EU meat sectors: Current issues and perspectives Juan Fernández Martín Head of Unit "Animal...

EU meat sectors: Current issues and perspectives

Juan Fernández MartínHead of Unit "Animal Products"

DG Agriculture and Rural Development, European Commission

CLITRAVI " Supply Chain “ Working Group

Brussels, 30 September 2008

DG AGRI, European Commission – 30 September 2008 2

Bovine meat


EU beef and veal production in tonnes Evolution 1995-2007 [Source: NEWCRONOS, EUROSTAT]

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

in 1

,000

to

nn

es

EU-15 EU-10 EU-2


Beef and Veal Production in Head in 2008 ( % change Jan-Jun 2008 / Jan-Jun 2007 )

Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT

Estimates forJune : ESEstimates forJune : ES

EU 27

EU 10 EU 2

+3,9%

N / A

Tot BOV-2,5% -1,7% -1,7%

+5,6% -0,1%

Calves -2,1% +0,7% -7,2%

+47,0% -77,0%

Heifers -2,3% -2,3% -0,1%

-2,0% N / A

HEADSEU 25

+1,8% +1,9%

EU 15

Bulls +2,5%

-7,1% -7,0%

N / A N / A

-6,2%Steers

Cows -5,7% -5,3% -2,7%

-2,3% +44,9%-0,0% +0,3%

-1,8%

+3,5%

-7,5%

-3,1%

-1,1%

-3,6%

-7,7%

-3,2%

+5,4%

+0,2%

-18,9%

+0,7%+0,4%

+7,6%

-8,7%

+5,0%

+12,5%

+9,5%

-0,4%

+5,2%

-6,6%

-13,9%

-7,5%

-2,9%

+13,5%

- 20 %

- 10 %

0%

+ 10 %

+ 20 %

BE BG CZ DK DE EE GR ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

- 20 %

- 10 %

0%

+ 10 %

+ 20 %

EU : -1,7%


Beef and Veal Production in Tonnes in 2008 ( % change Jan-Jun 2008 / Jan-Jun 2007 )

Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT

- 0.7%

Estimates forJune : ESEstimates forJune : ES

Tot BOV-2,9% -2,5% -2,6%

+2,0% -6,3%

Calves -4,0% -2,8% -12,8%

+46,5% -83,4%

Heifers -2,5% -2,5% -1,3%

-2,1% N / A

Cows -5,6% -5,2% -3,8%

-1,8% +45,2%

Steers -7,5% -7,4%

N / A N / A

+1,2% +2,2%

EU 27

EU 10

EU 15

EU 2

-6,9%

+3,2% N / A

TONNESEU 25

Bulls +0,9%

-0,6%

+0,7%

-3,3%

+2,6%

-1,4%-2,6%

+1,2%

-3,9%

-8,3%

-4,9%

+5,5%

-8,6%

-21,4%

+1,4%

-2,9%

+4,9%

-16,3%

+5,6%

+7,2%

+14,8%

-6,7%

+5,9%

-9,3%

-12,5%

-7,1%

-2,9%

+10,0%

- 25 %

- 20 %

- 15 %

- 10 %

- 5 %

0%

+ 5 %

+ 10 %

+ 15 %

+ 20 %

BE BG CZ DK DE EE GR ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK - 25 %

- 20 %

- 15 %

- 10 %

- 5 %

0%

+ 5 %

+ 10 %

+ 15 %

+ 20 %

EU : -2,6%


tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %

Russia 227,842 48.5% 138,372 39.3% 145,232 50.0% 87,083 35.2% 59,696 40.3%

Switzerland 6,646 1.4% 5,027 1.4% 10,173 3.5% 14,434 5.8% 15,595 10.5%

Croatia 9,298 2.0% 14,405 4.1% 9,676 3.3% 16,448 6.7% 8,874 6.0%

Angola 20,548 4.4% 19,066 5.4% 7,947 2.7% 11,129 4.5% 129 0.1%

Nigeria 6,814 1.5% 9,628 2.7% 175 0.1% 16,174 6.5% 2,261 1.5%

EU-15/25/27 469,638 351,872 290,687 247,309 148,271

% change -8.7% -25.1% -17.4% -14.9% 8.3%

2004 2005 2006 Jan-Jul 20082007

EU exports of beef and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

DestinationsDestinations


121,324 109,640

35,18837,730

22,253 47,605

121,375132,384

308,640328,886

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Jan-Jul 07 Jan-Jul 08

Russia Nigeria Croatia

Switzerland Angola Other destinations

EU exports of beef and live animals (2):Trade figures (COMEXT)

In volume(tonnes cwe)


In value(1,000 EUR)

In value(1,000 EUR)

