ESTIMATING FUTURE FIRST CYCLE SCHOOL

ENROLMENTS FOR GHANA

by

David Joe Achanfuo-Yeboah

A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Demography at the Australian

National University

Canberra, January 1983

D E C L A R A T I O N

Except where otherwise indicated, this

thesis is my own work.

(David Joe Achanfuo-Yeboah)

January, 1983

iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I am very grateful to many people for their help in the writing of

the thesis. I am particularly grateful to my supervisor, Dr S.K. Jain,

for his unique and unparalleled interest in this work, advice and help with

the computer. I am also very grateful to Dr G.W. Jones for his personal

interest and informal advice during the writing of the thesis. I am indebted to Mrs Chris McMurray for her advice with regard to language, Mrs Jennie

Widdowson for her help with the computer and Mrs Sylvia Boyle for typing the

thesis.

I am most grateful to the Ghana Education Service and the Scholarships

Secretariat of Ghana for nominating me for the Australian Government award

which enabled me to study here. I thank the Australian Development Assistance

Bureau, especially the staff of the A.C.T. Regional Office, for sponsoring my

studies and for their assistance in several other ways.

Finally, I am very grateful to my wife, Adofoa, and to my sons Oheneba

Achanfuo and Nana Tekyi for enduring the pain of neglect of family associated

with research work, and for their support - physical, moral, spiritual and

otherwise - to them I say 'AYEKOO'.

I wish to stress that these people, helpful as they have been, are in

no way responsible for the shortcomings of this study and I fully accept the

blame for its failings.

iv

ABSTRACT

Education has been one of the priority areas in Ghana's development

program, and efforts have been made to provide educational facilities for as

many children of school age as possible with regard to the country's human

and financial resources. This has resulted in rapid increases in school

enrolments, especially in the period 1960-61 to 1978-79, when primary school

enrolments increased by 194%. Despite these high increases, 30% of the

children of school age were not in school during the period 1970-75. Ghana's

educational system is also characterised by sex and areal differentials in

enrolment and inefficiency as is evident from the high dropout and unemployment

rates among 1st Cycle (primary and middle) school graduates.

Ghana's rapid population growth, inherent in the existing high fertility

and falling mortality, has tended to produce more children of school age than

the educational system can absorb. Ghana's population will increase by at

least 5.3 million by 1990 and at least 2.4 million children will require

primary education at this time. There will be, at least, 1.9 million and 1.1

million children in primary and middle school respectively by 1990. Even so,

at least 0.4 million children will not have access to primary education in 1990.

The projections also indicate that Ghana will require at least

66,658 and 35,323 teachers for the primary and middle schools respectively

in 1990. Again at least 14,249 and 8,859 primary and middle school respectively

will be required by 1990, while capital and recurrent expenditure on primary

and middle schools will increase at least from US$9,285,000 and US$4,749,000

in 1970 to $88,037,000 and $88,911,000 for the two levels respectively by

1990.

V

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PageAcknowledgements................................................. i ü

Abstract.........................................................List of Tables ................................................. v^

List of Appendices ............................................. -*-x

Chapter 1. Introduction

1.1 The Importance of Education in Ghana 1

1.2 Aims and Scope of the Thesis 31.3 Sources of Data 5

1.4 Methodology of the Study 51.5 Limitations of the Research ..................... 61.6 Brief History of Education in Ghana ............. 71.7 General Information about Ghana ................. 8

Chapter 2. Review of Relevant Literature

2.1 Review of Methodology for Estimating FutureSchool Enrolments ............................. 10

2.2 Review of Empirical Studies in the Field of Inquiry 11

2.3 Some Methodological and Empirical Problems •• •• 13

2.4 Examination of Factors Affecting School Enrolments 15

2.5 Conclusion ..................................... 17

Chapter 3. The Educational System of Ghana

3.1 Aims and Objectives of Education in Ghana .. .. 183.2 Ghana Ministry of Education ..................... 19

3.3 A Comparison of the Present Structure and Contentof Education in Ghana and the Proposed New System 20

Page3.4 School Statistics for Ghana .................... 22

Chapter 4. Population Projections for Ghana, 1970-1990

4.1 Evaluation and Adjustment of Data ............... 30

4.2 Assumptions Underlying the Population Projections 33

4.3 Population Projections for Ghana 41

Chapter 5. Future First Cycle School Enrolments

5.1 Assumptions underlying the Projection of theSchool Population ............................. 49

5.2 Projected First Cycle School Enrolments for Ghana 52

5.3 Policy Implications of the Projected School-agePopulation and School Enrolments ............ 56

Chapter 6. Summary and Conclusion6.1 S u m m a r y ........................................... 616.2 Conclusion ....................................... 63

Bibliography 69

vi

Appendices 77

vii

LIST OF TABLES

Table Page2.1 Enrolment Projections for Primary One,

1974-75 to 1979-80 ..................................... 12

3.1 First Cycle School Enrolments in Ghana,

1960-61 to 1978-79 ..................................... 24

3.2 Proportion of Pupils Enrolled in First CycleSchools by Sex, 1960-61 to 1978-79 24

3.3 Rural-Urban Differentials in Enrolment by Sex:Ghana, 1970 (%) ......................................... 25

4.1 Age and Sex Ratios for the Ghana 1970 Observed Population 30

4.2 Sex Ratios for the 1970 Graduated Population of Ghana .. 324.3 Age Ratios for the 1970 Graduated Population of Ghana .. 334.4 Estimated and Recorded Crude Birth Rates for Ghana .. .. 344.5 Estimated Levels of Crude Death Rate for Ghana and

Cape Coast Project ..................................... 38

4.6 Assumed T.F.R. in Ghana, 1970-1990 434.7 Assumed Life Expectancy at Birth in Ghana, 1970-1990 .. .. 434.8 Recorded and Projected Populatio'n of Ghana, 1970-1990

(Both Sexes)............................................. 444.9 Projected Primary (6-12 Years) and Middle (13-16 Years)

School-age Populations 1975-1990 45

4.10 Projected Urban and Rural Population of Ghana, 1975-1990 46

4.11 Projected Urban and Rural Primary School-age Population(6-12 Years) 1975-1990 (Both Sexes) ...................... 47

viii

Table Page

4.12 Projected Urban and Rural Middle School-age

(13-16 Years) Population, 1975-1990 (Both Sexes) .. .. 485.1 Projected Primary and Middle School Enrolments

for Ghana (Both Sexes) 1975-1990 535.2 Projected School Enrolments by Grade for Ghana, 1975-1990

(Both Sexes) , Series 2B 55

5.3 Recorded and Projected Recurrent and Capital

Expenditure on First Cycle Education in Thousands

of U . S . $ ............................................... 60

ix.

Appendix

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

4.1

4.24.34.45.1

5.2

5.3

LIST OF APPENDICES

Title

School Enrolments in Ghana, 1960-61 to 1978-79 (Both Sexes) ........................

Distrubtion of Ghana Primary School Pupils by Sex 1960-61 to 1978-79

Distribution of Ghana Middle School Pupils by Sex 1960-61 to 1978-79 .........

Increase in Primary School Enrolment by Grade and Sex

Total Enrolment in Primary and Middle Schools by Grade Retention and Dropout Rates .............

Whipple s Index for the 1970 Observed Population of Ghana .........

1970 Graduated Male Population of Ghana .........1970 Graduated Female Population of Ghana

Population Projections for Ghana, 1970 to 1990Projected Rural and Urban Primary School Enrolments, 1975 to 1990 ..

Projected Rural and Urban Middle School Enrolments, 1975 to 1990 .........................

Observed and Estimated Proportions Qf Pupils in Each Grade .............

Page

77

78::

7980

81

82

838485

86

87

88

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 The Importance of Education in Ghana

In recent times, education has become a major element in economic

development in less developed countries which abound with human resources. As Bairoch (1970 cited in Achanfuo-Yeboah, 1980:1) explained, if the take off in the developed countries was able to get underway without being handicapped by the low level of literacy of the population, it was because conditions were different. Industrial technique was largely improvised and based on simple empirical grounds. Today Science plays

an overwhelming part in technology, and thus in economic and industrial life. For this reason, the levels of literacy and education have a

much greater impact now than in the last three decades and much emphasis

has rightly been placed on education in Ghana.

According to the 1975-80 five-year development plan for Ghana, the

crucial role that education plays in the social, cultural and economic

development of the country must be stressed: "In a developing country

like Ghana, human resources constitute major resources which have to be

developed fully in order to assure their fullest and most productive

utilisation in all aspects of nation building" (Ghana Ministry of Economic Planning, 1977: 291). Ghana's first Minister of Education stated in 1951

that "education is the keystone of a people's life and happiness", and

that it was the "wish of his government to provide a measure of education

2

for every child of school-going age" (McWilliam, 1962: 83). Education is

important in Ghana both as an investment in human capital and as a consumer

good (Ghana Ministry of Economic Planning, 1977: 291). As a direct investment

in human capital, as outlined in the 1975-80 five-year development plan for

Ghana, education is the principal instrument for providing the skills required

by the economy and also for improving the overall levels of the efficiency,

productivity, technological and managerial performance of the labour force.

As a consumer good, education improves the quality of life of individuals by

giving them access to new dimensions both within and outside their own

environment, and makes life more meaningful to them. In this regard, the

Ghana Ministry of Economic Planning (1977; 291) states that "a minimum basic

level of educational opportunities for consumptive purposes, as well as a

base upon which further development could be planned, must be accepted in

any development strategy of the country."

Also, from a purely demographic point of view, education is important

for its effects on fertility, mortality and morbidity. The United Nations

(U.N.) Economic Commission for Africa (1980: 9) writes: "The provision of

education is important since education in the long run, will contribute

towards a reduction in fertility. There is a need to introduce reforms that

will make education readily available to all segments of the society,

especially to women in order to free them from traditional roles, and

prepare them for productive economic roles." This is particularly important

in Ghana, where there is a direct governmental attempt to reduce

fertility, mortality and morbidity.

It is, therefore, a matter of course that education takes a sizeable

proportion of the budget. In the 1970-71 academic year, for example, education

utilised 64% of the money voted for Social Services in the budget (Ghana Ministry

of Education, 1973: 158), while its proportion in the G.D.P. in 1968 was 4.1%

(Ghana Ministry of Education, 1973: 159). As far as the Ghana Government is

3

concerned, a solid, strong and very effective educational base is a

prerequisite for economic development, as indicated in the 1975-80 five- year development plan.

1.2 Aims and Scope of the Thesis

1.2.1 The Problem and Rationale behind the Study

The now widely accepted importance of human resources in a country's

development cannot be over-emphasised. Hodder (1968) explained that the

development of a nation depends not only on its natural resources but equally

or more so on its human resources. It is becoming increasingly imperative

for developing countries to strive to develop fully their human resources, both qualitatively:and quantitatively, and to ensure that they derive maximum

gains from their manpower. While statesmen and economists believed initially that the phase of development was primarily a matter of capital inputs, it soon became clear, as noted by Ginzberg and Smith (1967, cited in Achanfuo- Yeboah, 1980: 1) that the competence and skill of a nation's people are important in determining the rate of development. Education is the surest way by which a country can fully utilise its human resources.

It is, therefore, of ultimate importance to have good and reliable data on the number of people being educated at any particular time. In most developing countries, there is a serious lack of reliable basic statistics

on current and future school enrolments and Ghana is no exception. The

problem, therefore, is how to get good and reliable data on future school enrolments in Ghana, so as to enable the country to plan for the best

utilisation of its people; a good knowledge of the likely future trends of

school enrolments is also necessary to enable the country to plan towards making

the necessary resources available to educate the children. Most of the educatonal plans made in developing countries have failed because of this lack of data. The Statistics Unit of the Ghana Education Service collects school

4

statistics at all levels but very little effort has been made to estimate future school enrolment. The only school enrolment projections available

at the Planning Division are those of the United Nations Economic, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (U.N.E.S.C.O.), even though Gaisie and de Graft

Johnson (1976) also estimate future school-age population. There is therefore

the need to have new estimates of future school enrolments for Ghana, hence

the rationale behind this study.It is hoped that the present study will fill some of the gaps in these

data and thus have relevance for future educationl policy formulation and

manpower development in Ghana. In a country where education, at least primary and Middle School or junior Secondary education (1st Cycle) is considered a

right and not a privilege, it is necessary to know how many children will be

in school in future.

1.2.2 The Objectives of the StudyThe objective of this study is not to test a hypothesis, but to add to

the existing knowledge of the topic and to discover new facts about school enrolments in Ghana. Specifically, the study aims at:1. estimating the number of children who will require 1st Cycle schools

for each five-year period from 1970-1990;2. showing the likely proportion of this number of children who will actually

gain admission to 1st Cycle schools during the period;

3. reviewing the efficiency of the School system;4. examining the policy implications of 1, 2 and 3 above on the country's

finance, supply of teachers and related issues.

1.2.3 Scope of the Thesis

This study has a broad scope aimed at achieving the stated objectives.It examines the 1st Cycle school system in Ghana, as well as the agents which

deliver schooling such as the Ghana Ministry of Education on the one hand,

and the children who receive the education on the other hand.

5

There are five chapters: Chapter One is the introduction where theimportance of education in Ghana, the area of study, sources of data,

methodology of the study and related factors are discussed. The second chapter examines what has been done in the past with regard to the

methodology of estimating future school enrolments and the available

empirical evidence, with a view to avoiding the risk of duplicating other

authors' work. In the third chapter the Educational System of Ghana is

examined by discussing the aims and objectives of education in Ghana, and

analysing various school statistics for Ghana to show the efficiency of

the school system. In the fourth and fifth chapters, an attempt is made to

project the population of Ghana from 1970 to 1990 and to estimate the future

school enrolments under various assumptions of fertility, mortality, migration, enrolment ratios and similar factors. The policy implications of the projected school enrolments are also discussed. Finally, the conclusion gives a summary of the discussions in this study, and the standpoint taken in the thesis as well as other related areas where further research is required.

1.3 Sources of Data

The main sources of data are largely secondary and may be classified as follows: First there is the age and sex population data as well as school

enrolments available in the Census Reports of 1960 and 1970. The second group of data comprises the available statistics on school enrolments at the

Ghana Education Service. Data on financing and cost of schooling have been

obtained from the Accounts Division of the Ghana Education Service (G.E.S.).

The author has also relied, to some extent, on his experience in the G.E.S.

and his knowledge of Ghanaian society.

1.4 Summary of Metholodogy

Various statistical procedures have been used to arrive at the conclusions. The observed 1970 age and sex population data have been evaluated using the

6

U.N., Whipple's and Myers'indices as well as age and sex ratios. The data

have been adjusted using the Carrier-Farraq, quadratic, osculatory graduation,

Hill's method and SKJ.FOR techniques (see 4.1.). The results are

then compared and the best one selected for the projection on the basis of

age and sex ratios, U.N. and other indices.

