EU & World cereal market situation
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Transcript of EU & World cereal market situation
EU & World cereal market situation
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 2
Euro/dollar exchange rate
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 3
CRUDE OIL
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 4
BALTIC DRY INDEX
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 5
EU-27 Cereal Production
258,4
8,2
57,7
7,6
312,7
98,8
48,3
111,9
62,5
140,6
65,3
9,6 9,2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
TOTAL Softw heat
Durumw heat
Barley Maize Rye Oats
Mt
2007 2008
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 6
EU 27 Balance
-6,6
2,8
9,8
-8-6-4-202468
1012
total
Mt
BALANCE 2006/2007 BALANCE 2007/2008 BALANCE 2008/2009
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 7
EU Export Commitments
5,4
0,41,5
9,4
3,1
0,3
2,8
8,3
10,8
0,6
2,8
16,1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
CommonWheat
Durum Wheat Barley total
Mt
Export 2006/2007 Export 2007/2008 Export 2008/2009
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 8
Share of EU common wheat exports
by MS /July - Oct 2008
WHEAT - Main EUR27 Exporters - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)
France46%
Germany18%
Romania12%
Hungary2%
Others1%
Sweden1%
Belgium1%
Netherlands1%
Lithuania3% Bulgaria
11%
Latvia3%
Utd. Kingdom1%
Source: Comext (common wheat)
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 9
Destination of EU common wheat exports /July - Oct 2008
WHEAT - EUR27 Exports - Countries of destination - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)
Algeria27%
Morocco17%
Pakistan13%
Senegal2%
South Africa2%
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya2%
Tunisia2%
Cameroon2%
Israel2%
Egypt3%
Ethiopia4%
Iran13%
U.A.Emirates3%
Djibouti3%
Turkey2% Senegal
1%
Yemen2%
Iraq2%
Source: Comext (common wheat)
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 10
Destination of EU durum wheat exports /July - Oct 2008
DURUM WHEAT - EUR27 Exports - Countries of destination - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)
Turkey23%
Tunisia62%
Algeria5%
Others0,6%
USA1,2%
Switzerland1,9%
Syria2,6%
Morocco1,6%
Mauritania0,8%
Source: Comext (durum wheat)
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 11
EU Import Commitments
2,8
0,8
2,3
0,2
6,6
3
1,1
7,2
2,4
13,8
3,3
0,5
2,1
0,3
6,3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
CommonWheat
DurumWheat
Maize Sorghum total
Mt
Import 2006/2007 Import 2007/2008 Import 2008/2009
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 12
Origin of EU common wheat imports/ July - Oct 2008
WHEAT - EUR27 Imports - Countries of origin - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)
Ukraine62%
USA15%
Canada12%
Others0,4%
Kazakhstan0,7%Russia
9%
Moldova0,6%
Source: Comext (common wheat)
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 13
Origin of EU wheat imports by MS /July -Sept 2008
WHEAT- Main EUR27 Importers and country of origin - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
Spain Italy Utd. Kingdom Greece Portugal
(Tonnes)
Ukraine USA Canada Russia Others
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 14
Intervention situation
5.848 T.
9.605 T.9.169 T.
400 T.
Quantities under offer"Cereals"
EU-27 : 97.831 T.
72.809 T.
Marketing year: 2008/2009
Week No.: 23
at: 7/12/2008
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 15
Intervention situation
8.500; 9%
37.906; 39%51.425; 52%
Common wheat Barley Maize
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 16
IGC– November Report Wheat Production
56,2
610
1349,4
16,6 16,3
119,7
13,9
68 6220 13
683
151
2511
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
World
Pro
duct
ionUSA
Austra
lia
Russia
Ukrai
ne
Kazak
hsta
n
Argen
tina EU
Mt
2007 2008
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 17
442 446 451
97 89119
63
171516
57 64
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
2006 2007 2008
MM
T
Seeds & Waste
Industrial
Feed
Food
World 2006: 611 mioT World 2007: 614 mioT World 2008: 650 mioT
IGC– November Report
Wheat use
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 18
IGC–November Report
Wheat
125 118
150
39 2944
683
650
610597,8
612614
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008
MM
T
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
World Ending Stocks
of which 5 major exporters
World Production
World Consumption
MM
T
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 19
Wheat export prices since 1/1/2007
168
220
315
155
115100
200
300
400
500
600
$/t
US SRW FOB GulfUS HRW FOB GulfArgentinaAustralia ASW Canada CWRS 13.5% St LawBlack Sea milling 4th gradeBlack Sea feed fob
Source: IGC
800
165
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 20
EU Wheat prices since 1/1/2007
125135
107105
155
205
255
305
€/t
Dlvd Rouen (11-12, 5%protein)Fob Hamburg (B)
UK feed FOB
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 21
Egypt: GASC official: bought 240,000 t wheat, incl. 120,000 t from Russia, at $163 fob, and 120,000 t from the EU (France), at $171 fob, for Jan shipment;
Syria put out a new tender to buy 200,000 tonnes soft wheat of any origin. Bidding deadline in the new tender is Dec 17.
Morocco put out a new tender to buy 300,000 tonnes soft wheat of any origin. Bidding deadline in the new tender is Dec 17
Pakistan put a new tender to buy 500,000 tonnes of any origin (Dec 20).
Common Wheat purchases
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 22
IGC–November Report Maize Production
47,37,4
58,620,5
787
332
63
775
91855
305
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
WorldProduction
USA Argentine Brazil EU Ukraine
Mt
2007 2008
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 23
85 86 87
469 490 475
198
30
168139
3129
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2006 2007 2008
MM
T
Seeds & Waste
Industrial
Feed
Food
World 2006: 724 mioT World 2007: 773 mioT World 2008: 790 mioT
IGC– November Report Maize use
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 24
IGC–November Report
Corn
115130
114
33,1 4129
775
790787
708
724
773
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008
MM
T
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
World Ending Stocks
of which US
World Production
World Consumption
MM
T
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 25
Maize export prices since 1/1/2007
100
150
200
250
300
350
$/t
US YC3 FOB Gulf
Argentina maize Up River
Brazillian maize
Sources: IGC
US:145Arg:138Braz:132
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 26
EU maize prices since 1/1/2007
114,65
87,17
50
100
150
200
250
300
eu
r/t
Bordeaux (FR) Budapest (HU)
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 27
IGC–November Report
Durum wheat
2,5
1,4
2,5
1,20,8
1,2
38,7
38
35
35,9
38
36
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008
MM
T
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
World Ending Stocks
of which Canada
World Production
World Consumption
MM T
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 28
Durum WheatEU Prices
Price of DURUM WHEAT (Euro/Ton)
in Italy - France - Spain
0
100
200
300
400
500
600Ju
il
Ao
ut
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec Ja
n
Fev
Mar
Avr
i
Mai
Juin
Juil
Ao
ut
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec Ja
n
Fev
Mar
Avr
i
Mai
Juin
Juil
Ao
ut
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Déc
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Eu
ro/T
Italy
France
Spain
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 29
Tunisia: 25 000 t durum in a tender for December/ $ 175 a tonne c&f.
Durum Wheat purchases
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 30
Agrometeo conditionsfor EU sowing 2009
Favorable conditions in Germany
Poor weather conditions in UK
Rain needed in some parts (RO, BG, HU, ES and GR)
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 31
Preliminary forecastsfor wheat sowing 2009
In USA : 5 %
In EU : 1.5%
In Russia : 5 %
in Ukraine : 6%
Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 32
Thank you for your attention