EVALUATION OF ArcSWAT MODEL FOR STREAMFLOW … · EVALUATION OF ArcSWAT MODEL FOR STREAMFLOW...
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EVALUATION OF ArcSWAT MODEL FOR STREAMFLOW SIMULATION
2012 International SWAT Conference
By
Arbind K. Verma1 and Madan K.Jha2
1. Assistant Professor, SASRD, Nagaland University,
Ngaland (India)
2. Professor, AGFE Department, IIT Kharagpur (India)
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Introduction
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Water Availability m3/person/year
Country’s Status
>2000 Adequate
1000-2000 Water-stressed
<500 Water Scarce
Source: Bouwer (2000)
1820
1140
2001 2050Source: Gupta and Deshpande (2004)
Per
cap
ita
wat
er
avai
labi
lity
m3/year
m3/year P
opul
atio
n
1640 million
1028 million
Present and future per capita water availability in India
Introduction (Contd.)
4
Introduction (Contd.)
5
Introduction (Contd.)
Watershed Hydrologic Models
SWAT GWLF WAM
HSPF WEPP ANSWER
MIKE SHE AGNPS HEC-HMS
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Calibration and validation of ArcSWAT
watershed model for the simulation of streamflow.
Performance evaluation of the model for
simulation of streamflow.
Objectives
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22°11'51.65"N
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• Pre Processing of Hydro-meteorological Data, Preparation of model specific weather input files (Daily Rainfall and streamflow data of 8 years- 1998-2005)
• Preparation of Spatial Data for the Study Area:
DEM, Land use/land cover map and Soil map
METHODOLOGY
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Land use/Land cover map Soil map
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Contour Map
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DEM Sub watersheds and Stream reaches
No. of Sub watersheds =15
No. of HRUs =271
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Calibration and validation of ArcSWAT model for the simulation of stream flow ArcSWAT model set up Sensitivity analysis for 18 streamflow parameters
(LH-OAT Sampling techniques), Calibration (SCEA-UA method) and Validation Performance evaluation of model for simulation of
streamflow at daily and monthly time steps using statistical and graphical indicators
METHODOLOGY (contd.)
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Model Performance Statistics
Statistical Indicators
Mathematical Expression
RSR
PBIAS
NSE
RMSESTDEVobs
Moriasi et al. (2007)
( ) ( )
( )
1001
1
nQ Qo s ii
nQo ii
−∑
= ∑ =
( )n
o s ii 1n
o oi 1 i
Q QNSE 1
Q Q
=−
=
−= −
−
∑
∑
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Performance Ratings of a Model for Monthly Time Step
Performance Rating RSR NSE
PBIAS (%) Streamflow Sediment
Very good 0.00 < RSR < 0.50
0.75 < NSE < 1.00
PBIAS < ±10 PBIAS < ±15
Good 0.50 < RSR < 0.60
0.65 < NSE < 0.75
±10 < PBIAS < ±15
±15 < PBIAS < ±30
Satisfactory 0.60 < RSR < 0.70
0.50 < NSE < 0.65
±15 < PBIAS < ±25
±30 < PBIAS < ±55
Unsatisfactory RSR > 0.70 NSE < 0.50 PBIAS > ±25 PBIAS > ±55
Moriasi et al. (2007)
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RESULTS
Streamflow Simulation
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Sensitivity Analysis Results for ArcSWAT Streamflow Parameters
Sl.No. Parameters Unit Mean
Sensitivity Index
Assigned Rank
1 Baseflow alpha factor (Alpha_Bf) days 1.4722 1 2 Manning coefficient for channel (CH_N) 1.3714 2 3 Surface runoff lag coefficient (Surlag) 0.2512 3
4 SCS curve number for moisture condition II (Cn2) 0.2141 4
5 Effective hydraulic conductivity in main channel (Ch_K2)
mm/hr 0.1877 5
6 Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer required for return flow to occur (Gwqmn)
mm 0.0921 6
7 Soil evaporation compensation factor (Esco) 0.0346 7
8 Groundwater delay (Gw_Delay) (days) 0.0249 8
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Sensitivity Analysis Results (contd.)
