Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Emissions associated with...
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Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Emissions associated with Agriculture
(Food Production) in SSEA
Atul K JainUniversity of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
Email: [email protected]
AcknowledgementsXiaoming Xu and other past and present lab members
NASA, DOE and Non-Profit Organization: Plant Pure Community Inc.
An Intl Regional Science MeetingJohor Bahru, Malaysia 22-24 July, 2019
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How Much is the Current Contribution of AFOLU to GHG Emissions?
• Annual GHG emissions from agricultural production in 2000–2010 were estimated at 5.0–5.8 GtCO2eq/yr (10-12%)
• Annual GHG flux from land use and land-use change activities accounted for approximately 4.3–5.5 GtCO2eq/yr(9-11%)
2IPCC AR5 WG3 report, 2014
AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use
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Overall Objective
• Estimates of GHG emissions from Agricultural, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFLOU) Changes in South and South East Asia (SSEA)
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Carbon Footprint – Agriculture Sector (GHG Emissions from the Entire Cycle)
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Land Use Changes Due to Human ActivitiesUnit: % of grid cell
1900
1900
2010
2010
1900
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LCLUC – Changes for Cropland over the Past Century and Projection for the Future (SSP4-RCP6.0)
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Carbon Footprint – Agriculture Sector (GHG from the Entire Cycle)
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Question:What are the spatial patterns of the life cycle Carbon Footprints of major plant-based and animal-based foods?
Note: 1 Mega Joule = 239 kilocalorie(Xu et al. (2019)
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What are the spatial distributions of Major Crops in SSEA
8Leff et al, GBC, 2004
Five Major Crops:• Rice• Wheat• Maize
• Cotton• Oil palm
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We Studied All Crops Grown in SSEA (96 crops)
• Sugarcane
• Rice
• Oilpalm
• Wheat
• Cassava
• Maize
• Vegetablenes
• Potato
• Coconut
• Banana
• Cotton
• Mango
• Onion
• Fruitnes
• Soybean
• Tomato
• Millet
• Tropicalnes
• Groundnut
• Eggplant
• Orange
• Cabbage
• Bean
• Rubber
• Chickpea
• Pineapple
• Sorghum
• Cauliflower
• Rapeseed
• Pumpkinetc
• Sweetpotato
• Papaya
• Okra
• Pigeonpea
• Greenpea
• Lemonlime
• Jute
• Watermelon
• Apple
• Coffee
• Greenbean
• Tea
• Sesame
• Sunflower
• Plantain
• Barley
• Melonetc
• Carrot
• Garlic
• Castor
• Tobacco
• Rootnes
• Lentil
• Pulsenes
• Cucumberetc
• Lettuce
• Tangetc
• Grapefruitetc
• Grape
• Cocoa
• Citrusnes
• Pea
• Greencorn
• Date
• Pear
• Spinach
• Peachetc
• Pepper
• Oilseednes
• Plum
• Avocado
• Mustard
• Cowpea
• Cerealnes
• Apricot
• Taro
• Safflower
• Linseed
• Berrynes
• Jutelikefiber
• Nutnes
• Asparagus
• Walnut
• Sugarbeet
• Canaryseed
• Almond
• Yam
• Fig
• Stonefruitnes
• Buckwheat
• Cherry
• Broadbean
• Greenbroadbean
• Pistachio
• Hempseed
• Sisal
9Data source: FAOSTAT dataset
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Estimating GHG Emissions: Method
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• Life cycle assessment: GHG emission (CO2, CH4, N2O)
• Use Global Warming Potential to estimate GHG emissions in CO2
Farming (field emissions): change in SOC, CH4, N2O
Manufacturing (including mining and
transportation): fertilizers, pesticides,
energy, fuels, etc. Machinery
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Field and LULCC emissions for CO2 and N2O using ISAM
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Schematic Diagram of Biogeochemistry and Biogeophysical process to estimate CO2, and N2O from farm and LULCC in ISAM Module
(Barman et al. (2014)
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Field Emissions for CH4 using ISAM
Schematic Diagram of CH4 Emissions Module(Shu et al., 2019)
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GHG Emissions from Crop Production for SSEA (2000s)
0.76 Pg CO2-eq. (43.2% of global total: 1.76 Pg CO2-eq.)
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Major Crops
(Xu et al., 2019)
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Manufacturing, Field and Machinery Emissions for SSEA (Unit: Tg CO2 eq.)
14(Xu et al., 2019)
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GHG Emissions by Country (Unit: Tg CO2 Equivalent)
(Xu et al., 2019)
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Crop Specific Emissions: Rice
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GHG emissions of Rice (unit: Tg CO2 eq.)
GHG CO2
CH4 N2O
(Xu et al., 2019)
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Rice Emissions by Country (unit: Tg CO2 eq.)
18(Xu et al., 2019)
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Model Evaluation for Rice Production
ISAM Estimated Production (tons/0.1o gridcell)
with Monfreda et al. (2008) average for the period
1997-2003 ISAM M3
Other studies: Iizumi et al. (2014, 1997-2005), Monfreda et al. (2008, M3-2000), You et al. (2014, SPAM2005), FAO 1997-2005
ISAM Estimated Production (tons/yr) at country-level over
the period 1997-2005 with other studies
(Lin et al., 2018)
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Model Evaluation for CH4 Emissions
ISAM Estimated methane emissions (Gg CH4/0.1o gridcell) for 1995
compared with EDGAR
ISAM Estimated methane emissions (Gg CH4/yr) at country-level over the period 1995-2000 with other
studies
Other studies: Yan et al. (2003), Yan et al. (2009), Zhang et al. (2016), ALGAS (Asia Least Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy) report, UNFCCC national communication, FAO 1995-2000, EDGAR (Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research) 1995-2000
ISAM EDGAR
(Lin et al., 2018)
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Crop Specific Emissions: Wheat
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GHG emissions of Wheat (unit: Tg CO2 eq.)
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GHG
CO2 N2O
(Xu et al., 2019)
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Wheat Emissions by Country(unit: Tg CO2 eq.)
23(Xu et al., 2019)
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LCLUC by Country
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LCLUC GHG emissions by country (2000s) (unit: Tg CO2 eq.)
25Total emission due to LCLUC: 0.70 Pg CO2 eq. /yr
(Cerverich et al., 2016)
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SSEA Total Emissions by Various Categories
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GHG emissions of SSEA (unit: Tg CO2 eq.)
Total emission: 4.9 Pg CO2 eq. /yr
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LCLUC 0.7 PgCO2/yr(14%)
Fire 0.8 PgCO2/yr(16%)
Fossil 2.6 PgCO2/yr(51%)
LCA 0.8 PgCO2/yr(20%)
Total 4.9 PgCO2/yrEmissions
Net Sink -2 PgCO2/yr
Net Flux 2.9 Pg CO2
(Xu et al., 2019)
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Major Findings
• India and Indonesia are the two highest emitters of GHG emissions in SSEA
• CH4 is the most important GHG in crop production in SSEA– Due to rice cultivation, particularly during
plant growth (field emission)
• Wheat cultivation emits both CO2 and N2O – CO2 during fertilizer manufacturing and
– N2O due to N fertilizer application
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The End
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