the CCP Rome 92 out of 110 member countries of the CCP, 11 additional FAO member nations, the Holy See, 7 international organizations and 7 INGOs

146,670

2005 IGG on Tea Bali,

Indonesia 95 participants from 21 member countries, the CFC and the International Tea Committee

43,860

Sub-Group on Hides and Skins Arusha, Tanzania

89 participants from 11 member countries (58 from Tanzania), UNCTAD/ITC, UNIDO, CFC, COMESA, ECOWAS, and 4 INGOs

18,528

IGG on Tea Nairobi, Kenya

113 participants from 24 member countries, the CFC, the Int. Tea Committee, the European Tea Committee, and 2 INGOs.

31,900 2006

IGG on Meat and Dairy Products Rome 94 participants from 46 member countries and 1 non member, EU, WFP, WHO, CFC, OECD, ILRI, and 4 INGOs

59,621

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176. In some country discussions it was noted that these meetings and related activities are less important currently, given the available communication technologies and the provision of similar information by other sources. Private sector views expressed were generally to the effect that IGGs were "outdated"; that they made more sense when governments were involved in the marketing of commodities and the use of price support/stabilisation schemes. Further, the IGGs were seen to be poorly attended by government officials, though this is not evident on examination of the participants' lists, where instead it is clear that many of the countries most closely concerned with the commodity(ies) being discussed send high level officials to the meetings. It was also noted that there was little feedback from the IGGs to the private sector.

177. An alternative view was expressed in Chile, which noted that these meetings provide a forum in which small countries can discuss commodity and trade matters with large countries on an equal footing, reflecting FAO's important "neutral forum" function. This was an observation echoed by other developing countries as well. There was support from several developing countries and NGOs for the idea of holding regional meetings including producers and consumers and importers and exporters (in effect, 'regionalised' IGGs), with the aim of discussing issues of common interest. This view ties in with the demand for more focus from ESC and other divisions on country studies rather than regional studies and on regional studies rather than global studies (e.g., Caribbean). The holding of some recent IGG meetings in member countries rather than in Rome was seen as a positive step in this direction. However, the question remains as to what this would mean for ESC; in particular, whether it would have the resources to develop the needed regional expertise and to run more frequent regional meetings.

178. Frequently, private sector groups stated that they had problems in "accessing FAO", and felt that the Organization was too focused on government officials. With the substantial shift that has taken place in the marketing and distribution of commodities, in the not too distant future it will become difficult for FAO to remain relevant in trade matters if it does not deal more directly with the private sector.

179. The demand for IGG meetings varies across commodities. For major commodities where there are robust industry associations and lots of private sector provision of information, the demand for IGG meetings was not strong. However, it is a different matter for minor commodities, particularly commodities primarily produced in developing countries, such as for example the IGGs on Hard Fibres or on Tea. These meetings were found by several participating countries to be useful discussion forums. The IGG on Hard Fibres was said to be the only international forum for discussion of trade issues and the exchange of information with respect to these particular commodities. However, there were complaints expressed that there was little or no follow up on recommendations made at the IGGs. It was recognized that recommendations made at IGGs were not binding. But more progress could be made in achieving these consensus recommendations if there were a mechanism developed for generating follow-up action.

180. Persons interviewed in certain European governments took a strong stand against the CCP and the IGGs. Some said that they had lost interest in the CCP and the IGGs because they had become irrelevant, given the shift to the private sector in commodity markets. Moreover, commodity organizations do a good job of following what's going on in markets. It was suggested that it would be a good idea to merge the Committee on Agriculture and the CCP. Though not merging them for now, FAO will in fact be holding the next meeting of the these two Committees in 2007 back-to-back the same week.

181. Some countries noted that officials attending the CCP mainly wished to discuss trade issues and that commodity market issues are being neglected. There was concern in some quarters that the FAO meetings should not be discussing trade issues and that these should be left to the WTO. Concern was expressed in Europe that in the discussion of trade matters the developing countries only wished to discuss market access into developed countries and refused to discuss their own high trade barriers and supply response issues.

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182. A comment was made that involving the private sector in the IGGs through an additional informal meeting (as is done with a few IGGs) was not a positive approach, as this was the standard way for government officials to keep the private sector on the sidelines. A joint meeting with the private sector representatives as full participants would be more effective.

183. Some NGOs were pleased with being allowed to be observers at these official FAO meetings. However, others saw FAO as being one of the most difficult international organizations to access; although it should be noted that ESC was considered to be one of the more easily accessible areas within FAO.

2. Future of the CCP and the IGGs

184. With the greatly reduced involvement of governments in agricultural markets there appears to be much less government interest in the CCP and the IGGs. This applies particularly to the major crops where private sector activity is dominant and industry associations have the most up-to-date data and provide a considerable amount of analysis of short-term market movements. The same cannot be said for minor commodities such as hard fibres.

185. Given the limited involvement of government in most commodity markets, the official nature of the CCP and IGG meetings mean that they have clear limitations in terms of relevance. Running parallel informal meetings to involve the private sector, NGOs, and other stakeholders seems an expensive way to get around this problem. The inclusion of non-official observers at the official meetings offers only limited scope for their involvement because their participation would have to be restricted.

186. It would appear useful, therefore, to examine closely the value of the present arrangements and commodity coverage, paying particular attention to the extent of private sector activity in the market for each commodity, the degree of official interest in the meetings, and the topics in which there is interest. The cost of these meetings should also be considered, especially in the light of the Organization's budget constraints. Following the review, it may be decided that a reduced number of commodities could be covered by IGGs. This would free up resources to fund a greater involvement of non-official stakeholders in official meetings and fund parallel informal meetings.

187. The listing of publications in Annex 5 shows the papers presented to the CCP and IGG meetings over a period of approximately 12 years. The list demonstrates the effort the Division has devoted to these meetings and the issues that have been seen to be important. These analyse the impact of multilateral trade negotiations on commodity markets, changes and trends in major exporting countries (often China or India), sanitary and phytosanitary issues and emerging issues such as value chains, genetically modified foods, niche markets, and so on.

188. In countries and institutions visited, the ET encountered wide support for the idea of regional commodities meetings, with a focus on matters of interest to commodity producers in the region, and presentation of analytical papers on longer-term trends in commodity markets. Programming meetings of this kind has obvious resource implications; however, the Division is encouraged to continue to move in these directions.

189. A further alternative for the future of the CCP and the IGGs was suggested during discussions with members of the ongoing Independent External Evaluation of FAO: the meetings of the CCP and the IGGs could be held jointly in Geneva with UNCTAD and WTO, seeking to take advantage of the country trade representatives in Geneva rather than the non-specialised representatives to FAO in Rome. A week of meetings and events could combine the CCP with short meetings of the IGGs. Informal sessions including private sector and industry representatives could focus on emerging issues for commodities and trade and inform trade negotiators and lobbyists of particular interests of the sector, while formal sessions would permit discussion of markets, trade and commodities outside the strict negotiating framework of the WTO. Even better would be to include representatives of the private sector in the formal meetings through some agreed mechanism, such as possibly including them in government delegations.

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E. Periodicals, Publications, the Internet, and Communicating FAO's Message

190. This review of communications quality and communications capacity of ESC and related divisions in work on commodities and trade examines ESC publications, based on the peer review of a selection of documents by the Expert Panel and the ET and on a summary citations analysis, as well as reviewing the commodities and trade Web presence and related internet traffic, and a proposal for a new Web site.

1. Peer Reviews by the Expert Panel and the ET

191. Annex V contains a list of the publications of ESC. A sample of 20 publications was selected to be representative of the publication categories listed and reviewed by the Expert Panel and the ET - these are shaded in the publications list. A summary of the reviewers' reports is presented in the following paragraphs.

192. Generally, the reviews were positive about the relevance, quality and appearance of the publications and their fit with the perceived mission of FAO. In most cases the technical quality of the papers was judged to be reasonably good. Some of the publications were judged to contain original work that contributed to the commodity analysis and trade issues that the reviewers felt were the responsibility of ESC.

193. The categories of publications include Series and Major Studies, Background Documents of FAO Meetings, Trade and the WTO Negotiations, Market Analysis and Outlook, Environment, ESC Papers in the FAO Economic and Social Development Papers Series, and Miscellaneous Publications and Discontinued Series. From the Series and Major Studies group six papers were reviewed. All were judged as "very good". The only criticism was that some of the data and tables could have been made available on the Web to save time and funds.

194. Three of these publications deserve special attention. "The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2004" is a new biennial publication and is one of the "flagship" publications of FAO. It is assessed as being relevant and technically very good. The report's focus on the impact of commodity market developments on income and food security was seen to be highly appropriate. The reviewer noted that FAO/ESC is the only organization that has the capacity to produce such a publication on a regular basis as it brings together available expertise on agricultural production, trade and food security.

195. The "Issues in the Global Tobacco Economy" study was very controversial when published. The study was carried out jointly with WHO, which looked at the consumer side. The issue addressed by FAO and WHO was how to reduce the health hazards from smoking. The controversy arose from the fact that tobacco is a major export of some developing countries. The study did a good job of laying out the alternatives for limiting supply to acting on the demand side to reduce the health hazards. The conclusions of the study were that there should be a focus on the demand side but with efforts to develop alternative cash crops for the developing economies hardest hit by the coming reductions in demand.

196. The other paper of note in the Series and Major Studies group is actually two papers on the "OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook" for years 2004/05 and 2005/06. This publication represents the output from the new modelling and analytical capacity that ESC has developed together with OECD to do projections and policy analysis, and is a good example of the cooperation or partnering efforts that have been stressed in this evaluation report. We recommend that this publication become the flagship of the commodity market analysis work of ESC. It can also serve as an inducement for the ICBs to join with ESC in improving the short-term commodity outlook information and analysis.

197. The FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Papers and the FAO Trade Policy Briefs reviewed were also rated well in terms of relevance, targeting, and technical quality. Production of the Trade Policy Briefs has been supported by DFID. They are designed to give a

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straightforward overview of trade policy issues relating to particular agricultural products. This is an example of how FAO might be able to raise funds to support its work, and an example of studies that are designed for educated but not technically expert readers. The ET found that policy briefs like these, produced on a timely basis on topical issues can be very useful particularly to developing countries.

198. A review was also carried out of the Rice Market Monitor, a bi-monthly publication that received a reasonably good evaluation, although it was noted that the analytical content was at times fairly shallow. This is an example of a major commodity that does not have an active ICB and for which FAO delivers a service by providing short-term outlook and analysis. The added value of the publication was assessed to be in the bringing together of a large amount of relevant material. The Rice Market Monitor is an example of where ESC should continue doing the short-term outlook analysis but perhaps less frequently.

199. Finally, mention must be made of the FAO flagship publication The State of Food and Agriculture (SOFA - prepared by ESA). The 2005 edition of SOFA was on "Agricultural Trade and Poverty – Can trade work for the poor?" As this publication was not produced by ESC, it was not reviewed in detail for this evaluation. However it was cited to the ET more than once as an example of the poor interaction between the two divisions, since in spite of the direct relevance of its subject matter to ESC, this division was only involved when asked for comments on a finished draft of the document.

2. Views from Member Countries on the Focus of Analytical Studies

200. The issues that most of the member countries visited see as needing better understanding are those on which the Division is already working or has indicated that it would like to work. Besides the issues of product differentiation, standards (including use of standards as TBTs) and marketing chains, topics suggested include tariff escalation facing processed products (likely to become more of an issue with attempts at product differentiation), the interrelationships between regional and bilateral trading agreements and WTO negotiations, bio-fuels, "fair trade", impacts of animal rights groups' activities on commodity markets, and the impact of China's economic growth and the development of its agricultural sector on the rest of the world. This is a large list and, as recommended, ESC should focus on only a few topics and develop its reputation for work in these areas.

201. However, points that came through clearly from the in-country interviews, as well as the questionnaire, were that the Divisions' research is not well known and among those who are familiar with its research there is a feeling that the research programme is not well organized. For example, among the ministries of agriculture in the Caribbean, ESC was not seen as being prominent among organizations doing research on marketing and trade policy. Clearly, more needs to be done by the Division to raise its profile.

202. Experts at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) in the UK as well as Oxfam's head of research said that the quality of ESC research was "excellent" but that it could be better focused and concentrated on themes so that the Division would be known world-wide for its work in certain areas. It appeared to them that the Division's research tends to be opportunistic and driven by individual interests. As these interviewees saw it, the research agenda of ESC is difficult to perceive, and if there is one, not well communicated.

203. As regards the role of research within ESC, it was noted that while the Division should not be principally a "research" body, it should aim to have credibility for its work within academic circles. Generally, however, the analytical work of the Division should address the practical concerns of member countries. Further, it was suggested on several occasions that the Division could play a role as a "broker" of research output on commodities and trade issues: making the research and the applications available to policy makers, and where needed doing applied research on key issues.

204. There were a variety of views about "bias" in ESC's analysis of important issues. For instance, among NGOs a commonly held view is that ESC is too sympathetic to the positions of the World

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Bank, WTO and IMF on trade policy. On the other hand, within many developing country governments and academia there is suspicion of the trade policy modelling undertaken by the OECD and the World Bank while FAO is seen as more "neutral".

205. The NGOs believe that FAO should try to see trade liberalisation more from the point of view of farmers' organizations and produce more "independent" analysis (there is a tendency to seek a more sympathetic treatment of government intervention in trade as a means of protecting "family farms"). ESC, and FAO more generally, should treat the views of these representatives of smallholder agricultural producers more seriously. This is not to say that their viewpoints should be necessarily adopted but that they must be recognised as widely held views and discussed fully.

206. The focus of FAO studies on "the impact of trade liberalization on the poor" (the subject of ESA's State of Food and Agriculture 2005 edition) was seen by some Latin American commentators as not appropriate for that region. Rather, it was suggested that FAO's focus should be on how to help poor smallholder farmers become part of the market supply chain and benefit from trade liberalisation.

207. The ET noted that in Brazil, Egypt and Chile there is a strong focus on primary commodity production and exports as drivers of growth - in fact, much stronger than appears to be the case in ESC. Moreover, that there is very little work being done in these areas by other international agencies. Hence, there is potentially a very large role here for ESC.

208. The impact of agricultural trade liberalization on the general farming sector in developing countries is an area of both donor and developing country interest. Some commentators felt that analysis in ESC and ESA is not going sufficiently in depth into this issue.

3. Summary Review of Citations

209. The Citations Index Review is an alternative method of assessing the quality of ESC publications. The Thompson ISI Citation Index, which is the most comprehensive of the citation indices, was used for this evaluation. Its results were supplemented by searches through "GOOGLE Scholar". We took the names of the professionals in ESC listed as authors in the "Publications of the FAO Commodities and Trade Division" and made an inquiry about the citations reported in the index. There are various ways to classify the citations. We used papers cited and the number of cites as the simplest criteria. These criteria were used since the number of citations was limited. The citations were from 1998 to 2006, i.e., the citations to publications dated or released between 1998 and 2006. Where it was obvious that the citation was to authors who are not full-time employees of FAO, only the paper mentioned in the ESC Publications List was listed and searched for citations. The results of this search of the index by authors of the main ESC papers and books are summarized in Table 10 below.

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Table 10: Citations of Commodities and Trade Division Staff and Consultants, 1998-2006

FAO author no. of

papers cited no. of cites

Sarris AH 8 30 Hallam D 1 1 Liu P 0 0 Mikkel Andersen 0 0 Pazderka C 0 0 Lavers G 0 0 Pilkauskas P 0 0 Claro J 0 0 Dankers C 1 1 Conforti P 0 0 Prakash A 0 0 Josling T & Valdes A 0 0 Morgan N 0 0 Mantzou E 0 0 Zant W 2 3 Ramesh Sharma 4 18 Nyange D 0 0 Duteutre G 0 0 Salvate L 0 0 Poonyth D 0 1 Karagiannis G 0 1 Shui S 0 0 Koizumi T 0 0

Cited Reference Search, Thompson ISI Web of Knowledge http://portal.isiknowledge.com/portal.cgi; GOOGLE Scholar

210. It should be noted that this is a partial citation listing. It is possible to obtain citations for publications that are not authored and that are listed under "FAO", as is the case for many of ESC's publications. A sample search from the publications citations was made and there were some, but not as many as might be thought. Still, this would be a good exercise for the staff to undertake periodically to determine the use patterns of their publications. It could be a feature of the new Web page design for the Division and in fact, could be done automatically.

211. Other means of showing the qualifications of the staff and consultants would be to provide their CVs on the Web page. This would give outsiders a feel for the competencies of the staff. It would also give staff incentives to publish in refereed journals. Not that their work should be intended for refereed journals, but it is good to report on work already done to obtain a professional assessment of the approaches used and results of the research, as a way of vetting the substance of the FAO work and giving the profession an opportunity to review the results of the work. As the trend in funding mechanisms evolves towards seeking a larger proportion of extra-budgetary resources, it will be more important for FAO and in particular the ESC staff to be published in credible journals. The objection that this takes time is not necessarily valid, as researchers and analysts are close to their work and can usually publish with little added effort. This will be more important as ESC puts greater effort into developing serious partnerships.

4. Web Presence and Internet Usage

212. The main FAO portal for commodities and trade related information is the ESC website "Commodities and Trade" (http://www.fao.org/es/esc/en/index.html). In addition, there is a site specifically on trade and trade policy issues, in particular related to WTO, entitled "Trade in Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries" (http://www.fao.org/trade/index_en.asp), and maintained by the PAIA ("priority area for interdisciplinary action") on Assistance for WTO Negotiations. In addition, the ESC maintains a "Prices" site giving latest market prices for all important agricultural

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commodities, generally updated to within one to two weeks. Another very important source of information on commodities and trade is the FAO Statistics Division (ESS) database FAOSTAT, and its recently redesigned Web site (http://faostat.fao.org/). FAOSTAT includes several tools for looking at historical series on markets, prices and trade by country or region and between country pairs, though as noted elsewhere the database is still two years out of date.

213. The Commodities and Trade Web site is organized principally by commodity, providing links to publications and other information regarding FAO activities tied to that commodity. Links are provided to the Trade site, to FAOSTAT, to the price database, to an out-of-date Meetings and Events page, and to the Global Information and Early Warning System site (part of ESC but outside the purview of this evaluation). Visually, the site is modelled on FAO's standard format and has an institutional, rather colourless interface, with no pictures or illustrations of any kind, and with static content, of which most is somewhat out of date. This contrasts with the Trade site, the GIEWS site, and even the FAOSTAT site, all of which are much more lively. ESC is planning a complete update of its Web site, and should definitely consider developing a new and more attractive user interface.

214. The Web site should be seen as the Division's main vehicle for dissemination of its publications and data. Suggestions to improve website dissemination are: present output in "clusters"; research and present work thematically; provide a facility for people to sign up for material and to be advised of events; and analyse Web site "hits". Also, it is important to have short pieces that communicate the results of work in such a fashion that the major findings can be available without reading all of the details.

215. The FAO organizational Web site is visited altogether about 3 million times each month.6 Of these, 40-45,000 visits are to the commodities and trade related Web sites (ESC, Trade and a rough estimate of about 10% of FAOSTAT visits). This ranks as medium traffic levels in comparison with other FAO divisional Web sites (ranging from 1000-5000 visits per month for most divisions to a high of over 100,000 visits for some of the more popular ones).

216. Visits to the Web site would no doubt be higher if the main FAO portal, organised according to FAO's opaque internal structure, was itself more user friendly. A significant number of interviewees told the ET that the FAO site was quite difficult to navigate, and in particular that it was not easy to find the commodities and trade information. If coming through the FAO homepage, a user must know that to get to commodities and trade information he or she must click on "Economics and Statistics" in the side column, to arrive at the page labelled "Economic and Social Department". Again in the side column, one must find the "Commodities and Trade Division", after which it is easier. However the majority of visitors come through external search engines such as Google or Yahoo. Very few of the visitors (only 5-10%) reach the pages from links on other Web sites, an indication that FAO's commodities and trade resources are either not very well known, or not considered worth linking to.

217. In terms of origins of users, 35-40% of pages viewed each month are by visitors coming through the servers in the United States, while no other country even reaches 10%, including the EU as a group (generally under 5% of page visits). Interestingly, about half of the top ten search phrases used to reach the site every month are in Spanish, indicating strong interest from Latin America. This is likely related both to the great importance of agricultural export commodities in the economies of countries in that region, and to the very active and rather independent FAO Regional Office in Santiago.

218. The search words and phrases most commonly used in reaching the site indicate that users are much more likely to come to the site looking for information on horticultural products, both fruits and vegetables, than any other commodity. Terms like fruits, tropical fruits, citrus, banana, and fruits and

6 Web visit statistics were available only from December 2005 when a new system for collection and analysis of this data was introduced. Previous data made no distinction between actual visits to the sites and mechanical hits by so-called 'crawlers' gathering web addresses. The ET was thus able to analyse data from 12-05 to 9-06.

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vegetables are consistently in the top ten most used search terms. The only other commodities appearing in a significant number of cases are "sugar" and "pulses", and to a lesser degree, the Spanish word for "jute". This reflects the fact that FAO is the only global organization that collects and disseminates information on the so-called 'minor' commodities, including horticultural products. This supports the ET's view that ESC needs to strengthen activities in this area and be at the forefront of issues on these types of commodities.

F. Direct Technical Assistance to Member Countries

1. General issues

219. When visiting member countries and institutions, the ET sought to elicit views on the importance and priority of FAO's assistance and services to them in the area of commodities and trade. This included their view of where FAO's comparative advantage lies in terms of technical assistance, and comparing FAO's provision of support to that coming from other sources.

220. Regarding the country level services FAO provides, assistance with multilateral trade negotiations and provision of data and market information were frequently mentioned, especially in developing countries. Apart from a few specific cases tied to particular commodities (e.g., tea, hard fibres), rather lower priority was given to the global intergovernmental meetings hosted by FAO such as the CFC and the IGGs (see below).

