Estimating expenditure

Links with CARESIM

• PSSRU model provides weights to CARESIM– broken down by age/gender/marital status/housing

tenure for six different service categories – 3 residential, 3 home care

– for each projection year up to 2022– to be developed?

• CARESIM model provides to PSSRU model– projected trend in % of care home residents and

home care clients eligible for state support– projected average % of care home and home care

fees met by state supported service users– projected average % of user charges and private

payments met using disability benefits

Source of funding

• For each service, service users divided into:– NHS funded (DH data/assumed)– PSS funded (DH data)– Privately funded (assumed)

• Trend in ratio of private to PSS provided by CARESIM

Expenditure (1)

• Volume for community-based calculated– Intensity per week by dependency

group/CARESIM grouping (GHS - scaled for some services)

• Weekly expenditure calculated– Cost attached to each unit of service

delivered (PSSRU, DH)– variations by source of funding– UC uprated by 2% per year, different

assumptions explored in scenarios

Expenditure (2)• Recovery of charges

– For each service (PSS EX1)– For PSS funded: % recovered from CARESIM

• Other services– Assessment and care management– ?supporting people, direct payments etc

• Annual expenditure calculated– By service, source of funding and source of

contribution (benefits/other)– For PSS/private funded: % disability benefits towards

user charges/private from CARESIM– Grossed by location of care (PSS EX1)– Proportion of GDP (treasury assumptions re growth)