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1

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

esa_6

Energy Systems Determinants 2: Supply


Readings

• H.-H. Rogner, 2000: Energy Resources, Chapter 5, World Energy Assessment, UNDP, New York, pp. 61-110.

2


World Energy Supply

0

100

200

300

400

500

1850 1900 1950 2000

Prim

ary

Ene

rgy

(EJ)

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Renewable

NuclearMicrochip

Steam motor

Gasolinetube

Commercial Nuclear

Television

aviation

engine

engineElectric

Vacuum

energy

s


Whale Catch and Whale Oil Prices

Wha

les

caug

ht p

er y

ear

Wha

le o

il pr

ice

US$2

003/

gal

Source: Sperm catch: P. Best, 2002, IWC SC/56/IA5; Prices: U. Bardi, 2004, based on Starbuck, 1878.

Introduction of kerosene refiningand kerosene lamps

3


Primary Energy Substitution100

60

40

20

0

1850 1900 1950 2000

Frac

tion

(%

)

Wood

Coal

Oil

GasNuclear

80


World - Carbon Intensity of Primary Energy

10

20

30

1850 1900 1950

gC/M

J

wood = 29.9

coal = 25.8

oil = 20.1

gas = 15.3

2000

15

25

35

Carbon intensity of:

4


H:C Ratios (Ruhrgas, 1996)

0.5-1.0: 10.5 – 1 : 1


Price of Oil and Coal 1870-1915Source: Group Planning SHELL, 1994.

5


Capacity Cost of Troll Field (North Sea)Source: Group Planning SHELL, 1994.

High prices beget high costs; low prices beget low costs (M. Adelmann)


Crude Oil Prices

0

25

50

75

100

125

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

$/bb

l (cu

rren

t and

con

stan

t US$

2007

)

1859-1864: 11-371 $2007/bbl

6


Oil Price Projections by DOE60

50

40

30

20

10

01975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

1985

1986

1987

1988

19901992

1994US(1

990)

$ / b

bl

BGR, 1988


Recurring Perception of Scarcity

“…the data at hand in regard to the gas still available underground … make it probable that the annual output will never be very much more than it was during the period 1916 - 1920.”

R.S. McBride and E.G. Sievers (USGS),

Mineral Resources of the United States, 1921, p.340.

US gas production: 22 Mtoe in 1920

100 Mtoe in 1995

7


0

50

100

150

200

250

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Gto

e

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Year

s

Total

Cumulativeconsumption

Remaining reserves/annual production

30080

2000

Remainingreserves

0

50

100

150

200

250

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Gto

e

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Year

s

Total



30080

2000

Remainingreserves

0

50

100

150

200

250

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Gto

e

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Year

s

Total



30080

2000

Remainingreserves

Remainingreserves

Recoverable Conventional Oil Reserves and Cumulative Production

Nakicenovic et al., 1998; BGR, 1998.


0

50

100

150

200

250

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Gto

e

0

10

20

40

50

60

80

Year

s

TotalRemaining reserves/annual production

300

2000

30


70

Remainingreserves

0

50

100

150

200

250

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Gto

e

0

10

20

40

50

60

80

Year

s

TotalRemaining reserves/annual production

300

2000

30


70

Remainingreserves

Remainingreserves

Remainingreserves

Recoverable Conventional Gas Reserves and Recoverable Conventional Gas Reserves and Cumulative ProductionCumulative Production

Nakicenovic et al., 1998; BGR, 1998.

8


Natural Gas Use in China


Thus spoke…

Zoroaster……

9


Increasing degree of geological assurance

Incr

easin

g de

gree

of

econ

omic

feas

ibili

ty

Subeconomic

Economic

Not economic

Reserves

Resources

Unconventional and low-gradeoccurrences

InferredMeasured Indicated

Demonstrated

Identified Reserves

Hypothetical Speculative

Probability range (or)

Undiscovered Resources

Resource Classification: The McKelvey Box (modified after Fettweis, 1978)


Density of Exploratory Drilling per (potentially petroleum bearing) Sedimentary Area

Source: Grossling, 1976.

10


Canada

USA

Western Europe

FSU

Australia

South America

Africa

Asia exc. China

China

Middle East

• • • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

• • • • • • • • • • • •

• • • • • • • • •

• •

• • • • • • • • • • • •• • • •

•

•• • • •• •

•

• •• •

Canada

USA

Western Europe

FSU

Australia

South America

Africa

Asia exc. China

China

Middle East

• • • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

• • • • • • • • • • • •

• • • • • • • • •

• •

• • • • • • • • • • • •• • • •

•

•• • • •• •

•

• •• •

Canada

USA

Western Europe

FSU

Australia

South America

Africa

Asia exc. China

China

Middle East

• • • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

• • • • • • • • • • • •

• • • • • • • • •

• •

• • • • • • • • • • • •• • • •

•

•• • • •• •

•

• •• •

Wells drilled through 1975 shown in black. Wells drilled 1976 through 2003 shown in red.Each circle represents 50,000 wells. Data through 1975 and relative petroleum prospective area from Grossling: “Window on Oil”

Wells drilled 1976 through 2003 per World Oil, August issue 1977 through 2003.From the 1.9 million wells drilled worldwide since 1975 three quarters were drilled in mature oil

provinces (esp. the USA), classified in 1975 as “close to drilling saturation”.