Sl.No. Parameters
Unit Mean Sensitivity
Index
Assigned Rank
9 Soil conductivity (Sol_K) mm/h 0.0150 9
10 Available water capacity of the soil layer (Sol_Awc)
mm/mm 0.0110 10
11 Soil depth (Sol_Z) 0.0077 11
12 Groundwater ‘revap’ coefficient (Gw_Revap) 0.0070 12
13 Plant evaporation compensation factor (Epco) 0.0066 13
14 Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer for ‘revap’ to occur (Revapmin)
(mm) 0.0061 14
15 Maximum canopy index (Canmx) 0.0041 15 16 Soil albedo (Sol_Alb) 0.0000 17 17 Leaf area index for crop (Blai) 0.0000 17
Initial and Calibrated Parameter Values for Streamflow Simulation
Parameter Lower boundary Upper boundary Initial Value Calibrated Parameter value
Alpha_Bf 0 1 0.048 0.99947 Canmx 0 100 0 91.80400 Ch_K2 0.01 500 0.01 76.476000 Ch_N 0.01 0.3 0.014 0.01003 Cn2* -25 25 Soil /LULC data -17.18700 Epco 0 1 0 0.97161 Esco 0 1 0.95 0.02797
Gw_Delay 0 500 31 28.69900 Gw_Revap 0.02 0.2 0.02 0.03377
Gwqmn 0 5000 0 65.50400 Rchrg_Dp 0 1 0.05 0.00034 Revapmin 0 500 1 1.80870 Sol_Awc* -25 25 Soil data 20.47100
Sol_K* -25 25 Soil data 24.94900 Sol_Z* -25 25 Soil data 23.26100 Surlag 1 24 4 17.92800
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ArcSWAT Model Performance Statistics for Simulation of Daily Streamflow
Statistical Indicators
Daily Streamflow Calibration Period
(1999-2003) Validation Period
(2004-2005) Observed Simulated Observed Simulated
Mean(m3/s) 33.41 32.82 34.34 34.90 STDEV(m3/s) 53.61 50.84 65.56 66.09
ME (m3/s) 0.59 -0.66 MAE (m3/s) 9.72 10.84
RMSE (m3/s) 20.10 25.93 PBIAS 1.14 -1.94 RSR 0.37 0.39 NSE 0.86 0.84 R2 0.86 0.85
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ArcSWAT Model Performance Statistics for Simulation of Monthly Streamflow
Statistical Indicators
Monthly Streamflow Calibration Period
(1999-2003) Validation Period
(2004-2005) Observed Simulated Observed Simulated
Mean(mm) 49.07 48.52 50.04 51.01 STDEV(mm) 64.15 60.12 61.95 63.55
ME (mm) 0.56 -0.97 MAE (mm) 8.09 9.88
RMSE (mm) 13.52 15.07 PBIAS 1.14 -1.94 RSR 0.21 0.24 NSE 0.95 0.93 R2 0.96 0.94
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Observed and SWAT Simulated Daily and Cumulative Streamflow Hydrographs
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1/1/
1999
1/1/
2000
1/1/
2001
1/1/
2002
1/1/
2003
Date
Stre
amflo
w (m
3 /s)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Cum
ulat
ive
Stre
amflo
w
(MC
M)
Observed (daily)Simulated (daily)Observed (cumulative)Simulated (cumulative)
(a) Calibration
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1/1/
2004
4/1/
2004
7/1/
2004
10/1
/200
4
1/1/
2005
4/1/
2005
7/1/
2005
10/1
/200
5
Date
Stre
amflo
w (m
3 /s)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Cum
ulat
ive
Stre
amflo
w
(MC
M)
Observed (daily)Simulated (daily)Observed (cumulative)Simulated (cumulative)
(b) Validation
Total Streamflow (MCM)
Obs.=5217.38
Sim.=5178.41
Total Streamflow (MCM)
Obs.=2134.57
Sim.=2176.05
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Comparison of Observed and SWAT Simulated Daily Streamflows Hydrographs for Calibration Years
1999-2003
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 D t
Stre
amflo
w (m
3 /s) 0
20
40
60
80
100
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Mean RainfallObservedSimulated
(a) 1999
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 D t
Stre
amflo
w (m
3 /s) 0
20
40
60
80
100R
ainf
all (
mm
)
Mean RainfallObservedSimulated
(b) 2000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 Date
Stre
amflo
w (m
3 /s) 0
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60
80
100
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Mean RainfallObservedSimulated
(c) 2001
0
100
200
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400
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600
1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 D t
Stre
amflo
w (m
3 /s) 0
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60
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Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Mean RainfallObservedSimulated
