A R M E N I A

I S L A M I C R E P U B L I C

O F I R A N

R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N

Nagorno-karabakh

Agdach

Agdam Agdjabedi

Akstafa

Aksu

Ali Bajramly

Apcheron

Astara

BakuBarda

Bebek

Bejladjan

Belokany

BilesuvarChakhbuz

Chamkhor

Cheki

Chemakha

Cherur

Dachkestan

Divitchi

DjalilabadDjebrail

Djulfa

Djulfa City

Evlakh

Fizuli

Gabela

Gakh

GandjaGeoktchayGeranboy

Gobustan

Gusar

Imichli

Ismaily

Kazakh

Kedabek

KelbadjarKhadjikabul

Khanlar

Khatchmas

Khyzy

Kuba

Kubatly

Kurdamir

Latchin

LenkoranLerik

Masaly

Mingetchaur

Naftalan

Nakhitchevan

Neftetchala

Ofuz

Ordubad

Ordubad City

Saatly SabirobadSalyany

Samukh

Sederek

Siyasan

Sumgait

Tartar

Tauz

Utchar

Yardamly

Yvlakh

Zakatala

Zangelan

Zardob

Baku

C A S P I A N S E A

9

0.010.15

0.521.4 39

GDP (billions of $)

FLOOD

EARTHQUAKE

20

51

Negligible

Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)

There is a high correlation(r=0.95) between the

population and GDP of a province.

TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES

FLOOD EARTHQUAKEANNUAL AVERAGE OF AFFECTED GDP (%)

ANNUAL AVERAGE OF AFFECTED GDP (%)

ZardobAli BajramlySabirobadKurdamirNeftetchala SalyanySaatlyAgdachOrdubadAkstafa

24111010998433

Ali BajramlyAstaraSalyanyCherurUtcharKhadjikabulGeoktchayNeftetchalaLenkoranSabirobad

6555554444

Azerbaijan’s population and econ-omy are exposed to earthquakes and floods, with earthquakes

posing the greater risk of a high impact, lower probability event. The model re-sults for present-day risk shown in this risk profile are based on population and gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for 2015. The estimated damage caused by historical events is inflated to 2015 US dollars.

Just over half of Azerbaijan’s population lives in urban environments. The coun-try’s GDP was approximately US$54.6 billion in 2015, with close to 60 percent derived from industry, most of the remainder generated by services, and agriculture making a small contribution.

AzerbaijanEUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILES

GDP $54.6 billion*

Population 9.7 million*

AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR FLOOD

AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR EARTHQUAKE

CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR EARTHQUAKE

$1 billion (2%)

500,000 (5%)

$40 billion (71%)

3 million (34%)

$6 billion (11%)

40,000 (<1%)

*2015 estimates

Azerbaijan’s per capita GDP was $5,630.

This map displays GDP by prov-ince in Azerbaijan, with greater color saturation indicating greater GDP within a province. The blue circles indicate the risk of experiencing floods and the orange circles the risk of earth-quakes in terms of normalized annual average of affected GDP. The largest circles represent the greatest normalized risk. The risk is estimated using flood and earthquake risk models.

The table displays the provinces at greatest normalized risk for each peril. In relative terms, as shown in the table, the province at greatest risk of floods is Zard-ob, and the one at greatest risk of earthquakes is Ali Bajramly. In absolute terms, the province at greatest risk of floods is Ali Bajramly, and the one at greatest risk of earthquakes is Baku.

1.4

A R M E N I A

I S L A M I C R E P U B L I C

O F I R A N

R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N

Nagorno-karabakh

Agdach

AgdamAgdjabedi

Akstafa

Aksu

Ali Bajramly

Apcheron

Astara

BakuBarda

Bebek

Bejladjan

Belokany

BilesuvarChakhbuz

Chamkhor

Cheki

Chemakha

Cherur

Dachkestan

Divitchi

DjalilabadDjebrail

Djulfa

Djulfa City

Evlakh

Fizuli

Gabela

Gakh

GandjaGeoktchayGeranboy

Gobustan

Gusar

Imichli

Ismaily

Kazakh

Kedabek

KelbadjarKhadjikabul

Khanlar

Khatchmas

Khyzy

Kuba

Kubatly

Kurdamir

Latchin

LenkoranLerik

Masaly

Mingetchaur

Naftalan

NakhitchevanNeftetchala

Ofuz

Ordubad

Ordubad City

Saatly

SabirobadSalyany

Samukh

Sederek

Siyasan

Sumgait

Tartar

Tauz

Utchar

Yardamly

Yvlakh

Zakatala

Zangelan Zardob

Baku

C A S P I A N S E A

The most devastating floods in modern Azerbaijan since it gained its independence