Prospective Sedimentary Areas and Oil Drilling Densities as per 1975 and per 2003

(B. Grossling’s “Window on Oil”)Update courtesy of Jeff Possick, Yale FES 802, 2004


600

500

400

300

200

100

01940 1960 1970 1980 19901950 2000

1840884

950

12

3

4

5

6

7

89

10

11

12

13

15

16

1814

17

19

20

21

22

2326

272829

3031

3233

34

35

36

37

38

39

4041

24

25

42

43

44

45

4647

48

49

50

5152

5354

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

6263

6465

66

67

6869

70

35aGto

e

Source: BGR, 1998.

Estimates of “ultimately recoverable” Conventional Oil(u.r. = past production + current reserves + future discoveries and field

growth)

11

Gtoe Gtoe1 1942 Pratt, Weeks, Stabinger 82 35a 1977 Hubert 2722 1946 Duce 55 36 1978 WEC 127-950(350)3 1946 Poqe 76 37 1978 Nehring 231-3134 1948 Weeks (Esso) 183 38 1979 Halbouty (Moody) - 10.WPC 3045 1949 Levorsen 205 39 1979 Meyerhoff 3006 1949 Weeks 138 40 1979 Roorda 3307 1953 Mac Naughton 136 41 1980 WEC 3548 1956 Hubbert (Shell/USA) 171 42 1985 Masters et al. - 11. WPC 213-369 (246)9 1958 Weeks (Esso) 205 43 1981 Colitti (Agip) 283

10 1959 Weeks (Esso) 273 44 1982 Exxon 245-40811 1965 Hendricks (USGS) 338 45 1983 Odell and Rosing 40812 1967 Ryman (Esso) 285 46 1984 Masters et al. 1987 - 12. WPC 217-308 (239)13 1968 Shell 246 47 1987 Keller (Chevron) 23614 1968 Weeks (Esso) 300 48 1988 Deutsche BP 40015 1969 Hubbert 184-268 (235) 49 1988 BGR 35016 1970 Moody (Mobil) 246 50 1989 Campbell 22417 1971 Warman (BP) 164-273 (218) 51 1989 Masters et al. 1991 - 13. WPC 270-371 (295)18 1971 Weeks (Esso) 312 52 1989 Bookout 27219 1971 US National Petroleum Council 364 53 1991 Montardet and Alazard 1992 31820 1972 Linden 402 54 1991 Tedeschi 34021 1972 Weeks (Esso) 498 55 1992 Masters et al. 1994 - 14. WPC 285-382 (309)22 1972 Moody, Emerick (Mobil 246-259 (253) 56 1993 Townes 40823 1972 Richard 266 57 1993 BGR 1995 31324 1972 Warman (BP) 245 58 1994 Laherrere 24525 1973 WEC (USGS) 184-1840 59 1994 Petroconsultants 29126 1973 Wim Vermeer (Shell) 263 60 1994 Guttiereres 374

26a 1973 Warman (BP) 261 61 1994 Campbell 1995 22427 1973 Moody & Esser (Mobil) - 9. WPC 277 62 1994 Edwards 1997 38628 1974 Hubbert (USGS) 272 63 1995 Mackenzie 1996 35429 1975 Halbouty 1979 - 10. WPC 304 64 1995 Mabro 1996 24530 1975 Adams and Kirby (BP) 273 65 1996 Campbell 1997 24531 1975 Exxon 265 66 1996 Odell 1998 (Bezug auf Shell) 40032 1975 Grossling (USGS) 354-884 67 1996 Shell 32533 1975 BGR 336 68 1996 Schollnberger 1998 370*34 1975 Odell 486-576 69 1997 Hiller 1997 35035 1976 Klemme (Weeks) 259 70 1997 BGR 1998 341

* including heavy oil (78 Gtoe)

Conventional Oil: Estimates of “ultimately recoverable”Resources

Source: BGR, 1998.


USGS Estimates of “ultimately recoverable Reserves” in 1987 and 2002 Data (Source: Masters, 1987; BP, 2002)

68619962421Middle East

54<15Oman

967173Kuwait

2626520166Saudi Arabia

ReservesBP 2002

Resources5%probability

Undiscovered95% probability

Reserves

1987 USGS estimates

12


600

500

400

300

200

100

01955 1965 1975 1985 1995

1

23

4

5

6

7

89

10

11

12

13

15

16

18

14 17

19

20

21

22

2324

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37 38

39

40

41

42Tm

3

Source: BGR, 1998.

