Estimating Mercury Emissions from Forest Fires, Lakes ... · lakes, regional and local sources...
Transcript of Estimating Mercury Emissions from Forest Fires, Lakes ... · lakes, regional and local sources...
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Estimating Mercury Emissions from Forest
Fires, Lakes, Regional and Local Sources
Using Measurements from Milwaukee, WI
LADCO Meeting: “Mercury in the Midwest”
Indianapolis, IN, 20-21 August 2015
Benjamin de Foy
Saint Louis University
http://www.iasaglobal.org/images/iasa/Stlouis.jpg
RD 83455701
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Inverse Modeling:Mercury in Milwaukee
Gaseous Elemental Mercury:
Local urban sources, Ohio River Valley + regional sources, Forest fires, Lake outgassing
Reactive Mercury:Direct emissions, Free troposphere
transport, Different oxidation pathways
B. de Foy, J. Heo, and J.J. Schauer, “Estimation of direct emissions and atmospheric processing of reactive mercury using inverse modeling,”
Atmospheric Environment, 2014.
B. de Foy, C. Wiedinmyer, J.J. Schauer, “Estimation of mercury emissions from forest fires, lakes, regional and local sources using measurements in
Milwaukee and an inverse method,” Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 2012.
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Speciated Mercury Measurements in Milwaukee
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NEI / TRI 2002 Mercury Inventory
lb/year
TRI only
TRI = 2*NEI
TRI = NEI
TRI = 0.5*NEI
NEI only
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TRI 2010/2002 Mercury Inventory
lb/year
2010 only
2010 = 2*2002
2010 = 2002
2010 = 0.5*2002
2002 only
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Lake Surface Emissions of Gaseous Elemental Mercury
28 June 2004 – 11 May 2005
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Forest Fire Inventory from FINN (Fire INventory from NCAR)
June 04 – May 05
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Inverse Modeling
Textbook Intro: “Parameter Estimation and Inverse Problems” by Aster, Borchers and Thurber
Graphical Intro: “A Conceptual Introduction to Geophysical Inversion” by Andy Ganse, U. Washington
Cause: xEg. Emissions
Effect: yEg. Concentrations
Inverse Problem: x = H-1y
Forward Simulation: y = Hx
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Forward Trajectories, Chlor-Alkali PlantWRF-Flexpart, 8 July 2004 00:00
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Backward Trajectories, MilwaukeeWRF-Flexpart, 8 July 2004 00:00
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Backward Gridded Trajectories on a Polar Grid Residence Time Analysis (Surface layer)
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Emission
Models
Inverse Model
FINN Biomass
Burning
Lake
Emissions
Biomass
Burning
Posterior
Emissions
3D Models
“y” vector
“H” matrix
“x” vector
Least-
Squares
Inversion
Polar Grid
WRF
Meteorology
CAMx
Forward
Simulations
FLEXPART Back
Trajectory Grids
Bo
ots
tra
p
Ra
nd
om
iza
tio
n
Concentration
Time Series
Area
Emissions
Lake Surface
Emissions
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Inverse Modeling: Bayesian Formulation Simplifies to Least-
Squares Inversion when Error Covariances are Diagonal
Bayesian Formulation:
Simplifies to:
Solution in a single step of least-squares:
B. de Foy, C. Wiedinmyer, J.J. Schauer, “Estimation of mercury emissions from forest fires, lakes, regional and local sources using measurements in Milwaukee and an inverse method,”
Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 2012.
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Inverse Model of Gaseous Elemental Mercury in Milwaukee
and Contributions from Different Source Groups
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Gridded Emissions of Gaseous Elemental Mercury
Estimated from Back-Trajectories
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Gridded Emissions of
Gaseous Elemental Mercury
From Different Inventories
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Inverse GEM Emissions
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Scaling Factors on GEM Emissions from Lake Outgassing and
Forest Fires by Geographical Sector
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Source Group Impacts on Gaseous Elemental Mercury in Milwaukee
Based on CAMx Simulations and Back-Trajectories
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Source Group
Impacts on GEM
in Milwaukee
Based on CAMxSimulations and
Back-Trajectories(pg/m3)
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Reactive Mercury:
Need to Include Time Series to Represent Oxidation
Pathways
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CAMx Chemical Mechanism for Mercury Oxidation
CAMx Mercury Reactions with O3, H2O2, OH:
CAMx Mercury Reactions with Bromine:
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Time Series of Measured and Inverse Reactive Mercury
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Gridded Emissions of Speciated Mercury
Compared with TRI and NEI
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Contributions to Reactive Mercury in Milwaukee
Uncertainty Analysis using Bootstrapping
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Mercury Associated with Different Source Groups
and Oxidation Pathways (%)
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Source Attribution of Reactive Mercury:
Current Inverse model suggests that a greater fraction is directly emitted compared to previous modeling studies
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Inverse Modeling:Mercury in Milwaukee
Gaseous Elemental Mercury:
Local urban sources, Ohio River Valley + regional sources, Forest fires, Lake outgassing
Reactive Mercury:Direct emissions, Free troposphere
transport, Different oxidation pathways
B. de Foy, J. Heo, and J.J. Schauer, “Estimation of direct emissions and atmospheric processing of reactive mercury using inverse modeling,”
Atmospheric Environment, 2014.
B. de Foy, C. Wiedinmyer, J.J. Schauer, “Estimation of mercury emissions from forest fires, lakes, regional and local sources using measurements in
Milwaukee and an inverse method,” Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 2012.