221. Countries were also requested in the evaluation questionnaire to express their views on the importance of FAO's commodities and trade activities, and were asked for an assessment of current activities including information and projections, outlook work, policy advice, assistance for trade negotiations, and the intergovernmental commodity bodies hosted by FAO (the CCP and the IGGs). Overall, the replies attributed fairly high importance to most of these activities, averaging between 7 and 8 on a scale of 10, with slightly lower scores for the commodity bodies (6 out of 10), as in the country visits. Direct advice on formulating and implementing commodity policies was also often given a low score. Regionally, the highest scores were those of Latin America and the Caribbean, the Near East and OECD countries, and the lowest those of Africa. This result would appear to be correlated with the importance of international trade issues to the various regions. Table 11 below gives a summary of the responses.

222. On examining the responses more carefully, two interesting observations emerged. First, ministries of trade or commerce tended to give lower scores (between 4 and 6) than ministries of agriculture. This outcome is consistent with the ET's findings from the country visits. That is, except in rare cases where there was a close working relationship between the ministry of agriculture and the trade or commerce ministry, the latter were quite uninformed about the services of FAO. Second, almost all of the responses rated the activities related to the CCP and the IGGs lower in importance that the other activities listed, which is again consistent with the ET's findings indicating that these bodies are far less relevant today than when they were created and are in need of some reform.

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Table 11: Scoring of importance of selected FAO services (average scores by region on a scale of 1-10 where 10 is the best)

Africa Asia Latin Am. & Caribbean

Near East

OECD Countries

Average all countries

Information services on world agric. commodity market situation/outlook

6.4 7.1 8.9 8.2 7.3 7.6

The FAO Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP) and its IGGs

5.6 6.2 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.0

Advising developing countries on national commodity policies

6.3 7.0 7.6 7.3 7.0 7.0

Providing comm/trade policy analyses & support to trade negotiations

6.2 7.3 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.5

223. The questionnaire also sought to elicit respondents' opinions regarding the level and qualities of FAO's commodities and trade assistance in their country, as given in Table 12 below:

Table 12: Views on FAO's commodities and trade work

Agree Dis-

agree No Res

1. FAO's work on commodities and trade is well known in your country 54% 42% 4% 2. FAO has been responsive to your country's expressed needs in

commodities and trade 54% 29% 17%

3. FAO is not presently addressing your country's needs related to commodities and trade

40% 40% 20%

4. FAO cooperates well on matters of commodities and trade with other national and international partners in your country

62% 23% 15%

5a. FAO's work on commodities and trade is useful to the Public Sector/Government

81% 8% 11%

5b. FAO's work on commodities and trade is useful to the Private Sector 40% 27% 33%

224. Going from last to first we see that the observations made during country visits about the need for better connections with the private sector are reinforced. FAO does surprisingly well on cooperation within the country. The issue raised often during the country visits regarding the lack of visibility of FAO's commodities and trade work is in evidence, and is a clear signal that, as was found in many countries, FAO is seen as providing only limited country assistance in this field, and was judged not to be very responsive to country requests when it does.

2. Information and Publications

225. The effectiveness of the dissemination of FAO's information and publications products to member countries appears to be heavily dependent upon the FAO country and Regional Offices. A few of the local FAO country offices visited appeared to be very helpful in informing the government and the private sector about the information that is made available on the FAO website. Most FAO Representatives were less involved in the dissemination efforts however.

226. The questionnaire asked respondents about familiarity with and use of FAO's commodities and trade publications (printed or electronic) and the Web site for commodities and trade information. Of those responding, 88% indicated that they were familiar with the FAO publications, while 73% were familiar with the Web site (9% left this latter question blank). The perceived usefulness of these two sources of information received average scores of 6.4 and 7.5 out of 10, respectively, indicating the increasing appreciation of Internet as a medium for dissemination. However, as could be expected, African countries rated Web site usefulness at only 5.9, reflecting the more limited access in that region. On the other hand, OECD respondents averaged a low 5.3 on usefulness of publications, possibly owing to greater availability of alternative sources in these countries.

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227. It was clear that ESC should attempt to disseminate its output more effectively, and try to make sure that it gets to the appropriate people. The concept of e-mail discussion groups that is already being used by some commodity analysts in ESC is a good idea, as they could be used to raise awareness of new information becoming available and as a forum for discussion of issues.

228. An excellent example of what FAO can do to very effectively link the policy advice side of its work with the information side is the highly successful biennial International Cotton Conference, jointly organized by ESC, China's Research Centre for the Rural Economy (RCRE), and the China National Cotton Exchange. This event has been an excellent forum for the exchange of information between producers and consumers, importers and exporters, and traders, as well as between these audiences and knowledge and support institutions like FAO. Over the seven years that the conference has been held, the number of participants has grown from 90 to over 700. FAO financial and other support to the conference is limited but has been very valuable and even critical in getting the conference started and maintaining its quality.

229. This kind of initiative, where strong interest in the sector means that the host country is willing also to participate financially, could be pursued for other commodity areas and with other countries. It is a highly effective (and low-cost) means through which to disseminate the work and policy advice of ESC to the right people in the right context.

3. Advice to Governments on Trade Policy

230. ESC provides advice to governments in several ways: through direct interaction between FAO staff and government counterparts in-country or in the context of meetings, through publications and information materials, or through the intergovernmental fora such as the CCP and IGGs. Much takes the form of training work, often jointly done with TCA (see section on Training below). As noted above in Section V.A.1, the main trade policy issues of interest expressed by countries during the ET fieldwork were (i) health and quality standards and TBTs; (ii) market reforms and private sector market participation; (iii) marketing value chains or integrated marketing systems; and (iv) product differentiation. ESC is involved in work on all of these policy areas, but this was often not known to the interviewees.

231. The questionnaire also asked respondents what specific areas of trade policy that FAO is working in were of greatest interest to them. With the lone exception of the Near East, all others give highest priority to FAO services in the area of non-tariff trade barriers, such as sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures. The Latin American countries average 9.8/10 on this topic. This follows expectations given FAO's global role in animal and plant health and standards, genetic resources, and the Codex Alimentarius. There is less uniformity in the other areas, though assistance with free trade agreements and regional trade agreements are generally assigned a higher priority than support to WTO negotiations. These results match with responses received in the field, where interviewees time and again stressed the growing importance of FTAs and regional arrangements.

4. Training

232. ESC has carried out a considerable amount of training in trade policy in developing countries. It was noted on several occasions that the training has raised considerably the level of discussion about trade policy. The quality of the training was said by a wide majority of interviewees to be "excellent". It was also noted by several commentators that the study and training on Special and Sensitive Products was well done and was proving very useful in the WTO trade negotiations. The FAO Geneva Office was also commended for the provision of excellent advice on trade policy and trade negotiations. Of the countries responding to the evaluation questionnaire, 72% had participated in FAO training activities.

233. However, within FAO Regional Offices there was concern expressed that ESC was working directly with countries and not working through the specialised regional officers in the Policy Assistance Branches (under TCA). As a result, the internalization of the training within the region may not be as thorough as it might otherwise be. This comment was made both by the Regional

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Office staff and by recipients of the training and their supervisors. It was also noted that training had mainly involved lower-level staff in ministries and that it would be desirable to attempt to involve top-level people. The view was also expressed that there should be a greater focus in training on trade policy rather than only on trade negotiations.

234. In countries, comments were also made to the effect that it was preferable for training to be undertaken at the country level, rather than at the regional level - similar comments were made with respect to research. However, such a shift would have important resource implications for ESC and is unlikely to be possible on a large scale in the near future.

235. ESC has received donor support to assist developing countries to understand the implications of the Agreements on Agriculture negotiated under the WTO Uruguay Round and in developing strategies in response to these agreements. Support has also been received for assistance to developing countries in developing negotiating strategies for the WTO Doha Round. However, it was suggested that the analysis undertaken in the projects could have gone more deeply into the socio-economic implications of trade liberalization for the developing countries and their needs in terms of mechanisms, including capacity building, for coping with the resulting structural adjustments. The analysis carried out was too focussed on the position of exporters (border protection, SPS, TBTs, etc.) and did not give sufficient attention to what happens behind the border.

236. While there was support for ESC work in assisting developing countries with negotiating strategies for the Doha Round, there was concern that FAO should maintain its neutrality and not attempt to become a part of the WTO negotiation process (a particular example was given on food aid). For example, during interviews in developed countries the ET heard the view that ESC's activities in this area - specifically some of the analysis it has undertaken and some of conferences and workshops it has held - are the prerogative of the WTO, and that ESC should confine its activities to technical assistance.

5. Results of Country Assistance and Future directions

237. FAO's role in ongoing WTO negotiations is clearly a sensitive area for the developed countries. This view would appear to stem from a concern that ESC is biased towards the developing countries in its work in the trade area. If ESC is to continue with its capacity building on trade negotiations and trade policy analysis and its analysis of food aid issues, there should be an effort made to have the developed countries understand that FAO values the respect it has earned as a neutral commentator on these and other issues. On the other hand, while ESC should maintain neutrality in its analysis of the various positions taken in the debate over trade liberalization, there does not appear to be any reason for it to remove itself from analysis of priority trade issues nor to limit its role in assisting developing countries to develop trade policy analysis and negotiation skills.

238. Some countries visited also commented on the need for a clearer strategy for ESC's work on commodities and trade. The commodities and trade work was seen as unfocused, and seems to change for no apparent reason. It was argued that the emphasis in the analysis should be on the intermediate term rather than the short term and on a set of issues that make sense relative to the skills and budget of the Division. As noted, there was considerable support for the Division's joint work with the OECD Secretariat on the COSIMO medium-term model.

239. Of the countries responding to the evaluation questionnaire, 78% had received TCP assistance and 72% had participated in workshops. Asked whether assistance was meeting expectations, these two types of assistance - TCPs and training - were scored the highest: 7.5 and 7.8 out of 10, respectively. There were some regional differences: Latin America gave the highest scores, while African countries gave a lower score to TCP than other regions. This most probably reflects difficulties noted in project implementation in African countries visited by the ET. When asked where FAO had not responded to requests for assistance, only 23% of countries responded that this had happened, and in nearly all cases they referred to requests for TCP assistance that had not led to a project. This is a common problem, given the very large number of TCP requests received by FAO each year, only a part of which can be covered by available resources.

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240. Some suggestions for themes in the Division's work include commodity risk management, certification and standards, the medium-term international situation in commodity markets, water, and food safety. There was also an emphasis on the private sector and its increasing importance in international commodity markets. Work on short-term movements in commodity markets should be de-emphasised.

241. With respect to the private sector, there were issues suggested relating to supply chains. It was noted that these mechanisms are becoming more important in trade and little is known about whether and how to regulate them for desired outcomes, especially for the benefit of smallholders.

242. There was demand for more country-specific research and training by ESC. While this is desirable, the extent to which it is possible is in large part a matter of resources. Where suitable in-country research capacity is available, the possibilities for collaborative work could be explored. Perhaps this is also an opportunity for extra-budgetary funding and cooperation with the TCP.

243. With respect to training, there was concern expressed about the lack of involvement of FAO country and regional staff. Without their involvement the possibilities for internalizing the training within the region would appear to be diminished. Aiming training at the highest possible level within the public sector appears worthwhile, if changes in policies and practices are to be expected.

244. It is clear from the discussions that ESC has to find ways to raise its profile. Some of the ideas described above could be helpful. A visible and concerted effort towards this end would be well received by the country representatives. When asked to compare FAO as a source of assistance to other sources in various aspects of commodities and trade, overall about two thirds of the responses indicated that FAO's assistance was considered as good as or better than that of others, and one quarter considered FAO to be significantly better. In two areas however, a significant number rated FAO worse than others: in policy assistance and in analysis of emerging issues (respectively 19% and 15% of respondents gave this answer). This result is significant since the evolution of the work of ESC is directing it more towards trade policy and emerging issues. There will be a need for ESC to better affirm itself as a provider of services in these areas that are not already provided (better) by others.

245. With the rapid development of product differentiation in the marketing of primary commodities, it has become difficult to undertake useful commodity market analysis without information about what is taking place in these fragmented markets. Clearly, therefore, ESC will have to devise ways to gain access to this information which is mostly held within the private sector. Partnerships with the private sector would appear to be a direction to explore in gaining such access.

246. ESC needs to make a clear distinction between the commodity market analysis that it is doing and that of UNCTAD, although there are clearly many areas of analysis and policy in which they can usefully collaborate.

VI. KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FAO'S WORK IN COMMODITIES AND TRADE

A. General Recommendations

247. The present mandate of the EST Division is shown in paragraph 42. The new divisional structure that has been adopted to satisfy this mandate is described in Section IV.C.4 (paras. 48-53), and the new programme entities for the Division are shown in Table 3.

248. It is a general recommendation of the ET that the Management of the Division continue with the re-orientation of the Division in the directions reflected in the new divisional structure and

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the work programme. However, there are strategic issues that the ET recommends receive further attention. These include:

(i) the development of partnerships;

(ii) the development of incentives to stimulate collaboration within EST, between EST and other divisions, and between EST and other organizations; and

(iii) the selection of a limited number of priority themes around which to focus the Division's commodity market and trade analysis.

249. The directions for the evolution of EST that the ET recommends include the following:

a) Reduce the emphasis on short-term commodity market behaviour and increase the emphasis on in-depth analysis of medium- to long-term market trends and medium-term projections, including for example through the formation of broader partnerships with the ICBs in developing the outlook and analysis of commodity markets. The shift towards more in-depth analysis of commodity markets should help member countries achieve more efficient, more equitable, and more transparent trade in agricultural products.

b) Develop partnerships with the private sector through ICBs and industry associations to undertake analysis of supply networks and value chains. The private sector now undertakes much of the commodity trade, and knowledge about supply networks has become much more important in understanding commodity market behaviour.

c) Broaden cooperation between EST and other organizations that are involved in international and domestic markets, including universities, other research organizations, and NGOs.

d) Continue to strongly support the plans for improving the FAOSTAT system. The demands on EST to maintain databases for short- and long-term commodity analysis can be reduced through the planned improvements of the FAOSTAT database.

e) Design incentive systems within EST to expand extra-budgetary resources, improve collaboration within FAO, and increase partnerships with other organizations. Successful outcomes will require careful discussion within the Division, including examination of successful experiences elsewhere, to identify incentives that are compatible with these various objectives.

f) Improve management of CFC and other extra-budgetary funded projects to overcome issues of delays and non-delivery of outputs encountered by ET.

g) Select a limited number of thematic areas around which to structure the work of the Division, promote internal and external cooperation, and enhance dissemination. The successful use of themes for these purposes should allow EST to become a centre of excellence in the selected areas and raise its profile internationally.

h) Experiment with different structures for the IGGs, using FAO's convening capacity to bring together stakeholders from the public and private sectors to improve exchange of data and information on commodity markets.

i) Maintain the focus of the Division's analytical work on the practical concerns of member countries. The Division should also continue to make relevant research on commodities and trade that is produced elsewhere available to policy makers in member countries. A greater relative proportion of the Division's work programme should be devoted to direct technical support to member countries - as opposed to headquarters-based activities such as research, servicing meetings, publications.

j) Given its mandate to provide assistance to individual developing countries on trade and commodity policies (see bullets 5 and 6 in paragraph 42), EST must ensure that the results of its analytical work are made available in easily accessible and user-friendly

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forms (as is being done in the context of a DFID-funded project). Where requested and to the extent that resources allow, Division staff should also provide training and capacity building assistance on a country and regional basis.

B. Specific Recommendations

250. The detailed recommendations below expand on the general recommendations made above.

1. Relations with the Private Sector

a) Together with ministries involved in trade, develop programs with major private sector players in commodity trade. The objective would be to determine on a pilot basis how to procure appropriate data and undertake joint analysis in order to address trade and marketing issues. When there is sufficient experience, expand this effort to all willing FAO countries.

b) Work closely with other relevant divisions (ESA, AGS, etc.) to develop a work programme on selected value chains/supply networks to determine how they operate and how FAO can work with the private sector and governments to expand marketing opportunities for developing economies. This analysis should also yield information about how to regulate these markets.

c) Work closely with other divisions to assist in the development of institutions that will allow smallholders to participate in integrated marketing networks. This work will enable countries to ensure that the benefits of trade are widely distributed.

d) Expand the work programme on certification and private specifications and standards for agricultural products, which is aimed at evaluating their impact on the trade of developing countries.

2. Government

e) Identify channels of communication in member governments for the discussion of commodity trade matters and the distribution of information about commodity trade. These links should become part of FAO's set of contacts with member governments. Ensure that trade related materials and information are disseminated to all relevant ministries in member countries.

f) Develop a programme of conferences or training sessions on agricultural trade for the staff of the ministries with direct or indirect responsibility for trade (see recommendation A(j)). These activities should be carried out with and through TCA decentralised staff. The purpose of this training would be to build the capacities of the ministries in marketing and trade of agricultural products. Private sector stakeholders should be included in these training sessions. Ministries must be able to work with these agents if they are to design effective trade and marketing programmes.

g) Give close attention to bilateral and regional trade agreements and their interaction with multi-lateral arrangements, in addition to continuing the work being done on WTO issues. Many countries attach great importance to the impact of these trade agreements.

h) Work with governments to increase cooperation on agriculture commodity trade between ministries of agriculture and trade, commerce and other ministries.

i) Do further analysis of the consequences of health and safety standards for developing country trade in agricultural products.

3. International Commodity Bodies (ICBs)

j) Develop stronger partnership arrangements with these organizations to enhance commodity market analysis. The ET specifically noted the importance of promoting cooperation with the International Grains Council on grains, oilseeds and rice. Elements of the

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existing arrangements with the International Coffee Organization and the International Cotton Advisory Committee could be used in setting up this cooperation. Other possibilities for development of partnership arrangements are ICBs for cocoa and sugar.

4. U.N. Conference on Trade and Development

k) Coordinate work programmes more effectively with UNCTAD. The ET found the work programmes of the two organizations appear to be dealing with similar topics, and therefore closer collaboration to nurture complementarities would be of great benefit to member governments.

5. The Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP)

l) Use the CCP agenda to bring key issues more effectively to the forefront, such as mechanisms for lowering transaction costs of smallholder participation in marketing chains, development of commodity risk management instruments, impacts of private standards and health and safety standards on agricultural trade, and interrelationships between bilateral and regional trade arrangement and WTO agreements. To encourage the participation of officials from member countries with in-depth knowledge of trade issues relating to agricultural products, the ET recommends holding occasional CCP meetings in Geneva.

6. Inter-Governmental Commodity Groups

m) Encourage involvement of the private sector and NGOs more directly in the IGGs. This can be done, for example, through greater inclusion of these stakeholders in the government delegations, as well as by conducting informal sessions in connection with the IGG meetings (as is being done to some extent already). Pursue the concept of regional meetings on commodity market and trade issues of particular interest to the region (something which the Division has already begun) to the extent that resources allow. This could be an alternative to the present format of some of the IGGs.

n) A further alternative for the future of the CCP and the IGGs is that meetings of the CCP and the IGGs could be held jointly in Geneva with UNCTAD and WTO. A week of meetings and events could combine the CCP with short meetings of the IGGs, bringing in a wider range of participation. Informal sessions including private sector and industry representatives could focus on emerging issues for commodities and trade and inform trade negotiators and lobbyists of particular interests of the sector, while formal sessions would permit discussion of markets, trade and commodities outside the strict negotiating framework of the WTO. Means to include representatives of the private sector in the formal meetings through some agreed mechanism, such as possibly including them in government delegations, should be a priority.

7. FAOSTAT

o) EST commodity analysts should continue to be an integral part of the planned upgrade of FAOSTAT (see recommendation A(d)), contributing their skills and knowledge to updating and upgrading the quality of the FAOSTAT data related to commodities and trade. More timely and better quality commodity and trade data maintained within FAOSTAT should reduce the demands on EST and allow more time for economic analysis and intelligence gathering. Analysts in member countries would also be in a better position to undertake short-term analysis.

8. NGOs

p) More effectively engage relevant NGOs in the policy dialogue, such as through convening an annual or biannual NGO conference on commodity and trade issues. Many NGOs have become a major force in discussions of development policy, including commodity and trade policy.

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9. Research Institutions

q) Increase cooperation with academic and other research organisations, in particular in developing countries. A major focus of these cooperative efforts could be to assist in developing data systems on private sector involvement in domestic and international markets to increase capacities in this area. Also, they could work with the relevant ministries in building capacity in the analysis of marketing and trade. This could be done with modest financial support and the cooperation of the FAO Country Representative.

C. Divisional Issues

251. In addition to the recommendations on the external forces affecting the Division (section B above), there are important issues within the Division on which the ET wishes to make recommendations. These are listed below.

1. Modelling Capabilities

a) The ET recommends that EST be careful not to over-commit to the maintenance of large scale models. If the Division wishes to make use of large scale models that are not in-house, they can be accessed by partnership agreements with organizations that operate them as their speciality. The one large scale model that we see as essential to the new structure of EST is COSIMO. This model provides the capacity to draw the ICBs into cooperative short-term outlook work and forms the platform for the normative work on trade and marketing. It is also a capacity that can be enhanced by partnership agreements similar to those with OECD, for example, with the larger, more advanced developing countries.

2. Incentives within the Division

b) The Division should adopt an incentives system that is compatible with its objectives of enhancing collaboration within and outside the Organization and raising extra-budgetary funds (see recommendation A(e)). The incentives should be easy to understand and communicate, enforceable, transparent and consistent, but not be so "hot" as to encourage unproductive behaviour.

3. Communications Strategy and Dissemination of Publications

c) The Division must develop a Publications, Information and Dissemination Strategy, possibly with the help of an external consultant. The idea of organizing the Strategy around the key themes of the work programme should be considered. Other ideas to consider in the development of the Strategy have been suggested in the report.