in 1991 occurred in 2003, affecting more than 30,000 people and causing over $70 million in damage. Floods in 1995 affected over 1.5 million people and caused about $30 million in damage.

This map depicts the impact of flood-ing on provinces’ GDPs, represented as percentages of their annual aver-age GDPs affected, with greater color saturation indicating higher percent-ages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by floods with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The horizontal line across the bars also shows the annual average of GDP affected by floods.

When a flood has a 10-year return period, it means the probability of occurrence of a flood of that magni-tude or greater is 10 percent per year. A 100-year flood has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of time, a flood of that magnitude will, on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year flood will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a flood of any return period to occur more than once in the same year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of time.

If the 10- and 100-year bars are the same height, then the impact of a 10-year event is as large as that of a 100-year event, and the annual average of affected GDP is dominated by events that happen relatively frequently. If the impact of a 100-year event is much greater than that of a 10-year event, then less frequent events make a larger contribution to the annual average of affected GDP. Thus, even if a province’s annual affected GDP seems small, less frequent and more intense events can still have large impacts.

The annual average population affect-ed by flooding in Azerbaijan is about 100,000 and the annual average affected GDP about $300 million. Within the various provinces, the 10- and 100-year impacts do not differ much, so relatively frequent floods have large impacts on these averages.

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILESFLOODAzerbaijan

0 1 2 4 8

Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)

6

80

40

10

Affected GDP (%) for

10 and 100-year return periods

Annual average

10-year 100-year

One block = 10%

10

A R M E N I A

I S L A M I C R E P U B L I C

O F I R A N

R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N

Nagorno-karabakh

Agdach

AgdamAgdjabedi

Akstafa

Aksu

Ali Bajramly

Apcheron

Astara

BakuBarda

Bebek

Bejladjan

Belokany

BilesuvarChakhbuz

Chamkhor

Cheki

Chemakha

Cherur

Dachkestan

Divitchi

DjalilabadDjebrail

Djulfa

Djulfa City

Evlakh

Fizuli

Gabela

Gakh

GandjaGeoktchayGeranboy

Gobustan

Gusar

Imichli

Ismaily

Kazakh

Kedabek

KelbadjarKhadjikabul

Khanlar

Khatchmas

Khyzy

Kuba

Kubatly

Kurdamir

Latchin

LenkoranLerik

Masaly

Mingetchaur

Naftalan

NakhitchevanNeftetchala

Ofuz

Ordubad

Ordubad City

Saatly

SabirobadSalyany

Samukh

Sederek

Siyasan

Sumgait

Tartar

Tauz

Utchar

Yardamly

Yvlakh

Zakatala

Zangelan Zardob

Baku

C A S P I A N S E A

I S L A M I C R E P U B L I C

O F I R A N

R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N

Nagorno-karabakh

Agdach

Agdam Agdjabedi

Akstafa

Aksu

Ali Bajramly

Apcheron

Astara

Baku

Barda

Bebek

Bejladjan

Belokany

Bilesuvar

Chakhbuz

Chamkhor

Cheki

Chemakha

Cherur

Dachkestan

Divitchi

DjalilabadDjebrail

Djulfa

Djulfa City

Evlakh

Fizuli

Gabela

Gakh

Gandja

GeoktchayGeranboyGobustan

Gusar

Imichli

Ismaily

Kazakh

Kedabek

KelbadjarKhadjikabul

Khanlar

Khatchmas

Khyzy

Kuba

Kubatly

Kurdamir

Latchin

LenkoranLerik

Masaly

Mingetchaur

Naftalan

Nakhitchevan

Neftetchala

Ofuz

Ordubad

Ordubad City

Saatly

SabirobadSalyany

Samukh

Sederek

Siyasan

Sumgait

Tartar

Tauz

Utchar

Yardamly

Yvlakh

Zakatala

Zangelan Zardob

Baku

C A S P I A N S E A

Azerbaijan’s worst earth-quake in recent decades took place in 2000 in the

capital city of Baku, with a magni-tude of 6.8. It caused more than 30 fatalities and over $10 million in damage. A 1999 earthquake caused one death and nearly $7 million in damage. The most deadly known earthquake in Azerbaijan’s history occurred in 1667 or 1668 and caused around 80,000 fatalities.

