EVALUATING A PAYMENT FOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PROGRAM IN UGANDA Joost de Laat (PhD) World Bank July...
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EVALUATING A PAYMENT FOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PROGRAM IN UGANDA
Joost de Laat (PhD) World Bank
July 2015
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Research Question and Design What is the impact of the PES program in
Uganda? Our primary variables of interest:
Rate of deforestation Land use behaviours (tree cutting,
agricultural practices) using household surveys
We divide the forest owners into treatment and control groups randomly, and compare (intermediate) outcomes
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Outline
Project Description and Target Population Evaluation Design Description of Sample Population Evaluation activities
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Project Location and Target Population
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Project Location
2 districts: Hoima and Kibaale
8 sub-counties 140 villages, incl. 4
pilot villages Approx. 1400-2000
forest owners
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Project and Evaluation Timeline Sept 2010 – Feb 2011: Census of study region Mar 2011: Selection of sample villages Apr-May 2011: Baseline survey of 1,275 forest
owners May 2011-Jan 2012: Baseline satellite images Jul - Dec 2011: Public lotteries to draw treatment
and control villages Aug 2011 – Feb 2012: Rollout of PES program Feb - Mar 2012: Land mapping and midline survey Aug - Dec 2012: Year 1 payments Jan – Mar 2013: Endline satellite images Jul – Nov 2013: Endline survey of forest owners
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Private Forest Owners Generally Poor
1,275 baseline respondents in Hoima and Kibaale
Average household size: 7 93% of household heads are male 43% of household heads completed primary
school Average per capita weekly income: 4 USD Self-reported forest ownership: avg 5.5 ha,
median: 2 ha
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Baseline attitudes and behaviour 85% report having cut trees in past year
To sell for money To clear land for cultivation
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CSWCT PES Implementation and Participant Characteristics
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Description of PES Program Implemented by Chimpanzee Sanctuary and
Wildlife Conservation Trust (CSWCT) Aug 2011 – Feb 2012: CSWCT holds meetings
in each village to explain the program Each forest owner signs a contract with
CSWCT Compliance monitored by community
monitors Payments made to forest owners who meet
the terms of the contract
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PES Contract Details
2 components: conservation and reforestation Forest owners must agree to conserve their entire forest Optional to dedicate additional land for reforestation
Annual payments for 2 years, approx $33 per hectare
Conditions: Cannot cut medium-sized trees (10-50 DBH) Can only cut mature trees (>50 DBH) as specified,
depending on number of each species present Cutting small trees (<10 DBH) and gathering firewood
from fallen trees allowed If reforesting, plant seedlings provided by CSWCT
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Who joined the PES program? Outreach: 63% of PFOs surveyed by IPA at
baseline participated in CWSCT meetings
Take-up rate: ~ 25-40% of PFOs signed contracts
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Why did PFOs join PES program?
Those PFOs that signed up report having done so*: 39% because PES payment better than
other uses 92% because care about the environment 15% to increase tenure security 34% because would have conserved
anyways
*IPA Endline survey data 2013
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Why did other PFOs NOT join? 40% simply did not know the program
well by endline (recall: 63% outreach penetration)*
Among those who knew about the program but did not sign a contract*: 6% had disputed/multiple ownership of land 18% wanted to cut trees / payments too
low 34% found contract too complicated*IPA Endline survey data 2013
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PES results: relatively high contract compliance
CSWCT Project Monitoring Data: Year 1:
338 plots/PFOs Average 4.8 ha, median 1.4 ha Reforestation: 55% of plots have conservation
only (no reforestation); average area share for reforestation is 19%
82% received some payment (279 PFOs) and 46% (130 PFOs) received 100%
Average payment is UGX 311k, and UGX 177k when < UGX 10 mln payments
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PES results: relatively high contract compliance
CSWCT Project Monitoring Data: Year 2:
287 plots/PFOs remain Average 4.7 ha, median 1.4 ha
93% received some payment (266 plots/PFOs), 51% (147 PFOs) received 100% or 125%
Average payment is UGX 325k, and UGX 187k when < UGX 10 mln payments
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Measuring the Impact of PES(in progress: results not for citation)
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Research Design: Randomized Control Trial
RCT: compare randomly assigned treatment and control villages
For each of the 8 sub-counties, treatment and control villages
Public lottery to draw the treatment group
65 Treatment and 71 Control
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Uganda Payment for Ecosystem Services Project
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Satellite imagery
Tasked Quickbird satellite, before and after program rollout
Resolution: 2.4m Villages are treatment
or control Village-level analysis:
Use government administrative boundaries
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Remote sensing Analysis
Remote sensing analysis led by Prof. Eric Lambin and Nancy Thomas at Stanford University
Classify land by forestation status (object-based classification)
Calibrate image area using sampled ground measurements by local forestry partner, NAHI
Calculate biomass, incorporating ground measurements of species type, tree diameter, etc.
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From pixels to polygons
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Ground-based forest surveys
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Satellite image Tree Cover Classification
Results: Tree Cover Classification
Tree cover map shows 3 classes: tree cover, other vegetation, and non-vegetated areas
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Results: Tree Cover Changes
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Time 1 (June 6, 2011) Time 2 (February 23, 2013)
Tree Cover Change Map (draft)
Purple = Tree Loss
Green = Tree Gain
Time 1 (June 6, 2011) Time 2 (February 23, 2013)
Tree Cover Change Map (draft)
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PES reduced self-reported tree cutting and clearing
Example: self-reported tree cutting reduced by 12.6 percentage points in treatment villages relative to control villages, where 46.7% report tree cutting
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PES PFOs reduce community access to lands
Example: PFOs report reducing access by other people to collect firewood by 16.2 percentage points in treatment villages relative to control villages, where 42.1% report allowing others
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Satellite measures detect substantial forest loss Baseline and endline forest coverages
across the 136 villages:
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PES seems to result in a change in distribution of forest losses/gains
Note: -0.5 = 5%, -.1 = 10%, etc.
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Measured impact of reduced deforestation consistent but statistically insignificant
Example: Column 1: the rate of deforestation is 2.59 percentage points lower in treatment villages relative to control (1.51 pp per annum), a reduction of 27% relative to control villages
Note: Column 1 and 2 are weighted regressions using the % of land w/o cloud coverage
• Compare with ~34% take-up rate; would imply a treatment on the treated reduction of 27/0.34 = 79%
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Can we get more precise estimates using PFO level forest change?
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Mapping an individual’s land
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PFO level analysis
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Key Findings on Program Impact Very high rates of forest loss in absence of the
program Measures of self-reported reduction in tree cutting as
a result of PES consistent with CSWCT monitoring data
Measures of self-reported land use point to PES increasing private use of forests
Satellite images detect a village level effect size for PES reduced deforestation that is consistent with PES take-up rates and self-reported changes in behavior. Point estimate of effect not significant, however, but low statistical power
Annual cost of payment for all 136 villages: ~ USD 70k for 20,000 ha of forests
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Thank you! (also from the field)