4. Thematic Research Areas

d) EST should adopt a limited set of themes for its work programme. Selection of these themes should reflect EST's comparative advantage and be forward-looking. The objectives of selecting the themes would be to communicate to the global research and development community the work areas identified, and to establish the Division as the main source of information within FAO on the topics selected. The identification of themes would also promote the development of partnerships with other international agencies and the private sector. An Appendix to this report contains some possible themes with suggestions for potential partners and ideas about the way in which the work in these areas could be developed.

D. Recommendations at Corporate Level for FAO to Consider

252. In the course of the evaluation, the team came across several issues that are not within our charge, but that should be mentioned to FAO as possibilities for change that could improve the quality

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and productivity of FAO work on commodities and trade. In part, they are linked to the three issues that underlie the recommendations made in this report: partnerships, incentives and themes for EST work. These corporate level issues are listed below, with a few related comments.

1. FAO Representatives

a) The in-country FAO representatives are key to the ability of FAO to assist countries with their commodity and trade policies. The ET encountered highly variable levels of capacity in the FAO Representations visited. This finding is consistent with the conclusions of the Evaluation of FAO's Decentralization conducted in 2004. If FAO's commodities and trade work is to be effective, it is essential for these Representatives and their staff to carry out various tasks, such as: acting as neutral convenors bringing together key agencies, ministries, industry and traders' associations, NGOs, etc.; alerting relevant FAO technical divisions in Rome and Regional Offices of assistance needs and issues in commodity markets and trade; where possible, gathering key information on commodity production, marketing and trade; ensuring effective dissemination of EST publications and information; and identifying training needs.

2. Rationalising ESA, EST and TCA Divisions

b) The divisions undertaking activities related to commodities and trade are set up in ways that may have been appropriate several years ago but these arrangements need reconsideration given the current state of commodities and trade. External commodity markets and internal markets and agricultural policy are tightly interlinked, with international trade now such a major factor. Thus the way in which work is divided between EST and ESA (and possibly also AGS) should be the subject of a careful examination to find the most rational organization for FAO's work in economic analysis of agricultural production, marketing and trade. As a corollary, the ET notes that the divisional separation of the early warning system and the food security work appears counter-intuitive.

c) In a different way, there is an issue with TCA, which is essentially an extension division, bridging between the normative and policy analysis work in headquarters and the needs of the field. The ET noted inadequate linkages between the research and analysis-oriented work of EST and the work of TCA decentralised units in the regions. The problem could be alleviated, at least in part, if EST follows the recommendation above to focus its activities around a limited number of selected themes.

3. FAOSTAT

d) FAO has plans that will make FAOSTAT much more useful to member countries for commodity and policy analysis. The ET believes strongly that the upgrading of FAOSTAT should be given the very highest priority by the Organization. The database and its accuracy and scope are critical to the work of FAO and to the service it provides to its member countries.

4. FAO Interaction with the Private Sector

e) FAO must find ways to increase partnerships with the private sector because of this sector's greatly increased involvement in agricultural marketing and trade. Thus, the question is not whether to do it, but how. EST is well placed take a leadership role in promoting this corporate change. In establishing these relationships, the ET recognises the possibility of conflicts of interest in private sector engagement and the difficulties posed by differences in culture between the public and private sectors.

5. Incentives

f) Incentives are important if FAO is to become a centre of excellence for the development and dissemination of knowledge (as suggested in the recent Director General's Reform

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Proposals). In the estimation of the Evaluation Team, the incentives of FAO are too dull for the competition that FAO faces. This issue is related to both Agency and UN System human resources policies, but needs to be addressed to introduce greater flexibility in human resource management. Incentives should encourage the attraction of funding from donors, collaboration across divisional and departmental boundaries, and collaboration with external partners.

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APPENDIX:

SUGGESTED THEMATIC AREAS FOR THE WORK OF EST DIVISION

253. EST should consider selecting a limited set of themes to provide added focus for the Division's analysis. These themes should reflect EST's comparative advantage and be forward-looking in the sense of giving a feeling of current relevance of the work of the Division. The objectives of the themes would be several: to communicate more effectively with the global development community; to establish the Division as a major source of information within FAO on the topics selected; to promote collaboration within the Division and with other divisions: and to promote the forging of partnerships with other international services providers and the private sector. The following list provides examples of themes for consideration by the Division.

1. Integrated Marketing

254. Integrated marketing is increasing rapidly in international trade. Generally it takes form in supply or value chains. Large retail grocery firms in Europe were among the first to succeed in their implementation. The ET's field discussions indicated that this way of organizing commodity markets and trading will only accelerate. There are many unanswered questions about the consequences of these integrated marketing systems for economic development. How well will smallholders be able to participate? How should these international marketing networks be regulated? What is their impact on domestic supply and demand? What are farmers' rights in the networks and will the distribution of the benefits and costs be equitable? Is there a question about the monopoly position of the sourcing firms?

255. These and other questions have led development agencies to begin to focus research and analysis on these marketing systems. Work is already underway at the World Bank, IFPRI, the private sector, and FAO. In FAO, for example, AGS, ESA, TCA and EST have undertaken projects designed to learn about and manage these integrated marketing systems. EST could take the lead within FAO on aspects of this work and manage the collaboration with outside groups interested in similar activities, thus giving more coherence to the work in FAO. This will likely be an area of normative analysis that will be of interest to developing economies for a significant period, and one in which the development of new roles for government and the private sector will emerge.

256. This area of normative analysis has close links with other topics that the Division could adopt as themes for its work programme. These are Standards and Certification and private sector health and quality standards, Commodity Risk Management, and Trade and Development. Some of these possible thematic areas are also discussed below.

2. Food Aid

257. Food Aid is gaining increased prominence as the Doha Round comes to a close. Aspects of this issue are highly relevant to FAO, which has responsibility for the early warning and food security work. Other international agencies and national governments are also involved. The World Food Programme, the EU, the USA, and the NGOs are examples of countries and organizations that will probably be forced to modify their programmes following a Doha Round agreement. About two years ago FAO adopted a policy of developing a "suite" of food security indicators, only one of which is the availability measure used today (the document on which the policy was based can be found at the URL: http://www.fivims.net/static.jspx?lang=en&page=ISS). Another indicator was based on household surveys and food intake - which is different from food availability. In addition, there was the directive to use anthropometric measures if available - which measure longer-term effects of food insecurity. Finally, rapid assessments - to gain rapid, on-the-ground knowledge about the scope and magnitude of food security crises - were included in the suite.

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258. With the restructuring of FAOSTAT, FAO, in particular EST, will be in a unique position to become the global leader in food assistance. Cooperative programmes could be set up with the previously mentioned partners and others, to gain a good understanding of the implications of the Doha Round agreements on food aid, and to make sure that the countries that need it are in a good position to know the new regulations and their implications This is an area where EST could adopt a theme that would be somewhat short-lived but gain it considerable visibility in the development community and among the developing countries and the donors. It could also be a programme in which FAO could work with NGOs in an effective way.

3. Trade and Development

259. Trade and Development is a useful title for a set of issues that are of enormous importance for those developing countries that are not achieving robust economic growth and development. On the supply side there is the critical issue of supply response in countries that are (or should be) striving to achieve growth as trade in agricultural products is liberalized. Often, the liberalization of trade exposes many in-country constraints to achieving potential supply responses to the new set of relative prices.

260. Unfortunately, it is often government interventions that are at the root of the poor or slow supply response. Possible areas for attention are: (i) political constraints, e.g. that may hold production to plans fixed for reasons of past commitments, to processing, for example; (ii) financial constraints due to the structure of the credit system; (iii) the land tenure system; (iv) markets that are not developed or where instruments that are needed for the market to operate are unavailable, such as warehouse receipts; (v) monetary and exchange rate policy; and (vi) availability and allocation schemes for water and other resources that have a history of misallocation that is difficult to change.

261. Demand side changes are also an issue ranging from: (i) the development of integrated marketing systems that are not available to all producers; (ii) government standards and certification and health and quality standards set by the private sector; (iii) distribution issues; (iv) the need for new institutions to fill gaps in the food production and distribution system; and (v) price setting and stability for producers that are tied to trade. Problems arise in that policies in many countries are developed without adequate attention to marketing and trade developments, because it has not been important in the past. When trade begins to occur or for that matter fails to occur, policies have to be implemented and institutional changes have to be fostered to take advantage of the opportunities that the liberalization of trade presents.

262. Other divisions within FAO and other organizations are beginning to address these constraints in one way or another. For example, within FAO there are divisions that address land tenure issues, access to credit, agricultural policies, as well as Codex and the IPPC. EST could develop partnerships that would provide some structure for analysis across the many issues involved.

4. Emerging countries able to change international commodity markets: Brazil, China and India

263. The rapid evolution of agricultural and economic development in Brazil, India, China and other major countries can present major puzzles for the development of agricultural and trade policy. These countries are large consumers with, as of yet, untested capacities of their agricultural sectors in deregulated systems for domestic supply. Significant questions will emerge as these countries choose paths to growth and development, especially if they continue to grow in population and income at the rates seen during recent years. There is need for careful analysis of the agricultural policies of these countries and for longer-term analysis of the impact of their economic growth on world food markets.

264. EST, in partnership with other divisions and the countries themselves, is in a good position to carry out this analysis. These countries are members of FAO and would probably welcome FAO's collaboration in undertaking such analysis. This would also provide FAO and EST with the opportunity to develop working relationships with the analysts and institutions in these countries. This could be a new way of discharging the responsibilities of the economic policy divisions of FAO,

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working with, not for, the ministries and other institutions in developing good policy advice. As the capacities of countries evolve, FAO may take a very different role in providing policy and training services - working more with the countries in developing the policy advice than as a technical assistance organization.

5. Production of Bio-fuels and Materials

265. Bio-fuels and materials produced from agricultural products are an increasingly topical issue for food production and trade and for agricultural markets. Currently, prices of fossil fuels are sufficiently high that at existing grains and oil seed prices these bio-fuels and products are competitive, both in-country and internationally. Moreover, the technology for a bio-based versus a petroleum-based economy world-wide is progressing fast enough that the question is really when, not whether, the world will move to a bio-economy.

266. What would the shift in the use of agricultural products towards energy and materials use do to the world food situation? Is there sufficient capacity to increase supplies of fuel and materials inputs from agriculture at prices that are in the range we have come to expect for basic agricultural products? Answers to these and other questions about the trade-off between agricultural products for food and energy and materials need much closer analysis than they have had to date. This is a comparatively new area for serious analysis, yet it is one that could be a signature research area for the commodities and trade focus of EST and other divisions involved in the commodities and trade work of FAO. It is a topic on which EST could cooperate with ESDG, for example. Organizing a major project on the bio-economy could be a way to establish EST and FAO as an organization not afraid to take on radical technologies and examine their impacts on the world food situation.

6. Commodity Risk Management

267. Commodity risk management through the use of derivatives has become more accepted as a field in trade and development work. The idea is simple. Countries, individual farmers, farmer organizations, and others up the food chain can determine the amount of risk that they want to take and use derivatives markets to hedge the unwanted risk. This does not mean that there must be a commodity exchange in each country. Simple exchanges that have forward contracts, for example, can suffice to make the spreading and transfer of risk possible. In fact, these concepts are at the heart of the derivatives approach - spreading and transferring of risk.

268. A major issue with this approach to the management of commodity price risk is with respect to the ability of smallholders, relative to that of large farmers and other organizations, to participate in the use of commodity risk management instruments. There are several possibilities for helping smallholders benefit from commodity risk management. All include some type of holding organization that can make the transactions economically feasible for the smallholders. This is especially important now that stock holding is not fashionable and trade barriers are coming down, exposing small and large holders to international market price risk. The same is true for governments that may, for example, be purchasing staple commodities for distribution or receiving revenue from export sales. The answer is to use the derivatives markets to transfer or share the risk that the government is in position to take. Interestingly, this is an answer to the price instability problem that was used to justify the establishment of many of the existing commodity organizations, and that is surfacing in the current WTO discussions. As well as helping farmers manage their price risk, the use of derivatives can also help them to access capital by becoming more creditworthy. Related measures, such as institutionalizing part of the supply chain (such as warehouse receipts) can also provide assistance in accessing credit. Production risk is another major risk faced by farmers. New developments in the derivatives markets, such as weather-indexed bonds, are possibilities for managing production risk.

7. Standards and Certification

269. Standards and certification are coming into play in world markets for two important reasons: First, governments are adopting safety and hygiene standards to protect consumers. These are roughly

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in four categories: chemical, pesticide, microbiological and disease. However, there is a big difference between the developed and developing nations in terms of their ability to certify that products are free of these types of risk. Tolerances are in many cases such that highly accurate instruments are required for testing and certification. These are not generally available in developing countries. Another approach to certification is the use of ISO standards for production and food processing systems, again a problem for developing countries. These problems have in many cases cut the developing countries out of access to developing country markets. There is a claim that the developed countries know this and set standards that make it impossible for the developing countries to access their markets, that is, the use of technical barriers to trade (TBTs).

270. Second, the largely private standards can also become an obstacle to trade for developing nations. These standards are more related to packaging and size and grading standards that are designed to make products appealing to consumers. Again, there is a difficulty for the developing countries. Producing to specifications, advanced grading and packaging systems, and other technology requirements are not available in developing countries. These can also be major trade barriers to the countries that wish to increase participation in international markets. Many of these private sector trade barriers are related to the supply or value chains mentioned above.

271. At issue here is the way in which developing countries and smallholders within developing countries can come into compliance on an economic basis. Should the approach be to use ISO methods to achieve certification? Should countries seek to become certified as disease free? Should countries collaborate in developing the capacity to certify by machines? These and other questions are a concern to developing nations. In future, they will likely become even more constraining. EST is in a good position to become a leader in this area of inquiry. Codex is situated within FAO. Other divisions work with animal and plant pests and diseases, the IPPC and SPS-related issues. Pesticides and chemicals are well known at FAO. A major area of service to developing nations could be developed with significant partners within and outside of FAO.

ANNEXES

ANNEX I: Methodology for the Evaluation

ANNEX II: Terms of Reference for the Evaluation

ANNEX III: Report of the First Expert Panel Meeting: Review of Issues to be Evaluated

ANNEX IV: Programme Entity Review

ANNEX V: Publications of the Commodities and Trade Division

ANNEX VI: Questionnaire Sent to Member Countries

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Annex I

Methodology for the Evaluation

272. The evaluation took place in three main stages: i) a headquarters review and initial meeting with the Peer Review Panel on the design of the evaluation; ii) field work and questionnaires in FAO member countries; and iii) the preparation of a synthesis report and the second Panel meeting to finalise the recommendations.

273. The review at FAO Headquarters examined the work of the main technical division responsible for FAO's commodities and trade activities, ESC, and led to preparation of an "Issues Paper" for presentation to an Expert Panel Workshop that was held in early February 2006. The Panel of nine global experts on trade and commodities from different institutions and regions reviewed the proposed approach and direction of the evaluation, and provided detailed guidance on the areas on which the evaluation should focus. The report of this first Expert Panel meeting is attached to this evaluation report as Annex III.

274. Following the workshop, the Evaluation Team carried out its field work, which included the following:

d. Visits to 16 developing countries in four missions to Asia, the Near East and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Africa.7 The selection of countries was based on the need for a cross-section of countries that represented various regions and levels of development and either: a) participate actively in the CCP and its IGGs on commodities; b) have been involved in FAO field activities; c) are particularly important in matters of trade in agricultural commodities (e.g., China, Brazil); or d) have expressed no interest in FAO support in this area (to understand why). The ET spent on average only three days in each country, but extensive preparations prior to arrival in the countries enabled them to meet a wide range of interviewees during this time;

e. Visits to seven major developed countries, including the USA, Japan and several European countries8, as well as the European Commission;

f. Visits to a wide range of institutions working in commodities and trade, including UNCTAD, ITC, IFPRI, World Bank, OECD, WTO, African Union, major commodity organizations and associations, research institutes and universities, and major NGOs.

275. During the country visits, the ET applied country check lists in its meetings with high-level representatives of ministries of agriculture, ministries of trade and commerce, regulatory and customs bodies, major donors and multilateral institutions, private sector associations and major companies, universities, and civil society organizations. Altogether more than 200 people were interviewed face to face by the Team. Discussions focused on country needs and capacity in commodity marketing and regional and international trade, and the extent to which interviewees were aware of and used FAO-produced assistance and outputs, including normative products. Where there were or had recently been projects, the ET also discussed the implementation and follow-up of the project interventions. With FAO's implementing partners (actual or potential), the ET discussed their assessment of country needs, and of the work carried out by FAO in that country or region. Individual working papers were prepared on these visits.

7 The countries visited were: China, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Chile, Brazil, Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Tanzania. 8 The countries visited were Japan, USA, UK, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland.

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276. Following each field mission, the ET prepared a summary regional report on main findings and recommendations arising from the mission. A separate report was prepared on the meetings with key institutions. These reports formed the background for this final report.

277. As a further means of gathering member country views, the evaluation included a questionnaire survey among FAO member countries to assess their views and suggestions on FAO's role and work in commodities and trade. The questionnaire in Annex VI was sent to almost all FAO member countries. Altogether, 47 out of about 170 countries which received it (28%) sent in 52 completed questionnaires (three countries filled in more than one). The regional breakdown is given in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Responses by region (multiple responses from same country in parentheses)

Africa 12 (+2)

Asia 7 (+3)

Latin America and Caribbean 13

Near East and North Africa 9

OECD countries 6

Total 47 (+5)

278. The evaluation also carried out, with the help of members of the Expert Panel, a peer review of key ESC publications on commodities and trade.

279. The final stage of the evaluation was the preparation of this Synthesis Report bringing together the outcomes of all the above work. The draft conclusions and recommendations of this report were discussed with the same Expert Panel that participated in the design of the evaluation at a second meeting in Rome in July 2006. The ET and the Panel worked closely together to finalize the evaluation conclusions and recommendations during that meeting, and the final version was approved by both.

280. The ET then finalised the evaluation report, after which it was circulated to FAO management for a detailed response. The timetable and phases of the evaluation were as follows:

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12-16 December 2005 Briefing/orientation of Team Leader in Rome

23 Jan - 3 Feb 2006 Preparation of an Issues and Discussion Paper involving desk studies of HQ-based projects; HQ interviews and group discussions; and review of major publications and analytical work

6-8 Feb 2006 3-day Expert Panel Meeting, to assist in identifying issues and approach for the evaluation

Feb-March 2006 • Preparation and mailing of a questionnaires to member countries

• Peer review of Commodities and Trade publications

March-June 2006 • Field missions to 16 developing countries and 7 developed countries;

• Meetings with 25 key international organizations, ICBs, research institutes, and NGOs

June-July 2006 Preparation of the draft Synthesis Report, including further discussions with ESC and other staff and management

10-12 July 2006 3-day 2nd Expert Panel Meeting with the same Panel of Experts that participated in the evaluation start-up in February. Their input was sought for the formulation of the main evaluation recommendations.

March 2007 Finalisation of the Synthesis Report; delivery to Senior Management for preparation of the Management Response

May 2007 Presentation and discussion of the final Evaluation Report and the Management Response to the FAO Programme Committee at its 97th session

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Annex II Terms of Reference for the Evaluation

EVALUATION OF FAO'S WORK IN COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES

December 2005 - August 2006

Background

281. The growing importance of globalisation of agricultural production and trade and its direct and indirect effects on poverty and food security has given FAO's work on commodities and international trade new significance. Traditional approaches under controlled internal and external commodity markets have been changing. The enormous importance of international trade negotiations in the context of the World Trade Organisation have become central to the agricultural and export economies of many countries. New markets and additional value added in non-traditional agricultural exports have assumed growing importance. Domestic and international agricultural trade policy is increasingly influenced by factors that are beyond the control of the individual country or group of countries. The private sector plays a growing role in setting parts of the agenda. It is ever more important to have access to information of the right kind at the right time.

282. As currently configured, FAO's Commodities and Trade Division (ESC) under its Programmes 2.2.3 and 2.2.4 has an important role to play in supporting member countries, especially developing countries, with assistance, information and capacity building to enhance income from trade in agricultural commodities and participation in international trade negotiations such as at the WTO.

283. In view of this, it was decided at the May 2004 session of the FAO Programme Committee that this aspect of the Organization's work should be independently evaluated. With the new reform proposals recently tabled by the Director General, it becomes even more important to clearly identify the role that FAO can and should have in this area of growing importance to its member countries. Issues and policies in trade in agricultural products are having an increasing impact on development, food security and poverty in nearly all developing countries. FAO has long sat in a unique position in between the main actors in commodity trade, both exporters and importers, and developing countries which are affected by these markets and the policies (including private sector 'policies') surrounding them.

284. The evaluation is to examine the normative work in this area that FAO undertakes at Headquarters and in the Regional Offices, as well as carrying out visits to developed countries and to countries in the developing regions to review the effects and impacts of commodities and trade work both under the Regular Programme and in the context of Technical Cooperation Programme (TCP) and other project activities. The evaluation will take place during the latter weeks of 2005 and during 2006. The results will be presented to the Programme Committee at its May 2007 session.

285. FAO's Programme Evaluations are undertaken to support decision making by the Governing Bodies and management at all levels in order improve the overall strategic orientation of the Organization’s work, strengthen programme and project design, improve cost-effectiveness and to provide accountability on results to member countries and other stakeholders.

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Scope of the Evaluation

286. The evaluation will be mainly concerned with the work of ESC, and in particular ESCD (Divisional Management), ESCB (Basic Foodstuffs Service), ESCP (Commodity Policy and Projections Service) and ESCR (Raw Materials, Tropical and Horticultural Products Service). The Global Information and Early Warning Service (ESCG) will be covered for those aspects of its work done together with ESCB regarding global and country-level monitoring of food commodity supplies. The evaluation will also cover the work of the related Priority Area for Interdisciplinary Action (PAIA) on WTO Multilateral Trade Negotiations on Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (AWTO). Work on trade by other Divisions of FAO except where it relates directly to the PAIA will not be included in any depth.

