ETP modelling approach - Microsoft · 2019. 11. 27. · Long-term ETP-TIMES model for the power...
10
© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015 ETP modelling approach CHP/DHC Collaborative meeting Paris, 21 January 2016
Transcript of ETP modelling approach - Microsoft · 2019. 11. 27. · Long-term ETP-TIMES model for the power...
© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015
ETP modelling approach CHP/DHC Collaborative meeting
Paris, 21 January 2016
© OECD/IEA 2015
How we generate our scenarios
Primary energy Transformation sector End-use sectors Service demands
Global energy system today
© OECD/IEA 2015
Primary energy Transformation sector End-use sectors Service demands
Global energy system in 2050
How we generate our scenarios
© OECD/IEA 2015
End-use sectors Service demands
Hybrid model
Industry
Long-term simulation
Buildings
Mobility Model (MoMo)
Transport
Primary energy Conversion sectors
Renewables
Fossil
Nuclear
Electricity T&D
Fuel conversion
Fuel/heat delivery ETP-TIMES (bottom-up optimisation)
Final energy
Electricity
Gasoline
Diesel
Natural gas
Heat
etc. Passenger mobility Freight transport
…
Space heating Water heating
Lighting …
Material demands …
ETP model finds cost effective investment and operation of energy technologies to meet energy service demands from now to 2050
How we generate our scenarios
© OECD/IEA 2015
ETP model regions
28-region model 28-region model
© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015
Supply-side and TIMES integration CHP/DHC Collaborative meeting
Paris, 21 January 2016
Luis Munuera
© OECD/IEA 2015
Flexible uses in conversion sector
Long-term ETP-TIMES model for the power sector (and linkages with heat, fuel production, DSM)
Flexible generation
Demand side management
DSM
DSM
DSM
Potentials
Fuel costs Technical and economic
characteristics Electricity and heat demands
Load curves
Fuel demand
Generation mix New capacities
Electricity prices Average generation costs
Emissions
Electricity storage
Pumped storage
CAES
District heat storage
Process heat storage
Energy storage
© OECD/IEA 2015
Establish tranches of potential DH loads
© OECD/IEA 2015
How the collaborative could assist
Revision of technology-economic input data for CHP/district heating • Costs for heat and electricity technologies
• Performance, efficiency
• Costs for DH technology (e.g. distribution costs, heat exchangers)
Global energy investment report (recent cost tracking)
Local heat mapping studies / economics of DH with new technologies
Technology and economics of flexibility from power to heat
