European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP)

Annual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 AthensAnnual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens

WP4 - Modelling and forecasting system assessment. Standards,

quality, functions

Korotaev Gennady (MHI)

Objectives: -to evaluate existing forecasting activity in pan-European scale and to identify common standard;-to establish validation criteria of multidisciplinary information products;-to assess the quality of multidisciplinary information products;-to identify research priorities for optimizing of the pan-European forecasting system.

European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP)

Annual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 AthensAnnual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens

Validationdatabase

WP6 WP5

WP2T4. 3Validationof modelsproduct

T4. 1

T4. 4

T4. 2InventoryStandards

Metrics AlgorithmProtocols

On-line validation procedure

On-line validation procedure

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ModelsImprovement

European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP)

Annual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 AthensAnnual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens

PACKAGE PARTICIPANTS

1. Baltic Sea DMI, SMHI, FIMR, BSH2. North Sea MET-NO, MUMM, PML3. I-B-I Region MERCATOR, IST, IOI4. Med Sea IASA-UAT, IMC, POC5. Black Sea MHI, IOBAS, NIMRD

European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP)

Annual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 AthensAnnual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens

PACKAGE COORDINATION

1. Baltic Sea DMI 2. North Sea MET-NO3. Iberia-Biscay-Ireland MERCATOR4. Mediterranean Sea IASA-UAT5. Black Sea MHI

European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP)

Annual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 AthensAnnual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens

PACKAGE COORDINATION

-Coorcination of the interaction of theme 2 work packages (Galway, March 2007)-WP4 Task Team meeting (Toulouse, 06.07, Athens, 02.08)-Communication with regional coordinators/package participants by e-mail

New schedule proposal New schedule proposal for theme 2 : for theme 2 :

WP4-WP5-WP6-WP7WP4-WP5-WP6-WP7

Proposed during Galway kick Proposed during Galway kick off meeting (1-2 March 07) + off meeting (1-2 March 07) +

updated afterwards taking updated afterwards taking account on deliverables account on deliverables

written in DoWwritten in DoWDominique ObatonMercator Océan

Dominique.obaton@mercator-ocean.fr

New proposal, theme2 (updated from kick New proposal, theme2 (updated from kick off): off): modifications proposed (in red) modifications proposed (in red) remarks (in remarks (in green)green)Mo4 (31 May)Mo4 (31 May) instead of Mo6: report on V0 system–WP5 instead of Mo6: report on V0 system–WP5 V1 upgrade can startV1 upgrade can startMo5 (30 June)Mo5 (30 June) instead of Mo6: inventory of subregional systems –WP4 instead of Mo6: inventory of subregional systems –WP4Mo6: review of sampling methodologies + implementation plan –WP7Mo6: review of sampling methodologies + implementation plan –WP7Mo10 (30 November)Mo10 (30 November) instead of Mo12: common standards/gaps/overlaps = instead of Mo12: common standards/gaps/overlaps =

assessment of V0 assessment of V0 ++ standards of validation we want to reach (2 levels) standards of validation we want to reach (2 levels) WP4 WP4 Mo12 (January 08)Mo12 (January 08) instead of Mo9: procedure model validation –WP4 instead of Mo9: procedure model validation –WP4Mo12: def new oper. methodologies for multiparametric measurements –WP7Mo12: def new oper. methodologies for multiparametric measurements –WP7Mo13Mo13 (February 08)(February 08) instead of Mo16: recommendations to WP5 & WP6 for instead of Mo16: recommendations to WP5 & WP6 for

improvements before validation –WP4improvements before validation –WP4Mo15 (April 08): first results in upgrades for V1 –step indication, no deliverables-Mo15 (April 08): first results in upgrades for V1 –step indication, no deliverables-Mo15 (April 08)Mo15 (April 08) instead of Mo16: common protocol for validation + offline regional instead of Mo16: common protocol for validation + offline regional

validation database from WP2 –WP4validation database from WP2 –WP4Mo 16 (1 May) to Mo18 (31 July): 3 months of validation + use of EuroMISSMo 16 (1 May) to Mo18 (31 July): 3 months of validation + use of EuroMISSMo 18Mo 18 (July 08)(July 08) instead of Mo22: recommendations to WP6 for improvements instead of Mo22: recommendations to WP6 for improvements

