ETF Technical Analysis and Forex Technical Analysis Chart Book for August 15 2011

8/6/2019 ETF Technical Analysis and Forex Technical Analysis Chart Book for August 15 2011

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The market opened higher and rallied even higher through the day as stocks on sale were grabbed by traders and inves-

tors. Part of the reason for rally was the lack of any scary news from Europe and optimism over the Merkel-Sarkozy meet-

ing tomorrow. Add that to the temporary stay on shorting bank stocks in Europe and you can see why traders felt a back-

stop was in the market. While the ECB bought Euro sovereign debt investors in America put money to work. The rally

channel is narrow which makes me believe it will be short lived but that is no reason to believe we are headed for prior

lows. If the ECB and European politicians can maintain confidence that the banking system will survive stocks have rea-

sons to rally such as strong earnings and accommodative monetary policy. The analysis is for educational purposes only

and not a solicitation to buy or sell any security at any time. The comments are made in the context of ETF position trad-ing and Forex position trading. Visit my technical analysis blog for more information at http://www.sealionllc.com

No news is good news and no Shorts allowed

Chart #1SPY, SPDR S&P 500

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ners there as well.

This chart book is for educational purposes only and not a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

08/15/2011Volume 1, Issue 20

Sea Lion Capital Management LLC

Chart Book

Chart Notes

Possible lower high with shooting star

candle

Prices are now above the median line of the

bullish channel and have found short-term

resistance.

Prices rally through resistance and out of the

channel. A consolidation will be required

before the next move up.

No consolidation yet as prices are rising along

channel resistance.

Prices retreat to prior resistance now support

for consolidation

Prices testing lower channel support and needto reverse quickly to maintain the rally

Prices could be back testing setting up a move

lower but more likely the channel nee ds to be

redrawn or this is a temporary noisy over-

shoot.

Prices have no violated the channel support

and are trying a back test. The back looks

weak in nature.

Prices have broken through the channel and

head lower gyrating around their median line.

Prices have exceeded their channel but

consolidated and stopped under prior channel

support. This bull trap will reverse shortly.

Prices under old support line from prior

channel and at resistance of redrawn channel.

With resistance tested and in place prices

have moved lower and begin their move to the

bottom of the channel.

Prices move aggressively half way across the

channel and are driving toward channel

bottom.

Prices reached channel bottom and have

bounced. The hammer bottom should hold

and prices should rise from here.

Prices are gyrating sideways and forming a

base from which they can bounce. The

bounce may be short lived.

Prices overshot channel and horizontal

support but another hammer should start

the rally back across the channel.

The bottom is in. The inverted head and

shoulders pattern is complete and prices have

taken out the highs of the consolidation.

Rally has comes swiftly and may leave just as

quickly. I am keeping this momentum on a

short leash.
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Page 2 Sea Lion Capital Management LLC

Prices have bounced with an inverted head and shoulders bottom and moved higher. This will

serve as the near term low and prices should recapture positive momentum. The political concerns

have distorted the market in the short term moving prices beyond any rational trend. With atten-

tion on the sovereign debt issue diminishing attention will return to micro issues such as earnings

performance and an accommodative federal reserve.

Chart #2IWM, iShares Russell 2000 Chart Notes: Possible change in trend needs confirma-

tion with a new high.

Prices are now in the upper half of the

bullish channel and have more room torun.

Prices have continued up and no extend

beyond the channel. Prices will need toconsolidate before the next leg higher.

Prices rising along resistance.

A return to former resistance now turned

support. A mild consolidation has begun.

Testing the median line. Pri ce often finds

support here.

Prices found support at the median line

and are poised to move higher.

Prices are holding their channel support

and a bounce may occur.

Prices have broken channel support and

are falling around the median line.

Price have stopped at channel resistance

but need to reverse to maintain the

downtrend channel.

Prices at the apex of old support now

resistance and the current channel

resistance. Prices will reverse soon.

Prices failed to hold their afternoon rally

and are now moving lower.

Prices gapped lower and may now

challenge the lower portion of the

channel.

Having found the bottom of the channel

and bounced with a hammer prices

should rise from here in the near term.

Prices are bouncing around support and

forming the base necessary to move

higher.

Prices put in another hammer ad tiis one

should stick and prices should move higherfrom here

The bottom is in. An inverted head and

shoulders pattern is complete and the

highs of the consolidation have been takenout.

Rally has comes swiftly and may leave justas quickly. I am keeping this momentum

on a short leash.
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Page 3Volume 1, Issue 20

Prices are lower and now sit at the median line. A short term bounce is ongoing but prices will go

lower. Pessimism over the Euro zone will continue to weigh on the pair.

Chart# 3EUR/USD, Eurodollar Chart Notes: Markets bullish trend broken with

violation of prior swing low.

Markets bounces and reverses but puts in

a lower high.

Market retests $1.40 low and if it holds a

sideways channel is in place.

Prices reverse on support in an evening

star reversal in a show of strength and

the markets wiliness to be open to risk.

Prices have failed to advance the reversal

and are now below the reversal high. A

retest of lower channel support looks

likely.

Prices made a dead-cat bounce and will

head lower to range support.

Prices have edged higher but are still

below the median line and are poised to

reverse.

Prices rallied just short of the prior high

and have begun to possibly reverse. A

reversal would correlate with a downturn

in equities.

The Euro strengthens against a weak

dollar and mild concern over the U S debt

ceiling crisis. Prices will reverse shortly.

Prices reversed hard today and a new

downtrend has begun.

Prices paused in their move down but this

is temporary as the next moves are lower.

Prices finished lower but have not closed

lower than the lows of last week. A

break of the median line will accelerate

the selloff.

Watch for a short term bounce at the

median line before prices continue lower.

Prices have returned to the media line

with the focus off the US debt ceiling and

squarely on Ital y and Spain. Lower Euro

will continue.

Price continues to dance along the

median line. As near term momentum

continues to slow it will setup the next

more dramatic move to the downside.

Prices have bounced on the media line

but no significant new high was made.

Lower prices ahead.
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ETF Technical Analysis and Forex Technical Analysis Chart Book for August 15 2011

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