Ericsson Energy and Carbon Report

Ericsson Energy and Carbon Report

June 2013

On the impact Of the netwOrked sOciety

Life-cycLe assessments and carbon footprint 2

introduction 3

ict carbon footprint 4

networked society 5

connected devices scenario 6

deveLopment of networks, data centers and equipment over time 7

energy consumption for operation 8

smart network pLanning 9

ict addressing the cLimate chaLLenge 10

reference information 11

methodoLogy 11

references 11

Contents

› ericsson has a long history of research and has extensive experience in energy consumption and life-cycle assessments (Lca), having conducted the first Lca on a switch in 1992, and the next two on a mobile base station in 1995 and on a mobile phone that same year. such assessments have proven to give valid results, even when reexamined in hindsight.

› carbon footprint is used to explain one aspect of the environmental impact of a product or service over its entire lifetime based on a standardized Lca method. to assess the full impact, the measure cO

2e (carbon

dioxide equivalent) is used. about 30 percent of all cO

2e can be accounted for by other gases – such

as methane – and the effect of land use and so on. when calculating cO

2e, other emissions and effects

are normalized to the global warming potential of cO

2 over 100 years.

› it is always difficult to make accurate energy and cO2

projections as they are sensitive to selected system boundaries, and there will always be differences of opinion when it comes to future developments.

› while carbon footprint or cO2e is used to estimate

the impact of a product or service over its lifetime, this should not be confused with direct energy consumption: the measurement of energy needed to operate the same product or service.

› the energy consumption for operation of a product may in economic terms be compared to (and have a direct impact on operational costs) OpeX, while a similar economic comparison for an Lca would look at the life-cycle costs, including all investment, running, service, maintenance and disposal costs.

Life-cycLe assessments and carbon footprint

Introductionall ict equipment and services are depend-ent on electricity to function. the use of ict and related services is expanding rapidly; in the ericsson mobility report [1] it is predicted that mobile data will grow 12-fold between 2012 and 2018. this ict expansion helps economic growth and development, and makes the world a more accessible, open and democratic place. does it, however, also mean an equally dramatic increase in energy use and carbon emissions?

research presented in this report shows that even with the dramatic growth predicted for ict, the sector as a whole is unlikely to surpass 2 percent (figure 1) of total global carbon footprint. this is largely due to advances in technology, and industry efforts to reduce energy consumption. the report also looks at absolute growth in terms of energy use, and outlines how the networked society with all its connected devices will affect energy use and carbon footprint. it also describes how ict can provide transformative solutions to offset total global cO

2 emissions from other sectors.

continued improvements in energy efficiency are essential in order to balance the growth in user numbers and data volumes. the trends examined in this report are based on data collected following improvements that have already been implemented in system and user equipment by ericsson.

the ipcc (intergovernmental panel on climate change) and other organizations talk about the general need to reduce carbon emissions and limit climate change. many governments have set cO

2 reduction targets, but few

have linked these targets to the broader use of technology. there is a need for transformative solutions, as described in the Broadband Bridge, a report by the Broadband commission [2]. this report includes case studies of opportunities to maintain economic development and to use ict as a way of reducing the 98 percent of energy use and climate impact stemming from non-ict sectors.

enabling a low-carbon economythe ict sector contributes about 2% of global co2e emissions, but can help eliminate a significant portion of the remaining 98% from other industries.

ict solutions will enable the

low-carbon economy

of the future…

…and will transformindustries and

cities.

by 2050, 70% of the global population will reside in an urban

area or city.

stockholm royal seaport is an ict-enabled city district that will be climate-positive by 2030

ICT2%

Waste 3%

Forestry 17%

Agriculture 14%

Energy supply 26%

Buildings 8%

Industry 19%

Transport & travel 13%

the cO2e from an annual mobile subscription is equal to driving a car for about 1.5 hours

source: ericsson and teliasonera, 2012

the smarter 2020 study estimates that ict-enabled solutions could reduce global cO2e emissions by 16.5% in 2020source: Gesi

source: Un haBitat

smart grids can help address 67% of the energy lost due to inefficiencies before reaching the consumer

ict2%

a 2012 study of eight ict-related services in six countries showed they could produce energy savings of 373 million barrels of oil equivalents per year

source: yankee Group and Gesi

373million

source: ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley national Laboratory and Gesi

source: stockholm royal seaport innovation center

source: ericsson

[1] ericsson mobility report, June 2013.