The enrolment ratio and the grade enrolment methods have been used

to estimate future school enrolments. Various terms have been used:

"School population" refers to the number of children who gain admission to

schools as opposed to "school-age population" which refers to children who

are available to enter school; "1st Cycle schools refer to primary and

middle or junior secondary schools, while 2nd Cycle schools cover secondary,

commercial and technical schools.

1.5 Limitations of the Study

The data used completely lacked school statistics by age and for urban

and rural areas for all the years except 1960 and 1970 where some data are

available in the census reports. The basic defect here is that a clear trend

of age-specific enrolment ratios could hardly be made and the author had to

rely largely upon his own knowledge of educational development in Ghana. The

G.E.S. does not collect such data largely because of lack of adequate finance

and personnel as the inclusion of such questions would mean a lengthy questionnaire,

and thus increase the cost of collection, tabulation and publication. A very

useful, challenging and interesting exercise would have been to include a "life

table" of teachers in Ghana, since the exodus of teachers to other professions

both within and outside the country has affected the development of education

in the country. Lack of basic data on the exodus of teachers has made it

impossible to do this and other related works.

Despite these limitations, an attempt has been made to estimate school

enrolments for Ghana, and it is the cherished hope of the writer that the

work will be useful to educational planners in Ghana.

7

1.6 Brief History of Education in Ghana"The earliest contacts of this country with Western education were

through the coastal forts erected by the European slave-trading nations"

(McWilliam, 1962: 8). Most of these contained schools from time to time

with the first one being opened by the Portugese in 1529 (McWilliam, 1962:

8). The arrival of the missionaries at the beginning of the nineteenth century

saw rapid expansion in education with schools spreading from the coast to such inland areas as Eastern and Ashanti regions (Fig. 1). By 1880, for example,

the Wesleyans had about 83 schools with over 3,000 pupils (McWilliam, 1962:

18). Between 1800 and 1930, several education laws were passed including Guggisberg's 16 Principles of Education which were presented to Parliament

in 1925.The next important landmark in the development of education in Ghana was

the presentation to Parliament in 1951 of the Accelerated Development Plan of Education, which aimed at expanding primary education rapidly, resulting in "132,000 children entering Primary One in 1952, more than twice the intake for 1951" (McWilliam, 1962: 84). In 1961 an important landmark was reached when an

Act was passed making primary education "basic, fee-free and theoretically

compulsory" (McWilliam, 1962: 109). the 1970s saw a gradual rise in school enrolments. The Ghana Education Service was established in 1974 to administer

and develop all aspects of pre-university education, and a new structure and

content of education was introduced in the same year aimed at increasing enrolment progressively to attain universal primary education. Today this New

System is still in the experimental stages because of inherent problems of implementation. One feature of education after 1975 is the phenomenal exodus of Ghanaian teachers to other professions within the country and to similar

professions outside the country. This has tended to slow down the development

of education and has adversely affected its quality.

7b

F , G U R E 1; G H A N a

z

8

1.7 General Information about Ghana

Ghana attained independence from Britain in 1957 and became a Republic in 1960. The Republic of Ghana lies on the West Coast of Africa and is

bounded in the north by Upper Volta, in the east by the Republic of Togo

and in the west by the Ivory Coast, while the Gulf of Guinea forms its southern boundary.

Ghana lies in the Tropical belt and is very close to the equator, extending

from latitude 4J5°N in the south to 11°N in the north. It stretches over 672 kilometres from north to south and 526 kilometres from east to west, covering

an area of 239,469 square kilometres.

Ghana is divided into nine administrative regions: Greater Accra, Ashanti,Central, Brong Ahafo, Western, Eastern, Northern, Upper and Volta (Fig. 1).

As the nation's capital, Accra is the seat of government and the main centre of commercial activity; it is also the country's biggest city and has the

largest concentration of population. Other important cities include Kumasi, Takoradi, Tema and Cape Coast which is one of the leading centres of educational activities in Africa.

The population of Ghana was 6,726,815 in 1960 and this increased to 8,559,313 in 1970, Ghanaians are mostly Sudanese in origin, although

Hamitic strains are also found. Several ethnic groups may be identified and these include the Ashantis, Fantis, Gas, Warls, Builsa and Nzema. Perhaps

the most salient characteristic in the population between 1960 and 1970 was rapid growth rate in some of Ghana's main cities especially Accra, Sekondi-

Takoradi, Tema and Kumasi.

Cocoa is by far the main cash crop and the main foreign exchange earner. Agriculture is generally the mainstay of the economy, employing about 65%

of the labour force. Ghana has several types of minerals and base metals including gold, manganese, diamonds and bauxite. Manufacturing industries

have contributed significantly to the economy since the country adopted

9

import-substitution industrialisation strategy after independence.

The country has also attained great achievements in the field of education.

There are three universities - University of Ghana, University of Science and

Technology and the University of Cape Coast. There are several other

institutes of Advanced Education like the polytechnics and the Ghana Institute

of Journalism: Compulsory and fee-free primary and middle school education

was introduced in September 1961, while secondary and technical education also

became fee-free in September 1965. Recent trends in education have been to

provide more educational facilities so as to achieve universal primary

education; the curriculum at primary and secondary levels is also being diversified, while commercial colleges provide courses in accountancy,

bookkeeping, office practice, typing and related subjects. It should also be noted that the teacher training program is being consolidated.

CHAPTER 2

REVIEW OF RELEVANT LITERATURE

2.1 Review of the Methodology of Estimating Future School Enrolments

Very few methods have been developed to estimate future school enrolments.

United Nations (1966) outlined two basic methods, namely the enrolment ratio and the Grade-Cohort Methods. In the former, future school enrolment ratios are applied to projected populations to obtain future estimates of school populations while the latter technique involves the use of current and future trends of

dropout, retention and other rates, (see, also, Bogue, 1979 and Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (O.E.C.D., 1967a) The O.E.C.D. (1967a) examines also whether a number of related techniques such as simulation,

mathematical model building and systematic control theory could be applied to the problems of education, and put forward a number of models to estimate

future cost of education, supply of teachers, school buildings and related

facilities. It is interesting to note that most of these models are not

applicable in Ghana, as the necessary data required to serve as inputs,

such as enrolment by age and grade for several years, are non-existent (see

also Uche, 1980).

Jolly (1969) proposes that future school enrolment ratios can be decided according to either the manpower needs of the country or financial resources

of the country, attaching much importance to the former. An examination of

11

his proposals shows that the first method is possible for higher education and not

for primary education. In Ghana and other developing countries, it is

universal primary education and universal literacy which is desired, so that Ghana, for example, cannot plan its education on the basis of Jolly's first

method. Besides, educational finance is a leading factor influencing the provision of education facilities in developing countries.

2.2 Review of Empirical Studies

Apart from the studies of Jones (1972), Kpedekpo (1972), Gaisie and

de Graft Johnson (1976), Okurontifa (1979) and Achanfuo-Yeboah (1980), very

little work has been done on school enrolments in Ghana. Jones (1972) uses

Ghana, Nigeria and Zambia as examples to examine the educational targets set by African countries such as attempts to achieve universal primary education.

He demonstrates problems posed by high fertility and declining mortality in African countries trying to achieve their education goals, and shows that universal primary education programs have been inconceivable because of an unfavourable age structure of population caused by high fertility, increasing cost of education, inadequate supply of teachers and other educational facilities. He concludes that "it would take decades for Ghana to provide universal primary education even if a moderate decline in the current very

high levels of fertility was to set in" (Jones, 1972: 301).

Kpedekpo (1972) attempts to construct school life tables by sex for

Ghana, and shows the joint effects of deaths and school dropouts on the school

population. He observes that boys spend more years in school than girls and

that most urban areas have higher enrolment ratios than rural areas with sex differentials in enrolment being present in both urban and rural areas

(see also Weis, 1981: 313). Even though he uses age data in the construction of school life tables, he discusses alternate methods such as the cohort or generation approach which makes use of grade instead of age data. Gaisie

and de Graft Johnson (1976) estimate future school-age population for Ghana,

12

under various assumptions of fertility and mortality levels. They discuss

a number of factors which influence the levels of enrolment such as the

supply of teachers, and indicate that universal primary education cannot soon

be attained in Ghana. Achanfuo-Yeboah (1980) discusses the role of education

in manpower development in Ghana. Using the 1974-75 school statistics and the results of the Ghana manpower survey of 1975, he indicates that even

though education is important in the supply of the manpower requirements of

the country, there is a need to redefine the educational objectives of the

country with a view to restructuring the system, making the content of education

more practical and minimising sex and areal differentials in education.

The Ghana Ministry of Economic Planning (1977) attempts to estimate school population for Primary One from 1975 to 1980 (Table 2.1), showing a steady increase in Primary One enrolment from 223,701 to 334,489. Okurontifa

Table 2.1: Enrolment Projections for Primary One 1974-75 to 1979-80

Year

Projection of 6 year old children

PrimaryEnrolment

Enrolmentratio

1974-75 367,727 223,701 (Actual) 60.831975-76 377,656 270,006 71.501976-77 387,853 284,856 73.401977-78 398,325 300,523 75.501978-79 409,080 317,052 77.501979-80 420,125 334,489 79.00

Source: Ghana Ministry of Economic Planning, 1977: 296

(1979) discusses the changing demographic situations in Africa and how these

affect educational development. He illustrates the growth in primary school

enrolments in individual countries in a table which reveals that between 1960 and 1965, and 1965 and 1968, for example, primary school enrolments in Ghana

grew by 16.7% and negatively respectively, as compared with 12.5 and 8.9%

13

for the Gambia during the same periods (Okurontifa, 1979: 161). He

identifies sex differentials in enrolment for all the African countries and

shows that Ghana has one of the highest female enrolment ratios in Africa, 42,

43 and 43 for 1965, 1970 and 1971 resepctively as compared with 29, 31 and

31 for the Gambia, and 38, 37 and 39 for Nigeria (Okurontifa, 1979: 162). The

negative growth in enrolment between 1965 and 1968 was the direct result of the 1966 Coup d'etat,, as the proposed plans were cancelled.

Several other researchers have studied the development of education in

other developing countries (see, for examples, Dow 1972, Daroesman 1980,Komora 1972, UNESCO 1974 and Adiseishiah 1980).

Not much literature is available on past fertility and mortality in Ghana as well as their plausible trends. Gaisie (1976) shows that the recorded gross reproduction rate (G.R.R.) for Ghana in 1968 was between 3.4 and 3.6, and that the urban and rural populations had G.R.R. of 3.0 to 3.3 and 3.5 to 3.6 recpectively, while the Total Fertility Rate (T.F.R.) for the country was 6.9. He shows further that the recorded crude death rate (C.D.R.) in 1968 was 12.3% and that urban and rural areas had 7.3 and 14.5% respectively:

these reduced to 10.5, 6.4, and 12.4 in 1969 for the whole country, urban and rural areas (see also Gaisie, 1981; Gaisie and de Graft Johnson, 1976; United

Nations, 1978; Awusabo-Asare, 1980 and Jain, 1981).

2.3 Some Methodological and Empirical Problems

Various authors have identified different problems in estimating future school enrolments: Achanfuo-Yeboah (1980)observes that the data base used

for estimating future school enrolments in Ghana is incorrect, as most of the

available statistics cover only public schools, especially in secondary,

commercial and technical schools (Second Cycle institutions) (see also O.E.C.D., 1967a: 291). He suggests that education statistics units should try as much as

possible to collect data on private schools as well. For the purposes of the

present study, this should not be a major problem since, in Ghana, most of the

14

1st Cycle schools are government owned.

Dunn (1981: 1) identifies one major problem of estimating future school

enrolments as "policies being pursued by one agency of government may not mesh with the policies of those responsible for schools." He gives an empirical

case of Australia where the immigration policy occurred without appropriate

support for the states to cope with the educational problems of migrant pupils. Basing his views on the results of the implementation of the proposals of the

Karmel Committee of Enquiry into education in South Australia, Dunn (1981: 2)

explains that education departments have to make decisions using predictions of population and if these prove to be in error, then the decisions will be wrong.

Finally the O.E.C.D. (1977) also explains that the uncertainty surrounding

demographic forecasts has increased in recent years to the extent that such forecasts can no longer provide any valid and reliable basis for the planning of any future educational provision. It also discusses a number of limitations

to educational planning which are related in the main to defects in data on education; it shows that there is a general lack of statistics on flows of students and that published information sufficient to build up a detailed picture of student flow is only available for recent years. This is a major

handicap since a knowledge of the changing structure of education is very

useful in all aspects of educational planning, and there is the need for a

greater effort to collect these data. The O.E.C.D. (1977) also points out that

most of the available educational statistics relate to categories rather than

individuals. There is a growing recognition, it stresses, that individual

data systems are in many ways desirable particularly where administrative

action is concerned with individuals as well as categories, as in the case of teachers, and where age, location, qualifications and other characteristics of

the individual are at least as significant as the broad group in which the

individual may be classified.

15

2.4 Review of Factors Affecting School Enrolments

Several factors combine in various ways to determine future school

enrolments: Bogue (1977: 12) states, "In projecting future school attendance

or enrolment ratios, the following consideration (and possibly others unique

to the area) must be weighed:

(a) Age of compulsory attendance required by law, possible changes

in this age and the degree to which the law will be enforced

in future;

(b) attitudes of parents and children towards schooling, particularly

in agrarian societies where child labour in the fields can have

immediate economic advantages;

(c) availability of school facilities and personnel, especially

in rural and poverty stricken areas;

(d) trends in equality of education for boys and girls;

(e) revision of school curricula to provide training for positions

in which future employment possibilities might exist".

(See also, Komora, 1972.)

2.4.1 Demographic Factors

Dunn (1981: 1) shows how "recent demographic changes and also predicted

demographic trends will affect planning decisions not only in the formal

education system involving school, colleges, and universities, but also in

policies of education." He explains that sometimes the changes produce

problems faster than the system can produce appropriate educational counter

measures, and that "educational departments need time to purchase land to

build schools, and to recruit teachers ..." (Dunn, 1981: 1). This is rather

important in Ghana where universal primary education has been elusive for

over 30 years because of such problems (see also Daroesman, 1980, and Jones,

1972) .

16

2.4.2 Social Factors and the Supply of Teachers

Achanfuo-Yeboah (1980) shows that social factors are now less important

than such other factors as cost of education in estimating future school

enrolments in Ghana. He observes that the era when the parents refused to

send their children to school because of social reasons is no more. Jones

and Kayani (1971) discuss the role of teachers in any educational program

and project the supply of teachers under various assumptions while, at the same

time, emphasising the increasing role of the supply of teachers in educational

development and projection of school enrolments.

