European Tax Free Consumption - Fondazione Altagamma BLUE - LIGHT... · 2016-10-20 · 8% of total...
Transcript of European Tax Free Consumption - Fondazione Altagamma BLUE - LIGHT... · 2016-10-20 · 8% of total...
European Tax Free Consumption Milan, 20 October 2016
Tax Free Shopping European and APAC Markets Country trends and weights
YTD SEP 16 - EUROPE and APAC
3
Source: Global Blue Data
Tax Free Spending performance
• After stellar growth supported by strong macro drivers in 2015, relative performance is negative due to a perfect storm across all main drivers (i.e. Biometric visas, China slowdown, terror attacks, FX)
• UK delivering solid 2 digits growth supported by good mix of macro drivers (FX), long term activities which are supporting Globe shoppers travel journey (i.e. Extend Chinese Visa Validity)
• APAC (including Japan, Korea and Singapore) is performing +4% in terms of Tax Free Spending Year-to-Date. The growth is supported by a strong increase in number of travelers across all destinations, yet arriving with lower amount of cash to spend
UK (GBP)
Italy
France
Germany
32%
-23%
-21%
-8%
Jan-Sep 16 SIS dev vs PY
Sep 16 SIS dev vs PY Countries
9%
-21%
-21%
-11%
Europe -8% -12%
4
L12M ENDING SEPTEMBER 2016 - EUROPE
Source: Global Blue Market Estimation
Tax Free Shopping Nationalities Top nationalities weight and performance
YTD SEP 16 - WORLDWIDE
6
• Chinese represent the first nationality both in Europe (28% of total) and in APAC (55% of total). Their trend in Europe has been strongly affected by all negative elements previously mentioned
• Russians keep on declining for the third year in a row and they are now the 4th nationality with 8% of total market
• Tax Free Spend of the Middle Eastern is flat in
Europe thanks to GBP favorable exchange rate They are representing nationality n.1 in UK market
Middle East: Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE Source: Global Blue Data (Jan – Sep 16)
Nationalities Overview
100% -12% Total
28% -22% China
12% 0% Middle East
8% -19% Russian Fed
6% -2% USA
3% -11% Hong Kong
3% -14% Thailand
3% -12% Switzerland
3% -3% Korea
2% -17% Taiwan
% on Tot Dev vs PY Nationalities
Europe
2% 8% Japan
30% -6% Others
100% 4% Total
55% 6% China
9% -1% Indonesia
4% -10% Taiwan
3% -25% Hong Kong
3% 44% Japan
3% 6% Korea
2% Malaysia
2% -6% Thailand
2% 22% Viet Nam
% on Tot Dev vs PY Nationalities
APAC
2% 6% Philippines
15% 7% Others
-4%
APAC: Japan ,Korea, Singapore.
Key drivers of European Performances
SEP 16 - EUROPE
8
Source: Global Blue Data
Top Line Perfomance
9
% difference in SiS (Euro) vs YA
European performances has been quite negative this year due to a combination of many effects: • Strong base of 2015 (due to favourable exchange rates
last year) • Softening of exchange rates • Biometric Visas • Safety concerns (terror attack, security issue in France) The elements above led to a decrease in both volumes (n. of transactions) and in capacity of spending (avg spend).
Sales in Store progression
Europe -12%
No. of Tax Free Forms
- 5% - 8%
Av. spend per transaction
- 5%
Europe South - 10%
- 21%
Europe North
- 20%
- 5%
France
+ 6%
- 1 %
- 5%
Europe Central - 19% - 12% - 8%
0%
Unless mentioned differently the data refers to Like for Like geographical comparison (Excluding countries with less than 24 months – Ireland)
YTD SEP 16 - EUROPE Highlights
10
QUARTERLY INDEX - EUROPE Historical development by quarter of Tax Free Spending
Source: Global Blue Data
11
Euro appreciation against key globe shoppers currencies (especially CNY and USD) drove decrease in n. of transactions and average spend.
FX TRENDS
Source: Global Blue Data
USD/Euro:+23%
CNY/Euro:+23%
USD/Euro:-1%
CNY/Euro:-6%
YTD SEP 16 - FOCUS ON CHINESE
12
100%
172%
206% 214%
261% 249%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 C
hine
se G
loba
l sho
pper
s S
ales
In S
tore
s (E
uro)
Chinese Sales in Store (Eur) (% progression vs YA)
Over the last four years, Chinese Tax Free Spending grew consistently supported by positive macro-economic drivers including GDP, new air connections and positive FX influences.
