EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and ...

7/28/2019 EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and beyond?

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Free Webinar - 17 July 2013 -1-2pm

Please turn up your computer speakers or put on your

headset

You can ask questions in writing in the chat panel

EU Public Affairs Forecast until June

2014: What to expect until the end

of Barroso II and beyond?


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Free Webinar 17 July 2013 -1-2pm

Please turn up your computer speakers or put on your

headset

You can ask questions in writing in the chat panel

WELCOME to the 7th

FREE webinar


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ABOUT THE WEBINARSERIES

1


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EU Lobbying, Ethics &Transparency: "Do"-s and

"Don't"-s

Risk Regulation in the

EU: Sectors, Advocacy

and the Precautionary

Principle

Regulatory AffairsExplained: What you

must know about

implementing &delegated acts

How to Master EU

Interest Representation:The BM guide to EUlobbying best practices

7 Tips for Effective EU

Public Affairs: Practicalideas to reach the highestimpact for your issue

Digital Communication in

EU Affairs: How to masterTwitter, Linkedin & socialmedia in public affairs

EU Public Affairs Forecastuntil June 2014: What toexpect until the end ofBarroso II and beyond?


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GOOD TO KNOW

2


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Turn off your Outlook, Skype and other programs

Ask via chat in the bottom left chat box

Questions will be answered during & after the

presentation

Presentation will take approx. 40 mins, followed by Q&A

The webinar is being RECORDED

Recording & PPT will be made available within 3 days

Transcript will be available within 1 week


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SPEAKER & ORGANISER

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SPEAKER

David Earnshaw

CEO of Burson-Marsteller





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SPEAKER MODERATOR

David Earnshaw Andrs BANETH

CEO of Burson-Marsteller Director European Training Academy





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THE PRESENTATION

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E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C A T I O N SEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014:

What to expect until the end of Barroso II andbeyond?

European Training Academy, 17.07.2013

David Earnshaw
http://www.google.ch/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=xJ1aTcSt3eqGlM&tbnid=Hoqhn0I5_oACrM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://www.awcdc.net/2013/02/developing-a-social-media-presence-for-your-small-business-or-corporation/&ei=n6ZRUZyiI46e7Ab1zoHIDw&psig=AFQjCNHitqYQ4j0dxYQfzNVuGCHMZ3v7jQ&ust=1364391967606541


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Contents

The timeline

The positions The process the jigsaw puzzle

The people

Some other issues


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Last EP

plenary

session

European

political

parties

nominate

Presidential

candidates

FEBRUARY

2014

23/24 April

2014

22-25 MAY

2 JUNE 26

JUNE

EUROPEAN

ELECTIONSPENTECOST

5-9 JUNE

22/9/2013GERMAN ELECTION

ASCENSION

26-30 MAY

Constituent

meetings ofEP party

groups

1-3 JULY

EP

Constituent

session(election of

EP officer-

holders)

26-27 JUNE

EUROPEAN

COUNCIL

Nomination

of

CommissionPresident

14-17 JULY

15-18/9/2014

EP Session:

Election of

Commission

President

EP plenary

session

01/9/2014

CONFIRMATION

HEARINGS OF

COMMISSIONERS-

DESIGNATE

OCTOBER 2014

October

plenary:

investiture

of

Commission,

2014-2019

1/11/2014 - 2019

2014-2019

Commission

enters office

1/12/2014

New

President of

European

Council

enters office

Note: other first semester 2014 plenaries:

13-16/1, 3-6/2, 19-20/2, 10-13/3, 24-27/3,

7-10/4

European Youth

Event

(9/5 Strasbourg)


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The positions to fill in 2014 751 Members of the European Parliament

President of the European Commission

27 Commissioners

President of the European Council (1 December 2014)

President of the European Parliament (x 2)

Permanent President of Eurozone 20 EP Committee chairs

14 EP Vice Presidents

Political Group leaders

Secretary General of Commission? EP? (Klaus Welle for EUDelegation, Washington DC?)

President of 2015 Constitutional Convention

Non-EU positions: NATO and UN secretaries general


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The process

Article 17 TFEU

7. Taking into account the elections to the European Parliament and after having held the

appropriate consultations, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall propose t

the European Parliament a candidate for President of the Commission. This candidate shall be

elected by the European Parliament by a majority of its component members. If he does not

obtain the required majority, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, shall within one

month propose a new candidate who shall be elected by the European Parliament following the

same procedure.