(d) 2002
0
100
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1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 Date
Stre
amflo
w (m
3 /s) 0
20
40
60
80
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Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Mean RainfallObservedSimulated
(e) 2003
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Comparison of Observed and SWAT Simulated Daily Streamflows Hydrographs for Validation Years
2004-2005
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 Date
Stre
amflo
w (m
3 /s)
0
20
40
60
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Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Mean RainfallObservedSimulated
(a) 2004
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 Date
Stre
amflo
w (m
3 /s) 0
20
40
60
80
100
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Mean RainfallObservedSimulated
(b) 2005
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Observed and SWAT Simulated Monthly Streamflow Hydrographs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-
99
Jul-9
9
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Month
Mon
thly
Stre
amflo
w (m
m)
0
150
300
450
600
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Mean Rainfall Observed Simulated
`
(a) Calibration
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-
04
Apr-0
4
Jul-0
4
Oct
-04
Jan-
05
Apr-0
5
Jul-0
5
Oct
-05
Month
Mon
thly
Stre
amflo
w (m
m)
0
150
300
450
600
Mon
thly
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Mean RainfallObservedSimulated
(b)Validation
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Scatter Plots of Observed and Simulated Streamflow
R2 = 0.94
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 50 100 150 200 250 300Observed Monthly Streamflow
(mm)
Sim
ulat
ed M
onth
ly S
tream
flow
(m
m)
Data Points1:1 LineLinear
(b)Validation
R2 = 0.96
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 60 120 180 240 300
Sim
ulat
ed M
onth
ly S
tream
flow
(m
m)
Data Points1:1 LineLinear
(a)CalibrationR2 = 0.86
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Sim
ulat
ed D
aily
Stre
amflo
w
(m3 /s
)
Data Points1:1 LineLinear
(a)Calibration
R2 = 0.85
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0 200 400 600 800 1000Observed Daily Streamflow (m3/s)
Sim
ulat
ed D
aily
Stre
amflo
w (m
3 /s)
Data Points1:1 LineLinear
(b) Validation
Daily Monthly
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Bar Plots of Observed and Simulated Annual Streamflow
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Tot
al S
tream
flow
(MC
M) Observed
Simulated
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Conclusion
• Alpha_Bf was found to be the most sensitive parameters followed by Ch_N, Surlag, Cn2, Ch_K2, Gwqmn, Esco, Gw_delay, Sol_k, Slope, Sol_Awc, Sol_Z, Gw_revap, Epco, Revapmin, Canmax, Slsubbsn, and Biomix.
• Values of PBIAS, NSE, and R2 during model
calibration and validation at daily and monthly time steps were found to vary from -1.94 to 1.76, 0.84 to 0.95, and 0.86 to 0.96 respectively.
Based on the analysis of the results obtained in this study, the following conclusions could be drawn
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Conclusion (contd.)
• Lower values of PBIAS and RSR coupled with higher values of NSE and R2 indicated that the SWAT model simulated streamflow within accepatable level of accuracy.
• Diffrerent graphical techniques used to evaluate model
performance showed that there is a reasonably good agreement between observed and simulated daily and monthly streamflows as well as observed and simualted annual streamflow volumes for both calibration and validation period of model simulation.
• Overall, it can be concluded that the ArcSWAT model
simulated streamflow satisfactorily. Therefore, ArcSWAT model can be used for future studies on wtershed modeling in the Upper Baitarni river basin.
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THANK YOU