Bogue (1979: 15) explains that "the requirements for teachers are usually

measured by a pupil-teacher ratio, the number of pupils per teacher. In

developing countries, this ratio may be very high (as much as 40 or 50 to 1),

whereas in a developed country school system it may be very low." He explains

further that this ratio is not a measure of average class size, as teachers

assigned to administrative, counselling and special services activities are

included in calculating the ratio. It is "simply an overall index of demand

for teachers to handle a given volume of students" (Bogue, 1979: 15).

2.4.3 Economic and Financial Considerations

Knight (1966) discusses the costing and financing of education in

Tanzania and expresses educational expenditures as a proportion of the Gross

Domestic Product. He attempts to project both recurrent and capital

expenditure on education at all levels, namely primary, secondary and tertiary.

The projected estimates of expenditure are obtained by applying the average

expenditure per pupil (both recurrent and capital) to the projected enrolments,

and the necessary adjustments for increases in expenditure with time are also

made (see also, Gaisie and de Graft Johnson 1976: 120). This procedure is

rather convenient and useful as the data on expenditures are largely available

from governmental statistical sources.

17

In discussing educational development in Ceylon, Jones and Kayani (1971)

emphasise the cost of education and indicate that one of the major mistakes

made in school projections is to assume that the unit cost of education can

somehow be held constant, and that this is never the case in practice. They

base their method of projecting recurrent cost on the fact that teacher

salaries are a very high proportion of cost of education in Ceylon, and that

the level of teachers' salaries is still rising (see also Hartman, 1981).

2.5 Conclusion

From the foregoing, the writer accepts the view expressed by many authors

that universal primary education is inconceivable in many countries in the

near future, unless more resources are put into education. The standpoint taken

here is that poor countries like Ghana can only plan their education according

to the scarce and limited financial resources available to them.

It is also evident that little work has actually been done in estimating

future school enrolments for Ghana, and that there is the need for more

research and work in this area of study. The point of departure of the present

study from the existing literature is to include in one study of Ghana, a

survey of the history of education in Ghana, a review of the entire school

system and an analysis of school statistics including an examination of the

efficiency of the school system. In addition, this thesis includes the

projection of school enrolments and their accompanying implications for cost,

the demand for teachers, school buildings and related materials.

CHAPTER THREE

THE EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM OF GHANA

3.1 Aims and Objectives of Education in Ghana

Ghana has a well defined educational policy aimed at removing the

bottlenecks in education and making education more beneficial to the individual and to the country as a whole. Ghana Ministry of Economic Planning (1977: 293) states: "The major objectives of Ghana's educational policy are:

1) To expand and consolidate facilities for education so as:

i) to increase progressively the intake of children of school­going age so that by the end of the plan period, every child of school-going age has access to at least basic formal education that is, up to the Junior Secondary School level;

ii) to provide for as many of the adult population as possible

facilities for adult education;2) To reform the structure and content of general education so as to

make it much more employment-oriented and thus correct the present

mismatch between the pattern of educational output and the available

job opportunities;

3) To make the educational system more positively responsive to themanpower needs of the country;

19

7)

3.2

To strike the right 'mix' between education as a consumer good

and education as an investment in 'human capital';

To correct the present imbalance and disparity in the distribution

of educational facilities in the country;

To ensure that both the private and public sectors follow one

structure and content of education;To raise the quality of the teacher and of teaching in our educational institutions; and

To rationalise the administration, planning, co-ordination and financing of education with the objective of achieving economy

and efficiency."Ghana Ministry of Education

In Ghana the governmental body or agency responsible for the development of education is the Ministry of Education which is headed by a Minister, with a Senior Principal Secretary who is responsible for the day-to-day administration of the Ministry. To enable it to function very effectively

and efficiently, the Ministry has two principal wings, namely the National Council for Higher Education and the Ghana Education Service.

The National Council for Higher Education is responsible for the

development, administration, formulation and implementation of all decisions on higher education in Ghana. By higher education is meant education in the

post-secondary school institutions like the Universities, Polytechnics and

Institutes of Advanced Education like the Ghana Institute of Journalism. The

Council is headed by a Chairman who is responsible for the activities of the

Council. The Council advises the government, through the Minister of Education,

on all matters affecting higher education such as budgeting, staffing, intake of students, the establishment of new higher institutions of learning and

related issued. It also compiles statistics of enrolment in, and output from,

20

the higher institutions.

The Ghana Education Service (G.E.S.), on the other hand, is responsible

for the development, administration, formulation and implementation of alldecisions regarding pre-university education in the country. It is a semi-

autonomous body, and, unlike the National Council for Higher Education, its

members are not part of the Ghana Civil Service. The members of the G.E.S.have their own conditions of service and their own trade union which is

called the Ghana National Association of Teachers (G.N.A.T.). The G.E.S.

has its power invested in the Education Service Council which is headed bya chairman; the day-to-day activities of the service are the responsibility

of the Director-General of Education who is also the highest professionalperson in the country with regard to pre-university education. He is assisted

by two Deputy Director-Generals and several Directors of Education. Theheirarchy of positions in the service moves down from the Directors throughto Assistant Directors, Principal Superintendents, Senior Superintendents,Superintendents and to the Certificate 'A' teacher in the primary or middle

school. Apart from planning the structure and content of education at the

pre-university level, the service is also responsible for providing goodconditions of service for the members and for ensuring that the members are

of high professional standard. The G.E.S. has been quite effective since it

was established in 1974; it has introduced a New Structure and Content of

Education for Ghana, improved salaries and remunerations of teachers and theother members of the service and has made it abundantly clear that it is

going to work hard towards the achievement of universal primary education and

literacy in the country (see, for example, Ghanaian Times of May 18, 1982).3.3 A Comparison of the Present Structure and Content of Education in

Ghana and the Proposed New SystemFigures 3.1 and 3.2 show a diagrammatic representation of the present and

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proposed new structure of education in Ghana. By structure of education is

meant the different levels in the system. While the present structure has

three main levels, the proposed new one has four. The levels in the present

system are the elementary, comprising primary and middle school education;

the Second Cycle institutions comprising secondary schools, technical,

vocational, commercial and teacher training colleges; and a third level comprising

the Universities and Institutes of Advanced Education. In the new structure the

first level is the kindergarten; the second level is the basic First Cycle comprising six years' primary education and three years' junior secondary

education (similar to middle school in the present structure); the third level

is the Second Cycle institutions as found in the present structure; and there

is finally the fourth level comprising University and related education. It should be noted that the middle schools in the present system are to convert to junior secondary schools in the new one. The first level in the present structure and the second level in the new structure are basic, fee-free and

theoretically compulsory.A comparative study of figures 2 and 3 also reveals that, in the new

structure, the period of time spent at school is comparatively shorter. As

stated in the 1975/76-1980/81 five-year development plan for Ghana, "The significance of the new structure and content of education for Ghana is that

it reduces the length of time taken by the average Ghanaian child from elementary school to the end of secondary education by four years" (Ghana

Ministry of Economic Planning 1971: 294). This means that there will be, to

some extent, less wastage and, thus, education will be a little more efficient.

This is also a saving of money for the government since less time spent at

school means less money spent on a child, other things being equal.Differences also exist in the curricula of the two systems of education.

Among others, it is found that the present educational system is very academic

22

and general and lays very little enphasis on practical training; on the contrary, the curriculum of the new system has substantial practical content,

comprising training in academic, cultural, technical and vocational subjects.

Practical training is to be provided as soon as possible in the primary school in the new system.

Furthermore, whereas the present system of education tends to alienate

pupils from their tradition and culture, the new structure is based on local

conditions and recognises the important role that culture plays in education.

It is stated categorically in the new system that "pupils will help their

immediate localities by undertaking communal labour", and that, "they will

also take a very active part in local festivals etc" (Ghana Education Service 1975, cited in Achanfuo-Yeboah, 1980: 18).

3.4 School Statistics for Ghana

3.4.1 School Enrolments by Grade and SexSince the introduction of compulsory primary education in 1961, Ghana has

made great strides in the provision of primary school facilities. This has resulted in a steady rise of enrolments from 331,117 in 1960-61 to 1, 295,525

in the 1978-79 academic year, representing a percentage increase of 193.7, though

there were declines in enrolment between 1965 and 1970 (Table 3.1). Despite this impressive performance, 30% of the children of school-going age in 1975

were still not in school, even though there were cases of under-utilisation of

existing school facilities; especially in the rural areas (see, for example,Ghana Ministry of Economic Planning 1977: 296).

The data used in this discussion have been obtained from the Ghana Education

Service Statistics Unit and the 1960 and 1970 Census Reports. The G.E.S. sends

out questionnaires to all pre-university institutions and from the answers obtained it compiles the data. The defect in the data is that although some adjustments are made for data on private institutions* the data are largely

23

on public institutions, especially in Second Cycle institutions. As explained

in Chapter One, this defect does not affect the present study, as most of the First Cycle institutions are public. Yet another problem is that, with the

exception of data obtained from the Census, there is absolutely no information

on enrolments by age from the G.E.S. data. This has tended to prevent the

projection of school enrolment by single years of school-age, for example; and

the discussion has therefore been centred on enrolments for primary and middle

school population.Figure 3.3 shows trends in primary and middle school enrolments in Ghana

between the 1960-61 and 1978-79 academic years. It shows that there was a

steady growth in enrolment in the primary school from 1960-61 to 1965-66.

Subsequently, a fall in enrolment occurred until 1971-72, when it started risingagain. A glance at the figure also reveals that enrolments in the middle school

enjoyed a steady growth from 1960-61 until 1972-73 and, then, declined. The decline in primary school enrolments was the direct effect of the military take­over in 1966, while the fall in middle school enrolment is the subsequent result of the reduction in the primary school population six years earlier, as well as

the rapid expansion in secondary school education which took place in the early

1970s (see also Table 3.1).Disparities in enrolment by sex are shown in Table 3.2 for the primary and

middle schools. It shows that the proportion of boys enrolled in primary and

middle schools was higher than that for girls in all years, and that the

decline in enrolment was slightly less for girls than for boys. In absolute figures, primary school enrolment between the 1965-66 and 1966-69 academic years,

for example, declined by 2606 for girls and 18,046 for boys, showing a negative

growth rate of 0.52% and 2.82% for girls and boys respectively. Again Table 3.2 reveals a steady increase in the proportion of girls enrolled from 36% to 44%

for primary and 30% to 40% for middle schools from 1960-61 to 1978-79. Even

2 3b

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8 0 0

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4 0 0

1 960/61 1966/67

SOUR CE: A P P E N D I X 3 11978/79

24

though the proportion of boys in the total enrolment exceeded that of girls,

Table 3.1: 1st Cycle School Enrolments in Ghana,1960-61 to 1978-79

% Increase % IncreasePeriod/Year Primary During Periods Middle During Periods1960/61 441,117 151,3371965/66 1,137,495 157.9 267,434 76.71970/71 947,502 -16.7 443,842 66.01975/76 1,157,303 22.1 451,462 1.71978/79 1,295,525 11.9 489,209 8.4

Source: Appendix 3.1

there was a steady increase :Ln the proportion of girls in the total schoolenrolment, as indicated in Table 3.2.

Table 3.2: Proportion of Pupils Enrolled in 1st CycleSchools by Sex, 1960-61 to 1978-79Primary (6--12 years) Middle (13-16 years)

Year % Boys % Girls % Boys % Girls1960/61 63.8 36.2 71.1 29.91965/66 56.2 43.8 67.5 32.51970/71 55.6 44.4 60.2 39.81975/76 56.6 43.4 59.3 40.71978/79 56.0 44.0 59.6 40.4

Source: Appendices 3.2 and 3.3

Urban and rural differentials in enrolment by sex also existed evident in Table 3.3, which revealed lower enrolment ratios for all levels for

rural areas and indicated the need to raise enrolment ratios, especially in

rural areas. Of total urban primary school-age population of 489,200, 420,712

enrolled, showing an enrolment ratio of 86%; the corresponding figure for the rural areas is 54%. Similarly, 81% of urban middle school-age children were

enrolled as compared with 60% for the rural middle school-age population. Sex

25

differentials in rural-urban enrolment ratios wereeven greater (Table 3.3).

Table 3.3: Rural-Urban Differentials in Enrolment

by Sex : Ghana, 1970 (%)

Urban Enrolment Ratios Rural Enrolment RatiosTotal Males Females Total Males Females

Primary 85.6 85.8 76.0 54.1 54.2 45.6

Middle 81.4 90.5 63.3 59.7 67.2 50.7

Source: Derived from the Ghana 1970 Census Report Vol. III.

The urban enrolment ratios were comparatively higher for both males and

females than rural ones. Areal differentials in primary school enrolment rates

were also found among the administrative regions of the country, with the

Greater Accra region having the highest ratio of 96%, as compared with the

lowest ratios of 26% and 28% for the Northern and Upper regions respectively,

according to the 1970 Census Reports, Vol. Ill ( see Figure 1).

The implication is that if Ghana is to achieve its stated objective of

universal primary education, then efforts should be directed at raising

enrolments in all areas, but more so in the rural areas of Ghana where the bulk

of the population can be found. Efforts should also be made to bridge the

gap in enrolment ratios between the Greater Accra Region on the one hand, and

the Northern and Upper Regions on the other hand. This will entail provision

of more educational facilities - human, material, financial and otherwise - in

the areas with low levels of enrolment. This, in fact, is the surest way of

achieving universal primary education within a reasonably short period, and

should not be ignored by educational planners in Ghana.

The number of pupils enrolled at each grade in the primary and middle

schools in Ghana has increased tremendously between 1960 and 1978. Primary

One enrolment, for example, rose from 106,928 in the 1960-61 academic year to

286,150 in the 1978-79 academic year, showing a percentage increase of 168

(Appendix 3.4). These increases are expected as the primary school population,

as a whole, increased by 194% during the same period. It is also interesting

to learn that female enrolment in the primary schools increased rapidly during

the 1960-65 period, with the highest increase occurring in Primary Five, which

recorded a 362% increase. Also, during the period 1975-79, the percentage

increase in female enrolment was higher than that for boys in all the primary

school grades. This is the result of the determination of the G.E.S. and the

government to eradicate sex differentials in enrolment in Ghanaian schools (see

also, Weis, 1981: 313). As primary education is compulsory, parents are

compelled to send their children to school irrespective of sex. As already

explained, the decrease in enrolment between 1965 and 1970 was the direct result

of the 1966 coup d'etat. Increases also occurred in middle school enrolment between 1960-61 and 1978-79 academic years, not only in Ghana but also in such countries as the Gambia and Nigeria.

3.4.2 Efficiency of the School SystemAn analytical study of the school system in any country would not be

complete unless it is linked with an examination of the wastage in the system

and other related factors. In this regard, the O.E.C.D. (1967a: 125) states,

"In order to gain insight into the working of an educational system, it is

useful to study the long-run implications of present educational propensities.

