Ethernet Alliance Panel #2: Bandwidth Growth and The Next ... · Total IP Traffic 2011 2.0 B 10B...
Transcript of Ethernet Alliance Panel #2: Bandwidth Growth and The Next ... · Total IP Traffic 2011 2.0 B 10B...
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© 2012 Ethernet Alliance 1
Moderator: Scott Kipp, President of the Ethernet Alliance, Brocade
Panelist #1: Vijay Vusirikala, Optical Network Architect, Google
Panelist #2: David Ofelt, Distinguished Engineer, Juniper
Panelist #3: Martin Pels, Senior Network Engineer, AMS-IX
Ethernet Alliance Panel #2:
Bandwidth Growth and
The Next Speed of Ethernet
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2 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
The views WE ARE expressing in
this presentation are our own
personal views and should not
be considered the views or
positions of the Ethernet
Alliance.
DISCLAIMER
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3 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Introduction – The Ethernet Alliance and Ethernet Speeds
Scott Kipp – Brocade and President of the Ethernet Alliance
Topic #1 – Bandwidth Drivers and Core Requirements – Large Data Center Perspective
Vijay Vusirikala - Google
Topic #2 – Bandwidth Growth and the Next Ethernet Rate
David Ofelt – Juniper Networks
Topics #3 – IXP Bandwidth Trends
Martin Pels – Amsterdam Internet Exchange (AMS-IX)
Questions and Answers
AGENDA
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4 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
• Our Mission
• To promote industry awareness, acceptance and advancement of
technology and products based on, or dependent upon, both existing
and emerging IEEE 802 Ethernet standards and their management.
• To accelerate industry adoption and remove barriers to market entry by
providing a cohesive, market responsive, industry voice.
• Provide resources to establish and demonstrate multi-vendor
interoperability.
• Activities
• Promote marketing and education awareness
• Interoperability testing and demonstration
• Industry consensus building
• Technology and standards incubation
• For more information – see www.ethernetalliance.org
A global community of end users, system vendors,
component suppliers and academia
THE ETHERNET ALLIANCE
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5 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Promote Ethernet
Expand Ethernet
Ecosystem • Support consensus
building
• Host Technology
Exploration Forums
(TEFs)
• Team with other orgs
Marketing Education
• Facilitate interop testing
• Expand the market
• Go global
Support Ethernet
Development
ETHERNET ALLIANCE STRATEGY
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6 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Informational x50 Series
Applications x20 Series
Protocols x10 Series
Physical Layer x00 Series
Ethernet 101:
Overview
Ethernet 102: The Physical
Layer Of Ethernet
Ethernet 111: 802.1:Protocols
Of Ethernet
Ethernet 121: The Applications
Of Ethernet
Ethernet 151: Ethernet
Alliance Plugfests
Ethernet 211: Data Center
Convergence
Ethernet 301: 40/100GbE Fiber
Cabling and
Migration Practices
Ethernet 202: 10GBASE-T Revamped
Ethernet 311:
Multi-tenancy
Ethernet 321: Industrial
Applications
Ethernet 231: IEEE
Projects
Ethernet 221: Ethernet
Products
Ethernet 331: Ethernet Alliance
Website
Completed and available online
Planned
Concept
UNIVERSITY OF ETHERNET
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7 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Bandwidth Assessment Report
The IEEE quantified bandwidth growth in a
new report that was released in July:
http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/index.html
A basic equation for growth is:
More
Devices
More
Bandwidth X = Bandwidth
Explosion
Users Internet
Devices
Broadband
Speeds
Total IP Traffic
2011 2.0 B 10B 9.1 Mbps 31 EB/ Month
2016 3.4B 19B 34 Mbps 110 EB/ Month
More
Users X
B = Billion, EB = Exabyte = A Billion Terabytes
Source: http://www.cisco.com/web/solutions/sp/vni/vni_forecast_highlights/index.html
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8 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
IP Traffic Growth by Access
Technology
Source: nowell_01_0911.pdf citing Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015, http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/sep11/nowell_01_0911.pdf
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9 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Data Center Growth
Compute
Network
Storage Entered the zettabyte (1 billion terabytes) era in 2010
Individual disk drives over 1 terabyte
1000 disk drive storage subsystem equals 1 Petabyte
First petaflop supercomputers in 2011
Individual servers delivering 10s of Gb/s of I/O
PCIe 3.0 supports 2 x 40GbE NICs now
Entered the 100GbE era in 2010
Individual switches have Tb/s of
bandwidth
Increased
Storage
Increased
Processing
Increased
Bandwidth + + = Bandwidth
Explosion
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10 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Energy Science Network
Bandwidth Growth
Source: http://www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/public/dec11/dart_01_1211.pdf
100 PB/
Month
in 2015
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11 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Ethernet Port Shipments Over 400 Million Ports
shipped in 2012 for
the first time!