287. Most of the commodities and trade work of these Services is carried out under six programme entities (PEs) in two programmes (2.2.3 and 2.2.4) described in the 2004-09 Medium Term Plan (MTP 04-09), of which one is a "Technical Project" with a time limit of six years, and the other five are "Continuing Programmes":

c) Under Programme 2.2.3: Food and Agriculture Monitoring, Assessments and Outlooks

223P3 (CP) Market Assessments for Basic Food Commodities and Impact on Global Food Security

223P4 (CP) Projections and Global Commodity Market Assessments

223P5 (CP) Market Assessments of Tropical, Horticultural and Raw Material Commodities and Impact on Food Security

d) Under Programme 2.2.4: Agriculture, Food Security and Trade Policy

224A2 (TP) Commodity and Trade Policy Support to Developing Countries for Trade Negotiations (Under the proposed Medium Term Plan for 2006-11, this entity will end in 2005, to be replaced by 224A4: Support for Implementation of Multilateral

Trade Negotiation Outcomes.)

224P4 (CP) Analysis and Consensus-Building on Emerging Commodity and Trade Issues

224P5 (CP) Enhancing Diversification and Competitiveness of Agricultural Commodities

288. The work being reviewed under the two concerned programmes, 2.2.3 and 2.2.4, provides a major input to FAO's work on the four Strategic Objectives B1, B2, E1 and E2. In particular, Programme 2.2.4 provides input to corporate strategy B: Promoting, developing and reinforcing

policy and regulatory frameworks for food, agriculture, fisheries and forestry, whose Strategic Objectives include:

B1: International instruments concerning food, agriculture, fisheries and forestry, and the

production, safe use and fair exchange of agricultural, fishery and forestry goods; and

B2: National policies, legal instruments and supporting mechanisms that respond to domestic

requirements and are consistent with the international policy and regulatory framework

289. Programme 2.2.3 provides input to corporate strategy E: Improving decision-making through

the provision of information and assessments and fostering of knowledge management for food and

agriculture, including the Strategic Objectives:

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E1: An integrated information resource base, with current, relevant and reliable statistics,

information and knowledge made accessible to all FAO clients; and

E2: Regular assessments, analyses and outlook studies for food and agriculture.

290. The activities under the selected Programme Entities also address Strategic Objective C1: Policy options and institutional measures to improve efficiency and adaptability in production,

processing and marketing systems, and meet the changing needs of producers and consumers,

291. Programme Entities 224P4 and 224P5 underwent auto-evaluation in 2004 (together with a part of 223S1 - Technical Support Services - which funds commodity group activities). The results of that evaluation will be used as an important input into the present external evaluation.

Issues to be covered

292. The evaluation will assess:

a) Changing national and international demands and the role of various international organizations in meeting individual countries' needs with respect to development of agricultural commodities and trade;

b) FAO's support to and organisation of international meetings, working groups, committees, etc. on commodities and commodity problems, including FAO's role as convenor and secretariat of the Committee on Commodity Problems of the FAO Council, and its various inter-governmental commodity groups;

c) FAO's role and activities in the context of analysis and support to facilitate trade negotiations and dispute resolution including those in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and other trade fora including trading blocks and countries with common trade interests;

d) FAO's involvement in and support to the work of the Common Fund for Commodities (CFC);

e) FAO's assistance to the regional economic bodies and other multi-country institutions dealing with commodities and trade;

f) The collection, generation, management and provision of information and knowledge regarding commodity markets and trade;

g) The development of policy and advocacy, including the role of the flagship publication, the State of Agricultural Commodity Markets; and

h) FAO's direct and indirect assistance to specific member countries in support of development of commodity value chains and development of income from commodities.

293. The evaluation will assess FAO's Commodities and Trade work in the following areas, at global, regional and country level:

1) Programme design and focus and the extent to which implementation reflects that design and

focus: a) the extent to which Commodities and Trade work has corresponded with the thrusts of the

Strategic Framework and the Millennium Development Goals, including implications for hunger, poverty and economic growth of benefit to the poor and attention to key concerns including gender and environmental implications;.

b) the extent to which the programme resources and main programme outputs are being used and applied towards achieving the planned outcomes and objectives as described in FAO's rolling Medium Term Plan; and

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c) comprehensiveness, clarity and coherence of design, including logical coherence between outputs and objectives, consideration of process and appropriateness of indicators.

2) Relevance and responsiveness to members needs and demands of Commodities and Trade activities, including the: a) degree to which work on Commodities and Trade is focused on topics and problems assigned

priority by countries, regions and international bodies; b) extent to which work reflects areas where there is scope for progress; c) relevance of work to individual countries' demands and needs, especially those of the poorer

countries, including complementarity between FAO's support and that provided by other sources;

d) extent to which work represents the most appropriate response from FAO and takes advantage of FAO's comparative advantages and takes account of the work of other organizations;

e) flexibility of response in the light of changing demands; and f) relevance of the activities to the intended target audiences.

3) The efficiency (in terms of use of limited resources) of FAO’s institutional capacity in

Commodities and Trade, including: a) the extent to which FAO is able to draw on its areas of particular technical competence; b) the extent of synergy and balance between normative and operational work; c) the extent to which the Organization makes use of its multi-disciplinary strengths. FAO's

internal mechanisms will be reviewed under this heading, including integration of Commodities and Trade work within PAIAs (Priority Areas for Interdisciplinary Action), in particular the PAIA on Assistance for WTO Trade Negotiations;.

d) partnership and coordination with other international and national organizations; e) cost-efficiency in production of outputs; and f) balance of staff and non-staff resources.

4) The quality of outputs of Commodities and Trade work, including such factors as appropriateness,

relevance and implementability.

5) Effectiveness, impact on the primary and ultimate target beneficiaries, and sustainability of

outcomes and impacts, including the: a) extent to which Commodities and Trade assistance has led to improved institutional capacity

in countries; b) degree to which assistance led to increased national capacity in multi-country trade

negotiations; and c) the extent to which FAO assistance in this area has helped improve countries' economic

situation and that of all those employed in the national commodity chain with income and employment generation .

6) Strengths, weaknesses and opportunities in FAO’s Commodities and Trade work.

Programme Entity Reviews

294. In addition, the four of the Programme Entities being reviewed which have not undergone recent auto-evaluation (i.e., 223P3, 223P4, 223P5, 224A2) will be the subject of separate assessments, and a short report will be prepared for each one. These PE reports will cover issues of:

a) PE relevance to member countries, to regional and global entities and to FAO,

b) design (formulation of objectives, outputs, indicators, targeting),

c) implementation efficiency and effectiveness

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d) assessment of outputs and outcomes by recipients (beneficiaries) and partners, and

e) durability and sustainability of outcomes and impacts

TCP Review

295. A separate brief report will also extract the assessments of TCP projects reviewed in the course of the evaluation to provide that programme with feedback, recommendations and lessons specifically relating to TCP.

Methodology, Scheduling and Outputs

296. The evaluation will take place in three distinct stages. The first will be a review at FAO Headquarters of the work of the main technical division responsible for FAO's commodities and trade activities, ESC. The outcome of this review will be presented in a Expert Panel Workshop to be held in early February 2006 which will review the proposed approach and direction of the evaluation over the following four months.

297. Following the workshop, the evaluation team will: g. Visit about 15 developing countries in four missions of 15-20 days' duration. h. Visit 4-5 major importing countries as well as relevant institutions which may include

UNCTAD, IFPRI, the World Bank, OECD, the WTO, and major commodity organizations and associations.

i. Undertake a questionnaire survey among FAO member countries to assess their views and suggestions on FAO's role and work in commodities and trade;

j. Interview, face-to-face or by phone, selected participants in the Committee on Commodity Problems and its commodity-specific Inter-Governmental Groups (IGGs)

k. Undertake further review of FAO headquarters-based work including a peer review of key publications.

298. The teams undertaking the country visits will first review available written material. In the countries, they will be expected to conduct discussions with key informants in government and the private sector with a view to obtaining information on country needs and capacity in commodity management and regional and international trade. In this context, the teams will investigate the extent to which they are aware of and use FAO-produced assistance and outputs, including normative products. Where appropriate, missions will also discuss with persons involved with the design, implementation and follow-up of project interventions in the selected countries. Missions will also meet with FAO's implementing partners to obtain their assessment of country needs, and of the work carried out by FAO in the country.

299. Each separate field mission will prepare: a. brief country notes (which will be provided to the FAO Country Representative as an

Aide-Mémoire where appropriate); b. notes on any projects reviewed, including TCP; c. notes on each international organization visited; d. a summary report on main findings and recommendations arising from the mission;

300. The final stage of the evaluation will be the preparation of a Synthesis Report bringing together the outcomes of all the above work. This report will be discussed in draft with FAO management and the same Expert Panel which participated in the design of the evaluation, after which the report will be finalised and together with their comments, presented to the FAO Programme Committee together with the comments of FAO management.

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301. During the course of its work, the evaluation team will also produce four 5-10 page Programme Entity Reviews detailing its assessment of four of the six Medium Term Plan programme entities being evaluated, leaving out the two which have undergone recent Auto-Evaluations. It will also compile a TCP Review containing summary assessments of each of the FAO Technical Cooperation Programme projects encountered during the evaluation work in the countries and at headquarters and conclusions on the role of TCP in commodity and trade work.

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302. The indicative timetable and phases of the evaluation are as follows:

12-16 December 2005 Briefing/orientation of Team Leader in Rome

23 Jan – 3 Feb 2006 Preparation of a Issues and Discussion Paper for the February Expert Panel Meeting. This will involve desk studies of HQ-based projects; HQ interviews and group discussions; and review of analytical work, publications and internet presence. Also, during this process, selection of countries and institutions for the field visits.

6-8 Feb 2006 3-day Expert Panel Meeting, to assist in identifying issues and approach for the evaluation, with a panel of 7-8 international experts and representatives countries and of institutions working in commodities and trade

Feb 2006 Preparation and mailing of a questionnaires to member countries

Peer review of Commodities and Trade publications

March-June 2006 Field missions, covering visits to the following:

i. about 15 developing countries for discussions with government and the private sector and review of FAO assistance9, including: • Asia • Africa (including East/South and West/Central) • Latin America • Near East and Central Asia

ii. major developed countries and trading blocks (3-4 countries) for discussions with government and the private sector

iii. international organizations such as WTO, UNCTAD, WTC, CFC, WB; IFPRI, OECD and major commodity organizations

June 2006 Preparation of the draft Synthesis Report, including further discussions with ESC and other staff and management, as needed

10-12 July 2006 3-day 2nd Expert Panel Meeting with the same Panel of Experts which participated in the evaluation start-up in February. Their input will be sought for the formulation of the main evaluation recommendations.

By September 2006 Finalisation of the Synthesis Report; delivery to Senior Management for preparation of the management response

9 The selection will be based on criteria including a cross section of countries which either a) participate actively in the CCP and its IGGs on commodities; b) have had specific FAO field activities; or c) have expressed no interest in FAO support in this area (to understand why). The countries will be selected to represent various regions and levels of development.

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Annex III Report of the First Expert Panel Meeting:

Review of Issues to be Evaluated

Expert Panel members

John Baffes (World Bank)

Paola Fortucci (retired Director, FAO Commodities and Trade Division)

Soren Frandsen (Institute of Food and Resource Economics, KVL, Denmark)

Ashok Gulati (IFPRI)

Tim Josling (Stanford University)

Nelson Ndirangu (Kenya Permanent Mission, Geneva)

Mark Newman (Market Solutions, LLC)

Michel Petit (Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen, Montpellier)

Miguel Rodriguez Mendoza (ICTSD, past Deputy DG, WTO)

Evaluation Team:

Ron Duncan (University of the South Pacific, Team Leader)

Stan Johnson (University of Nevada, Senior Consultant)

Daniel Shallon (FAO Evaluation Service, Evaluation Manager)

The Panel was convened to advise on the relevance, importance and priority of the issues identified in an Issues Paper prepared by the Evaluation Team established to review FAO's work on commodities and trade. The Expert Panel noted that it was called upon to give its preliminary views on areas for priority assessment and that it would again meet in June to consider the conclusions and recommendations of the final report of the Evaluation Team, to be submitted to the FAO Programme Committee, which requested this evaluation at its 91st session in May 2004. The Panel was composed of the nine internationally recognised experts in the field of commodities and trade listed above, and elected as its chair Prof. Michel Petit of the Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier. Daniel Shallon of the FAO Evaluation Service acted as Rapporteur for the meeting.

Following the presentation of the Issues Paper by the Evaluation Team Leader Prof. Ron Duncan, the Panel had an intensive and in depth discussion of priorities and issues regarding both management of ESC and the ESC substantive programme. In conducting its assessment of areas requiring close consideration by the evaluation, it drew on information provided in discussions with representatives from all Services of the Commodities and Trade Division (ESC). In addition, the Panel consulted representatives of the Statistics Division (ESS), the Agricultural and Development Economics Division (ESA), the Agricultural Management, Marketing and Finance Service (AGSF), the Codex Alimentarius Commission (ESNC) and the Policy Assistance Division (TCA).

At its final meeting, the Panel concluded that the report presented by the Evaluation Team had outlined many major issues for the evaluation to explore. A number of specific points were raised by panel members and are to be found below. In his concluding remarks to the Evaluation Team, the

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representatives of ESC and the Evaluation Service, the Chairman of the Panel highlighted the principal concerns of the panel.

In particular, Prof. Petit noted that issues regarding the programme of activities should be considered first and then the consequences for management could be usefully discussed. Regarding the former, he stressed first the need to sharpen the definition of the work to be done on commodities, in particular to select which commodities to focus on and for whom. It will also be necessary to decide on the main thrust and periodicity of the commodity market reports to be published (as well as of other information products) in the light of available resources for publications. In addition, there was a need to further explore potential partnerships with other institutions for work on commodities, bearing in mind the need to maintain FAO’s role and reputation as an “honest broker”.

Regarding trade issues, a considerable amount of work was already being done by the Division and there was significant evidence that it was highly valued by some stakeholders. While assistance continued to be required in the negotiating phases, it will be necessary to devote much attention in future years to the “post-Doha agenda”. This will require work on implementation of the future multilateral agreement and also on the increasingly important and numerous regional and bilateral trade agreements. But most importantly, there will be a huge agenda for developing countries to take advantage of the improved market access opportunities expected from the Doha round. These countries often face major supply constraints which would need to be overcome. The set of issues involved was much broader than those which fall solely within the mandate and competencies of the ESC Division. Thus defining the appropriate role of the Division in this area and fostering the necessary as well as much increased level of collaboration across Divisions will be a great challenge. The same remarks were applicable to the welcome increase in attention to value chain analysis being contemplated.

Regarding the links with the CCP, the IGGs and the CFC, Prof. Petit noted that they should be examined in the context of an assessment of the demand for the services of the Division. The Panel recommended that the Evaluation team rely on past evaluations of these institutional mechanisms but that it probe further in its forthcoming country visits. In that respect it urged the evaluation team to contact a broad range of stakeholders in addition to government officials. This should help the team to eventually make recommendations on the Divisional publications and dissemination strategy, an important component of its mission.

On management issues, the evaluation will have to draw a fine line between systemic issues at the FAO-wide level and those which can be acted on at the Division level. Specific recommendations on the latter will be most pertinent but the precise identification of the inefficiencies and bottlenecks caused by Organization-level constraints can also be useful. The Panel did not discuss the staff skill specificity by commodity mentioned in the Issues Paper. But it asserted that the magnitude of external funding is such that this kind of funding needs to be carefully managed. Keeping in mind the danger that the Division agenda become donor-driven, should goals be set for the level of external funding? In addition, the Panel recommended that the evaluation team reflect on the impact of external funding on staff incentives and conversely on the impact of existing incentives on the mobilization of external funding. Finally, the same question of incentives will be critical to the examination of the obstacles to closer collaboration among units and individual staff within the Division and across Divisions in FAO. The Panel emphasized that this issue of collaboration will become more critical yet in the future than it has been in the past, because the new agenda will be more complex and because such collaboration will be needed to enhance the ability of the Division to respond to new issues which are not anticipated today but are sure to arise and to respond to demands from FAO member countries.

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Following the presentation by the Panel Chair, the Director, ESC, expressed general support for the areas outlined by the Panel. He drew attention to further promising areas of work for the Division but expressed concern for resource availability for implementing the programme. He announced that he had just received approval from Senior Management for the restructuring of the Division, going from the current four Services to three Services dealing respectively with trade related issues, commodity market analysis, and global information and early warning.

In conclusion, the Panel undertook to provide support to the evaluation through quality review of selected publications and training materials of ESC. Participants also agreed to provide advice to the Evaluation Team regarding appropriate persons and institutions to visit during its field missions, as well as to provide ad-hoc assistance to the extent possible.

Main Issues Highlighted by the Expert Panel

Management issues

Staffing

1. Decentralisation: how can the most be made of the regional postings? The team needs to consider decentralisation at higher institutional level rather than just on a divisional basis (though this can only have limited impact).

2. Incentives: is there a need for better incentive structures? - for coordination, for mobilisation of extra-budgetary funds (EBF), for partnering with internal and outside partners? If so, what could such incentives be? How could they be implemented?

3. Need to look at staff motivation. Given the lack of mobility with cutting of posts, what are possible incentives? What about staff training?

4. In a situation of resource constraints, would greater use of external consultants (instead of retaining more staff) improve ability of ESC to respond to needs?

5. What are the functional staffing requirements to effectively respond to needs? e.g., the ratio of General Service to Professional staff.

Funding

1. Extra-budgetary funds: should there be an annual goal? What sort of incentives can be developed for staff to seek EBF?

2. Is EBF a way out of the constraints faced currently? Can it be transformed into a more regular part of the budget? Can an agreement be found with donors to use EBF to hire semi-permanent staff?

3. What kind of EBF should be sought to avoid the tail wagging the dog? Excessive and special issue donor funding can compromise programme - should EBF be taken only based on agreed priorities and member requests? What if conditions are attached?

4. What are the issues for ensuring greater return of funds earned to supplement the resources of the earning Service?

5. Need to look at funds from CFC projects: should there be better compensation for services provided?

Organisation of the Division; Coordination and overlap; Decentralisation:

1. Is there need for a better definition of the functions of the Division? The Team should keep an open mind on possibilities for reorganisation. The possibility of trimming some of the Division's functions should be on the table.

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2. Decentralisation: Should (and can) there be the ability to rotate staff? Is supplementary funding needed to compensate for decentralised staff? Response should be across units/divisions? What is the client perception of this?

3. Partnerships: what are the opportunities? How can this be balanced with maintaining objectivity (FAO as a neutral organisation)?

4. Multidisciplinary nature of ESC work: how can there be better coordination with other divisions and other institutions, e.g., on trade policy? Could the use of Task Forces across divisions be strengthened? And possibly include other international organisations? In particular, how can ESC find optimum integration with TCA?

5. Can collaboration be best improved through modified PAIAs, or through collaboration on externally funded projects?

6. Is the transfer of some of the data collecting activities to ESS one possible way for ESC to focus more on analysis?

7. Is there duplication on the topic of value chains with ESA and AGSF? Could there be the creation of a special fund to link these units working on this issue?

Work Priorities: stakeholders and comparative advantage

Commodity monitoring and projections, applied research and policy analysis, or?

1. The Team should undertake a critical evaluation of ESC's mandate. How can work under ESC's mandate be strengthened to provide advice to developing member governments on national commodity policies? Trade role of FAO: does ESC have a unique mandate for this? What is it?

2. From supply to demand-driven activities: who are ESC's most important clients? what are their needs and what is FAO's response? Need to assess demand for ESC services and products: IGGs, CCP, analytical studies, commodity projections, trade policy, etc.

3. Markets, marketing and commodities: what should the Division focus on? Do clients know exactly what FAO's commodity "analysis" is? How can ESC avoid overlap and confusion with other divisions? Data collection and dissemination vs Analysis: which really provides an international public good? What is the real demand for ESC analytical studies, considering the significant resources needed for their dissemination?

4. In general, what is the optimum frequency and focus of market information and intelligence (monitoring) reports? Does it still make sense for ESC to collect short term commodity information? Is it useful? For whom and for what commodities and in what form? Could annual reviews be enough? Should "Food Outlook" further reduce its frequency? Would it be better to mobilise resources to purchase commodity market information? How can commodity work be done in conjunction with WB and UNCTAD? And better focussed on most relevant commodities? Which commodities, which countries?

5. Modelling and projections work: Team should seek to understand what is the ideal mix with ESC's other areas of work, including commodity-specific expertise.

6. WTO and other trade related work is becoming increasingly prominent: Team needs to look at the substance of what is being done in this area: will it really help developing countries take advantage of the agreements and the changing trade environment? Does ESC have the capacity to do this work?

7. How can the Division better harmonise FAOSTAT and ESC commodity databases?

IGGs and CCP

1. Is there synchronisation of outputs of IGGs with work programme of Division? What is the CCP/IGG mandate for the Division?

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2. What is the real usefulness of IGGs and CCP? are there alternatives? what is real usefulness of inter-governmental statutory bodies? Are they still relevant? Structure of the IGGs: Should they be more regional? reorient? restructure? need to simplify? remove some, possibly create new ones according to evolution of commodity markets?

3. Is servicing the IGGs still relevant for FAO and ESC? good use of resources? What steps can be taken in the IGGs to develop a better interaction with private sector?

New and proposed activities

1. Who will be the Division's new clients in future, as it moves towards new and emerging issues?

2. Commodity risk management: Is there enough capacity in ESC to deal with it? Is there demand from countries? From the organisations which are part of Risk Mgt Task Force? Regarding risk management, what are the real options available to (small) producers?