This map depicts the impact of earthquakes on provinces’ GDPs, represented as percentages of their annual average GDPs affected, with greater color saturation indicating higher percentages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by earth-quakes with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The horizontal line across the bars also shows the annual average of GDP affected by earthquakes.

When an earthquake has a 10-year return period, it means the prob-ability of occurrence of an earth-quake of that magnitude or greater is 10 percent per year. A 100-year earthquake has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of time, an earthquake of that mag-nitude will, on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year earthquake will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for an earthquake

of any return period to occur more than once in the same year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of time.

If the 10- and 100-year bars are the same height, then the impact of a 10-year event is as large as that of a 100-year event, and the annual av-erage of affected GDP is dominated by events that happen relatively fre-quently. If the impact of a 100-year event is much greater than that of a 10-year event, then less frequent events make larger contributions to the annual average of affected GDP. Thus, even if a province’s annual affected GDP seems small, less fre-quent and more intense events can still have large impacts.

The annual average population af-fected by earthquakes in Azerbaijan is about 200,000 and the annual av-erage affected GDP about $1 billion. The annual averages of fatalities and capital losses caused by earth-quakes are about 800 and about $200 million, respectively. The fatal-ities and capital losses caused by more intense, less frequent events can be substantially larger than the annual averages. For example, an earthquake with a 0.4 percent annual probability of occurrence (a 250-year return period event) could cause nearly 40,000 fatalities and $6 billion in capital loss (about 10 percent of GDP).

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILESEARTHQUAKEAzerbaijan

0 1 2 4 8

Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)

6

100

50

20

Affected GDP (%) for

10 and 100-year return periods

Annual average

10-year 100-year

One block = 10%

11

The rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential for greatest annual average capital losses and highest

annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital loss occurs in Baku, which is not surprising, given the eco-nomic importance of the province.

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILESAzerbaijan

EARTHQUAKEEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080

FLOODEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 The exceedance probability curves display the GDP

affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Azerbaijan had experienced a 100-year return period flood event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an esti-mated $1 billion. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from the same type of event would range from about $2 billion to about $3 billion. If Azerbaijan had experienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been about $40 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the same type of event would range from about $80 billion to about $240 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, and the increase in exposed assets.

All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from, respectively, D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and the National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), Significant Earthquake Database (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA), doi:10.7289/V5TD9V7K. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2013 US$. More information on the data and context can be found in the full publication, Europe and Central Asia Country Risk Profiles for Floods and Earth-quakes, at www.gfdrr.org/publications, or by contacting Joaquin Toro (jtoro@worldbank.org) or Dr. Alanna Simpson (asimpson1@worldbank.org). Please see the full publication for the complete disclaimer and limitations on methodology. Although GFDRR makes reasonable efforts to ensure all the information presented in this document is correct, its accuracy and integrity cannot be guaranteed.

Aff

ecte

d G

DP

(b

illi

on

s o

f $

)

EARTHQUAKEANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES

EARTHQUAKEANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS ($)

Ali Bajramly 5 Lenkoran 3

Nakhitchevan 10

Sumgait 3

Baku

10

0

Saly

any

3

Cherur 4

Sabirobad 3

Bebek 3

Utchar 2

Cherur 30Gandja 20

Sumgait 60

Bebek 20

Baku

20

0

Nak

hitc

heva

n 2

0

Sabirobad 20

Lenkoran 20

Apcheron 20

Salyany 10

Return period (years)

Probability (%)

10

10

250

0.4

50

2

100

1

50

100

300

150

200

250

2080

2015

Return period (years)

Probability (%)

10

10

250

0.4

50

2

100

1

2

1

3

4

2080

2015

12