Source: Dell’Oro Ethernet Switch Forecast Report, July 2012
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12 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Bandwidth Capacity Projections
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
100 Gigabit Ethernet
40 Gigabit Ethernet
10 Gigabit Ethernet
Gigabit Ethernet
Fast Ethernet
Eth
ern
et
Ca
pa
city S
hip
pe
d*
(M
illio
ns
of
Gb
ps)
Over 1 Billion
Gbps shipped in 2016!
Source: Dell’Oro Ethernet Switch Forecast Report, July 2012
*Ethernet capacity calculated by multiplying ports on previous page by their
bandwidth.
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13 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Standardizing Ethernet Speeds
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Lin
k S
pe
ed
(G
b/s
)
Fast Ethernet
Gigabit Ethernet (GbE)
10 GbE
40 GbE
100 GbE
400 GbE?
TbE?
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14 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
AGENDA
Introduction – The Ethernet Alliance and Ethernet Speeds
Scott Kipp – Brocade and President of the Ethernet Alliance
Topic #1 – Bandwidth Drivers and Core Requirements – Large Data Center Perspective
Vijay Vusirikala - Google
Topic #2 – Bandwidth Growth and the Next Ethernet Rate
David Ofelt – Juniper Networks
Topics #3 – IXP Bandwidth Trends
Martin Pels – Amsterdam Internet Exchange (AMS-IX)
Questions and Answers
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15
Bandwidth Drivers and Core Requirements – Large Data Center Perspective
Vijay Vusirikala For Google Network Architecture Ethernet Alliance – Sep 2012
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Network Growth and Scale Drivers
• Growth and scaling at various layers
• Datacenter connectivity, metro /edge and Longhaul/core
• Different drivers and applications for different parts of the network
• Overall growth across all segments Driving need to higher capacity fabric, client connectivity and core capacity
• Growth drivers
• Obvious ones – more users, more uses (User facing traffic)
• More bandwidth intensive applications (User facing traffic)
• Machine count and connectivity increases (M2M traffic)
16
More
Servers /
Data
Center
More Data
Centers X =
Bandwidth
Explosion
More
Bandwidth
/ Server X
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Example of Applications Driving Scale
• You Tube Growth
• 4 billion+ views a day - up over 30% in the last eight months
• 800M unique users visit YouTube each month
• 4B hours of video watched per month
• More video uploaded to YouTube in a day than all 3 major US networks broadcast in the last 3 years
• Over 72 hrs of video uploaded every minute--doubling y/y
17
Longer
views
More
formats X =
Bandwidth
Explosion More users X
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Servers • CPUs • DRAM • Disks
Racks • 40-80 servers • Ethernet switch
Clusters
Warehouse Scale Computers - Machinery
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Datacenter Optics - Overview
REACH Intra-Datacenter Campus Metro Regional LH/ULH Trans-Oceanic
MMF TECHNOLOGY SMF WDM
WDM 10G / 25G DWDM 100G coherent BPSK
FIGURE OF MERIT Cost Power
Cost Power
Cost Spectral efficiency
Reach
Interconnect Fabric
Cluster
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Google's WAN
• Two backbones
o Internet facing (user traffic)
smooth/diurnal
externally originated/destined flows
o Datacenter traffic (internal)
bursty/bulk
all internal flows
• Widely varying requirements: loss sensitivity, availability, topology, etc.
• Difference in node density, degree and geographic placement
thus: built two separate logical networks
o I-Scale
o G-Scale
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Google's Datacenter WAN
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Software Defined Optical Network
22
Wavelength
Optical Transport
Network (OTN) /Ethernet
Labels /Flows
• Static channel spacing
• Static optical channel bandwidth
• Static channel bit-rate
Layer-cake Network
Wavelength OTN /Ethernet
Labels /Flows
• Dynamic grid spacing: Flex-grid Reconfigurable OADM (ROADM)
• Dynamic channel bandwidth: Super-carriers
• Dynamic channel bit-rate
Software Defined Network
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Software Defined Network Extending to Transport Layer • Future – software-defined networking
• Single network operating system with standardized interface
• Global network view
• Optimizing for services
• Consolidated forwarding/transport layer
Datacenter Cloud
Datacenter Cloud
Datacenter Cloud
Network OS
Services
Control Plane Provisioning
Operation
Performance Monitoring
Failure Protection
Restoration
Traffic Engineering
Real-time
database
Optical Engine for
Link Design and Engineering
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25 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Introduction – The Ethernet Alliance and Ethernet Speeds
Scott Kipp – Brocade and President of the Ethernet Alliance
Topic #1 – Bandwidth Drivers and Core Requirements – Large Data Center Perspective
Vijay Vusirikala - Google
Topic #2 – Bandwidth Growth and the Next Ethernet Rate
David Ofelt – Juniper Networks
Topics #3 – IXP Bandwidth Trends
Martin Pels – Amsterdam Internet Exchange (AMS-IX)
Questions and Answers
AGENDA
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© 2012 Ethernet Alliance 26
David Ofelt
Distinguished Engineer
Juniper Networks
2012-09-17
Bandwidth Growth
and the Next Ethernet Rate
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27 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Bandwidth Growth
23 September 2012 HSE Consensus 5
Bandwidth Growth
Bandwidth Assessment Ad-hoc (BWA) Summary
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Traf
fic
rela
tive
to
20
10
val
ue
Financial sectorfit to Figure 15
CAGR = 95%
Peeringfit to Figure 39
CAGR = 64%
IP trafficFigure 2
CAGR = 32%
Sciencefit to Figure 13
ESnet 2004 to 2011CAGR = 70%
CableFigure 20
CAGR = 50%
Figure 15 NYSE historical data
Figure 39 Euro-IXhistorical data
HSSG tutorialSlide 22 coreCAGR = 58%
HSSG tutorialSlide 22 server I/O
CAGR = 36%
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28 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Datacenter Pressure
From Internet
From Servers
BOOM! Datacenter
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29 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Core Pressure
Core
BOOM!
