European Perspective: Prospects for Sustained Ocean Observations in Germany and Europe

European Perspective:European Perspective:

Prospects for Prospects for Sustained Ocean Sustained Ocean

Observations Observations in Germany and Europein Germany and Europe

Martin Visbeck

Leibniz-Institute for Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel, Germany

RoadmapRoadmap

• Science Driven ProgramsScience Driven Programs

• NORDATLANTIKNORDATLANTIKGerman ProgramGerman Program

• EU 7th framework EU 7th framework THORTHOR

• Infrastructure opportunitiesInfrastructure opportunities• EU 7th framework EU 7th framework

EU-AGRO EU-AGRO • EuroSITESEuroSITES• ESONET ESONET

Ocean Observing Ocean Observing SystemsSystems

Why do WE need a large scale ocean Why do WE need a large scale ocean observing system?observing system?

• Improve our understanding of the time varying large scale ocean circulation.

• Provide real time estimates of the ocean state for a large range of applications.

• Initial condition for interannual - decadal predictions (including the ecosystem).

• Improve the performance of ocean and climate models (model - data comparison).

Ocean Observing SystemsOcean Observing Systems

GoalGoal• Observe the ocean in a cost effective

manner

ObjectivesObjectives• Versatile platforms • Novel Sensors• Improved Communication• System integration and optimization

International networks of sustained International networks of sustained Global Ocean ObservationsGlobal Ocean Observations

Global Environmental Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) partof GEO

Global Monitoring for Environment and Security

(GMES) European Contribution to GEOSS

Synthesis / ProductsSynthesis / Products

Strengthen by Strengthen by international international cooperation:cooperation:

• Data integrationData integration

• Model PerformanceModel Performance

• Synthesis systemSynthesis system

• Stakeholder involvementStakeholder involvement

in order to fully accomplish in order to fully accomplish the benefits for societythe benefits for society

Observations Models

Synthesis

AssessmentsPredictions

PRODUCTS

Drijfhout & Hazeleger

Predictability of the THC

Control simulations

Perturbed runs

Source: Mat Collins, CGAM

Sensitivity of climate change predictions to oceanic initial conditions

Source: Mojib Latif, MPI Scenarios forced with 1% CO2 p.a.

German CLIVAR: NORDATLANTIK

Subpolar North Atlantic

Subtropical Atlantic

Atlantic Synthesis

The North Atlantic as part of the Earth The North Atlantic as part of the Earth System: System:

The path from understanding the system The path from understanding the system to regional impact analyses.to regional impact analyses.

TACE

Coordinator: D. Stammer ZMAW

NORDATLANTIK goals:

•Quantitative Quantitative understanding of key processesunderstanding of key processes, including freshwater , including freshwater budget of North Atlantic and water mass formation rates. budget of North Atlantic and water mass formation rates. •Identification of vital observing elementsIdentification of vital observing elements in key regions than can form in key regions than can form the the back bone of a North Atlantic observing and diagnosis systemback bone of a North Atlantic observing and diagnosis system. . •Development of approaches suitable to detect Development of approaches suitable to detect seasonal to decadal seasonal to decadal climate changesclimate changes, including the improvement of coupled models and , including the improvement of coupled models and the use of the consortium’s observations for initialization. the use of the consortium’s observations for initialization. •Estimation of impacts of large-scale Atlantic circulation changes on Estimation of impacts of large-scale Atlantic circulation changes on European continental shelf regions, on the uptake of COEuropean continental shelf regions, on the uptake of CO22 as well as as well as regional sea level changes in the Atlantic. regional sea level changes in the Atlantic. •Estimation of impact of modified thermohaline circulation on primary Estimation of impact of modified thermohaline circulation on primary production and the fish stock of the Atlantic through numerical production and the fish stock of the Atlantic through numerical scenario run. scenario run. •Construction of pilot diagnosis and evaluation system. Construction of pilot diagnosis and evaluation system.

RoadmapRoadmap






Thermohaline Thermohaline Overturning Overturning

– at Risk? (THOR)– at Risk? (THOR)

Proposal to EU-FP7

The Earth System and Climate: Functioning and abrupt changes

ENV.2007.1.1.1.1. Stability of the Thermohaline Circulation

Coordinator: D. Quadfasel ZMAW

Thermohaline Thermohaline Overturning Overturning

– at Risk? (THOR)– at Risk? (THOR)• 1.1. Quantifying THC variabilityQuantifying THC variability on time scales up to on time scales up to

centennial and identification of the key processes and feed-centennial and identification of the key processes and feed-back mechanisms responsible for this variability. back mechanisms responsible for this variability.

• 2.2. Quantifying Quantifying ocean state uncertaintiesocean state uncertainties derived from derived from combined model and data analysis.combined model and data analysis.

• 3.3. Quantifying Atlantic THC flux variability on time Quantifying Atlantic THC flux variability on time scales up to decadal, providing benchmarks for model tests.scales up to decadal, providing benchmarks for model tests.