3. Does ESC have comparative advantage (internally in FAO and externally) in agribusiness (value chains)? Should it focus on this approach in its trade policy work? In its commodity analysis work?

4. Should ESC (in cooperation with internal and external partners) focus on constraints to response (supply constraints) by developing countries to external and internal conditions (trade agreements, commodity market structure, land tenure issues, etc. etc.)

5. Trade and policy analysis: in coming years the focus will be on the Post-Doha agenda, i.e., interpretation of negotiated outcomes. What should ESC's role be? How should FAO/ESC develop capacity and find resources for providing this analysis: focus on what ESC can do

6. Should work on Regional Trade Agreements and in general regional and bi-lateral trade liberalisation be expanded? - Also work on consumer attributes, GMOs, risk management, Aid for Trade and other emerging issues?

Publications, dissemination

1. Would a Newsletter be useful? Working Paper series: could it be usefully merged with other divisions' WPs? Could there be co-production of publications?

2. Is there scope (or a need, or a comparative advantage) for reorienting publications and outputs - including targeting non-traditional audiences, such as the university or research community in OECD countries?

3. Delivery mechanisms: would electronic delivery be sufficient in certain cases? are paper publications necessary (costly paper or free megabytes)? Do they meet the needs of stakeholders? How can print publications be done at lower cost? (e.g., printing in India, etc.)

Approach and methodology of the evaluation

1. It is important to consider that the Expert Panel is making recommendations at a particular point in time, and should not necessarily constrain the priorities of the Team if the context evolves differently: the Team should take the widest possible view. Likewise, the Evaluation itself should seek to avoid making proposals which would constrain ESC's ability to flexibly adjust to emerging issues.

2. The Panel suggests talking to the Permanent Representatives in Rome, as well as to the negotiators in the National Representations in Geneva

3. On country visits, also talk to: • large INGOs (Oxfam, IPC, ICTSD, etc.); • larger agribusinesses and other market participants; and • national research institutions, universities, etc.

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ANNEX IV

PROGRAMME ENTITY REVIEW

E. Review of Implementation to date of the "Old" Programme Entities

303. This evaluation was conducted at a time of significant change in the structure of the ESC Division and in the organization of its work. In reviewing the work programme, the ET necessarily had to make judgements based on objectives and targets presented in the work programmes of past years, the "old" programme entities (PEs). It should be stressed that there has been substantial but very recent adjustment in the work programme. Some aspects of certain old PEs have been assessed quite critically in the review below, but it is important to point out that in the "new" PEs the Division has responded to some of the problem areas identified.

8. PROGRAMME 2.2.3: Food and Agricultural Monitoring, Assessments and Outlooks

9. 223P3. Market Assessments for Basic Food Commodities and Impact on Global Food Security

Budget for this Programme Entity 2002-2005 (USD 000s)

PWB 2002-03 PWB 2004-05

Allocated budget 1,458 1,391

% of C&T budget 12% 12%

Objective

304. The key actors in food and agricultural commodity markets will be able to make better

decisions in adapting to changing market conditions. In particular, decision makers in governments

will promote appropriate programmes or policies aimed at enabling the private sector to seize

emerging commodity market opportunities.

Assessment

305. This programme is carried out through extensive publications, conferences and briefings on essentially all major food crops. The outlook and monitoring results are released through FAO publications, media, and press briefings. One copy of the outlook and related publications is sent to each member country. In addition, the publications and briefings are placed on the FAO web page. From our evaluation, these outputs generally appear to be of good quality. However, as discussed elsewhere, the amount of reporting on short-term movements in commodity markets should be reduced while the extent of in-depth analysis of longer-term trends should be increased.

306. A major obstacle to this work having maximum impact is that the locus of many of the government decisions affecting agricultural marketing and trade has shifted from agricultural ministries to ministries of finance, trade and commerce and, unfortunately, the FAO publications and other material often go only to the ministries of agriculture. From the ET's field experience it was obvious that the ministries of trade and commerce were often unaware of ESC's work on food commodities. On the other hand, most ministries of agriculture have no marketing or trade departments to deal with these issues. Nor do they have much to do with the development of policies affecting the private sectors involvement in commodity marketing and trade, which was a key objective of the PE.

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307. A second obstacle is that the importing, exporting, and storage of food products take place largely in the private sector. Most of the private sector agents involved are unaware of the data systems, outlook and market analysis of the FAO and the ESC. The result is that, aside from information dissemination by ministries of agriculture, this work does not reach one of the main actors in the food supply chain. Changing this situation will require considerable effort on the part of the FAO, particularly the country representatives. It is for these reasons that the scoring for the PE with respect to Formulation and Design, Process, and Sustainable Effects and Impacts has been rated so poorly.

Issues

308. Three points follow from the above comments. First, the FAO and particularly the country representatives must broaden their circle of regular contacts in countries. This may be difficult because the country representatives and their in-country assistants often come from the ministries of agriculture. A major reorientation of the tasks of the country representatives and their staff will be necessary if the data and information produced by ESC is to get to the right hands on a timely basis.

309. A second concern is the capacity of ESC to do in-depth market outlook and food commodity impact assessments with the data at hand. Unless the Division has access to up-to-date information that relates to the segmentation that is taking place in most agricultural product markets, the commodity analysts cannot be expected to provide in-depth understanding of what is happening in these markets. Only the private sector has access to the kinds of information needed. This is the reason for the recommendation that ESC must explore the inclusion of the private sector in the IGGs and in joint issuance of outlook material.

310. Finally, the FAO web page for accessing reports and data is not user friendly. The Organisation's system of dissemination needs to be looked at from the 'outside in'. That is, have the system designed with the needs of the consumer in mind rather than the needs of the producer of the information. The result should be a web page that is more accessible for users, and its use should be tracked by the characteristics of the users to determine if the information is going to the right destinations, including those designing regulations for the effective operation of commodity markets.

10. 223P4 Projections and Global Commodity Market Assessments

Budget for this Programme Entity 2002-2005 (USD 000s)

PWB 2002-03 PWB 2004-05

Allocated budget 986 948

% of C&T budget 8% 9%

Objective

311. Countries adjust their policies, strategies and plans to seize trade-related opportunities,

based on increased awareness of current developments and future prospects in global markets.

Assessment

312. It is clear from the field visits that some developing member countries have adjusted their policies to seize trading opportunities. For example, Brazil, Chile, China, Dominican Republic, and Thailand have built much of their recent good economic growth on the expansion of exports of

19

agricultural products. These countries are also very conscious of the need to meet international health and safety standards. However, it is impossible to say to what extent these changed policies were due to information and analysis provided by FAO. The private sector is largely driving these exports and is having a large part in getting governments to put in place more appropriate policies. Still, as observed by the peer reviewers of the Division's publications, the publications and technical assistance have been relevant, well targeted, and technically of good quality, although from our country visits we believe that the outputs could have been better targeted. It is for this reason that the scoring of the PE with respect to Process and Sustainable Effects and Impacts has been rated so low.

313. As with the assessment of 223P3, there are the obstacles facing the effective dissemination of the reports, including the fact that the ministries of agriculture generally have little to do with trade. There is a need to get the reports and their web addresses into the hands of the individuals in the agencies and firms that undertake trading activities and formulate market regulations. This is a job that should be more effectively undertaken by the FAO country representatives.

314. This is also an area where ESC has rapidly evolved a different strategy. The development of the COSIMO model is having and will have an even more important impact on the projections made by commodity analysts. The features of the model that make it attractive for projections are the implicit balances that are maintained within it and the OECD modelling system, the participation of FAO staff in meetings with OECD, and their acquaintance with other modellers doing similar work around the world.

315. The limitations of the projections relate to the use of the FAOSTAT database for the projections and the needed updating of the FAOSTAT system. The revised FAOSTAT data should become available in 2007.

Issues

316. Development of good commodity policy is an objective that provides the rationale for the development of commodity projections capacity within ESC. A relevant question is whether the information is disseminated to governments and the private sector effectively and on a timely basis. The current way in which the information and analysis generated by ESC is provided to member countries is through ministries of agriculture. This must be changed. One of the methods recommended for linking with the private sector is to involve the ICBs in the short-term modelling exercises and thereby developing contacts that can assist in disseminating the medium-term projections as well as the shorter-term information and analysis.

317. A major issue is whether ESC is going to expand and institutionalize its partnerships with the ICBs and other organizations. The ET learned that a MOU is being contemplated with OECD. Similar MOUs should be negotiated with other large-scale forecasting modelling systems, e.g., FAPRI, IFPRI, and the US Economic Research Service. It is important to institutionalize COSIMO within ESC and develop staff capability to assume the leadership of the model in the future.

11. 223P5 Market Assessments of Tropical Horticultural and Raw Material Commodities and Impacts on Food Security

Budget for this Programme Entity 2002-2005 (USD 000s)

PWB 2002-03 PWB 2004-05

Allocated budget 1,976 1,929

% of C&T budget 17% 17%

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Objective

318. The key actors in food and agricultural commodity markets will be able to make better

decisions in adapting to changing market conditions. In particular, decision makers in governments

will promote appropriate programmes or policies aimed at enabling the private sector to seize

emerging commodity market opportunities.

Assessment

319. This PE is the second half of the agricultural product market analysis work undertaken under 223P3. The same comments apply about the quality of the information and analysis provided by ESC. The focus in 223P5 is on many products that are specific to developing countries. Many of these commodities are also becoming involved in integrated marketing networks developed by the private sector (supply or value chains). This development adds another dimension to that of the basic food commodities (covered under 223P3), which is the study of these integrated marketing systems that we have identified as a potential key theme for ESC.

320. The other issues raised in the evaluation of 223P5 are much the same as for the assessment of 223P3, except that for many of these commodities ministries of agriculture are even less involved than with the basic food commodities. Another issue is that the private sector is dominating marketing and distribution and through the imposition of certifications has created the necessity of standards certification for farmers. In many cases these commodities are produced by smallholders. A critical issue therefore is the capacity of smallholders to meet the standards imposed. There is also a need to develop price and production risk management systems in which smallholders can participate.

321. The marketing of several of the cash crops within this group of commodities was earlier managed by ICBs with the objective of stabilizing prices. The ICBs are no longer involved in this activity. But price instability continues, and with the removal of international and national price stabilisation measures price risks are now primarily borne by smallholders. This in one of the reasons we have proposed risk management as one of the major themes for ESC's work programme. The lack of involvement of agriculture ministries in the making of policy relevant to trade and marketing, and the fact that ESC output has been primarily targeting these ministries, has meant that the work of the Division in influencing the involvement of the private sector in these markets has not been nearly as effective as it could have been. It is for this reason that the scorings on Formulation and Design, Process, and Sustainable Effects and Impact are not as high as for the other scoring criteria.

Issues

322. The issues are much the same as for the basic food commodities. Added issues for these horticultural and raw material commodities concern smallholders and how to protect them from the potential monopoly power of the large firms purchasing their products, and how to develop mechanisms that can help them to manage the price risks. Other issues relate to the unresponsiveness of supply to the liberalisation of markets, the capacity of smallholders to meet the certification requirements set in export markets, and the use of standards as technical barriers to trade.

323. Another issue for these commodities is that, aside from those agricultural products covered by the ICBs, the FAO is the only international organization that is producing public good types of information for these industries. This makes it especially important for ESC to be at the frontier in terms of analytical techniques and coverage of issues.

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12. 223S1 Technical Support Services to the Member Nations and the Field Programme.

Budget for this Programme Entity 2002-2005 (USD 000s)

PWB 2002-03 PWB 2004-05

Allocated budget 532 758

% of C&T budget 4% 7%

Objective

324. Under this entity, it is envisioned to enhance the provision of technical support services, while

continuing to make contributions to serving the Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP) and its

Intergovernmental Commodity Groups (IGGs).

Assessment

325. There have been 18 meetings of the IGGs since 1998, with the most frequent meetings being those of the Bananas and Tropical Fruits, Natural Fibres, and Meat and Dairy Products. The ESC has acted as Secretariat to the General Sessions of the CCP, of which there have been six since 1995. These meetings require much planning and the preparation of numerous background or issues papers, making heavy demands on the resources of the Division. The budget of this entity in fact covers only the direct costs of the meetings (document and translation, interpreters, conference staff, etc.), and does not cover staff time. This has been changed in the new structure, and there is now a PE, 3CP08, which covers all costs, direct and indirect, of these meetings. It was allocated US$ 1.48 million for the biennium.

326. The quality of the reports to the CCP and the IGGs is seen as being high. With respect to the changing circumstances of commodity markets and what this has meant for the CCP and particularly the IGGs, this has been noted by the Division and adaptive changes have been made.

327. The other source of support and technical services is the CFC and donor funded projects. The CFC work of ESC is largely a project management function. With the growing pressure for funds, the donor supported projects are and will be expanding.

Issues

328. There are three issues of concern for this entity. First, there is the concern that the IGGs should somehow be reorganized or eliminated. The reorganization proposals relate to involvement of the private sector and the NGOs as full participants. The elimination proposals are related to the fact that some of the IGGs are not functioning as in the past because the governments are not so involved in the management of commodity markets and there are other sources for the information that is disseminated.

329. Second there is the issue of the CFC and the call by the ET for ESC to broker these projects to FAO divisions that have the necessary expertise. This is a change that is supported by the CFC.

330. Third, donor funded projects will likely increase if the recommendations of the ET are accepted. That is, the ET believes that there will be a different funding model for FAO (and other international organizations) in future that will require it to access more donor funds if it is to succeed and grow. This too has implications for the IGGs.

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13. PROGRAMME 2.2.4: Agriculture Food and Trade policy

14. 224A2 Commodity and Trade Policy Support to Developing Countries for Trade Negotiations

Budget for this Programme Entity 2002-2005 (USD 000s)

PWB 2002-03 PWB 2004-05

Allocated budget 941 1,363

% of C&T budget 8% 12%

Objective

331. Countries, especially developing countries, are able to participate effectively in trade

negotiations affecting the international regulatory framework for agriculture.

Assessment

332. This PE has been a major activity of the Division. Educational workshops have been conducted in all FAO regions. Special assistance has also been given to countries that have requested it. Training workshops have been conducted jointly with other UN organizations such as UNCTAD, and with other divisions within FAO, for example TCA. The training workshops, mostly on trade negotiations and implementation, were commented on very favourably in all the developing countries visited by the ET, and we can say that ESC has performed an important public good service for the developing countries in assisting them to develop their trade negotiation strategies. The most frequent criticism of this training was that at times it is not coordinated with the Regional Offices to permit follow through. The peer reviewers have commented favourably on the relevance, appropriateness, readability, and technical quality of sample material produced under the programme of work.

333. A frequent comment during the field visits to developing member countries was that they would like to see ESC do more analysis on regional trade arrangements and the interrelationships between bilateral and regional agreements and the WTO agreements. To date its focus has been primarily on the WTO agreements and negotiations. It can be noted that under the Division's new work programme, the Programme Entity 3CA02 "Support to the Multilateral Trade Negotiations and Support for Implementation of Multi-Lateral Trade Agreements" will see that analytical support is given to members on regional trade issues and arrangements.

334. Another aspect of the work that requires attention is the fact that agricultural ministries are not much involved in trade issues. FAO must have a greater coverage of ministries if it is to successfully educate the trade and marketing specialists in the developing member countries.

335. There is also the issue of the role now played in agricultural product markets and the setting of agricultural trade policy by the private sector. The question arises as to how ESC and other FAO programmes will educate these participants in trade policy. This is an audience that ESC and more generally FAO must address in the interests of the effective development of the WTO and regional and bilateral trade agreements.

336. An issue raised in some ET discussions with country and regional officers was that the training workshops did not include them and that this affected the extent to which the training could be internalised within the country/region.

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337. This part of the work programme has received considerable assistance from the Japanese Government. In discussions between the ET and Japanese Government officials concern was expressed about the delays in progress and completion reports from the two training projects funded.

Issues

338. The major issues for this entity concern the continuation of educational programmes and the changing demands of the developing member countries. These programmes must shift over time to embrace the trade and marketing issues of the countries. This has been happening with the shift from negotiations to implementation. Perhaps as the Doha Round of the WTO draws to a close the effort will shift again, this time to regional and bilateral trade agreements. Also, the shift must be towards the individuals and agencies in the member countries that are the major players in trade—the trade and commerce ministries and the private sector.

339. The private sector presents perhaps the most difficult interest group for ESC, and more generally FAO, to address. Private sector players influence trade policy through their tactics and political contacts with governments. Many of them are multinationals, so their influence is across countries as well as within countries. They also make their own trade policies through standards and certifications to meet the demands within their supply or value chains.

15. 224P4 Analysis and Consensus-Building on Emerging Commodity Trade Issues

Budget for this Programme Entity 2002-2005 (USD 000s)

PWB 2002-03 PWB 2004-05

Allocated budget 4,983 3,686

% of C&T budget 42% 33%

Objective

340. The international trading system becomes better accepted by all countries as a fair and

efficient system, and developing countries improve their capacity in maximizing the benefits from

trade in processed and semi-processed food and agricultural commodities.

Assessment

341. This entity has the highest budget allocation of all those examined. This covers consultative mechanisms such as intergovernmental consultations, multi-commodity and multi-disciplinary outlook conferences, networking and multi-media communications, and inter-disciplinary linkages with government, non-governmental, academic and private sector stakeholders, for the purpose of promoting international understanding and consensus regarding evolving agricultural trade commodity issues. The entity also funds the maintenance of databases and development of methodologies to assess factors such as the impact of new technologies on trade, eco-labelling and fair trade, organic agricultural development and competitiveness of agricultural commodities. A good part of the staff time for preparation of documents for some of the IGGs and the CCP also comes under this entity.

342. ESC has generated several papers on issues relevant to the development of a fair and efficient international trading system and improving the capacity of developing countries to increase trade in semi-processed and processed agricultural products. These include papers on the quantification of the

24

impact of trade barriers in developed countries and the impacts of agricultural trade liberalisation scenarios, standards and certification, intellectual property rights, promotion (e.g. bananas, tea), new markets such as organic foods, value chain analysis, and price transmission in commodity markets. It is very difficult to evaluate the benefits of these kinds of analysis. It does appear, however, that there has been a reasonable amount of analytical output from the programme.

343. What we think of as processed and semi-processed commodities may well change. The type of processing that is occurring in developed countries is more related to the supply or value chains that are emerging than the old ideas of manufacturing types of processing. Examples include packaging of horticultural crops in the field, and sourcing of commodities with particular traits for some of the traditional commodities traded in bulk: rice, coffee, tea, non-GMO grains, etc. Thus, these categories of processing may have to be better taken into account by the Division, if it is to serve the development of this sector.

344. Further, the issue of regulatory systems that can support processing depends upon who is going to do it. The sector that will likely develop this capacity is the private sector. Thus, the efforts to support countries in developing regulatory policies needs to address the private sector and the role that they see for adding value in the developing countries.

Issues

345. The private sector will be heavily involved in the types of processing that will succeed in developing countries. This means that there will have to be a good economic argument for the existence of the added value services in the developing countries. Attention must go to supply and/or value chains and the opportunities that present themselves. The major concern of governments should be to provide the kind of investment and regulatory environment in which efficient private sector activity will flourish.

346. Therefore, there should be concern about the poor supply response in developing countries to domestic economic reform and to the opening of export markets. In many cases, the agricultural ministries are themselves the reason for the poor supply response. Thus, there is much for ESC and other divisions to do in this area. ESC has begun to address these issues in the context of greater private sector involvement in trade. The ET encourages the pursuit of these efforts and applauds the organizational change that has brought marketing into the trade issues.

347. Many of the value added opportunities available to developing countries are in the marketing area. Efficient marketing systems are essential to the development of value added processing, and consistent with private sector involvement in trade. These issues will become more important in the development of policies that allow the developing countries to capture more of the added value in the marketing chain.

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16. 224P5 Enhancing Diversification and Competitiveness of Agricultural Commodities

Budget for this Programme Entity 2002-2005 (USD 000s)

PWB 2002-03 PWB 2004-05

Allocated budget 1,132 1,064

% of C&T budget 9% 10%

Objective

348. More effective national commodity and trade development strategies, enhancing capacity to

generate individual commodity and trade development projects aimed at improved competitiveness

and exploitation of market opportunities.

Assessment

349. The ET could find only a few outputs that relate to this area of work. Some of the outputs that appear to relate mainly to 224P4 could be seen to be relevant to this PE also, such as papers on organic exports, "fair trade", standards and certification, and intellectual property. Other papers that directly relate to this PE discuss non-traditional exports, value adding (e.g. bananas), and market development strategies (e.g. hides and skins and leather). However, there is little output relating to national trade development strategies and improving competitiveness.

350. This is an area that has been under developed in ESC, which is possibly due to the fact that in recent years the trade specialists have been concentrating on WTO negotiations and implementation.

351. Competitiveness is a particularly difficult issue to attach meaning to. What the ET understands this to refer to the opportunity to develop new products and commodities that can compete in the international market. These new commodities may in many cases be the old commodities in different wrappers—old commodities with traits preserved or marketed in new ways. This is an important area for work in ESC, and one which the changes in the divisional structure and work programme will equip it to better address.

352. The issues for developing countries are first to generate the supply response that is potentially forthcoming as trade is liberalized. There are many constraints to a robust supply response in the developing nations, often taking the form of domestic government interventions. ESC and FAO more generally should first concentrate on helping countries overcome the obstacles to improved supply response. Also, there is the important issue of market "entry", i.e. improving trade facilitation so that exports can access the markets that have been opened to trade.

353. Strategies for improved competitiveness and the development of trade will have to be developed in partnership with the private sector. Also, the CFC and the ICBs are changing into "development agencies" and are involved to an increasing extent in these and related issues and therefore are potential partners. In many cases, improving competitiveness involves government cooperation that extends far beyond the agricultural ministries, to finance, trade, commerce and industry policy branches of governments. This means that, as we have mentioned earlier, ESC and FAO in general will be required to work across ministries, if they are to be successful players in the diversification and competitiveness areas.