Internet
Access
Mobile Etc
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30 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Why not LAGs?
Instead of faster links- why not just
aggregate multiple links
This is what everyone does but…
Exponential Bandwidth Growth means
Exponential Growth in numbers of links
Inefficient due to imperfect load-balancing
Limited entropy
Flows are balanced ignoring bandwidth
Large flows exist
CDN
Encrypted traffic
Opaque trunks http://www.ieee802.org/3/hssg/public/may07/muller_01_0507.pdf
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31 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Constraints
Need more bandwidth, but at what cost?
Message from 100G is that new interface
needs parity at introduction in:
Cost per Gb/s
Power per Gb/s
Density per Gb/s
Customers were willing to compromise to
save money
Ex: 10x10 “Ethernet” interface –vs- LR4
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32 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
So… what speed?
So we need a faster Ethernet, but what speed?
Question is often phrased “400GbE or 1TbE”?
This ignores cost/power/density/physics
Reality is that 1TbE is currently impractical
Forwarding Engine scales poorly
Module connector has too many signals
Practical optics not demonstrated
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33 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Standardizing Ethernet Speeds
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Lin
k S
pe
ed
(G
b/s
)
Fast Ethernet
Gigabit Ethernet (GbE)
10 GbE
40 GbE
100 GbE
400 GbE?
???
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34 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
400GE
400GbE looks practical and useful
Industry producing dense 100GE engines
Good building blocks
802.3ba MAC and PCS
802.3bj FEC and EEE framework
Potentially enhancements from 802.3bm
Optical building blocks from 100GE roadmap
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35 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Introduction – The Ethernet Alliance and Ethernet Speeds
Scott Kipp – Brocade and President of the Ethernet Alliance
Topic #1 – Bandwidth Drivers and Core Requirements – Large Data Center Perspective
Vijay Vusirikala - Google
Topic #2 – Bandwidth Growth and the Next Ethernet Rate
David Ofelt – Juniper Networks
Topics #3 – IXP Bandwidth Trends
Martin Pels – Amsterdam Internet Exchange (AMS-IX)
Questions and Answers
AGENDA
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37
What is an
Internet Exchange Point? Formal definition: “A physical (Ethernet based) network
infrastructure operated by a single entity whose purpose it
is to facilitate the exchange of internet traffic between
Internet Service Providers. There must be a minimum of
three ISPs connected.”
Purpose:
– Save on (transit-) cost
– Optimize IP data path between providers
(keep local traffic local)
– Simplify interconnection between many providers
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38
Soon to be affiliated IXPs
Euro-IX affiliated IXPs
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39
European IXP traffic
Peak traffic increase of 33% per 12 months
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40
5 year peak projection
12 times increase of IXP peak traffic between December
2006 and December 2011
Exponential trend suggests 90 Tbps in 2016
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41
About AMS-IX
Non-profit association, founded in 1997
515 connected ASNs, 991 customer ports
Metro Ethernet platform
MPLS/VPLS architecture
GE, 10GE, and 100GE connections
– Aggregated links
– Lower speed connections via resellers
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Topology
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Traffic
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Traffic
Peak traffic: 1.73 Tbps
Daily traffic volume: 10.8 Pbyte/day
Traffic doubling every ~2.5 years (30%/year)
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Ports
>70% of 10GE ports in aggregated links
Largest aggregate: 16*10GE
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100GE @ AMS-IX
Two customers connected (using MSA 10x10-2km)
24 100GE connections in backbone
– 16 of which in aggregates of 2x100GE
Metro transport (<40km):
– In-house design based on 100GE-LR4 + SOA
– Proprietary solution: MSA 10x10 + ADVA WDM
(4x100GE over single fiber)
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Our wishlist
Double density 100GE (CFP2/4) in 2013/2014
16*100GE over single fiber (<40km)
400GE in 2015
– If economically feasible (max 2.5*100GE)
Terabit Ethernet: ~2020
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Summary
IXP traffic is growing at a high rate
10GE aggregation > 10*10GE
100GE adoption slowly picking up
– Link aggregation used almost from day 1
400GE desirable, but needs to be cost-efficient
Need for Terabit Ethernet is expected
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49 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
DISCUSSION/Q&A
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50 © 2012 Ethernet Alliance
Thank you