• 4.4. Quantifying the strength of the Nordic sources to the Quantifying the strength of the Nordic sources to the deep limb of the THC.deep limb of the THC.

• 5.5. Quantifying the Quantifying the skill of coupled forecast modelsskill of coupled forecast models on on decadal time scalesdecadal time scales

• 6.6. Forecasting the THC variability on decadal time Forecasting the THC variability on decadal time scalesscales..

• 7.7. Near real time data transfer from deep sea mooringsNear real time data transfer from deep sea moorings• 8.8. Assimilation techniques for coupled ocean-Assimilation techniques for coupled ocean-

atmosphere general circulation modelsatmosphere general circulation models..

RoadmapRoadmap






EU-ARGOEU-ARGOEuropean Strategy Forum on

Research Infrastructures (ESFRI)

Preparatory Phase proposal.

Overall objectivePrepare European Argo contribution for sustained operation(By 2010 maintain 800 floats - presently operating 471)

Overall budget €4.6 million over 30 months

TimetableApril 2007 - Proposal submittedEnd July - Funding decisionNov-Dec - First funds available

Coordinator: P.Y. Le Traon IFREMER

EU-ARGOEU-ARGO

EU-ARGOEU-ARGO

Specific objectives• Get European components of data processing operating fully• Clear data backlog• Expand participation in Argo activities Present countries France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, UK New countries in Euro-Argo Greece, Portugal, Poland, Bulgaria • Establish European User group• Improve technology (Sensor trials, monitor tech performance of all European floats)• Perform impact studies• Develop educational outreach activities

Prepare to obtain extra float funding through GMES(Global Monitoring for Environment and Security)

RoadmapRoadmap






EuroSITESEuroSITES

• Integration and Integration and enhancement of key enhancement of key existing European existing European deep-ocean deep-ocean ObservatoriesObservatories

• Atlantic Sites:Atlantic Sites:Station M Station M CISCISPAPPAPESTOCESTOCTENATSOTENATSO

Coordinator: R. Lampitt NOC, UK

European Multidisciplinary Seafloor Observation (EMSO)

EMSO deep sea-floor observatories are deployed on specific sites off the European coastline to allow continuous monitoring for environment and security. They will be organized in a unique management structure at European level (and part of a global endeavor), for long-term monitoring of environmental processes related to ecosystem life and evolution, global changes and geo-hazards.

EMSO will be a key component of the Global Monitoring and Environment System (GMES) and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS).

SFB Climate-Biogeochemical SFB Climate-Biogeochemical Interactions Interactions

in the Tropical Oceansin the Tropical Oceans

1. How does subsurface dissolved oxygen in the tropical ocean respond to variability in ocean circulation and ventilation?

2. What are the sensitivities and feedbacks linking low or variable oxygen levels and key nutrient source sink mechanisms? In the benthos? In the water column?

3. What are the magnitudes and time scales of past, present and likely future variations in oceanic oxygen and nutrient levels? On the regional scale? On the global scale?

T,S,v N,P,Fe

O2

t

Coordinator: D. Wallace IFM-GEOMAR

TACE: Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment

Tropical Atlantic ObservationsTropical Atlantic Observations

Coordinator: P. Brandt IFM-GEOMAR & B. Johns RSMAS

German Excellence InitiativeGerman Excellence Initiative

“… excellence in marine science at CAU & partners …”

““The Future The Future Ocean”Ocean”

• understand futureocean change

• explore new marine resources

• cope with marine hazards

Network StrategyNetwork Strategy

“… new initiatives on FUTURE OCEAN issues …”

•Expand existing multidisciplinary Expand existing multidisciplinary scientific expertise (14 new junior scientific expertise (14 new junior research groups).research groups).

Strengthen Kiel marine research by Strengthen Kiel marine research by enhancing the enabling infrastructure.enhancing the enabling infrastructure.

Bridge gaps between Bridge gaps between education, science and education, science and

application.application.

New Programs in New Programs in Europe and GermanyEurope and Germany

Science ProgramsScience Programs Infrastructure ProgramsInfrastructure Programs

EU - FP7EU - FP7collaborationscollaborations

GermanyGermanyKielKiel

THORTHOR

(and 2 other (and 2 other prop.)prop.)

EU-ARGOEU-ARGO

EuroSITESEuroSITES

EMSO/ESONETEMSO/ESONET

NORDATLANTIKNORDATLANTIK

““The Future Ocean”The Future Ocean”

““Tropical SFB”Tropical SFB”

There is a continued strong interest to work with the There is a continued strong interest to work with the international and in particular the US research and international and in particular the US research and operational communities on all the aspects of operational communities on all the aspects of “Climate and Ocean Observations”“Climate and Ocean Observations”

German-ARGOGerman-ARGO

European Perspective: Prospects for Sustained Ocean Observations in Germany and Europe

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