after 3 months validation –WP4 after 3 months validation –WP4 Mo18: assessment and plan for MERSEA & ECOOP coupling –WP5Mo18: assessment and plan for MERSEA & ECOOP coupling –WP5Mo18: plan for TOP –WP5Mo18: plan for TOP –WP5Mo18: sediment protot. + data assimilation scheme + set up of models –WP7Mo18: sediment protot. + data assimilation scheme + set up of models –WP7Mo18: design of long term monitoring system + report on newly available data for Mo18: design of long term monitoring system + report on newly available data for

operational purpose–WP7operational purpose–WP7

New proposal, theme2 (updated from kick New proposal, theme2 (updated from kick off): off): modifications proposed (in red) modifications proposed (in red) remarks (in green)remarks (in green)Mo21 (Oct. 2008)Mo21 (Oct. 2008) instead of Mo18: 2nd upgrades for V1 + report –WP5 instead of Mo18: 2nd upgrades for V1 + report –WP5Mo21: upgrades from WP7 included in WP5Mo21: upgrades from WP7 included in WP5Mo21 Mo21 instead of Mo25: protocol for online validation -WP4instead of Mo25: protocol for online validation -WP4 Mo22 (1 Nov 08) Mo22 (1 Nov 08) Mo27 (30 April 09): TOP –WP5 Mo27 (30 April 09): TOP –WP5 with data flow to EuroMISS with data flow to EuroMISS

and EuroDESSand EuroDESSMo22Mo22Mo27Mo27 instead of Mo30: online validation during TOP-WP4 instead of Mo30: online validation during TOP-WP4Mo24 (Jan 09): ENSURF –WP7Mo24 (Jan 09): ENSURF –WP7Mo30 (July 09): report on validation –WP4Mo30 (July 09): report on validation –WP4Mo30 Mo30 instead of Mo36: Report instead of Mo36: Report on TOP assessmenton TOP assessment (instead of on V2 system (instead of on V2 system

which is done in WP6) –WP5which is done in WP6) –WP5Mo30: assessment of upgrades for MERSEA & ECOOP coupling –WP5Mo30: assessment of upgrades for MERSEA & ECOOP coupling –WP5Mo30: sampling of long term monitoring system –WP7Mo30: sampling of long term monitoring system –WP7Mo33 (Oct 09): report on downscaling + report on wave coupling/river flow + Mo33 (Oct 09): report on downscaling + report on wave coupling/river flow +

report on data assimilation + report on ecosystem –WP6report on data assimilation + report on ecosystem –WP6Mo33: error source assessment –WP7Mo33: error source assessment –WP7Mo36 (Jan 09): report on enhancements on Baltic sea + NW shelf + IBI-ROOS Mo36 (Jan 09): report on enhancements on Baltic sea + NW shelf + IBI-ROOS

+ Med sea + Black sea (V2 system) –WP6+ Med sea + Black sea (V2 system) –WP6Mo36: Report on TOP hindcast and evaluation –WP6Mo36: Report on TOP hindcast and evaluation –WP6Mo36: assessment of new technologies + full system + validated system & Mo36: assessment of new technologies + full system + validated system &

estimate in targeted areas + sdiments budgets + multi models ensemble –estimate in targeted areas + sdiments budgets + multi models ensemble –WP7WP7

WP4 Task Team MeetingToulouse, France, 5-6 June

BSH Kai Soetje kai.soetje@bsh.deDMI Ole Krarup Leth <okl@dmi.dk> SMHI Bertil Haakansson Bertil.Hakansson@smhi.seFIMR Tapani.Stipa@fimr.fiMET-NO Øyvind Sætra <oyvind.satra@met.no>MUMM Patrick Luyten patrick@mumm.ac.be METO Holt Martin martin.holt@metoffice.gov.uk, PML Icarus Allen jia@pml.ac.ukMERCATOR Dominique Obaton dobaton@mercator-ocean.frIST/MARETEC Luis Fernandes <lfernandes.maretec@ist.utl.pt>CNRS-POC Claude Estournel estc@aero.obs-mip.frIMC Roberto Sorgente r.sorgente@imc-it.org IASA-UAT Sarantis Sofianos sofianos@oc.phys.uoa.gr, Anneta Mantziafou <anneta.mantziafou@gmail.com>MHI Gennady Korotaev korotaevgren@mail.ru

5 June14h-14h30’ Review of the WP4 objectives and time table (Gennady Korotaev)14h30’-15h T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and coastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standards (Ole Krarup Leth)15h-15h50’ Overview of the sub-regional systems participating in validation:Baltic Sea Ole Krarup LethNorth Sea Oyvind Saetre, Icarus AllenBiscay Bay Luis FernandesMediterranean Sea Sarantis SofianosBlack Sea Gennady Korotaev15h50’-16h20’ Common standard approach (Ole Krarup Leth)16h20’-16h50’ Break16h50’-17h20’ T4.2 - Establishment of validation criteria of multidisciplinary information products (Fabrice Hernand)

