European security

Conflicts in and around Europe

Dr. Arūnas Molis24 April, 2014

Tallinn

Military threats: main characteristics

Potential or direct, internal or external but always existential

Intensity is decided by capabilities of potential aggressor

Geography matters – neighboring states threatens more than distanced

History of bilateral relations is important but necessarily determining

Armed conflicts: global tendencies

Global peace index 2013

http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=d3M3tMfTf98

Major tendencies in the world

•Interstate wars have declined in number while intrastate wars have increased in number.

•New wars are characterized by state failure and a social transformation driven by globalization and liberal economic forces.

•Ethnic and religious conflict are more characteristic of new wars than political ideology.

•Civilian casualties and forced human displacement are dramatically increasing as a proportion of all casualties in conflict.

Post Soviet space

Conflict in Crimea

http://www.thedailybeast.com/videos/2014/03/04/on-the-ground-in-ukraine.html

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/03/nato-suspend-co-operation-with-russia-201435183125117503.html

Impact of Crimea conflict on the energy security

Who will win the race? (this time – energy, not arms)

• New route for South Stream (shallower, shorter, cheaper)

• The EU terminated negotiations on South Stream

• Black Sea off-shore resources may be redistributed

• Stalled production of shale gas in Ukraine

• Export of US shale gas to Europe – energy geopolitics

• ExxonMobil doubts regarding cooperation with Rosneft (shale gas techn.)

Is Russia reconstituting an empire?

Building oil and gas cartels

Supplying camp followers with gas, oil and electricity at reduced prices

Cultivating the system of virtual security commitments (CSTO)

Strengthening military presence in Central Asia, South Caucasus, Eastern Europe

Russian military expenditure (as percent of GDP, in USD billions)

Year Military expenditure as % of GDP

In USD billions

1998 3.3 13.6

1999 3.4 14

2000 3.7 19.1

2001 4.1 21.2

2002 4.4 23.6

2003 4.3 25.1

2004 3.8 26.1

2005 3.7 28.5

2006 3.6 31.2

2007 3.5 35.4

2008 3.5 58.6

2009 4.3 53.3

2010 3.9 58.7

2011 DNA 71.9

Insights on what is happening.. “The new times are already here. The interlude between

the cold wars (1989–2014) is over. Russia has assured us it wants to restore her imperial glory. The interlude was just an anomaly, a defeat, the results of which need to be fixed”

“we are facing a new reality, and a new kind of confrontation between Russia and the West. It is no longer about the clash of ideologies or the struggle between systems and camps, as was the case during the Cold War”

“Putin is trying to assert his right to interpret the global rules of the game in such a way that Russia may violate them with impunity. The Cold War, by contrast, was marked by both sides’ adherence to the rules”

“Putin isn’t just attempting to dismantle the post-Cold War settlement; he is undermining the remaining elements of the post-Yalta order”.

• “Ukraine crisis is proof that the Kremlin has begun to experiment with the Putin’s Preventive Doctrine, which seeks to ensure the survival of autocratic rule by restoring militarism and a fortress mentality in Russia”

• “By invoking the concepts of the “Russian World” and “Russians as a divided nation,” Putin has begun to tinker with the explosive revanchist ideas that Europe attempted to lay to rest in the 20th century”

• “Putin could mean anything, or he could mean nothing in particular. He wants you to keep guessing”.

• “Russia will not necessarily be invading other countries and annexing their territory. Rather, the Kremlin is aiming at creating a perpetual air of suspense and uncertainty”.

On response..• “When it comes to explaining Russia’s Ukrainian

adventurism, the West has attempted to hide behind a wall of myths and hope its problems will just go away”

• "When it comes to pushing back Russia's actions in the former Soviet Union, there is no strategy and there is no appetite.“

• “The Russian ruling elite has used globalization to corrupt the West, and it will find the ways to use the laundry machine it has created (with the assistance of many Western helpers) to circumvent the “financial containment.”

• “Every morning, I wake up wondering if this is the day that Eastern-Europe is sold, again”

Latest exercise close to BS bordershttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxX8SuUPC88

RF-BLR exercise “Zapad 2013” Officially 12,000 Russian troops and 10,400 Belarusian troops

participated. Real number of troops was closer to 70,000.

Took part in both Russian and Belarusian territory, including the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, as well as a location near the RF border with Norway.

Unlike during Zapad 2009, the Zapad 2013 exercise did not simulate a nuclear strike on Warsaw. The exercise was intended:

to test the efficacy of Russia’s military modernization efforts in its Western Military District

To test Russia’s ability to rapidly reinforce the Western Military District from less vital military districts (obilization of 20,000 troops)

The Zapad exercises highlighted the growing military and political partnership between Russia and Belarus

NATO was the unstated adversary in the Zapad 2013

Increasing air space violations in the BS

Is the military threat in the BSR real?

“NATO is finally drawing up plans for the defence of the Baltic countries”

“anything that might happen to the Baltic states or Poland, also happens to the other Baltic Sea countries, the EU and NATO”

“region is peaceful with relatively low military conflict potential”

“NATO military exercises planned as Baltic States hit panic button”

“Security of the Baltic States poses a problem first of all because the Baltic region will always remain the one of strategic importance to Russia”

And finally, then impossible becomes a reality..

The poll was conducted from 9 p.m., Feb. 24 to 11:59 p.m., Feb. 27. Russian forces controlled the Sevastopol airport on Feb. 28

only 14 percent of the 905 interviewed scholars answered affirmatively on the eve of the intervention

Rise of Extremist Terrorism

The Twin Towers 2001 Istmabul 2003 Madrid 2004 London 2005 British Airports 2006 Moscow, Minsk, Oslo, Liege and others in 2011

The war in Afghanistan The war in Iraq

Conflicts in former Yugoslavia

Africa

Middle East

Afghanistan case: time frame

XIX century: Tsarist Russia versus UK

1955 – 1978 Cold war – USSR military aid to Afghanistan.

1978 Saur revolution

1978–present – Afghan civil war

1979 Soviet intervention

1989 Soviet withdrawal

1996-2001 Taliban’s rule

2001 - Operation Enduring Freedom

Questions?