For instance ... What fraction of todays pupils in a certain type of school will eventually graduate from a university? And so on."

Between the 1961-62 and 1971-72 academic years over 80% of children

admitted to Primary One completed the grade and entered Primary Two, with one-

fifth of the children admitted dropping out before the second year. In higher

forms, the retention rates were even higher; over 95% of the pupils in Primary Five, on average, moved on to Primary Six between the 1961-62 and

1971-72 academic years (Appendix 3.5). Again, of the 231,784 pupils who

entered Primary One in 1961-62, only 148,167 completed the six years of primary education, representing a retention rate of 64%, with about 36% of the

children admitted to Primary One dropping out before Primary Six. In Ghana,

27

the minimum period of schooling necessary for acquiring permanent literacy

(being literate for the rest of one's life) is nine years, which is why the

basic First Cycle schooling of nine years is free and theoretically compulsory.

In India, Chaudri (1981: 43) indicates that the minimum period required for permanent literacy is four years.

If about two-thirds of the pupils admitted to Primary One drop out before

the completion of the sixth year, then it can be argued that there is plenty

of wastage and inefficiency in the Ghanaian primary school system, since the

whole purpose of providing education and eradicating illiteracy is defeated,

to a large extent. This, however, is not unique to Ghana,since most other developing countries have similar or worse experiences: Chaudri (1981: 43)

writes for India: "The existence of extremely high wastage rates in lowerelementary education, as pointed out earlier, is not only a well know fact but

is officially admitted. The official acknowledgement in this area is that of every 100 children admitted to the first standard, 60 reach the second, 50 the third, and only 40 are able to complete three years of schooling" (see also Jones, 1972). Other African countries like Nigeria, Sierra Leone and The Gambia also have high drop out rates.

It is encouraging to learn that retention rates have been improving over the years and that, generally, retention rates for the 1970-71 academic year

were comparatively higher than those for the preceding years, as shown in Appendix 3.5. Again, even though ample data are not available to support it,

the contention that wastage rates are higher in rural areas than in urban

areas cannot be dismissed, as experience in other developing countries indicates (see, for example, Chaudri, 1981: 42). Some wastage can be identified

for the middle schools in Ghana also, as found in the primary schools. Ninety

six percent of the children admitted to Form One in the 1961-62 academic year

continued to Form Two, and of the 58,134 pupils admitted to middle Form One in

28

1960-61, 47,201 reached the final year, that is middle Form Four, representing

a drop out rate of only 19%. If it is borne in mind that some of the 19% of

pupils who dropped out might have continued their education in the secondary

schools and other Second Cycle institutions, one appreciates the fact that

there is less wastage in the middle schools than in the primary schools in

Ghana.

Wastage in the First Cycle school system in Ghana is also manifest in the

number of First Cycle school graduates who are actually employed after

graduation. The Ghana Ministry of Economic Planning (1977: 293) indicates the

presence of a "mismatch between the pattern of educational output and the

available job opportunities." In terms of literacy, it may not be considered

as wastage if pupils completing the First Cycle school cannot find jobs. If,

however, one looks at it from the point of view of benefits from education

both for the individual and the country, it is seen that there is wastage, since

one of the major aims of education in Ghana is to provide the necessary skills

required for the economic development of the country as well as providing the

individual with the skills and training necessary for him to earn a living

(see Section 3.1).

Then also, wastage in the school system can be judged from the amount

of money that was spent to no avail. Gaisie and de Graft Johnson (1976: 118)

state: "Based on the governments estimates of recurrent costs only, the

nation spent 025.4 (US$9.20) per student at the primary level and 028.1

(US$10.20) at middle level during the 1970-71 academic year", based on current

rate of exchange of the cedi. Of the 221,559 pupils entering Primary One in

1966-67, for example, only 135,250 reached Primary Six (Appendix 3.5). This

means that 86,309 pupils dropped out, and using the recurrent expenditure of

US$9.20 (025.4), some US$794,042.80 (02,192,248.6) was wasted. If capital or

development expenditure per pupil is included, the amount of money wasted

would definitely increase. Similarly, of the 84,901 pupils who entered middle

29

form one in 1966-67, 19,746 dropped out, representing a drain of US$201,409 (Ghana currency <Z'554,862.6). This figure of dropouts includes those leaving

middle schools for Second Cycle institutions.

Thus, there is an important need to make education more efficient and to

reduce wastage through massive reductions in drop out rates and improvements

in the content of education so as to make First Cycle education more employment

oriented. In fact, one of the major aims of the New Structure and Content of Education is to provide the individual with the necessary practical, technical

and vocational training to enable him to earn a living after graduation. It

is envisaged in the New Structure that unemployment would be reduced as more children are given practical training. Unfortunately this New System is still in the experimental stage because of inherent problems of implementation. These include the lack of physical facilities like plants and machines to train the pupils and the lack of qualified teaching personnel to teach the stated subjects, as the teachers produced from the specialist training colleges, who were to teach in the Junior Secondary schools left the profession. With the coming to power of the military government it has become increasingly difficult

for teachers to leave the country, and this may lead to the implementation of the proposals if more money is made available for education.

CHAPTER FOUR

POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR GHANA

4.1 Evaluation and Adjustment of Data

The 1970 census data by age and sex were used to project the population

from 1970 to 1990. The data were first evaluated using Myers', Whipple's and

U.N. Indices; the values of 31.2, 183.4 and 42.5 obtained for the total

population in respect of the three indices suggest that there were age

misreporting and related errors in the data (Appendices 4.1 and 4.2). An

examination of the age and sex ratios computed for the 1970 census data leads

to similar conclusions, as it is evident from the fluctuations in age ratios

and the unususally low sex ratios recorded for age groups 20-24 to 30-34

(Table 4.1), which are largely due to sex-age misreporting (U.N. 1956).

The data were then adjusted using the oblique axis, Quadratic Graduation

and Osculatory Interpolation techniques, referred to as Smoth.For (United

States (U.S.) Department of Commerce, 1976), SKJ.FOR (Jain, 1982) and the

techniques developed by Hill, Zlotnik and Durch (Hill et al, 1982). The

SKJ.FOR is a computer program which uses a series of statistical prodecures to

correct errors in age and sex data. To obtain the population ages 0-7, it

employs the reverse survival technique. The population aged 63 and 64 are

obtained from moving averages while various procedures are used to obtain the

population for the other ages (Jain, 1982). The method developed by Hill

31

and others fits second and third degree polynomials to obtain the graduated population, while Smoth.For also employs various mathematical procedures to

graduate the observed population under various assumptions. The U.S. Department of Commerce (1976: 488), for example, states: "the Quadratic Graduation method

assumes a quadratic relationship between each three, five-year age groups", and

that "the Carrier-Farraq ratio method (Oblique-Axis) assumes that there is

a relationship between quinary age groups as:

5P = K.5P + 5 where x x5P is the population in the age group x, x+4, and K is the ratio of

two consecutive age groups ..." (U.S. Department of Commerce, 1976: 487)

Table 4.1: Age and Sex Ratios for the Ghana 1970

Observed PopulationAgeGroup Sex Ratio

Male Age Ratio

Female Age Ratio

0-4 99.15-9 100.9 112.7 113.410-14 105.4 91.3 88.715-19 105.3 97.3 87.820-24 81.4 88.7 104.225-29 84.9 101.9 101.630-34 88.8 103.1 106.335-39 102.1 101.1 91.840-44 99. 3 95.5 101.845-49 112.5 97.9 89.150-54 107.1 108.5 115.255-59 115.9 78.4 72.260-64 105.9 121.3 126.365-69 102.770+ 102.1

TOTAL 98.5

Source: Derived from the 1970 Population Census Report, Vol. III.

32

The results of the procedures are summarised in Appendices 4.2 and 4.3

for males and females respectively. These results are compared to select the

most appropriate one on the basis of age and sex ratios, Whipple's, Myers'

and U.N. Indices. The Carrier-Farraq and Quadratic Graduation techniques

were the first to be eliminated, as they are neither "useful nor apt at the very young and high ages" (Carrier and Hobcraft, 1971: 13 and 16), and as

smoothed data on young ages are more important here since this study involves

future school enrolments. Table 4.2 shows sex ratios for the graduated population obtained from SKJ.For, osculatory Graduation and Hill's techniques

and shows that the results obtained from the SKJ.For technique are comparatively the best as the sex ratios show the least fluctuations, especially in the young

ages.Table 4.2: Sex Ratios for 1970 Graduated

Population of Ghana

OsculatoryAge Group SKJ.For Hill's Method Graduation

0-4 101.4 101.0 95.75-9 100.9 102.1 106.010-14 102.0 103.6 108.915-19 97.6 96.0 101.120-24 89.5 87.6 85.625-29 86.1 84.1 80.330-34 90.0 89.6 90.735-39 96.9 98.4 99.040-44 102.8 105.2 103.245-49 107.0 109.2 107.150-54 109.5 111. 5 106.755-59 107.3 111.1 104.360-64 108.3 107.7 102.3

nSource: Derived from Appendices 4.2 and 4.3.

33

In fact the results of the SKJ.For and Hill's techniques were similar (Appendices 4.2 and 4.3), and the latter even produced better age ratios (Table

4.3); but this is to be expected as the technique is basically mathematical.

The results of both methods have a Whipple's Index of 99.9, but the graduated

data obtained from the SKJ.For technique are used because it has a lower U.N.

index 18.9 as compared with 19.7 for Hill's method, and also because it uses the prevailing fertility and mortality conditions in Ghana in the graduation, while Hill's method uses basically mathematical procedures; in addition, better

sex ratios are obtained form the SKJ.For data as already discussed. The results

of the SKJ.For technique are accordingly accepted and used for the population projections.

Table 4.3: Age Ratios for the 1970 Graduated

Population of Ghana

Age Group SKJ.For Hill's TechniqueMales Females Males Females

5-9 95.6 96.3 97.1 97.010-14 100.0 97.7 99.1 95.315-19 95.0 94.2 94.1 95.120-24 94.8 97.9 93.9 97.125-29 98. 3 102.4 99.1 104.430-34 100.9 101. 3 102.3 102.435-39 100.5 98.3 100.5 97.440-44 98.8 96. 7 98.2 95.645-49 97.8 96.2 97.8 96. 350-54 97.6 96.3 97.6 96.255-59 97.5 96.5 96.6 96.060-64 81.7 83.1 97.1 97.6

Source: Derived from Appendices 4.2 and 4.3.

4.2 Assumptions Underlying the Population Projections

4.2.1 Basis for the Fertility Assumptions

Several researchers have shown that high fertility has persisted in

34

Ghana for many years and that the existing social, economic and political

institutions have tended to favour this high fertility (see, for example,

Fortes, 1950: 262-63, cited in Gaisie, 1976: 52). Gaisie (1976: 52)

also states that "a high fertility is sustained by the ideals and values implicit

in the traditional social organisations and also by certain structural features

which generate strong motivation to bear many children." It is also interesting

to learn that procreation is the essence of marriage in Ghana, for example, and

that barren women are not likely to get husbands; and where already married,

divorce is likely to occur. Table 4.4 shows estimated and recorded crude birth

rates (C.B.R.) for Ghana and indicates a decline in recorded C.B.R. from 47°/ö0

in 1960 to 42°/00-

Table 4.4: Estimated and Recorded Crude Birth Rates

for Ghana

Year Estimated Recorded

1945-49 52 -

1948 49 -1950-54 51 -1955-59 50 -1959-60 47-55 471963-64 52-54 -1968-69 49-50 471971 49.6 42

Source: Gaisie and de Graft Johnson, 1976: 11

The U.N. (1978: 42) reports that the Ghana Government stated in its reply

to the Third U.N. Population Inquiry in June 1976 that the C.B.R. was 48 A

that this was too high. Again in its reply to the Second U.N. Population Inquiry

in February 1974, the Ghana Government stated that on the basis of the analysis

of the 1970 Census, it had been estimated that a C.B.R. of 52°/0D and a G.R.R. of

3 had existed throughout the period 1960-70 (U.N., 1978: 42). Gaisie (1976: 61)

3 5.

shows that the recorded C.B.R. for Ghana in 1960, 1967-68 and 1968-69 were

4 7 /00 4 7 /0 0 and49/oo respectively. All these point out that fertility has

been high in Ghana. More recently Jain (1981: 65) has shown that recorded C.B.R.0for the Cape Coast Project for the periods 1974-75, 1975-76 and 1076-77 were 41 /o(

0 Q50 / q o and 48 / o o respectively. Even though the Cape Coast Project was smaller in coverage as compared with the Censuses of 1960 and 1970 and the National Population/Demographic Inquiry of 1968-69 from which Gaisie and the Ghana

Government made their estimates, it confirms the persistence of high fertility

in Ghana. Several other researchers have reached similar conclusions (see, for example, Jones, 1972; Yeboah, 1979 and Awusabo-Asare, 1980).

From this arises the all important question as to how long this situation of high fertility is going to persist. The answer to this question lies in the effort being made by the Government to reduce fertility on the one hand, and the rate of acceptance of fertility control measures by Ghanaian society

on the other hand. Ghana is one of the few African countries where there is a visible Governmental effort to reduce fertility through widespread dissemination of information on family planning.

U.N. (1978: 42) explains that at the World Population Conference held in Bucharest in 1974 under the auspices of the U.N., the Government of Ghana

stated its views that the level of fertility was too high and that it was determined to reduce it. Prior to the conference in February 1974, the Governmen

repeated its policy to limit fertility set out in the Population Policy of March

1969 (U.N., 1978: 42). In this regard the Government established the Ghana National Family Planning Program in 1970 to introduce and implement measures

aimed at reducing family size, fertility and natural increase of population.

In May 1973, the Regional Demographic Advisor of the U.N. Economic Commission for

Africa (E.C.A.) reported that the National Family Planning Program was being

implemented with funds from the Government as well as such international

36

organisations as the United States Agency for International Development (U.S.A.I.D.) (U.N., 1978: 42).

Furthermore, at the Bucharest World Population Conference in 1974, the Government stated that the National Family Planning Program had already made

a tremendous impact through its informational and educational activities, while the number of acceptors had increased greatly; and that the Government accepts the view that "voluntary planning of the size of families and reductions

in the rates of population growth are in the vital interest of the nation. As an integral part of its Population Policy, the Government recalled its 1969

statement that the encouragement and promotion of wider productive and gainful employment, increasing the proportion of girls entering and completing schools,

and the development of a wider range of non-domestic roles for women were necessary in any attempt to reduce fertility in Ghana" (U.N., 1978: 46).