354. As noted above, the output from this project appears to have suffered from the Division's necessary commitments to other projects. The design of the project is also not clear and well directed and as a result the processing of the project and its sustainable impacts has suffered. Hence, the scoring of the PE in these areas is low.

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Issues

355. Development of this area of work will depend heavily upon the success of new partnerships. New or strengthened partnerships, such as with the CFC and the ICBs, will enhance capacity for this kind of work within the Division. Also, the effort must be in partnership with the developing country governments and the private sector. This will require a different approach from ESC and other divisions, including the area and field representatives.

27

Annex V Publications of the Commodities and Trade Division

September 2006

Publications are posted on ESC Web pages http://www.fao.org/es/, http://www.fao.org/trade/, and http://www.fao.org/giews/

The language codes used here are: A=Arabic, C=Chinese; E=English; F=French; S=Spanish.

SERIES AND MAJOR STUDIES 26

BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS OF FAO MEETINGS 32

TRADE AND THE WTO NEGOTIATIONS 37

MARKET ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK 42

ENVIRONMENT 47

ESC MISCELLANEOUS PUBLICATIONS AND DISCONTINUED SERIES 48

ESC PAPERS IN THE FAO ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PAPERS SERIES 50

SERIES AND MAJOR STUDIES

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

COMMODITY MARKET REVIEW 2005-2006 2006 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/a0334e/a0334e00.htm

THE STATE OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY MARKETS 2004 (SOCO)

2005 A/C/E/F/S

http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/y5419e/y5419e00.htm

FAO REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY POLICIES:

No. 1 Policies for basic food commodities 2003-2004 2006 E/F/S

AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY MARKETS AND TRADE. NEW APPROACHES TO ANALYZING MARKET STRUCTURE AND INSTABILITY. Edited by: Alexander Sarris, David Hallam. Cheltenham (UK). 472 pp., hardback ISBN 92-5-105313-8 TC/M/Y6083/E $135.00 (Co-published with Edward Elgar, UK).

2006 E http://www.fao.org/es/esc/common/ecg/88281_en_mnr0206.pdf

28

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2006-201

Perspectives agricoles de l‘OCDE et de la FAO 2006-2015

Perspectivas agricolas, OCDE-FAO, 2006-2015

2006 A/C/E/F/S

ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/009/a0621e/a0621e00.pdf

ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/009/a0621f/a0621f00.pdf

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2005-2014

Perspectives agricoles de l‘OCDE et de la FAO 2005-2014

Perspectivas agricolas, OCDE-FAO, 2005-2014

2005/

2006

A/C/E/F/S

http://www.fao.org/es/esc/en/20953/22218/22242/highlight_108756en.html

E/F: SourceOECD@oecd.org

A/C/S: Publications-sales@fao.org

FAO COMMODITIES AND TRADE PROCEEDINGS:

No 1. Proceedings of the FAO Rice Conference 2004. Rice in global markets.

2005 E

FS abs-tracts

http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/a0033e/a0033e00.htm

FAO COMMODITIES AND TRADE TECHNICAL PAPERS:

No.7 - Small Island Developing States. Agricultural production and trade, preferences and policy.

2004 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/y5795e/y5795e00.htm

No. 6. Production and export of organic fruit and vegetables in Asia. Pascal Liu.

2005 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/y5762e/y5762e00.htm

No. 5 - Voluntary standards and certification for environmentally and socially responsible agricultural production and trade. Pascal

Liu, Mikkel Andersen, Catherine Pazderka.

2004 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/y5763e/y5763e00.pdf

No. 3 - The Market for Non Traditional Agricultural Exports. David

Hallam, Gill Lavers, Pascal Liu, Paul Pilkauskas, George

Rapsomanikis, Julie Claro.

2004 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/y5445e/y5445e00.htm

No. 2 - Environmental and social standards, certification and labelling for cash crops. Cora Dankers.

2003 E/F/S http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/006/Y5136E/Y5136E00.HTM

No. 1 - Medium-term prospects for agricultural commodities. Projections to 2010.

2003 E/F/S http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/y5143e/y5143e00.htm

FAO COMMODITY STUDIES:

No. 2 - Issues in the global tobacco economy. Selected case studies.

2003 E/F/S http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/006/Y4997E/Y4997E00.HTM

No. 1 - The world banana economy 1985-2002. Pedro Arias,

Cora Dankers, Pascal Liu, Paul Pilkauskas. 2003 E/F/S http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/

y5102e/y5102e00.htm

FAO COMMODITY AND TRADE POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS (E - abstracts F/S):

No. 19 - The role of agriculture in reducing poverty in Tanzania: A household perspective from rural Kilimanjaro and Ruvuma. Alexander Sarris, Sara Savastan, and Luc Christiaensen

2006

E In preparation

29

No. 18 - Household vulnerability in rural Tanzania. Alexander

Sarris and Panayiotis Karfakis 2006

E In preparation

No. 17 - Producer demand and welfare benefits of rainfall insurance in the United Republic of Tanzania. Alexander Sarris, Panayiotis

Karfakis, and Luc Christiaensen

2006

E In preparation

No. 16 - The use of organized commodity markets to manage food import price instability and risk. Alexander Sarris, Piero Conforti,

Adam Prakash.

2006

E http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/j7468e/j7468e00.htm

No. 15 - The impact of domestic and international commodity price volatility on agricultural income instability in Ghana, Vietnam and Peru. George Rapsomanikis and Alexander Sarris.

2006

E ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j7467e/j7467e00.pdf

No. 14 - Linkages between domestic and international maize markets, and market based strategies for hedging maize import price risks in Tanzania. Alexander Sarris and Ekaterini Mantzou.

2006

E ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j7466e/j7466e00.pdf

No. 13 - Food import risk in Malawi: simulating a hedging scheme for Malawi food imports using historical data. Wouter Zant.

2006

E ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j7465e/j7465e00.pdf

No. 12 - The effect of direct payments of the OECD countries in world agricultural markets. Evidence from partial and general equilibrium frameworks. Piero Conforti.

2005 E ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j6211e/j6211e00.pdf

No. 11 - The impact of import surges: country case study results for Senegal and Tanzania. Ramesh Sharma, David Nyange, Guillaume

Duteutre, Nancy Morgan

2005 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/ae520e/ae520e00.htm

No. 10. Agricultural trade liberalization in the Doha round. Alternative scenarios and strategic interactions between developed and developing countries. Piero Conforti and Luca Salvati.

2005 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/ae406e/ae406e00.htm

No. 9 - The EU cotton policy regime and the implications of the proposed changes for producer welfare. Giannis Karagiannis.

2004 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/j2732e/j2732e00.htm

No. 8 - The impact of domestic and trade policies on the world cotton market. Daneswar Poonyth, Alexander Sarris, Ramesh

Sharma and Shangnan Shui.

2004 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/j2731e/j2731e00.htm

No. 7 - Price transmission in selected agricultural markets. Piero

Conforti. 2004 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/

j2730e/j2730e00.htm

No. 6 - The marketing potential of date palm fruits in the European market. Pascal Liu.

2004 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/J1851E/J1851E00.HTM

No. 5 - World Markets for organic citrus and citrus juices Pascal

Liu. 2004 E http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/0

06/J1850E/J1850E00.HTM

No. 4 - Agricultural policy indicators (also published as ESA 2004/04). Timothy Josling and Alberto Valdés.

2004 E http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/006/J1866E/J1866E00.HTM

No. 3 - Quantifying appropriate levels of the WTO bound tariffs on basic food products in the context of the development box proposals. Ramesh Sharma.

2004 E http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/006/J1864E/J1864E00.HTM

No. 2. - The WTO and environmental and social standards, certification and labelling in agriculture. Cora Dankers.

2003 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/AD431E/AD431E00.HTM

No. 1 - The Brazilian ethanol programme: impacts on world ethanol and sugar markets. Tatsui Koizumi.

2003 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/AD430E/AD430E00.HTM

30

FAO TRADE POLICY BRIEFS on issues related to the WTO negotiations on agriculture:

No 14. Towards appropriate agricultural trade policy for low income developing countries

2006 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/009/j7724e/j7724e01.pdf

No. 13. Global impacts of agricultural trade reforms. Why users need to be more vigilant when interpreting quantitative estimates.

2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j6878e/j6878e01.pdf

No. 12. Rice: What do analytical model results tell us? 2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j5931e/j5931e01.pdf

No 11. Dairy: Measuring the impact of reform 2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j6829e/j6829e01.pdf

No. 10. Special and differential treatment in agriculture 2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j5529e/j5529e01.pdf

No. 9. A special safeguard mechanism for developing countries. 2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j5425e/j5425e01.pdf

No 8. Food aid in the context of international and domestic markets and the Doha Round

2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/j5072e/j5072e01.pdf

No. 7. Agricultural preferences: issues for negotiation. 2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j5424e/j5424e01.pdf

No. 6. Sugar: the impact of reforms to sugar sector policies - a guide to contemporary analyses

2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j5586e/j5586e01.pdf

No. 5. Domestic support: trade related issues and the empirical evidence

2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/j5012e/j5012e01.pdf

No. 4. Export competition: selected issues and the empirical evidence

2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/j5013e/j5013e01.pdf

No. 3. Bananas: is there a tariff-only equivalent to the EU tariff rate quota regime? Insights from economic analysis

2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/j5022e/j5022e01.pdf

No. 2. Tariff reduction formulae: Methodological issues in assessing their effects

2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/j4019e/j4019e01.pdf

No. 1. Cotton: impact of support policies on developing countries - why do the numbers vary?

2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/y5533e/y5533e00.pdf

FAO TRADE POLICY TECHNICAL NOTES on issues related to the WTO negotiations on agriculture:

No 14. Considerations in the reform of agricultural trade policy in low income developing countries

2006 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/009/j7724e/j7724e00.pdf

No. 13. Trade policy simulation models: Estimating global impacts of agricultural trade policy reform in the Doha Round

2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j6878e/j6878e00.pdf

No. 12. Rice: What do analytical model results tell us? 2005 E/F/S/A ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j5931e/j5931e00.pdf

No 11. Dairy - Measuring the impact of reform 2005 E/F/S ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j6829e/j6829e00.pdf

31

No. 10. Special and differential treatment for developing countries. 2005 E/F/S/A ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j5529e/j5529e00.pdf

No. 9. A special safeguard mechanism for developing countries 2005 E/F/S/A ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j5425e/j5425e00.pdf

No. 8. Food Aid in the context of international and domestic markets and the Doha Round

2005 E/F/S/A ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/j5072e/j5072e00.pdf

No. 7. Agricultural preferences: issues for negotiation. 2005 E/F/S/A ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/j5072e/j5072e00.pdf

No. 6. Sugar: the impact of reforms to sugar sector policies - a guide to contemporary analyse

2005 E/F/S/A ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/008/j5586e/j5586e00.pdf

No. 5. Domestic support: trade related issues and the empirical evidence

2005 E/F/S/A ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/j5012e/j5012e00.pdf

No. 4. Export competition: selected issues and the empirical evidence

2005 E/F/S/A ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/j5013e/j5013e00.pdf

No. 3. Bananas: is there a tariff-only equivalent to the EU tariff rate quota regime? Insights from economic analysis

2005 E/F/S/A ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/j5022e/j5022e00.pdf

No. 2. Tariff reduction formulae: Methodological issues in assessing their effects

2005 E/F/S/A ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/j4019e/j4019e00.pdf

No. 1. Cotton: impact of support polices on developing countries - a guide to contemporary analysis

2004 E/F/S/A ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/y5533e/y5533e01.pdf

COMMODITY MARKET REVIEW 2003-2004 2003 E http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/006/Y5117E/Y5117E00.HTM

RAPPORT SUR LES MARCHÉS DES PRODUITS 2003-2004 2004 F http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/007/Y5117F/Y5117F00.HTM

SITUACIÓN DE LOS MERCADOS DE PRODUCTOS BÁSICOS 2003-2004

2004 S http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/007/Y5117S/Y5117S00.HTM

REVIEW OF BASIC FOOD POLICIES - 2002 2003 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/y5073e/y5073e00.htm

EXAMEN DES POLITIQUES RELATIVES AUX PRODUITS ALIMENTAIRES DE BASE - 2002

2003 F http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/y5073f/y5073f00.htm

EXAMEN DE LAS POLÍTICAS SOBRE PRODUCTOS ALIMENTICIOS BÁSICOS - 2002

2003 S http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/y5073s/y5073s00.htm

32

FAO SUPPORT TO THE WTO NEGOTIATIONS

FACTSHEETS FOR THE SIXTH WTO MINISTERIAL CONFERENCE HONG KONG, 2005

http://www.fao.org/trade/index_en.asp

1. Major constraints to trade in processed agricultural products confronting developing countries

2. Identification of special products: possible selection criteria and treatment

3. Forestry trade issues in the WTO

4. Fisheries trade issues in the WTO

5. Trade related intellectual property rights: Plant varieties and biodiversity, traditional knowledge and benefit-sharing

6. Trade related intellectual property rights: geographical indications

7. Important commodities in agricultural trade: bananas

8. Non-tariff measures in agricultural trade

9. Global trade in agriculture, fisheries and forestry

10. Food import bills of least developed countries (LDCs) and net food importing developing countries (NFIDCs)

11. Non traditional agricultural exports (NTAES)

PERIODICALS (click on the link for the latest report):

Food Outlook (two issues per year) ACEFS http://www.fao.org/giews/english/fo/index.htm

Sahel Weather and Crop Situation reports (five issues per growing season)

EF http://www.fao.org/giews/english/esahel/sahtoc.htm

Crop Prospects and Food Situation (six issues per year) CEFS http://www.fao.org/giews/english/cpfs/index.htm

Foodcrops and Shortages (three issues per year until 2006, replaced by Crop Prospects and Food Situation)

CEFS http://www.fao.org/giews/english/fs/index.htm

Africa Report. Food supply situation and crop prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa (three issues per year until 2006, replaced by Crop Prospects and Food Situation)

EF http://www.fao.org/giews/english/eaf/eaftoc.htm

Rice Market Monitor, bi-monthly E http://www.fao.org/es/esc/en/20953/21026/21631/highlight_23001en.html

Oilcrops Market Monitor (bi-monthly) E http://www.fao.org/es/esc/en/20953/21017/21586/highlight_27927en.html

Information notes on Agricultural Commodities AEFS http://www.fao.org/es/ESC/

BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS OF FAO MEETINGS

COMMITTEE ON COMMODITY PROBLEMS (all documents available in Arabic, Chinese, English, French and Spanish)

65th Session (11-13 April 2005) Ctrl+Click on title to follow link

Recent developments in agricultural commodity markets, CCP 05/09

Food security in the context of economic and trade policy reforms: insights from country experiences, CCP 05/11

33

BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS OF FAO MEETINGS

Issues and actions on national and international commodity market risk management, CCP 05/13

Multilateral trade negotiations and food aid, CCP 05/14

Commodity project formulation, preparation and supervision, CCP 05/16

The Cosimo Work Programme at FAO, CCP 05/CRS.4

Agricultural Policy Indicators, CCP 05/CRS 5

A historical background on food aid and key milestones, CCP 05/CRS.6

Impact of OECD agricultural and trade policies on developing countries, CCP 05/INF/7

64th Session (18-21 March 2003) Ctrl+Click on title to follow link

Major Developments and Issues in Agricultural Commodity Markets, CCP: 03/7

Medium-term projections for agricultural commodities, CCP 03/8

Major Policy Issues and Market Factors Having Implications for the Long-Term Performance of Agricultural Exports, CCP 03/9

Some Trade Policy Issues Relating to Trends in Agricultural Imports in the Context of Food Security, CCP 03/10

Report of the Consultation on Agricultural Commodity Price Problems (Rome, 25-26 March 2002), CCP 03/INF/1

63rd Session (6 - 9 March 2001) Ctrl+Click on title to follow link

World Commodity Situation and Outlook, CCP 01/7

Activities on Commodities not covered by Intergovernmental Groups, CCP 01/10

Experience with the Implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, CCP 01/11

Analysis of the Current Market Access Situation and of Further Trade Expansion Options in Global Agricultural Markets, CCP 01/13

Report on Technical Assistance related to the Multilateral Trade Negotiations in Agriculture, CCP 01/13

New and Emerging Issues affecting Commodity Markets, CCP 01/14

62nd Session (12 - 15 January 1999) Ctrl+Click on title to follow link

World Commodity Situation and Outlook and Trends in Protectionism in Agriculture, CCP 99/8

Assessment of the impact of the Uruguay Round on Agricultural Markets, CCP 99/12

Medium-Term prospects for agricultural commodities: Agricultural Commodity Projections to 2005, CCP 99/13

Report on Technical Assistance related to the Uruguay Round, CCP 99/14

Report on activities related to Trade and Environment, Biotechnology and SPS/TBT Measures , CCP 99/15

Trade Issues Facing Small Island Developing States, CCP 99/20

61st Session (25-28 February 1997) Available in paper or electronic form on request

Trade, Environment and Sustainable Agricultural Development (SARD): Follow-up activities., CCP: 97/15

Impact of the Uruguay Round on agriculture: Follow-up activities, CCP: 97/16

Impact of Biotechnology Developments on Trade of Agricultural Commodities, CCP: 97/17

Possible Approaches to Intergovernmental Cooperation on Tropical Fruits, CCP: 97/18

60th Session (3-7 April 1995) Available in paper or electronic form on request

34

BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS OF FAO MEETINGS

World commodity situation and outlook and trends in protectionism in agricultural trade, CCP 95/10

Impact of the Uruguay Round on agriculture, CCP 95/13

International trade, environment and sustainable agricultural development: A progress report, CCP 95/14

The measurement of the impact of environmental regulations on trade, CCP: 95/15

INTERGOVERNMENTAL COMMODITY GROUPS

Sub-Group on Hides and Skin, Eighth Session, Arusha, Tanzania, 1- 3 February 2006 http://www.fao.org/unfao/bodies/ccp/hs/2006/hs06_en.htm

Hides and Skins and Leather – strategy for development

Developments regarding CFC projects on Hides and Skins

Information requirements on hides and skins Conversion Factors - Supplement to Section III of Document CCP: ME/HS 06/4 - Information Requirements On Hides And Skins

Intergovernmental Group on Bananas and Tropical Fruits, Fourth Session, Guayaquil, Ecuador, 19-23 September 2005 ( POSTPONED) http://www.fao.org/unfao/bodies/ccp/ba-tf/2005/bntf05_en.htm

Intergovernmental Group on Tea, Sixteenth Session, Bali, Indonesia, 20–22 July 2005 http://www.fao.org/unfao/bodies/ccp/tea/2004/tea04_en.htm

Current market situation and medium-term outlook

Tea market studies: Egypt, Islamic Republic of Iran, Pakistan and Turkey

Upgrading in the international tea sector: a value chain analysis

Application of price transmission on selected tea markets

Possible approaches to generic promotion of tea and the use of the Tea Mark

The Joint FAO/WHO Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR) process of evaluation for the estimation of maximum residue levels (MRLs): tea

Possible approaches to generic promotion of tea and the use of the Tea Mark

Tea market studies: Egypt, Islamic Republic of Iran, Pakistan and Turkey

Joint Meeting of the Thirty-Third Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Hard Fibres and the Thirty-Fifth Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Jute, Kenaf and Allied Fibres, Rome, 14-17 December 2004 http://www.fao.org/unfao/bodies/ccp/hfj/2004/hfj04_en.htm

Commodity Development Projects Financed by the Common Fund for Commodities.

Commodity Development Strategy

Consultation on Natural Fibres (15-16 December 2004) http://www.fao.org/es/ESC/en/20953/21005/21527/event_51423en.html

Current situation and short term outlook, hard fibres, jute, kenaf and allied fibres

Projections to 2012, hard fibres, jute, kenaf and allied fibres

The environmental impact of hard fibres and jute in non-textile industrial applications

Intergovernmental Group on Meat and Dairy Products, Twentieth Session, Winnipeg, Canada, 17-20 June 2004 http://www.fao.org/unfao/bodies/ccp/me/04/default.htm

35

BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS OF FAO MEETINGS

Impact of Import Surges: Country Case Study Results

The Provision of Government Services to the Livestock Sector

Follow-up to the Guidelines for International Cooperation in the Livestock and Meat Sector

Guidelines for the International Cooperation of the Livestock and Meat Sector

Developments regarding the Common Fund for Commodities

A Development Strategy for Meat

Intergovernmental Group on Bananas and Tropical Fruits, Third Session, Puerto de la Cruz, Spain, 22-26 March 2004, Fourth Session Sub-Group on Tropical Fruits http://www.fao.org/unfao/bodies/ccp/ba-tf/2004/bntf04_en.htm

Medium-Term Projections for World Supply and Demand to 2010 for Tropical Fruits

Recent Developments in the Market for Tropical Fruits in China

Recent International Trade Policy Review for Tropical Fruits and Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures

Tropical Fruits - Their Nutrient Values, Biodiversity and Contribution to Health and Nutrition

Technical Notes - Nutrient Content Tables, Scientific Explanation of Nutrient Values - Notes on An Internationally Standardized Food - Composition Table for Tropical Fruits

The World Pineapple Market: When Growth Goes Hand In Hand With Diversity

The State of the Global Mango Economy

Intergovernmental Group on Bananas and Tropical Fruits, Third Session, Puerto de la Cruz, Spain, 22 - 26 March 2004 http://www.fao.org/unfao/bodies/ccp/ba-tf/2004/bntf04_en.htm

Organic and Fair Trade Bananas and Environmental and Social Certification in the Banana Sector

Review of Developments in Banana Trade Policy

Common Fund Activities Related to Bananas

Current Market Situation for Tropical Fruits

Value Chain Analysis for Bananas and Tropical Fruits

Strategy for Improvement and Development of Bananas for the Common Fund for Commodities

Évolutions récentes et spécificités du marché bananier de la communauté européenne (CE)

Adding Value to Bananas, A Proposal for a Technical Evaluation and Workshop on the Uses and Marketing of Banana-Based Products

An Overview on the Success of the Generic UK Banana Promotional Campaign

Issues Concerning Public Awareness and Attitudes Towards Genetically Modified Bananas and Tropical Fruits

FAO-TFNET-IFOAM Project To Generate Producers' Technical Guidelines on Organic Production of Tropical and Sub-Tropical Fruit Crops

Stratégies de développement de la production bananière par l'introduction et la distribution des meilleures variétés en République Démocratique du Congo, À soumettre pour financement au fonds commun pour les produits de base

Joint Meeting of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains (30th Session) and the Intergovernmental Group on Rice (41st Session) Rome, 10 - 11 February 2004

Critical Review of China’s Cereal Supply and Demand and Implications for World Markets

Follow-Up to the Guidelines for National and International Action on Rice in 2001-2003

Follow-up to the Guidelines for National and International Action on Rice in 2001-2003 - Supplement

36

BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS OF FAO MEETINGS

Cereals and Other Starch-based Staples: Are Consumption Patterns Changing?

