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1 European Environment Agency
Main EEA activities Scenario and Forward studies
GROUP
Teresa Ribeiro Anita Pirc-Velkavrh
(Axel Volkery) (AnneKathrin Jaeger)
EIONET seminar:
Forward-looking information in environment assessment
19-20 May 2008
2 European Environment Agency
PRESENTATION
• I – Forward-Looking Assessments
• II – Improving the Information System (IS)
• III - Cooperation & Capacity Building
3 European Environment Agency
PAST ACTIVITIES:
• SOER ( Overview) European Environment Outlook
2005
• PRELUDE (5 land-use scenarios)
• Glimpses (analysing uncertainties)
4 European Environment Agency
SOER - EUROPEAN ENIRONMENT OUTLOOK 2005
• Key socio-economic developments • Demography• Macro-economy• Technological and sectoral developments• Energy and transport• Agriculture• Waste and material flows• Consumption patterns
• Outlooks developed for various environmental themes• GHG emissions and climate change• Air quality• Water stress• Water quality
5 European Environment Agency
Analytical Framework of the EEO 2005
• Geographical coverage - EU 25• Baseline projections (2020-2030), • Alternative projections and variants (up to 2100)• Interactions between sectoral developments and
environmental issues• Distance to target analyses• Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers
6 European Environment Agency
PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe
Project objectives and outputs
To explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment (2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland)
To provide a context against which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged.
Participatory development of qualitative / quantitative scenarios for Europe and regional case studies
7 European Environment Agency
PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe
New approaches to scenario communication:video/audio-animated presentation tool Broad communication brochure with DVDInteractive mind-stretcherVideo presentation for Green week
Technical report and several conference papers to document analysis and experiences with the participatory development
• PRELUDE 2 Action
8 European Environment Agency
•
9 European Environment Agency
Land use type ALand use type BLand use type C
Current Situation
PRELUDE -Land use change scenarios
Where?...
Future What Changes? ...
Environmental impacts?
...
10 European Environment Agency
Scenario development
Quant. Scen.
Qual. Scen
Stakeholders
EEA
Data &Modelling Group(s)
European Land Use Change Scenarios
The main driving forces behind land use change are climate change, population growth and technical and economic development, particularly of the transport and agriculture sectors.
The environmental impacts of land use change are complex, and may affect air quality, water quality and quantity, landscape structure and biodiversity …
Experts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2010 2020
☺ Floods
☺ Biodiv.…
‘Story-and-Simulation‘
11 European Environment Agency
A Prelude to Europe’s Future
5 contrasting yet plausible environ-mental scenarios of future changes in land use and European landscape
• Europe of Contrast – Great Escape• Europe of Harmony – Evolved Society• Europe of Structure – Clustered Networks• Europe of Innovation – Lettuce Surprise U• Europe of Cohesion – Big Crisis
12 European Environment Agency
DUET change
13 European Environment Agency
Belgrade report findings
uncertainties
complex and dynamic environment
drivers of future change
PROJECTIONS
SCENARIOS
what if...
What are the prospects for the environment in the pan-European region?
14 European Environment Agency
Environmental changes are commonly driven by wider socio-economic trends,
such as :• Political stability
• Globalisation and trade
• Macro-economic trends
• Demographic patterns
• Consumptions patterns
• Land and natural
resources use
• Global environmental
governance
Pan-European environmental outlooks*:
•Air quality
•Climate change
•Biodiversity loss
•Waste and material use
*based on the key findings of the Belgrade report
Future related uncertainties
15 European Environment Agency
Example from the report: Outlook – Biodiversity loss
Impact of climate change on number of plant species, 2100
“The global target of halting biodiversity loss by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without considerable additional effort.”
16 European Environment Agency
Example from the report: Driver: Demographic patterns
0
250
500
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
Million people
Population projections, 2000 to 2030 (Source: UN Population Division, 2006)
WCE
EECCA
SEE
Population growth
Uncertainties (e.g. migration)
Migration from Turkey to EU, Erzan et al., 2007
Scenarios e.g:
17 European Environment Agency
• Total waste generation is expected to continue to grow
Waste growth Energy
Transport: passenger and freight
To understand better impacts on environment resulting from consumption and to more efficiently influence driving forces
Key future concerns
Example from the report:Driver: Consumption patterns
Source: IEA
Source: IEA/WBSCD
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
Packaging
Waste oils & used tyres
Glass
Paper & cardboard
Construction & demolition
Industrial
Municipal
GDP
Expected change between 2000 and 2020 (in %)EU-CC2 New-10 EU-15
• Energy consumption is expected to increase.
