Eva Cudlínová, Jan Vávra, Miloslav LapkaFaculty of Economics, University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice Czech Republic

Green economy in Europe: A real Green New Deal or just a New Green Dream?

November 12, 2008 – the leaders of the G20 countries gather in Washington for a special summit on the global financial crisis

Gary Gardner and Michael Renner, senior researchers with the environmental research organization Worldwatch Institute, issued a detailed proposal "Global Green Deal."

"The challenge is not merely to kick start the global economy, but to do so in a way that creates jobs and stabilizes climate, increases food output using less water and pesticides, and generates prosperity with greater equality of incomes," write Gardner and Renner.

Green New Deal (GND)

Green New Deal – a deliberate echo of the energizing vision of President Franklin Roosevelt during the Great Depression of the 1930s (based on J. M. Keynes’ idea – government supports demand).

Green growth concept represents a new paradigm to rethink the existing model of socio-economic development that promotes economic development with social stability while reducing environmental degradation and preserving natural resources

The term green economy was

first coined in Blueprint for a

Green Ecconomy,1989 Pearce

at al principaly connected

with economy and

sustainable development

Green New Deal = Green economy and Green growth based on Green technology and investment

Sustainable development

Mistrust of the entire notion of a green economy, evidenced by terms like GREEN WASHING and the decline in belief regarding climate change.

People’s Summit Rio+20, which concluded that there was a need to completely rewrite the green economy movement towards the original goals of an Earth Summit

IT REPRESENTS A FRIENDLIER FACE OF A GLOBAL CAPITALIST ECONOMY THAT HAS EXPLOITED THEY AND THEIR NATURAL RESOURCES FOR DECADES.

CRITIQUE OF GREEN ECONOMY

From the perspective of the planet’s poorest and the organizations working with them, the green economy doesn’t represent opportunity.

Research question and methods

How is the concept of Green growth applied in EU and how can it be measured?

MethodsStatistical analysis of selected national socio-economic and environmental indicators.

• Based on definitions and political documents

• Inspired by existing set of indicators (e.g. OECD, Global Green Economy Index)

Limitations caused by data availability and comparability• Different priorities of states• Definition of resource efficiency

Example of existing Green growth or Green economy indicators

As part of its Green Growth Strategy, the OECD has developed a conceptual framework and indicators that help governments monitor progress towards green growth.

Green economy = Green pathway into 21st century

Characteristics Results (solving of the problems)

• Green technology • Renewable energy• Green jobs• Green investments

Green growth

Economic growthClimate changesPoverty green jobs

Is Green growth really green? Our approachOur measurement of Green growth is based on Green economy

Green economy can refer to sectors (e.g. energy), topics (e.g. pollution), principles (e.g. polluter pays) or policies (e.g. economic instruments).

We selected some of direct and indirect parameters that express the main characteristics and results of green economy.

Selected indicators

Explanation of indicators

• Economic growth – one of ultimate goals of Green growth

• New jobs – creation of new Green jobs (unemployment is more general indicator)

• Productivity of economy – partial result of Green investments and Green tecnology – main characteristics of Green economy

• Green investment and Green technology – characteristic of Green economy

• Renewable energy – characteristics of Green economy

• Production of CO2 represents the results of Green economy in terms of climate changes (result of Green investments and Green technology)

Measured indicators

• GDP per capita PPP in Euro (2007, 2013)

• Unemployment in % of labour force (2007, 2013)

• Resource productivity in Euro per kg of raw material (2007, 2012)

• Gross domestic expenditure on R&D in % of GDP (2007, 2011)

• Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption in % (2007, 2012)

• Carbon footprint in tons of CO2 per capita (2007, 2011)

EU28 countriesTwo periods: pre-economic downturn (2007) and recent (2011-13).Source: Eurostat

Changes since 2007

GDP_ch Unempl_ch Prod_ch R&D_ch Renew_ch Carb_ch

GDP_ch 1Unempl_ch -0,47* 1Product_ch -0,61** 0,52** 1R&Dexp_ch -0,04 -0,17 -0,04 1Renew_ch 0,13 0,19 -0,14 0,20 1Carbon_ch 0,68** -0,33 -0,57** 0,26 0,20 1

Factor loadings

Component 1: Economy

Component 2: Innovation

GDP ch. 0,856

Unemployment ch.

-0,746

Productivity change

-0,834

Carbon footprint change

0,761 0,388

R&D exp. change

0,636

Renewables change

0,842

Eigenvalue 2,570 1,328

% of variance 42,83 22,14

PCA, rotation Varimax, KMO=0,578, Bartlett‘s X2=487,260, df=15, p=0,000.

Major findings

Major trends• Overall increase: renewable energy sources• Most often increase: unemployment, productivity, R&D expenditures;

decrease of carbon footprint• Both trends: GDP

Changes 2007-2012• GDP↑ CO2↑ Unemployment↓ Productivity ↓

• R&Dexp ↑ Renewables↑ CO2↑

Countries’ classification• Economic (Germany, Poland, Romania X Greece, Spain, Ireland)• Innovation (Estonia, Slovenia, Denmark X Luxembourg, UK)

– Environmental aspect is problematic

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Discussion, problems and further research

General questions• Is “growth” part of Green growth overriding its environmental and social

wannabe aspects?• Was Green growth concept really applied?• Is it just due to short timeframe?

Problems• Environmental aspect (CO2) in innovation axis• More precise indicators needed

Future research possibilities• Longer timframe• New indicators (quantity and quality – e.g. eco-innovation as part of R&D

expenditure, Green jobs)• Geographical analysis x time series• Detailed portraits of individual countries (declarations, politics, economy,

environment)

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Thank you for your attention!

Eva Cudlínová evacu@centrum.cz Jan Vávra jan.vavra@prirodou.cz Miloslav Lapka miloslav@centrum.cz

Faculty of EconomicsUniversity of South Bohemia in České BudějoviceCzech Republichttp://international.ef.jcu.cz/