Ernestina Birova - Condos - Re/max Ultimate - January 2016
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Transcript of Ernestina Birova - Condos - Re/max Ultimate - January 2016
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GTA Condo Market Outlook
RECORD YEAR FOR GTA HOUSING SALES
101,299
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Resale TransactionsGTA: 2005 to 2015
Source: TREB
CONDOS LEAD CITY OF TORONTO SALES
17,467
12,065
4,894
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Resale Transactions by TypeCity of Toronto: 2005 to 2015
Condo Apt
Detached
Semi/Row
Source: TREB
12% y/y
2% y/y
2% y/y
CONDOS BECOME EVEN MORE AFFORDABLE
$1,046,540
$731,097
$405,486
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Resale Transactions by TypeCity of Toronto: 2005 to 2015
Detached
Semi/Row
Condo Apt
Source: TREB
CONDO PRICES GROWING BY < HALF MARKET RATE
12.5%
10.4%
5.1%
7.6% 7.4%
5.4%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Detached Semi/Row Condo Apt
Annual Price Growth by TypeCity of Toronto: 2015 and 10-Year Avg.
2015 10-yr. avg.
Source: TREB
QUICKLY GROWING HIGH END MARKET
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Annual Sales Growth by Price RangeGreater Toronto Area: 2015
All Homes
Condo Apts
Source: TREB
CONDOS ARE 45% OF < $500K MARKET
71%
47%
22%
12%7% 5% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Condo Apartment Share of Sales by TypeGreater Toronto Area: 2015
Source: TREB
FIRST-TIMERS & DOWNSIZERS GROWING FASTEST- MOVE-UP BUYING TO ACCELERATE
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Under 15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Average Annual Growth in Population by Age BandCity of Toronto
2014
2015-2019
Source: Statistics Canada compiled by Urbanation Inc., Ontario Ministry of Finance f orecasts
3%
30%
24%
18%
12%
12%
Distribution of Condo Apartment Households by AgeMovers in Past 5 Years, Toronto CMA: 2011
Under 25
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 and over
Source: Statistics Canada compiled by Urnaation Inc.
CONDO DEMAND IS DIVERSE
33% Under 35
42% 35-54
24% 55+
IMMIGRATION TO TORONTO SLOWING
40,363
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Annual Immigration LevelsCity of Toronto: 2004 to 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
IMMIGRANT HOUSEHOLDS ARE YOUNG- STRONG SOURCE OF RENTAL DEMAND
19%
15%
31%
19%17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Under 15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45+
Immigration by Age GroupCity of Toronto: 2010 to 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
MIGRATION TO ONTARIO IS RISING
95,479
73,030
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Provincial Annual Migration LevelsOntario: 2005 to 2015
Immigration
Interprovincial In-Migration
Source: Statistics Canada
ROBUST TORONTO ECONOMY
89,300
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Change in EmploymentToronto CMA: 2005 to 2015
10-year average
Source: Statistics Canada
JOB GROWTH ACROSS VARIOUS INDUSTRIES
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Education
Construction
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
Trade
Professional Services
Top 5 Industries for Employment GrowthToronto CMA: 2015
Source: Statistics Canada
CONDO SUPPLY PIPELINE LEVELING OUT AT 20K / YR
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Apartment Sales, Starts & CompletionsGreater Toronto Area: 2009 to 2015, 12-mths ending in Q3 periods
Source: Urbanation Inc., CMHC
New Condo Sales Condo Starts
Condo Completions
Rental StartsRental Completions
CURRENT CONSTRUCTION CYCLE UNWINDING
59,094
49,997
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
New Condo Apartment Units Under ConstructionGTA: 2005-2015
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Q3-13:
FEWER LAUNCHES TO LIMIT NEW CONSTRUCTION
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Condo Apartment LaunchesGTA: 2005 to 2015
10-year avg.
Source: Urbanation Inc.
…BUT LAND ACQUISITIONS TRENDING UP
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
$700,000,000
$800,000,000
Apartment Site Sales by QuarterGreater Toronto Area
Source: Teranet, Marsh Report
Trendline
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Historical Annual Condo Completions and Scheduled OccupanciesGTA: 2005 to 2018
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Scheduled Occupancies
SUPPLY GROWTH SET TO PEAK IN 2017
2005-2013 average = 13K
2014-2018 average = 23K
STATS ABOUT THE 25K UNITS COMPLETING IN 2016
Represents 8% growth in the condo stock
Avg. Pre-sale Price = $495 psf
Avg. Resale Price for units completed past 2 years = $575 psf
Avg. Holding Cost with 25% down = $2.60 psf*
Avg. Rent for units completed past 2 years = $2.60 psf
87% Pre-sold = 3,141 Unsold Units = 13.7 months of supply
*based on a 725 sf unit, 3% interest rate, 25-year amortization, and includes property taxes and maintenance fees
NEW SUPPLY FOCUSED ON CITY OF TORONTO
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
Toronto Peel & Halton York Region
Condo Apartment Completions by Year and RegionGTA: 2015 to 2017
2015 2016 2017
Source: Urbanation Inc.