Lack of basic data on socio-economic factors and the fact that socio-economic factors tend to change more rapidly than demographic indicators inhibit the meaningful inclusion of socio-economic factors in fertility projections. "According to Brass, the possibility of accurately forecasting economic

fluctuations and through them, the corresponding changes in fertility seems quite remote" (U.N., 1979: 32).

From the foregoing discussion, it is probable that no further rise in

fertility in Ghana is likely to occur and that even though the chance of a

drop in fertility cannot be dismissed, no drastic drop in fertility may be expected during the projection period. Besides, even if fertility declines

in the near future, the population of Ghana will continue to grow rapidly at

least into the next century before the rapid growth may cease, for as Gaisie

(1973: 254) points out "it is important to bear in mind that the immediate benefits of declines in fertility are relatively small and it takes a fairly

long time before the rapid growth of the population slows down to within

tolerable limits" (see, also, Keyfitz, 1971: 83-9, cited in Gaisie, 1973: 255).

37

4.2.2 Fertility Assumptions

Three series of assumptions are made as follows:

Series 1: A high variant fertility level in which it is assumed that the

T.F.R. of 6.9 in 1970 (Gaisie and de Graft Johnson, 1976: 12) will

persist throughout the projection period.

Series 2: A medium variant fertility assumption of a constant T.F.R. of 6.9

for the first 10 years and a gradual linear decline of T.F.R. to

5.2 during the last 10 years of the projection period.

Series 3: A low variant fertility assumption of a rapid decline in fertility

from a T.F.R. of 6.9 during the first 10 years to 4.5 during the

last 10 years of the projection period.

4.2.3 Basis for Mortality Assumptions

There are very few, if any, reliable and adequate data on mortality in

Ghana. Researchers have attempted to estimate the mortality level from

the 1960 and 1970 population censuses, the National Population/Demographic

Inquiry of 1968-69, and from single and multiround sample surveys like the

Cape Coast Project (see, for example, Gaisie, 1973 and 1976; Gaisie and de Graft

Johnson, 1976; Awusabo-Asare, 1980; and Jain, 1981). The evidence from these

studies indicates that mortality has been declining steadily since the 1940s.

Table 4.5 shows trends of mortality decline in Ghana - and shows that, according

to the U.N., the C.D.R. has fallen from 23 /00 to 17 °/°° during the three decades

beginning 1945-49 and ending 1975-80. Gaisie (1976: 137) also indicates that

life expectancy at birth has increased from 38 years in 1948 through 42 years

in 1960 to almost 49 years in 1968. Some of the results indicate a rather

rapid decline in mortality; for example, evidence from the 1968 and 19690/ 0household surveys shows that the C.D.R. declined sharply from 12 /0 0 to 10 /00

during the twelve-month period between the two surveys (see, for example, Gaisie,

1976: 105) , although the data may not be very accurate.

38

Table 4.5: Estimated Levels of C.D.R. for Ghana

and Cape Coast Project

Period Rate per 1000 Population Source

1945-49 23.31950-54 20.3 U.N. Estimate1955-59 21.7 U.N. Estimate1960-64 -1965- 70 17.8 U.N. Estimate1970-75 19.1 U.N. Estimate1975-80 17.2 U.N. Estimate

1968-69 Observed 15.4 S.K. GaisieAdjusted 19.0-20.0 S.K. Gaisie

1974-77 Observed 15.5 Cape Coast Project

Source: Jain, 1981: 105

It is not surprising that mortality has been declining in Ghana for,

since attaining independence from Britain in 1957, it has been the policy of

the Ghana Government to reduce morbidity and mortality drastically. According

to the U.N. (1978: 53), "Government Policy with regard to morbidity and

mortality has evolved, since independence, from a curative and largely urban

base to a preventative and environmental expansion into rural areas." In its

statement at the U.N. World Population Conference in August 1974, the0Government's Representative reported that the C.D.R. was 19/0 0 and that this was

declining (U.N. 1978: 43). At the same Conference,the Government have

reiterated the position that "a vigorous pursuit of further means to reduce

the still high rates of morbidity and mortality" occupied first priority within

its Population Policy (U.N., 1978: 44). The 1975-76 to 1980-81 five-year

Development Plan for Ghana also indicated that rural health would be emphasised

and gave considerable emphasis to preventative measures and mass immunisation

campaigns (Ghana Ministry of Economic Planning, 1977: 371-2). Again this

policy was evident in the Government's reply to the Third U.N. Population

39

Inquiry in June 1976, when the government stated categorically that its Policy

was as noted above and added that the implementation of the policy was being

achieved through "emphasis upon environmental health, health education and

preventive services" (U.N., 1978: 44). Many other African countries have

made similar efforts: In writing about health programs in Commonwealth

African countries, Caldwell and Okonjo, 1968: 370 cited in Gaisie, 1976: 98)

state, "Most point to spending a large proportion of the budget on health:

extending services, especially into rural areas; mass campaigns against

specified diseases; and securing assistance from such international organisations

as W.H.O. and U.N.I.C.E.F." Aside from this policy, Ghana has had advances in

public health and vaccination campaigns which have lowered mortality and

morbidity.

From the preceding discussion, it is evident that mortality in Ghana has

fallen since independence. It is also important to note that, even though

the Government recognises a reduction in mortality as a top priority in its

development effort, further rapid decline in mortality in Ghana is not very

likely. This is largely because the necessary finance required to implement

morbidity and mortality policy, to train personnel and to import drugs and

related factors is basically lacking: Ghana is currently in economic difficultie

and even though this cannot be considered a permanent feature, any money

becoming available from improvements in the economic situation would go into

repayment and servicing of the country's huge foreign debt, rather than into

improvement of health conditions. Also, the likelihood of a sustained rise

in mortality is quite remote, so that it would suffice to argue

or assume that no drastic changes in the levels of mortality in Ghana are

likely to occur during the projection period.

4.2.4 Mortality Assumptions

Three series of assumptions are made corresponding with series 1, 2 and

3 in the fertility assumptions as follows:

40

Series 1: A high variant mortality assumption in which the 1970 estimated

life expectancy at birth of 44.0 and 47.3 for males and females

respectively (Gaisie and de Graft Johnson, 1976: 22) are assumed to remain constant during the projection period.

Series 2: A medium variant mortality assumption in which the estimated

life expectancy at birth in 1970 would increase by 2.5 years per quinquennium during the last 10 years of the projection period,

having held the life expectancy at birth constant for the first 10 years of the projection period.

Series 3: A low variant mortality assumption in which the estimated life expectancy at birth for 1970 would increase by 3.0 years per

quinquennium after 1980, having held the initial life expectancy

at birth constant for the first 10 years of the projection period.4.2.5 Basis for the International Migration Assumption

International migration which is so important in projecting populations of many countries is not very important in Ghana. Gaisie and de Graft Johnson (1976: 99) explain that the two major determinants of population growth in Ghana are fertility and mortality. Lack of basic data on international

migration also tends to compound the problem. For example, the 1970 Population Census of Ghana recorded that 6.6% of the population were foreign nationals

(Gaisie and de Graft Johnson, 1976: 24), but no data were collected on nationality in the 1960 Census to allow any feasible comparisons of foreigners

in the country. Besides, some of the 6.6% foreign nationals have actually been

born in the country but there was again no evidence on exactly how many.

Gaisie and de Graft Johnson (1976: 25) attempt to make crude estimates of

migration into Ghana and indicate that between 1948 and 1960, some 30,000

foreigners entered the country annually, and that this rate slowed down

considerably after Ghana's economic problems of the mid 1960s.

41

The most significant feature in the country's history of international

migration is the passing in Parliament in 1969 of the Aliens Compliance Order

and the subsequent deportation of hundreds of thousands of foreigners. Even

though the exact number of people involved is not known (because of under­estimation in official Government sources for political reasons), it is believed

that over half a million foreigners left the country. For the purpose of the

present study, the Aliens Compliance Order is less important, as it occurred

before 1970, the base year for the projections. Since 1970, no significant

international migration phenomenon has been noticed apart from the "brain drain".

The "brain drain" may also be negligible in terms of the country's population

as a whole, but important in terms of projecting segments of the population as

in the case of the effect of the exodus of teachers on projecting school population, for example. The worsening economic situation has tended to deter would-be immigrants, and since no drastic improvements in the economic situation are expected during the projection period, it will again suffice to accept the view that the present negligible level of international migration will persist during the period 1970 to 1990.

4.2.6 International Migration Assumption

For the purpose of the present study it is assumed that international migration is negligible.

4.3 Population Projections for Ghana

The component method of population projections as outlined in the FIV.FIV

computer program was used (see Shorter, 1974: 7-29). This consists of projecting separately various age cohorts of the population by sex. The population is

projected by five year intervals since "it is most convenient to project the

population by time-intervals equal to the age-intervals into which the population is divided" (U.N., 1956: 3). Essentially the process involves the multiplication

of the number of people in each age-sex group by the appropriate survival ratios

42

obtained from the North Model life tables, according to the level of mortality

applying.A word of caution must be raised at this stage about the use of the North

Model life tables. Cantrelle (1974) examines mortality patterns in the Tropical World and explains that the North Model life tables do not depict

the exact picture of child mortality in that region. Basing his argument on studies in the Gambia, Senegal, Guatemala and Punjab in India, Cantrelle

(1974:36) points out that "the value of 3ql, the probability of dying between

birthday one and birthday four, exceeds q , the probability of dying within

the first twelve months of life". The North Model life tables assume the

converse of Cantrelle's observation.The North Modle life tables are, however, being used in the present

study for the following reasons:It is, at present, still premature to accept Cantrelle's proposals in

the case of Ghana, as there is the need for more research and more evidence to support the proposals for the country as a whole. Furthermore, several researchers have used the North Model life tables for Ghana and

have come out with satisfactory results (see, for example, Gaisie, 1973, 1976 and 1981; Gaisie and de Graft Johnson, 1976; and Jain, 1981). Besides these differences in childhood mortality would not affect the present

study since births are survived for five years to the 0-4 age groups,

and not to the 0-1 and the 1-4 age groups; so that any problems are overcome by grouping and surviving the population in this five-year age group. This procedure is also supported by evidence from the Cape

Coast Project, for as Jain (1981: 118) points out, "it should be noted

that the death rates of children aged under 5 based on the average of

1974-75 and 1976-77 data resembled the corresponding rates in North

Model life tables (with the same level of mortality) ..."

43

Tables4.6 and 4.7 provide a summary of the T.F.R. and the life expectancy

at birth used in the projections. Series A, B and C correspond with Series 1, 2 and 3 in the fertility and mortality assumptions.

Table 4.6: Assumed T.F.R. in Ghana 1970-1990

Year Series A Series B Series C1970-75 6.9 6.9 6.91975-80 6.9 6.9 6.91980-85 6.9 5.2 4.51985-90 6.9 5.2 4.5

Source: Compiled from Section 4.2.2

Table 4.7: Assumed Life Expectancy at Birth

in Ghana, 1970-1990

Year Series A Series B Series C

M F M F M F1970-75 44.0 47.3 44.0 47.3 44.0 47.31975-80 44.0 47.3 44.0 47.3 44.0 47.31980-85 44.0 47.3 46.5 49.8 47.0 50.31985-90 44.0 47.3 49.0 52. 3 50.0 53.3M = Males, F = FemalesSource: Compiled from Section 4.2.4

Table 4.8 shows the recorded and projected population of Ghana for the

period 1970 to 1990 (see also Appendix 4.5). A glance at the table reveals that there is no difference between projected population up to 1980 for the various

series, and that as a result of differentials in fertility decline underlying

the three series, marked differences in projected population are seen from 1985.

It is also seen that Ghana's population will increase by at least 5.3 million

between 1970 and 1990, representing a percentage increase of 61 (Series C).

The highest increase is seen in Series A where the population will increase by 6.7 million by the end of the period, showing an increase of over 78%; so that

44

in the absence of any changes in the existing fertility and mortality levels

in 1970, the population will increase by 78% by 1990. The 61% increase

represented in the low variant assumptions of Series C also suggests that Ghana's population has potentially a rather high growth rate inherent in the

fertility and mortality levels. Thus even a reduction in fertility of 35%

between 1980 and 1990 will only reduce the increase in population to 61%. In

the light of the available evidence, the results of Series B appear more

plausible as it has already been shown that no drastic changes in the levels of fertility and mortality should be expected during the projection period. Even

so, the population of Ghana will increase by over 5.7 million during the 20 year period from 1970 to 1990, showing a percentage increase of over 67#

Table 4.8: Recorded and Projected Population of Ghana

Year1970-1990

Series A(Both Sexes)

Series B Series CRECORDED1970 8,559,313 8,559,313 8,559,313PROJECTED1975 9,868,121 9,868,121 9,868,1211980 11,384,411 11,384,411 11,384,4111985 13,160,754 12,653,534 12,416,3421990 15,249,266 14,299,301 13,810,427Source: Appendix 4.5

These projected populations have serious implications for school enrolments

during the projection period. The projected number of primary school-age children for the different series are represented in Table 4.9. The age group

6-12 is taken to be the primary school age and 13-16 the middle school age.

This is because in Ghana primary schooling starts at age 6 and lasts for 6 years; the age groups are also chosen to coincide with the age limits set in the propose

45

new structure and content of education for Ghana. Sprague's multipliers

were used to obtain the population in the said primary and middle school age

groups. At least 2.4 million children will require primary education by 1990

(Series C) and if no changes occur in the 1970 fertility and mortality levels,

the number will be 2.9 million (Series A). Similarly, at least 1.3 million

children (Series A) or at least 1.5 million children (Series C) will require middle school education by 1990. These results confirm the assertion made

earlier in the chapter that immediate benefits from fertility decline are small and that Ghana's population will continue to grow rapidly. Series C has the

lowest fertility and mortality assumptions but it has the highest primary

school-age population for 1985 and the highest middle school-age population for 1990. This is because most of the children in the primary school age by 1985 and the middle school age by 1990 would have been born years before the onset of the assumed fertility decline. Under the circumstances, mortality

becomes the most important factor determining the number of children in each age group, hence Series C has the largest number of middle school-age population for 1990 because most of the children aged 6-12 years would have been born

after 1980 when the assumed rapid fertility decline was to start (Figure 4.1).Table 4.9: Projected Primary (6-12 Years) and Middle (13-16 Years)

School-Age Populations, 1975-1990

Year Series A Series B Series C

PRIMARY1975 1,819,113 1,819,113 1,819,1131980 2,231,457 2,231,457 2,231,4571985 2,540,292 2,587,929 2,602,9561990 2,931,352 2,581,200 2,408,019MIDDLE1975 914,741 914,741 914,7411980 1,099,835 1,099,835 1,099,8351985 1,231,036 1,229,287 1,227,8461990 1,386,421 1,443,860 1,464,278Source: Derived from Appendix 4.5

45b

F I G U R E 4-1 : P R O J E C T E D P R I M A R Y S C H O O L AGE P O P U L A T I O N1 975 - 19 9 0 I N M I L L I O N S

I _________________ I_________________ I------------------‘-------------- --- 1----1970 1975 1 9 8 0 1985 1990

SOU RC f : .TABLE 4: 9

46

U.N. (1971:50) indicates that between 1948 and I960, urban growth in

Ghana was 11.5%. The urban proportion in 1960 was 23.1% and this increased

to 28.9% of the total population in 1970, representing an increase in the urbanisation level of 5.8% during the 10-year period. Volumes II and III of

the 1960 and 1970 Ghana Census reports show that settlements of 5,000 people or more are classified as urban; and most settlements previously classified

as villages, are now reaching or exceeding this limit as a result of the

persistence of high fertility in Ghana. As there has not been any significant

change in the urban process in Ghana, manifest in the continuous growth of

towns from rural-urban migration and natural increase, and from the development of new towns, the 1960-70 urban growth rate of 5.8% will persist. On this

basis, the urban proportion is likely to increase from 28.9% in 1970 to 34.7% and 40.5% in 1980 and 1990 respectively. Table 4.10 shows the projected urban

and rural populations of Ghana during the projection period, obtained by applying the projected urban proportions to the projected population (U.N., 1974: 32).

