European Economic and Social Committee, Brussels, March 4, 2013
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Transcript of European Economic and Social Committee, Brussels, March 4, 2013
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Agricultural resilience -- what do we know and what do we need to know
Sir Gordon Conway,Professor of International
DevelopmentAgriculture for Impact,
Imperial College, London
European Economic and Social Committee, Brussels,
March 4, 2013
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Resilience –stresses and shocks
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Africa’s Climate – Key Factors
Rising sea and land temperatures
Three Drivers:
Tropical convection The Monsoons El Niño – La Niña Oscillation
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http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
El Niño – La Niño Oscillation
El Niño
La Niña
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Stresses
Gradual build-up of adverse events
• Pest and disease attack• Land degradation• Growing pollution• Increasing temperatures• Rising sea levels• Greater or lesser rainfall• Growing indebtedness
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UNDP Human Development Report, 2006
Climate change in Africa
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More than 5% reduction in
length of growing period
Average Annual Max Temp > 300C
By 2050
Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics
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ShocksUsually dramatic, largely
unexpected events• Locust outbreaks• Disease outbreaks• Sudden floods• Major drought• Cyclones• Earthquakes• Tsunamis
• Financial collapse
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Extreme Events
Hansen et al, 2012, NASA
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Extreme Events
Russia Severe heatwave in 2010 Doubled Moscow’s death
rate 30% of grain crops lost to burning
Pakistan Worst floods in 80 years Killed over 1600 people Submerged 1/5th of the country, including
14% of Pakistan’s cultivated land
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We have to be Innovative
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Sustainable Intensification Increased yields or production
On the same amount of land With less water Less fertilisers Less pesticides Lower emissions of Greenhouse Gases
Increased natural capitaland environmental services
Greater resilience
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Precision FarmingMicrodosing in Niger
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Ecological Resilience
Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices
e.g. Agroforestry Integrated Pest Management Organic farming
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Conservation Farming in Zambia
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Genetic ResilienceModern Plant Breeding
Plants more nutritious carbohydrate and protein micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc)
Plants more resilient to pests and diseases climate change
Plants more efficient at converting sunlight to food taking up nitrogen from the atmosphere using water
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Orange Fleshed Sweet Potatoes
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Bananas Resistant to Wilt in Uganda
$500 million losses a year in Uganda
Academia Sinica provided sweet potato gene
Successfully transferred to bananas
In Ugandan field trials
Entirely government funded
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Chaperone Genes for Drought Tolerance
Genes from Bacterial RNA that help to repair misfolded proteins resulting from stress
Plants rapidly recover
No yield penalty when stress free
In African field trials
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Socio-Economic Resilience -
Markets
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An Enabling Environment
Model of Alliance for a Green Revolution for Africa (AGRA)
Rural Economy
Farm Household in the local community
Seed Co
Agrodealer
Fertiliser Co
Banks formicrocredit
Local trader
Connectivity
Regional trade
National trade
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Resilient People
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Nwadjahane, Southern Mozambique
Increasingly frequent and severe droughts, floods, and storms
Fertile lowlands good crops but can be destroyed during flood Highlands good crops of maize and cassava during flood years, but less productive otherwise
http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/landscape/projects/adaptiv... Eduardo Mondlane
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How do we build Resilient Livelihoods?
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Conway, G. ‘One Billion Hungry: Can we feedthe world?’
www.canwefeedtheworld.org
Follow us on twitter: #1billionhungry
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