[2] the Broadband Bridge – Linking ict with climate change, report by the Broadband commission, march 2012.

figure 1:

ERICSSON ENERGY AND CARBON REPORT 3

ICT carbon footprint

forecasts in the ericsson mobility report indicate that in 2018, 90 percent of the world’s population will have mobile coverage, and 60 percent will have the ability to accesshigh-speed Lte data networks.

the global carbon footprint of the ict sector in 2007 [3] was estimated at 620 million tonnes cO

2e, about 1.3

percent of the total global carbon footprint. since 2007, the ict industry has grown and is forecast to continue to grow. Our future prognoses for ict [4] indicate the portion of this sector increases slightly to 1.9 percent of global cO

2e emissions in 2020 despite the dramatic

growth of ict. this corresponds to a slight increase in carbon footprint (cO

2e) of about 4 percent per year, or

a total of around 70 percent between 2007 and 2020. the estimated total carbon footprint for the ict sector will be about 1,100 million tonnes (figure 2) in 2020.

the ict footprint defined here includes the impact created by mobile and fixed telecommunication networks, enterprise data networks, data transport networks, data centers and all user equipment connected to networks, such as phones, tablets, pcs and modems. the most significant portion of the footprint may be accounted for by the running of pcs and data centers.

the ict sector in this definition does not include tVs, tV peripherals and other electronics that originally were not connected. these are included with paper media in an industry sector called entertainment and media. an estimate of the impact of entertainment and media is presented in the “connected devices scenario” described below.

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mobile networks and mobile devices (including tablets)

PCs (all types, excluding tablets)

Data centers, data transmission & enterprise networks

Home devices (fixed phones, Customer Premises Equipment (CPE))

Fixed networks

ICT carbon footprint outlook Mtonnes CO2e

Source: Ericsson

source: ericsson

figure 2: ict carbon footprint outlook (mtonnes cO2e)

[1] ericsson mobility report, June 2013.

[3] malmodin, J., moberg, Å., Lundén, d., finnveden, G., and Lövehagen, n. 2010. Greenhouse gas emissions and operational electricity use in the ict and entertainment & media sectors. Journal of industrial ecology. 14, 5, (October 2010), 770-790. dOi=http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2010.00278.x.

[4] malmodin, J., Bergmark, p., Lundén, d. 2013, the future carbon footprint of the ict and e&m sectors, conference paper and presentation at ict for sustainability, (eth Zurich, switzerland, february 14-16, 2013).

4 ERICSSON ENERGY AND CARBON REPORT

Networked society

Broadband, mobility and the cloud are driving the evolution of services and experiences. these are increasingly being realized electronically and consumed over the network. this development is the starting point for large-scale innovation from groups ranging from tech-savvy youngsters, to small-scale entrepreneurs, to established businesses and leading industry players from all sec-tors of society. eventually, this will drive significant change across all parts of society, affecting all different kinds of activities, and marking the development of a new era. we call this envisioned new era the networked society.

as a part of this development, con-nections and digital experiences are expected to be shared not only by today’s devices but by most things around us. anything that can benefit from having a connection will have one: machines, engines, valves, appliances, sensors, vehicles, bikes and meters are just a few examples.

the increased use of ict devices, in our study [4] is estimated to increase from 6 billion to 12.5 billion by 2020, and this is the main reason for ict’s increased carbon footprint. at the same time, energy-efficiency improvements have been taken into

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Mobile data

Fixed data

CO2e per data outlook(kg CO2e/GB)

20201990 2000 2010

Source: Ericsson

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Fixed data

Average ICT user

Mobile data

CO2e per subscriber outlook(kg CO2e/user)

20201990 2000 2010

Source: Ericsson

carbon footprint per average ict user and per amount of data continues to decrease over time.

source: ericsson source: ericsson

account when modeling the footprint ofusers and network equipment, and are expected to limit the increase in the ict sector’s impact beyond the predicted levels.