47,61259,696

9,0798,8747,326

15,5957,154

129

60,57461,716

136,955148,271

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000


Russia Nigeria Croatia

Switzerland Angola Other destinations


EU imports of beef and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

OriginsOriginstonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %

Brazil 334647 62.6% 348,680 61.8% 331,436 64.6% 359,721 65.5% 74,944 38.8%

Uruguay 30796 5.8% 45,821 8.1% 45,368 8.8% 39,455 7.2% 43,760 22.6%

Argentina 111316 20.8% 113,244 20.1% 82,852 16.2% 94,682 17.2% 41,483 21.5%

Australia 11783 2.2% 10,247 1.8% 12,366 2.4% 10,019 1.8% 7,091 3.7%

New Zealand 4071 0.8% 5,978 1.1% 7,173 1.4% 5,769 1.1% 7,025 3.6%

Botswana 12247 2.3% 10,359 1.8% 7,118 1.4% 13,929 2.5% 6,741 3.5%

Namibia 11623 2.2% 12,573 2.2% 8,063 1.6% 10,467 1.9% 4,354 2.3%

US 955 0.2% 832 0.1% 953 0.2% 2,767 0.5% 2,805 1.5%

Chile 544 0.1% 2,115 0.4% 2,022 0.4% 2,823 0.5% 1,000 0.5%

Switzerland 2957 0.6% 2,633 0.5% 1,979 0.4% 2,853 0.5% 963 0.5%

EU 534357 564,502 512,730 548,909 193,329

% change 5.8% 5.6% -9.2% 7.1% -42.2%

2004 2005 2006 Jan-Jul 20082007


623,289

220,864

243,087

258,769

90,690

189,793

1,074,940

815,575

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000


Brazil Argentina Uruguay Botswana Namibia

227,427

74,944

51,594

41,483

24,149

43,760

334,386

193,329

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


Brazil Argentina Uruguay Botswana Namibia

EU imports of beef and live animals (2):Trade figures (COMEXT)



In value(1,000 EUR)

In value(1,000 EUR)


EU net import of beef and live animals

45

2,2

80

40

3,0

79

44

6,2

31

40

1,2

38

43

6,3

05

42

9,4

55

39

8,2

65

49

0,8

47

51

2,7

07

53

4,3

57

56

4,5

02

51

2,7

30

54

8,9

09

19

3,3

29

1,2

63,4

29

1,1

70,9

76

1,1

19,5

92

825,3

77

1,0

28,1

12

735,7

62

597,5

88

597,5

82

480,7

54

469,6

38

351,8

72

290,6

87

247,3

09

148,2

71

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan-Jul08

To

nn

es c

we

IMPORTS EXPORTS


EU beef imports from BrazilTrade figures (COMEXT data – tonnes cwe)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

jan

v 0

5

ma

rs 0

5

ma

i 0

5

juil 0

5

se

pt 0

5

no

v 0

5

jan

v 0

6

ma

rs 0

6

ma

i 0

6

juil 0

6

se

pt 0

6

no

v 0

6

jan

v 0

7

ma

rs 0

7

ma

i 0

7

juil 0

7

se

pt 0

7

no

v 0

7

jan

v 0

8

ma

rs 0

8

ma

i 0

8

juil 0

8

Fresh Boneless

Frozen Boneless Other

Corned Beef

TOTAL


EU carcase pricesAnnual averages for 2004-2007

2004 2005 2006 2007 '07/'05 '07/'06Young bulls (A R3) 268.9 291.9 315.8 301.4 3.3% -4.6%Steers (C R3) 276.7 284.1 299.5 292.3 2.9% -2.4%Cows (D O3) 200.7 228.2 237.8 229.8 0.7% -3.4%Heifers (E R3) 278.1 293.6 314.2 314.4 7.1% 0.1%

% changein €/100 kg


Evolution in EU carcase prices (1):Carcases of adult male bovines (A/C price – €/100 kg cw)

328.2 €/100 kg

147.6 % of reference price

328.2 €/100 kg

147.6 % of reference price

Week 38 / 2008Week 38 / 2008

222

242

262

282

302

322

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

€/100 kg cwe

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

125%

130%

135%

140%

145%

2002(W27)-2006 Avg 2007 2008

% of Reference Price


Evolution in EU carcase prices (2):Carcasses of adult male bovines (in €/100 kg cw)

323,55 320,05% change y/y : + 8,9% % change y/y : + 8,7%

Price in week 38 : Average price in août 2008 :

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

2002-2006 Avg 2007 2008

Young bulls(A R3)

Young bulls(A R3)



260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

2002-2006 Avg 2007 2008

Steers(C R3)

Steers(C R3)


Evolution in EU carcase prices (3):Carcasses of adult female bovines (in €/100 kg cw)



170

190

210

230

250

270

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

2002-2006 Avg 2007 2008

Cows(D O3)

Cows(D O3)



270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

2002-2006 Avg 2007 2008

Heifers(E R3)

Heifers(E R3)


Pigmeat


Pig slaughter in the EU - 15 and EU - enlargedin 1000 Tonn

17 564 17 533 21 232 21 309 21 197 21 100 21 400 22 858 22 507

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

EU - 15 New Member States EU 27 as from 2007


Slaughter: Quarterly change compared to the same period in the previous year (EU 25/27)