6 June9h’-9h30’ T4.3 - Evaluation of the quality of information products (Oyvind Saetre)9h30’-10h20’ Validation data basesBaltic Sea Ole Krarup LethNorth Sea Oyvind Saetre, Icarus AllenBiscay Bay Luis FernandesMediterranean Sea Sarantis SofianosBlack Sea Gennady Korotaev10h20’-11h10’ On-line validation data flowBaltic Sea Ole Krarup LethNorth Sea Oyvind Saetre, Icarus AllenBiscay Bay Luis FernandesMediterranean Sea Sarantis SofianosBlack Sea Gennady Korotaev11h10’-11h30’ Break11h30’-12h00’Recommendations on the off-line validation approach (Dominique Obaton, Oyvind Saetre)12h00’-12h30’ Recommendations on the on-line validation approach (Dominique Obaton, Oyvind Saetre)

12h30’-13h T4.4 - Optimizing of the pan-European nowcasting and forecasting system (Sarantis Sofianos)13h-14h Lunch14h-14h30’ Approaches to the improvement of regional forecasting systems according to common standards (Sarantis Sofianos)14h30’-15h Approaches to the improvement of regional systems according to products validation results (Sarantis Sofianos)Closure

-INVENTORY AND STANDARDS

-VALIDATION ALGORITHMS

-VALIDATION DATA BASE EVALUATION

MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS

European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP)

Annual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 AthensAnnual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens

T4.1 - Evaluation of nowcasting and forecasting activity in regional and oastal seas of Europe and establishing of common standardsBerg Per (DMI) - DMI, IASA-UAT, MERCATOR, MET-NO, MHI

Objectives: Compile inventory of ECOOP operational and preoperational activity in European regional and coastal seas and establish common standards

European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP)

Annual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 AthensAnnual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens

S4.1.1 - Compile inventory of ECOOP operational and preoperationalactivity in European regional and coastal seas (models, processes, atmospheric forcing, downscaling and links to the basin-scales, data assimilations, products)Berg Per (DMI) - DMI, IASA-UAT, MERCATOR, MET-NO, MHI

Objectives: Define the structure of inventory of ECOOP operational and preoperational activity in European regional and coastal seas and compile it.Description: All activity will be ended during first 18 months.

S4.1.2 - Evaluate common standards of the nowcasting and forecasting activity.Berg Per (DMI) - DMI, IASA-UAT, MERCATOR, MET-NO, MHI

Objectives: Establish common standards of the ECOOP regional and sub-regional systemsDescription: All activity will be ended during first 18 months

Baltic SeaSMHI, SweedenBSH, GermanyFIMR, FinlandDMI, Denmark

North SeaMUMM, BelgiumMET.NO Norway

Iberian Biscay Ireland IST, PortugalMeteoGalicia, SpainMercator Ocean, FranceIEO, SpainIMI, Ireland

Mediterranean SeaOC-UCY, CyprusHCMR, GreeceIASA, GreeceIMC, ItalyPOC-CNRS, France

Black SeaIOBAS, BulgariaNIMRD, RomaniaMHI, UkraineGAS, GeorgiaSOI, Russia

European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP)

Annual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 AthensAnnual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens

T4.2 - Establishment of validation criteria of multidisciplinary information productsBahurel Pierre (MERCATOR) - DMI, IASA-UAT, MERCATOR, MET-NO, MHI

Objectives: Select parameters, establish metrics and define common protocols of offline and online validation of regional and sub-regional products.

European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP)

Annual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 AthensAnnual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens

S4.2.1 - Define common algorithms and procedures of model validationBahurel Pierre (MERCATOR) - DMI, IASA-UAT, MERCATOR, MET-NO, MHI

Objectives: To propose metrics and algorithms of model validationsDescription: All activity will be ended during first 18 months.

S4.2.2 - Establish common protocol to calculate standard validation criterionsBahurel Pierre (MERCATOR) - DMI, IASA-UAT, MERCATOR, MET-NO, MHI

Objectives: Formalize algorithms and procedures of model validation in the form of protocolsDescription: All activity will be ended during first 18 months.