BIG JUMP IN COMPLETIONS EXPECTED IN THE CORE
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
Former Toronto Etobicoke North York Scarborough
Condo Apartment Completions by Year and Former MunicipalityCity Of Toronto: 2015 to 2017
2015 2016 2017
Source: Urbanation Inc.
DOWNTOWN EAST LEADS DEVELOPMENT
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
New Condos in Pre-Construction and Under ConstructionFormer City of Toronto Submarkets: Q3-2015
Source: Urbanation Inc.
NEW CONDOS % SOLD AT RECORD HIGH
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Condo Apartments in DevelopmentGTA: 2005 to 2015
Units in Development
% Sold
Source: Urbanation Inc.
INVESTORS HOLDING AT COMPLETION
34%
2%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Condo Project MLS Annual Turnover: Resale vs. RentalGTA: 2011 to Sep-2015
New Project Rental Turnover
New Project Resale Turnover
Source: Urbanation, TREB
CONDO LEASES EXCEEDING RESALES- END-USER ACTIVITY AT RECORD HIGH
27,000
21,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Volume of Condo Apartment LeasesGreater Toronto Area: 2011 to 2015
Units Leased
Units Resold
Source: TREB, Urbanation Inc.
CONDO RENTAL SUPPLY GROWTH MODERATING
1.8%
12,686
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Growth in Condo Rental Supply and Average Vacancy RatesGreater Toronto Area: 2010 to 2015
Net Change in Condo Rental Stock
Vacancy Rate (%)
Source: CMHC
CONDO RENTS FLAT IN THE CORE
$2.80
$2.40
$2.03
$1.60
$1.80
$2.00
$2.20
$2.40
$2.60
$2.80
$3.00
2011 - Q4 2012 - Q4 2013 - Q4 2014 - Q4 2015 - Q4
Average Condo Apartment Rents PSF by RegionGreater Toronto Area: Q4 Periods from 2011 to 2015
Former City of Toronto
Outer 416
905
Source: TREB, Urbanation Inc.
1% y/y
6% y/y
5% y/y
Newer Projects in Downtown Core
$3.05 PSF
MOVING INTO A SELLERS MARKET FOR RESALE
7.3%
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Sales-to-Listings Ratio (SLR) and Annual Growth in Resale Prices (psf)GTA: Q4-2011 to Q3-2015
Annual Price Growth
Sales/Listings (right)
Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
Balanced
Sellers Market
NEW CONDO PRICE GROWTH STABLE
3%
$576
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Condo Apartment Average Sold Price PSFGreater Toronto Area: 2005 to 2015
Annual Growth
Avg. Sold Price PSF
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Downtown Core$715 PSF
VARYING RESULTS FOR NEW LAUNCHES
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Under 30% 30-49% 50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90%+
New Condo Launches by Absorption RateGTA: 12 months to Q3-2015
Source: Urbanation Inc.
MINIMAL STANDING INVENTORY
8,634
6,309
689
65%
87%
94%
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Pre-con Under-con Occupying
Unsold Inventory and Total Aborption by Project StatusGTA: Q3-2013
Unsold Units
% Total Units Pre-Sold
Source: Urbanation
CONDO DEVELOPMENT DIVERSIFYING
11%
19%
35% 35%
24%22%
27% 27%
Under 15 storeys 15-24 storeys 25-39 storeys 40+ storeys
Total Units in Active Development by Building SizeGreater Toronto Area
2005 2015
Source: Urbanation Inc.
MORE BALANCE BY TYPE BUT UNITS STILL SHRINKING
28% 30% 28% 34%26% 28%
35% 35% 37%32%
31% 33%
23% 21% 21% 21%27%
27%
14% 13% 14% 12% 15% 11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 2015
New Condo Launch Suite Mix
2B+Den & 3B 2B 1B+Den Studio & 1B
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Avg. Size = 669 sf
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Ernestina Birova BrokerRe/max Ult imate Real Estate Brokerage T. 416-454-1342