Cereals and Other Starch-based Staples: Are Consumption Patterns Changing? - Annexes

Developments Regarding the Common Fund for Commodities

Consultation on Natural Fibres, Salvador, Brazil 8-9 July 2003 Ctrl+Click on title to follow link

The impact of the elimination of tariffs on jute and hard fibre trade

The production and consumption of kenaf in China

Intergovernmental Group on Meat and Dairy Products, 19th Session, Rome 27-29 August, 2002

Ctrl+Click on title to follow link

Medium Term Projections for Meat and Dairy Products to 2010

Animal Diseases: Implications for International Meat Trade

Market Developments for Organic Meat and Dairy Products: Implications for Developing Countries

Follow-up to the Guidelines for International Cooperation in the Livestock and Meat Sector

Guidelines for the International Cooperation of the Livestock and Meat Sector

Developments Regarding the Common Fund for Commodities

Intergovernmental Group on Bananas and Tropical Fruits, Second Session, San José, Costa Rica, 4-8 December 2001.Third Session Sub-Group on Tropical Fruits Ctrl+Click on title to follow link

Market for Tropical Fruits in India

Market Prospects for Tropical Fruits in Russia

Joint Meeting of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains (29th session), Intergovernmental Group on Rice (40th session), Intergovernmental Group on Meat (18th session), Intergovernmental Group on Oilseeds, Oils and Fats, (29th session), Rome, 3 - 5 July 2001 Ctrl+Click on title to follow link

Medium Term Projections to 2010

Follow-Up to the Guidelines for National and International Action/Cooperation in the Rice; Livestock and Meat; And Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals Sectors

Revision of the Guidelines for International Cooperation in the Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals Sector

Developments Regarding the Common Fund for Commodities

Consultation on Natural Fibres, Rome, 12 - 14 December 2000 Ctrl+Click on title to follow link

China's jute and kenaf market: review and prospects

Sisal production and marketing in China: retrospect and prospect

Implications of jute production on food security of households. A study of West Bengal State in India

Intergovernmental Group on Bananas and Tropical Fruits, First Session, Gold Coast, Australia, 4-8 May 1999,

Second Session Sub-Group on Tropical Fruits Ctrl+Click on title to follow link

Market for tropical fruits in China

Regulatory framework for international trade in tropical fruit

Alternative phytosanitary treatments to methyl bromide for tropical fruit exports,

Market Prospects for Tropical Fruits in Russia

Trade Policy Developments for Tropical Fruits Discussion Paper Submitted by the International Plant Protection Convention Secretariat

37

BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS OF FAO MEETINGS

Joint meeting of the 30th Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Hard Fibres and the 32nd Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Jute, Kenaf and Allied Fibres Rome, 7 - 9 December 1998

Ctrl+Click on title to follow link

Food security implications of earnings from production and exports of jute in Bangladesh

Sub-Group on Tropical Fruits, First Session, Pattaya, Thailand, 25-28 May 1998 (Available in paper or electronic form on request ) Ctrl+Click on title to follow link

Recent policy developments in international trade of tropical fruits, CCP: SG TF 98/5

Trade in tropical fruit: Phytosanitary issues concerning imports and exports, CCP: SG TF 98/6

Tropical fruits: Food safety issues under the SPS measures of the World Trade Organization, CCP: SG TF 98/7

The Tropical Fruits Network, CCP: SG TF 98/8

Supply and demand prospects for tropical fruits in Thailand, CCP: SG TF 98/CRS.2

Supply and demand prospects for tropical fruits in Sub-Saharan Africa, CCP: SG TF 98/CRS.3

Supply and demand prospects for tropical fruits in Latin America, CCP: SG TF 98/CRS.4

Tropical fruit demand in the European Union, CCP: SG TF 98/CRS.5

Tropical Fruits Network: The Malaysian proposal, CCP: SG TF 98/CRS.6

Tropical Fruits Network: The Philippine proposal, CCP: SG TF 98/CRS.7

Tropical Fruits Network: The Thai proposal, CCP: SG TF 98/CRS.8

The fruit industry in Malaysia: Present status and future outlook, CCP: SG TF 98/CRS.11

Country Report - Tanzania, CCP: SG TF 98/CRS.12

SPS standards under WTO, CCP: SG TF 98/CRS.13

Country Report - Côte d’Ivoire, CCP: SG TF 98/CRS.14

Perspective and prospects of fruit crops in Pakistan, CCP: SG TF 98/CRS.17

TRADE AND THE WTO NEGOTIATIONS

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

Trade Policy Briefs and Technical Notes

See the Trade section of the FAO Web site

2005 EFSA http://www.fao.org/trade/policy_en.asp

Financing normal levels of commercial imports of basic foodstuffs in the context of the Marrakesh Decision on least-developed and net food-importing developing countries

2003 E ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/006/y5109E/y5109E00.pdf

Improving the value and effective utilization of agricultural trade preferences

2003 E http://www.fao.org//DOCREP/006/Y4963E/Y4963E00.HTM

38

TRADE AND THE WTO NEGOTIATIONS

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

WTO Agreement on Agriculture. The Implementation Experience. Developing country case studies

Bilan de la mise en oeuvre de l’accord sur l’agriculture (OMC) : Études de cas sur des pays en développement

Acuerdo sobre la agricultura de la OMC: la experiencia de su ejecución: Estudios de casos de países en desarrollo

Arabic

2003 EFSA http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/Y4632E/Y4632E00.HTM

http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/y4632F/y4632F00.htm

http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/y4632S/y4632S00.htm

http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/y4632a/y4632a00.htm

Trade Reforms and Food Security. Conceptualizing the Linkages

2003 E http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/Y4671E/Y4671E00.HTM

FAO support to the WTO negotiations.

Factsheets on WTO issues

Appui de la FAO aux négociations de l’OMC. Notes d'information

Apoyo de la FAO a las negociaciones de l’OMC: Hojas de datos

2003 EFS http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4852e/y4852e00.htm

http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4852f/y4852f00.htm

http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4852s/y4852s00.htm

Consultation on agricultural commodity price problems (25-26 March 2002)

2003 E http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/006/Y4344E/Y4344E00.HTM

FAO papers on selected issues related to the WTO negotiations on Agriculture

Etudes de la FAO sur des aspects sélectionnés des négociations de l'OMC sur l'agriculture

Selección de Temas Relacionados con las Negociaciones de la OMC sobre la Agricultura

2002 EFSAC http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/Y3733E/Y3733E00.HTM

http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/Y3733F/Y3733f00.HTM

http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/Y3733S/Y3733S00.HTM

The role of agriculture in the development of least developed countries and their integration into the world economy

Le rôle de l'agriculture dans le développement des pays les moins avancés et leur intégration à l'économie mondiale

El papel de la agricultura en el desarrollo de los PMA y su integración en la economía mundial

2002 EFS http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/007/Y3997E/Y3997E00.HTM

http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/007/Y3997F/Y3997F00.HTM

http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/007/Y3997S/Y3997S00.HTM

The Future of Preferential Trade Arrangements for Developing Countries and the Current Round of WTO Negotiations on Agriculture. Stefan Tangermann.

L'Avenir des Arrangements Commerciaux Préférentiels en Faveur des Pays en Développement et le Nouveau Cycle de Négociations de l'OMC sur l'Agriculture. Stefan Tangermann.

Futuro de los Acuerdos Comerciales Preferenciales para los Países en Desarrollo y la Actual Ronda de Negociaciones de la OMC sobre la Agricultura. Stefan Tangermann.

2002 E/F/S http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/Y2732E/Y2732E00.HTM

http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/Y2732F/Y2732F00.HTM

http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/Y2732S/Y2732S00.HTM

39

TRADE AND THE WTO NEGOTIATIONS

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

Agriculture, Trade and Food Security: Issues and Options in the WTO Negotiations from the Perspective of Developing Countries, Volume I, Report and Papers of an FAO Symposium held at Geneva on 23–24 September 1999.

L'agriculture, le commerce et la sécurité alimentaire questions et alternatives concernant les négociations de l'OMC dans la perspective des pays en développement. Volume I

Agricultura, comercio y seguridad alimentaria: cuestiones y opciones para las negociaciones de la OMC desde la perspectiva de los países en desarrollo. Vol. I.

2000 AEFS http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/003/X4829E/X4829E00.HTM

http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/003/X4829F/X4829F00.HTM

http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/003/X4829S/X4829S00.HTM

Agriculture, Trade and Food Security: Issues and Options in the WTO Negotiations from the Perspective of Developing Countries, Volume II: Country Case Studies, Papers of an FAO Symposium held at Geneva on 23–24 September 1999

L'agriculture, le commerce et la sécurité alimentaire questions et alternatives concernant les négociations de l'OMC dans la perspective des pays en développement. Volume II

Agricultura, comercio y seguridad alimentaria: cuestiones y opciones para las negociaciones de la OMC desde la perspectiva de los países en desarrollo. Vol. II

2000 AEFS http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/003/X8731E/X8731E00.HTM

http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/003/X8731F/X8731F00.HTM

http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/003/X8731S/X8731S00.HTM

Multilateral Trade Negotiations on Agriculture: A Resource Manual

2000 AEFS http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/003/X7351E/X7351E00.HTM

“Environment, Trade and SARD: Concepts, Issues and Tools”. Background Paper 4 in Cultivating our Futures. Proceedings of the FAO/Netherlands Conference on the Multifunctional Character of Agriculture and Land, Maastricht, the Netherlands, 12-17 September 1999

2000 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/x2775e/x2775e00.htm

Trade Issues Facing Small Island Developing States, presented by T. Raney at Special Ministerial Conference on Agriculture in Small Island Developing States, Rome, March 12, 1999

1999 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/meeting/X1009E.htm

Preparing for Multilateral Trade Negotiations on Agriculture: Articulation of Issues and Positions, by R. Sharma, J. Greenfield and P. Konandreas. Paper presented to IFPRI/DSE/CTA International Workshop on Agricultural Policy of African Countries and Multilateral Trade Negotiations – Challenges and Options, Harare, Zimbabwe, November 23-26, 1998

1998 E http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/agric_e/ngs16_e.doc

FAO Trade-Related Technical Assistance and Information, FAO, Rome, 1999

1999 E http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/X3452E/X3452E00.HTM

http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/X3452F/X3452F00.HTM

http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/X3452S/X3452S00.HTM

40

TRADE AND THE WTO NEGOTIATIONS

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

Uruguay Round Agreements: Implications for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries in the Less Advantaged Countries, Proceedings of a Workshop Co-organised by the Agency for International Trade, Information and Cooperation (AITIC) and FAO Geneva, 22-23 September 1998

1999 E

Supporting Import-competing Agricultural Sectors with Tariffs, Safeguards and Domestic Measures within the Framework of the Uruguay Round Agreements, by R. Sharma and P. Konandreas, FAO, Paper presented at a Round Table held in New Delhi, India, January 1999

1999 E

Preparation for the Next Trade Negotiations on Agriculture. Proceedings and papers submitted to Expert Consultation held in Rabat, Morocco, December 1998

1999 E

The Evolving Nature of International Price Instability in Cereals Markets, Alexander Sarris, April 1998

1998 E

Uruguay Round Agreement: Implications for the South Asian Region's Agriculture. Proceedings and papers submitted to FAO/World Bank Workshop held in Kathmandu, Nepal, 22-24 April 1996

1998 E

The implications of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture for developing countries: A training manual, Training Material for Agricultural Planning No. 41, FAO, Rome

1998 E

Medium-term Outlook for Agricultural Commodities, by J. Greenfield. Paper presented to a Round Table on Uruguay Round Issues, Beijing, China, June 1998, FAO, Rome.

1998 E

Challenges and Opportunities: How do Developing Countries Prepare for the Next Round of Trade Negotiations? by J. Greenfield. Paper presented to a Round Table on Uruguay Round Issues, Beijing, China, June 1998, FAO, Rome.

1998 E

The Impact of the Asian Financial Crisis on Agricultural Commodity Markets, by J. Greenfield. Paper presented to a Round Table on Uruguay Round Issues, Beijing, China, June 1998, FAO, Rome.

1998 E

Is Freer Agricultural Trade Harmful for National Food Security? The case of least developed and net food-importing developing countries, by H. de Haen and P. Konandreas, FAO

1998 E

Policy Options for Developing Countries to Support Food Security in the Post-Uruguay Round Period, by P. Konandreas and J. Greenfield. Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 1998

1998 E

41

TRADE AND THE WTO NEGOTIATIONS

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

Safeguarding Food Security in the Continuation of the Reform Process under the WTO, by P. Konandreas. Paper presented to Agriculture, Trade and the WTO: preparing for the 1999 Negotiations, An International Workshop of NGOs and Farmers, 15-18 May 1998, Geneva

1998 E

L’accord sur l’agriculture de l’OMC: Conséquences pour le Sénégal, by J. Lindland and P. Konandreas, Dec. 1997, 63 pp, plus Annexes

1998 F

The Food Situation in the Least Developed and Net Food Importing Developing Countries. Paper presented to the WTO Committee on Agriculture, Nov. 20-21, 1997

1997 E

The Impact of the Marrakesh Agreement on Trade of Agricultural Products in ACP Countries, by R. Sharma. Paper prepared for the ACP Secretariat, April 1997

1997 E

Policy Options for Developing Countries to Support Food Security in the Post-Uruguay Round Period, by P. Konandreas and J. Greenfield. Paper presented to the Seminar on Markets and Institutions for Food Security, Brussels, 10-12 Dec. 1997

1997 E

Food Aid and the Implementation of the Marrakesh Decision. Paper by P. Konandreas, June 1997

1997 E

The Impact of the Uruguay Round on Agriculture in Southern Africa, Implications and Policy Responses. Proceedings and papers submitted to FAO/SADC Workshop held in Harare, Zimbabwe, 21-23 January 1997, 223pp

1997 E

The Impact of the Uruguay Round on Tariff Escalation in Agricultural Products, by J. Lindland, April 1997, 84 pp. (E, summary in FS)

1997 E ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/006/w4357e/w4357e00.pdf

Implementing the Uruguay Round Agreement in Latin America: the Case of Agriculture. FAO/World Bank Workshop held in Santiago, Chile, 28-30 November 1995, Feb. 1997, 204 pp.

1997 E Available in paper form.

Review of Cereal Price Situation in Selected Developing Countries in 1995-96 and Policy Measures to Offset the Price Rise

1997 E Available in paper form.

An Overview of Assessments of the Impact of the Uruguay Round on Agricultural Prices and Incomes, by R. Sharma, P. Konandreas and J. Greenfield in Food Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5, Sept./Nov. 1996

1996 E http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03069192

The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture: Food Security Implications for Developing Countries, by J. Greenfield, M. de Nigris and P. Konandreas in Food Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5, Sept./Nov. 1996 (E)

1996 E http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03069192

42

TRADE AND THE WTO NEGOTIATIONS

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

Uruguay Round Commitments on Domestic Support: their Implications for Developing Countries, by P. Konandreas and J. Greenfield in Food Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5, Sept./Nov. 1996

1996 E http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03069192

Implications of the Uruguay Round on the World Rice Economy, by Chan Ling Yap, in Food Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5, Sept./Nov. 1996

1996 E http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03069192

Potential Erosion of Trade Preferences in Agricultural Products, by F. Yamazaki in Food Policy, Vol. 21, No. 4/5, Sept./Nov. 1996

1996 E http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03069192

Changing Trade Environment for Oilseeds and Products in the Asia and Pacific Region. Report of Expert Consultation held in Bangkok, Thailand, January 1996

1996 E

Impact of the Uruguay Round on Agriculture 1995 EFS http://www.fao.org/docrep/V7900E/V7900E00.htm

The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture: Implications for Food Security in the Asia and Pacific Region. In Benefits and Challenges Facing Asia-Pacific Agricultural Trading Countries in the Post-Uruguay Round Period, ESCAP 1994

1994 E

The Impact of a Changing International Trade Environment on Agricultural Trade in the Near East Region. Proceedings and papers submitted to Expert Consultation held in Nicosia, Cyprus, December 1994

1994 AE

The Uruguay Round Agreement: A preliminary assessment

1994 EFS

MARKET ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

Agricultural Commodity Markets and Trade. New approaches to Analyzing Market Structure and Instability Edited by: Alexander Sarris, David Hallam

2006 E Cheltenham (UK). 472 pp., hardback ISBN 92-5-105313-8 TC/M/Y6083/E $135.00 (Co-published with Edward Elgar, UK).

Trade in Medicinal Plants 2006 E www.fao.org/docrep/008/AF285E/AF285e00.htm

43

MARKET ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2005-2014

Perspectives agricoles de l‘OECD et de la FAO 2005-2014

2005 E/F Available on application.

Banana Information Note 2005 Multi http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/j5023t/j5023t00.htm

Rice Market Monitor - March 2005 2005 http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/ae591e/ae591e00.htm

Projections of Tobacco Production, Consumption and Trade to the Year 2010

2003 E http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/006/Y4956E/Y4956E00.HTM

A blueprint for the African leather industry: a development, investment and trade guide for the leather industry in Africa. CFC/UNIDO/ITC UNCTAD/WTO/FAO. Common Fund for Commodities Technical Paper No. 30.

2003 E/F http://www.fao.org/docrep/007/y5310e/y5310f00.htm

Third Expert Meeting on Socially and Environmentally Responsible Horticulture Production and Trade. Theme: building partnerships for responsible trade, Nuremberg, Germany, 16 February 2003

2003 http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/AD09cnb 2u2E/AD092E00.HTM

Consultation on agricultural commodity price problems (25-26 March 2002)

2003 E http://www.fao.org/es/esc/common/ecg/27651_en_consult.pdf

Citrus Fruit: Fresh and Processed - Annual Statistics 2002

2002 Trilingual EFS

http://www.fao.org/es/esc/en/20953/20990/highlight_28189en.html

Proceedings of the Expert Consultation on Tea Market Issues, Washington, DC, USA, 25 September 2002

2002 http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/006/Y4344E/Y4344E00.HTM

Agricultural Commodities, Profiles and Relevant WTO Negotiating Issues (prepared for Consultation on agricultural commodity price problems)

2002 http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/006/Y4343E/Y4343E00.HTM

Coir Processing Technologies - Improvement of Drying, Softening, Bleaching and Dyeing Coir Fibre/Yarn and Printing Coir Floor Coverings – Common Fund for Commodities/FAO

2002 http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/Y3612E/Y3612E00.HTM

World Markets for Organic Fruits and Vegetables. Opportunities for Developing Countries in the Production and Export of Organic Horticultural Products

2001 E http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/004/Y1669E/Y1669E00.HTM

44

MARKET ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

Le Marchés Mondiaux des Fruits et Légumes Biologiques. Opportunités pour les pays en développement dans la production et l’exportation de produits horticoles biologiques

2001 F http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/004/Y1669f/Y1669f00.HTM

Los Mercados Mundiales de Frutas y Verduras Orgánicas. Oportunidades para los países en desarrollo en cuanto a la producción y exportación de productos hortícolas orgánicos

2001 S http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/004/Y1669s/Y1669s00.HTM

China/FAO Citrus Symposium, 14-17 May 2001, Beijing, People’s Republic of China

2001 EFS http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/003/X6732E/X6732E00.HTM

Report of the Second Expert Meeting on Socially and Environmentally Responsible Banana Production and Trade, San José, Costa Rica,,10-11 December 2001.

2001 E http://www.fao.org/es/ESC/en/20953/20987/highlight_29090en.html

Economic and Financial Comparison of Organic and Conventional Citrus-growing Systems in Spain

2001 E http://www.fao.org/es/ESC/en/20953/20990/21447/highlight_28209en.html

World Statistical Compendium for Raw Hides and Skins, Leather and Leather Footwear

2001 EFS http://www.fao.org/es/ESC/en/20953/21008/highlight_30527en_p.html. Available in paper form.

Evaluación Económico-Financiera de los Sistemas de Cultivo en Cítricos Biológicos (Orgánicos) versus Convencionales

2001 S http://www.fao.org/es/ESC/es/20953/20990/21447/highlight_28209es.html

Alternative Applications for Sisal and Henequen - Common Fund for Commodities - Technical Paper No. 14. Proceedings of a Seminar held by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the Common Fund for Commodities (CFC), Rome, 13 December 2000.

2001 E http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/004/Y1873E/Y1873E00.HTM

The world cassava economy: Facts, Trends and Outlook 2000 Available in paper form.