Based on an analysis of historical and forecasted data on devices (for example, international telecom-munication Union or itU statistics on pcs in use and telephone lines [5], and earlier Lca studies), we found that the ict sector’s total carbon footprint per average user – including the impact of shared resources such as data centers and network equip-ment – has decreased from about 300kg cO

2e in 1995 to about 100kg

in 2007, and is expected to decrease further to about 80kg in 2020 (see figure 3).

the main reason for the decreased footprint per average ict user is that the number of people using mobile devices and mobile access technolo-gies is increasing. these devices are becoming more effective and have lower per-user footprints than fixed pcs and always-on devices such as modems and routers. dematerialization effects, described on page 10, also play a role, thanks to the greater energy efficiency of battery-operated mobile devices. fixed networks, on the other hand, have a lower impact per gigabyte (GB), as shown in figure 4.

figure 3: cO2e per subscriber outlook

(kg cO2e/user)

figure 4: cO2e per data outlook

(kg cO2e/GB)


[5] itU, key telecom99 document from world telecom development conference 2002, istanbul, turkey, march 18-27, 2002.


Connected devices scenario

when predicting the future impact of the ict industry, it is important to consider that in the years to come, not only everyone but also everything is expected to be connected and to communicate. for the first time, based on ericsson research, a connected devices scenario is presented here, looking at the carbon footprint of the industry.

the connected devices scenario illustrates that more equipment than ever will be connected in a variety of industry sectors. in the scenario, 1 billion new connection points such as mobile-broadband gateways and site controllers have been added to the ict sector. in the entertainment and media sector, the scenario includes an additional 16 billion connections to existing tVs and peripherals such as game consoles, audio devices, cameras and car infotainment systems.

to fully capture the networked society, this study also looked into the anticipated 2020 impact caused by the connectivity of a further 12 billion electronic devices in other sectors. these connected electronic devices are expected in areas including: vehicles, home appliances, hVac (heating, ventilation and air conditioning), meters, production machinery, payment, medical and security products and more. Besides looking at ict, entertainment and media, and other equipment, we have also studied the impact of 500 billion sensors and tags, which are expected to be used by all industry sectors (figure 5).

in sum, even with a high uptake of connected devices scenario, the additional cO

2e from manufacture and

operations of these new communication modules will not be significant compared to growth projections. rather this highlights the enabling benefits of the networked society in terms of cO

2 reduction potential, efficiency

gains and overall benefits to society.

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Otherequipment

Sensorsand tags

Connected devices scenarioBase line

Figure 5: Connected devices scenarioMtonnes CO2e

Source: Ericsson

figure 5: connected devices scenario (mtonnes cO2e)

source: ericsson


Development of net-works, data centers and equipment over timethis analysis has been prepared to give a view of the developments and impacts of networks, data centers and user equipment. no absolute comparisons should be made because there is less data available for 1990 and 2000 compared with 2010 and 2020, and different parameters were used.

in 1990 there were very few mobile subscribers and relatively few pcs. at that time, pcs were typically office-based, either stand-alone or connected to local networks. fixed networks were mainly old national telecom networks with inefficient operations and maintenance. fixed phones were analog and consumed no energy on their own. data centers or data halls already existed, but the information available today on their energy consumption is limited.figure 6: 1990 (mtonnes cO

2e)

the term ict was used in the academic world from 1986, but did not become widespread until 2000. telecom and it became more integrated in 2000, and the introduction of fixed broadband began. most pcs were still used in offices. the old national telecom operators faced new competition and were therefore forced to become more efficient. the mobile networks were a small part of the ecosystem, as were customer premises equipment (cpe) and mobile phones.

figure 7: 2000 (mtonnes cO2e)

By 2010 the ict sector had grown dramatically, and mobile networks and mobile phones were present everywhere. the majority of data traffic, both from companies and households, was connected through fixed networks. about half of all pcs were now used in households. ip telephony had started to take over from traditional fixed phones.

