Europe – the lost continent?
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Europe – the lost continent?
Howard DaviesDirector, LSE
KR Narayanan Memorial LectureIndian Council of World Affairs8 April 2010
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The European Union: 500 million people – 27 countries
Source: Eurostat.
EU population, million people, 1986 – 2010
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The Euro: A single currency for Europeans
Source: http://europa.eu/
EU countries using the euroEU countries not using the euro
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How rich is the EU compared to the US, China and India?
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2009.
GDP per capita, current prices (US dollars), 2008
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The EU economy is close in size to that of the US
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2009.
GDP, current prices (Billion US dollars), 2008
EU (18,387 Billion USD) US (14,441 Billion USD)
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-5
0
5
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15
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China
France
Germany
India
United Kingdom
United States
Europe’s post-crisis growth rates will be sluggish
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2009.
Gross domestic product forecast (% change), constant prices, 2007-2014
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The World’s Economic Centre of Gravity is moving eastwards
Source: Grether JM, Mathys N (2008): Is the World’s Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?
Projection of the World’s Economic and Geographic Centre of Gravity
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EU is losing its share in the global economic governance
Source: www.g20.org.
G8 G20
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10-year government-bond spreads over German bunds, percentage points, 2008 Jan – 2010 Jan
Costs of borrowing in the Eurozone have been growing apart
Source: The Economist.
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Spain
France
Greece
Germany
Unit labour costs in Greece and Spain have been growing more rapidly than in Germany or France
Quarterly unit labour cost*, index (2005 = 100.0), 2006 Q4 – 2009 Q3
* Unit labour costs measure the average cost of labour per unit of output and are calculated as the ratio of total labour costs to real output.
Source: OECD Data.
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“If change is - inevitable - predictable - beneficial - doesn't logic demand
that you be a part of it?”
(Captain James T. Kirk, Star Trek)
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Europe – the lost continent?
Howard DaviesDirector, LSE
KR Narayanan Memorial LectureIndian Council of World Affairs8 April 2010