Table 4.10: Projected Urban and Rural Population of Ghana, 1975-1990

Year Series A Series B Series C

URBAN1975 3,138,062 3,138,062 3,138,0621980 3,950,391 3,950,391 3,950,3911985 4,948,444 4,757,729 4,668,5441990 6,175,953 5,791,217 5,593,223RURAL1975 6,730,059 6,730,059 6,730,0591980 7,434,021 7,434,021 7,434,0211985 8,212,311 7,895,806 7,747,7981990 9,073,314 8,508,085 8,217,205

Source: Derived from Appendix 4.5It is seen that at least 5.6 million (Series C) and at most 6.2 million

47

people (Series A) will live in urban areas by 1990, representing 40.5% of

the population. The projected urban and rural primary and middle school-age populations are shown in Table 4.11 and 4.12. These were obtained by using

the U.N. method which involves the following steps:

First percentage distribution by sex-age groups in 1970 were

calculated separately for the total, urban and rural populations;

"ratios are then computed for the percentages in the urban and rural populations by sex and age, relative to the percentages in the total population" (U.N., 1974: 63). The ratios, thus obtained were used as

"correction factors to adjust any projected percent sex and age

distributions of the total population so as to yield corresponding

distributions for the urban and rural populations respectively"(U.N., 1974: 63). The necessary lateral and vertical proration

were then made to achieve correct total population.Table 4.11: Projected Urban and Rural Primary School-Age Population

(6-12 Years), 1975-1990 (Both Sexes)

Year Series A Series B Series C

URBAN1975 555,338 555,338 555,3381980 743,343 743,343 743,3431985 916,944 934,139 939,5631990 1,139,709 1,003,570 936,237RURAL1975 1,263,775 1,263,775 1,263,7751980 1,488,114 1,488,114 1,488,1141985 1,623,348 1,653,790 1,663,3931990 1,791,643 1,577,630 1,471,782

Source: Computed from Tables 4.9 and 4.10These projected figures for rural and urban primary and middle school-age

populations have major repercussions on educational policy in Ghana. They show

clearly that if universal primary education is to be achieved, it is important

48

to provide more schools in the rural areas and to raise rural enrolment

ratios, as the bulk of the school-age population, more especially the primary

school-age population, live in the rural areas. Even if universal primary education is not to be attained, any progressive increases in school enrolments

must occur mainly in the rural areas so as to draw the country nearer to its

goal of universal primary education.

Table 4.12: Projected Urban and Rural Middle School-Age Population (13-16 Years), 1975-1990

Year Series A Series B Series C

URBAN1975 311,250 311,250 311,2501980 408,358 408,358 408,3581985 495,270 494,567 493,9871990 600,806 625,697 634,545RURAL1975 603,491 603,491 603,4911980 691,477 691,477 691,4771985 735,766 734,720 733,8591990 785,615 818,163 829,733

Source As for Table 4.11.

CHAPTER 5

FUTURE FIRST CYCLE SCHOOL ENROLMENTS

5.1 Assumptions Underlying the Projection of School Population5.1.1 Basis for the Enrolment Ratio Assumptions

It was shown in Chapter One that education is important in Ghana and that efforts have been directed at achieving universal primary education. U.N./U.N.E.S.C.O. (1966: 8) explains that "school enrolment is expected to

grow in any dynamic situation where the population is continually increasing or the school system is progressively expanding, or where both developments are taking place." In Ghana, these developments are actually taking place, and school enrolments will no doubt grow. The question arises as to how these school enrolments will grow. The answer to this question lies in the factors that affect school enrolments in Ghana, which may be classified as

demographic, social, political, economic and financial, as well as the

availability of such factors as teachers, textbooks and school buildings.It has been shown in the preceding chapter that based on demographic

factors alone, there will be at least 2.4 million primary school-age children

in 1990. Even though the number of school-age children is important, worsening economic conditions in developing countries have tended to make

financial considerations more important in any attempt to estimate future school enrolments. Socially most parents are willing to send their children

to school and most children are also willing to go to school in Ghana (Achanfuo-Yeboah, 1980).

50

The frequent changes in Government which have characterised the Ghanaian

political scene have also tended to adversely affect the development of education, but most, if not all, Governments have had the common desire of

increasing enrolments tremendously so as to achieve universal primary

education. In trying to make assumptions about future school enrolments in

Ghana, it is important to consider the exodus of teachers to other professions in the neighbouring countries, especially Nigeria. According to G.E.S.

statistics sources, between the 1978-79 and 1980-81 academic years, at least

3,166 teachers were reported to have left the profession throughout Ghana.Even though the exodus may not cease, the presence of the Military Regime and

the enactment of laws making it obligatory for certain persons, especially

Government employees, to have travel permits before being allowed to leave the country, will go a long way towards slowing down the pace of the exodus.

Another pressing problem is educational finance. The worsening economic atmosphere in Ghana has made it impossible for the Government to provide educational facilities for all the children of school-going age. Besides,

both capital and recurrent expenditure on education has shot up drastically, as will be shown later in this chapter. Since no drastic economic improvements

are expected in the country during the projection period, the amount of money required to provide schools for all children of school-age will definitely

be lacking.School enrolments have been increasing despite these difficulties. In

Chapter Three, it was shown that enrolments in primary schools increased by

194% during the 1960-61 and 1978-79 academic years. A new proposal for

universal primary education in Ghana, which takes into consideration the economic realities of the country has just been introduced by the G.E.S.

"The proposals seek to ensure that within ten years, all children of school-going age will have formal education for a period of six to nine years,

51

..." (Ghanaian Times, May 18 1982). This is particularly important to the

present discussion as the available empirical evidence indicates that school enrolments increased tremendously each time new proposals for universal

primary education were made in Ghana. For example, McWilliam (1962: 84) points out that as a result of the Accelerated Development Plan of Education

introduced in 1951, "132,000 children entered Primary One in 1952, more than twice the intake for the previous year." Similar high increases in school enrolments occurred in the early 1960s following the introduction of basic,

fee-free and theoretically compulsory primary education in 1961, and it would

be reasonable to assume that some high increases will occur with these new proposals.

The de-emphasising of boarding facilities in First and Second

Cycle institutions will make a lot of money available to expand primary school facilities. The Government, the G.E.S. and the Ghana National

Association of Teachers (G.N.A.T.) have all put forward proposals for de-emphsising boarding facilities as a means of reducing the cost of education

(see, for example, Ghanaian Times of November 14 1981). Furthermore, "a Task Force has been set up to pursue the policy of de-emphasising the

boarding schools system" (Ghana, Ministry of Economic Planning, 1981: 63).This means that even if the economic situation does not improve, some additional money will become available for the provision of more First Cycle

school facilities.From the foregoing analysis, it is certain that because of the problems

facing educational development in Ghana, such as high fertility, lack of finance and exodus of teachers, universal primary education is not likely to

be attained during the projection period, even though high increases in enrolment are still possible under present conditions. In 1970 the enrolment

ratio for children of school-age (both sexes) stood at 70.1% and 69.8%

for primary and middle schools respectively (G.E.S. statistics sources) and

52

these increased to 80% in the early 1980s (Ghanaian Times of May 18, 1982)

despite the economic difficulties (see alo Jones, 1972: 299, cited in Gaisie, 1973: 258).

5.1.2 Enrolment Ratio Assumptions (Both Sexes)

Two series of assumptions are made for each of the primary and middle schools as follows:

PRIMARY

Series 1: The 1970 enrolment ratio of 70% will increase linearly to 80%

in 1980 and remain so for the rest of the projection period. Series 2: The 1970 enrolment ratio of 70% will increase linearly to 85%

in 1985 and remain so for the rest of the projection

period.MIDDLE

Series 1: As for primary school Series 1.Series 2: As for primary school Series 2.

5.2 Projected First Cycle School Enrolments for GhanaTable 5.1 shows projected First Cycle school enrolments for Ghana from

1975 to 1990. The assumed enrolment ratios were applied to the projected primary and middle school-age populations to obtain two series of primary and middle school enrolments each of which is classified as A, B and C to

correspond with the series in the population projections (see, for example, Bogue, 1979: 11 and U.N./U.N.E.S.C.O., 1966: 20). There will be at least

1.9 million children in primary schools in 1990 (Series lc), while the

highest number of children likely to be enrolled in primary schools in

1990 is 2.5 million (Series 2A) . Similar increases are observed for middle

schools (see also Figure 5.1,Weis (1981: 313) shows that the proportion of girls in the school

population of Ghana has increased from 38% and 31% in 1961 for primary

52b

f i g u r e

3

2 -

1

0 ___1970

1: P R O J E C T E D P R I M A R t S C H O O L E N R O L M E N T S

19 75-19 90 in m i l l i o n s

SERIES 2 A

SERIES 2 B

Se r i e s 2C

1975 1 980 1 9 8 5— I--------19 90

S O U R C E : T A B L E 5 1

53

and middle schools respectively, to 44% and 41% for the two levels by 1973:

Weis (1981: 313) pionts out that "clearly there has been some levelling off in terms of recruitment by sex at the primary and middle levels." The

proportion of girls enrolled is not likely to drop as it is the aim of

the present Government to eliminate sex differentials in the admission of

pupils (see, for example, Ghana Reports Issue of August, 1982). The Ghana Government also accepts the view that "increasing the proportion of girls

entering and completing schools was necessary in any attempt to reduce

fertility in Ghana" (U.N., 1978: 46). Thus even if we assume a constant

proportion of 44% for females in the school population, there will be at

least 847,623 girls in primary schools in Ghana by 1990 (Series 1C), and

at most 1,096,326 at the same time (Series 2A). This proportion is, however,

likely to rise a little to about 47.5% by 1990 in which case there will be 915,048 and 1,183,533 female pupils under Series 1C and 2A respectively at the end of the projection period. Similar increases are expected for the proportion of girls in the middle schools. In the light of the already discussed evidence on trends of school enrolments in Ghana, Series 2 and especially 2B seem most plausible and would be used for the distribution of

pupils by grade (Table 5.2).

Table 5.1: Projected Primary and Middle School Enrolments for Ghana (Both Sexes), 1975-1990

YearA

Series 1 B C A

Series 2 B C

PRIMARY1975 1,364,335 1,364,335 1,364,335 1,364,335 1,364,335 1,364,3351980 1,785,166 1,785,166 1,785,166 1,785,166 1,785,166 1,785,1661985 2,032,234 2,070,343 2,082,365 2,159,248 2,199,740 2,212,5161990 2,345,082 2,064,960 1,926,415 2,491,649 2,194,020 2,046,816MIDDLE1975 686,056 686,056 686,056 686,056 686,056 686,0561980 879,868 879,868 879,868 879,868 879,868 879,8681985 984,829 983,430 982,277 1,040,381 1,044,894 1,043,6691990 1,109,137 1,155,088 1,171,422 1,178,458 1,227,281 1,244,636

Source: Computed from Table 4.9

54

The Grade Enrolment technique is used to distribute pupils by Grade

(see Bogue, 1979: 12). This consists of calculating the proportion of pupils

enrolled at each grade for an initial year (1978-79 in this case), and the

adjustment of the proportions for subsequent periods. Bogue (1979) explains

that these proportions hardly change, but it may appear that this assertion is rather true for developed societies where enrolment ratio is constant

(100%). In developing societies where the enrolment ratio is rising, the proportions are likely to change, other things like Grade Retention ratios

being held constant. Even so, Appendix 5.3 indicates that in Ghana, there

have been very little differences in both the observed and estimated proportions

for each grade for each five-year period since 1970. The proportions are basically the same for most grades if only two decimal places are used in the analysis. These estimated proportions were obtained by computing the

increase or decrease for each grade during the period 1975 and 1979, and assuming that this change, which is part of a general trend of increases in grade enrolments as discussed in Chapter Three, will continue.

The generally slight differences in the proportions of pupils enrolled

in each grade for each five-year period duing the projection period is explained by the fact that increases in Primary One enrolments, resulting from rising enrolment ratios, have been accompanied by improvements in grade

retention ratios and a fall in dropout rates. The result was that, during the 1970s, Primary classes Two, Three, Four, Five and Six, for example, had

relatively many students, higher than previous years, to balance the increases

in Primary One enrolment, and hence the occurrence of very slight changes in

the proportions of students enrolled in each grade. The same is true for

the Middle Forms One, Two and Three. It is seen that the proportion for Middle

Form Four has been decreasing. This is due to the rapid expansion in

secondary school education which has taken place since 1970, resulting in

many pupils leaving Middle Forms Two and Three, especially the latter, for

55

secondary schools. It should also be noted that the highest grade that a

pupil can leave the Middle School for a public secondary school in Ghana

is Middle Form Three, as public secondary schools do not admit Middle Form Four pupils because of their age. So that many Middle Form Three pupils

actually try to get places in public secondary schools, resulting in

comparatively fewer pupils getting to Middle Form Four. As secondary school

education expands, the proportion of pupils enrolled in Middle Form Four in Ghana will, as expected, continue to fall.

A glance at Table 5.2 reveals a steady increase in enrolment for most

grades from 1975-1990, with a slight decline from 1985-1990 for primary

classes, which is the result of the assumed fertility decline on primary

school-age population and primary school enrolments. The enrolments in the various grades have been obtained by applying the observed and estimated

proportions to the projected school populations (Table 5.1). The 1985 estimated proportion is held constant for 1990 as no further change occurs in enrolment ratio.