European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP)

Annual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 AthensAnnual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens

T4.3 - Evaluation of the quality of information productsHackett Bruce (MET-NO) - BSH, DMI, FIMR, IASA-UAT, IMS-METU, IO-BAS, IST,MERCATOR, MET-NO, METO, MHI, PML, RBINS-MUMM, SMHI

Objectives: Evaluate the quality of selected products produced by regional and sub-regional systems

European COstal-shelf sea Operational observing and Forecasting system (ECOOP)

Annual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 AthensAnnual Meeting 12-15 February 2008 Athens

S4.3.1 - Establish regional validation databases Hackett Bruce (MET-NO) - DMI, IASA-UAT, MERCATOR, MET-NO, MHI

Objectives: To establish regional centres responsible for archiving quality controlled observations and making the data accessible for the partners.

Description: All activity will be ended during first 18 months.

An example of data extraction from the Bythos tool of the Oceanographic Center of the University of Cyprus

REPORTING

SUBTASK REPORTS (S4.1.1, S4.1.2, S4.2.1)

DELIVERABLES REPORTS (D4.1.1.1, D4.1.2.1, D4.2.1.1)

INERIM REPORT

ANNUAL ACTIVITY REPORT

NEXT 18 MONTHS ACTIVITY(planned at DoW)

D4.2.2.1 (Mo16): Common protocol to calculate standard validation criterions.D4.3.1.1 (Mo16): Establish regional validation databases.D4.4.1.1 (Mo16): Recommendations (to WP6) of regional forecasting systems improvement according to common standards.D4.4.2.1 (Mo22): Recommendation (to WP6) of regional systemsimprovement according to products validation results.D4.2.3.1 (Mo25): Protocols of on-line product validation.D4.3.2.1 (Mo30): Report on validation of regional products according to standard criteria using archive data.

TIMETABLE ADOPTED 12.02.08

Mo13Mo13 (February 08)(February 08) instead of Mo16: recommendations to instead of Mo16: recommendations to WP5 & WP6 for improvements before validation –WP4WP5 & WP6 for improvements before validation –WP4Mo15 (April 08): first results in upgrades for V1 –step Mo15 (April 08): first results in upgrades for V1 –step indication, no deliverables-indication, no deliverables-Mo15 (April 08)Mo15 (April 08) instead of Mo16: common protocol for instead of Mo16: common protocol for validation + offline regional validation database from WP2 validation + offline regional validation database from WP2 –WP4–WP4Mo 16 (1 May) to Mo18 (31 July): 3 months of validation + Mo 16 (1 May) to Mo18 (31 July): 3 months of validation + use of EuroMISSuse of EuroMISSMo22: recommendations to WP6 for improvements after 3 Mo22: recommendations to WP6 for improvements after 3 months validation –WP4 months validation –WP4 Mo18: assessment and plan for MERSEA & ECOOP Mo18: assessment and plan for MERSEA & ECOOP coupling –WP5coupling –WP5Mo18: plan for TOP –WP5Mo18: plan for TOP –WP5Mo18: sediment protot. + data assimilation scheme + set Mo18: sediment protot. + data assimilation scheme + set up of models –WP7up of models –WP7Mo18: design of long term monitoring system + report on Mo18: design of long term monitoring system + report on newly available data for operational purpose–WP7newly available data for operational purpose–WP7

(CONTINUATION)

Mo21 (Oct. 2008)Mo21 (Oct. 2008) instead of Mo18: 2nd upgrades for V1 + instead of Mo18: 2nd upgrades for V1 + report –WP5report –WP5Mo21: upgrades from WP7 included in WP5Mo21: upgrades from WP7 included in WP5Mo21 Mo21 instead of Mo25: protocol for online validation -WP4instead of Mo25: protocol for online validation -WP4 Mo22 (1 Nov 08) Mo22 (1 Nov 08) Mo27 (30 April 09): TOP –WP5 Mo27 (30 April 09): TOP –WP5 with with data flow to EuroMISS and EuroDESSdata flow to EuroMISS and EuroDESSMo22Mo22Mo27Mo27 instead of Mo30: online validation during instead of Mo30: online validation during TOP-WP4TOP-WP4Mo24 (Jan 09): ENSURF –WP7Mo24 (Jan 09): ENSURF –WP7Mo30 (July 09): report on validation –WP4Mo30 (July 09): report on validation –WP4Mo30 Mo30 instead of Mo36: Report instead of Mo36: Report on TOP assessmenton TOP assessment (instead of on V2 system which is done in WP6) –WP5(instead of on V2 system which is done in WP6) –WP5Mo30: assessment of upgrades for MERSEA & ECOOP Mo30: assessment of upgrades for MERSEA & ECOOP coupling –WP5coupling –WP5Mo30: sampling of long term monitoring system –WP7Mo30: sampling of long term monitoring system –WP7