Tr e n d s i n t h e t a s k c o m p o s i t i o n o f j o b s i n C e n t r a l a n d E a s t e r n E u r o p e

P i o t r L e w a n d o w s k i

B a s e d o n w o r k w i t h

W o j c i e c h H a r d y

R o m a K e i s t e r

CEE catches up in ICT but the distance to leaders is still large

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

ICT Stock per Worker relative to the US

Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland

Romania Slovakia Slovenia

Source: own calculations on Eden & Gaggl (2015) data on ICT capital stock and Eurostat data on employment

CEE recorded a shift from manual to cognitive work, but routine cognitive tasks rose

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Task intensities - the average for 10 CEE countries

Non-routine cognitive analytical

Non-routine cognitive personal

Routine cognitive

Routine manual

Non-routine manual physical

The growth of routine cognitive work distinguishes CEE from EU15

-30-20-10

0102030Austria

Belgium

Czech Rep.

Estonia

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Poland

Spain

Sweden

UK

Non-routine cognitive analytical Routine cognitive

-30

-10

10

30Austria

Belgium

Czech Rep.

Estonia

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Poland

Spain

Sweden

UK

Trends in the CEE task structure can be largely atributted to workforce upskilling and structural change

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Non-routinecognitive analytical

Non-routinecognitive personal

Routine cognitive Routine manual Non-routine manualphysical

Decomposition of task content changes in CEE10, 1998-2000 to 2011-2013

between-sector between-education between-occupation

within-occupation total estimated change total recorded change

Routine intensive occupations are ageing faster

Panel fixed effects estimation

Δ mean age of occupation i, 1998-2010

Czech Rep. Estonia Hungary Poland

Relative routine intensity in occupation i in 1998

0.94** 0.73 0.87** 0.87***

Δ share of occupation i, 1998-2010

-0.73*** -0.94** 0.04 0.22**

Because the share of young (older) workers declines (rises)

Panel fixed effects estimation on :

Δ share of workers in occupation i, 1998-2010

Czech Rep. Estonia Hungary Poland

15-29 -0.039** 0.001 -0.035*** -0.023**

30-54 0.024 -0.030 0.025* 0.010

55-64 0.022*** 0.018 0.012 0.012***

Controls for Δ share of occupations included in all regressions

Impact of relative routine intensity in occupation i in 1998

Real wage growth in jobs with high relative routine cognitive intensity was high in CEE and there was no polarisation

-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

average annual growth rate of wages (left axis) relative routine intensity in 2002 (right axis)

In the future routine cognitive tasks likely to ↘ as ICT stock ↗, technology prices ↘ and wages ↗

Piotr Lewandowski piotr.lewandowski@ibs.org.pl

www.ibs.org.pl

@ibs_warsaw