The Council, by common accord with the President-elect, shall adopt the list of the other persons

whom it proposes for appointment as members of the Commission. They shall be selected, on the

basis of the suggestions made by Member States, in accordance with the criteria set out in

paragraph 3, second subparagraph, and paragraph 5, second subparagraph.

The President, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and the

other members of the Commission shall be subject as a body to a vote of consent by the European

Parliament. On the basis of this consent the Commission shall be appointed by the European

Council, acting by a qualified majority.


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The process - continued

Declaration 11 on Article 17(6) and (7)of the Treaty on European Union

The Conference considers that, in accordance with the provisions of the Treaties, the Europea

Parliament and the European Council are jointly responsible for the smooth running of the proces

leading to the election of the President of the European Commission. Prior to the decision of the

European Council, representatives of the European Parliament and of the European Council willthus conduct the necessary consultations in the framework deemed the most appropriate . These

consultations will focus on the backgrounds of the candidates for President of the Commission,

taking account of the elections to the European Parliament, in accordance with the firs

subparagraph of Article 17(7). The arrangements for such consultations may be determined, in du

course, by common accord between the European Parliament and the European Council.


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The people: Commission President

(with current positions) EPP

Enda Kenny, Taoiseach, Ireland

Vivian Reding, Vice President European Commission

Donald Tusk, PM Poland (ruled himself out 10 June 2013)

Jyrki Katainen, PM Finland

Fredrik Reinfeldt, PM Sweden

Dalia Grybauskait, President Lithuania

President Barroso

PES

Martin Schultz, President European Parliament

Helle Thorning-Schmitt, PM Denmark

Jos Luis Rodrguez Zapatero currently no major position Pascal Lamy, ex- DG, WTO

ALDE

Guy Verhofstadt, MEP leader ALDE, EP

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO Secretary General


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The incoming Commission President

Likely to be selected through a party-based and not member

state focused negotiation (note Cathy Ashton precedent

already, in 2009)

Parliamentary majority will be critical

Will be in strong position to negotiate team with PMs

A more partisan College?

Will unsuccessful candidates seek parliamentary Presidency?

Will incoming President insist on team with gender balance?

Ex-MEPs? Reding:all EU commissioners should be elected to the EP

first before being appointed to the Commission

Portfolios? Reform of Directorates General structure?


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Other people, other positions?

Radek Sikorski VPHR (but Eastern European needed for Ban-Ki Moon job)

Carl Bildt (Swedish Foreign Minister) Kristina Georgiva (Bulgaria Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid)

ALDE: Verhofstadt but complicated by Fogh Rasmussen for President of

European Council?

European Council Dk PES government to nominate a Liberal? European

Council doesnt need a nomination Tusk here perhaps? Commissioners: Kroes (age 71) for a third term? Lamy? Aubry (or French

PM?)? EU/US trade deal Lamy for trade Commissioner again?

EPP parliamentary group: Barnier to lead? Leave of absence from April

2014; how many other Commissioners on leave of absence (Reding? de

Gucht?)?

S+D parliamentary group: Swoboda retiring to national politics

consolation prize for Schultz?

NATO Sec Gen: Fratini/Pieter De Crem (Belgium)/Abdullah Gul (Turkey)?


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Already intense campaigning even for positions on lists


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Some other issues

Primaries (2019?) - but note Green initiative Manifestos

Campaigning

Candidatures the process? What process?

Hearings of Commissioners, September 2014

Ballot papers declare European party affiliation?

A single electoral register (2019?)?

Will it all be a flop?


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E V I D E N C E - B A S E D C O M M U N I C A T I O N SEVIDENCE BASED COMMUNICATIONS

THANK YOU!

If you have further questions, you can contact

David Earnshaw : [email protected]

37 Square de Meeus

1000 Brussels

Belgium

Tel: +32 2 743 66 11

Fax: +32 2 733 66 11

www.bmbrussels.eu

www.bm.com
mailto:[email protected]://www.bmbrussels.eu/http://www.bm.com/http://www.bm.com/http://www.bmbrussels.eu/mailto:[email protected]

EU Public Affairs Forecast until June 2014: What to expect until the end of Barroso II and ...

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