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

Q1 -3.7% 2.6% 5.4% 1.4%

Q2 2.0% 1.1% 2.9% 0.1%

Q3 0.5% 0.5% 4.2% -2.8%

Q4 -0.4% 1.4% 4.7% -4.7%

Ann -0.5% 1.0% 4.3% -1.5%

2005 2006 2007/25 2008/27


Development of the Community average market price for pig carcases

115

125

135

145

155

165

175

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Pri

ce i

n E

uro

/10

0 k

g

2006 2007 2008 5 yr Avg (02-06)


Development of the Community average market price for piglets

25

30

35

40

45

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€u

ro/

pie

ce

2006 2007 2008 5 yr avg (02 - 06)


Weekly average Pigprices 2007 - 2008EU, Brazil and the US in Euro/ 100kg carcase

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51

weeks EU

US

Braz. avg

EU = w eighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meatUS = w eekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iow a-Minn. 167-187lbBR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)


Prices for slaughtered pigs minus Compound Feed costs

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ja fe mr ap ma jn jl au se oc no de

Eu

ro/ 100kg

0.000

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

Sla

ug

hte

rin

gs in

Mio

To

nn

s

Margin Feed cost PigpricesAvg Margin Slaught. Eu 15 Slaught EU 27


Prix Matières Premières

2006 - 2008

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

J uil Oct J an 07 April J uil Oct J an 08 April J uil Oct

Euro

/ to

nne

Blé tendre (EU)

Orge (EU)

Maïs (EU)

Soja (CAF)

Sons (EU)

P. d'I orge

155% P.d'I. maïs

Manioc (CAF)

C.G.F. (CAF)


World Cereals (expected) harvest (Mio T.)08/09* 07/08 % change

Total 2 195.0 2 116.7 3.7%EU 304.4 255.2 19.3%

Wheat 676.3 610.9 10.7%EU 139.4 111.6 24.9%

Corn/maïs 783.0 790.2 -0.9%EU 58.6 47.4 23.6%

Barley 149.9 133.2 12.5%EU 64.8 57.6 12.5%

Other 585.8 582.4 0.6%EU 41.5 38.5 7.8%

World Oilseed (expected) harvestTotal 417.8 388.7 7.5%Soja 238.0 218.2 9.1%Rapeseed 53.4 48.2 10.8%Sunflower 32.2 27.2 18.4%Other 94.2 95.1 -0.9%

08/09* Estimations

Cereals and Oilseed production estimationsToepfer International


Import of selected Pigmeat productsAnnual

0

20 000

40 000

2005 2006 2007 Jul. 2007 Jul. 2008

To

nn

pro

du

ctw

eig

ht

Fresh & Frozen Offals Prep & Sauss Other


Export of selected Pigmeat productsAnnual

0

400 000

800 000

1 200 000

1 600 000

2 000 000

2005 2006 2007 Jul. 2007 Jul. 2008

To

nn

pro

du

ctw

eig

ht

Fresh & Frozen Offals Prep & Sauss Other

+50%

+53%

+57%

+48%


Export comparison of Pigmeat July (2007 - 2008)

Total Jan - July 2008: 1 508 623T = +47,6%

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

Switzerland Ukraine Russia Vietnam SouthKorea

Japan China + H Kong

Other

To

nn

Jan -July 2007

Jan - July 2008


Poultry meat


Experts production forecast of Poultry Meat

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

UEBLBG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

10

00

T

2006

2007

2008


Weekly evolution of the Community

price for Broiler

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

170.00

180.00

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€u

ro/

100k

g

Avg 02 - 06 2006 2007 2008


Weekly Poultry prices in

Brazil (IEA Sao Paolo), USA and EU

50.00

75.00

100.00

125.00

150.00

175.00

year 2007 | Year 2008 |

€uro

/ 100

kg

EU Vol Frango US Vol


Margin between Feedcost and Broiler in Broiler production

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 ja mr ma jl se no

Ec

u/1

00

kg

marge

feed

broiler


Import of selected Poultry products

0

200

400

600

2005 2006 2007 Jan-Jul. 2007

Jan-Jul. 2008

1000

To

nn

s

other

Processed chicken

Salted deboned

Frozen deboned


Imports of PoultrymeatJan July (+7,1%)

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

Cro

atia

Bra

zil

Ch

ile

Arg

en

tina

US

A

Isra

el

Th

aila

nd

Oth

er

To

nn

s P

rod

wei

gh

t 2007

2008


Export of selected Poultry Products

0

200

400

600

800

2005 2006 2007 Jan-Jul. 2007 Jan-Jul. 2008

1000

To

nn

s

Other

Turkey live, carc, cuts & prep

Broiler cuts & prep

Broiler live & carc.


Export of Poultry meatJan - July (+11.9%)

0

30 000

60 000

90 000

120 000

Ru

ssia

Ukrain

e

CH

H-K

on

g

Vietn

am

Malaysia

S-A

rabia

U.A

.E

Yem

en

Ben

in

Gh

ana

Oth

er

Tonn

s P

rod

wei

ght

2008

2007

EU meat sectors: Current issues and perspectives Juan Fernández Martín Head of Unit "Animal...

Documents

Transcript of EU meat sectors: Current issues and perspectives Juan Fernández Martín Head of Unit "Animal...