figure 8: 2010 (mtonnes cO2e)

for 2020, the connected devices scenario has been included in the calculations. One of the remaining uncertainties is the number of pcs due to be in existence; it is possible that handheld tablets and phones will be so user-friendly that the pc no longer plays the same role in the home. if this trend develops more quickly than pro-jected today, the ict impact will be lower than estimated. figure 9: 2020 (mtonnes cO

2e)

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Figure 6: 1990 (Mtonne CO2e)

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all graphs: source ericsson

Phone tablets

CPE

PCs

Data centers

Mobile network

Transport network

LAN

Fixed network

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the explanations to the graphs:


Energy consumption for operation

the total electricity1 consumption of the ict sector is forecasted to increase by almost 60 percent from 2007 to 2020 owing to the increasing number of devices and network expansion.

research outlined on the previous pages relates to the carbon footprint – in other words, the whole life-cycle impact of the equipment. research on electricity consumption of the ict sector described here represents the electricity used in operating equipment. this is impor-tant because carbon emissions in the use phase of the equipment, but it also has a direct impact on the OpeX for the operators.

the electricity consumption of fixed networks – including local area networks (Lans) and data transport networks – is not expected to increase. One important reason for this is the modernization of old traditional telecom networks, which outweighs the increased use of data communication.

the electricity consumption of mobile networks, including future wireless access points, is expected to not more than triple by 2020, but still represents a limited percentage of the impact of the whole sector thanks to smarter network planning and improvements in the energy efficiency of hardware. new generations of rBss have shown to be up to 85 percent more energy-efficient in some cases.

the electricity consumption of data centers grew by 100 percent between 2000 and 2005, and by a further 50 percent between 2005 and 2010. an increased focus on energy efficiency, cloud services, virtualization and other advances will slow down future growth. Larger data centers and cloud computing have the potential to reduce companies’ electricity needs, but only if they close down their own data centers and use outsourced solutions instead.

the electricity consumption of cpe and fixed phones is expected to increase as the number of connection points

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020

Connected devices scenario

Mobile devices

PCs (including laptops)

CPE (including cordless phones)

Data centers

Mobile networks

Fixed networks

Figure 10: Electricity consumption (TWh)

rises. it is hard to implement efficient “sleep” modes for such equipment. electricity-consumption patterns for pcs have changed as desktops, crts and poor power management systems are increasingly replaced by laptops, Lcds and better power management. despite growth in the numbers of pcs, electricity consumption is not expected to increase significantly.

mobile devices are the most numerous (there are more than 8 billion of them in this scenario), but thanks to low power and improved battery technology, electricity consumption is still expected to be low, even if the number of devices almost triples.

figure 10: electricity consumption (twh)

source: ericsson

1 for most normal operation of ict, the energy used is electricity from a grid. this study focuses on the electricity used for operation.


Smart network planning

energy costs are among the most significant that network operators have to absorb. the smart energy features in heterogeneous networks illustrate the way ericsson develops solutions to accommodate dramatic user and data growth without any proportional growth in energy demand.

to meet the traffic demands, mobile-broadband operators need to densify base-station deployments – especially in urban environments. in these areas, the wireless networks consist of a mixture of traditional large macro cells and small micro or pico cells, a mixture referred to as hetero-geneous networks.

adding base stations traditionally brings an increase in power consumption. But with additional functionality in the network – specifically addressing energy efficiency – it is possible to reduce the required power consumption dramatically.

ericsson research has created simulations showing the impact of two energy-efficiency features: an improved power amplifier (using micro dtX, discontinuous trans-mission) for Lte systems and a fast-sleep mode for small cells. Both features save power while maintaining the capacity gains afforded by heterogeneous networks, with an almost negligible impact on performance.

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HetNet HetNet +µDTX HetNet

+µDTX

-27% 6.3

+ sleep mode

-52% 4.1

Figure X: Power consumption per area (kW/km2)

Source: Ericsson

figure 11: power consumption per area (kw/km2)

source: ericsson

source: ericsson

figure 12: the heterogeneous network in this research is assumed to consist of three small cells, for capacity boost, in each macro cell.


