Cereal Advisory Committee20/06/2008

EU & World cereal market situation

CER(08)4186

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 2

EU Export Commitments

0

5

10

15

20

25

CommonWheat

Durum Wheat Barley+Malt total

Mt

Export 2005/2006 Export 2006/2007 Export 2007/2008

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 3

EU Import Commitments

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

CommonWheat

DurumWheat

Maize Sorghum total

Mt

Import 2005/2006 Import 2006/2007 Import 2007/2008

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 4

EU Wheat weekly imp/exp commitments since 01/07/2007

2932

279

385

-550

-450

-350

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

1000

t

Imports

Exports

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 5

EU Barley weekly imp/exp commitments

7

11

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

1000

t

Exports

Imports

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 6

EU Maize and sorghum weekly import commitments

442 92

8861

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Week 1

Week 3

Week 5

Week 7

Week 9

Week 1

1Wee

k 13

Week 1

5Wee

k 17

Week 1

9Wee

k 21

Week 2

3Wee

k 25

Week 2

7Wee

k 29

Week 3

1Wee

k 33

Week 3

5Wee

k 37

Week 3

9Wee

k 41

Week 4

3Wee

k 45

Week 4

7Wee

k 49

Week 5

1

1000

t

Maize Sorghum

Imports

Maize:

Sorghum:

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 7

EU Durum wheat weekly import commitments

1

60

33

11

30

58

22

38

100

61

32

4850

35

53

37

62

39

57

6

103

91

13

40

93

1319

9591

19129

4

4436

48

25

1107

28

53

17

29

6

27

5650

2

1713

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Week 1

Week 3

Week 5

Week 7

Week 9

Week 1

1Wee

k 13

Week 1

5Wee

k 17

Week 1

9Wee

k 21

Week 2

3Wee

k 25

Week 2

7Wee

k 29

Week 3

1Wee

k 33

Week 3

5Wee

k 37

Week 3

9Wee

k 41

Week 4

3Wee

k 45

Week 4

7Wee

k 49

Week 5

1

1000

t

Imports

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 8

EU 27 Balance

5,1

11,6

-8,5

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

total

Mt

BALANCE 2005/2006 BALANCE 2006/2007 BALANCE 2007/2008

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 9

EU 27 Balance sheetEU-27 Cereals balance sheet:Marketing year: 2007/2008

Common (Mio t)wheat Barley Durum Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale Others EUR 27

Beginning stocks (01.07.2007)Market 19,2 11,8 1,0 13,6 0,1 0,5 0,2 2,3 2,0 50,7Intervention 0,2 0,1 0,0 2,2 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,5

Total 19,4 11,9 1,0 15,8 0,2 0,5 0,2 2,3 2,0 53,2Usable production 111,3 57,3 8,1 47,7 7,4 0,4 8,7 9,4 5,4 255,9Import 4,7 0,3 2,0 14,5 0,1 5,5 0,0 0,0 0,2 27,3TOTAL AVAILABILITIES 135,4 69,4 11,1 78,0 7,7 6,5 8,9 11,7 7,6 336,3USE - Human 46,1 0,4 8,4 3,7 3,0 0,2 1,4 0,1 0,0 63,2 - Seed 5,4 2,9 0,9 0,4 0,7 0,0 0,6 0,5 0,4 11,7 - Industrial 7,5 9,3 0,1 5,3 0,8 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,1 23,3

o.w. bioethanol/biofuel 1,1 0,5 0,3 0,1 2,0 -Ultra peripheral islands 0,3 0,2 0,0 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,9 - Animal feed 49,4 38,3 0,4 53,5 2,7 5,8 6,0 10,0 4,9 171,0TOTAL USE 108,7 51,0 9,8 63,3 7,1 6,0 8,2 10,5 5,4 270,0Solde disponible 26,7 18,4 1,3 14,7 0,6 0,5 0,7 1,2 2,2 66,3Export (1) 11,0 6,5 0,9 1,5 0,1 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 20,2End stocks (30.06.2008)

Market 15,7 11,9 0,4 13,2 0,5 0,5 0,5 1,2 2,2 46,1Intervention 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Total 15,7 11,9 0,4 13,2 0,5 0,5 0,5 1,2 2,2 46,1Change in stocks -3,6 0,0 -0,6 -2,6 0,3 0,0 0,3 -1,1 0,2 -7,1Change in public stocks -0,2 -0,1 0,0 -2,2 -0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 -2,5

(1) Grains equivalent. *) Maize includes processed products and animal feedESTIMATED EXPORT QUANTITIES 2007/08

11,9 Mio t8,3 Mio t

juin-08

Wheat incl. durumCoarse grains

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 10

EU 27 Cereal Area

56,9

21,9

2,9

13,7

8

2,7 3

59,9

8,8

3,12,83,1

14,2

23,2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

TOTAL Softw heat

Durumw heat

Barley Maize Rye Oats

Mio

ha

2007 2008

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 11

2008Agro-meteo conditions

Generally positive

Exceptionally high temperatures at the beginning of May in northern latitudes and at the end in southern Europe. Beneficial rain in Iberian Peninsula, Tunisia and Algeria.

Unseasonal amount and unusual spatial distribution of rain: – very abundant in Iberian Peninsula and western

Mediterranean, Ukraine and Russia; – very scarce in northern latitudes and central and

eastern Mediterranean.

