ETF Technical Analysis and Forex Technical Analysis Chart Book for August 12 2011

8/6/2019 ETF Technical Analysis and Forex Technical Analysis Chart Book for August 12 2011

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The market roller coaster took a break on Friday as markets reconsidered the assumptions made over the last week about

European bank and the US economy. While traders and investors are right to be questioning the sustainability of European

banks and the growth of the US economy they chose to ignore any possibility of reasonable resolution. Confidence in the

wisdom and capabilities of institutions and leaders vanished until today where investors and traders found themselves

feeling better about the near term and even hopeful that the future may resolve positively. Continued strong corporate

earnings and a lack of news flow contributed to the improved sentiment. We forecast the market to rebound from here

but how far we cannot say. For now a bottom is in place. The analysis is for educational purposes only and not a solicita-

tion to buy or sell any security at any time. The comments are made in the context of ETF position trading and Forex po-sition trading. Visit my technical analysis blog for more information at http://www.sealionllc.com

The fear subsides but will it stay this way?

Chart #1SPY, SPDR S&P 500

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ated. Visit our website www.sealionllc.com for more ETF technical analysis, Forex technical analysis

and thoughts on ETF position trading and Forex position trading. We maintain a technical analysis

blog and demonstrate ETF expertise and Forex expertise. You can get more information on our part-

ners there as well.

This chart book is for educational purposes only and not a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

08/12/2011Volume 1, Issue 19

Sea Lion Capital Management LLC

Chart Book

Chart Notes

Possible lower high with shooting star

candle

Prices are now above the median line of the

bullish channel and have found short-term

resistance.

Prices rally through resistance and out of the

channel. A consolidation will be required

before the next move up.

No consolidation yet as prices are rising along

channel resistance.

Prices retreat to prior resistance now support

for consolidation

Prices testing lower channel support and needto reverse quickly to maintain the rally

Prices could be back testing setting up a move

lower but more likely the channel nee ds to be

redrawn or this is a temporary noisy over-

shoot.

Prices have no violated the channel support

and are trying a back test. The back looks

weak in nature.

Prices have broken through the channel and

head lower gyrating around their median line.

Prices have exceeded their channel but

consolidated and stopped under prior channel

support. This bull trap will reverse shortly.

Prices under old support line from prior

channel and at resistance of redrawn channel.

With resistance tested and in place prices

have moved lower and begin their move to the

bottom of the channel.

Prices move aggressively half way across the

channel and are driving toward channel

bottom.

Prices reached channel bottom and have

bounced. The hammer bottom should hold

and prices should rise from here.

Prices are gyrating sideways and forming a

base from which they can bounce. The

bounce may be short lived.

Prices overshot channel and horizontal

support but another hammer should start

the rally back across the channel.

The bottom is in. The inverted head and

shoulders pattern is complete and prices have

taken out the highs of the consolidation.
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Page 2 Sea Lion Capital Management LLC

Prices have bounced with an inverted head and shoulders bottom and moved higher. This will

serve as the near term low and prices should recapture positive momentum. The political concerns

have distorted the market in the short term moving prices beyond any rational trend. With atten-

tion on the sovereign debt issue diminishing attention will return to micro issues such as earnings

performance and an accommodative federal reserve.

Chart #2IWM, iShares Russell 2000 Chart Notes: Possible change in trend needs confir-

mation with a new high.

Prices are now in the upper half of the

bullish channel and have more room to

run.

Prices have continued up and no extend

beyond the channel. Prices will need to

consolidate before the next leg higher.

Prices rising along resistance.

A return to former resistance now

turned support. A mild consolidation

has begun.

Testing the median line. Price often

finds support here.

Prices found support at the median line

and are poised to move higher.

Prices are holding their channel support

and a bounce may occur.

Prices have broken channel support and

are falling around the median line.

Price have stopped at channel resis-

tance but need to reverse to maintain

the downtrend channel.

Prices at the apex of old support now

resistance and the current channel

resistance. Prices will reverse soon.

Prices failed to hold their afternoon

rally and are now moving lower.

Prices gapped lower and may now

challenge the lower portion of the

channel.

Having found the bottom of the channel

and bounced with a hammer prices

should rise from here in the near term.

Prices are bouncing around support and

forming the base necessary to move

higher.

Prices put in another hammer ad tiis

one should stick and prices should move

higher from here

The bottom is in. An inverted head and

shoulders pattern is complete and thehighs of the consolidation have been

taken out.
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Page 3Volume 1, Issue 19

Prices are lower and now sit at the median line. A short term bounce is possible but prices will go

lower. Pessimism over the Euro zone will continue to weigh on the pair.

Chart# 3EUR/USD, Eurodollar Chart Notes: Markets bullish trend broken with

violation of prior swing low.

Markets bounces and reverses but puts

in a lower high.

Market retests $1.40 low and if it holds

a sideways channel is in place.

Prices reverse on support in an evening

star reversal in a show of strength and

the markets wiliness to be open to risk.

Prices have failed to advance the

reversal and are now below the reversal

high. A retest of lower channel support

looks likely.

Prices made a dead-cat bounce and

will head lower to range support.

Prices have edged higher but are still

below the median line and are poised to

reverse.

Prices rallied just short of the prior high

and have begun to possibly reverse. A

reversal would correlate with a down-

turn in equities.

The Euro strengthens against a weak

dollar and mild concern over the US

debt ceiling crisis. Prices will reverse

shortly.

Prices reversed hard today and a new

downtrend has begun.

Prices paused in their move down but

this is temporary as the next moves are

lower.

Prices finished lower but have not

closed lower than the lows of last

week. A break of the median line will

accelerate the selloff.

Watch for a short term bounce at the

median line before prices continue

lower.

Prices have returned to the media line

with the focus off the US debt ceiling

and squarely on Ital y and Spain. L ower

Euro will continue.

Price continues to dance along the

median line. As near term momentum

continues to slow it will setup the next

more dramatic move to the downside.
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ETF Technical Analysis and Forex Technical Analysis Chart Book for August 12 2011

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