• Volumes of transport are expected to grow in unsustainable manner
18 European Environment Agency
• Development of the future EU policy in energy, transport
• Future development of policies in EECCA region
• Prospect of technology breakthroughs
• Global politics and unexpected events
• Changes of consumption patterns
Uncertainties
IEA energy scenarios WBCSD transport scenariosNational energy scenarios in EECCA and SEE region The future European food chain: Sweden
Scenarios, e.g.:
Driver: Consumption patterns
19 European Environment Agency
PAST ACTIVITIES
• Review of available scenario studies in pan-European region
• Review of relevant available models at EU level
• Review of available outlook indicators from different sources
• Developing outlook indicators for EU/EEA
• Gathering, analysing and assessing available outlooks indicators ( Belgrade report, IMS(F), catalogue).
20 European Environment Agency
AN OVERVIEW OF SCENARIO STUDIES (2007)Scope of the overview
• Pan-European relevance• More than 100 studies
reviewed • internet, contacts with experts,• English and Russian studies, all SEE
languages
• Main issues covered were economy, energy, political scenarios
• Russia, Bulgaria, Turkey, SEE regional level
Review is available on Envirowindows scenario website
Information gaps in scenario studies
• Environmental impacts: water quality, biodiversity, impacts of climate change, waste
• Transport, fisheries, technology, demography, land and natural resources use, env. integration with socio-economic issues
• Problems in methodological soundness, reliability, lack of direct relevance to policy issues
21 European Environment Agency
• 20 modelling tools are described in standardised model
descriptions out of a list of 130 models
• based on public available information - review by
experts
• Overview of 35 participative models
REVIEW OF MODELLING TOOLS
22 European Environment Agency
23 European Environment Agency
Towards an online model inventory
Transfer of templates into an online model inventory:• One-off review activities do not capture dynamic
developments• There is a need for pooling knowledge and
expertise• Broaden perspectives of modellers and model
users – feedback function
A web-based inventory developed collaboratively by the EEA and the respective modellersHosted by EEA but updated by modellers
24 European Environment Agency
Overview of available outlook indicators -relevant to pan-European region
IMS and CIRCAhttp://ims.eionet.europa.eu/IMS/ISpecs/sets#Outlook
• Review ~ 150 indicators• from 14 institutions• 14 models
• Themes and issues not well covered:
terrestrial, fisheries, water quality, land and natural resources use,
environmental management, integration with socio-economic issues
•59 are in the IMS (F)•30 outlook indicators used in
the Glimpses report•10 outlook indicators used in
Belgrade report
•12 are related to the EEA CSI
•All included in Catalogue (2008)
Key results
25 European Environment Agency
Comparison of relations outlooks to EEA CSICLIMATE CHANGE
GHG emissions Projections of GHG emissions from National Communications under UNFCCC
Projections of GHG emissions from UNECE
GHG emissions - outlook from IEA model
GHG emissions - outlook from RAINS model
GHG emissions - outlook from IEA/ETP model
GHG emissions - outlook from IMAGE model
Global and European temperature Global and European temperature – outlook from National communications under UNFCCC
Global and European temperature– outlook from IMAGE model
TERRESTRIAL
Land cover distribution Land cover distribution and change -outlook from GLOBIO/IMAGE model
WASTE
Municipal waste generation Municipal waste generation - outlook from National communications under UNFCCC
Municipal waste generation - outlook from OECD model
Municipal waste management- N/A
Municipal waste management - outlook from OECD model
26 European Environment Agency
Catalogue of outlook indicators59 outlooks: 20 available in May 2008, the rest by summer
27 European Environment Agency
Indicator Time WCE Region EECCA Region SEE Region Source
Population 2000 to 2030 WCE +1% EECCA -6.1% SEE +16% World population prospects. UN Population Division, 2007.
GDP 2005 to 2030 EU-15
EU-10
+64% +141%
EECCA +182% SEE w/o Turkey +141% OECD Outlook, OECD (forthcoming).
Working age population per one person over 65
2000 to 2020 WCE -53% EECCA -51% SEE - 61% World population prospects. UN Population Division, 2007.
Emissions of acidifying pollutants (SO2)
2000 to 2020 EU 25 -63% to -85% EECCA -1.5% SEE -33% EMEP Inventory Review. EMEP, 2005.
Emissions of acidifying pollutants (NOx)
2000 to 2020 EU 25 -46% to -69% EECCA +48% SEE -16%
Emissions of acidifying pollutants (NH3)
2000 to 2020 EU 25 -5% to -42% EECCA +36% SEE +5%
Assessment of outlooks for three Pan-European subregions:
28 European Environment Agency
Assessment of availability of data in Western Balkans
29 European Environment Agency
Belgrade report Annex 3
30 European Environment Agency
The way forward:
• 2008: Comparative analyses of 59 outlook indicators
• 2009: consultation with countries• Regular update of few of them?