Table 5.2: Projected School Enrolments by Gradefor Ghana, 1975-1990 (Both Sexes), Series 2B

Grade/Year 1975 1980 1985 1990PRIMARY CLASS

1 298,789 396,307 492,742 491,4602 246,945 328,471 411,351 410,2823 230,573 305,263 380,555 379,5654 215,565 285,627 356,358 355,4315 188,278 248,138 305,764 304,9696 174,635 230,286 283,766 283,029

MIDDLE FORM1 201,014 260,441 312,423 366,9572 179,747 234,925 282,121 331,3663 164,653 213,808 257,044 301,9114 141,328 168,055 183,901 216,001

Source: Computed from Table 5.1

56

Unlike the primary school, middle school enrolments increased steadily

for all grades from 1975-1990. This is explained by the fact that while the primary school population would be affected by the assumed low fertility

of the 1980s, the middle school popu. tion of 1990 would have been born long

before the onset of the assumed fertility decline and would have lived to enjoy the assumed low mortality levels of the 1980s.

According to the 1970 Population Census Report Volume II, 86% of the urban primary school-age population were enrolled as compared with 54% for

the rural areas. It is also indicated that, of the total number of pupils

enrolled in the primary school, 65% lived in the rural areas as against 35%

in the urban areas. This is expected as about 70% of the population at the time lived in rural areas, and as the enrolment ratio for the primary

school-age population was 70% for the country as a whole.Even if we assume this proportion of rural pupils of 65% to remain constant during the projection period, there will be at least 1,252,169 and 674,245

pupils in the rural and urban primary schools respectively in 1990 (Series 1C), as compared with a maximum enrolment of 1,619,572 and 872,077 for rural and

urban areas resepectively (Series 2A). The proportion of the country's middle school population living in urban and rural areas in 1970 was 34.6% and 65.4% respectively (1970 Census Report, Vol. II). The projected urban and rural

middle school populations are shown in Appendices 5.1 and 5.2. The maximum

urban and rural middle school enrolment by 1990 is 430,644 and 813,992 (Series

2C), as compared with the minimum of 383,762 and 725,376 for urban and rural areas respectively (Series 1A).

5.3 Policy Implications of the Projected School-age Population andSchool Enrolments

It is important, at this stage, to examine the implications of the projected school-age and school populations for educational policy with

regard to the requirement for teachers, schools and textbooks, as well as

57

the cost involved. As the O.E.C.D. (1967a: 10) points out, "in addition to student flows and stocks, it would also be necessary to set out a

corresponding statement of economic flows and stocks, namely of teachers,

materials, equipment and buildings necessary to operate .... the system."

The projected school enrolments (Table 5.1) indicate that there is the need to put more resources into education. It is also evident that at

the 80% enrolment level, Ghana would not be able to provide education for over half a million children of primary school age by 1990 (Series 1A).

These figures are slightly lower for Series 2 where an assumption of 85%

enrolment ratio is made. Under Series 2, some 387,000 children will not

get access to primary school education by 1990 (Series 2B). The corresponding figure for the middle school is a little over 200,000. This means that educational policy must aim at raising the enrolment ratio progressively

so that as many children of school-going age as possible will gain places in schools.

Ghana Ministry of Education (1973: 23) shows that in 1970, there were 328,828 teachers in the primary school system with an overall national pupil-teacher ratio of 28.9 for the primary school (see, also, Jones, 1972: 299)

cited in Gaisie, 1973: 258). The corresponding figure for the middle school was 14,132 teachers and 31.4 pupil-teacher ratio (Ghana Ministry of Education,

1973: 50). With these pupil-teacher ratios, Ghana would require at least 66,658 primary school teachers by 1990 (Series 1C), 71,452 under Series IB

and 81,145 under Series 1A. The corresponding figures for Series 2C, 2B and

2A are 70,824, 75,918 and 86,216 respectively. Since the tendency is for

the pupil-teacher ratio to drop with improvements in education, a greater

number of teachers may be required. Teacher requirements for the middle

school level by 1990 would be 35,323, 36,782 and 37,306 under Series 1A, IB

and 1C respectively, and 37,530, 39,085 and 39638 under series 2A, 2B and 2C.

58

In 1970, there were 7,008 primary and 3,546 middle schools in Ghana

(Ghana Ministry of Education, 1973: 23 and 50). This gives an average of

135.2 pupils per school in the primary and 125.2 in the middle schools, as

there were 947,502 pupils in primary and 443,842 pupils in middle schools

in 1970. Under this ratio, Ghana would need 17,345, 15,273 and 14,249 primary schools by 1990 under Series 1A, IB and 1C respectively, and 18,429, 16,228

and 15,139 under Series 2A, 2B and 2C. The corresponding figures for the

middle school level would be 8,859, 9,226 and 9,356 under Series 1A, IB and

1C respectively and 9,413, 9,803 and 9,941 under Series 2A, 2B and 2C. It is

evident that the number of schools would have to be increased tremendously.

In the past the number of schools required has been reduced by using the "shift system", by which the same school building is used by two streams of students, one stream in the morning and the other in the afternoon. If the "shift system" is used, the number of schools would be reduced drastically, but it should be borne in‘mind that this system has tended to lower the quality of education, ahd has been "terminated in some areas" (Abbey, 1972: 2

cited in Gaisie, 1973: 258). Other school materials such as textbooks would also be needed in large quantities. U.N.E.S.C.O.'s promise to give Ghana $200,000 worth of coupons and paper to print textbooks (Ghana Reports Issue

of August, 1982) will reduce the cost of providing textbooks.

The estimated school—age population and the school population

have serious repercussions on financing and cost of education. In 1970 the

equivalent of $9.8 (U.S.) was spent on each primary and $10.7 (U.S.) on each

middle school child, according to G.E.S. statistics sources. in terms of

cost, it is very wrong to assume constant expenditure on education, especially m Ghana where, for example, tremendous increases in teaching staff remuneration

would make nonsense of such an assumption. Jones and Kayani (1971) rightly

59

indicate that one of the mistakes made in such projections is to assume that

the unit cost of education can somehow be held constant, and that in reality

this is never the case. The 1970 unit recurrent and capital expenditure

increased to $18.80 for primary and $27.00 for middle school levels in 1975,

showing a quinquennial increase of 91.8% and 152% for the two levels

respectively (G.E.S. statistics sources). The problem with data on education

finance is that it is less accurate, as there has been cases of inflation

of staff salaries and misappropriation of funds by head teachers and senior

educational personnel. If these rates of increase continue, as it is very

likely, Ghana would need the amount of money shown in Table 5.3 to provide

education for the projected school population at the specified periods.

Table 5.3: Recorded and Projected Recurrent and Capital Expenditure on First Cycle Education in Thousands of U.S.$

Year Series 1 Series 2A B C A B C

PRIMARYRECORDED1970 9,285 9,285 9,285 9,285 9,285 9,285PROJECTED1975 25,649 25,649 25,649 25,649 25,649 25,6491980 49,627 49,627 49,627 49,627 49,627 49,6271985 74,786 76,188 76,631 79,460 80,950 81,4201990 107,167 94,368 88,037 113,868 100,267 93,539MIDDLERECORDED1970 4,749 4,749 4,749 4,749 4,749 4,749PROJECTED1975 18,523 18,523 18,523 18,523 18,523 18,5231980 38,098 38,098 38,098 39,098 38,098 38,0981985 58,696 58,612 58,544 62,678 62,276 62,2031990 84,183 87,671 88,911 89,495 93,151 94,468

Source: Computed from Table 5.1 using expenditure statistics from the G.E.S.

60

Thus Ghana's recurrent and capital expenditure on primary education will increase from $9,285,000 in 1970 to at least $88,037,000 in 1990 (Series lc). Similarly, the middle school expenditure would increase from $4,749,000 in

1970 to at least $84,183,000 in 1990 (Series 1A).

CHAPTER SIX

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

6.1 Summary

Throughout this work, an effort has been made to achieve the stated

objectives, namely to find out the First Cycle school-age population for each five-year period from 1970 to 1990, the likely school population for the said

periods and the accompanying implications for cost, teachers, school buildings and related factors.

In Chapter One, the importance of education in Ghana, the rationale behind

the study, the scope of the study, as well as the limitations of the study were discussed. It was shown that education is very important in Ghana and that

this study is intended to be useful as it is expected to help overcome the

problem of lack of data on future school enrolments, and as its findings are

expected to have major educational policy implications. In the second chapter,

relevant literature was reviewed. This review revealed that little work has

been done on future First Cycle school enrolments in Ghana, and that there is

the need for more research in this area. In Chapter Three, the discussion

centred on the educational system of Ghana: Among other things, the Chapter

examined the aims of education in Ghana as well as various school statistics.It was seen in this Chapter that education in Ghana aims at increasing enrolment

progressively to achieve universal primary education. The Chapter also showed

62

that primary school enrolment increased by 194% between the 1960-61 and the

1978-79 academic years, and that a similar increase has been recorded for the middle school level. Another important finding of the Chapter was the disparity in enrolments by area and sex. It was shown that urban areas had

higher enrolment ratios than rural areas and that male enrolment ratios had

been higher than those of females in all areas. The Chapter ended with an

examination of the efficiency of the school system, showing that there is inefficiency in the system as is evident from the dropout rates, the amount of

money that is spent, to little, if any avail, and other related issues.

An attempt has been made to estimate future First Cycle school-age populations for Ghana for each five-year period between 1970 and 1990 in the

fourth chapter. This begins with an evaluation and adjustment of the 1970

observed data which have been used for the projections. The data were evaluated

using sex and age ratios, U.N., Myers' and Whipple's indices and adjustments were made using various statistical procedures including the Oblique-Axis (Carrier-Farraq), Osculatory Interpolation and other graduation techniques. The Chapter showed that Ghana's population would increase by at least 5.3 million by 1990 and that, if no changes occur in the fertility and mortality levels in

1970, the population would increase by 78% to 15,249,266 by 1990, an increase of 6.7 million. It was also observed that at least 2.4 million children would require primary education by 1990, while on the basis of the 1970 fertility

and mortality levels, the number will be 2.9 million. Similar increases have

been observed for the middle school level.Finally, Chapter Five discusses the projected First Cycle school enrolments

for Ghana and shows that the minimum and maximum number of pupils likely to be admitted to primary school by 1990 are 1.9 and 2.5 million. The Chapter

showed that on the basis of the proportion of girls enrolled in 1970, at least

0.8 million girls would be in school in 1990, while the maximum figure would be

63

1.0 million. It has also been shown that even if we assume that the proportion

of the rural primary school pupils in 1970 would remain constant, there will

be at least 1.3 million and 0.6 million primary shool pupils in rural and

urban areas respectively. Similarly, the minimum rural and urban middle

school enrolments would be 0.7 million and 0.3 million respectively.

The policy implications of the projected school enrolments were also

discussed in Chapter Five. It was shown that under Series 2, where an

assumption of 85% enrolment is made some 387,000 children would not get

access to education by 1990 and that the figure is even higher under Series 1, where 80% enrolment is assumed. Again using the 1970 pupil-teacher ratios of

28.9 and 31.4 for primary and middle schools respectively, at least 66,658

primary and 35,323 middle school teachers would be required in 1990, while the recurrent and capital expenditure on primary education would increase from $9 million in 1970 to at least $88 million in 1990.

6.2 ConclusionThe standpoint taken in this thesis is that universal primary education

cannot be attained in Ghana during the projection period, unless more resources - human, financial, material and otherwise - are channelled into education. The thesis also accepts the view that high increases in enrolment are possible even though universal primary education is inconceivable between

1970 and 1990. To maintain the health of Ghana's education and to make

possible high increases in enrolment in the primary and middle schools, an

important prerequisite is to increase the present level of resources put

into education.The Government, Ministry of Education and the G.E.S. should endeavour

to provide more funds for the development of First Cycle institutions, provide more school buildings, furniture, textbooks and other school materials; and

64

improve upon the remuneration and other conditions of service of both

the teaching and the non-teaching or support staff. It is also necessary to ensure that existing facilities are fully utilised, especially in the

ruarl areas where reports of under-utilisation of existing facilities have

been made in the 1975-76 to 1980-81 five-year Development Plan. It is also the fervent belief of the author that unless the real benefits of education are realised by the Government, parents and pupils, high increases

in enrolment would not be feasible. In this regard the present work asserts that it is important to modernise education, motivate children to stay in

school by reducing dropout and repetition rates and raise the general level

of efficiency in the school system.There is also the need to restructure the content of education so that

school graduates will be equipped with the basic skills and knowledge

necessary for them to obtain jobs and earn a living, as the mismatch between the available job opportunities and the pattern of educational output has tended to adversely affect school enrolments. This brings to mind the implementation of the New Structure and Content of Education for Ghana. It

is the view of the writer that more meaningful effort should be made to implement the New Structure and Content of Education if enrolments are to increase tremendously and if greater benefits are to be derived from education. This is because the New Structure has a good practical content,

is based on local conditions and is likely to attract the interest of

children who may thus be motivated to stay in school longer. Besides, the

good practical content of the proposed new educational system means that education would be geared to the manpower needs of the country, parents and

pupils. Unfortunately, a detailed analysis of the content of education is

beyond the scope of this study.

65

It is also necessary to find out if Ghana is capable of meeting the

estimated requirements for teachers and school buildings as well as the

projected cost of First Cycle Education. It is interesting to learn that

Ghana's Teacher Education Program is capable of supplying the projected number of teachers, so that the problem is not the output of teachers from

the teacher training colleges. The basic problem is the lack of effective

machinery to check the exodus of teachers from the profession. As explained

earlier in Chapter Five, the recently introduced measures such as the

improvements in the remuneration and conditions of service for teachers and the fact that teachers must obtain travel permits before being allowed

to leave the country will slow down the pace of the exodus; one cannot be very certain as to how effective these will be, neither can one be conclusive as to how long the measures will be sustained. It is hoped, however, that

these measures may lead to the slowing down of the pace of the exodus in the near future.

It is even more difficult and complex to assess the potential of the

country to provide the projected number of school buildings and to meet

its financial obligations inherent in the estimated future cost of First Cycle Education. This is because fluctuations and the generally downward

trend in the economic situation in Ghana are now becoming endemic, and one cannot be very certain regarding improvements in the economy during the projection period. If this is examined from the point of view of efforts

being made to reduce the cost of education, such as the de-emphasising of

boarding facilities at all levels of education, it is realised that some

additional money will be released for the development of First Cycle Education. It was shown in Chapter Five that a task force has actually

been set up to de-emphasise boarding education with a view to making

education less expensive and rechannelling resources from boarding schools

66

to First Cycle Eeucation. It is hoped that these measures will succeed

and if they do, then the country will be able to meet fully the financial

requirements made in the analysis in Section 5.3 and subsequently provide

the required number of school buildings.