+57% CAGR on Chinese Sales In Store over the last four years (ending in 2015). Including 2016, CAGR is back to norm +27%
Chinese globe shoppers as key driver
Source: Global Blue Data
YTD SEP 16 - FOCUS ON CHINESE
13
• Slow down in local economy and drop in consumer confidence • Government willingness to strengthen local consumption (positive incentive, checks at customs arrivals) • Biometric visa and terror attacks as travel restrainer to Europe
Slow down of Chinese demand
Soft € vs ¥
Shanghai stock market
Biometric visa
Terror attacks
Checks at custom
Source: Global Blue Data
YTD SEP 16 – CHINESE GLOBE SHOPPER
14
Official perspective of expected passengers:
2015 | 120 million outbound passengers
2020 | 500 million outbound passengers
• More and more Chinese globe shoppers feel comfortable travelling by themselves in Europe, experiencing history and entertainment. They are balancing spend preferences between luxury goods and entertainment
• Tour groups are growing sales bookings based on a large amount of low cost tours focused on travellers originating in tier II & III cities
• Millennials are becoming more savvy and are looking for brands which they can relate to from an attitude and mindset perspective
Tour Group traveller
60%
Frequent Individual
Traveller (FIT)
40%
Value traveller
(tier II & III) Experiential Millennials
HNWI (High Net
Worth Individuals)
Source: China National Tourism Administration (CNTA)
New globe shopper profiles and expectations
15
• All categories are suffering due to a decrease of the average spending
• Last year, Currency volatility and lag in pricing adjustment created a positive trend supporting category growth especially categories with high value transactions
• Watches & Jewelry, on top of the above, is suffering to its exposure to Chinese consumers who remain concern by checks at arrivals
YTD SEPTEMBER 2016- EUROPE Categories performance
Focus on Countries
17
• YTD Tax Free Spending in Italy is decreasing 11% vs last year
• After difficult 4 to 6 months Italy performance is back to single digit decline
• Chinese, still representing the first nationality, are decreasing more than rest of the market
• Outlet segment for the first time in its history presents a negative trend (-6% vs last year) but consolidates his weight in the market (16% of total) Source: Global Blue Data (Jan – Sep 16)
Middle East: Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE
YTD SEP 16 - ITALY Italian Market Deep Dive
100% -11% Total
28% -23% China
12% -11% Russian Fed
9% -1% USA
6% 1% Middle East
6% 1% Korea
39% -5% Others
% on Tot Dev vs PY Nationalities
Italy - 11% Sales in Store
YTD SEP 16 - FRANCE, GERMANY and UK
18
• Chinese still the first nationality despite they are suffering in France and Germany • Chinese average spending is decreasing in most of the European Countries
Source: Global Blue Data (Jan – Sep 16) Middle East: Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE
Top 5 Globe shopper Nationality comparison
100% 9% Total
30% 16% Middle East
24% 9% China
5% 28% USA
4% 14% Hong Kong
3% 10% Thailand
34% 1% Others
% on Tot Dev vs PY Nationalities
UK +9% Sales in Store
100% -21% Total
38% -30% China
12% -7% Middle East
9% -28% Russian Fed
7% -9% Switzerland
3% -20% Taiwan
31% -10% Others
% on Tot Dev vs PY Nationalities
Germany - 21% Sales in Store
100% -21% Total
23% -37% China
10% -13% USA
7% -17% Middle East
6% -24% Russian Fed
5% -9% Hong Kong
49% -14% Others
% on Tot Dev vs PY Nationalities
France - 21% Sales in Store
Bain & Company Global Blue Analysis
Focus
20
Source: Global Blue data | *Note: 2016 is October 2015-September 2016, 2015 is October 2014-September 2015, 2014 is October 2013-September 2014, 2013 is October 2012-September 2013, 2012 is October 2011-September 2012
Business Outlook
NEXT 12 MONTHS OUTLOOK Tax Free outlook
Transaction drivers
Average spend drivers
Air arrivals and capacity
Consumer confidence
Legal limitations
Europe
APAC
FX
Traveller mix
GDP
SiS Consensus
Slight Increase
Flat
Flat
Slight Decrease
Flat
Slight Decrease
Increase
Flat
Flat
Flat
Slight Decrease
+2% / +4% +1% / +3%
Slight Decrease
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