ICT addressing the climate challenge

dematerialization and increased efficiency are the two main opportunities for ict to help society develop.

there are several examples of how ict has changed consumption habits and reduced the flow of products and materials in society. (Just think how many one-time cameras have been replaced with mobile cameras and photo sharing services.) ericsson has studied several services, presented in figure 13, calculating the potential of ict solutions to reduce cO

2e emissions compared

with traditional solutions [6]. the reduction ratio repre-sents the direct and embodied cO

2e emissions from

the ict solution, set in relation to the potential savings in direct and embodied emissions that the ict solution enables [7].

By replacing physical products with services, and by helping people to use resources more efficiently, ict-based solutions can improve basic services while reducing cO

2e emissions. another study [8] on efficiency

gains in transport systems is described below.

By 2050, an estimated 70 percent of the world’s population will reside in urban areas. Our planet’s cities are faced with the challenge of becoming more sustainable while also continuing to drive prosperity. here, connectivity can play a major role.

the city of curitiba in Brazil was the first in the world to connect public buses to a mobile-broadband network. a connected public-transport system makes for more efficient fuel usage and a corresponding reduction in cO

2e emissions. earlier studies on the bus system have

shown that people will be attracted to public as opposed to private travel when provided with a more reliable bus service.

the Bus rapid transit (Brt) system adopted in curitiba, which is used for 70 percent of all types of public and private commuting, produces approximately 200,000 tonnes of direct cO

2e emissions per year compared

with 1,500,000 tonnes related to annual car travel in

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Figure 14: Potential savings from ICT, CuritibaTonne CO2e

“What if buses can operate 1% more efficient?”

“What if car travel can be reduced

by 0.1%?”

figure 14: potential savings from ict, curitiba (tonnes cO2e)

figure 13: ict enabling a low carbon economy, ericsson case studies

[6] research case studies, http://www.ericsson.com/thecompany/sustainability_ corporateresponsibility/enabling_a_low_carbon_economy/research_and_standardization.

[7] Quantifying emissions right, http://www.ericsson.com/res/docs/whitepapers/ wp-quantifying-emissions.pdf

[8] connected buses in curitiba, ericsson 2012, http://www.ericsson.com/res/ thecompany/docs/corporate-responsibility/2011/curibita_final.pdf

ict service co2 reduction ratio country

m-health > 20 sweden

e-health > 45 croatia

digital delivery < 200 spain

Virtual presence < 200 sweden, Global

m-money > 65 kenya

field force management

< 100 turkey

all graphs: source ericsson

the city. the ict portion of the Brt system adds about 500 tonnes of cO

2e per year. the potential savings can be

seen on figure 14.


Reference information

Methodology

references

the research presented was conducted at ericsson research, in collaboration with internal company experts, customers and partners. Latest estimates on market de-velopments will always be found in the ericsson mobility report [1]. some numbers presented in this report do not match this latest report but was used in scenarios for calculations of environmental impact at the time when the research was conducted. this shall not be seen as change of position of ericsson. some of the results presented on devices and equipment come from research that has been published and reviewed outside the company, but that has also been reviewed by ericsson experts for relevance and comparability. system boundaries, projections and results are presented in peer-reviewed research papers and scientific conferences. as an industry leader in technology and research, ericsson has shared results and provided input over the years to smart 2020 [9], smarter 2020 [10], the Broadband commission [2], and the european Union (eU) earth (energy aware radio and network technologies) project [11] to name a few. a detailed discussion of the boundaries of the assessed ict sector is given in the study [3][4], including further details of the ict network and related services. these studies also include a definition of the assessment boundaries of the entertainment and media sector. the boundary between the two sectors is not unambiguous, and it is also changing over time. further discussion on

the selected boundaries is therefore included [4]. for the use stage of user equipment, measurements have been prioritized over estimates. for example, the unique measurements relating to electronic devices used in 400 swedish households over a whole year [12] were used as principal data. for the use stage of networks, measurements taken by operators and service providers have been used as reported to the carbon disclosure project (cdp) and in corporate reporting as well as other publically available technical data (for example, the number of lines and subscriptions). the global average electricity model described in [4] has been used. an important part of the methodology was to forecast the type and number of all devices related to the ict sector that are expected to be in use between now and 2020. Large industry analyst firms’ market research and future market projections have been used as data sources. these firms include international data corporation (idc) (for its work on pcs and servers) [13] and display search (for work on tVs and monitors) [14]. subscription informa-tion was based on prognoses made by itU [15]. for the mobile subsector’s carbon footprint 2007-2020, a detailed previous study by the eU’s earth research project [11] was used as a data source. Other more specific studies such as koomey’s study of servers and data centers’ energy consumption globally [16] were also used as input. as these sources do not make prognoses as far ahead as 2020, extrapolations were made for the purposes of the study.