Finally it is useful, at this stage, to look at other interesting

and related areas for further research, which fall outside the scope of the present study. An equally useful, interesting and challenging exercise

would be to extend the scope of this study to cover enrolment in Second

Cycle and tertiary institutions, to examine the content of education at

all levels and to link it with the manpower needs of the country. It will also be interesting to find out if school enrolments conform to the pattern of

any of the mathematical curves, such as the Linear, Logistic, Exponential,

Modified Exponential or Gompertz curves. Theoretically, school enrolments appear to follow the pattern exhibited in the Logistic Curve (figure 6.1).

Time ScaleFigure 6.1: The Logistic Curve

0

67

When a country starts to provide primary education, the enrolment ratio

is very low. This increases gradually ('a-b') until efforts are made to

achieve universal primary education. When plans are introduced and

implemented to achieve universal primary education, the curve approaches the vertical, represented by 'b-c' in Figure 6.1. As the enrolment ratio

increases rapidly to reach 100%, the curve becomes more and more vertical

and flattens out when universal primary education is attained, as shown by

'c-d' in Figure 6.1. Three basic stages can thus be identified in the curve: 'a-b' representing the initial period when enrolments gradually

increase, 'b-c' representing the period of rapid increases in enrolment

associated with the introduction and implementation of universal primary education programs and 'c-d' which is the final phase representing the

period when all children of school age get places in schools and when the number of pupils enrolled is equal to the number of children of school age.

This curve may theoretically be considered as the stages in the transition from no or little education to universal education, at least, at the primary

school leve.It is virtually impossible to generalise about the time taken to

complete the three stages. Like the demographic transition, the time taken

to go from 'a-d' would depend on how rapidly universal primary education is attained in individual countries as determined by their respective financial,

human and material resources. There is, however, a need for more research in this area, especially in practical terms, to find out if there will be

any empirical evidence to support it. No attempt has been made to find

evidence from Ghana in this work because Ghana, like other developing countries, has not attained universal primary education and Stage 3 is, thus,

non-existent. Furthermore, the country lacks basic data on school enrolment

68

at the initial stages of school development. In fact, the problem of data

is likely to be a major hindrance to finding empirical evidence in this

regard for, as the O.E.C.D. (1967a) explains, data on student flows, in

even the advanced countries, are only available for recent years. The

author strongly believes, however, that further research may unearth valuable empirical information to support the proposals, and that such

research is worth the effort.

Another area for further research will be to project the number of

teachers produced from the country's teacher education programs, to find

out the number of graduates from second and third cycles taking up teaching

careers, in order to ascertain the exact levels of output of teachers in the country.

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JO N E S , G.W . a n d KAYANI, A .K . ,

1 9 7 1 P o p u l a t i o n G r o w t h a n d E d u c a t i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t

i n C e y l o n , C e y l o n , C a x t o n .

KNIGHT, J . B . ,

1 9 6 6 T h e C o s t i n g a n d F i n a n c i n g o f E d u c a t i o n a l

D e v e l o p m e n t i n T a n z a n i a , P a r i s , U . N . E . S . C . O .

KOMORA, Y . ,

1 9 7 2 " P o p u l a t i o n G r o w t h a n d E d u c a t i o n a l P l a n n i n g

i n K e n y a " i n P o p u l a t i o n G r o w t h a n d E c o n o m i c

D e v e l o p m e n t i n A f r i c a , e d s . S . H . O m in d e a n d

C . N . E j i o g u , p p . 3 3 2 - 3 3 5 , New Y o r k , H e i n e m a n .

KPEDEKPO, G . M . ,

1 9 7 2 " T a b l e s o f S c h o o l L i f e f o r G h a n a 1 9 6 0 " i n

P o p u l a t i o n G r o w t h a n d E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t i n

A f r i c a , e d s . S . H . O m in d e a n d C . N . E j i o g u ,

p p . 3 3 6 - 3 4 0 , New Y o r k , H e i n e m a n .

McWILLIAM, H . O . A . ,

1 9 6 2 T h e D e v e l o p m e n t o f E d u c a t i o n i n G h a n a , A c c r a ,

L o n g m a n .

MATTILA, J . P . ,

1 9 8 2 " D e t e r m i n a n t s o f M a l e S c h o o l E n r o l m e n t s : A

T im e S e r i e s A n a l y s i s " i n T h e R e v i e w o f E c o n o m i c s

and S t a t i s t i c s , e d s . H . S . H o u t h a k k e r , p p . 2 4 2 - 2 5 1

W o r c e s t e r , H a r v a r d .

74

ORGANISATIONCO-OPERATION

1967a

1967b

1977

1978

OKURONTIFA,

1979

SHORTER, F.C

1974

UCHE, P.I.,

1980

FOR ECONOMIC AND DEVELOPMENT

Mathematical Models in Eucational Planning,

Paris, Organisation for Economic Co-operation

and Development.

Methods and Statistical Needs for Educational

Planning, Paris, Organisation for Economic

Co-operation and Development.

Educational Policies and Trends in the Context

of Social and Economic Development

Perspective, Geneva, Organisation for Economic

Co-operation and Development.

Planning for Growing Populations, Paris,

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

Development.

?.o.,

"Consequences of Population Change for

Education in Africa" in Population Education

Sourcebook for Africa, ed. R. Udo, pp. 159-170,

Nairobi, Heineman.

• i

Computation Methods for Population Projections,

New York, Population Council.

"Some Statistical Enrolment Models for

Developing Countries, Education and Development

Series, Vol. 1, No. 1, London, Nigeria Education

Research Council.

75

UNITED NATIONS,

1956

1971

1974

1978

1979

UNITED NATIONS/UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND CULTURAL ORGANISATION

1966

VAIZEY, J. and CHESSWAS, J.

1967

WEIS, L.,

1981

Manual III: Methods for Population Projections

by Sex and Age, New York, United Nations.

Demographic Handbook of Africa, New York,

United Nations.

Manual VIII: Methods for Projections of Urban

Rural Population, New York, United Nations.

National Experience in the Formulation and

Implementation of Population Policy; Ghana,

New York, United Nations.

Prospects of Population: Methodology and

Assumptions, New York, United Nations.

Estimating Future School Enrolments in

Developing Countries, Paris, United Nations

Educational, Scientific and Cultural

Organisation.

The Costing of Educational Plans, Paris, United

Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural

Organisation.

"Schooling and Patterns of Access in Ghana",

Canadian Journal of African Studies, Vol. 15,

No. 2, Montreal, Canadian Association of

African Studies.

76

YEBOAH, L.

1979 Fertility and Mortality Analysis for the

Mphorhor District of Ghana. Unpublished

Seminar Paper, Legon, Regional Institute

for Population Studies.

77

APPENDIX 3.1

School Enrolments in Ghana/ 1960-61 to 1978-79 (Both Sexes)

AcademicYear Primary

% Increase Between

Successive Years Middle% Increase Between

Successive Years

1960-61 441,117 151,3371961-62 641,770 45.5 184,292 21.81962-63 788.088 22.8 202,523 9.91963-64 928,638 17.8 221,469 9.41964-65 1,066,506 14.9 246,933 11.51965-66 1,137,495 6.7 267,434 8.31966-67 1,116,843 -1.8 289,566 8.31967-68 1,072,523 -4.0 329,679 13.91968-69 1,015,454 -5.3 381,569 15.71969-70 973,629 -4.1 424,430 11.21970-71 947,502 -2.7 443,842 4.61971-72 960,398 -1.4 455,398 2.61972-73 1,000,510 4.2 446,693 -1.91973-74 1,014,964 1.4 440,065 -1. 51974-75 1,051,012 3.6 439,657 - 0.11975-76 1,157,303 10.1 451,462 2.71976-77 1,213,291 4.8 464,614 2.91977-78 1,246,482 2.7 474,344 2.11978-79 1,295,525 3.9 489,209 3.1

Source: Derived from data from G.E.S. statistics sources.

78

APPENDIX 3.2

Distribution of Ghana Primary School Pupils by Sex,

1960-61 to 1978-79

Academic Both % %Year Sexes Boys Boys Girls Girls

1960-61 441,117 281,398 63.8 159,719 36.21961-62 641,770 395,892 61.7 245,878 38.31962-63 788,088 473,925 60.1 314,163 39.91963-64 928,638 543,311 58.5 385,327 41.51964-65 1,066,506 609,504 57.2 457,012 42.81965-66 1,137,495 639,230 56.2 498,265 43.81966-67 1,116,843 621,184 55.6 495,659 44.41967-68 1,072,523 594,917 55.5 477,606 44.51968-69 1,015,454 564,263 55.6 451,191 44.41969-70 973,629 542,543 55.6 432,086 44.41970-71 947,502 527.177 55.6 420,325 44.41971-72 960,398 536,493 55.9 423,905 44.11972-73 1,000,510 561,064 56.1 439,464 43.91973-74 1,014,964 573,025 56.5 441,909 43.51974-75 1,051,012 592,044 56.3 458,968 43.71975-76 1,157,303 564,621 56.6 502,682 43.41976-77 1,213,291 685,644 56.5 527,649 43.51977-78 1,246,482 702,702 56.4 543,780 43.61978-79 1,295,525 725,464 56.0 570,061 44.0

Source: Derived from data from G.E.S. statistics sources.

79

APPENDIX 3.3

Distribution of Ghana Middle School Pupils by Sex,

1960-61 to 1978-79

AcademicYear

BothSexes Boys

%Boys Girls

%Girls

1960-61 151,337 107,553 71.1 43,784 29.91961-62 184,292 127,607 69.2 566,685 30.81962-63 202,523 140,091 69.2 62,438 30.81963-64 221,469 152,380 68.8 69.089 31.21964-65 246,933 166,367 67.4 80,566 32.61965-66 267,434 180,449 67.5 86,985 32.51966-67 289,566 196,040 67.7 93,526 32.31967-68 329,679 213,174 64.7 116,505 35.31968-69 381,569 241,318 63.2 140,251 36.81969-70 424,430 261,322 61.6 163,108 38.41970-71 443,842 267,265 60.2 176,577 39.81971-72 455,398 271,216 59.6 184,182 40.41972-73 446,693 262,530 58.8 184,163 41.21973-74 440,065 258,820 58.8 181,245 41.21974-75 439,657 258,798 58.9 189,859 41.11975-76 451,462 267,523 59.3 183,939 40.71976-77 464,614 277,256 59.7 187,358 40.31977-78 474,344 280,824 59.2 193,520 40.81978-79 489,209 291,384 59.6 197,827 40.4

Source: Derived from data from G.E.S. statistics sources

Increase i

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82

APPENDIX 4.1

Whipple's Index for the 1970 Observed Population of Ghana

TotalAge Population Males Females

23 106,190 50,109 21,93424 127,482 55,234 72,24825-29 631,426 289,945 341,48130-34 560,497 263,630 296,86735-39 438,301 221,446 216,85540-44 350,046 174,420 175,62645-49 272,066 144,014 128,05250-54 231,437 119,660 111,77755-59 142,516 76,473 66,04360 85,423 44,005 41,41861 11,577 6,145 10,054

Sum 2,977,771 1,455,837 1,521,934

Age25 178,375 79,501 98,87430 239,243 102,935 136,30835 144,828 72,162 72,66640 178,832 84,132 94,70045 111,374 59,283 52,09150 115,863 58,363 57,50055 38,306 20,593 17,71360 85,423 44,005 41,418

Sum 1,092,244 520,974 571,270

IndexValue 183.4 178.9 187.7

83

APPENDIX 4.2

1970 Graduated Male Population of Ghana

AgeGroup SKJ.FOR

Graduation Technique Oblique-

Hill Axis Quadratic Osculatory

0-4 838.805 835,675 847,1315-9 655,234 660,791 659,21410-14 532,330 525,763 509,485 513,666 512,12115-19 409,361 400,338 403,996 399,815 401,36020-24 329,385 324,181 321,276 324,541 320,66725-29 285,817 289,892 274,255 270,990 274,86430-34 252,282 260,815 261,479 259,857 257,94835-39 214,237 220,042 223,597 223,219 227,12840-44 174,268 176,919 177,162 197,276 178.50945-49 138,670 140,253 141,272 141,158 139,92550-54 109,181 109,958 109,670 110,279 110,40555-59 85,167 85,070 86,463 85,854 85,72860-64 65,565 65,622 67,40065+ 157,507 152,489

TOTAL 4,247,809 4,247,809

Source: Computed by the author using the mentioned statistical techniques.

84

APPENDIX 4.3

1970 Graduated Female Population of Ghana

AgeGroup SKJ.FOR

Graduation Technique Oblique-

Hill Axis Quadratic Obsculatory

0-4 827,050 827,704 885,2615-9 649,637 647,397 621,68910-14 522,114 507,297 473,765 482,992 470,31115-19 419,457 417,098 393,479 384,252 396,93320-24 368,064 369,859 381,946 380,608 374,80225-29 332,118 344,878 335,080 336,418 342,22430-34 280,356 291,015 284,341 282,695 284,39435-39 221,168 223,555 229,381 231,024 229,32840-44 169,568 168,224 171,048 172,340 173,00245-49 129,582 128,454 132,630 131,338 130,67650-54 99,717 98,598 103,814 104,483 103,50755-59 77,566 76,558 81,889 81,220 82,19660-64 61,119 60,939 65,84965+ 153,988 179,929 51,719

TOTAL 4,311,504 4,311,504

Source: As for Appendix 4.3.

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86

APPENDIX 5.1

Projected Rural and Urban Primary School Enrolments,1975-1990

Year ASeries 1

B C ASeries 2

B C

RURAL1975 886,818 886,818 886,818 886,818 886,818 886,8181980 1,160,358 1,160,358 1,160,358 1,160,358 1,160,350 1,160,3581985 1,320,952 1,345,723 1,353,537 1,403,511 1,429,831 1,438,1351990 1,524,303 1,342,224 1,252,169 1,619,572 1,426,113 1,330,430

URBAN1975 477,517 477,517 477,517 477,517 477,517 477,5171980 624,808 624,808 624,808 624,808 624,808 624,8081985 711,282 724,621 728,828 755,737 769,909 774,3811990 820,779 722,736 674,245 872,077 767,907 716,386

Source: Computed from Table 5.1.

87

APPENDIX 5.2

Projected Rural and Urban Middle School Enrolments,

1975-1990

Year ASeries 1

B C ASeries 2

B C

RURAL1975 448,681 448,681 448,681 448,681 448,681 448,6811980 575,434 575,434 575,434 575,434 575,434 575,4341985 644,078 643,163 643,409 684,333 683,361 682,5601990 725,376 755,428 766,110 770,712 802,642 813,992

URBAN1975 237,375 237,375 237,375 237,375 237,375 237,3751980 304,434 304,434 304,434 304,434 304,434 304,4341985 340,751 340,267 339,868 362,048 361,533 361,1091990 383,762 399,661 405,312 407,747 424,639 430,644

Source: As for Appendix 5.1.