Comparative Analysis of the Main Environmental and

Social Certification Programmes in the Banana Sector, background paper prepared for the expert meeting on Environmentally and Socially Responsible Banana Production and Trade, March 2000

2000 E Available in paper form.

Medium-Term Prospects for Agricultural Commodities: Projections to the Year 2005

2000 AEFS Available in paper form.

Proceedings of the FAO Cuba Sugar Conference 7-9 December 1999

1999 ES http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/X4988E/X4988E00.HTM

Advisory consultation on ACP sugar policy and trade, 13-14 September 1999 (M'babane, Swaziland)

1999 E http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/X4066E/X4066E00.HTM

45

MARKET ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

The World Cotton Market: Projections to 2005, ICAC and ESC/FAO, September 1999

1999 E Available in paper form.

Meeting the Challenge in the World Cotton Market and the Chinese Cotton Industry: Proceedings of the 1999 China International Cotton Conference, October 1999.

1999 EFSC Available in paper form.

Citrus Fruit: Fresh and Processed - Annual Statistics 1999

1999 Available in paper form.

Global Outlook for Cassava to the Year 2005, future trends and determining factors, by A. Coccia, presented at the Workshop on Local Processing and Vertical Diversification in Southern and Eastern Africa, CFC, COMESA, FAO and IFAD, 15-19 June 1998 Mukono, Uganda. (E)

1998 E Available in paper form.

White Maize: a Traditional Foodgrain in Developing Countries (FAO/CIMMYT)

1997 EF http://www.fao.org/docrep/W2698E/W2698E00.htm

Le Maïs Blanc: Céréale Alimentaire Traditionnelle dans les Pays en Développement

1997 F http://www.fao.org/docrep/W2698E/W2698f00.htm

Tendencias al mercado internacional de lacteos, by Mr. Griffin, paper presented at a seminar - El perfil de la lecheria, CREA en el 2000 organised by Consorcio Regional de Experimentacion Agricola, Mar del Plata, Argentina. Oct. 1997 (S)

1997 S Available in paper form.

Trends in Demand for Dairy Products: the Middle East and North Africa, by M. Griffin. Paper presented at the International Dairy Federation's Annual Sessions, Reykjavik, Iceland, 1997 (E)

1997 E Available in paper form.

Electronic Information Systems for the Dairy Sector: FAO's Dairy Outlook and Dairy Bulletin Services, by M. Griffin, paper to be presented at the International Dairy Federation's Annual Sessions, Reykjavik, Iceland, 1997 (EF)

1997 EF Available in paper form.

World Meat Situation and Outlook 1997, Aug. 1997 (EFS)

1997 EFS Available in paper form.

The Medium Term Outlook for World Supply and Demand for Rice: Major Issues of Concern, by C.L Yap, International Forum on Rice, Sendai City, Japan 17 - 18 May 1997 (E)

1997 E Available in paper form.

46

MARKET ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

World Dairy Situation: Changes and Trends, by M. Griffin, paper presented at Teagasc National Dairy Conference, Fermoy, Ireland, March 1997 (ES)

1997 ES Available in paper form.

A Quantitative Market Outlook for Sugar to 2005 in Major Asia and Pacific Countries, Fiji Conference, Sugar and Beverage Group, 1997

1997 E Available in paper form.

Proceedings and Papers Submitted to the Fiji/FAO 1997 Asia Pacific Sugar Conference, Fiji, Oct. 1997. Vol. I and Vol. II

1997 E Available in paper form.

A Quantitative Market Outlook for Sugar to 2005 in Major Asia and Pacific Countries, Fiji Conference, Sugar and Beverage Group, 1997

1997 E Available in paper form.

Proceedings and Papers Submitted to the Fiji/FAO 1997 Asia Pacific Sugar Conference, Fiji, Oct. 1997. Vol. I and Vol. II

1997 E http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/X0513E/X0513E00.HTM

Impact of Trade Liberalization on the World Sugar Market, Francis Tuan, Group Leader Economic Research Service, USDA

1997 E Available in paper form.

What has been the Impact of on-going Reforms and Structural Adjustments on the World Sugar Market? Tony Hannah Chief Economist, ISO

1997 E Available in paper form.

Demand for Tropical Fruits: Case Study for France, Germany and the United Kingdom ICTF 96/4

1996 EFS Available in paper form.

Processed Tropical Fruits ICTF 96/5 (EFS) 1996 EFS Available in paper form.

Development in International Trade Policies for Tropical, ICTF 96/7 (EFS)

1996 ESF Available in paper form.

Tropical Fruits: Nutrition and Food Standards ICTF 96/9

1996 EFS Available in paper form.

La influencia del hemisferio norte en futuros desarrollos en el mercado lechero internacional, by M. Griffin, paper presented at a seminar - Aspectos Técnicos y Perspectivas de la Producción de Leche - organised by the Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuaras, Osorno, Chile, Oct. 1996

1996 S Available in paper form.

Supply and Demand for Mediterranean Rice: Prospects for Mediterranean Rice Producers, by C.L. Yap, Second Technical Consultation of the Inter-regional Co-operative Research Network on Rice, Arles, France, 4-7 Sept. 1996

1996 E Available in paper form.

47

MARKET ANALYSIS AND OUTLOOK

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

The World Sorghum and Millet Economies: Facts, Trends and Outlook, joint FAO/ICRISAT publication, 1996

1996 EFS Available in paper form.

World Tropical Fruits Statistics ICTF 96/2 1996 Available in paper form.

Potatoes in the 1990s. FAO and International Potato Center

1995 Available in paper form.

A Review of Commitments in the Cereal Sector under the Uruguay Round Agreement, in Cereal Policies Review, 1994-95, Aug. 1995

1995 Available in paper form.

GATT's Effect on Rice: Plus ça va et plus ça change? by Chan Ling Yap in CERES, No. 154, Vol. 27, No. 4, July-August 1995

1995 EFS http://www.fao.org/docrep/V6640F/v6640f02.htm

The Uruguay Round Final Act and Its Implications for the World Grains Economy

1995 EFS Available in paper form.

The Impact of a Changing International Trade En-

vironment on Agricultural Trade in the Near East

Region. Proceedings and papers submitted to Expert Consultation held in Nicosia, Cyprus, December 1994

1994 AE Available in paper form.

Implications for the Uruguay Round for European

Union Trade with Third Countries with Specific

Reference to Fresh Fruits and Vegetable Trade with the

Near East Region, by A. Swinbank, University of Reading, and C. Ritson, University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne, RNEA/8O7/ EC/3, December 1994

1994 E Available in paper form.

The Changing World Trade Environment in the Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals Sector with Special Reference to the Asia and Pacific Region, prepared by M. Pasquali, RAPA/CTEO/3, Dec. 1994

1994 E Available in paper form.

ENVIRONMENT

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

Third Expert Meeting on Socially and Environmentally Responsible Horticulture Production and Trade. Theme: building partnerships for responsible trade, Nuremberg, Germany, 16 February 2003

2003 E http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/AD092E/AD092E00.HTM

48

ENVIRONMENT

Year of publication

Lang. Link/

notes

Report of the Second Expert Meeting on Socially and Environmentally Responsible Banana Production and Trade, San José, Costa Rica,10-11 December 2001.

2001 E http://www.fao.org/es/ESC/common/ecg/29090_en_Working2doc.pdf

Report of the Expert Meeting on Environmentally and Socially Responsible Banana Production and Trade, March 2000

2000 E Available in paper form.

Comparative Analysis of the Main Environmental and Social Certification Programmes in the Banana Sector, background paper prepared for the expert meeting on Environmentally and Socially Responsible Banana Production and Trade, March 2000

2000 E Available in paper form.

Producing and Marketing Quality Organic Products: Opportunities and Challenges, speech by Hartwig de Haen, ADG, Economic and Social Department at the IFOAM Trade Conference, October 1999

1999 E Available in paper form.

Environment, Sustainability and Trade Linkages for Basic Foodstuffs, 1996, 51 pp.

1996 E Available in paper form.

Economic Assessment of Production-Related Environ-mental Impacts, by J. Winpenny and R. Williams, ODI, ESC/Misc/94/7, 1995

1995 E Available in paper form.

ESC MISCELLANEOUS PUBLICATIONS AND DISCONTINUED SERIES

ESC/M/81/1 The Economic Significance of Tobacco

ESC/81/2 Policy guidelines for rice, livestock and meat, oilseeds, oils and oilmeals

ESC/M/83/3 Price trends of agricultural commodities 1960-81

ESC/M/83/4 Wine: Prospects for Production, Consumption and trade

ESC/M/83/5 Commodity Agreements: Contemporary problems and prospects

ESC/M/83/6 Exports of Cereals by source and destination

ESC/M/83/7 Income elasticities of demand for agricultural products

EC/M/83/8 Growth of World population: past and projected 1961 to 2000

ESC/M/83/9 The wine economy in Latin America: problems and prospects

ESC/M/83/10 Agricultural commodity projections: national income statistics

ESC/Misc/85 The world market for tropical horticultural products

ESC/M/85/1 Exports of cereals by source and destination

ESC/M/86/1 Income elasticities of demand for agricultural products

49

ESC MISCELLANEOUS PUBLICATIONS AND DISCONTINUED SERIES

ESC/M/86/2 Growth of world population: past and projected 1960 to 2025

ESC/M/86/3 Exports of cereals by source and destination 1986/87

ESC/M/86/4 World Food Model - Model specification supplement to FAO Agricultural Commodity Projections to 1990

ESC/M/86/5 The world hides, skins and derived products economy: Global analysis of recent developments and future outlook

ESC/M/86/5 World Statistical Compendium for Hides, Skins, Leather and Leather Footwear

ESC/M/86/8 Compendium of Macro-economic indicators

ESC/M/89/1 World statistical compendium for Raw Hides and Skins, Leather and leather footwear 1969-87

ESC/M/89/2 Income elasticities of demand for agricultural products

ESC/M/89/3 World apparel fibre consumption survey 1989

ESC/M/89/3 Global outlook for wheat, soybeans and feedgrains

ESCB:90/Misc. 1 The Impact of Agricultural Trade Liberalization on World Cereals Instability and Stocks (by Professor A. Sarris)

ESC/M/90/1 Exports of cereals by source and destination 1987/88

ESC/M/90/2 Market Prospects for Edible Nuts

ESC/M/90/3 Exports of Cereals by Source and Destination 1988/89

ESC/M/91/1 Diversified Jute Products

ESC/M/91/2 Exports of cereals by source and destination 1989/90

ESC/M/91/3 Situation and outlook for world supply and demand of fats and oilmeals 1991/92

ESC/M/91/4/5/6 (same document with different instructions presented to the APC, ITC Seminars in Latin America, ICRISAT International Conference)

ESC/M/91/7 Forecasts, production, imports, exports and utilization of wheat and coarse grains 1991/92 - carryover stocks of cereals, 1992

• Global Compendium on Conversion Factors for Raw Hides and Skins and Leather, 1992 (EFS)

• World Apparel Fibre Consumption Survey, ESC/M/95/5, 1995 (EFS)

• World Statistical Compendium for Raw Hides and Skins, Leather and Leather Footwear, 1977 to 1995, 1996 (EFS)

• Economic Assessment of Production-Related Environ-mental Impacts, by J. Winpenny and R. Williams, ODI, ESC/Misc/94/7, 1995

• Reporting procedures and consultative obligations under the FAO principles of surplus disposal. A guide for members of the CSSD (2001)

ESCP/No 1 (1996) Review of the Cereal Price Situation in Selected Developing Countries in 1995/96 and Policy Measures to Offset the Price Rise

ESCP/No 2 (1996) Report of a Meeting of Experts on Agricultural Price Instability. Rome, 10-11 June 1996

ESCP/No 3 (1997) The Impact of the Uruguay Round on Tariff Escalation in Agricultural Products by J. Lindland ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/006/w4357e/w4357e00.pdf

ESCP/No 4 (1997) L’Accord sur l’agriculture de l'ÓMC: Consequences pour le Sénégal (F)

ESCP/No 4 (1998) The evolving nature of international price instability in cereals markets by Alexander Sarris. (1998)

50

ESC MISCELLANEOUS PUBLICATIONS AND DISCONTINUED SERIES

Cereal Policies Review

- annual up to 1998-99, when it was replaced by Review of Basic Food Policies http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/X4860E/X4860E00.HTM (EFS)

Commodity Review and Outlook

- annual until 1994-95, when it was replaced by Commodity Market Review http://www.fao.org/docrep/T1980E/T1980E00.htm (EFS)

ESC PAPERS IN THE FAO ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PAPERS SERIES

26. The Commodity Trade Implications of the European Economic Community Enlargement

1983 EFS

27. New Protectionism and attempts at liberalization in agricultural trade

1983 EFS

29. Expanding agricultural commodity trade among developing countries

1983 EFS

31. World Banana Economy: statistical compendium 1983 Trilingual

32. Approaches to world food security 1983 EFS

34. Food aid for development 1985 EFS

36. Cereals: selected aspects of production, trade and price policies

1983 E

37. Changing patterns and trends in feed utilization 1983/84 EFS

38. Oilseeds and oils: national policies of selected countries

1983 E

39. Assessing food aid requirements 1983 EFS

41. Promoting agricultural trade among developing countries

1984 EFAS

49. World meat economy in figures 1985 Trilingual

50. Sugar: Major trade and stabilization issues in the eighties

1985 EFS

53. World food security: Selected themes and issues 1985 EFS

54. Rice, selected aspects of production trade and price policies

1986 EFS

55. Food aid and food security: past performance and future potential

1985 EFS

56. Impact of national grain policies on world grain supplies and prices

1985 E

57. The world banana economy 1970-1984: structure, performance an prospects

1986 EFS

62. FAO Agricultural Commodity Projections to 1990

1989 EFS

70. Economic Cooperation among developing countries in agricultural trade

1987 EFS

75. Agricultural policies, protectionism and trade: selected working papers

1989 EFS

76. The world market for tropical horticultural products - prospects and development requirements

1989 ES

77. Impact of changing technological and economic factors on markets for natural industrial fibres

1989 EFS

78. Citrus juices: trends and prospects in world 1989 EFS

51

ESC PAPERS IN THE FAO ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PAPERS SERIES production and international trade

79. Roots, Tubers and plantains in food security: sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Caribbean, Pacific

1989 EFS

80. Aspects of the world feed-livestock economy - structural changes, prospects and issues

1989 EFS

85. Economic significance of tobacco 1989 EFS

89. Tobacco projections to 2000 1990 EFS

89. Effects of stabilization and structural adjustment programmes on food security

1989 EFS

101. A comparison of the cost of producing rice in selected countries.

1991 E

120. Medium-term prospects for agricultural commodities. Projections to 2000.

1994 EFS

52

Annex VI Evaluation Questionnaire Sent to Member Countries

Name of Country Completing the Questionnaire

Job Title and Government Department of Person completing the Questionnaire:

1. In your country, how important is each of the following FAO activities related to

commodities and trade?

Low priority Some priority High priority

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1.1 Maintaining an information service on the world commodity market situation and outlook for all the

main agricultural commodities

1.2 Providing information and intelligence on other aspects of agricultural commodity markets and trade

(including medium to long term projections)

1.3 Identifying specific commodity problems and proposing actions to mitigate them

1.4 The FAO Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP)

1.5 The Inter-Governmental Commodity Groups (IGGs)

1.6 Advising individual developing countries on formulating and implementing their national

commodity policies

1.7 Providing commodity and trade policy analyses and support to developing countries for trade

negotiations

1.8 Monitoring continuously the world supply/demand

outlook for food

1.9 Global food security analysis

Comments or clarifications (if any)

2. What is the priority for your country of FAO's work in international markets and trade of

the following commodity types (products) ?

Low priority Some priority High priority

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2.1 Primary food crops

53

2.2 Horticultural crops

2.3 Primary industrial crops

2.4 Processed (value-added) food crops

2.5 Processed (value-added) industrial crops

2.6 Livestock products

Comments or clarifications (if any)

3. In which area of trade development and trade policy does your country give greatest

priority to the work of FAO ?

Low priority Some priority High priority

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

3.1 Global trade negotiations

3.2 Trade agreements between developed and developing countries (e.g., FTAs, PTAs such as EC-

ACCP)

3.3 Regional and sub-regional trade agreements

3.4 Tariff and other economic barriers to trade such as

quotas

3.5 Non-tariff barriers to trade such as sanitary and phytosanitary standards

Comments or clarifications (if any)

4. Since 2000, has your country requested assistance in agricultural commodity markets

and/or agricultural trade:

Yes No

4.1 from FAO?

4.2 from sources other than FAO?

If yes, from whom?

5. Since 2000, what assistance was received from FAO and what is the level of satisfaction

with that assistance?

Yes No 5.1 Has your country received any assistance from FAO or has it

participated in workshops or networks since 2000 for agricultural commodity markets and agricultural trade?

If no, there is no need to proceed further with question 5

Yes No 5.2 TCP Projects Assistance

54

If yes, to what extent did this assistance meet

expectations?

Poorly

As expected

Very well

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Yes No 5.3 Donor-funded or nationally funded (TF) projects

If yes, to what extent did this assistance meet expectations?

Poorly

As expected

Very well

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Yes No 5.4 Assistance with preparation of a project for donor funding

If yes, to what extent did this assistance meet expectations?

Poorly

As expected

Very well

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

5 (Continued) Since 2000, what assistance was received from FAO and what is the level of

satisfaction with that assistance?

Yes No 5.5 Participation in workshops/seminars (please list those in which

participated):

If yes, to what extent did this assistance meet expectations?

Poorly

As expected

Very well

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Yes No 5.6 Participation in network(s) (please list those in which participated):

If yes, to what extent did this assistance meet expectations?

Poorly

As expected

Very well

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Yes No 5.7 Other (please specify):

55

If yes, to what extent did this assistance meet

expectations?

Poorly

As expected

Very well

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Please explain your answers to question 5, particularly related to items scored 1-3 and 8-10

6. Was any assistance requested from FAO but not received in the following areas? If yes, please indicate the reasons in the space at the

bottom of question 6

Yes No

6.1 TCP Project(s)

6.2 Preparation of a project for donor funding

6.3 Expert advice on commodity and trade policy

6.4 Other (please specify)

Explanation

7. Publications and websites

Yes No 7.1 Are you familiar with FAO publications (printed or electronic) for

example: State of Agricultural Commodity Markets; The Commodity Market Review; Food Outlook; Rice Market Monitor; FAO Commodity and Trade Proceedings; FAO Trade Policy Briefs; Commodity studies

and commodities and trade working papers

If no, there is no need to proceed further with question 7.1

If yes, to what extent do these meet your country’s

needs?

Poorly

Reasonably

Very well

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Yes No 7.2 Have you consulted FAO websites related to commodity and agricultural trade policies and information? If no, there is no need to proceed

further with question 7.2

If yes, to what extent do these meet your country’s needs?

Poorly

Reasonably

Very well

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

7.3 Please explain your answers, particularly related to items scored 1-3 and 8-10.

56

7.4 What FAO publications, if any (printed or electronic), have proved particularly useful to you? Why?

8. Please compare FAO’s work on commodity and trade issues to that of other sources

Do not

know

FAO performs worse than

others

FAO performs as well as others

FAO performs better than

others

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

8.1 Market monitoring and assessment for basic food commodities

8.2 Projections and global commodity market

analysis

8.3 Market monitoring and assessments of tropical, horticultural and raw material commodities

8.4 Commodity and trade policy support to

developing countries for trade negotiations

8.5 Analysis and consensus-building on emerging

commodity and trade issues

8.6 Work to enhance diversification and competitiveness of agricultural commodities

8.7 Technical support and projects for member

countries

8.8 Please state with which other institution(s) you

compared FAO’s performance in making your assessment (e.g. WTO, UNCTAD, IFPRI, World

Bank, universities, Regional Economic Bodies,

International Commodities Bodies, etc.)

Comments and clarifications on your responses

9. Opinions on FAO’s work on commodity and trade issues

Agree Disagree

9.1 FAO’s work on commodities and trade is well known in our country

9.2 FAO has been responsive to our country’s expressed needs in

commodities and trade (provision of trade policy advice, of information, of

technical assistance)

9.3 FAO is not presently addressing our country’s needs related to

commodities and trade

9.4 FAO cooperates well on matters of commodities and trade with other national and international partners in our country

57

9.5 FAO’s work on commodities and trade is most useful to:

• public sector/government

• private sector

Comments and clarifications on your responses

10. Are you familiar with FAO’s work in the following areas related to commodities and trade

issues? If so, please provide your assessment regarding their quality

Yes No 10.1 Domestic agricultural and food policies – monitoring and analysis

Poor work Satisfactory work Excellent work

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

If yes, was their quality:

Yes No 10.2 Multilateral trade negotiations (WTO) – both analysis and technical assistance

Poor work Satisfactory work Excellent work

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

If yes, was their quality:

Yes No 10.3 Regional, bilateral and preferential trade agreements – both

analysis and technical assistance

Poor work Satisfactory work Excellent work

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

If yes, was their quality:

Yes No 10.4 Trade and commodity policy modelling

Poor work Satisfactory work Excellent work

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

If yes, was their quality:

Yes No 10.5 Implications of increased concentration along the market chain for

primary producers

Poor work Satisfactory work Excellent work

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

If yes, was their quality:

Yes No 10.6 Strategies for increased value addition in domestic and export markets

Poor work Satisfactory work Excellent work

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

If yes, was their quality:

Yes No

58

Yes No 10.7 Changing structures of global food markets and implications for

Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDCs)

Poor work Satisfactory work Excellent work

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

If yes, was their quality:

Yes No 10.8 Vertical and horizontal diversification strategies to reduce excessive

primary commodity dependence

Poor work Satisfactory work Excellent work

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

If yes, was their quality:

10.9 Contribution of trade to household food security Yes No

Poor work Satisfactory work Excellent work

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

If yes, was their quality:

10.10 Vulnerability to commodity shocks at both the macro and

household levels in open economies

Yes No

Poor work Satisfactory work Excellent work

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

If yes, was their quality:

Comments and clarifications on your responses

11. Any additional comments and clarifications on the answers provided above and on the

services of FAO in Commodities and Trade