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 12

2008Agro-meteo conditions

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 13

Germany, the Netherlands, Baltic States – revised down due to dry conditions

Spain, Portugal, Hungary - revised up due to favorable conditions

Other countries: Good potential from previous forecast kept

2008 Yield forecasts

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 14

EU 27 Cereal Production

257,7

8,2

57,7

7,6

295,1

9,18,8

47,8

111,8

58,3

130,6

63,5

9,3 8,6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

TOTAL Softw heat

Durumw heat

Barley Maize Rye Oats

Mt

2007 2008

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 15

USDA - June ReportWheat Production

13,9

119

1616,649,4

13,1

610,8

56,314,521

140

662,9

14245466

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

World Prod

uctio

n

USA

Austra

lia

Russia

Ukraine

Kazak

hstan

Argenti

na EU

Mt

2007 2008

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 16

USDA - June Report

Source: USDA

Wheat

124,1 115,1 132,1

38,3 32,2 37,2

662,9

646,0

610,8592,0

617,1622,2

0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

500,0

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09US Marketing Year

MM

T

540,0

560,0

580,0

600,0

620,0

640,0

660,0

680,0

World Ending Stocksof which 5 major exportersWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

MM

T

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 17

USDA - June ReportMaize Production

332

789,8

21,5 587,4

48,4

298

5723,5 10

775,3

56,1

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

WorldProduction

USA Argentine Brazil EU Ukraine

Mt

2007 2008

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 18

Corn

105,5 121,0103,3

33,1 36,417,1

775,3

793,0789,8

706,7

728,0

778,9

0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

500,0

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09US Marketing Year

MM

T

660,0

680,0

700,0

720,0

740,0

760,0

780,0

800,0

World Ending Stocksof which USWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

MM

T

USDA - June Report

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 19

Wheat 2005/06 2006/072007/08

(est)2008/09

(forecast)Production 620 593 604 650Trade 110 110 105 109Consumption 624 611 612 632Stocks 137 120 112 1315 major exporters 59 39 27 38

Maize 2005/06 2006/072007/08

(est)2008/09

(forecast)Production 696 702 777 763Trade 79 87 100 90Consumption 699 721 773 786Stocks 133 114 118 95

IGC - May Report

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 20

Source: IGC

US Maize Use 2008/09

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 21

Durum Wheat

37,535,7 34,8

38,5

76,37,97,3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2005 2006 2007 2008

MT

World Total Production

World Total Imports

Source: IGC

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 22

Source: IGC

Durum Wheat SuppliesUS - Canada - EU

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 23

Wheat export prices

285378444

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Week 0

Week 3

Week 6

Week 9

Week 1

2Wee

k 15

Week 1

8Wee

k 21

Week 2

4Wee

k 27

Week 3

0Wee

k 33

Week 3

6Wee

k 39

Week 4

2Wee

k 45

Week 4

8Wee

k 51

Week 2

Week 5

Week 8

Week 1

1Wee

k 14

Week 1

7Wee

k 20

Week 2

3

$/t

US SRW FOB GulfUS HRW FOB GulfArgentinaAustralia ASW Canada CWRS 13.5% St Law

Source: IGC

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 24

Source: IGC

US Export prices

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 25

EU Wheat prices since 1/1/2007

213

215

185

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

Wee

k 1

Wee

k 3

Wee

k 5

Wee

k 7

Wee

k 9

Wee

k 11

Wee

k 13

Wee

k 15

Wee

k 17

Wee

k 19

Wee

k 21

Wee

k 23

Wee

k 25

Wee

k 27

Wee

k 29

Wee

k 31

Wee

k 33

Wee

k 35

Wee

k 37

Wee

k 39

Wee

k 41

Wee

k 43

Wee

k 45

Wee

k 47

Wee

k 49

Wee

k 51

Wee

k 1

Wee

k 3

Wee

k 5

Wee

k 7

Wee

k 10

Wee

k 12

Wee

k 14

Wee

k 16

Wee

k 18

Wee

k 20

Wee

k 22

Wee

k 24

€/t

Dlvd Rouen (11-12, 5%protein)Fob Hamburg (B)

UK feed FOB

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 26

Comparison EU prices

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

Wee

k 1

Wee

k 3

Wee

k 5

Wee

k 7

Wee

k 9

Wee

k 11

Wee

k 13

Wee

k 15

Wee

k 17

Wee

k 19

Wee

k 21

Wee

k 23

Wee

k 25

Wee

k 27

Wee

k 29

Wee

k 31

Wee

k 33

Wee

k 35

Wee

k 37

Wee

k 39

Wee

k 41

Wee

k 43

Wee

k 45

Wee

k 47

Wee

k 49

Wee

k 51

Wee

k 1

Wee

k 3

Wee

k 5

Wee

k 7

Wee

k 10

Wee

k 12

Wee

k 14

Wee

k 16

Wee

k 18

Wee

k 20

Wee

k 22

Wee

k 24

€/t

Comparison EU wheat price (blue) and maize price (pink)

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 27

Durum WheatPrices in SP and IT

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Juil

Aout

Sept Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Fev

Mar

Avri

Mai

Juin

Juil

Aout

Sept Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Fev

Mar

Avri

Mai

Juin

Juil

Aout

Sept Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Fev

Mar

Avri

Mai

Juin

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Euro

/T

ItalySpain

Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 28

Thank you for your attention