Conventional Gas: Estimates of “ultimately recoverable” Resources


10 12m3 10 12m3

1 1958 Weeks 120-150 21 1985 IGU (16. WGC) 3302 1959 Weeks 150 22 1986 Ruhrgas 2593 1965 Weeks 180 23 1988 Ruhrgas 3294 1965 Hendriks/USGS 410 24 1988 IGU (17. WGC) 3515 1967 Ryman/Esso 320 25 1989 BGR 3856 1967 Shell 270 26 1991 Masters (13. WPC) 251-430 (297)7 1968 Weeks 175 27 1991 IGU (18. WGC) 3708 1969 Hubbert 205-320 28 1991 Krylov (13. WPC) 413-4239 1971 Weeks 200 29 1991 World Energy Council 292

10 1973 Koppack/Shell 190 30 1992 Ruhrgas 38611 1973 Hubbert 320 31 1994 Masters (14. WPC) 277-479 (327)12 1973 Linden 275 32 1994 Ruhrgas 38713 1975 Adams & Kirkby 150 33 1994 IGU (19. WPC) 44914 1975 BGR 235 34 1995 BGR 42015 1975 Nat. Ac. Science 200 35 1995 Ruhrgas 427

Washington 36 1995 Cornot-G./Cedigaz 443-53916 1977 IGU #) 165 37 1996 Colitti & Simeoni 35117 1977 LNG 5., Düsseldorf 230 38 1997 Mobil 36018 1978 Meyerhoff 220 39 1997 IGU (20. WGC) 460

(10. WPC) 40 1997 Enron Corp. 49219 1980 11. WEK 293 41 1998 Schollnberger/AMOCO 39020 1985 Masters (12. WPC) 208-369 (250) 42 1998 BGR (this study) 439

Conventional Gas: Estimates of “ultimately recoverable” Resources

Source: BGR, 1998.

13


UNCONVENTIONAL GAS RESOURCES OF UNITED STATES


Methane Hydrates (Clathrates)

14

Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler 14

SoilsSoils~1,500 ~1,500 GtCGtC

Unconventional Fossil Fuels15,000 to 40,000 GtC

IIASA-GCP HYDRATES Workshop

(2008)

“the question now is not whether industry will exploit

hydrates but how soon.”

“200 billion industry in two decades (?)”

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TNT/WEB/Workshops/hydrates/Methahttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TNT/WEB/Workshops/hydrates/Methane_Hydrates_Agenda.htmlne_Hydrates_Agenda.html


Global Hydrocarbon Reserves and Resources

in ZJ (1021J)

Consumption Reserves Resources Resource Additional 1860-2000 2000 base Occurrences

Oil Conventional 5.15 0.15 6 6 12 Unconventional 0.30 0.01 6 16 22 60

Gas Conventional 2.54 0.09 6 11 17 Unconventional 0.03 0.01 9 26 35 800

Coal 6.18 0.09 21 179 200 140

Total 14.20 0.35 48 238 286 1000

Source: Nakicenovic et al., 1996; Nakicenovic, Grübler and McDonald, 1998; WEC, 1998; Masters et al., 1994; Rogner et al., 2000

15


Global Hydrocarbon Reserves and Resources in ZJ (1021J)

Consumption Reserves Resources Resource Additional 1860-2000 2000 base Occurrences

Oil Conventional 5.15 0.15 6 6 12 Unconventional 0.30 0.01 6 16 22 60

Gas Conventional 2.54 0.09 6 11 17 Unconventional 0.03 0.01 9 26 35 800

Coal 6.18 0.09 21 179 200 140

Total 14.20 0.35 48 238 286 1000

reserves/resources dominated by coal largest occurrence:gas hydrates


Global Hydrocarbon Reserves and Resourcesin GtC (109 tC)

Use Reserves Resources Additional 1800-2000 2000 Occurrences

Oil Conventional 102 2.5 120 120 Unconventional 7 0.2 120 300 1200

Gas Conventional 38 1.2 80 170 Unconventional 1 0.1 140 360 12200

Coal 160 2.5 530 4620 3600

Total 308 6.5 970 5570 17000

Source: Calculated after Nakicenovic et al., 1996; Nakicenovic, Grübler and McDonald, 1998;WEC, 1998; Masters et al., 1994; Rogner et al., 2000

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Global Hydrocarbon Reserves and Resourcesin GtC (109 tC)

GtC

Use Reserves Resources Additional 1800-2000 2000 Occurrences

Oil Conventional 102 2.5 120 120 Unconventional 7 0.2 120 300 1200

Gas Conventional 38 1.2 80 170 Unconventional 1 0.1 140 360 12200

Coal 160 2.5 530 4620 3600

Total 308 6.5 970 5570 17000

IPCC: discernible influence on climate systemcurrent atmosphere: 760 GtC (+150 since 1800)

Largest occurrence of hydrocarbons: methane hydrates


Something Wrong with Theory?

• Historical success rate in US oil/gas drilling: No better than with random drilling

• Depletion of fields postponed: Refill from below: Jean Whelan=“state of art”

• Deep gas hypothesis: Tommy Gold=highly controversial

• Gas tracers (C-14): Abiogenic gas=Yes, but minor curiosity?

• Gas hydrates: How to explain quantities and occurrence (e.g. in deep sea bottom)?

• Methane abundance in extraterrestrial environments: Relevance for planet Earth?

17


Why is Uranus’ (or Neptune’s) Atmosphere Blue?(Methane=Natural Gas)


Neptune

18


A Useful Reminder

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