[1] the ericsson mobility report, June 2013.

[2] the Broadband Bridge – Linking ict with climate change, report by the Broadband commission, march 2012.

[3] malmodin, J., moberg, Å., Lundén, d., finnveden, G., and Lövehagen, n. 2010. Greenhouse gas emissions and operational electricity use in the ict and entertainment & media sectors. Journal of industrial ecology. 14, 5, (October 2010), 770-790. dOi=http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2010.00278.x.


[5] itU, key telecom99 document from world telecom development conference 2002, istanbul, turkey, march 18-27, 2002.

[6] research case studies, http://www.ericsson.com/thecompany/sustainability_ corporateresponsibility/enabling_a_low_carbon_economy/research_and_standardization.

[7] Quantifying emissions right, http://www.ericsson.com/res/docs/whitepapers/ wp-quantifying-emissions.pdf

[8] connected buses in curitiba, ericsson 2012, http://www.ericsson.com/res/ thecompany/docs/corporate-responsibility/2011/curibita_final.pdf

[9] Gesi, “smart 2020 enabling the low-carbon economy in the information age”, http://gesi.org/portfolio/report/69, June 2008.

[10] Gesi, smarter2020: the role of ict in driving a sustainable future, http://gesi.org/portfolio/report/72, december 2012.

[11] infsO-ict-247733 earth (eU project). 2011. deliverable d2.1, economic and ecological impact of ict. https://bscw.ict-earth.eu/pub/bscw.cgi/d38532/earth_ wp2_d2.1_v2.pdf

[12] Zimmermann, J.p. 2009. end-use metering campaign in 400 households in sweden. assessment of the potential of electricity savings. enertech. eskilstuna: swedish energy agency.

[13] idc pc sales and forecast, 2010-2015. charles arthur for guardian.co.uk on monday 6th June 2011 16.48 Utc.http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2011/jun/06/ idc-pc-sales-growth-warns, accessed on december 6, 2011.

[14] display search, worldwide tV forecast by technology. Quarterly Global tV shipment and forecast report, november 2010. http://www.displaysearch.com/cps/rde/xchg/ displaysearch/hs.xsl/quarterly_global_tv_shipment_and_forecast_report.asp

[15] international telecommunication Union (itU), world telecommunication/ict indicators database 2010, 15th edition, 2011. http://www.itu.int/itU-d/ict/publications/world/world.html.

[16] koomey, J. G. 2011. Growth in data center electricity use 2005 to 2010. a report by analytics press, completed at the request of the new york times, http://www.analyticspress.com/datacenters.html, accessed in may 2012


ericsson aB

se-164 80 stockholm, swedeneaB-13:036469 Uen

© ericsson aB 2013

ericsson is a world-leading provider of communications technology and services. we are enabling the networked society with efficient real-time solutions that allow us all to study, work and live our lives more freely, in sustainable societies around the world.

Our offering comprises services, software and infrastructure within information and communications technology for telecom operators and other industries. today 40 percent of the world's mobile traffic goes through ericsson networks and we support customers' networks servicing more than 2.5 billion subscriptions.

we are more than 110,000 people working with customers in more than 180 countries. founded in 1876, ericsson is headquartered in stockholm, sweden. in 2012 the company's net sales were sek 227.8 billion (Usd 33.8 billion). ericsson is listed on nasdaQ OmX, stockholm and nasdaQ, new york stock exchanges.

www.ericsson.com www.ericsson.com/sustainability for more information please contact: [email protected]

© ericsson aB 2013 – all rights reserved.this document was originally produced in english and first published on June 17, 2013.

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