Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard August 20,...
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![Page 1: Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard August 20, 2015.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062518/56649e625503460f94b5d6ab/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Eric BoldtWarning Coordination MeteorologistNational Weather Service Los Angeles/OxnardAugust 20, 2015
EL NIÑO OUTLOOK 2015-16
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• Ocean continues to reflect sustained and strengthening El Niño conditions
• Greater than 90% chance of an El Niño this winter
• Forecasters unanimously favor a “strong” category
Latest ENSO* InformationAugust 2015
El Niño Advisory in effect
* ENSO stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation
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Normal Pacific Pattern
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El Niño Pattern
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Global Satellite on August 12, 2015
Clouds
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Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Last Four Weeks
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Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies – One Year
Latest weekly (Aug. 17) value of Niño 3.4
region is +2.0° C
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Sub-Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific (0-300m)
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Comparison of SSH - 1997, 2015
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Pacific Decadal Oscillation
- Cool phase since 1997- Warm phase past year
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ENSO Model Predictions
Neutral
Summer Winter
Weak to Moderate
Strong
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Classic El Niño Winter Impacts
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0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
21.59
18.9320.89
33.19
20.86
30.57
Past Strong (6) El Nino Rainfall in Los Angeles CA[includes 4-year prior rainfall]
Inch
es
?
1957-58 1965-66 1982-83 1991-92 1997-98 2015-16
53-54
61-62
68-69
87-88
11-12
1972-73
78-79
average
93-94
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• El Niño tilts the odds of above normal rainfall for southwest California this winter
• The strength of this El Niño is the most difficult prediction; favors a strong event
• One El Niño winter season will not end the drought (over 30” rainfall deficit in 4-years)
• Prior to the rainy season, we should be prepared for a dangerous wildfire season
Conclusions
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Thank You!805-988-6623 [email protected]
weather.gov/losangeles
@NWSLosAngeles weather.gov/losangeles NWSLosAngeles