31 European Environment Agency
PAST ACTIVITIES:
• Countries • Regions (SEE, EECCA…)• UNEP – GEO 3/GEO 4• MA – Scenarios report • Research Networks and publications
32 European Environment Agency
- Use of existing scenarios (UNEP GEO) for downscaling to the country level
- Workshop gathered different stakeholders in the country and liaised discussion between them
Slovenia 2005: - Analysis of existing strategic goals and measures in
transport and waste sector for 4 different scenarios• Identification of gaps in existing strategies and robust
goals and measures for all scenarios
Turkey 2006/7: - Discussing the energy system in the 4 scenarios• Identifyication of adequate policy measures for
developing a robust energy strategy in each scenario
33 European Environment Agency
PRELUDE 2action - AustriaInitiated by the Austrian Environment Ministry
• 1 Day - presentation of 4 PRELUDE scenarios in a circuit
• Around 40 participants from different national and regional authorities
• Lively, open discussion• What is the relevance (for EU, for Austria?)• What is the plausibility (for EU, for Austria?)• What is the desirability (for EU, for Austria?)
• Positive feedback – similar exercise run by the Oesterreichische Raumordnungskonferenz in May 2008
34 European Environment Agency
NEIGHBOURHOOD COUNTRIES (2009):
Cooperation with UNEP GRID Arendal within Environment and security project - Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus- scenario development activity to strengthen countries
capacities and contribute to identification of sustainable options of energy security strategies in Eastern Europe
This activity would further link to EEA contribution to neighbourhood policy and EEA pan-European Astana report 2010
35 European Environment Agency
• DUET Change
36 European Environment Agency
• Developing the European component of global scenarios-narrative (on the bases of GEO-3 scenarios)• Bringing together European stakeholder team to
support this task
• Contributing to the quantitative analyses to support narratives
• Contributing to the chapter 9 of the UNEP GEO-4 report
Contribution to UNEP GEO-4 report
37 European Environment Agency
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment- MA
• Scenarios team since beginning• Development of scenarios• Co-authored several chapters of the Scenario
Assessment report.
MA – Manual ( forthcoming Dec. 2008)• Co-authoring chapter on Scenarios
38 European Environment Agency
Recent contributions to other foresight research projects / processes
• IWRM-NET WP 3: ”Long-term research needs in integrated water resource management” (Advisory group) - 2008
• STOA / Danish Board of Technology: ”The Future of Long-Distance Transport in Europe” (Advisory group) – 2007/2008
• DG RTD ”Long-term research needs in agriculture” – 2007
• MATISSE, FORESCENE, SENSOR, Etc.
39 European Environment Agency
Thank you!
40 European Environment Agency
• Conference presentations• Linking with main Knowledge
centres (Oxford, MA, …….)• Scientific publications (MA, MA manual, …. )• other research projects
41 European Environment Agency
PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe
Project objectives and outputs
To explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment (2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland)
To provide a context against which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged.
Participatory development of qualitative / quantitative scenarios for Europe and regional case studies
New approaches to scenario communication: video/audio-animated presentation tool Stylish brochure Interactive mind-stretcher
Technical report and several conference papers to document analysis and experiences with the participatory development
42 European Environment Agency
BLOSSOM
Background
• Long-term environmental problems require a long-term (environmental) policy perspective
• A couple of challenges:
• The question is not only how to better assess key drivers, impacts and uncertainties of long-term future developments...
• ... but also how to take decisions that are robust, or sound, against a variety of these alternative future developments?
Quite often the ones who are producing the information are not the ones who take the decisions
43 European Environment Agency
BLOSSOM cont.
Main questions• What is the actual impact of environmental scenarios and
other forward-looking studies and tools on policy-making?
• Anecdotal evidence that many decisions that could benefit from scenarios/other tools are not using them at all or not to the full potential advertised in the literature
• Is this due to:• Lack of evaluation?• Lack of appropiate methods?• Lack of appropiate institutions?
44 European Environment Agency
BLOSSOM cont.
Main rationale Bridging LOng-term Scenarios and Strategy analysis –
Organisation and Methods
• A systemetic effort to:
• Take stock
• Scrutinize institutional arragements
– Analyse methods and develop case studies
» Foster information exchange and learning
45 European Environment Agency
BLOSSOM cont.
BLOSSOM 1.0 Started January 2008
• Organisations review
• Literature review
• Expert workshop
46 European Environment Agency
BLOSSOM cont.
First results• Literature review: 52 journal or book chapters match our
criteria of ”evaluative scenario literature”, so far...
• Some of the main findings:• Little to less work on factors that influence the successful
use of scenarios• Most empirical cases come from the world of business• Little to less work on failure of scenario exercises• Growing literature evaluating environmental assessments
does not make a significant mentioning of scenarios• Institutions – the missing debate?• Methods – how to better aling long-term scenario&policy
analysis? Concepts of robust decision-making etc.